Distribution of Developments in San Francisco's Housing Pipeline: Q2 2016

With new proposals for slightly fewer units of housing than finished construction last quarter, the overall pipeline of apartments and condos under development in San Francisco slipped by a hundred to 63,300.

In addition to 7,000 new units of housing that are currently under construction and should be ready for occupancy within the next year or two, there are now 11,100 net-new units for which building permits have either been issued, approved or requested, and another 27,400 units in projects that have already been approved but not yet permitted (which includes the majority of the 10,500 units by Candlestick, 7,800 units on Treasure Island and 5,680 units at Parkmerced, projects which have overall timelines measured in decades, not years).

And with proposals for another 17,800 units of housing currently under review by the City’s Planning Department, San Francisco’s Housing Pipeline totals 63,300 (including 6,800 below market rate units), down from a record 63,400 in the first quarter of the year but up from 54,600 at the same time last year, according to our accounting of Planning’s data.

At the same time, demand for the current crop of new construction condos in San Francisco has slowed, with sales down over 30 percent in the first half of 2016 and at least one index suggesting that, for the first time in years, prices have dropped on a year-over-year basis, while rents in the city have started to slip as well.

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Comments from “Plugged-In” Readers

  1. Posted by Ohmy

    The best timing in the last cycle for rental was 100 Van Ness. If I were a developer no way would I break ground now unless I had very very deep pockets.

    • Posted by Confused renter

      The market can only go up and up right? San Francisco is also special and laws of supply and demand don’t apply, right?

      • Posted by Sabbie

        I’m sure we will have no problem adding 60,000+ new jobs during this period. I heard there is a new startup that delivers handmade local mustard to your door once a month, and another one that like is the Uber of cat sitters.

        • Posted by cfb

          SF has already been adding more jobs than housing, which is one reason why we’re in a housing crisis…maybe you’ve been living under a rock, but housing is something SF needs badly. And I’m not sure why you’re complaining that there’s not enough jobs, in SF/the bay area of all places.

          • Posted by Sabbie

            No complaining, it is what it is. We’re having a boom right now, which is helping to create a housing crisis, and they are overbuilding in response, which will bring prices down in the bust. Same as it ever was. At the end of the day though, the homeownership level in America is back to the level of 1965, which shows deeper structural problems with the overall economy. Part of which is shown here: Landlord Nation: Boomers’ New Retirement Plan Is Millennials Paying Rent

        • Posted by BTinSF

          So I guess I need to get my cat an iPhone 7 as soon as they come out so she can order up some of the attention she thinks I don’t provide, right?

  2. Posted by SFRealist

    This is a long, long funnel

  3. Posted by The Milkshake of Despair

    That heat map looks like a blurred map of transit.

    • Posted by Frisco

      Maybe if you reversed the Sunset & Richmond coverage…

  4. Posted by RichardC

    What part of the pipeline does this map show, just building permits? I note that there’s barely a blip on Hunters Point, Treasure Island, or ParkMerced.

    • Posted by SocketSite

      The map shows the concentration of projects/activity, not total units.

      • Posted by curmudgeon

        And, as has been pointed out before, by omitting the total unit numbers the heat map is of dubious value. But it is pretty.

  5. Posted by alberto rossi

    I made a heatmap for net new units for the 2016 1st quarter pipeline. See namelink. It looks quite different.

    • Posted by SFRealist

      Very interesting. Is there a key? In other words, how many units is represented by the red dot on Treasure Island?

      • Posted by SocketSite

        Perhaps the 7,800 reported above? Versus the 10,000 unit red dot by Candlestick and the 5,000 unit red dot at Parkmerced. Again, as reported above.

    • Posted by curmudgeon

      Much better! Thank you!

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