May 17, 2013
How A Noe Valley Trophy House And Neighborhood Median Grow
Having sold for $1,252,000 in April of 2007, the 992 square foot pre-war Noe Valley home at 739 27th Street resold to a contractor for $1,150,000 this past August.
With approved plans to officially "remodel and expand" the Westlake modern style home (moving the garage, adding a story, and building into the rear yard), according to a plugged-in tipster, the demolition commences today.
Also according to our tipster, the plan for 739 27th Street includes new view suites, an elevator, a wine cellar, and a three car garage with the developer shooting for a sale price of over $4 million when the "trophy house with a view" is finished.
And that's exactly how a median price can grow despite an apples-to-apples decline.
∙ San Francisco Home Sales Well Above Average In April [SocketSite]
First Published: May 17, 2013 11:00 AM
Comments from "Plugged In" Readers
Yup, and I recall some Noe boosters poo pooing the idea that pouring development cash into a neighborhood can raise price statistics. Noe is a nice place but not all of the median gains are due to its intrinsic characteristics.
Posted by: The Milkshake of Despair at May 17, 2013 12:52 PM
"Westlake modern" as in Westlake, Daly City? I've heard of Eastlake Victorian, but not this.
Posted by: extra at May 17, 2013 1:00 PM
This really is a moot point to the average buyer. Noe continues to get more expensive because of projects like this one...
Posted by: Willow at May 17, 2013 1:01 PM
This is a 37' wide lot with views. Even if developers were banned from participating in the market, a high-end home would be built here.
Posted by: noodle at May 17, 2013 1:20 PM
What developers are capturing in some part is the hidden equity of an unsatisfied demand. But some of it it also the underlying increase in value in the neighborhood. 2 years ago, few high end redos would fetch 3M. Today we're closing in on or even surpassing 4M.
This property, if done right (it has a very rare 37ft lot!) could fetch up to 5M I think. Then again, this market is so surreal that who knows where we will be in one year?
Posted by: lol at May 17, 2013 3:24 PM
I dont care for this section of Noe that is way up the hill. The views can be great but it isnt walkable and the weather is much worse than the flats. You pretty much have to drive everywhere.
I dont see the appeal, especially if you have a $4mm-$5mm budget. What am i missing? Alot of noe's appeal is the weather and walking.
Posted by: chad n. freud at May 17, 2013 5:06 PM
lol - No doubt that the neighborhood itself has gone upscale. The rise in the median is a combination of the increasing appeal plus the large development investment. Only the first factor is real appreciation but I doubt that all or even most buyers who look at the stats realize this. This mis-analysis might even be compounding the ghost appreciation.
Posted by: The Milkshake of Despair at May 17, 2013 5:19 PM
Demolition begins today? That doesn't jive with DBI's website. It looks like the 311 notice just ended. It doesn't have planning or building approval yet on the site permit let alone the actual engineering. Something is off with that.
Posted by: sparky*b at May 17, 2013 6:59 PM
As a long time Noe resident and homeowner, which I've been open about for a long time here, I too am often baffled by some of the crazy prices our homes have achieved.
I like Noe, but don't always "love" it. We don't always have good weather: the fog rolling over Diamond Heights can bring brutal wind to many of our streets and back yards.
We have little underground wiring at all, making many of the streets quite unattractive.
We lack for a lot more street trees and sidewalk greening.
There are a number of quite run down/marginal properties side by side with fully remodeled, high end homes. Hard to understand that not affecting prices, but it doesn't.
Having said that, I have no complaints about the price rises and constant growth of value.
But I'm not complaining, it just continues to surprise me.
Posted by: futurist at May 17, 2013 9:12 PM
Actually it will affect the mean by a fair amount, the median not so much so.
Posted by: Schaetzer at May 17, 2013 9:39 PM
739 27th is one of 4 of adjacent custom modern pre-war architect-designed view homes built between 1936 and 1939. The landscape clearing began today. The expansion and remodeling begins in about six weeks. This spot on the hill has such spectacular views that two fully remodeled adjacent properties sold recently for between 3 and 3.5 m.
Posted by: Pioneer at May 17, 2013 10:59 PM
Big remodels do affect the mean and the median. If developers have an incentive to do it, they are bidding up fixers and even average decent houses, making everything rise in unison.
Also, the potential for a large profit means there are more and more of these redos. This means less and less lower or average quality houses and higher quality on average. This changes the mean and the median.
Now as far as apples are concerned, there were a couple of examples of places in NV that almost didn't change since 2007. 2 things to consider: 1 - 2007 was the last top and saw a bit of irrational buying meaning possible outliers 2 - We're currently at roughly 10% over the last 2007 top in NV and sales at 2007 prices are still within the statistical possibility. It's not an exact science.
Also, this place sold in August. The market has gained a solid 15% since that.
I agree with futurist that a lot of this doesn't make much sense when you've been here a while and the crazy market is happening next door. There's sometimes so much fog movement in the upper blocks you'd think there's a brush fire up on Twin Peaks at 5PM. I am a few blocks down from my old upper Noe block and it's sooo much warmer. There's the Hoi Poloi crowding out Dolores Park, but it's more fun and much younger than the prop-13-locked elderly crowd.
Posted by: lol at May 18, 2013 12:01 AM
Twin Peaks is not sat above Upper Noe. Diamond Heights and Mt. Davidson are.
Posted by: Truth at May 19, 2013 7:35 AM
Families just about everywhere in the city drive to get groceries, go clothes shopping, go to swim lessons, go to soccer practice, drop the kids off at school. I'm not sure the folks who are negative on this location because of walkability are tuned into that reality. I live close to this one, and it's perhaps more walkable than folks think even for a family with young kids. Christopher playground, Douglass Dog Park, Douglass playground are easily accessible not to mention Walter Haas, 24th & Douglass, and really all of 24th street. You're definitely not restricted to driving. This place is also only 4 blocks from the big buses heading south, though I'm not sure the $4m buyer is taking the bus a lot. If you're driving south (and maybe your spouse works downtown), you can't beat the location either. As for the weather, it's foggier than the flats, but it's still great.
Posted by: day at May 19, 2013 9:31 AM
Twin Peaks is above the northern part of Noe as far as winds are concerned. The limit is around 27th.
Posted by: lol at May 20, 2013 9:30 AM
i like this area, but not for $4mm-$5mm.
I live down the street so would love for it to sell for $4mm+, but i am shocked things are going for so much here and raising my property values..
Posted by: chad n. freud at May 20, 2013 10:22 AM
No, that's wrong too albeit not what you said before. earlier you said upper Noe, which is counter intuitively the southern parts of Noe. (I'm noticing an inability to admit error on here from your direction that's borderline psychotic???) and no, 27th is past Clipper. Clearly, Clipper is where Twin Peaks stops looking over Noe geographically and stops breaking up western weather ...
Posted by: Truth at May 20, 2013 11:08 AM
Upper Noe like upper Noe Valley. Wow. Talk about splitting hair for nothing. Get a grip man.
Posted by: lol at May 20, 2013 12:52 PM
I can't even make out the convoluted and twisted sentences coming from Truth.
Posted by: futurist at May 20, 2013 3:15 PM
Not really, Upper Noe has specific meaning and you were wrong. For someone who posts probably the most on here your words are often not doing what you seem to intend. And yeah futuris, reading comprehension is a problem for you. You display that daily.
Posted by: Truth at May 20, 2013 5:57 PM
We all know that Truth is a newbie here.
And that matters as to content and credibility. Who says "is not sat above"? What kind of weird dialect is that?
Clipper has absolutely nothing to do with breaking up any weather. It's just a damn street. That whole thing about the wind is largely not true. The wind does what it wants to do.
Plus he can't even spell my name right.
Posted by: futurist at May 20, 2013 8:48 PM
Going back to NV's real estate...
One interesting metric is the Zillow price index fwiw. The 10-year comparison of NV and Pacific Heights shows how NV is catching up in popularity. The available housing pool is different, but the index shows a fundamental shift I think.
Posted by: lol at May 21, 2013 8:05 AM
"Upper Noe" is an invention by those who felt shut out by the North-of-25th political contingent. It's not really real, it was just a way for 30th St. to drag Leno to their neighborhood gripe sessions.
Posted by: EH at May 21, 2013 10:12 AM
Wrong, it's the name of the park which was built in 1950.
Posted by: Truth at May 21, 2013 3:10 PM