According to the November 2012 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA rose 1.4% from October 2012 to November 2012 and are up 12.7% year-over-year but remain 33.0% below a May 2006 peak.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.3% from October to November but are up 4.2% year-over-year, down 30.1% from a June 2006 peak.
In the 12 months ended in November, prices rose in 19 of the 20 cities and fell in New York. In 19 cities prices rose faster in the 12 months to November than in the 12 months to October; Cleveland prices rose at the same pace in both time periods. Phoenix led with the fastest price rise – up 22.8% in 12 months as it posted its seventh consecutive month of double-digit annual returns.
Winter is usually a weak period for housing which explains why we now see about half the cities with falling month-to-month prices compared to 20 out of 20 seeing rising prices last summer. The better annual price changes also point to seasonal weakness rather than a reversal in the housing market. Further evidence that the weakness is seasonal is seen in the seasonally adjusted figures: only New York saw prices fall on a seasonally adjusted basis while Cleveland was flat.
Regional patterns are shifting as well. The Southwest – Las Vegas and Phoenix – are staging a strong comeback with the Southeast — Miami and Tampa close behind. The sunbelt, which bore the brunt of the housing collapse, is back in a leadership position. California is also doing well while the northeast and industrial Midwest is lagging somewhat.
On a month-over-month basis, prices rose across all three San Francisco price tiers.
The bottom third (under $379,796 at the time of acquisition) rose 2.5% from October to November (up 17.7% YOY); the middle third rose 1.1% from October to November (up 13.7% YOY); and the top third (over $685,147 at the time of acquisition) ticked up 0.4% from October to November, up 7.7% year-over-year (versus 6.2% in October).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back to December 2000 levels, down 53% from an August 2006 peak; the middle third is back to March 2003 levels, down 34% from a May 2006 peak; and the top third remains at May 2004 levels, 20% below an August 2007 peak.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA ticked up 0.8% from October to November and are up 18.7% year-over-year but remain 23.7% below a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Home Prices Extend Gains According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index [Standard & Poor's]
∙ While The US Index Slips, San Francisco Home Prices Gain [SocketSite]