According to the OFHEO’s first quarter 2008 House Price Index (HPI), California registered the sharpest year-over-year depreciation (-10.6%) of any state; Merced, Stockton and Modesto registered the sharpest year-over-year depreciation of all MSAs (-24.7%, -21.5%, and -21.0% respectively); and the San Francisco MSAD registered year-over-year depreciation of 3.25% (accelerating from a 0.9% YOY drop in 2007).
Both OFHEO’s purchase-only index and its all-transactions index show much more muted price declines than do other house price indexes. “While house price declines are widespread, homes financed with prime, conforming mortgages continue to hold up better than those financed with other types of mortgages, a phenomenon we’ve been observing for the last several quarters,” [OFHEO Director James Lockhart] said.
For those who are unfamiliar, the OFHEO House Price Index (HPI) is based on data from repeat single-family home sales or refinancings that involve conforming mortgages. Data from transactions involving either condominiums or non-conforming loans (two major components of the San Francisco market) are excluded from the Index.
∙ Decline In House Prices Accelerates In First Quarter [OFHEO]
∙ Are We Detached From More Than Simply The Fundamentals? [SocketSite]
∙ April S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Declines Across All Tiers [SocketSite]
Still has a long way to drop. Property is way too inflated here to this day.
According to that data California is currently priced at Q2 of 2005 (see page 53 of the report). That seems fairly accurate from what I am seeing. The problem is that 2005 prices are still quite high. If you look through the more historic data it seems that 1997 Q3 is about the same as 1989 Q2. So perhaps we have another 5 to 6 years to go in this decline.
Would the picture look different if it were not just single family homes?
Multi family homes, I believe over 3 units, are commercial real estate.
hi: is the MSAD just SF or the surrounding areas as well?