A few early numbers for closings at Infinity and One Rincon Hill (according to J.K. Dineen):
∙ Infinity: 11 closed, a “handful” moved in, 1 has walked away from a deposit.
∙ One Rincon Hill: 40 Closed, 17 moved in, 15 have walked away from deposits.
Keep in mind that we don’t have a good denominator to measure the actual rate at which buyers are walking away. And that’s 11 down and 354 to go at Infinity (not including tower two), and 40 down and 350 to go at One Rincon Hill (again, not including tower two).
UPDATE: From a plugged-in reader: “I question the accuracy of these numbers. My source at the title company said that they will have closed, as of today, just under 30 at the Infinity.”
UPDATE: From another: “I have a unit under contract at ORH, and asked the sales team this morning regarding that figure. I was informed that 16 people have walked away from their deposits, with all but 3 of them being replaced (most likely with higher prices).”
Infinity Update: Closings, Move-Ins And Even Kitchen Cabinetry [SocketSite]
RandomRumors: One Rincon Hill Walkthroughs Without An Agent? [SocketSite]
New residents unpack at S.F. condo towers [Business Times]

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Comments from “Plugged-In” Readers

  1. Posted by cooper

    15 walk aways at ORH–ouch thats gonna be a problem.

  2. Posted by anon

    15 have walked away from their deposits compared to 40 who have moved in. Boy, to those who haven’t yet had to make the call, why would you close at the old price? It is clear that plenty of units will be available and they will go for less. Even if you love the place, why not just walk away, then come back in six months and buy at a discount?

  3. Posted by diemos

    Wow. 27% walking from thier deposits. I guess fluj was right, my prediction of 50% was comletely ridiculous.

  4. Posted by anon

    15 walkaways! Is that right? If so, I’d be very worried if I bought at ORH.

  5. Posted by Tom

    I question the accuracy of these numbers. My source at the title company said that they will have closed, as of today, just under 30 at the Infinity.
    If that number is off, I wonder what other numbers are off.
    If the walkaways are true, this is a bad sign. Also, I think it is worth wondering how linear the walkaways will be. I originally thought that walkaways would try to wait and close late so they could delay the decisions. If that is true, this is obviously really bad news.

  6. Posted by matt

    I have a unit under contract at ORH, and asked the sales team this morning regarding that figure. I was informed that 16 people have walked away from their deposits, with all but 3 of them being replaced (most likely with higher prices).
    The interesting fact of ORH is because of the large initial sales push, prices have escalated, so in actuality any cancellation re-written will most likely be at a higher price.

  7. Posted by JSchwantz

    Infinity walk aways: 8%
    ORH walk aways: 27%
    Too small a sample size to make a real call but I’d be concerned if I was a ORH (or One Refund Hill) buyer.
    So much variation for two brand new luxury condos so close to each other- wow! I didn’t realize the demand for real estate could vary so much for property with many similarities. It doesn’t take a genius to understand these numbers. Anyone know the typical walk away rate for condos in a “normal” year?

  8. Posted by smarty

    Matt, I would hesitate to trust the sales team that easily there…. it doesn’t make any sense that such a large percentage of walkaways (compared to closed units) would be replaced so easily, and with higher prices. Especially when the building isn’t even completely sold yet. Perhaps by ‘replaced’ they meant ‘people have inquired about them’ and by ‘higher prices’ they made they now required higher deposits because they want to avoid so many walkaways…
    But if you have a unit under contract, you just go ahead and continue to believe its value has risen. I’ll be along in a year and a half to buy the unit next to you at a 30% discount. See you then (bake me a welcome to the neighborhood cake when I move in please).

  9. Posted by fluj

    Diemos, you know that the high rise condo is a niche, right?

  10. Posted by M

    So, If someone walks away from the deposit and the unit is quickly ‘resold’ does the original buyer get the deposit back ?

  11. Posted by anon

    I’m skeptical of the “people walked away but they were able to resell the unit at a higher price” argument. There are creative ways to unload the unit to someone else.
    Not sure they they don’t allow contract assignments (very common in Vancouver) where they allow the purchase contract to be signed over to someone else.

  12. Posted by Dude

    The cancellation rate is worrisome. Additionally worrisome is the fact that several ORH contracts are up for assignment on craigslist. Additionally worrisome is the fact that several of the owners who are closing are just planning on renting their units out. Check out craigslist to see how many units at Infinity and ORH are already listed for rent – it’s a lot, and at ridiculous rents that nobody is going to pay.
    At Infinity, I saw 2 bedrooms listed from $3,800/month to $8,500/month. At ORH they’re asking $4,200 to $4,600. Looks like failed flippers trying to cover their mortgage until they can sell. Good luck with those wishing rents when folks can rent for much less in more established areas. Although it will be fun to watch the upcoming limbo contest that asking rents in these buildings are about to play out.
    Oh, and didn’t somebody once mention that both Infinity and ORH had 1-year no-flipping clauses? Because somebody already listed a studio at the Infinity for $575K:
    http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/rfs/583269986.html
    Then reduced it to $540K, just 6 days later:
    http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/rfs/590257001.html

  13. Posted by movingback

    It’s a great deal for the developer – they keep the original deposits on the units that are ‘walked away from’ and have the chance to sell the units all over again.
    It seems pretty logical what is going on at both buildings – a lot of buyers got in during the initial sales phase – even pre-sales – with no intention of actually moving in, just trying to flip the units. The market has changed (duh!). Many are finding they can no longer qualify for the loan they had planned on originally. The re-marketed units will eventually sell – and the rentals will end up being rented as well – high-quality and a great lifestyle for most people, given other options in the city – and those who push ahead to move into their units because they are looking forward to calling the place home will just need to ride it all out and enjoy their new place.

  14. Posted by Tom

    If the developer does easily resell the unit the old buyer who lost his deposit could likely recover a large amount of it. The law in this area tries to avoid unjust inrichment, but also acknowledges the costs associated with signing up the first buyer and marketing to/signing up the second buyer. If my memory serves me correctly, the old buyer can ask for an accounting and has the burden of proving the builder did not loose more than the deposit.

  15. Posted by sf

    it’s the economy, stupid. has nothing to do with the buildings, they’re aesthetics, vulnerable points, etc. etc. people are BROKE and by people I am also talking also about the banks. If this economy were 2 years prior these buildings would be filling up faster. The construction projects are not even done yet, in fact, ORH is only HALF done, so to determine a property’s ultimate success at this point is very ignorant.

  16. Posted by infinity buyer

    So if my calculation is correct, by the time this all shakes out, One Rincon will have somewhere around 100 walk-aways. Having experience in the Las Vegas and Phoenix (where they also have high number of walk-aways in new developments), this is early signs of a development in big trouble. Let’s hope this number goes down or the market improves, otherwise the owners there should be very, very concerned.

  17. Posted by John

    “Oh, and didn’t somebody once mention that both Infinity and ORH had 1-year no-flipping clauses? Because somebody already listed a studio at the Infinity for $575K:”
    Please read. That’s not a studio “at the Infinity”. It is a studio “with views of the courtyard and architecture of the Infinity towers.”

  18. Posted by tipster

    Whoo boy this brings back memories of one of my first jobs in the 1970s when I was the hockey announcer for the local team. One of the things I was supposed to do was to announce the attendance each night.
    The fact was, attendance in the 70s was pretty dismal. And if we announced the real numbers, it would make it seem like people who were there were not doing what lots of other people were doing.
    No problemo, I was told to just take the actual numbers and make them look more favorable so that look like we were more popular than we were. So around 10pm I got the real attendance figures from a runner and I doubled the actual numbers and that’s what I announced. 4000 people showed and I said 8000. One night, my announced numbers (16000) were HIGHER than the capacity of the venue (14000), in spite of the fact that almost half the seats were empty! But attendance numbers kept rising so I kept making those silly announcements.
    It didn’t matter. What mattered was that I learned an important lesson: information provided by private entities is not a public service for any benefit of yours: it is a marketing tool used to sell more of the product or service the party releasing the “information” is trying to sell.
    Whatever the real numbers are, I doubt the sales office is releasing them to the poster who asked. The sales office is not there to provide you with reasons to walk away, so they are much more likely to be announcing walkaway numbers that are lower than actual.
    Get this through your head: it’s a SALES office, not a public service. They, and the realtors who will no doubt be piping up at how “happy” their clients are to close, want you to close so that they don’t lose their commissions. They don’t get dime one if the buyer walks away. They aren’t going to release any information that encourages anyone to walk away.
    If the buyers knew how many people were really walking away, more of them would walk.

  19. Posted by fluj

    Tipster, give it a rest. You lost your ability to play the “realtor conspiracy” card some time ago.

  20. Posted by recentinfinitybuyer

    Tipster –
    I like your insights and comments to this site, and I agree that any information coming from the sales offices should be questioned and scrutinized. However, would you agree that it is possible to obtain accurate information from the sales office? Do you out of hand discount everything?

  21. Posted by Trip

    I have no idea if the ORH sales office is providing accurate info or not. However, if, in fact, they are telling people X buyers have walked and Y of those have been replaced, and it turns out those numbers are false, that is fraud. They don’t have to tell you anything, but if they do, they cannot lie about it. If they’re doing this, and prices of the units end up falling, any buyer who was told such falsehoods would have pretty much a slam-dunk lawsuit for the lost value (“I never would have closed if they had told me the real numbers, and now I’m suck with a loss.”)

  22. Posted by John

    Real indicator is easy to get.
    Just call the sales office, say you are interested in buying and ask if they have any units available and how many.
    Keep in touch with them and check in from time to time for the next few months.

  23. Posted by Dude

    My apologies John, sorry about the mistake.
    But in my defense, it’s easy to be confused by the listing, which features 2 pictures of the Infinity and has a tagline which reads, “$540000 Bargain! The Infinity!..”

  24. Posted by movingback

    @ tipster – I agree with Fluj – give this whole ‘realtor conspiracy’ theory of yours a rest. Not only is it aggravating but it’s just not true in most cases. I don’t see you as any expert in the field myself, so why don’t you just stick to giving your opinion instead of making so many people out to be suckers, villians and crooks?

  25. Posted by ex SF-er

    I personally wish both these projects well.
    they’re adding sorely needed residential living space.
    walkaways are no surprise, for some time many of us have been expecting a lot of failed closings.
    I personally have stated that the success of closings will act as a harbinger of future SF Real Estate, so I have an academic interest in what occurs with the two towers. (good closing rate=better market than I thought, poor closing rate=not so good market)
    but regardless of what happens, I wish the owners and the towers well… they’ve improved SF overall even if there are particulars of which I’m not fond.

  26. Posted by John

    No need for anologies.
    I think what we all have learned from this bubble (and burst) is that we should always read into the lines, not just the headlines.

  27. Posted by Michael

    Dude, don’t apologize. Those Craigslist ads are for “318 Spear” which is an Infinity address plus all the photos are exterior and INTERIOR renderings of the Infinity.
    Either they’re ads for the Infinity or they’re 100% misleading.

  28. Posted by ex SF-er

    also, we have to be careful with this data:
    my understanding is that the closings thus far are mainly the lower floors.
    The demographics of the lower floors would likely be different than the higher floors.
    The higher floors will cost much more money (so perhaps people will be more likely to walk away given the astronomical prices)
    however the higher floors likely attracted more people with higher incomes, perhaps they are more able to close, so less likely to walk away
    also the higher floors command a higher deposit, so perhaps again less likely to walk away.
    we’ll just have to see what happens.

  29. Posted by movingback

    @ ex SF-er – well said. Could not agree with you more.

  30. Posted by anonm

    EDIT: previous post got messed up in the browser – obviously the last question in the second paragraph belongs in the third paragraph (that is not publicly available info)
    recentinfinitybuyer – The sales office is exactly that: an office whose goal is to sell the product. It is no different than walking into a car dealership and asking questions to the car dealer. Can you get a straight answer? It will depend on the question.
    If it’s a factual question that can be proved/disproved using public info, you can probably get a decent answer. E.g., How many horsepower does this car have? Does it include anti-lock brakes? Does the condo have real hardwood floors?
    If it’s a question that can only be proved/disproved using private information that is not readily available to the buyer, then you should expect that you will get an answer that is inflated in the seller’s favor. E.g., Have you really “taken all the profit” out of the car and given me the best price? Is the car running low on stock or is there an ample supply if I want to think about it for a while and come back in a few weeks? How many people are walking away from their deposits, and how might this affect my resale price going forward?

  31. Posted by missionbayres

    The writing was on the wall weeks ago. It doesn’t take a genius to figure this out.
    When the ORH developer barred agents and inspectors from the building, you knew something was up. It’s obvious the developer sense some angst in the buyers and tried to block any outside influence when it came to walkthroughs and closing. Now all the beans are spilled in table.
    Massive cancellations (40 closings and 15 cancellations is not a good ratio) and 30+ rental units. Is it just me, or this the worse nightmare happening right before our eyes?
    Honestly, I do agree with SF-er. But man, this doesn’t look good at all….

  32. Posted by ex SF-er

    as for tipster being overly cautious:
    I will say that ORH sales staff lied directly to me about the numbers of units they had left.
    when I went with friends who bought an upper level unit, they were told it was the last unit available and that there were only 8 units left in the entire first building (this was last summer, maybe around June/July if I recall correctly). They were given the ‘hard sell’ pressure tactic of “it’s the last one left”. My friends signed a contract for that unit that day (against my advice).
    The next day, other friends of ours were offered a very similar unit for sale.
    I have caught them being not quite accurate about sales other times as well.
    So although tipster’s posts are quite angry in tone, the gist is correct: the sales office is not there to provide us with information, they are there to make sales.
    nothing wrong with that as long as you have no illusions about it.
    I mean c’mon, what do you expect them to say? “Yeah nobody closes on these… everybody is falling out of contract!”

  33. Posted by fluj

    Sales office versus realtor, though — they aren’t the same thing. They can often be at cross purposes.

  34. Posted by Phatty

    ex SF-er -> I noticed the exact same thing with ORH & Infinity when I looked at both… they say they have only a couple left, when really they have much more. I think, and I could be wrong, this is a sales scheme where they ‘reserve’ most of the units and only actively sell a handful to make it look like only a few are left. Then when those are sold. they ‘release’ some of the ‘reserves’, so then there are only a handful left again. So technically, a building could have 0 units sold, but only a handful left because the developer isn’t selling the rest… yet.
    If I’m right about that, it’s pretty pathetic and shady to do – and that’s 1 of the reasons I don’t trust a g-d- thing anyone in the ORH or Infinity office says to me.
    (oh, and I base this on the fact that I was told at Infinity there was only 1 low floor 2 bedroom corner left. I told them that’s what I wanted, but the one they were offering didn’t have a balcony (a show stopper for me) so to call me if someone walked away from one that does, suddenly they realized they still had the exact same unit with a balcony…. it was like magic)

  35. Posted by anon sf

    mrbogue,
    That’s funny stuff!
    I’ll bid 199k for the penthouse!

  36. Posted by g

    Has anyone had trouble getting any of the banks to lock in rates when you request such? If so how did you handle it?

  37. Posted by SFwatcher

    I don’t see anything wrong with tipster’s argument. If truth hurts some people, it does ( you can’t do anything about it). If some one is selling something(either propery or words or headlines), they have vested interest in that.
    I wonder what happens if someone calls the sales team, plays a recording “This call is monitored or recorded for a future truth seeking purpose”. And start asking questions. I doubt if they even respond….

  38. Posted by SFwatcher

    Sorry all. I tried to post it, but saw an error page. So, went back and tried it. had to do it multiple times before I gave up. Now I see that its been posted multiple times..
    Really sorry about that..
    [Editor’s Note: It’s our fault not yours (see comment below).]

  39. Posted by fluj

    Tipster made a point about sales offices and threw in a “realtor” zinger for fun. That was what was wrong. Hey, I’m a realtor. I don’t take that sort of guff lying down. Think what you want. But I’ll continue to stand up for myself.

  40. Posted by recentinfinitybuyer

    As I said in my original post, I’m in agreement that you must be skeptical but that doesn’t mean there’s not factual information to be had. Here’s the test for me – ask the same question to multiple people on differnt days in a relatively short period of time. If the answers triangulate..you’re probably on to something; if they don’t,investigate more. It might take some digging, but you’ll start to get close to the real facts.

  41. Posted by SF Agent

    I’m confused about the “318 Spear Street” ad on craigslist too. How can that person be selling a studio “there” without breeching the contract? Are they making special allowances for some buyers to be able to sell whenever they want??
    Concerning ORH and craigslist — I’ve heard from one person that someone at ORH threatened legal action against a buyer for posting their condo for sale on craigslist, claiming that he/she didn’t havw the right to sell the uit since they don’t officially own it yet, and don’t represent ORH.
    Seems like a nasty tactic to me, forcing some buyers to lose their deposit.

  42. Posted by movingback

    I think you mean breaching, not breeching.

  43. Posted by RinconHill_Res

    “ORH walk aways: 27%”
    The walkaway percentage is not relevant at all because it doesn’t tell you a thing about why they walked away. What if those people had trouble securing financing or were flippers?
    What is relevant is the replacement percentage of walkaways and the price paid by those replacement buyers.
    For instance, if the replacement percentage is 95% and the prices received by the developer for the replacement units is higher in the aggregate, then that speaks louder than anything.
    In fact, if an anonymous member of the sales staff or a “friend” of the sales staff had those numbers and they were favorable, they could shut up the naysayers in one felt swoop…

  44. Posted by SocketSite

    Sorry folks, but it’s definitely a glitch on our side that’s responsible for serving up the error messages that too many of you are receiving. We hope to have everything resolved this weekend, but in the meantime please rest assured that your comments aren’t being lost even if (okay, when) you receive a dreaded “Internal server error” message.
    Thanks for your patience and understanding. And as always, thank you for plugging in.

  45. Posted by tipster

    fluj, you may have misinterpreted. My point is that some people who have a motive to mislead will sometimes do that. That isn’t a conspiracy, that’s just common sense.
    I went back and looked for the “Realtor zinger” to which you referred, and all I said was, in essence, that there are some realtors who will lose commissions if more units fail to close, so if any of them come on here and tell you anything like listing how happy their clients are to close (which was done on this site previously), that they too have at least a motive to mislead, and one has to make up their own mind about that.
    Geez, even clergy have covered up the truth, it wasn’t a knock on realtors, it was a message to people not to necessarily believe everything they hear, but instead to evaluate the source and whether that source has a motive to mislead, even one you might not realize (like inflating the attendance at hockey games, or trying to hang on to a commission) and then make up your own mind.
    Do I think every realtor is a crook? Nope. Do I think fluj is one of the good ones? Yup. There are lots of good ones. There are also lots of ones who try to mislead. But I still evaluate what I hear in the context of the motivations of the person who said it. I hope others will as well.

  46. Posted by tito

    While the story had some missing information, I really wonder if many of you can actually read. And absolute BS by most of you here – perhaps to muddled the picture on purpose. in 1.5 years One Rincon had 15 walk away out of 370. That is a tiny number compared to most projects (and remember, a nice chunk of that is obviously realtor investors that couldn’t unload other properties and spend their time on blogs like these bitter and biting…anyone named “anon”). But more important.they sold the ones that fell out almost immediately. At more money. they closed 40+ in just over 3 weeks among lower floors. And its a phased occupancy so they can’t close more if they wanted to — a frieds closing isn;t scheduled until April. They are freakishly successful at One Rincon. Do they have a handful of units there. Sure. And will likely have a few more. that’s why we’re on the waiting list. But the idea that they have a bunch is BS, because we ask and are waiting. But not to deal with one of these shrill realtor/investors here that keep stirring the pot because they suck at being realtor/investors and are just bitter, bitter, bitter.

  47. Posted by socketstupid

    An intelligent person would not make any conclusions from this data so far. There just is not enough data. This is like reading the national enquirer. Socketsite posters are sad.

  48. Posted by missionbayres

    “in 1.5 years One Rincon had 15 walk away out of 370″
    tito, it’s obvious you don’t fully understand the real estate industry and all it’s complexities.
    Out of approx 55 units closing, 15 walked, 40 closed, not 370. The only reason those 15 walked is because One Rincon gave them a deadline to close, they couldn’t close so they walked instead and lost their deposit.
    There’s probably a large number of other contract holders that will walk in the coming months. Since they will lose their deposit regardless of what happens, they don’t have any incentive to walk now and will walk away at the last minute. Or in another situation, a buyer receive a closing date from the developer. The buyer tries to and realizes he/she can’t get the loan, and has not choice but to walk. These kind of situations will pop up again and again in the coming months.
    When this is all said and done, we may have 100 cancellations. How many of these can be resold without lowering prices is the big question.

  49. Posted by diemos

    So it’s the end of February. Would some plugged in reader care to give us a report on how the groundbreaking for the second tower went?
    [Editor’s Note: Let’s not further muddle this thread (and we’d strongly suggest you plug in on Monday).]

  50. Posted by socketstupid

    missionbayres…
    your posts are usually not worthy of a response but I can’t help it. How in the world can you tell tito he does not understand the real estate market and then you go on to making predictions as if you were a profit? Now that is crazy.

  51. Posted by SpellChecker

    uh, socketstupid, it’s “prophet” not “profit”

  52. Posted by socketstupid

    uh, socketstupid, it’s “prophet” not “profit”…
    Thanks SpellChecker! I am happy to use your spell checking services. Where should I send payment? Oh I forgot, this is free service you provide since you have too much time on your hands.

  53. Posted by smarty

    Socketstupid (and I think your name may just apply), I think Missionbayres was doing what people call ‘forecasting’. Let me walk you through the math:
    Of the 55 units in discussion, 15 have walked and 40 have closed. That’s 27.27% walking, and 72.72% closing. Now, since there are 370 units in the building, 27.27 times 370 = 100.9. Since it’s not realistic that .9 of a unit would be walked away from, Missionbayres generously rounded down.
    Let me know if you’d like to learn more about forecasting – it’s a common tool used by most business; including the real estate industry. In fact, I’m sure ORH used a great deal of it to predict sales before construction began – and unfortunately I imagine the #’s back then aren’t going to come true because the #$%! is hitting the fan, and despite people such as yourself trying to grasp on to every last shred of optimism, reality will strike soon enough. (for you – I think it’s already hit for ORH; they just don’t want you to know)

  54. Posted by missionbayres

    socketstupid, you are mean to SpellChecker. chill out, it’s Friday, no need for personal attacks.
    So tell me, if people make predictions, they are all prophets?
    Predict the presidential election, you’re a prophet?
    Predict whole wins the Super Bowl, prophet?
    Predict the and Dow and Nasdaq, another prophet?
    Sure are a lot of prophets out there ;-)
    My prediction was based on facts (according to Socketsite and SF Biz Journal). 15 walkouts out of 55. Do the math, if the rate of walkouts continue at it’s current pace, we could have 100 cancellations, give or take a few.

  55. Posted by helpful

    Can we get this straight…..the salespeople are licensed real estate agents (not counting the ‘hosts’ or ‘hostesses’)and have a duty to clients (fiduciary) and the public (honest, truthful). Their license number and affiliation are easy to obtain on the DRE web site. If you are not getting the truth file a complaint right away…..if there is a pattern or multiple complaints filed things will start to clear up soon even without the prolonged efforts by DRE (which in many cases is ridiculously long…but a file full of complaints will get attention from lots of people). Stop talking and take action!

  56. Posted by helpful

    Can we get this straight…..the salespeople are licensed real estate agents (not counting the ‘hosts’ or ‘hostesses’)and have a duty to clients (fiduciary) and the public (honest, truthful). Their license number and affiliation are easy to obtain on the DRE web site. If you are not getting the truth file a complaint right away…..if there is a pattern or multiple complaints filed things will start to clear up soon even without the prolonged efforts by DRE (which in many cases is ridiculously long…but a file full of complaints will get attention from lots of people). Stop talking and take action!

  57. Posted by Dude

    Wow…some tension out there.
    Anyway, question for the agents or lawyers out there: dot these contracts feature some kind of loophole that would allow people to walk away and still keep their deposit? Now granted, if you think you overpaid and no longer want to buy, tough luck.
    But if a buyer’s financing fell through, as missionbayres mentions, wouldn’t that be grounds for letting the buyer off the hook since they don’t have the means to close? Just curious.

  58. Posted by missionbayres

    Smarty, Thanks!
    Another way to calculate:
    370 units / 55 units closed = 6.73
    15 * 6.73 = 100.95
    So again around 100 will walk away at it’s current pace. My forecast :-)

  59. Posted by socketstupid

    smarty, you are forgetting that when you make a forecast you should look at all the data. You fail to realize that people are moving into the bottom floors first which are cheaper units.
    As you go up in the building, the units get more expensive and the buyers will most likely have different levels of income and wealth. As Socketsite recently posted, most of the units in the Millennium that have sold average $2.5MM while the cheaper units are not selling. People with lower incomes will be more susceptible to not having their loans approved, will be more sensitive to the economy, etc. You are the one who should take the lesson in forecasting.

  60. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    “I have a unit under contract at ORH, and asked the sales team this morning regarding that figure. I was informed that 16 people have walked away from their deposits, with all but 3 of them being replaced (most likely with higher prices).
    The interesting fact of ORH is because of the large initial sales push, prices have escalated, so in actuality any cancellation re-written will most likely be at a higher price.”
    Matt –
    Your posting highlights the most important criteria to consider. While a large number of ‘failed’ closings may initially set off alarm bells, if those units [where buyers default] are put back on the market and are resold at a higher rate, that’s actually POSITIVE for buyers that have closed. I know that on my floor, a ‘defaulting’ 2/2 unit [almost identical sq ft] but a city view [we have a bay view which I think is superior] was sold for $90k above my purchase price. Moreover, given that we are planning a cash out/refi, the Bank of America appraisal we received is $150K higher than our purchase price. So, for those of you ORH naysayers, perhaps you think you know more about real estate than those that appraise property for a living? And by the way, a bank will almost always appraise at less than the property’s actual value. Needless to say, I’m thrilled with my purchase.
    Now, the question is, can Infinity buyers honestly say they have had the same experience? How many Infinity buyers are considering cash out/refis and have received bank appraisals 15% higher than their purchase prices? Let’s remember, most Infinity buyers payed about $250 per sq more than ORH buyers for comparable units. Don’t all speak up at once. Moreover, as I mentioned during a previous post –
    If the estimates of 20% or more inventory remaining at Infinity I are accurate, pretty soon they are going to have to have some sizable price reductions, else they will never get around to selling Tower II. I believe others have posted ‘whispers’ of incentives already quietly being offered at the Infinity. So, those that have closed units at $1000+ per sq ft [and some as high as $1300 per sq. ft] are not going to be thrilled when prices fall to [say] 800-900 per sq ft. So, as current Infinity owners see their equity consistently marked to market at progressively lower levels than they paid, that will be the real phenomenon to watch.

  61. Posted by Tom

    Recent ORH buyer;
    Are you serious, your going to pull cash out of an underwater property. That’s going to hurt at some point. And, I think it is pretty clear that banks are not the best at valuing property. I would wait before you go spending that cash on anything as you may need it.

  62. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    Tom –
    People like you amaze me. You must think that you are brighter than the smartest people at Bank of America. Let’s face it, banks have indeed been crushed by the sub-prime crisis, but they do know a little better than to replicate the same mistakes over and over. Needless to say, it’s hard to imagine that an institution such as Bank of America has not adapted and changed its appraisal practices accordingly. These guys can’t stay in business for as long as they have by replicating the same mistakes over and over.
    Accordingly, I am inclined to believe that appraisers have been instructed to err on the side of conservative valuations, not the lofty appraisals of the past. However, in your view, I should cast the opinion of someone that values property for a living and instead take your advice. As intelligent as you may think you are, I’ll be adopting your opinion when pigs start to fly.

  63. Posted by anonysf

    Recent ORH buyer,
    If you take comfort in constantly commenting how ORH is cheaper than Infinity, then all the power to you.
    Seems to me, according to various blogs on Socketsite and others, the ratio of critics toward ORH vs Infinity is like 10 to 1.
    Also, if Infinity is so overpriced, why is no one walking away (except 1) vs 15 at ORH?
    Also, I noticed at ORH there’s still exposed drywall in the lobby and the driveway doesn’t look functional. How are people getting getting to the lobby/elevator? Is there a valet for parking? The place looks like a construction zone so I’m curious how liveable the place is now?

  64. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    Tom –
    People like you amaze me. You must think that you are brighter than the smartest people at Bank of America. Let’s face it, banks have indeed been crushed by the sub-prime crisis, but they do know a little better than to replicate the same mistakes over and over. Needless to say, it’s hard to imagine that an institution such as Bank of America has not adapted and changed its appraisal practices accordingly. These guys can’t stay in business for as long as they have by replicating the same mistakes over and over.
    Accordingly, I am inclined to believe that appraisers have been instructed to err on the side of conservative valuations, not the lofty appraisals of the past. However, in your view, I should cast the opinion of someone that values property for a living and instead take your advice. As intelligent as you may think you are, I’ll be adopting your opinion when pigs start to fly.

  65. Posted by eddy

    This place was doomed the moment The Sharper Image filed for Chapter 11 — It’s a sign people!!!

  66. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    Anonysf –
    Well clearly you have un unbeatable argument – “the ratio of critics toward ORH vs Infinity is like 10 to 1″ so that must mean the Infinity is a better building. You can’t make it up.
    So, you have displayed that you can’t add [while ORH may have its critics, it’s not 10 to 1] and once again, an inability to come up with any sound logical arguments. It’s just the same old circular logic.
    So, did your Infinity unit get a bank appraisal for 15% more than you paid? That would be a factual argument, if it were to happen. Still waiting …

  67. Posted by socketstupid

    Recent ORH buyer….I think you should also take anonysf’s comment into account when making your decision.
    “Seems to me, according to various blogs on Socketsite and others, the ratio of critics toward ORH vs Infinity is like 10 to 1.
    Also, if Infinity is so overpriced, why is no one walking away (except 1) vs 15 at ORH?”
    Together with missionbayres’s/smarty’s great forecasting skills and anonysf’s use of socketsite as a market gauge, you would be stupid not to take their advice.

  68. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    Socketstupid –
    You are wise – I will definitely use them as my guiding light. To do otherwise would indeed be foolish. What do banks who issue mortgages and their appraisers know about real estate anyway?
    :-)

  69. Posted by scorpio

    sounds like a case for the Attorney General…

  70. Posted by missionbayres

    If you want a sound logical argument, then Anonysf made one solid point:
    “if Infinity is so overpriced, why is no one walking away (except 1) vs 15 at ORH?”
    Point is clear, Infinity buyers are keeping their units so they must see some value in their purchase. The writings on the wall…
    Recent ORH buyer,
    No one is telling to use these comments as your guiding light. But, some are VERY valid points and you should take these as well as advice from your broker/agent/lender and not base your decisions solely on what you WANT to hear, but on a varieties of sources, even if you DON’T want to hear it…
    Good luck.

  71. Posted by Willow

    I think the point that Tipster was making is that Realtors and Sales Offices will present information in the best possible light, which can sometimes either be misleading or altogether false. Sorry Fluj, but I’ve dealt with lots of realtors, and as a buyer or seller a healthy dose of skepticism towards the profession is highly recommended!

  72. Posted by anon

    After reading this post I checked with a friend of mine,who has intimate knowledge of ORH. This person confirmed to me that since Nov.1st, 15 cancellations have occurred. This person was not sure if these exact cancellations were filled but said that 13 homes have been put into contract since. This is a net loss of 3.In total they have 365 homes closed or in contract.
    I thought it was of note that these cancellations date all the way back to Nov, this means that the homes were not necessarily homes that were in default of closing on time. May be buyers that were VIP’s that had to walk away from a smaller deposit (then 3 or 5%) and could no longer qualify for financing. So forecasting 100 cancellations off of the incomplete data stated earlier may not be most accurate.
    Overall, I believe both ORH and Infinity offer a unique residence in an international city not seen before. Although other sectors of real estate are being negatively affected, these two buildings have the best position to sell out successfully.
    Just an opinion based on facts, of which I am sure I will be thoroughly reamed.

  73. Posted by fluj

    @ Willow. Good. You should be.
    I’m skeptical towards nearly every profession, cab drivers to lawyers to physicians to presidents. Realtors fall in there somewhere too.
    There is a bit of a back story context here that a lot of us are familiar with. I don’t wish to get into it. Tipster didn’t mean it as a dig, tho to me it was. I’m not sure what realtors had to do with the point he was making.
    Saying that “Realtors” will present information in the best possible light, a la sales offices, isn’t something I would agree with. If by “Realtors” you mean the National Association of Realtors and its perpetually sunny press releases, then OK.
    But sales offices are agenda driven regarding one particular product. They are working under a particular directive and sales initiative. Realtors, on the other hand, are by and large entrepreneurs who present their own business plans to offices. If the twain shall meet, then OK, the realtor and the broker will do business together.
    It isn’t the same thing. Plain and simple.
    And that’s forgetting the simple fact that realtors have no particular reason to sell any one place over any other. They want to get the deal done, sure. It hurts the bottom line when clients back out, sure. But there is always something else out there. Sales offices have one motive, tied to one property.

  74. Posted by cooper

    @Fluj. It was the NAR just last quarter told everybody that housing prices wouldn’t go down much if at all. Realtors as a general rule (exceptions of course) alays think it’s “a great time to buy or sell a home”. Guess what, it’s either one or the other most of the time, rarely is it both. It’s a profession that discourages competition to its fat cat 6% commission rates despite two and three hundred percent price increases. Think about that–what other industry has had their effective compensation double and triple in just 5 years. And its no coincidence that much like mortgage brokers, realtors are being investigated by the DOJ now for forcing bad appraisals. This is neither here nor there, you’ve been on these boards with nasty commentsto people forecasting there will be big price declines. Welcome to 15% down already as of today and get ready for another 15-30%. And welcome to -100% on your credibility on anything real estate related.

  75. Posted by Tom

    “People like you amaze me. You must think that you are brighter than the smartest people at Bank of America.” First, I’m not that bright, but I think I can top them. But as for your point, take any advice you want, that does not mean it is not shocking to me and most people to hear people think their condo has gone up so much a days after move in when the market has done nothing but fall for the last year and the building is not exactly keeping buyers intrigued.
    On a separate note. I highly doubt that these buyers that are running away are being replaced with those who are paying more. If they were, they would all get their deposits back and I have not heard of anyone getting them back. For those who don’t think this is the case, take a glance at the law re liquidated damages in this case and you’ll see that there would be no way for them to keep the cash if they can turn and sell for more.

  76. Posted by fluj

    I poked fun at the NAR myself, Cooper. Did you not read that? 6 percent is the exception, not the rule. It’s 5. Everybody knows this.
    We’re already at 15% down, huh? And welcome to it, you say.
    Ooooohkaaaaaaaaaay.
    San Francisco prices are already down 15% folks. You heard it here first! Cooper bids you BIENVENIDOS!
    Learn the difference between “nasty” and irreverent, pal. There’s a difference. You might call it a marked difference. You know, far apart? Kind of like the difference between sales offices and realtors.

  77. Posted by viewlover

    It seems that there is at least one poster that is on a waiting list at ORH. If 16 units were walkaways and all but 3 are arleady in contract(?) would tell me that things are not that alarming.
    I was thinking of buying at ORH when they were frst being advertised, but it was still a dream in my head. One day I found out that there had been a two day party or something and all the units were sold. I was pretty dissappointed, specially since I started to hear more details about the building.
    Since I was not aggressively on top of the happenings I felt I lost a great opportunity to investors who were salivating at these units as filps rather than amazing homes to live in. I moved on.
    Maybe there are alot of people that missed the boat,like me, and are looking at all of this as a second chance to maybe get into ORH. I’m sure Tito is not the only one on a waiting list.
    Wonder if they are really going for more? I remember a previous posting about one of the penthouses having had an initial offering price around 1.5 and it had about 1300 sq.ft, with a protected outdoor space facing west and south. If the value scale is constant, I’d have to say that people would pay more or at least what the initial offerings were.
    With regard to all of the my dogs better than yours aruguments, both are incredible buildings and will make beautiful homes for their owners to enjoy. Even if you feel upside down, if it’s a comforting home and you can afford to stay in it, just ride it out. If this country really goes to hell, it’ll be hell for everyone, but maybe you can still get through hell in a nice swanky pad.

  78. Posted by viewlover

    Tom, why would you hear about people getting deposits back? Is this information that would be available to you for some reason? Do you work for the title company that handles the closings? I’m just asking because you sound so sure you would know this.

  79. Posted by movingback

    @ cooper – oh yes, I suppose you consider yourself the voice of credibility. Do you own a house now? Have you ever? Are you going to buy at the Infinity or ORH? Do you know anyone that has? Just curious.

  80. Posted by Phatty

    Phatty, were you looking at unit 4G in the infinity? They were asking something like $856/sqft ($1.13mn) for a 4th floor condo directly above the entrance to the tower, overlooking the intersection of Main and Spear and without balcony.
    How much were they quoting for a similar unit with balcony? I’d like to start tracking these prices as some come back to market.

  81. Posted by cooper

    @movingbak Yes I own a house and have owned several in my lifetime. So? I just dont make a habit of buying assets that have gone up 100% in 4 years. And I think people like Fluj that have made all these comments at those of us calling for this decline–and its more than 15% in some zips and 10% overall according to the latest stats so far ought to admit they were wrong. How dumb do you have to be to have not to have seen this coming? I mean come on, an asset inflates 100% in just a few years–more in some cases and you couldn’t see a 20-30% decline coming as reasonable. Even now poor fluj doesnt believe whats happening when the stats are staring people right in the face…and the humurous part is this in only the beginning its going to get MUCH worse. ORH with a 27% walkout rate for the cheap seats on the lower floor is a very bad sign. What happens when those people try and close those jumbo loans with those 5% down prequalifaction letters they used to get on their depoists. Think the 27% is gonna go up or down? What happens if it hits 40%…its gonna start lookign like miami especially as all this new inventory hits. All I gotta say is the govt better not come in and bail guys like fluj out…no tax payer dollars for people who made bad calls. Let the prices come down and let the crisis resolve. The more govt interference we get the longer this crisis is going to go on.

  82. Posted by Tom

    “Tom, why would you hear about people getting deposits back? Is this information that would be available to you for some reason? Do you work for the title company that handles the closings? I’m just asking because you sound so sure you would know this.”
    Good question.
    First, the thing I’m sure about is that they would get their deposits back. That’s the law and if that many people are walking away from that much money, at least one of them would have called a lawyer, be a lawyer, or do a bit of research.
    Second, I/we would almost certainly hear about it because it would not be confidential and would be something that would get out for the following obvious reasons. Maybe because one of the people posts on here or another site and wants to share the good news so others can walk away without fear, because One Rincon would want people to know so they can offer to have people walk away and sell the same unit for more money (as One Rincon Buyer points out, everyone is getting instant equity so why not the builder), or the one real estate agent that actually understands what a fiduciary duty is shares the information he learns with his other clients in the building (something they would be legally obligated to do if one client had the experience of getting back a deposit).
    So, as you can see, if One Rincon is currently selling these units for below market, the builder would be replacing buyers at higher sale prices, old buyers would get back their deposits, and we would ALMOST certainly hear about it.

  83. Posted by movingback

    @ Tom – I think you need to do quite a bit more research and not post any more erroneous information about this before you get the facts. There is NOT a LAW that says developers have to give deposits back for people who default on a purchase contract – quite the contrary. I suggest you check with the sources.

  84. Posted by tipster

    movingback,
    What’s your agenda? Tom did not say there was a LAW that developers have to give deposits back, what he said was that if the developer resells at a significantly higher price, the original buyer is entitled to an accounting of the full transaction, and would then likely have a very compelling case for the return of their deposit. This IS well known law, but maybe you are part of the developer group that wants to keep this secret away from some ignorant buyers that simply walk away from their deposit not knowing they may be entitled to get the deposit returned.
    Tom’s point was simple, straigtforward, and truthful, but was skipped over by many on this thread. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more conversation on this topic on any of the local blog sites.

  85. Posted by jamie

    The credit market is so FUBAR right now, I wouldn’t assume that the walkaways are folks who don’t want to move in – maybe just unable to get a loan. Student loans and municipal bonds aren’t getting sold because banks are so sensitive about keeping capital on hand right now…. throw out any “typical” measure you’re using right now. They’re meaningless.

  86. Posted by Tom

    movingback:
    I’m going to assume you read too fast and missed the statement that I made. I said they would get their deposits back if the builder was able to sell them for more money. That last part if is key. And, that is the law.
    More specifically (but still in general terms as to many specifics may just be more confusing), Cal. Civ. Code 1675 and associated statutes would allow the ex-buyer to get part of his deposit back. Under that law, when the liquidated damages clause (deposit) is greater than 3% (which it is) and the buyer defaults, the seller must preform an accounting within 60 days of close of escrow (of the new buyer). Factored into that accounting is the difference between the original agreed sale price and the final sale price (higher second sale price would wipe out any costs associated with the first buyer). If the liquidated damages are greater than the actual damages shown in the accounting, the builder must refund the liquidated damages until either they are equal or the damages are only 3%.
    So, as you see, my point is actually stronger when I get into the specifics. because the builder still gets to keep some of the deposit AND sell for a higher price in this false reality some people are constructing, you can sure as hell bet One Rincon would be more than happy to suggest people get out of their contract . . . maybe even offering to give back more than the law requires.
    I suggest you find a source . . .

  87. Posted by movingback

    @ Tom – my apologies. I did skim-read it too quickly and failed to catch your point. All of the double and triple posting, and post-sticking going on had my eyes crossed for a minute. I now see what you are saying and assume that in that case you might be correct.

  88. Posted by tipster

    Tom I understood that if there were no liquidated damages due to a higher sales price, the buyer could get the full deposit back. Are you saying even if there are no damages, the builder still keeps 3%?

  89. Posted by jakson

    Interesting so you can recover the funds if you hire a lawyer and probably pay him $5k for fees ? Is that what you are saying?
    Also, whats a good way to find out whats still available in ORH due to non-sales or re-sales of walkaways? Anyone have any quotes on new prices of units?
    I’m sure buyers are wondering if they really have equity or are actually underwater. Last batches of good units were selling for ~$1400/ft so I ponder if you could find a buyer like that in todays market.

  90. Posted by Paul Hwang

    People often ask me how much their units are worth. I always thought it would be capricious of me to pass judgement or determine a value even before setting foot in or looking at the unit. I would offer that same advice to everyone on this post. Here are some pics of a 1250 sf+ unit at One Rincon Hill: http://rincondaddy.com/425_1st_2103r.html
    Yeah, those are the views taken from the unit.

  91. Posted by pitofdespair

    “Tom’s point was simple, straigtforward, and truthful, but was skipped over by many on this thread. I’m surprised there hasn’t been more conversation on this topic on any of the local blog sites.”
    Thank you tipster – this is the ONE topic about which I have been looking for answers here and elsewhere because I am in the throes of having signed up for something (and pre-approved by the way) in July only to find that by December I was no longer so desirable as a borrower.
    Am I completely screwed out of my deposit because of these “liquidation damages?” I’m the same person I was in July when I was pre-approved and I plonked down my cash… If the bank no longer sees fit to lend to me because of market conditions when I was so desirable six months ago, is that really my fault?
    I’m a smart person – I even know how to spell for those of you who notice that type of thing – but I feel used and abused by this system and I really did plan to live in my new condo, finally be a homeowner in the city I love, etc.
    Am I just another stupid sucker?

  92. Posted by Robert

    Tom and others:
    The law in California is CLEAR on liquidated damages and return of security deposits:
    1. If the parties have initialed the liquidated damages clause, it means that if the buyer defaults and walks away, the seller gets to keep the buyer’s deposit, up to 3% of purchase price. This is the case even if the seller subsequently sells the unit for the same or a higher price. The idea is that the parties have pre-agreed that these are seller’s damages. Seller doesn’t need to prove its actual damages, just that the buyer breached. The benefit to buyer is that it only risks 3%. So even if the seller re-sells the unit for 10% less, the buyer has no further loss.
    2. If the parties have not initialed the liquidated damages clause, it means they have not pre-agreed on the consequences in the event of buyer default. Thus, if the seller re-sells the unit for the same or higher price, it has suffered no loss and must return the entire deposit to buyer. Conversely, if the seller re-sells the unit for a significantly lower price (e.g., 10% lower), it can retain buyer’s deposit and still sue the buyer for the remainder of its loss.
    I hope this clears it up for everyone. Yes I am an attorney, but I don’t yet play one on TV.

  93. Posted by Paul Hwang

    Robert,
    Would any real estate attorney representing a buyer recommend your example 1? The law is clear, but clearer still is the very legal definition of “deposit” and “damages” and also judges propensities to dislike liquidated damages. Moreover there is the troubling fact for the seller that you cannot have two escrows open at once on the same property. I think there is a clear coarse of action for any attorney that has been down this road before.
    I’m not an attorney, but am “internationally recognized and locally accepted” (Stole that one from u craig!).

  94. Posted by g

    pitofdespair would you mind sharing who you were lending with? So sorry to hear this happened, did you try other lenders?

  95. Posted by ex SF-er

    pitofdespair:
    (I AM NOT A LAWYER)
    read your contract. I brought up this exact possibility with friends of mine when they put down a contract for ORH. (they will be uber-housepoor the second they close, IF they get a loan, but they really wanted to stretch into their dream condo)
    I’ve been involved in pre-construction deals around the country during the boom years (NOT ORH or Infinity) and typically during the last few years the contracts were HEAVILY skewed towards the builder, which included them keeping the deposit even if the buyer couldn’t get a mortgage. In the end, the philosophy was that the builder shouldn’t be economically harmed if the buyer couldn’t fulfill their end of the bargain (e.g. close)
    your case would be one to run by a REAL lawyer. A RE contract lawyer would be best, right? Sure, you’re going to have legal fees, but I’m sure your deposit was quite large as well. Perhaps Robert knows a good RE contract lawyer? (is that against socketsite rules? I would hope not!)
    If ORH is really re-selling these failed closings for much higher prices then they may work with you. why not? it would be more money for them! I have my doubts about that claim though.
    keep us in touch, I’m very interested in the answer to your question, and I think a lot of other people would really benefit from your answer, either way!
    Good luck. And remember in the end: it is JUST MONEY. Yes, that money represents blood sweat and tears, but it can be replaced… Please look at it as “lesson learned” and not as “despair”!!!!

  96. Posted by Tom

    Right on Robert. But, don’t forget the key point of where this discussion where, if the deposit is over 3% (which it is in this case) and if there is a proper liquidated damages document as required by the law (which both Infinity and One Rincon have) then the builder has the obligation to do the accounting and the buyer can get back that money when it does.
    The point of my post was not to give legal advice or suggest that anyone would get their deposits back, however, it was to point out that it is unlikely the builder is selling these walked out on units for more. Nevertheless, if you are walking out, make sure you get your accounting within 60 days of the close of escrow on the final sale of the unit.
    Finally, as for the logistics on what to do, I’m an attorney and so are a few people on here, but you should talk to someone who specializes in this area. Most attorneys will talk with you about your options and probabilities for success without charging you. Also, you may find that, in certain circumstances, you may actually be able to get out of the entire contract and retain your entire liquidated damages. I have not researched what happens in nothing changes and you can’t get a loan, but I bet a good attorney could get you out of it.
    Good luck. And, I honestly think the best financial advice for both of these developments is to go forward with the purchase.

  97. Posted by tipster

    The posts from “tipster” at 10:30 pm and 10:42pm are not from me, though the first one may have been just cleverly adapted to look like it was. It’s OK to leave them up, as they did contribute to the thread.
    Whoever posted it, please pick a different name and let people know you’ve chosen it. We try to use one name per person so that people can keep us straight.

  98. Posted by fluj

    @cooper
    “and its more than 15% in some zips and 10% overall according to the latest stats so far ought to admit they were wrong.”
    Actually, the latest SF existing SFR stats showed a price gain. It was posted on here about three different times. I pointed out the different presentations of this stat between the Chron and S.S. It was widely discussed, dissected, median was broken down into zones to the point of nonsense, what have you. But everyone saw it.
    Didn’t stop you from making your blanket 15 % assertion, though.

  99. Posted by cooper

    @deflujional
    Straight off the price trends report from this week “In December, San Francisco slipped into negative double-digit territory with an annual return of -10.8%.”
    Wow you made my Saturday morning. That’s why people are walking away at a 27% rate from ORH which was priced like three years ago…because prices are going up! They must feel greedy pocketing all those paper profits given the starving children in Africa! If you are going to asserts that prices in San Francisco are going up as opposed to 10% down you need to go on TV and say something like that. Oh and guess what, January is going to be worse than -10.

  100. Posted by fluj

    Geez man, how do you really feel? I stand by what was reported both here and in the Chronicle. Are prices “going up” ? No. Was it reported that existing SFR medians increased 5.8% in January? Yes. Are you way ahead of the curve with your 15 % claim (which I see you have already changed to 10) ? Yes.

  101. Posted by tony

    socketsite… any hints on ORH building two in advance of monday? ;-)
    and while you reprimanded someone above for bringing it up, i believe (and i suspect others do too) it is very germane to the topic of closings in ORH & Infitity’s first towers.

  102. Posted by cooper

    Dear Deflujional,
    No I said 15% in some zips (as in zip codes) and 10% overall. Which is exactly what the stats show. You quoted me in your own blog post, can you not read what you wrote? And in a matter of weeks we may see 15 overall already–wouldn’t be surprised. As far as what you wrote–you never said they were flat, in fact you said “Actually, the latest SF existing SFR stats showed a price gain.” You can try and pick glimmers of hope from some random newspaper article but to say prices are going up, or are even holding steady in SFO is not a case anyone would publicly make with a straight face. Not even a corrupt NAR economist is brash enough to try and make those kinds of comments.

  103. Posted by The Milkshake of Despair

    pitofdespair – No, you’re not a “stupid sucker”. You listened to the professionals involved in the deal and went along with their implicit advice that you could afford your 1RH unit.
    Your situation points out that we should not let the RE and banking professionals put us too much at ease when signing big home purchase deals. They are only human and can’t be expected to predict the debt meltdown that is occurring.
    When I was actively writing offers on homes during 2005-07 I analyzed my finances and calculated what I felt I could comfortably afford. While I have no formal business background I’ve started up a couple small businesses that did quite well using my conservative accounting standards. My spending limit turned out to be just barely enough to afford a home in the SF neighborhoods that interested me.
    Of course what happened time and time again was that my offers were outbid and I never landed a contract even as I stretched to about 20% beyond my “comfortable upper limit”. As this happened both my agent and bank rep encouraged me to qualify for a larger loan so I could bid even higher. I have substantial assets and a good credit score that would allow me to qualify for a loan almost 2X higher than what my calculations showed I could afford !
    Fortunately I didn’t bite on the larger loan. In retrospect it would have killed my finances and I probably would lose at least one of my large assets (perhaps the house just “purchased” !)
    The moral is that it makes sense for every one of us to run our own numbers. Figure in the effects of events that could put pressure on your situation : loss of a job, interest rates adjusting upwards, emergency repairs, etc. If you can still survive those scenarios then you can rest well after you sign that 2 inch stack of docs.
    In the past this conservative strategy made many of us “losers” in bidding wars. It looks like that is now changing.
    Please heed Ex-SFer’s words. It is only money and in the grand scheme of things a small amount. You still have the skills and talent that was used to create that wealth. You’ll be over this soon enough.
    And look on the bright side : if you were able to qualify and buy the 1RH unit, you might find yourself more than 3% under water. Much more.

  104. Posted by fluj

    You first said 15%. Stop trying to hedge. You said 15, and then said I had a 100 percent lack of credibility for anything R.E. related. It’s right up ^^ there in black and white. Just do “Find on this page” “Cooper” and look at your own second post @ February 29, 2008 5:52 PM. OK?
    A random newspaper article? It was the Chron and this site, brah. I’m looking for stuff, yeah. Glimmers of hope. Pits of despair. Whatever is out there, I’m looking. I’m looking. I have a listing. I have buyers. I’m comparing reality and data versus what I read and hear people say.
    What I am not doing is making overarching blanket statements and then hedging.
    And again, your very tone was offbase in the first place. I myself was poking at the NAR for their saccharine outlook at everything.

  105. Posted by Mole Man

    cooper says All I gotta say is the govt better not come in and bail guys like fluj out…no tax payer dollars for people who made bad calls. Let the prices come down and let the crisis resolve. The more govt interference we get the longer this crisis is going to go on.

    Your swipe at fluj seems way off. All we know is that he is an agent. If you want to use an agent as part of a home selling or buying process that is up to you, but no one is putting a gun to your head and deciding when to buy and how much to spend and how the market as a whole is doing has always been the responsibility of the buyer. With luck an agent might be able to find you a listing or a buyer that you might have missed. That is all. They are just sales people, so get over it already.

    Regarding the government and the crisis, if the US housing stock recently valued at around $6 trillion takes a 30% dive that is $2 trillion dollars. The government is in no position to tax that and pay it out. Nouriel Roubini goes into much and better detail than I can, but the idea that the government is going to bail this mess out is as preposterous as your idea that agents caused this problem. There was a mania, and buyers were at the helm the whole way.

    Regarding the speed of the correction, there is some reason to believe you are totally wrong about faster being better. The Center for Economic and Policy Research has a detailed report on how this downturn is likely to impact labor markets. The sharper the correction the larger the expected disruption of labor markets and the longer it will last. This isn’t the 1800’s anymore, and there are serious implications to the rampant specialization that has led to our extreme productivity growth.

  106. Posted by cooper

    dear, dear, deflujuonal…the 10.8% is from December –it’s almost march. I’d guess it’s 15% down at least by now. if I were to hedge on where real estate were going, I would not be hedging that is going up!And if some chronicle piece shows some stats from two time periods (non seasonally adjusted sequential or something else useless) that makes it look like prices are going up to you–then you should keep drinking that cool aid. Prices were down 10.8% yoy period. Buyers are still in the “denial” stage. A condition non too unfamiliar to you I’d wager. As far as why I described the Chronicle as a “random” paper -as far as real estate they are a crappy source for data analysis…the writers are not very good nor are they very well versed on statistics or economics. Show me something in the WSJ or a specific real estate study. If feel good stats from the Chronicle are where you get your information from it’s no wonder you have been so far off on what’s happening in real estate. How you get prices are up when December –3 months ago almost is down 10.8% for the “Blanket Overall” city of San Francisco is just beyond me. Maybe it’s mix eh? A rounding error? Maybe it’s up if you take out foreclosures? I’ll go on record right now…December I say is -10.8–you say flat to up. March–when reported will show -15%–and you can leave your projection at flat to up.

  107. Posted by fluj

    Both the Chron and this site used the same Case-Shiller numbers everybody so loves to seize upon, man. Yourself included. I’ve illustrated my point more than once, I’ve pointed out what you said, etc. It’s “welcome to 15″ it’s “10” “it was 10.8 in December and I bet it’s 15 by now.” whatever. Not SFRs, and that’s what I’ve said.
    But this is now plainly boring. I’m going to enjoy my Saturday. But congrats for bringing “mean anon” into the mix as well. I always sort of liked the Coca Cola slurpees but I think I will stop short of applying for a job at 7-11.
    [Editor’s Note: Referenced comment by “mean anon” was removed.]

  108. Posted by viewlover

    Strangely, this thread is starting to remind me of the movie “THE WOMEN”.

  109. Posted by Miles

    Ah, nothing like a good ‘ol ORH post to get everyone in a tizzy. As far as the ratio of closings versus cancellations, I think the cancellations were front loaded so that anyone who was sure they could not or did not want to perform on their contract told them early on before they entered the closing process. I’d be very surprised if a ratio anywhere near the current number of cancellations to closings continues through the entire sellout. And ORH Buyer who is doing a cash out refi…take the money and run – lenders consider new projects without a multi-year resale history to be very risky – especially before half of the building has sold (and closed) – 3% deposits are not the same thing as a building full of closed sales and an active resale history. If they agreed to give you a cash out refi on a building that isn’t even half sold & closed – well, that’s being pretty aggressive from their part. And I have a pretty good knowledge of the big banks lending activities and “expertise” and I’m thoroughly unimpressed – in the past decade lending standards have gone out the window. These loans and their risk has been offloaded downstream which has caused big banks to act more like aggressive mortgage brokers rather than conservative financial institutions backed by the federal government.

  110. Posted by Robert

    A couple more observations for Mr. “Cash Out Refi” and others:
    1. First of all, how can you do a “cash out refi” when you haven’t even closed? Do you mean that you are buying the unit with one loan and then immediately taking out that loan with another loan? That seems pretty bizarre (double loan fees and double loan closing costs, among other things), why wouldn’t you just buy the property in the first place using the lender who’s valued your property $150K higher than your purchase price?? That way you just put down less in the first place instead of putting it in and pulling it out? What are we missing here?
    2. An important note on California law to all – California has “anti-deficiency” legislation that protects a buyer on a purchase mortgage from being pursued by a lender for its “deficiency” if the buyer’s equity is wiped out and the lender still has a loss. Other states don’t have this type of law – hence the stories about lenders in Texas tracking down homeowners who have abandoned their homes and suing them for the deficiency.
    But note that this California law ceases to protect homeowners on refinanced loans in California. So once you refi, the lender has the complete right to sue you, up to the full amount of the loan, for its losses.
    So be careful on unnecessary refinancings . . .

  111. Posted by ex SF-er

    Yeah…
    the cash out refi story is fishy at best.
    it doesn’t even make sense.

  112. Posted by anon

    tipster, I’m the one who posted earlier with the name tipser, I was not trying to impersonate you or anything, I thought that was a generic name, I will stick with anon until I think of a name. Sorry!
    I would suggest anyone who walked from a deposit read Civil code 1675-1681 carefully.
    Get your accounting from the builder and share it with socketsite. You can probably get all of your deposit back. Ask one of the lawyers for some help.

  113. Posted by movingback

    I had some friends that attempted to sue a developer on a new project (in another state, not California) to try and get their deposit back not too long ago. The amount was somewhere close to $80,000. They found themselves in a situation where they went to contract on the property long before ground had been broken – with the intentions of selling their current house for a certain amount. Market started to turn, and then slid down quickly. Developer finished new house. Purchaser could not sell current house – after months on the market and reducing the price over and over – ultimately decided to stay put. Developer re-sold new house at a slightly higher price – my friends had an attorney and tried to take on the developer to get their deposit back – spend thousands in legal fees – finally had to give up and accept the $80,000 loss.
    I’m not so sure that the same thing would not happen here. I heard it before as well.

  114. Posted by movingback

    @ Paul Hwang – thanks for the photos from inside the unit at ORH. Those views are absolutely, positively amazing. Wow!

  115. Posted by kernelboy

    I found this list of rentals in ORH etc. by following Paul Hwang’s link. Given the prices that were paid by the buyers of these apartments, is there any way that thay are breaking even? Why are there so many for rent already? Paul?
    http://rincondaddy.com/index.html

  116. Posted by Jimmy (Bitter Renter)

    When those rentals get down to $3k/mo for a 2/2 (i.e. “the market” more or less), then they’ll have a chance of getting some tenants in. Maybe $3500 due to the view, but $5000/mo for a 2/2? In that crummy backwater neighborhood (I know, in 10 years it’ll be “Hot” as Paris would say). Good luck getting that kind of money, year-after-year to make your “investment” cashflow.
    Just not gonna happen.

  117. Posted by infinity buyer

    I think the achilles heel for One Rincon is that the building is built like an apartment building. There are way too many 1 bedroom units.
    Out of 370 units, approx. 200 are 1 Bedrooms, and only 170 are 2-3 bedrooms. The Avalon apartments buildings in Mission Bay are built this way too.
    At Infinity, There are around 240 total units in the tower.
    Only 38 are 1 bedrooms, 200+ are 2-3 bedrooms.
    Given these numbers, it’s not hard to see how One Rincon will attract a lot more investors and renters, while Infinity may attract more primary residence and second home buyers.
    On a side note, a 2 bedroom corner stack on the 20-something floor at Infinity just rented for $5000.00. I inquired about this unit on Craigslist and the owner said he already rented it for asking price.

  118. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    “Yeah…
    the cash out refi story is fishy at best.
    it doesn’t even make sense.”
    Ex SF-er,
    You might want to buy yourself a clue before mouthing off, else end up looking like a fool. Then again, perhaps your used to that scenario, hence your callous rhetoric. The situation I described is not only entirely plausible, makes fiscal sense for us, but also happens to be true.
    Robert – where did you get the idea that we hadn’t closed? Your reading comprehension may need some work. I’ll try to keep the details brief so you and ex-Sfer can follow it a little better. Use a dictionary for the big words.
    We came across a party that had put down a 3% deposit at 2006 pre-construction rates at ORH Tower I, but come the time for closing [2/2008]his financial situation had changed, and he was no longer able to consumate the transaction. He wanted to get his deposit back [and understood that if he failed to close, he would lose it] and we wanted to avail of his favorable price. As a result, he had something that we wanted [great price] and he wanted something from us … a return of his deposit.
    However, ORH would not allow him to assign his rights under his contact. As a result, with the help of a R.E. attorney to draft the documentation before closing, we essentially closed on the property ‘in partnership’ with the party that paid the deposit. We were 99% tenant in common owners at closing, he was a 1% owner, as per agreement. Very shortly after closing [one day actually] per our agreement, we ‘bought’ out his 1% stake in a mannner that returned to him his deposit. At the same time he quitclaimed his interest in the property.
    “why wouldn’t you just buy the property in the first place using the lender who’s valued your property $150K higher than your purchase price?” –
    The bank will only close on the value of the ‘purchase price’, that being the pre-construction rate that our ‘partner’ locked in. The fact that the property may be worth more didn’t make a difference. The appraisal at closing was $150K higher than our purchase price. Hence now that we OWN the unit, we can do a cash out/refi, given that this option makes most sense for us financially right now, despite the dual costs.
    Why not just let the owner default and ‘claim’ the unit thereafter? Two reasons – first, relisted units at ORH have a higher price than the pre-construction rates. In addition, as Tito pointed out [although a few morons here told him that was impossible] there is a waiting list for 2/2 units. ORH is not sold out, but I believe all remaining units are 1 bedrooms. If you want 2/2 units, there are plenty languishing at the Infinity. So, for both of the aforementioned reasons, hiring a R.E. attorney, closing, then looking at refi options was the best option for us, given the circumstances.
    Is it making sense now Ex-SFer, or do I need to speak more slowly?? And yes, my tone is necessary, because I don’t appreciate being depicted as a liar.

  119. Posted by Ozzie

    31 closed at Infinity as of Friday. 84% sold or in contract.

  120. Posted by anon

    “On a side note, a 2 bedroom corner stack on the 20-something floor at Infinity just rented for $5000.00. I inquired about this unit on Craigslist and the owner said he already rented it for asking price.”
    @ Jimmy (very bitter renter):
    Sorry but you just got schooled!

  121. Posted by Jimmy (Bitter Renter)

    @anon: ok, fine. But that’s only one example. A 54th floor 2/2 at ORH is asking $12,000/mo. Its probably special in some way (like, say, being really high up).
    When the average rental 2/2 in ORH or Infinity is renting for $5000/mo, for multiple years with low vacancy rates, then I’ll concede to “getting schooled.”
    The current scenario might be equated to people paying $5000 extra for a Mini Cooper when they were first re-introduced back in ’03 or was it ’02? It was the hot new toy when it first arrived, but the excitement wore off pretty quick.

  122. Posted by anon

    FWIW, I could put any listing for a 2/2 on craigslist for $10,000/mo and then tell anyone who calls “Sorry, rented out for asking.”

  123. Posted by John

    anon,
    Why not put a listing for 2/2 on craigslist for $5000/mo and then tell us how many people called and asked to rent it?

  124. Posted by Tom

    Recent ORH buyer
    I think your story is doubted by many because your essentially claiming your unit has gone up $150k. That is highly suspect in light of (a) this down market, (b) people are walking away from their deposit presumably based on a financial position that they are better off walking away than buying a depreciated asset or, in the alternative, that they cannot find someone to partner with them to buy the asset, and (c) the inefficient structure you chose for your financial maneuvering (especially in light of an attorney being involved).
    I’m going to give you the benefit of the doubt here, however, and assume your not lying. Because I do believe you, I feel bad because someone is seriously misleading you and taking advantage of you. Not to mention the fact that you are losing protection of your other assets by refinancing in this declining market.
    best of luck.

  125. Posted by John

    Wow, a lot of sour grapes here.

  126. Posted by John

    BTW, now the much hated thefrontsteps has more quotes from the article.
    http://www.thefrontsteps.org/profiles/blog/show?id=2010353%3ABlogPost%3A451
    “The unit [that fell out of contract] at the Infinity went immediately into contract at a higher price and has closed escrow. At One Rincon, the average price per square foot has jumped from $900 when most of the units went into contract 18 months ago to an average of $1,004 a square foot now, according to developer Mike Kriozere. In one case, a buyer who walked away from a $2.1 million penthouse was replaced by someone willing to spend $2.6 million for the unit.”
    OK, if someone has subscription to San Francisco Business Times, please share the whole article, so we have a complete picture instead of sound bites.

  127. Posted by Can't think of cool name

    Can anybody comment on pitofdespair’s situation about the bank no longer wanting to loan the money, due to a change in economic environment, not the lendee’s personal situation? Granted, the banks want to hold on to their money right now, but isn’t there a chance that these same banks may “lose” some of that money due to lawsuits? If pitofdespair can prove that they can still make the payments originally agreed to then, but the bank now says “sorry, but things have changed and you’re out of luck, even though its not your fault,” that sounds a little weird. There’s lots of comments on this thread about going after the builder to recoup the money. Can pitofdespair go after the lending bank?

  128. Posted by anon

    Hey John – The SF Biz Times makes it kinda tough to post articles (electronic version is a password protected pdf file) – but it’s a pretty short article so here is a summary:
    – Article states that “thus far” at ORH 40 units have closed escrow and 17 residents have moved in. At Inf, 11 have closed and “a handful” have moved in. No attribution as to the source of these figures.
    – ORH sales manager Ann Dykstra said that move-ins will be spaced to get “full service” and that a max of 3 per day will move in.
    – Regarding the credit market issues, the article states that “so far the big concern – that dozens of buyer would be unable to secure financing – has not materialized”.
    – Per ORH sales manager Dykstra, “of the 390 units at ORH, 15 buyers who were in contract have walked away from their deposits”.
    – Per Carl Shannon, Managing Director of Tishman Speyer, “just one buyer has given up his deposit”.
    – The article then stated that the unit at the Infinity “went immediately into contract at a higher price and has closed escrow”.
    – The article then stated “At One Rincon, the average price per sf has jumped from $900 when most of the units went into contract 18 months ago to an average of $1,004 per sf now, according to developer Mike Kriozere. In one case, a buyer who walked away from a $2.1 million penthouse was replaced by someone willing to spend $2.6 million for the unit.”
    – a final quote of note, “The market in San Francisco proper has been incredibly robust, said Shannon. We are down to a very limited inventory of units.”
    That’s pretty much the jist of the article except for a story about a guy and his dog who are “happy to give up their 3000 sf house in South SF to move into a 750 sf unit at ORH”. The guy says that he is “happier and my dog is happier”. Keep in mind though that the dog was not directly quoted (my suspicion is that he/she/it liked the big house better). Of course as you might have guessed, the article was was written in the boosterish – if not quite breathless – prose that is typical in these types of journals.

  129. Posted by anon

    One other point from the Biz Times article, note that language used Dykstra (the 15 buyers “walked away from their deposits”) and Shannon (the one buyer who “has given up his deposit”). Doesn’t sound like these walkers are getting any part of their deposits back – even though Shannon is bragging about reselling the unit at immediately at a higher price.

  130. Posted by infinity buyer

    “On a side note, a 2 bedroom corner stack on the 20-something floor at Infinity just rented for $5000.00. I inquired about this unit on Craigslist and the owner said he already rented it for asking price.”
    @ Jimmy (very bitter renter):
    Sorry but you just got schooled!”
    Jimmy,
    I’m curious as to why he would lie? I emailed the owner pretending to be interested in renting the unit and he kindly replied the unit has been rented and thanked me for the interest. Why is it so hard to believe there could be honest people out there?
    The upper floor 2 bedroom units at The Avalon at Mission Bay are renting for $4500+/month. And their building tops out at 15 stories and the amenities are way inferior to Infinity. The Paramount on Mission St. rents their 2 bedroom apartments anywhere from $4500 to $7500. Golden Gate Commons is also in the neighborhood of $5000. Believe it or not, but $5000 is not high for high rise living in downtown SF.
    If I had to choose from any of these buildings to rent for $5000, I’d go with Infinity, hands down.
    Of course I’m a buyer so I’m bias :-)

  131. Posted by Recent ORH Buyer

    “I think your story is doubted by many because your essentially claiming your unit has gone up $150k. That is highly suspect in light of (a) this down market, (b) people are walking away from their deposit presumably based on a financial position that they are better off walking away than buying a depreciated asset or, in the alternative, that they cannot find someone to partner with them to buy the asset, and (c) the inefficient structure you chose for your financial maneuvering (especially in light of an attorney being involved).”
    Tom, I think it’s time to admit that you are clueless. In order to believe your unsubstantiated, repeated rantings, we would all have to believe the entire loan/mortgage system at Bank of America, as well as their appraisors don’t know what they are talking about. In addition, John’s quote from the SF Business Times is on point –
    “At One Rincon, the average price per sf has jumped from $900 when most of the units went into contract 18 months ago to an average of $1,004 per sf now, according to developer Mike Kriozere. In one case, a buyer who walked away from a $2.1 million penthouse was replaced by someone willing to spend $2.6 million for the unit.”
    I suppose the SF Biz Times are in on the conspiracy as well … or perhaps the developer is lying, or perhaps you are just pissed off that you didn’t get in on this. By the way, where exactly do you own property?
    The facts – People who are ‘defaulting’ on their units at ORH are most often doing so because now the banks may want 10-20% down. However, when these parties originally put down their deposits, a lesser sum might well have sufficed, and they can’t come up with the “extra” downpayment now required. Lending standards have changed, and if they can’t finance, opportunistic individuals that ‘take over’ for them may have a deal on their hands. It’s nothing to do with a depreciating asset – your premise is simply wrong!
    You see Tom, if units were priced at perhaps below market levels at pre-construction time, they could go up, even if the the overall market has declined … which for condo prices in SF is debatable. There is no question that prices in the overall Bay Area are down. There is probably a fair argument that prices in SF overall have gone down, in large part due to single family homes. However, condo prices are one segment of the market that has certainly held up better than others. In SF they have declined from their lofty Summer 2007 peaks, but I believe they may have had a slight positive return [albeit minimal] for 2007 overall. The real estate market does have segments, and while most housing segments are down, not every one of them has tanked, as you simplisticly believe is the case, based on overall trends.
    With the Infinity pricing many of their obscured view, white kitchen units at 1000 per sq ft, if one locked in prices at $725 per square foot at ORH [like we managed to] with views, hardwood floors and a kitchen of our choice, that property is undoubtedly worth more today than the purchase price paid.
    Tom – you are yet another person that needs to get a clue before commencing your rants!!

  132. Posted by Tom

    Recent . . .
    I really do hope you are right. Having gotten a number of mortgages, I’m quite sure that the broker I worked with (who worked for the banks) was always doing the best he could to get around restrictions the bank has put in place in order to get the deal done. I’ve gotten a few mortgages I should not have gotten and ones the broker and I both understood to be a bad move for the bank and a risky move for me. Nevertheless, those on the front lines are rewarded for funding mortgagees, and that is it.
    Either way, 5 years from now I have no doubt that your unit will be worth much more than it is today and, even if it is overvalued by the bank today, your getting a sweet deal by pulling out some money today and likely not ending up underwater 5 years from now.

  133. Posted by anon sf

    Recent ORH buyer,
    You sound very bitter and angry. But there’s no need for personal attacks (calling people clueless, foolish and dumb).
    Attack the topics, not the person.
    And talk about ranting, you need to re-read all your past postings, then you’ll realize the only one ranting is YOU.
    These people are making constructive criticism (esp Tom) and you should take them with a grain of salt and not attack them.
    Peace.

  134. Posted by anon

    “It’s nothing to do with a depreciating asset – your premise is simply wrong!”
    Hilarious………

  135. Posted by anon

    “Either way, 5 years from now I have no doubt that your unit will be worth much more than it is today”
    Absolutely! Thing is that by then a gallon of gasoline will be at $7, 1 Euro will cost $2.5 and your salary will still be the same – in USD that is. But you’ll always have the views (which are priceless anyway).

  136. Posted by anon sf

    Wow, does One Rincon really have 200 1 bed units?
    I wonder what was the developer’s intent when they decided to allocate over 200 units as 1 bed and Jr 1 beds? The only thing I could think of is they intended to rent them or have investors rent them. Or they wanted the option to make it an apartment complex if the whole condo thing didn’t work out.
    I honestly don’t know many people that would want to make their primary residence as a Jr 1 bedroom. Is there any other high rise condo towers in the city that has that many 1 bedroom units?
    Recent ORH buyer, what’s your take?

  137. Posted by viewlover

    OK, admit it, at $725 psf, this guy got a deal. Much better than Palms or Infinity Soma Grand, and all the other high-rises and new construction at $1,000. Congratulations. How high up are you and what directions are your views?

  138. Posted by arlo

    I agree – $725 psf seems like a good deal now and into the future (at least the near future). I think that the issue is that with housing cratering all around us, if (or when) the big declines finally hit SF, will these places still sell for $1K psf? I know that construction costs are $600+ psf or whatever, but there is no rational reason why high density condos need to be priced at $1K psf. They should be 1/2 that.

  139. Posted by cooper

    LOL ORH Home buyer looks super duper angry. Everyone is “clueless”. Hmm, I wonder where i could buy a clue? Is it at ORH? Or are all their clues in FORECLOSURE. hehehe..just kidding…I do thing that 725 if its for a +25 upper floor with an ocean view is a VERY good deal if thats what you got. Even with prices going down a bunch one would sure HOPE they do not go down that much.

  140. Posted by movingback

    Cooper – your comment was out of line. I don’t blame ORH buyer for getting defensive with all of those who are posting on her basically trashing the place he is going to be, and probably looking forward to, calling home.
    As for all of the rentals on CraigsList? I’ll bet they are taken soon. Have you guys seriously seen the rental inventory in SF? Quite a few dumps, that’s for sure. Certainly not a lot of luxury buildings with amenities. And the views from ORH as well as Infinity are pretty spectacular. Most of the exclusively rental developments in Mission Bay / SOMA are are at 100% occupied – Avalon at Mission Bay, Edgewater, etc.

  141. Posted by SkyGuy

    Quoth anon: I honestly don’t know many people that would want to make their primary residence as a Jr 1 bedroom. Is there any other high rise condo towers in the city that has that many 1 bedroom units?
    There are high rises and then there are high rises. I think it’s possible that, 4 or 5 years ago, back in the planning stages, the developer thought he would play it safe by having lots of 1BR units. We’ll see what happens in Tower Two, but I’ll bet you anything that there will be far fewer 1BRs, because in the intervening years, they learned that the market for 2BR and 3BR units in this place is very strong.
    Also, not all the units will be their owners’ primary residence. Face it: this is San Francisco. There are people who have ample funds, with homes in several places, who want a fabulous pied a terre here. Infinity has its studio apartments; those are not all likely to be primary residences, either.
    Of course, another reason someone might buy a 1BR Junior is that the buyer is junior (:-), has enough income from stock options or whatever, and wants to live in a seriously cool place. Or they’re literally “Jr.”, attending school here, and the wealthy parents thought this would be the best place for their kid to live. I’ve seen that in other cities.
    Me, I only needed a 1BR, but I have a piano, so a 2BR it was!

  142. Posted by John

    cooper, you are the one out of line here. You have been calling people’s names and using personal attackes yourself. Actually, at least in this thread, most of your comments are personal attacks.
    And come on, we all know Recent ORH Buyer got a good deal. Have any of you bought an pre-construction unit before? It is often at 20% discount. It is not for everyone because of the long wait. However, Recent ORH Buyer got a pre-construction price without the long wait. If you don’t call that a deal, I don’t know what it is.
    And all the people who want to see SF dropping 30%….. Well, he got a deal at at least 25% discount RIGHT NOW, without waiting for whatever you say the great crash (which nobody knows if/when would happen).
    That’s why I said sour grapes. I am the first to admit, I wish I was in his shoes.
    Regarding the rentals. I am just amazed at the denial here. Park Merced rents renovated 8th floor 2/2 tower apartments for $2800, and their inventory is minimum. You tell me if a brand new 20th floor 2/2 at ORH/Infinity is worth 70% more rent, with new furnishes, higher floor, better view, and walking distance to downtown (instead of walking distance to SFSU).
    BTW, I am not an ORH or Infinity owner, and I am not interested in high-rise living at this moment. So, no, I am not defensive. Just trying to be fair.
    Congrats, recent ORH buyer. You got a great deal, and enjoy your new home. Post some photos when you get a chance (if not on SS, there are other SF RE blog sites).

  143. Posted by ex SF-er

    Recent ORH buyer:
    first, my apologies. your story sounded fishy to me, so I voiced it. Others also thought the same thing. Your cash out refi story is definitely atypical as well, don’t you agree? (quite the vitriolic response by the way… LOL!)
    two last points of clarification:
    1) have you closed on your ORH unit? (so the deed is now in your name, or at least the deed is in the 99%/1% TIC structure)
    2) have you closed on your cash-out refinance?
    I was under the mistaken impression that you were on one of the higher floors and that only lower floors had closed/moved in as of yet. again, my apologies.
    ===
    as for your claims:
    overall:
    A better indication IMO that your unit has appreciated is that another unit ON YOUR FLOOR just sold for 90k more than yours, NOT your appraisal.
    Your appraisal is worthless. there are too many appraisal games. Look at all the Craigslist RE listings with “INSTANT EQUITY!!!!”
    One game I’m seeing recently is this: changing the appraisal so that the loan can be sold off to Fannie or Freddie.
    as example:
    Home loan: 800k.
    owner equity: 0
    needs to refinance:
    not allowed… too high of LTV (100%)
    so new appraisal values home at $1Million.
    now borrower has 20% equity!!!!
    This is called “hit the number”. now the loan can be sold to Fannie/Freddie.
    (don’t think this is happening, then WHY DID FANNIE JUST SEND A LETTER TO ALL THE BIG LENDERS THAT IN-HOUSE APPRAISERS ARE NO LONGER ALLOWED??? I assure you it wasn’t for giggles)
    this was discussed here on socketsite.
    as for this line:
    Tom, I think it’s time to admit that you are clueless. In order to believe your unsubstantiated, repeated rantings, we would all have to believe the entire loan/mortgage system at Bank of America, as well as their appraisors don’t know what they are talking about.”
    How can you possibly believe that the appraisors/BofA are any good at valuing property in the midst of one of the largest real estate contractions in recent memory!!! Think about it, almost EVERY appraisal done on a sale in South Florida in 2006 was WAY overvalued. Those properties in SoFl are now down 10-20% from peak in just a few years!
    Banks lent too much money to people who couldn’t afford it on an overvalued asset. and they cherry picked appraisors who would “hit the number”. It is a commonly accepted problem.
    using your argument, there is no Floria or California or Arizona or Nevada problem, because the banks would have properly valued those units…
    BofA just put $2Billion into COUNTRYWIDE for goodness sakes! Countrywide which until mid-2007 was writing the worst loans in the nation, and using appraisers to figure out “value”!!!
    you can’t possibly believe that BofA properly valued RE when they sunk $2Billion into Countrywide, can you? nobody on Earth thinks that!

  144. Posted by anon

    I recently moved into the Infinity, still a work in progress but the unit and the gym and the service is great!
    I think I saw the poor ORH owner with the dog mentioned in the SF business times article, trudging up the hill to the lobby with his dog, past the construction, with the trucks whizzing by on the freeway 10 feet away. Where is walking his dog I wonder?
    And as an aside, I’ve had two different people tell me that they hated the ORH building location/finishes (REALLY!), but were buying them for investments. I think that’s the sad truth. The building is going to be full of investors/renters.

  145. Posted by anon

    “I recently moved into the Infinity, still a work in progress but the unit and the gym and the service is great!”
    Hey,
    I’ll be moving into the Infinity this weekend. Do you mind sharing more about what is and is not complete. On my recent walkthrough I was dissapointed that the common areas were not further along. The gym did look great, but there were only 4 treadmills and I had expected 10. Also, the cealing was not complete and, to go to the gym, was like walking through the back halls of a mall. Any recent changes?

  146. Posted by JKD

    Just to clarify the numbers in my Business Times story. The sales office said 30 closed on Feb. 22. During an interview a few days later developer Mike Kriozere said 40, so I went with that number. J.K. Dineen

  147. Posted by anon

    Do you mind sharing more about what is and is not complete.
    The gym is complete, they are still working on the locker rooms (should be done today). The pool is ALMOST ready. There’s construction workers still around. My main concern was a few deficiencies in the unit itself, but I will say that they staff is VERY responsive.

  148. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    Ex-SFer,
    You are right, B of A has made some colossal mistakes, as have all of the large lending institutions, almost across the board. However, I have made the point earlier that all of these institutions have not been in business for as long as they have by replicating the same errors over and over. I’m inclined to believe that their practises must have changed. For example, in my appraisal, my unit was compared to a 2/2 on around the 10th-14th floor of the Brannan, which was around 1250 sq. ft. and sold for 1.2m in October 2007. My unit is brand new, has greater square footage and comparable views, while the Brannan is 7 years old, although it is a great building. Using that number to ‘value’ my unit at 1.07m doesn’t seem dramatically out of line, don’t you think?
    In terms of the Countrywide situation, it’s a little more complicated than that. Simply put, B of A has had a ‘pretty close’ relationship with Countrywide, such that they have several [perhaps 4-6] billion dollars at stake if Countrywide goes down. They are caught between a rock and a hard place – either invest $2b and try to right the ship, or walk away and lose [potentially] a couple of times that number. Mistakes were definitely made, creating a difficult predicament. However, I have to believe that their practises must change going forward … to many bright minds there for that not to happen.
    To all –
    To be fair, I don’t have a high floor at ORH. We have a unit in the low to mid 10s. However, the 725 per sq ft. does included the costs of upgraded hardwood flors in the large living/dining area, custom walk in and linen closets, upgraded carpets in bedrooms and upgraded shower stalls. The unit has a panoramic view of South Beach and the South Beach marina. We get great sunrises and ‘partial’ Twin Peaks sunsets. The thing about ORH is that being at the top of the hill one doesn’t need to be that high to get great views. However, to be fair, those higher than us have it even more spectacular. However, I’d be happy to share some photos for each individual to judge.
    I concede that prices could go down, but I feel we have a pretty good ‘buffer’, given that we won’t even think about going anywhere for 3+ years.
    Sorry if I have seemed a little defensive about a couple of posts. I don’t get that way if someone writes and informed opinion, even if I don’t agree with them. However, knee-jerk blanket statements that are really wide of the mark tend to get me going :-) And, there are more than a few of those on this site.
    Last points – We have closed on our unit and the deed now has my fiance and I as holding 100% of title. We are awaiting the 50 bps Fed rate cut on March 18th, plus the new conforming loans [as high as $730,000] to start rolling out before moving forward with a refi.
    John –
    You are correct in your assessment of the opportunity that we managed to seize. I will concede that it is the rare exception to the rule, and we feel lucky to have stumbled upon it. Thanks for helping to set the record straight.
    Anon sf –
    I think you are right. As I’ve said during a seperate thread, I do think the developer at ORH miscalculated by having so many 1 bedrooms at ORH I. I’m guessing there may be a greater financial upside for selling units in this manner. It will lead to more rentals, which is not positive for the building. Tower II will have far fewer 1 bedrooms I imagine. Nonetheless, given the “spread” in cost per sqare footage between Infinity and ORH, I still think ORH is a superior value proposition. Recent updates indicate that 16% of the Infinity remains unsold, while it’s around 3% at ORH … all one bedrooms, I believe. Those that paid $1000+ per sq. ft will feel the pain if a fire sale occurs on the remaining Infinity inventory. The clock is ticking on Tower II sales, and something has got to give.

  149. Posted by ex SF-er

    recent ORH buyer: I hope we’re at peace now. Again, my apologies for doubting your story previously.
    also: 725/sq ft is quite a deal. My friends (albeit in 1 BRs in higher floors) are paying $950-1150/sq ft (actually $1120/sq ft to be more precise). So that to me shows that you got a great deal.
    This is what caused my confusion. I erroneously thought you were higher level and also not yet closed. As example, if my friend’s unit appreciates $150k, then it would be $1340/sq ft… so it was erroneous assumptions on my part. causing me to be WRONG. (smile)
    I wish nobody harm at either ORH or Infinity, least of all you. if you read through my posts you will find that I have said very little negative about ORH or infinity except for thinking the striped side of ORH is ugly, and that the kitchen cabinets aren’t spaced correclty (causing a gash in the wood near the fridge).
    I have also hypothesized that they will be a harbinger of the SF RE market, and that it is possible that they may not close well, or get first tower built. But never did I say “blood in the streets for ORH owners and it’s a shit building”. that’s other posters. I can see why that would get old.
    as I said above, I personally hope they both do well, because this will encourage more high rise building in the Rincon Hill neighborhood. I have had 2 key agendas for SF for quite some time:
    1. build more buildings (more supply)
    and
    2. more trees.
    ORH/infinity failing don’t help with my agenda (#1)
    also: as I’ve stated several times, some VERY close people to me are scheduled to close later this year. they would very possibly go BK if values there fall for any appreciable time period. I have no interest in that.
    as for appraisals: I totally distrust all appraisals including your and including mine. I have no idea if your appraisal is good or not (it may be). however, as I also said, the IMPORTANT info you gave was that another similar unit in your building sold for $90k more than you paid.
    THAT is great info that ORH appreciated since you/previous buyer signed contract.
    i’ll give you my appraisal story.
    When I bought my house (2003) the appraisal came in at 5% higher than my purchase price. So the Realtor said “wow, your house already went up 5% in just 1 week!” Hearing this my neighbor got an appraisal in order to do cash out for a kitchen(smaller house, less nice) and it came back at 5% above my value. This would mean that my house appreciated 10% in 1 week! (it did not, there is no way I could have sold that house for 10% more than I paid).
    Appraisals almost always come in higher than purchase price/appraisal price, they have to or the deal won’t go through. this is what caused the rampant fraud. lenders pressure appraisers to inflate the value to make the deal go through. and many people (not just me) are concerned that the fraud continues. Including the AG of New York, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac…
    one last time: my apologies. although I’m bearish on RE and I THINK (not know, think) we’ll see hard times ahead, it doesn’t mean that I wish anyone harm. and again, I too am a homeowner. so being bearish on RE hurts ME too.

  150. Posted by cooper

    I think the views at ORH are top notch….and the neighborhood in 2-3 years will be much nicer. Finger to the wind, I’d say 725 is decent like I said before. I’d guess over the next few years you might have a downside of 15-20% but not much further than that unless the US goes into depression or something (which sadly is possible). On a positive note, I’ve heard rumors that florida is stabilizing at much lower prices. If it holds that could be bullish. My bigger worry for ORH–with so many fallots what happens to hoa dues? I mean does the builder cover it if a lot of untis go unsold for a very extended period?

  151. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    Ex-Sfer –
    We are indeed at peace and all is right with the world, at least for today :-) Apology accepted and I hope mine is too for being a bit aggressive with my responses.
    A few tidbits – Although it looks like it will be a while, ORH does plan to have more trees, positioned to block the ‘lovely’ onramp view. They also plan some on the sidewalk along Harrison. I agree, all very welcome.
    In terms of cabinet spacing, that outcome may vary by unit … we don’t have anything like that in our 2/2, but it may be an issue for certain 1 bedroom units.
    One contrast with your appraisal story. The buyer that put down the original deposit [whom we ‘teamed up’ with] did so in mid-2006. So, when our appraisal was higher than the purchase price, it means that the unit has appreciated since mid 2006 – that’s 18+ months to rise in value as opposed to one week. The one week “instant equity” stories are definitely bogus and reflect the type of abuses that have led to the subprime crisis. However, given the extended time frame for appreciation, plus my own assessment of the comparables [albeit an amateur one] I don’t believe that the appraisal that we received is dramatically out of line.

  152. Posted by infinity buyer

    “I’ll be moving into the Infinity this weekend. Do you mind sharing more about what is and is not complete. On my recent walkthrough I was dissapointed that the common areas were not further along. The gym did look great, but there were only 4 treadmills and I had expected 10. Also, the cealing was not complete and, to go to the gym, was like walking through the back halls of a mall. Any recent changes?”
    I believe much has changed since your walkthru. The gym is just about done. The pool looks ready for use. I’m not sure how many treadmills they have (the ones that do have it’s own TV), but most if not all the equipment is in.
    I agree the path to the gym is not great, but it’s location below ground level. Hopefully, they will make the walk more pleasant somehow.
    They’ve blocked off the construction of the 2nd tower so most of the common areas is complete though the landscaping will need a couple months to grow out. All in all, the development’s in great shape and improving everyday.
    The 16% inventory includes the 2 treetop buildings. So while the tower has some availability, most of the inventory remains in the treetops.
    Very little has been said of One Rincon’s treetop building. How are sales going there? Last I heard they only sold a few and most are still available. Anyone has numbers?

  153. Posted by anonm

    The funny thing here is that ultimately the two sides agree:
    ORH owner claims that s/he paid $725/sf and that BofA now appraises it at $840/sf, which s/he thinks must be accurate because BofA is a big bank hiring an experienced appraiser.
    Most of the SS posters think that the ORH buyers (who are supposedly paying $1,000+/sf right now) are overpaying by a substantial degree relative to the current market value (i.e., if the whole bldg went back on sale now), let alone the future market value (all trends say down, no trends say up). And, sure enough, according to the BofA appraisal, they are overpaying by about 20%. Even assuming that the current units are on average higher up than Recent ORH’s units is unlikely to close the majority of that gap.

  154. Posted by Alex

    @ Robert re: refinance and 580b.
    I’ve done a little research on this subject myself. There is no hard and fast rule that refinancing a loan will leave a person outside anti-deficiency protection in CA. The RE industry would like people to believe this and a quick Google search will confirm this. However, the case usually cited for that proposition is faulty on several grounds (see Union Bank v. Wendland).
    In addition, the law on what constitutes “purchase money” for the purposes of section 580 is still unsettled. A refinanced loan still may fall within the definition of purchase money for the purposes of section 580 under certain circumstances. A refinanced loan with the same lender for not more than the original purchase price appears to be purchase money. A refinanced loan with a different lender probably is purchase money where the refinance is not more than the original purchase price (no case, but same policy). Finally, a refinanced loan for MORE than the original purchase price probably does NOT fall within the definition of purchase money for the purposes of section 580 (no case either way). However, there is an argument that only the money that is over the original purchase price falls outside of 580 protection.
    A must read for anyone in this situation is a 1996 UCLA law review article entitled, “Will refinancing your home mortgage risk your life savings?” There are a few cases since this article that further define “purchase money,” but this gives a great start.

  155. Posted by Alex

    @ Robert re: refinance and 580b.
    I’ve done a little research on this subject myself. There is no hard and fast rule that refinancing a loan will leave a person outside anti-deficiency protection in CA. The RE industry would like people to believe this and a quick Google search will confirm this. However, the case usually cited for that proposition is faulty on several grounds (see Union Bank v. Wendland).
    In addition, the law on what constitutes “purchase money” for the purposes of section 580 is still unsettled. A refinanced loan still may fall within the definition of purchase money for the purposes of section 580 under certain circumstances. A refinanced loan with the same lender for not more than the original purchase price appears to be purchase money. A refinanced loan with a different lender probably is purchase money where the refinance is not more than the original purchase price (no case, but same policy). Finally, a refinanced loan for MORE than the original purchase price probably does NOT fall within the definition of purchase money for the purposes of section 580 (no case either way). However, there is an argument that only the money that is over the original purchase price falls outside of 580 protection.
    A must read for anyone in this situation is a 1996 UCLA law review article entitled, “Will refinancing your home mortgage risk your life savings?” There are a few cases since this article that further define “purchase money,” but this gives a great start.

  156. Posted by jamie

    You can find the referenced San Francisco Business Times at the Mission Bay branch of the public library.

  157. Posted by anon

    You can find the referenced San Francisco Business Times at the Mission Bay branch of the public library.
    What’s this “library” thing you mention? ;)

  158. Posted by tony

    Hey… what happened to the update on 1RH Tower II promised for today?? Thank you!
    [Editor’s Note: We should have said “early next week” rather than Monday. And we’ll do our best to deliver tomorrow.]

  159. Posted by Rober

    Uh, Recent ORH buyer, there is still two problems with your story:
    1. Unless the bank doing your appraisal had magical and secret access to subsequent sales information from the sales office at One Rincon with respect to units that hadn’t closed yet, there is no way the appraisal would come in significantly higher than purchase price. Where would the appraiser obtain the higher comps necessary to support the higher price? Certainly not from other SOMA buildings, none of which sell at higher prices than they did in 2006. Tell us (if you would), what were the comps used in your appraisal? This would be interesting/useful to all of the readers here.
    2. More to the point – the appraisal you are referring to (by your own story) was obtained in connection with the acquisition you’ve closed upon. You seem to be assuming (perhaps hoping?) that when you now apply for a refinancing, you’ll get the same appraiser and the same valuation. You might, but that is entirely speculative on your part. Your postings are misleading since they state or imply that you’ve obtained a refi appraisal that will permit cash out.

  160. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    Rober,
    Your question number 1 was already answered earlier. I am reposting for your benefit as this is repetitive for most people, who read previous posts –
    “For example, in my appraisal, my unit was compared to a 2/2 on around the 10th-14th floor of the Brannan, which was around 1250 sq. ft. and sold for 1.2m in October 2007. My unit is brand new, has greater square footage and comparable views, while the Brannan is 7 years old, although it is a great building. Using that number to ‘value’ my unit at 1.07m doesn’t seem dramatically out of line, don’t you think?”
    Bank of America does work very closely with ORH and they apparently have preferential access to all sales and unit prices. Clearly this isn’t something I can independently confirm.
    The closing on my recently purchased unit was mid February. I plan to refi within the next two weeks. I suppose that there is a chance that the appraisal will change, although I’m not sure there would be a significant variance in the space of 30 days … so calling it “entirely speculative” and “misleading” sounds like a dramatic overstatement on your part and is borderline offensive. The last thing I’m trying to do is deceive anyone – I’ve been very frank and as honest as I can be throughout.
    Some people appear to be really bitter and wholly unwilling to accept our positive situation. I guess Rober is now spearheading that charge.

  161. Posted by view lover

    Banks are getting aggressive and will offer refi’s to good risks. I just got a call yesterday from my banker offering a refi with much better terms, and at no cost! This is counterintuitive to what we are seeing in the RE market.
    I don’t doubt the recent ORH story. It’s getting crazy out there. But as my banker put it, they are running out of clients and without making loans they go out of business.

  162. Posted by mike

    Recent ORH – Your $840/sf appraisal may well be correct…I don’t have a strong opinion on that one way or the other. However, the fact that it came from BofA’s appraiser is not something that should make us any more confident. One of the keys to the subprime crisis is that the mortgages are not held by the firm that originated them. Instead, they are repackaged and sold to other banks, firms, etc. So when you read that Citi took $X billion in losses, that doesn’t mean that all the losses were in Citi’s own mortgages. It means that Citi bought a lot of mortgage backed securities from other firms, and those securities lost value.
    Now on to your own situation: you are taking out a very small loan (particularly by Bay Area standards), so it looks very, very attractive to the originator (BofA) because, relatively speaking, the fees will be a high percentage of the total loan. BofA probably isn’t planning to hold on to that loan; instead they will repackage it with a bunch of other stuff and sell it to someone else. They won’t get such a high price for it in today’s environment because of all the risk, but since they make so much on the origination fees relative to the size of the loan, it’s basically guaranteed profit for them. Certainly it’s much better for them to make 10 x 150k loans than 1 x 1.5 million loan, because the price they can get on the market is probably pretty similar, but the total origination fees on the 10 small loans will be a lot higher than the origination fees on the one large loan.
    Bottom line: BofA has a strong incentive to make this happen one way or the other. One way of doing that is to inflate the appraisal…that’s not to say that they are, but just that they might want to do it if it were necessary to make it happen. It’s not a question of whether they intend to “replicate the same mistakes over and over” – there’s no mistake here from BofA’s perspective!
    Again, I’m not necessarily saying the appraisal is wrong – that would be a purely ad hominem argument. It may well be right despite the incentives at work. But I will say that your argument “that [BofA’s] appraisers have been instructed to err on the side of conservative valuations” is unlikely to be true.

  163. Posted by Recent ORH buyer

    Mike,
    I work in asset management [so I’m familiar with most of this] and you are right about the way the loans are packaged and resold. ‘Good’ loans were often stuffed with ‘bad’ loans and investors that purchased these CDO pools didn’t really know what they were getting. A lot of CDO buyers are now realizing they are stuck with a bunch of “sub-slime” on their books, particularly Citi.
    I appreciate your insights about B of A’s ‘incentives’. I was operating from the perspective that B.of A. would learn from the error of their ways. However, for certain divisions of B of A, you seem to be saying there was no error, given that their agenda is simply to consumate loans. That’s a fair point. However, while loans are most often packaged and resold, I think B of A may still have [or be forced to keep] some mortgages on their books. At some point, surely they have to clean up this lending mess as they can’t package and resell these loans unless they upgrade their lending standards and ensure investors that they are not being stuck with ‘deadbeat’ loans.
    Accordingly, I’m inclined to believe all banks [not just B of A] must have upgraded their lending standards/appraisal process. If lending reform is not already here, surely it must come soon, else banks will have a hard time staying afloat.

  164. Posted by mike

    Recent ORH – I should also add that I suspect you are a “good” credit risk for BofA (or whoever buys the loan) in the sense that you will probably be able to make the payments, regardless of whether the underlying property value goes down, up, or nowhere.

  165. Posted by jb

    Does anyone have any advice for someone looking to re-locate back to SF (from overseas) & buy 2/2 w/ view in either Infinity or ORH in the next 6 months? Do you think I need to make a move now? Or wait it out a bit longer? I would most likely be paying cash.

  166. Posted by yet another inifinity buyer

    We’re scheduled to close on our unit at the Infinity in June, but haven’t locked in financing. Has anyone talked with the preferred lenders lately? We’re leaning toward a jumbo I/O product (we’ll put 20%++ down), and are thinking we’ll stay 5-10 years. Getting a little worried we’ve missed the boat in terms of getting a decent rate…can anyone confirm?

  167. Posted by yet another inifinity buyer

    We’re scheduled to close on our unit at the Infinity in June, but haven’t locked in financing. Has anyone talked with the preferred lenders lately? We’re leaning toward a jumbo I/O product (we’ll put 20%++ down), and are thinking we’ll stay 5-10 years. Getting a little worried we’ve missed the boat in terms of getting a decent rate…can anyone confirm?

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