According to the June 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA increased a nominal 0.4% from May ’11 to June ’11 but remain down 5.4% year-over-year (YOY), the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines and down 38.2% from a peak in May 2006.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values increased 0.8% from May to June but remain down 3.8% year-over-year, down 31.6% from a June 2006 peak.
“This month’s report showed mixed signals for recovery in home prices. No cities made new lows in June 2011, and the majority of cities are seeing improved annual rates. The National Index was up 3.6% from the 2011 first quarter, but down 5.9% compared to a year-ago,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices.
“Looking across the cities, eight bottomed in 2009 and have remained above their lows. These include all the California cities plus Dallas, Denver and Washington DC, all relatively strong markets. At the other extreme, those which set new lows in 2011 include the four Sunbelt cities – Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa – as well as the weakest of all, Detroit. These shifts suggest that we are back to regional housing markets, rather than a national housing market where everything rose and fell together.”
On a month-over-month basis, prices rose across all three price tiers in the San Francisco MSA for the second time in twelve months. On a year-over-year basis, however, values remained down across all three tiers.
The bottom third (under $317,976 at the time of acquisition) increased 0.5% from May to June (down 6.6% YOY); the middle third increased 0.6% from May to June (down 8.1% YOY); and the top third (over $594,261 at the time of acquisition) ticked up a nominal 0.2% from May to June but remain down 3.7% year-over-year.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are just below June 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is just below April 2002 levels having fallen 40% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third remains at February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.8% from May ’11 to June ’11, down 6.8% year-over-year versus a 5.4% drop in May and down 32.2% from a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Nationally, Home Prices Went Up in Q2 2011 [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ May S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Seasonality Or Solid Trend? [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco’s Condo “Double Dip” Is (Or Was) Here [SocketSite]