January 6, 2011

One Rincon Hill '08's Appear To Have Slipped More (Not Less) In 2010

425 1st Street #4408 View

As we wrote this past June:

Hours after our noting the bank-owned listing for 425 1st Street #3908 at $695,000, the sales office at One Rincon Hill reduced the list price for 425 1st Street #4308 from $780,000 to $749,000 ($992 per square foot).
Today, the sale of 425 1st Street #4408 closed escrow with a reported contract price of $690,000 ($914 per square foot), the 755 square foot view one-bedroom had most recently been listed by the sales office for $785,000.
Considering the sale office sold #3908 for $855,000 in June 2008 ($1,132 per square), and taking into account a five floor higher premium, we’ll call it a 20-25 percent drop in value for #4408 over the past two years.
And the argument that $695,000 for #3908 is "cheap" simply because #4308 is listed for $780,000 $749,000? Not so strong.

The sale of One Rincon Hill #4308 ended up selling this past July with a reported contract price of $687,000 ($909 per square) while the sale of #3908 ended up closing escrow this past September with a recorded contract price of $660,000 ($874 per square foot four floors below), a 23 percent drop in value from June 2008.

Seven days ago the sales office sold 425 1st Street #4608 for a reported contract price of $680,000 ($901 per square), 1 percent under the contract prices of #4308 and #4408 six and seven months ago respectively.

Interesting Indeed As One Rincon Hill #4308 Falls Out Of Escrow [SocketSite]
Additional '08 Stack (And Year) Perspective From One Rincon Hill [SocketSite]
The First Listed Foreclosure At 425 First (One Rincon Hill) [SocketSite]

First Published: January 6, 2011 9:15 AM

Comments from "Plugged In" Readers

While hundreds of thousands of dollars have already gone poof on some of these resales, I do hope the current vintage of buyers are doing so for "consumption" living rather than investment or trade purposes.

It may be a matter of style, but even at the 20-30% discount they're selling at from a few short years ago, even these valuations seem tenuous given the location, neighborhood, parking etc even with impressive views.

And I think you need a minimun five year hold for any appreciation to cover just the transaction costs.

Posted by: AMiR at January 6, 2011 9:23 PM

Wow, one post after 24 hrs. I remember when One Rincon used to generate lots of posts in the past. I agree with AMiR. The valuations at this place are still ridiculous. I'm impressed with the developers here and at the Millennium for holding out so long on pricing. When are they going to concede defeat and reduce prices like Infinity did to generate sales?

Posted by: screendump at January 7, 2011 10:12 AM

yeah, even the super agent didn't show up.

my agent sent me the following in his news letter:

"Happy New Year! Already, the outlook for real estate is looking brighter than last year. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says “The market is recovering and we should trend up to a healthy, sustainable level in 2011.”
“All the indicator trends are pointing to a gradual housing recovery,” Yun said. “Home price prospects will vary depending largely upon local job market conditions. The national median home price, however, is expected to remain stable even with a continuing flow of distressed properties coming onto the market just as long as there is a steady demand of financially healthy home buyers.”

Hopefully many units will change hands in these hi-rises this year and provide an indicator of the market.

Posted by: Your equity will be assimilated. at January 7, 2011 10:41 AM

Does anyone know how many one-bedroom and two-bedroom units are left at One Rincon? Last I heard they were at 88% sold, but was wondering if that figure has changed.

Posted by: elle at January 13, 2011 11:10 AM

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