According to the January 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.6% from December ’09 to January ’10, up 9.0% year-over-year for the third year-over-year gain since September 2006 but down 37.9% from a peak in May 2006.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell a nominal 0.2% from December to January (the third consecutive slide) and remain down 30.2% from a peak in June 2006 (flat year-over-year).
Los Angeles and San Diego showed slight improvements in actual index levels from the previous month to the current month. All other metros and the two composites showed a slight drop from their December 2009 levels. Of that, four markets – Charlotte, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa – posted new index lows as measured by the current housing cycle where, depending on the market, we saw peaks in 2006 and 2007. The peak-to-current declines for these MSAs are -13.8%, -55.8%, -24.6% and -42.0%, respectively.
On a relative basis, Washington DC, Los Angeles and New York have held up the most, with each of those markets still 70% above their January 2000 levels. Las Vegas, which once stood 135% above its January 2000 level, is now showing price increases about 4% above that same level. Detroit remains that one market whose average value is below 2000, approximately 28% below that value.
On a month-over-month basis, San Francisco MSA single-family home prices rose for the bottom price tier but fell across the middle and top tiers.
The bottom third (under $324,055 at the time of acquisition) gained 0.6% from December to January (up 1.9% YOY); the middle third fell 1.2% from December to January (up 3.6% YOY); and the top third (over $593,499 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.9% from December to January (flat YOY).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back to September 2000 levels having fallen 57% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around June 2002 levels having fallen 36% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third slipped back to February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.8% from December ’09 to January ’10, down 1.4% on a year-over-year basis and down 28.7% from an December 2005 high.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Home Prices in the New Year Continue the Trend Set in Late 2009 [
∙ December Case-Shiller Index: Bottom Tier Up, Nominal Slips At Top [SocketSite]