A tipster forwards the link to David Lereah’s Real Estate Reality Check presentation given at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Leadership Summit last week. Very little of the data is San Francisco specific, but as our tipster notes, “definitely an interesting look at the national market.”
A couple of not so positive slide titles that caught our attention: “Condo – Significant Price Depreciation in West and South,” “Mortgage Obligation to Income – Worrisome in the West,” “Prices Do Decline,” and “Correction Necessary.” And according to the “What Will Happen?” slide, “Prices [are] expected to fall for remainder of year,” (although “[p]rice fall will be limited due to pent-up demand at lower prices”) and “[s]ome local markets are fragile and vulnerable to rate rise” (that would be us).
The five-day-old presentation forecasts national existing home price growth of 4.3% in 2006 and 3.8% in 2007 (down from 12.4% in 2005), and existing home sales of 6.6 million in 2006 (which was lowered to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.33 million just this morning).
∙ Real Estate Reality Check: NAR Leadership Summit (8/06) – pdf [realtor.org]
∙ Fresh Data Shows Cooling Housing Market [SFGate]