According to the October 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.7% from September ’11 to October ’11, down 4.7% year-over-year (versus a 5.9% YoY drop in September), down 39.4% from a peak in May 2006.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 1.0% from September to October, down 3.0% year-over-year and down 31.9% from a June 2006 peak.
Atlanta and the Midwest are regions that really stand out in terms of recent relative weakness. Atlanta was down 5.0% over the month, after having fallen by 5.9% in September. It also has the weakest annual return, down 11.7%. Chicago, Cleveland Detroit and Minneapolis all posted monthly declines of 1.0% or more in October. These markets were some of the strongest during the spring/summer buying season. However, Detroit is the healthiest when viewed on an annual basis. It is up 2.5% versus October 2010. Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit and Las Vegas are four markets where average prices are below their January 2000 levels; and Atlanta and Las Vegas posted new lows in October.
On a month-over-month basis, prices fell for the bottom third of San Francisco MSA price tiers, pushed for the middle, and nominally increased for the top third.
The bottom third (under $319,767 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.9% from September to October (down 9.1% YOY); the middle third was unchanged from September to October (down 8.1% YOY); and the top third (over $599,697 at the time of acquisition) rose 0.3% from September to October, down 1.6% year-over-year (versus down 3.1% in September).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have dropped below May 2000 levels having fallen 60% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has dropped below March 2002 levels having fallen 41% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has dropped below February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 2.6% from September ’11 to October ’11, down 8.0% year-over-year, down 35.6% from a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Fourth Quarter Starts with Broad-based Declines [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Prices Fell In September [SocketSite]