August 23, 2006
Presentation To The NAR Leadership Summit
A tipster forwards the link to David Lereah’s Real Estate Reality Check presentation given at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Leadership Summit last week. Very little of the data is San Francisco specific, but as our tipster notes, “definitely an interesting look at the national market.”
A couple of not so positive slide titles that caught our attention: “Condo – Significant Price Depreciation in West and South,” “Mortgage Obligation to Income – Worrisome in the West,” “Prices Do Decline,” and “Correction Necessary.” And according to the “What Will Happen?” slide, “Prices [are] expected to fall for remainder of year,” (although “[p]rice fall will be limited due to pent-up demand at lower prices”) and “[s]ome local markets are fragile and vulnerable to rate rise” (that would be us).
The five-day-old presentation forecasts national existing home price growth of 4.3% in 2006 and 3.8% in 2007 (down from 12.4% in 2005), and existing home sales of 6.6 million in 2006 (which was lowered to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.33 million just this morning).
∙ Real Estate Reality Check: NAR Leadership Summit (8/06) - pdf [realtor.org]
∙ Fresh Data Shows Cooling Housing Market [SFGate]
First Published: August 23, 2006 3:50 PM
Comments from "Plugged In" Readers
look at all the bubbles in the back of the slide!
Perhaps David is hinting at something there.
Posted by: Anonymous at August 23, 2006 4:50 PM
Notice how none have popped...
Posted by: Anonymous at August 23, 2006 9:55 PM
This isn't as much spin as it is the ugly reality we face and no one wants to look at the carnage ahead because we'll all suffer for it. Manias are bad and the housing industry broke the rules.
Posted by: Anonymous2 at August 24, 2006 11:31 AM
Posted by: crispy&cole at August 24, 2006 1:00 PM
I hope you're all right about this bubble. I'm looking forward to resales at One Rincon, for a penthouse unit under $500k.
Okay, I'll settle for a penhouse unit at The Met, but $500k is really my max.
Posted by: Anonymous at August 24, 2006 4:56 PM
This might not be so far from reality when half the buyers are going to be foreclosed on for their "creative" financing. Well, you might not get the penthouse suite, but ...
Posted by: Sexy & Sassy in SF at August 24, 2006 7:18 PM
I'll be realistic and wait for a 1br (that's all I ask) on an upper floor at The Met or The Brannan for $500k.
Posted by: Anonymous at August 24, 2006 9:40 PM
Anon, shoot for the Brannan and forget the Met, unless you work at home or walk to work. If you're a commuter (by car), you may want to spend some time standing outside the front of the Met around 5-6 pm on a weekday and watch 1st turn into a parking lot.
Posted by: Anonymous at August 26, 2006 6:56 AM