March 2, 2011
"San Francisco" Prestige Index Up 1.5% In Fourth Quarter
The First Republic Prestige Home Index for "San Francisco" homes valued at more than $1 million ticked up 1.5 percent from the third to fourth quarter of 2010, up 3.6 percent on a year-over-year basis, down 15.6 percent from a third quarter 2007 peak, and between fourth quarter 2004 and first quarter 2005 levels.
As always, keep in mind that the "San Francisco" index includes "a cross-section of luxury homes in Alamo, Atherton, Belvedere, Danville, Healdsburg, Hillsborough, Lafayette, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Mill Valley, Moraga, Orinda, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Portola Valley, Ross, St. Helena, San Francisco, Saratoga, Sonoma, Tiburon and Woodside."
∙ First Republic Prestige Home Index: San Francisco [firstrepublic.com]
First Published: March 2, 2011 10:45 AM
Comments from "Plugged In" Readers
I don't know how I got that 15.6% down from peak so spectacularly wrong in the other thread. Maybe I punched in the wrong number when calculating. Here's the other part of my comment that might be relevant here.
In real terms, the Prestige Index for Q4 of 2010 is about 0.5% above the Q1 and Q2 2003 trough and about 1% above the Q1 of 2002 trough when adjusted for inflation by CPI.
Posted by: sfrenegade at March 2, 2011 10:48 AM
As always, keep in mind that the "San Francisco" index includes...
Real San Francisco?
Posted by: justme at March 2, 2011 11:56 AM
"Real San Francisco? "
If you read the criteria, it's prime even for San Francisco.
Posted by: sfrenegade at March 2, 2011 1:17 PM
Next time it is sunny, as it was Monday, take a walk in Pacific and Presidio Hts from Fillmore west. On every block there are two or three houses being fixed up, with signs outside, some big jobs, some small.
There are a lot of people who are betting on this area, owners and flippers alike.
And for those interested, note that gray, darker gray, and darkest gray are already looking dated.
The bears on socketside may be wrong.
Posted by: Conifer at March 2, 2011 2:29 PM
I've talked for some time about the Brazilification of America, which continues unabated.
thus, although I don't predict it, going forward it would not be surprising to see continued relative strength in uber prime markets while normal markets sputter.
doesn't mean that all of SF will do well, but uber prime neighborhoods might.
many of the moneyed elite are doing well during this (or because of this) downturn. their balance sheets are being bolstered by the re-emerging equity and commodity bubble since it's mainly the rich that are the ones that own the stocks and bonds and commodities that are being pumped by the Fed.
and they have been told by the Fed and our political leaders that risk is dead.
thus, they can speculate without fear, and shovel profits into trophy assets like RE.
(losses go to the taxpayers)
the average joe is seeing costs surge and is being spurned/ignored (or attacked even) by our leaders, so may not be able to put more money towards housing. but $4-5 gas doesn't affect the moeneyed elite, nor does rapid rise in food prices. so their increased costs are negligible.
The class war continues. Too bad most people don't even see it
upper end housing will take a hit if/when the stock/commodity echo bubble takes a hit.
but with oil, silver, and gold hitting multi-year highs every day, not to mention equities near their multi year highs, that day is not yet come.
this is one thing where anon.ed and I totally agree. the rich are not beholden to the same economics that the plebes are. anon.ed and I just disagree as to the numbers of people in the "rich" category and their impact to the surrounding population.
(disclosure for the umpteenth time: please don't invest based on my ramblings. there is obviously a commodity/equities echo bubble, but it could pop at any time and many people will lose their butts. I am constantly changing my exposures in the above fields. As I said before I suspect a sea change this spring and thus lightened up on some of my positions, increased others, and shunted profits to RE).
Posted by: ex SF-er at March 2, 2011 2:31 PM
disclosure for the umpteenth time: please don't invest based on my ramblings
I spend a lot of time here, but I honestly have no idea where you find the time or energy to write up so much. It's staggering.
Posted by: eddy at March 2, 2011 2:50 PM
^ But I'm glad you do, Ex-SFer
Posted by: curmudgeon at March 2, 2011 3:10 PM
This prestige index is out again if anyone cares. Shows bay area down 3.1 yoy
Posted by: Eddy at February 22, 2012 8:37 AM