September 26, 2007
Which Five Years Will The Next Five Years More Likely Resemble?
213 Moulton is a contemporary single-family home situated down a little alley in Cow Hollow. It first sold for $545,000 in 1995. And ten years later (in 2005) it changed hands for $1,672,000. No doubt about it, that's fantastic long-term appreciation. Then again, it also changed hands in the year 2000 for $1,600,000.
We only mention it now as 215 Moulton (part of the same three home development) has been on the market for a month and has recently reduced its list price $145,000 (or 7.3%). They’re now asking $1,850,000 which includes a new full bath (added in 2006) and reclaimed living space on the ground floor.
∙ Listing: 215 Moulton (3/3.5) - $1,850,000 [MLS]
First Published: September 26, 2007 11:45 AM
Comments from "Plugged In" Readers
As a current renter and a hopeful future buyer, it would be nice to see some monetary declines and not just price stagnation.
Posted by: SFhighrise at September 26, 2007 12:51 PM
1929 - 1934
Posted by: sw at September 26, 2007 1:11 PM
Prices are already coming down - just depends on what you're looking for. I admit I haven't spotted any notable declines in 94123. But the outer areas are getting hit. Bayview, obviously, but also nicer outer areas like Parkside, Merced Heights, etc. Patience.
Posted by: Dude at September 26, 2007 1:18 PM
I posted earlier that I believe we are looking at 91-97 again for the next 5 years.
The big question is have we reach the plateau yet, which I expect we won't have data on until Mar'08 given the 3 month lag on Case-Shiller.
Posted by: Observer at September 26, 2007 1:23 PM
Here are some examples.
Parkside house listed for $695K, last sold in April of '06 for $750K, so down $55K and still on the market.
Here's a short sale in Silver Terrace. Sold in 2005 for $758K, now listed for $650K, over $150K off of peak and still not sold.
There are lots of others out there. As Observer points out, real estate moves in long cycles, and this one just started.
Posted by: Dude at September 26, 2007 1:38 PM
Amen. Everyone wants to see a short blip or a plateau...but we're in for a longer hangover I fear. That's the way its always worked. I'm fully invested in commercial real estate and generally bullish...but we're due for a correction in housing. Moulton is nothing special IMO and could even be called an overimprovement...such a property may be tough to sell in this market.
Posted by: gh at September 26, 2007 1:50 PM
Observer, the 91-97 plateau came after the 89-91 slide. Given that some neighborhoods are still moving up, and the spirited discussion here on socketsite, my conclusion is the SF market is still in transition. In other words, the slide hasn't even begun, so we may be 3 years away from the plateau. And in my opinion, 3 years is optimistic given the worldwide nature of the asset bubble. So quit your cheerleading :)
I can't find the link right now, but there exists a study of the Bay Area price and the cycles averaged out to 18 years. There was a wide variance, from as short as 7 years to well over 20. That said, we are almost exactly 18 years from the last start of the slide.
Note, also, that prices slid down about 5 or 7 percent a year, not exactly a crash. I would not hold my breath waiting for a sign that prices have reached their corrected plateau and now is the time to buy. I tend to agree with the realtors on how this will initially play out. It will just be worse than they will publicly admit. The wildcard this cycle are the number of units being added south of market (Vertical Stockton?)
There is a benefit of a good 3-5 year slide in prices. It will convince everyone that real estate is a horrible investment. The plateau - I prefer the metaphor of "anchor dragging along the bottom" - may be the mother of all buyers markets.
When no one wants to touch real estate is when I dust off my checkbook.
Will no one speak up for Silver Terrace?
Posted by: Emmett_Brown at September 26, 2007 7:46 PM
Emmett Brown, no cheerleading intended I share my perspective on the relator industrial complex with that of Freakonomics.
But I believe that market has turned with prices in South Beach revisting prices last seen in 2005, but the fundamentals of high tech jobs and quality building means the shake out and search for plateau will come down to location, location, location.
For me the voice of reason goes to 'gh' the unansewered question is when and where the fog of hangover will lift?
Posted by: Observer at September 26, 2007 10:18 PM
Hi Observer, I was joking about the cheerleading! Your prognosis is reasonable and reflects an appreciation for historical precedent. I was only pointing out that history was 'worse' than merely 91-97 plateau, esp. when you look at the history from 89 (previous peak) through 97.
And that was just a 'normal' correction. There are some frightening storm clouds on the horizon this cycle.
Posted by: Emmett_Brown at September 28, 2007 2:29 PM
Thanks Emmett, the stromclouds will be interesting to watch as we all search for a plateau, looking forward to watching them with all the folks on Socketsite.
Posted by: Observer at September 28, 2007 5:33 PM
213 Moulton is back on market for a laughable $1.695
Posted by: eddy at March 20, 2009 8:53 AM
I'm a long distance Socket Site cruiser, and I have been looking for SF real estate in Cow Hollow. I had liked 14 Harris Place, except for the funky bedroom arrangement, (and the garish mustard front) and think that Moulton may be the more attractive twin. Eddy- do you think Moulton is worth continued interest and if so at what price? Thanks for any suggestions-
Posted by: Callie at April 3, 2009 11:50 AM
If you are not familiar with this specific area check out www.mapjack.com for a surprising accurate view of the city and surrounding area. The market here is a bit crazy; and very micro. There is a buyer demographic for every neighborhood. I actually like this house, but the area isn't that great, small street, close to a very busy Lombard street. I think it's -10% but I usually shoot 5% more than reality, so maybe -5%. Personally, I wouldn't (and am not)buy in SF until next year, or later.
Posted by: eddy at April 3, 2009 12:25 PM
What an amazing site- I think I spent way too much time virtually walking all over SF! Thanks so much for suggesting it-
I don't like the location of the house at all, especially for the price. Here in the East we experienced the first dramatic shock to the real estate market in Fall of '08, and I had hoped (for selfish reasons) that SF would feel the economic crunch by at least January, but I think it was still in a bubble of denial...
With great reluctance, I agree with you about waiting, and appreciate your advice. It's so disappointing, though, to feel that SF isn't picking up on what's happening to markets east of it, and making realistic adjustments-
Posted by: callie at April 3, 2009 4:43 PM
Now asking under the year 2000 price, with a free bath and extra space.
Posted by: tipster at May 6, 2009 10:37 AM
Correction, 213 Moulton is asking under its 2000 price, got it confused with 215.
Posted by: tipster at May 6, 2009 11:01 AM
213 Moulton is In Escrow. The price was decreased to $1.55m so we may see this apple picked soon enough.
Posted by: eddy at May 27, 2009 3:59 PM