According to the November 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.9% from October ’11 to November ’11, down 5.5% year-over-year (versus a 4.7% YoY drop in October), down 40.6% from a peak in May ’06.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 1.3% from October to November, down 3.6% year-over-year and down 32.9% from a June 2006 peak.
Despite continued low interest rates and better real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, home prices continue to fall. Weakness was seen as 19 of 20 cities saw average home prices decline in November over October…The only positive for the month was Phoenix, one of the hardest hit in recent years. Annual rates were little better as 18 cities and both Composites were negative.
Nationally, home prices are lower than a year ago. The 10-City Composite was down 3.6% and the 20-City was down 3.7% compared to November 2010. The trend is down and there are few, if any, signs in the numbers that a turning point is close at hand.
On a month-over-month basis, prices were up nominally for the bottom third of the three San Francisco price tiers but fell for both the middle and top.
The bottom third (under $314,749 at the time of acquisition) rose 0.2% from October to November (down 7.5% YOY); the middle third fell 1.6% from October to November (down 8.6% YOY); and the top third (over $586,246 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.0% from October to November, down 1.9% year-over-year (versus up 0.3% in October).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have dropped below May 2000 levels having fallen 60% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has dropped below March 2002 levels having fallen 42% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has dropped below February 2004 levels having fallen 26% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.2% from October ’11 to November ’11, down 7.5% year-over-year, down 35.8% from a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Home Prices Continued to Decline in November 2011 [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Homes Slip, Condos Dip In October [SocketSite]