The inventory of unsold homes listed for sale in San Francisco ticked up 5 percent to 539 over the past two weeks and is currently running 27 percent higher versus the same time last year.

At a more granular level, while the number of listed single-family homes on the market (199) is back to even versus the same time last year, the number of listed condos (340), which doesn’t include the vast majority of new construction units on the market in San Francisco, is now running 51 percent higher, year-over-year.

The overall inventory level in San Francisco is the highest since 2012 for this time of the year.

16 thoughts on “50 Percent More Condos on the Market in San Francisco”
  1. Keep it coming. SF needs more housing to support commercial growth.

    The Salesforce tower will add 1.4m sq ft of office space. BART and bay bridge are all already operating at overcapacity.

    1. Adding housing is only going to make congestion worse.

      Seeing more inventory come up naturally is the healthy way to go. The demand might be softening or many of these units wouldn’t have made it to the general market.

    2. Adding massive but very narrowly-segmented capacity that feeds on transient speculative demand during short-term asset bubbles is a brilliant way to implement long-term planning.

    3. You are a #ConfusedRenter. San Francisco does not need more housing to support commercial growth. San Francisco needs better transportation options to expand in the overall Bay Area for commuters. Like hgh states, adding more housing will make congestion worse causing this city to stop functioning at its capacity…streets, sewers, sidewalks, people…SF is reaching a breaking point. Have you stepped outside your office in the Financial District lately? Its smells like the sewer.

      1. I have no idea what you are talking about. I get to downtown via the muni just fine as my coworkers do.

      2. You act like San Francisco is the most densely populated city in the world. It’s not. Plenty of more densely populated cities function at a higher level than San Francisco does.

  2. Keep in mind,

    Most condos, in particular the ones under construction, are 0-1 bedroom units. A few are 2 bedroom units and very few are larger. For people wanting to start a family will be looking for a 2+ bedroom units and the supply in this segment remains flat (if not mildly falling).

    IMO, SF will more and more resemble NYC where young and single people live in Manhattan/Brooklyn while professionals with families commute for 1-2 hours from New Jersey or Connecticut.

    Therefore, house prices in the city will still remain high as most of the condos on the market do not provide a real alternatives for people looking for a 2+ bedroom unit. If you disagree with this conclusion, I’m happy to be convinced otherwise.

    1. Good point. Got me to look up the stats for SF by bedroom, 2010 vs 2014, per US Census ACS. This is the percentage change in count of housing units by bedroom 2010 to 2014 for all housing units, not just condos, in SF:

      105% No bedroom
      106% 1 bedroom
      99% 2 bedrooms
      98% 3 bedrooms
      106% 4 bedrooms
      120% 5 or more bedrooms

      The decline in the number of 2 and 3 bdrm units (~2300) is about 70% of the gain in the 4 and 5 bdrm units (~3200). Looks like the effects of 2 and 3 bdrm homes expanded into 4 and 5 bdrm at a faster rate than the building of new 2 and 3 bdrm, while most new are 0 and 1 bdrm. Even with this 2 and 3 bdrm units still make up 49% of all housing units in SF, while 0 and 1 bdrm make up 41%.

    2. Suburbs are perfect for families. Lower $/sqft, big back yards, safer streets, and better schools are just some of the other reasons new families move out of the city whether it’s NY or SF.

  3. An average of 3,600 new units planned for each year through 2022 and we already have an oversupply. At the same time, local companies are tightening their belts. Prices for new condos are ready to come down, possibly a hard landing.

    1. It’s not going to be a hard landing. Prices will settle, and still be high, because SF’s market has been high for decades, even when the market was soft. When they overbuilt in NY, they just turned them into rentals, gave away perks, a free month or two of rent, or $500 reductions, that’s it. But you’re right, there will be surplus,and this whole “build now , develop everything” stuff is misguided.

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