As we wrote in January:
The Marcus & Millichap rental outlook for 2009 in San Francisco: rents up 3.3% on 400 new units in professionally managed apartment buildings with at least 20 units.
Our comment (at the risking of stealing a bit of our own outlook thunder): we believe Marcus & Millichap is significantly underestimating both the number and impact of “shadow” market units for rent in San Francisco (which they deem to be “barely a factor”) as well as the effective number of new units for rent that will hit the market in 2009.
A new report from Marcus & Millichap, however, now calls for a 8.9% drop in residential rents in San Francisco by the end of the year, a dramatic 12.2 point swing in their forecast over the past six months. Our outlook and original rebuttal haven’t changed.
UPDATE: A plugged-in reader adds:
There have been more drastic decreases in SOMA. I wanted to move there last year but asking rents were north of 3500 for 2bd/2ba in most complexes (avalon, bayside, archstone). I just rented the same 2bd/2ba for 2700 (2800 with parking) with a better layout and more sq footage.
That’s a 23% drop (and some good shopping) for “somaboy,” and a tough trend in terms of (E)arnings for investors who paid a high (P)rice based on wildly different expectations.
∙ Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Rental Outlook (And Quick Rebuttal) [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]