According to the May 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA increased 1.8% from April ’11 to May ’11, down 38.4% from a peak in May 2006 and down 5.4% year-over-year (YOY), the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines but versus a 5.5% year-over-year decline as recorded in April.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values increased a nominal 0.7% from April to May, down 32.1% from a June 2006 peak as values fell 3.6% year-over-year.
“We see some seasonal improvements with May’s data,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “This is a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are to be expected and were seen in 16 of the 20 cities. The exceptions where prices fell were Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa. However, 19 of 20 cities saw prices drop over the last 12 months. The concern is that much of the monthly gains are only seasonal.”
“While the monthly data were encouraging, most MSAs and both Composites fared poorly in annual terms. Nineteen of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites posted negative annual growth rates in May 2011. The 10-City Composite was down 3.6% and the 20-City Composite was down 4.5% in May 2011 versus May 2010. Minneapolis posted a double-digit decline in annual rate of 11.7%. The only beacon of hope was Washington D.C. with a +1.3% annual growth rate and a +2.4% monthly increase. We have now seen two consecutive months of generally improving prices; however, we might have a long way to go before we see a real recovery. Sustained increases in home prices over several months and better annual results need to be seen before we can confirm real estate market recovery.”
On a month-over-month basis, prices rose across all three price tiers in the San Francisco MSA for the first time in eleven months. On a year-over-year basis, however, values declined across all three tiers.
The bottom third (under $317,708 at the time of acquisition) increased 1.1% from April to May (down 6.3% YOY); the middle third increased 1.3% from April to May (down 8.6% YOY); and the top third (over $589,634 at the time of acquisition) ticked up 0.9% from April to May, down 4.5% on a year-over-year basis versus 3.9% the month before.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are just above May 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is just above March 2002 levels having fallen 40% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has returned to February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.5% from April ’11 to May ’11, down 5.4% year-over-year, down 31.6% from a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: April Seasonal Boost in Home Prices [Standard & Poor's]
∙ April S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Benefits From A “Seaonal” Kick [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco’s Condo “Double Dip” Is (Or Was) Here [SocketSite]