According to the March 2012 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA gained 1.0% from February 2012 to March 2012 but remain down 3.0% year-over-year, down 42.3% from a peak in May 2006.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell a nominal 0.1% from February to March, down 2.0% year-over-year, down 35.1% from a June 2006 peak.
“While there has been improvement in some regions, housing prices have not turned,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “This month’s report saw all three composites and five cities hit new lows. However, with last month’s report nine cities hit new lows. Further, about half as many cities, seven, experienced falling prices this month compared to 16 last time.”
“There are some better numbers: Only three cities – Atlanta, Chicago and Detroit – saw annual rates of change worsen in March. The other 17 cities and both composites saw improvement in this statistic, even though most are still showing a negative trend. Moreover, there are now seven cities – Charlotte, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Miami, Minneapolis and Phoenix – where the annual rates of change are positive. This is what we need for a sustained recovery; monthly increases coupled with improving annual rates of change. Once we see this on a broader level we will be able to say the market has turned around.”
On a month-over-month basis, single-family prices fell for the bottom third of San Francisco price tiers but gained for the top two thirds.
The bottom third (under $298,966 at the time of acquisition) fell a 0.8% from February to March (down 3.1% YOY); the middle third gained 0.6% from February to March (down 1.7% YOY); and the top third (over $536,757 at the time of acquisition) gained 1.5% from February to March, down 1.0% year-over-year (versus 1.7% in February).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have dropped to just above April 2000 levels having fallen 61% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has dropped to February 2002 levels having fallen 42% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has returned to November 2003 levels having fallen 28% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA jumped 4.2% from February ’11 to March ’12 but remain down 4.9% year-over-year, down 36.3% from a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Pace of Decline in Home Prices Moderates [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Home/Condo Prices Dropped In Feb [SocketSite]