February 3, 2009
The Scoop On Strata At Mission Bay, Its Environs And Rents
I did a hard hat tour of Strata SF this weekend. I think the building itself is ok. A little bland but I have seen worse. The interior halls look nice....well [lit] and a good color scheme. The views in the distance are nice, the views of the surrounding lots (aka lots of dirt and construction areas) not as nice. First move ins are scheduled for March 1st but they have a long way to go in 30 days to make this a reality. 4th street should be open to traffic in 6 months (says the sales center). Rents seemed high for this undeveloped neighborhood (1/1 650 sqft starting for around $2,300).
I will say looking back at north mission bay from the Strata I was impressed with the look of that neighborhood. The new avalon building and arterra behind the smaller developments closer to the canal really worked well together. At least from that vantage point I think they have done a superb job of building a nice looking community.
With respect to area rents, over on the other side of Mission Creek Edgewater Apartments is advertising a 535 square foot one-bedroom for $2,155 per month, Avalon at Mission Bay has a 700 square foot one-bedroom for $2,160 (previously from $2,200), and over at One Rincon Hill there’s a 710 square foot one-bedroom on the 19th floor asking $2,400.
UPDATE: A plugged-in reader catches the One Rincon Hill fine print ($2,400 is the three-month "teaser" rate, asking $2,650 thereafter), but we will note a few other One Rincon Hill one-bedrooms asking $2,600 and at least one that includes parking.
∙ Coming Soon: "Strata At Mission Bay" (A.K.A. 555 Mission Rock) [SocketSite]
∙ An Overview Of Mission Bay [SocketSite]
∙ Why You Should Care About All Those New Developments (Part I) [SocketSite]
∙ Avalon At Mission Bay Phase III (240 Berry): True To Design [SocketSite]
∙ More Mission Bay Stripping: Arterra And Mission Creek Sports Courts [SocketSite]
∙ Edgewater Apartments (355 Berry): An Overview And Pricing [SocketSite]
∙ $2400 / 1br - 1Ba Luxury Condo at One Rincon w/ Views [Craigslist]
First Published: February 3, 2009 7:30 AM
Comments from "Plugged In" Readers
I have been complaining to the city traffic engineer regarding some parking issues in the nabe. Based on his response (and I got a personal response to my letter not a form), I would also expect 4th St to be open to traffic in about 6 months.
I am interested to see how they handle the traffic flow in the fully built neighborhood. Right now 4th st is entirely dead through UCSF as it's only 1 block long. It's like many of the streets that run through the Berkeley campus- virtually dead except for a few delivery vehicles and a UCSF shuttle or two, which makes the mission bay campus seem very pedestrian and peaceful, unlike parnassus with Parnassus Ave straight down the middle. The long term Mission Bay campus plan doesn't call for any retail to face 4th (though there will be retail north of campus), so I would hope they put a bunch of stop signs and lights down 4th to discourage through traffic, then fix the irritating timing on 3rd to encourage people to use it instead.
Posted by: rr at February 3, 2009 8:57 AM
FYI. The $2400 rent at One Rincon is just a teaser rate to get you into the front door - this rate is good for either two or three months, depending on when you begin renting it. The actual rent is $2650 per month. Still, not a bad rental rate but not $2400 - I would say the ad is a little misleading.
[Editor's Note: Good catch (and see UPDATE above).]
Posted by: alan at February 3, 2009 9:04 AM
With Avalon, Strata and several large condo projects going rental and the economy softening I cannot see rents holding above $3 a sqft. I think rents at 555 and Avalon will
end up in the mid $2 range.
Posted by: jimmythekid at February 3, 2009 9:17 AM
I agree with rr. The view back across Mission Creek is really nice. It'll be interesting to see where the rents settle.
Also note that they just recently ripped up the old pavement sidewalks along 3rd street and Channel street. This signals they are in the process of putting in the nice new sidewalks with trees like the rest of streets down there.
As for the 4th street access from Channel street (and 4th/King), that was just dirt a month ago. They have laid the concrete base, curbs, and the last stretch of sidewalk very recently. I wouldn't be surprised if they opened it before six months are up (although there are probably some planning issues that will hold it back).
Posted by: SFReo at February 3, 2009 9:33 AM
@ jimmythekid: rents are definitely inching down slowly, maybe down 10-15% from recent peak at this point. But seems to me they're still around $3.50 per square foot for nicer places here in Soma and South Beach, +/-10%.
A drop to the mid $2 range, as you predict, would be a roughly 30% hit from current levels, or a 40% peak-to-trough drop. I'm not saying it can't happen, it just seems a little extreme. That would imply 1-bedrooms that rented for $2,500/month last year will be going for $1,500/month soon. Bad news for landlords if you're right...
Posted by: Dude at February 3, 2009 9:39 AM
Anecdotal evidence only, but doing a search on Craigslist for 1br+ rentals < $2000 was averaging about 550 entries pre-Lehman blowup.
Now its routinely averaging over 950 entries.
Make of it what you will.
Posted by: wanker at February 3, 2009 12:37 PM
With the Strata, Avalon, Argenta, Artani,and several large to mid size developments in the south east part of the city going rental. (Not to mention the individual units being rented by speculative condo buyers bets gone bad).
Over a thousand units in the next 12 or so months, all being released into a faltering economy. Rents in the so called "Life style" segment are headed for a steep correction.
Posted by: jimmythekid at February 4, 2009 4:54 PM