53 Wilder #406
As we wrote in October:

A few months after the 15-unit Glen Park Market Place premiered, 53 Wilder Street #406 closed escrow for $855,000 (September 2006). It’s two bedrooms, two baths and 1,249 square feet. And it’s back on the market and asking $839,000 (2% under its 2006 price).

Interestingly enough, a two bedroom, two bath and 1,279 square foot unit next-door (53 Wilder Street #405) sold for $871,000 this past April. It had been purchased for $810,000 in November 2006.

Yesterday the sale of 53 Wilder Street #406 closed escrow with a reported contract price of $819,220. That’s 4.2% under its 2006 value and versus the 7.5% gain since 2006 that 53 Wilder #405 realized just eight months ago.
Still Defying Gravity At Glen Park Market Place? [SocketSite]
Glen Park Market Place: Range Of Prices And BMR Deadline [SocketSite]

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Comments from “Plugged-In” Readers

  1. Posted by anonn

    These minor price fluctuations aren’t as stark or as interesting as the overall trend in GP. Prior to 2007 or so, the only condos that sniffed 800K were much larger Fairmount Heights condos with massive city views.

  2. Posted by Willow

    No major surprises here. I thought an at asking price would be challenging in this market so 4.2% under the 2006 purchase price is a reasonable income… (I’m not inviting rent versus buy analysis either! I’m sure the seller could have rented an equivalent property for less money…

  3. Posted by OneEyedMan

    anonn –
    So now you’re going macro? You were always the big preacher of micro. These next door units declining 4% in price (based on sf) says nothing?

  4. Posted by anonn

    You’d call qualifying the performance of certain areas within Glen Park, “macro”? Huh.
    Did I say it “says nothing”?
    To me it’s more remarkable that we’re even discussing smallish condos in GP village in the ~800K range. Before they had to be more oriented toward Noe Valley, and with huge views.

  5. Posted by diemos

    Indeed. Of all the areas of SF that could have been expected to hold out I wouldn’t have expected Bernal, the mission and glen park to be among them.

  6. Posted by Jason

    Diemos: speaking as a somewhat more recent SF transplant (early ’08), the neighborhoods you mention (along with Noe and Castro) seem like the most interesting and vibrant parts of the city right now. This is no knock on the northern nabes; rather I think that those of us carpetbaggers who arrived more recently see the value in these areas and don’t understand why long-time SF residents view them as lesser.
    I should note I have no skin in the game–I’m a renter!–but I am living quite happily on this side of town.

  7. Posted by Schlub

    Word, Jason.

  8. Posted by NoeValleyJim

    Down 4.2%? D5 is collapsing, just like the bears told us it would!

  9. Posted by ex SF-er

    don’t understand why long-time SF residents view them as lesser.
    hard to change attitudes. In the past these nabes were working class or middle class neighborhoods. hard to envision them as rich enclaves. old timers have seen this stuff before: a neighborhood gentrifies and then falls back into its former roots. also, neighborhoods change over time due to the mix of the residents.
    If the above nabes can keep their current status through a downturn or two then people’s minds will change.
    Imagine if you will if 10-15 years from now there is another boom and people said “Wow, Bayview is a hot neighborhood. It’s nothing like boring old stuffy Noe.” would you agree right away?
    (in fact, that is exactly what a lot of people are saying about SouthBeach right now).
    also: if Noe stays “primo” then over time it’ll be interesting to see what happens to it. Right now, all the “old money” is up in the northern nabes, so they’re a little more sedate. What happens as all the googleaires in Noe age? will noe stay as hip when the people living there are 55 as opposed to 35? or will it age into a nabe like Nob Hill?
    or will Noe be a neighborhood where people buy when they are a newly minted tech richie and then move on when they age to be replaced by another newly mented techer, keeping it “young” and “hip”?

  10. Posted by Dan

    Noe has been pretty sedate for years. It is a fashionable neighborhood, to be sure, but I wouldn’t call it “young” and “hip.” Most homeowners in Noe are not Google millionaires– and most homeowners are middle-aged or older. Most of the “young” and “hip” in Noe, Bernal, the Mission, Potrero Hill, Glen Park, and the Castro are renters, because it takes time (and often two incomes) to afford a house. Most homeowners stay in these neighborhoods for a long time– sometimes until they have school-aged kids and then want or need a bigger house or suburban schools.

  11. Posted by anonn

    South Beach sprang from the womb a gentrified baby. Noe has already outlasted a downturn. Bernal, GP and the Mission continue to gentrify during a downturn. But yes, agreed on the attitudes are tough to change part. Yours is apparently an example of one, ex-SFer.

  12. Posted by Dan

    Noe and at least parts of Bernal and Glen Park have remained gentrified through 2 downturns, in the early ’90’s and the dot com bust. The Mission’s gentrification in the late ’90’s survived large exodus of the dot com bust. It is hard to view the changes in these neighborhoods as ephemeral.
    Check out the map of blighted neighborhoods in SF in 1945. Back then, parts of Cow Hollow, Telegraph Hill, and Russian Hill were blighted, too!
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/walkingsf/4087150558/sizes/l/

  13. Posted by Zig

    Its all about access to the jobs in the south and to be away from public housing projects. Noe is perfect for this
    This isn’t just an SF gentification phenomena either. I had all sorts of friends from Burlingame who had bluecollar fathers, many from Ireland. I know a retired SFwater dept worker who bought a house in Hillsbough in the the early 1980’s
    My father was a blue collar worker and bought a nice 3/2 in a middle class neighborhood in San Mateo. The street is now like the United Nations of high tech excecutives, rich foreigners with no visable means of income and a few doctors. I can only think of one other family on the street that are locals
    I can’t even imagine what the neighborhoods like Aragon or Hillsborough are like where the doctors used to live

  14. Posted by Zig

    My wife isn’t into it but I would buy a house on Shotwell or Folsom between about 20th and 23rd without hesitation right now if the price was right
    I can’t see why this area isn’t prime for more gentrification

  15. Posted by Zagged

    We’ve been trying to buy in Glen Park for years (we rent here right now). We gave up and got something nicer in Noe Valley for the same price we almost spent on a place up near the Arbor.
    Here’s a map of all SF HUD housing. There isn’t a large project in Glen Park, but there is a good sized cluster of smaller units (as the page points out):
    http://ptstatic.appspot.com/sanfrancisco-hud-projects.html
    The units aren’t bad (and actually nice), but I can’t see purchasing a house for > $1.1 million right across the street.
    It also might create an upper bounds for the gentrification of the area. These blocks of houses will not be going on the open market and upgraded.

  16. Posted by Willow

    Zagged / JimBobJones: Thanks for the links. Yes those places do exist but what % are they of the overall Glen Park stock of housing? They also are geographically located in relatively small area on the border of Diamond Heights. In fact, I would say that this would impact the areas around Diamond Heights Safeway more so than say for instance Chenery St.
    On Noe…there’s no way it’s going to regress. It’s status as a prime SF neighborhood is a done deal. GP and Bernal are very unlikely to unravel too. I’d like to understand the scenario(s) where these neighborhoods take a turn for the worse. I just don’t see it happening.

  17. Posted by curmudgeon

    Jim Bob’s map is a little misleading if you are thinking “projects”, a lot of them are elderly housing. Yes, still HUD, but a completely different impact.

  18. Posted by ZIG

    If you are living in Glen Park you are much more likley to get robbed by young people from the South and eastern neighborhoods using the freeway than the few people living in subsidized housing. Its a pretty accessible affluent hood
    I imagine in the old days local guys in Glen Park sort of regulated their own area. The newly emasculated Glen Park male not so much

  19. Posted by anonn

    I imagine in the old days local guys in Glen Park sort of regulated their own area. The newly emasculated Glen Park male not so much
    Ha. Just because most of the hilljack biker loser set — that particularly Californian brand of redneck — have vacated Bernal and GP doesn’t make us a bunch of wimps over here.

  20. Posted by RenterAgain

    Noe Valley hip?
    Ex-SFer’s been out of
    the City too long

  21. Posted by Dan

    “…doesn’t make us a bunch of wimps over here.”
    Yeah, don’t mess with us, or we’ll raise hell…on our blogs.

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