According to the May 2012 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA rose 3.9% from April to May 2012, down 38.1% from a May 2006 peak but up 0.6% year-over-year, the first year-over-year gain in eighteen (18) months.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values rose 2.3% from April to May, down 1.2% year-over-year, down 32.9% from a June 2006 peak.
Both Composites and 17 of the 20 MSAs saw increases in annual returns in May compared to April. Boston, Charlotte and Detroit were the three cities that saw their annual returns worsen in May, with annual rates of -0.1%, +0.9% and +0.6%, respectively. Atlanta continues to be the only city posting a double-digit negative annual return with -14.5%. However, this is an improvement over the -17.0% annual decline recorded in April 2012. All 20 cities and both Composites posted positive monthly returns.
Taking a closer look at the cities, Phoenix again posted the best annual return. Average home prices in that region were up 11.5% versus May 2011. It was one of the hardest hit cities in the collapse, and prices are still more than 50% below their June 2006 peak, but the past five months have been positive for that market.
Miami and Tampa are two other Sunbelt cities that were hard-hit in the downturn, but are now showing positive annual rates of change. Boston, Charlotte and Detroit, on the other hand, saw their annual rates of return deteriorate compared to April, even though prices rose over the month of May. Las Vegas posted both a positive monthly change in May and saw an improvement in its annual return; that said, the market is still more than 60% below it August 2006 peak.
On a month-over-month basis, prices rose across all three San Francisco price tiers.
The bottom third (under $323,621 at the time of acquisition) rose 2.4% from April to May (down 0.3% YOY); the middle third rose 3.1% from April to May (up 1.0% YOY); and the top third (over $582,976 at the time of acquisition) rose 3.0% from April to May, up 3.0% year-over-year (versus 3.1% in April).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back above May 2000 levels, down 59% from a peak in August 2006; the middle third is back to April 2002 levels, down 39% from a peak in May 2006; and the top third is back to March 2004 levels, down 23% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA rose 3.4% from April ’12 to May ’12, up 1.6% year-over-year, this first year-over-year gain in twenty (20) months.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Home Prices Continue to Rise in May 2012 [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Home/Condo Prices Show April Gains [SocketSite]