According to the May 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.2% from April ’08 to May ’08 (the slowest rate of decline in eight months) and are down 22.9% year-over-year (a record low).
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 16.9% (having fallen 1.0% from April).
For the month of May, markets that experienced large gains in the recent real estate boom continue to be the biggest decliners. Miami and Las Vegas were the worst performers returning -3.6% and -2.9%, respectively. On a brighter note, Charlotte and Dallas have recorded three consecutive months of positive returns. These two markets are also showing the smallest annual declines, with Charlotte down 0.2% and Dallas down 3.1% versus May of 2007. From a longer-term perspective, since January 2000, the best performing markets are Washington, Los Angeles, New York and Miami.
Both prices and the rate of decline continued to fall across the lower two price tiers for the San Francisco MSA while the upper tier recorded a slight month-over-month gain for the first time in nine months.
The bottom third (under $461,780 at the time of acquisition) fell 3.6% from April to May (down 38.8% YOY); the middle third fell 0.6% from April to May (down 26.1% YOY); and the top third (over $716,171 at the time of acquisition) rose 0.9% from April to May (down 8.7% YOY).
And according to the Index, home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have returned to August 2002 levels, the middle third to January 2004 levels, and the top third continues to hold at March 2005 levels.
The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., the greater MSA).
∙ Record Low Annual Declines Recorded in May 2008 [S&P]
∙ April S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Declines Across All Tiers [SocketSite]