October 21, 2008
Beacon Economics Forecast For San Francisco, Marin And San Mateo
Beacon Economics’ forecast for the three (not nine) county zone of Marin, San Mateo and San Francisco through the first quarter of 2010:
∙ Home prices will fall roughly 25 percent from their peak
∙ Taxable sales will drop by 10 percent
∙ Payrolls will shrink by 2.5 percent
∙ Rental rates will likely to continue to rise, particularly in San Francisco
We’ll agree with the direction, but not necessarily the magnitude of home price movement in San Francisco. Rents in San Francisco will depend on how many people lose their jobs in the downturn. And how many new condos end up as rentals.
∙ Report calls S.F. state's strongest economy [SFGate]
First Published: October 21, 2008 9:45 AM
Comments from "Plugged In" Readers
Since when have started listening to economists? They're always wrong and they'll be wrong about this as well. Economic models consistently fail to predict the behavior of markets because peoples behaviors adapt to the conditions they are in.
Posted by: Thomas at October 22, 2008 11:05 AM
I can't believe the rents will rise. Roubini is making pretty dire forecasts:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rNfHmcR2xI
Posted by: chuckie at October 22, 2008 11:35 AM
when the editor said he did not agree with the 25% drop prediction, does he mean 25% is too much or too little?
Using his own chart, we are at $675K now, as oppsoed to a peak of $800+k, we are ALREADY 25% donw.
Of course, there are all kinds of stats flying around. I have seen from 4% increase to 40% drop in the media.
Posted by: ester at October 22, 2008 12:22 PM
Good catch Ester! Editor will let us know...ohh in about 2 years.
:)
Posted by: chuckie at October 22, 2008 1:29 PM
With layoffs, rents will drop.
Posted by: Jack B. Nimble at October 22, 2008 4:21 PM
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