1803 Castro Dinning
Six months ago a plugged-in “realist” raised the ire and eyebrows of a few by predicting the newly expanded and renovated Noe Valley home at 1803 Castro would sell “for about” $2.1 million having been listed for $2,600,000 ($765 per square foot).
Following a number of reductions and officially “off the market” according to the MLS, last week the sale of 1803 Castro quietly closed escrow with a reported contract price of $2,110,000 ($621 per square foot). Call it 18.9 percent under its original list price but within 0.5 percent of our reader’s prediction.
1803 Castro Returns Four Times Its 2005 Size (And Price) [SocketSite]

9 thoughts on “A Plugged-In Realist’s Prediction Missed It By That Much…”
  1. Yeah, a real fire sale. They’re giving ’em away.
    [Editor’s Note: That’s funny, but the developer might actually agree.]

  2. Seems about in line with a nice place just outside the “Mothers Milk” part of Noe*
    *heard someone recently refer to the mostly flat, carriage trafficked corridor between 23rd-26th (ie 3-6) and Dolores-Douglass (ie D-D)…or 36DD…as the “Mothers Milk” part of Noe :]

  3. If the listing agent had priced this more realistically at appx $2.0-2.2 million, then the place might have sold more quickly, and the seller wouldn’t have incurred the added loss of over half a year’s carrying cost.
    It might have even sold for “More than asking…”

  4. “[Editor’s Note: That’s funny, but the developer might actually agree.]”
    I don’t think the term “developer” fits here. They kept it for quite a while.

  5. “If the listing agent had priced this more realistically at appx $2.0-2.2 million, then the place might have sold more quickly, and the seller wouldn’t have incurred the added loss of over half a year’s carrying cost.”
    In cases like this one why assume that the pricing was realtor driven? They know the market far better than sellers do. This looks like seller-driven pricing all the way.

  6. [anon.ed] – Why do you think this was “seller driver pricing all the way?”
    Does the listing agent have a history of setting price reasonably or over-inflating?

  7. “raised the ire and eyebrows” — Really?
    “officially off the market …. quietly closed escrow” — pulled end of year on 12/29 and closed 3 weeks later and MLS listing properly updated.
    And did we ever verify that this was a developer flip or a family renovation that was lived in?
    Anyway, the embellished tone is tiresome. We get it.

  8. @DataDude,
    Kinda. I’ve seen some misses but that wasn’t what happened here. This property was a developer’s own primary residence. Did you see it? Its challenges at the initial price range were pretty obvious.

  9. @ Eddy,
    Yeah. Look at it the other way. We don’t see too many threads with “Whoa nellie get a load of how badly a plugged-in reader got this one wrong! bzzz, nope, wrong-o, kazoomy!” Now do we? Of course not. Because Spencer alone could have an entire blog devoted to threads like that.

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