A plugged-in reader provides the early 2009 count and year-over-year six year history for February sales of single-family homes, condos and TICs in San Francisco.
Expect the final count for 2009 to increase by 15-25 units as records are updated (yielding total listed sales of between 189-199 units), but accounting for even an additional 25 closings it appears that sales volume in San Francisco has dropped at least 36% on a year-over-year basis (versus an 18% drop from 2007 to 2008), and that we’ll close out this past February with sales volume down almost 50% from five years before.
At the same time, inventory of listed and available single-family homes, condos and TICs is up 24% on a year-over-year basis (versus a 42% increase from 2007 to 2008) and up 66% over the past three.
As we noted last month, January typically marks the seasonal low point for sales activity and sales counts should climb over the next five months at a faster pace than inventory.
∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 3/02/09 [SocketSite]
∙ Early January Listed Sales Results For San Francisco: Down 34% [SocketSite]
Seems like econ 101 professors have a readily available current event here for supply vs. demand discussions.
We saw a similar trend for the January datapoints last month. I wonder whether this stark trend is so visible in Jan/Feb because the numbers are normally low and any change really shows up. We will know once April/May numbers are out.
It would be nice if we can get this broken out by tiers and by SFH/condo/tic.
St. Francis Woods is holding up. Santa Ana went for asking and Toboni’s big place sold the first day.
One or two houses selling in a particular neighborhood is irrelevant when talking about city wide trends.
I would like to see this chart in the format it wants to be in, and that is Lite Brite TM.
Who was it that predicted a “check-mark” price recovery curve (as opposed to U, L, V, or W)? Perhaps they should have predicted a “check-mark” inventory curve.
lol@litebright.
lol. I liked that one too 🙂
I’m not sure which Santa Ana listing is mentioned above, but 5 Santa Ana was reduced first and then sold for less than reduced asking price. The beautiful Toboni listing established that a really unique and beautifully finished place in a great location will sell for $545/sq. ft. As far as I can tell the sale has not concluded yet.
It sure looks like fluff was right. Prices are set to explode and reach new highs once the spring open house season gets under way.
Wow, this is scary. So glad I elected to rent a year and a half ago when I almost bought a place. As a 1st time home buyer, I’d be totally wiped out now.
Anyone know if recent sales prices are no longer public info? The place I almost bought sold several weeks ago, and I’m curious as to what it went for. SFGate doesn’t seem to post recent home sales anymore? Where can I find it out – or can I not?
phatty,
Have you tried propertyshark.com? 8 free property lookups per day. They give some info like sale prices, property tax, loan amounts. Do not try and make your own deductions though, things can be trickier than the simple info you see. But it’s a good accessible first step.
phatty,
Sfgate online does post them, with a lag, updated on Mondays. Check here:
http://www.sfgate.com/webdb/homesales
Phatty…
sfgate.com is publishing sales price. They just relocated that part and changed its look. Scroll halfway down their real estate page. They are giving more information then they used to give. In matter fact, they are including last sale in the information. I was stunned to notice that almost all recent sales that were purchased between 2004-07 sold for less than 2004 prices (I’d estimate 80% of the properties, off-hand).
It is a U. But, it is the U with a really long middle piece. Dr. Doom is predicting it to be a 36 month recession with unemployment reaching 10% sometime next year. It is the worst contraction since WWII started (meaning, the worst contraction since the Great Depression).
Only 10% unemployment?
I thought we agreed that it will be Great Depression II with 30% unemployment rate.
Unemployment in CA was 10.1% in January.
You might want to google u6 and u3 to find out how the definition of “unemployed” has changed over time.
The Great Depression was 25% unemployment rate so I would say 20% unemployment rate would be Great Depression Part II. We have not even hit 1980s (11%) unemployment rate so until then, we’re not in a severe recession (although Calif is getting rather close).
Wish there is a data out there for single family home sales for SF north of 280. That’ll tell the true tale of SF real estate market. Currently Bayview’s single family home foreclosure sales are dragging the home average prices down.
@juju
The best comparison based on unemployment calculations would be using U6 as stated by Diemos. Currently it’s at 14.5% and getting worse by the week. If I recall correctly it was less than 12% four months ago.
Regarding average prices, they’re generally not very meaningful. That’s why you’ll see mean prices posted on this site. Granted, mix has caused the mean to drop more than what is indicated by all market tiers, but it also clearly indicates a downward movement in the upper tiers based on the lack of movable high-end properties.
With respect to GDI and GDII, consider this: Household debt has only reached 100% of GDP twice in US history. 1929 and 2007.
@juju
correction on ‘mean’. I meant ‘median’.
Both mean and median are subject to distortions. The best figure is a same sales repeat index which tells you how much the same property is worth from one year to another. This is like the “apples” on this site.
Wow–that data screams a 40% further price decline.
Folks want to hold on to those prices…
Economix 101: When sales fall, and inventory goes up, that means what boys and girls?
I’ve got a question I’m hoping someone can answer. We got our notification of 2009-2010 assessed value for our condo, and they actually bumped the value 2% from what we paid last year. Given the current real estate climate I can’t imaging that’s correct.
In order to contest the assessed value, I need to fill out a form where I have to cite similar properties that were sold in my Corona Heights neighborhood before March 31, 2009. I can find sales from the most recent month, but not that far back – does anyone know where I can find this data?
Thank you for the help!