August 30, 2011
S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: SFH’s Tick Up, Condos Down In June
According to the June 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA increased a nominal 0.4% from May ’11 to June '11 but remain down 5.4% year-over-year (YOY), the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines and down 38.2% from a peak in May 2006.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values increased 0.8% from May to June but remain down 3.8% year-over-year, down 31.6% from a June 2006 peak.
"This month’s report showed mixed signals for recovery in home prices. No cities made new lows in June 2011, and the majority of cities are seeing improved annual rates. The National Index was up 3.6% from the 2011 first quarter, but down 5.9% compared to a year-ago," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices.
"Looking across the cities, eight bottomed in 2009 and have remained above their lows. These include all the California cities plus Dallas, Denver and Washington DC, all relatively strong markets. At the other extreme, those which set new lows in 2011 include the four Sunbelt cities – Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa – as well as the weakest of all, Detroit. These shifts suggest that we are back to regional housing markets, rather than a national housing market where everything rose and fell together."
On a month-over-month basis, prices rose across all three price tiers in the San Francisco MSA for the second time in twelve months. On a year-over-year basis, however, values remained down across all three tiers.
The bottom third (under $317,976 at the time of acquisition) increased 0.5% from May to June (down 6.6% YOY); the middle third increased 0.6% from May to June (down 8.1% YOY); and the top third (over $594,261 at the time of acquisition) ticked up a nominal 0.2% from May to June but remain down 3.7% year-over-year.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are just below June 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is just below April 2002 levels having fallen 40% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third remains at February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.8% from May ’11 to June '11, down 6.8% year-over-year versus a 5.4% drop in May and down 32.2% from a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Nationally, Home Prices Went Up in Q2 2011 [Standard & Poor's]
∙ May S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Seasonality Or Solid Trend? [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco’s Condo "Double Dip" Is (Or Was) Here [SocketSite]
First Published: August 30, 2011 6:30 AM
Comments from "Plugged In" Readers
What is the group's thoughts on the 2 bdrm condo market in SF city limits? Seems to be depressed a bit but not much supply on the market and still a good handful of buyers.
Posted by: Will at August 30, 2011 12:01 PM
Second! Nice to see Cali quoted as one of the relatively strong areas.
This has to be a record low case shiller comments month.
Does anyone know the current you inventory situation in sf? Always found that report useful but my requests for why it's no longer provided here have only resulted in my posts being deleted :(
Posted by: Repornaddict at August 30, 2011 11:23 PM
I agree with above poster; CS threads used to be some of the most contentious ones. My one comment is that the .4% month to month gain is about as middling as you can get for June. Strong years usually show much more robust gains (over 1%) and weak years are much lower May to June. The market could go either way. I still think we run out of steam quickly and hit new relative lows come January 2012.
Posted by: EBGuy at August 31, 2011 12:10 PM
well how often can you point at a chart and say "see, the bears were right" and really what fun is it when being "right" means continued financial pain for millions of people who don't really deserve it.
of course I am ignoring those that have spent years in foreclosure making zero payments while living in homes they can't afford but I am also assuming that brings its own kind of, living in uncertainty, hell.
Posted by: badlydrawnbear at August 31, 2011 1:14 PM