July 31, 2007
San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 7/31/07
Housing inventory in San Francisco has moved from a typical post-Memorial Day bump, to a typical pre-Labor Day slowdown as the number of Active listings in San Francisco dropped 1.6% over the past couple of weeks (and is running 18.3% below 2006 levels). That's roughly two months of supply (which isn't atypical for San Francisco).
At the same time, “listed” housing inventory continues to represent less than half of all units that are currently competing for buyers in San Francisco.
∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (CII): Q3 2007 (SF) [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 7/16/07 [SocketSite]
First Published: July 31, 2007 8:26 AM
Comments from "Plugged In" Readers
This continued low inventory confirms my subjective impression that they're just aren't a lot of "for sale" signs on houses these days. Yes, I know all the caveats: the flood of new condos not listed on the MLS, homeowners opting not to list their properties or yanking them off the market, etc. etc. But seeing as I'm getting ready to sell my condo soon, I'm happy for the relative lack of competition.
Posted by: zzzzzzz at July 31, 2007 9:34 AM
Anybody still wondering why SF prices keep going up? Inventory is running 20% below last year, and that is just frustrating many buyers.
Posted by: oooo at July 31, 2007 3:05 PM
Anybody still wondering why SF prices keep going up?
No, just wondering what makes you think prices are going up? Any evidence to support your statement beyond the naïve “median sales price” argument? I'm out every weekend and I'm not seeing it.
Posted by: SFSal at July 31, 2007 3:30 PM
SF Sal is kind of correct. There is no real evidence that prices in SF are going up. Of course, there is also no real evidence that prices are going down -- other than anecdotal comments such as “I’m not seeing it”. Lots of people like to point to Case-Shiller, but it’s for the entire MSA and for SFH only. What would be really interesting is to see city or zip code specific data, because I think that depressed areas like Contra Costa are skewing things pretty dramatically.
Posted by: Anon at July 31, 2007 5:04 PM
One thing I'm seeing is a lot of places with prices reduced, and a lot of places being de-listed unsold. This could mean prices are dropping, or it could just mean that some people are pricing way too high in the first place. But you sure didn't see many price reductions two years ago, so this would certainly appear to be an indicator of dropping market prices. I don't know of hard data that is available anywhere on pulled listings, so I don't know if you can quantify this evidence of a downturn for those insisting on firm numbers (which is a reasonable position).
Posted by: Trip at July 31, 2007 5:40 PM
While I have not been out every weekend looking, realistically, if I were, I could only cover a very small portion of the city. and not even a zip code.
From my own neighborhood, some are up and some are the same as a year ago, depending on what the property has to offer. But few are down in price., and if they are they are sold very quickly.
Posted by: anon at August 1, 2007 10:21 AM
prices by neighborhood and zip code can be found in a variety of places. Many real estate offices and some neighborhood newspapers track the prices in specific locations, so it is possible to get data more useful than Case-Shiller (which is not useful in my opinion). However, the number of transactions in any given neighborhood is usually so small that it may be hard to know if the price increases many are seeing aren't just a reflection of higher quality homes, i.e. completely remodeled.
I know that if I were looking for same place I bought 18 months ago, it would cost me at least another 8-12% today and I would be in a worse location. However, the similar places all have nicer finishes.
Posted by: anono at August 1, 2007 11:40 AM
"I know that if I were looking for same place I bought 18 months ago, it would cost me at least another 8-12% today and I would be in a worse location."
Nah. That would be at least 30-40% more. Don't you know that everybody wants to live here??????? Keep up the good spirit.
Posted by: anon at August 2, 2007 8:05 AM
Anon @ 8:05am- I assume that is sarcasm, otherwise it's just a useless and bizarre post.
Given that I went several hundred thousand in debt and stuck a six figure down payment into a condo, I pay attention to what similar places are selling for. When I see asking (and contract) prices at 17th & South Van Ness and other less desirable locations for 30% higher on a price per square foot basis (8-12% was the absolute basis) I can only conclude that, at least in the 2BR 2BA 1Pkg segment of the market the entry price points are now clearly higher than they were 1-2 years ago and don't show any signs of letting up.
Posted by: anono at August 2, 2007 9:55 AM