August 14, 2008

It Might Be Time To Adjust That Algorithm (And A Few Expectations)

2025 Keith

It’s a fully detached single-family “total fixer” in Bayview. It’s listed at $149,000. The current “zestimate?” $519,000. Keep in mind that it is a probate sale and we don't yet have an actual sale price. But remember, friends don't let friends get zillowed.

UPDATE (8/15): From a tipster, "was listed in May for $270,000" (but never sold).

∙ Listing: 2025 Keith (2/1) - $149,000 [MLS]

First Published: August 14, 2008 10:45 AM

Comments from "Plugged In" Readers

and the Realtor can't even include a photo.....not worth his time at such a low price to do any marketing what-so-ever?

EEESHHH...you Realtors are spoiled rotten.

Posted by: spoiled babies at August 14, 2008 11:53 AM

370K of instant equity!

Posted by: Stu at August 14, 2008 12:02 PM

Still too expensive. Hell you can get a total-fixer in Detroit for $1 these days!

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080813/METRO/808130360/&imw=Y

Posted by: lolcat_94123 at August 14, 2008 12:15 PM

Joking aside, because of Prop 13 we are going to see a lot of these homes in the next 10 years. Plenty of SFHs with the original owner. They couldn't afford to move into a smaller place since property taxes would kill them. At the same time, they couldn't afford to keep up a place that is much larger then they need.

I'm wondering how many places in traditional family neighborhoods fit this pattern. A few these coming online every week for the next decade will not help keep prices up.

Yes, I'm a bear.

Posted by: BRCGranny at August 14, 2008 12:20 PM

There's no photo because it's a complete dump and should be torn down.

Posted by: Anon at August 14, 2008 12:37 PM

@anon:

Are you quoting the MLS listing? ;-)

Posted by: Foolio at August 14, 2008 1:03 PM

Plenty of SFHs with the original owner. They couldn't afford to move into a smaller place since property taxes would kill them. At the same time, they couldn't afford to keep up a place that is much larger then they need.

You don't seem aware that long-term owners with a low base rate of property taxes can keep that basis while selling a large home and buy a smaller one in SF or in several other counties, like Alameda, Contra Costa, and San Diego.

Posted by: michiko at August 14, 2008 1:18 PM

You don't seem aware that long-term owners with a low base rate of property taxes can keep that basis while selling a large home and buy a smaller one in SF or in several other counties, like Alameda, Contra Costa, and San Diego
-------------
You can do that once after u hit 55. If you need to do it again at 70/75/80 .. then you really cant afford to move.

Posted by: mac at August 14, 2008 1:36 PM

That basis can also be inherited. But let's not get into retirement planning here.

My point is that forecasting trends is complex and multi-factoral. As a contrarian, I'm kinda happy to see all these newly-minted bright-eyed bears.

Posted by: michiko at August 14, 2008 1:45 PM

re retirement planning:

Prop 13 and the other props that affect the transfer of that basis (not from elsewhere into SF by the way) really are a huge factor in retirement planning. One more distortion caused by this.

Posted by: mac at August 14, 2008 2:04 PM

The initial price for a probate sale is often just to start the bidding.

Posted by: Dan at August 14, 2008 2:25 PM

Here is a MapJack of the place:

http://www.mapjack.com/?M7pmWheEcFaC

1097 SF lot. Tiny. Awful location. Not worth squat.

Posted by: San FronziScheme at August 14, 2008 4:31 PM

Even looking at it through mapjack I feel the need for a kevlar jacket.

Posted by: lolcat_94123 at August 14, 2008 5:17 PM

The new Range Rover in the driveway completes the picture.

Posted by: Morgan at August 14, 2008 5:23 PM

You know its in the hood when the car is worth more than the house!

Posted by: Jimmy (Bitter Renter) at August 14, 2008 5:45 PM

The Bayview seems to be chasing the prices down.

http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2008/07/1487_mckinnon_sells_for_below_below_below_market_value.html

I'm surprised these places are commanding even 50K.

Posted by: San FronziScheme at August 14, 2008 10:37 PM

UPDATE: From a plugged-in tipster, "was listed in May for $270,000" (but never sold).

Posted by: SocketSite at August 15, 2008 8:32 AM

Time for a real estate haiku:

Lonely District Ten
Prices shudder in the breeze
Fixers need love too

Posted by: diemos at August 16, 2008 7:15 AM

I contacted the real estate company and the first realtor that was listed on the sign was....shall we say, not very helpful.

When i asked for another realtor, he was only marginally more helpful.

All they kept saying was it should be torn down; is un-livable and the only bid they received was $5k. There is absolutely NO yard.......NONE.

Problem is, it is nearly impossible to get a demo permit and w/o a yard, how would you have your rear set back (w/o filing for a variance)?

Posted by: jason at August 16, 2008 9:01 AM

The lot is 25x44

Posted by: sparky at August 16, 2008 9:14 AM

Zillow estimates, of course, are not worth the ether than are written on.

The assessed tax value of this property is $17,549. I'd say it is worth a bit more than that, if the house can be rebuilt within its current footprint.

This house may have had more value in the past, if it would have been used for loan fraud, but otherwise, it is hard to say what this house was worth last year, or is worth now.

Posted by: Dan at August 16, 2008 1:33 PM

As a neighborhood resident to the location of this house I can say that the huose would almost have to be a tear down. I dont even think a contractor could do a cheap remodel and flip it as anything truly livable. I wont even bother to argue the assinine comments about kevlar, but will agree with Jason. Because of the awkward lot, variances would almost absolutely be required and not sure what requirements would be required for the parking situation or if there are any. The house has been unoocupied for at least 10 years, has no garage, or driveway for that matter and I'd presume would require new mechanical, electrical, plumbing throughout. As for pictures I wouldnt expect more than just the one, and even that one required extensive cutting back of the trees you see as they had fully grown over the house.

Posted by: Rob at August 18, 2008 10:34 AM

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