Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco remained flat over the past two weeks but is running 18.0% higher on a year-over-year basis.
The number of listings that have undergone at least one price reduction is now up over 66% on a year-over-year basis, a new record on both an absolute and percentage basis (currently 40.0% of all listings versus 28.7% at the same time in 2007 and 28.5% in 2006).
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 10/13/08 [SocketSite]
Would love to see this broken out by SFH/Condo/TIC. Seems to me that TICs are having a very tough time in this market. Would be curious to know if there’s an 18% bump across the board of if it’s up higher in “marginal” (ie. TIC) inventory…
[Editor’s Note: Single family inventory is up 3% (reductions up 34%), Condo/TIC inventory is up 30% (reductions up 94%), and “marginal” inventory is not to blame.]
And yet TIC’s have been all but immune to foreclosures. If anything, I’d think that should be reassuring to potential buyers.
Any breakdown on high-end vs. low(er)-end? From what I can glean from various sources, it looks like about 50 total SFRs and condo/TICs were sold in October with a price over $1 million. Redfin indicates about 550 units (inc. contingent) are on the market at over $1 million. That would indicate around 11 months of inventory — very high. Unless I’m figuring something wrong or my numbers are off (both quite likely), it looks like the downturn is disproportionately smacking the higher-end segment. This would not be surprising as the “new” requirements of 20-plus percent down would drastically reduce the pool of buyers at this end, and higher jumbo rates would only exacerbate it.
Week of 9.29.2008 – 10.13.2008 compared to week of 10.13.2008 through 10.27.2008 SF MLS
Houses:
Listed: 9.29 = 153 10.13 = 143
Contingent: 9.29 = 64 10.13 = 63
Pending: 9.29 = 80 10.13 = 86
Sold: 9.29 = 85 10.13 = 81
Back on Market (BOM): 9.29 = 35 10.13 = 27
Reductions: 9.29 = 115 10.13 = 100
Expired: 9.29 = 27 10.13 = 31
Withdrawn: 9.29 = 46 10.13 = 35
E-mail me for condos, TICs and 2-4 unit buildings. I will send you a complete review.
I anecdotally agree with Trip — even in this downturn I know of plenty of professional couples sitting on the sidelines that could afford 700k easily.(and want to buy) Over 1 million though and that number sinks rapidly.
Katy: Thanks for the info — what trends does it support?
Assuming a 30 day escrow, all of these properties were under contract before the Dow tumbled to 7774 on October 10.
And things keep getting worse. There have been massive layoffs in the last two weeks, mostly high tech jobs. According to a 10/25/08 Chronicle article, 25% of local employers are considering cutting head count at least 10%.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/25/BU5413NT6Q.DTL&hw=layoff&sn=010&sc=409
The fall of the San Francisco real estate market has only just begun. My anecdotal observation is that for October, very few houses went under contract, especially over $1 million, despite price reductions. Can anybody support/refute with facts?
How do buyers determine comps in this type of falling market with so few sales?
would be interested to see how this compares with the SS Complete inventory Index (CII)….
also wondering how ORH and other recent calculations affect the SS Complete inventory Index (CII)….
Also wondering if the complete inventory increase is in line with the listed inventory increase….
[Editor’s Note: Single family inventory is up 3% (reductions up 34%), Condo/TIC inventory is up 30% (reductions up 94%), and “marginal” inventory is not to blame.]
I don’t think you read my comment. I wanted to know the breakdown of TIC (marginal, IMO) versus the rest of the market. With SFRs up only 3% YOY, you’re helping to make my case. I’d bet that the majority of the inventory bump is TICs plus a few overbuilt cookie cutter soma boxes… The rest of the market seems pretty normal, inventory-wise.
And yet TIC’s have been all but immune to foreclosures. If anything, I’d think that should be reassuring to potential buyers.
This is both untrue and defies logic. How can a TIC (ie. a frational share in a home) be foreclosed upon? The whole thing gets taken back if the group defaults, not just the one unit. Buyers should take no comfort in this assertion.