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CATEGORY ARCHIVE: Trends

May 18, 2012

San Francisco Employment Up By 2,400, Unemployment Under 8%

Preliminary April labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rates at 7.4%, 6.4% and 6.8% respectively, down 0.7 points in San Francisco and San Mateo, down 0.6 points in Marin.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 3,500 in April (from 38,200 to 34,700) while the labor force contracted by 1,200 (from 470,900 to 469,700) and the number of employed increased by 2,400 (from 432,600 to 435,000).

Employment is up by 23,200 workers in San Francisco year-over-year but remains 30,500 workers below a December 2000 dot-com peak (at which point the unemployment rate measured 3 percent).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment fell to 10.5% in April as the labor force contracted by 131,800 workers and the ranks of the unemployed fell by 189,300.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: April 2012 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco Employment Up By 2,000 In March, Up 20,000 YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Employment Trends And Dot-Com Context [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

May 17, 2012

Recorded San Francisco Sales Up 20.6% In April (Year-Over-Year)

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco rose 20.6% on a year-over-year basis last month (509 recorded sales in April 2012 versus 422 sales in April 2011), down 7.6% as compared to the month prior versus an average March to April increase of 1.1% over the past seven years. An average of 576 San Francisco homes have sold in April since 2004 when recorded sales volume hit at 841.

San Francisco's median sales price in April was $700,000, up 6.9% on a year-over-year basis, up 7.7% as compared to March in which the median was flat year-over-year.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in April was up 13.1% on a year-over-year basis, down 0.2% from the month prior (7,675 recorded sales in April '12 versus 6,789 in April ’11 and 7,694 in March '12) on a recorded median sales price which was up 8.3% year-over-year, up 8.9% month-over-month.

Last month distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and “short sales” – made up about 40 percent of the resale market. That was down from about 44 percent the month before and 45 percent a year ago.

Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 21.7 percent of resales in April, the lowest since 18.8 percent in January 2008. It was down from a revised 25.5 percent in March, and down from 27.8 percent a year ago. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 17 years is about 10 percent.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 18.1 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was down from an estimated 18.9 percent the prior month and up from 17.4 percent a year earlier.

At the extremes, San Mateo recorded a 34.1% increase in sales volume (a gain of 199 transactions) on an unchanged median sales price while Solano recorded a 1.9% decrease in sales (a loss of 11 transactions) with a 5.4% drop in median price. The median sales price fell 6.4% in Marin, the biggest Bay Area drop, as sales increased 21.2%.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Increase in Bay Area Home Sales and Median Price [DQNews]
∙ Recorded San Francisco Sales Up 11.3% In March (Year-Over-Year) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (34) | (email story)

San Francisco’s Total Housing Inventory And Pipeline Report

The Planning Commission will get their first peek at the Planning Department’s latest Housing Inventory report this afternoon, you get it this morning.

With 372,831 total housing units in San Francisco, a third of which are single-family homes and only a quarter of which are in buildings with over 20 units, total new housing production in 2011 totaled 418 units, the lowest production since 1993 and versus an average of 1,890 units per year from 2000-2010. In addition, 149 units were lost through demolition, merger or the removal of illegal units in 2011 for a net gain of only 269.

Building permits were pulled for new 1,998 units in 2011, units which should be online within two to three years. And while 57 proposed projects totally 15,060 units were entitled in 2011, that includes 7,800 units on Treasure Island and 5,680 units in Park-Merced, projects which have timelines measured in decades, not years.

Since 2007, a total of 10,438 housing units were constructed in San Francisco, 88 percent of which were in buildings of 20 units or more. Since the year 2000, 24,519 net new units have been built.

∙ San Francisco Housing Inventory: 2011 [sfplanning.org]
∙ Is A Lack Of Density Cooking San Francisco's Golden Tech Goose? [SocketSite]
∙ Treasure Island Redevelopment Plans Approved! (Appeal Rejected) [SocketSite]
∙ The Parkmerced Thirty Year Plan: Public Scoping Meeting Tonight [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

May 10, 2012

Fixed Mortgage Rates Hit All-Time Lows (Again)

According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates averaged 3.83 percent (with 0.7 points) for the week ending today, a new all-time low, down from 3.84 percent last week, down from 3.88 percent last month, and versus 4.63 percent a year ago.

The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate has hit an all-time record low of 3.05 percent, down from 3.07 percent last week, down from 3.11 percent last month, and versus 3.82 percent a year ago.

As rates dropped, mortgage applications to purchase homes in the U.S. increased 3.8 percent last week but are down 0.4 percent year-over-year, and refinancing activity increased 1.3 percent according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

∙ Second Consecutive Week Of Record-Low Fixed Mortgage Rates [Freddie Mac]
∙ 15-Year Mortgage Rates Hit All-Time Low As Purchase Activity Drops [SocketSite]
∙ Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey [mbaa.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

May 8, 2012

Have You Heard The One About The House With Over 50 Offers?

From a plugged-in reader yesterday:

One of my buddies who works at [Facebook] told me today that he bid on a place on 20th Street that went for 65% over asking and had 52 offers. That must mean that there are 51 more people out there looking in the neighborhood. Anyone know which place he was talking about?

That would be 3928 20th Street, the sale of which has been mentioned before.

There are a couple of interesting similarities between the sale of 3928 20th Street which generated over fifty (50) offers and the sale of 4379 Cesar Chavez which generated over twenty (20).

Both properties were listed at roughly $600 per square foot in neighborhoods where the average sale price has been running over $800 per square. Both homes were well suited for expansion. And both properties just so happened to be priced by the same agent.

∙ It Would Have Been 50 Percent Over Had They Priced At A Million... [SocketSite]
∙ Listing: 3928 20th Street (3/1) 1,416 sqft - $849,000 [Redfin]
∙ It's Not This Mid-Century Modern Noe Valley Home That Was Flawed [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (78) | (email story)

San Francisco First Quarter Home Sales Volume: Back To 2008

Recorded first quarter home sales volume in San Francisco is up 7 percent versus 2011, up 50 percent versus 2009, down 32 percent versus 2004 and roughly even with 2008.

Recorded first quarter Bay Area home sales volume is up 11 percent versus 2011, up 15 percent versus 2009 (51 percent versus 2008), down 32 percent versus 2004.

What’s the difference between our counts and a recent Chronicle report? The Chronicle's source doesn't include condos which account for over half the home sales volume in San Francisco.

∙ Recorded San Francisco Sales Up 11.3% In March (Year-Over-Year) [SocketSite]
∙ Bay Area home sales off to best start since 2005 [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

April 27, 2012

San Francisco Employment Trends And Dot-Com Context

As we first reported a week ago, roughly 20,000 workers have joined the workforce in San Francisco over the past year with total employment at 432,600 and an unemployment rate of 8.1 percent. For context with respect to our last boom, employment in San Francisco peaked at 465,500 in December 2000 with an unemployment rate at 3.0 percent.

Including Marin and San Mateo, total employment is currently 919,000 with an unemployment rate of 7.7 percent, up 31,000 jobs year-over-year but versus a peak of 1,000,600 in December 2000 when the unemployment rate totaled 2.6 percent.

∙ San Francisco Employment Up By 2,000 In March, Up 20,000 YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

April 26, 2012

Surprised By A Spike In San Francisco Rents? There's No Excuse.

According to RealFacts, the average asking price for a rental in large apartment buildings in San Francisco increased almost 16 percent from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012.

As we noted a year ago and plugged-in people knew to expect, "institutional estimates are calling for double-digit annual growth in rents in San Francisco over the next few years."

Keep in mind that RealFacts’s figures are based on surveys of professionally managed apartment complexes with 50 or more units, which aren't necessarily the norm in San Francisco, and reflect asking rather than effective rents after incentives.

∙ Tech Job Quote Triptych [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Rents Up 9 Percent As Vacancy Rate Drops To 3.2 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (30) | (email story)

April 24, 2012

S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Home/Condo Prices Dropped In Feb

According to the February 2012 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.7% from January 2012 to February 2012, down 4.1% year-over-year, down 42.9% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 1.0% from January to February, down 3.8% year-over-year, down 35.1% from a June 2006 peak.

"While there might be pieces of good news in this report, such as some improvement in many annual rates of return, February 2012 data confirm that, broadly-speaking, home prices continued to decline in the early months of the year," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices.

Nine MSAs -- Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa – and both Composites hit new post-crisis lows. Atlanta continued its downward spiral, posting its lowest annual rate of decline in the 20-year history of the index at -17.3%. The 10-City Composite declined 3.6% and the 20-City was down 3.5% compared to February 2011.

On a month-over-month basis, prices fell across all three San Francisco price tiers.

The bottom third (under $297,895 at the time of acquisition) fell a nominal 0.1% from January to February (down 3.2% YOY); the middle third fell a nominal 0.2% from January to February (down 3.7% YOY); and the top third (over $537,349 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.2% from January to February, down 1.7% year-over-year (versus 2.6% in January).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have dropped below May 2000 levels having fallen 60% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has dropped to February 2002 levels having fallen 43% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has dropped to July 2003 levels having fallen 29% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.5% from January '11 to February '12, down 6.4% year-over-year, down 38.8% from a December 2005 peak.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Nine Cities and Both Composites Hit New Lows in February 2012 [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Homes Slip, Condos Dip In January [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (54) | (email story)

April 23, 2012

Pre-Foreclosure Activity Ticks Back Up In San Francisco

Having slowed down in the first quarter of 2012, pre-foreclosure activity has picked back up in San Francisco over the past month with 480 properties in the pipeline, 36 percent of which are in District 10*, up from 420 properties in the pipeline last month. On a year-over-year basis, pre-foreclosure activity is down 27 percent with 660 properties in the pipeline at the same time last year, 28 percent of which were in District 10.

The number of properties scheduled for auction in San Francisco fell by one over the past month and currently tallies 591 (42 percent of which are in District 10 versus 34 percent last month), down from 692 in April 2011 (at which point 41 percent were in District 10).

Last year roughly 70 percent of scheduled foreclosure auctions in San Francisco were cancelled (only one point above the 69 percent cancellation rate for scheduled auctions in District 10), up from a 66 percent cancellation rate in 2010, 55 percent in 2009, 53 percent in 2008, and 49 percent in 2007.

*Editor's Note: In an attempt to match and map two disparate data sets, we include 94124, 94134 and 94112 in "District 10," which results in a slightly larger area than the District as defined by the San Francisco Association of Realtors.

∙ As Pre-Foreclosure Activity Drops, Scheduled Auctions Tick Up In SF [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Association Of Realtors New Neighborhood Map [SocketSite

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

April 20, 2012

San Francisco Employment Up By 2,000 In March, Up 20,000 YOY

Preliminary March labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rates at 8.1%, 7.0% and 7.5% respectively, unchanged in San Francisco, up 0.4 points in Marin and 0.2 in San Mateo.

On a revised basis, while the number of unemployed in San Francisco ticked up by 500 in March (from 37,700 to 38,200), the labor force increased by 2,600 (from 468,300 to 470,900) and the number of employed increased by 2,000 (from 430,600 to 432,600). Employment is up by 20,000 workers in San Francisco, year-over-year (YOY).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment increased to 11.5% as the labor force increased by 49,400 workers and the ranks of the unemployed increased by 19,300.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: March 2012 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Employment Up By 2,100 In February [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

April 19, 2012

Recorded San Francisco Sales Up 11.3% In March (Year-Over-Year)

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco rose 11.3% on a year-over-year basis last month (551 recorded sales in March 2012 versus 495 sales in March 2011), up 48.5% as compared to the month prior versus an average February to March increase of 41.8% over the past seven years. An average of 573 San Francisco homes have sold in March since 2004 when recorded sales volume hit at 749.

San Francisco's median sales price in March was $650,000, unchanged on a year-over-year basis, up 4.2% as compared to February in which the median sale price was up 5.9% year-over-year.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in March was up 9.1% on a year-over-year basis, up 34.9% from the month prior (7,694 recorded sales in March '12 versus 7,051 in March ’11 and 5,702 in February '12) while the recorded median sales price was down 0.6% year-over-year, up 10.2% month-over-month.

The Bay Area saw a total of 1,734 condo resales last month, the most for any month since August 2006, when 1,783 were sold. The median price paid for resale condos was $276,000, up 10.4 percent from $250,000 a year ago. The resale condo median had declined on a year-over-year basis in 16 of the prior 17 months.

Last month distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and "short sales" – made up 44.3 percent of the resale market. That was down from 48.8 percent in February and 48.2 percent in March a year ago.

At the extremes, Solano recorded a 13.2% increase in sales volume (a gain of 80 transactions) on a 0.5% decline in median sales price, while Napa recorded a 0.8% decrease in sales (a loss of 1 transaction) on a 6.5% grain in median price. The median sales price in Marin fell 15.5%, the biggest Bay Area drop, as sales increased 8.0%.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area Home Sales Continue to Rise, Condo Sales Jump [DQNews]
∙ Recorded San Francisco Sales Up 9.1% In February, Year-Over-Year [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (23) | (email story)

April 17, 2012

Housing Starts Slip From February But Remain Up Year-Over-Year

Housing starts in the U.S. slipped 5.8 percent from February to March driven by a slowdown in the multi-family housing sector as starts for structures with five (5) or more units fell 19.8 percent from February, but total starts remain up 10.3 percent year-over-year.

Permit activity to start construction was up 30.1 percent in March year-over-year with applications for multi-family housing up 57.8 percent versus 30.1 percent for single-family homes.

In the west, starts were up 13.2 percent year-over-year (versus 41.1 percent in February), up 9.6 percent for single-family homes (versus 11.1 percent in February) while permit activity was up 44.4 percent, up 28.9 percent for single-family homes.

∙ New Residential Construction: March 2012 [doc.gov]
∙ U.S. Housing Starts Slip From January But Well Up Year-Over-Year [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

April 12, 2012

15-Year Mortgage Rates Hit All-Time Low As Purchase Activity Drops

According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates averaged 3.88 percent (with 0.7 points) for the week ending today, down from 3.98 percent last week, within one basis point of an all-time low, and versus 4.91 percent a year ago.

The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate has hit an all-time record low of 3.11 percent, down from 3.21 percent last week, two basis points below its previous record low recorded last month, and versus 4.13 percent a year ago.

At the same time, mortgage applications to purchase homes in the U.S. dropped 2.4 percent last week (refinancing activity fell 3.1 percent), but remain up 5.5 percent on a year-over-year basis according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

∙ 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Hits New All-Time Record Low [Freddie Mac]
∙ Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey [mbaa.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

March 27, 2012

S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Home/Condo Prices Drop In January

According to the January 2012 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 2.5% from December 2011 to January 2012, down 5.9% year-over-year, down 42.5% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.8% from December to January, down 3.9% year-over-year, down 34.4% from a June 2006 peak.

"Despite some positive economic signs, home prices continued to drop. The 10- and 20- City Composites and eight cities – Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa – made new lows," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices.

"Detroit and Phoenix, two cities that have suffered massive price declines, plus Denver, saw increasing prices versus January 2011. The 10-City Composite was down 3.9% and the 20-City was down 3.8% compared to January 2011."

"Atlanta continues to stand out in terms of recent relative weakness. It was down 2.1% over the month, and has fallen by a cumulative 19.7% over the last six months. It also posted the worst annual return, down 14.8%. Seven of the cities were down by 1.0% or more over the month."

On a month-over-month basis, prices fell across all three San Francisco price tiers and the 2.5% aggregate decline was the largest of all Metropolitan Areas in the U.S.

The bottom third (under $302,275 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.7% from December to January (down 4.5% YOY); the middle third fell 1.0% from December to January (down 5.9% YOY); and the top third (over $549,932 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.5% from December to January, down 2.6% year-over-year (versus a 1.4% in December).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have dropped below May 2000 levels having fallen 60% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has dropped to February 2002 levels having fallen 43% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has dropped to November 2003 levels having fallen 28% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.5% from December '11 to January '12, down 6.9% year-over-year, down 37.9% from a December 2005 peak.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Case-Shiller: 2012 Home Prices Off to a Rocky Start [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Homes Slip, Condos Dip In January [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (36) | (email story)

March 26, 2012

San Francisco Misses Inman’s Global Homebuyers Hot Spot Cut

According to the National Association of Realtors, Canadians accounted for 23 percent of foreign buyers of U.S. real estate with Chinese accounting for the second highest share at 9 percent. And while Miami, Manhattan, Honolulu, and Las Vegas cracked the top ten most popular areas in which the foreign buyers are buying according to an Inman News report, San Francisco did not which shouldn’t come as a surprise to those who are plugged-in.

∙ 10 Hot Spots for Global Homebuyers [Inman]
∙ Recap: What’s The Scoop On Foreign Investment In San Francisco? [SocketSite]
∙ What’s The Scoop On Foreign Investment In San Francisco? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

March 23, 2012

San Francisco County Employment Up By 2,100 In February

Preliminary February labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rates at 8.1%, 6.6% and 7.3% respectively, unchanged in San Francisco and Marin, up 0.1 point in San Mateo.

On a revised basis, while the number of unemployed in San Francisco ticked up by 100 in February (from 37,600 to 37,700), the labor force increased by 2,200 (from 466,100 to 468,300) and the number of employed increased by 2,100 (from 428,500 to 430,600).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment increased to 11.4% as the labor force increased by 85,400 workers and the ranks of the unemployed increased by 19,800.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: February 2012 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco Employment, And Unemployment, Up In January [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

U.S. New Home Sales: Up 11.4% In February Year-Over-Year

The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. fell to 313,000 in February, down 1.6 percent from a revised rate of 318,000 in January but 11.4 percent above the 281,000 pace recorded in February 2011.

Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in January were estimated to be 25,000 (give or take 9 percent), up 3,000 from January, the second slowest February on record since 1963. January sales peaked in 2005 with 109,000 new homes sold.

In the West, the pace of new home sales was up 32.8 percent year-over-year to 81,000 in January, up 8.0 percent versus the month before.

∙ New Residential Sales: January 2012 [census.gov]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales: Up 3.5% In January Year-Over-Year [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

March 21, 2012

Existing U.S. Sales Pace Slips As Supply And Median Price Tick Up

The pace of seasonally adjusted existing-home sales in the U.S. slipped 0.9 percent from an upwardly revised 4.63 million in January to a 4.59 million pace in February, up 8.8 percent from the 4.22 million unit pace recorded in February 2011.

Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 4.3 percent to 2.43 million existing homes actively on the market, a 6.4 month supply, up from a revised 6.0 month supply in January but versus an 8.6 month supply in February 2011.

The median sale price for existing-homes ticked up 0.3 percent in February to $156,600 as distressed sales accounted for 34 percent of sales volume, down one point from last month, down five points year-over-year.

Existing-home sales in the west declined 3.2 percent from January to February, up 6.1 percent year-over-year with a median sales price that’s up 3.1 percent year-over-year.

∙ Existing U.S. Sales Pace Up As Supply Drops And Median Does As Well [SocketSite]
∙ February Existing-Home Sales Slip But Up Year-Over-Year [realtor.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

March 20, 2012

As Pre-Foreclosure Activity Drops, Scheduled Auctions Tick Up In SF

Pre-foreclosure activity in San Francisco has dropped from 611 properties in the pipeline in January to 420 today, 30 percent of which are in District 10*. On a year-over-year basis, pre-foreclosure activity is down 36 percent with 656 properties in the pipeline at the same time last year, 30 percent of which were in District 10.

That being said, the number of properties currently scheduled for auction in San Francisco has ticked up from 549 to 592 over the past two months (34 percent of which are in District 10 versus 40 percent in January), but down from 668 in March 2011 (at which point 43 percent were in District 10).

Last year roughly 70 percent of scheduled foreclosure auctions in San Francisco were cancelled (only one point above the 69 percent cancellation rate for scheduled auctions in District 10), up from a 66 percent cancellation rate in 2010, 55 percent in 2009, 53 percent in 2008, and 49 percent in 2007.

*Editor's Note: In an attempt to match and map two disparate data sets, we include 94124, 94134 and 94112 in "District 10," which results in a slightly larger area than the District as defined by the San Francisco Association of Realtors.

∙ San Francisco Foreclosure Trends And 2011 And Retrospective [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Foreclosure Activity Climbs Outside Of District 10 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Association Of Realtors New Neighborhood Map [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

U.S. Housing Starts Slip From January But Well Up Year-Over-Year

Housing starts in the U.S. slipped 1.1 percent from January to February but were up 34.7 percent year over year driven by demand for rentals and multi-family housing with construction of structures with five (5) or more units up 108.0 percent year-over-year versus 17.8 percent for single-family home.

Permit activity to start construction was up 34.3 percent year-over-year in February with applications for multi-family housing up 73.3 percent versus 23.6 percent for single-family homes.

In the west, starts were up 41.1 percent year-over-year, up 11.1 percent for single-family homes while permit activity was up 45.4 percent, up 22.7 percent for single-family homes.

∙ New Residential Construction: February 2012 [doc.gov]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

March 15, 2012

Recorded San Francisco Sales Up 9.1% In February, Year-Over-Year

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco rose 9.1% on a year-over-year basis last month (371 recorded sales in February 2012 versus 340 sales in February 2011), up 13.5% as compared to the month prior, right in line with an average January to February increase of 13.6% over the past seven years. An average of 405 San Francisco homes have sold in February since 2004 when recorded sales volume hit at 537.

San Francisco's median sales price in February was $624,000, up 5.9% on a year-over-year basis and up 3.6% as compared to January in which the median sale price was up 1.3% year-over-year.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in February was up 14.2% on a year-over-year basis, up 4.1% from the month prior (5,702 recorded sales in February '12 versus 4,991 in February ’11 and 5,479 in January '12) while the recorded median sales price was down 3.6% year-over-year, down a nominal 0.3% month-over-month.

In the words of DataQuick President, John Walsh:

The market is still strange, just a little less strange than it was. We also need to keep in mind that, when it comes to statistical trends, February is the least typical month of the year. Over the winter you’re left with a higher concentration of investors and people who must buy or sell because of a major life event. In the spring, when many traditional buyers return, we’ll get a much better read on the market.

At the extremes, Alameda recorded a 33.3% increase in sales volume (a gain of 298 transactions) on a 5.4% decline in median sales price, while Sonoma recorded a 4.5% decrease in sales (a loss of 18 transactions) on a 0.2% drop in median price. The median sales price in Marin increased 7.6%, the biggest Bay Area gain, as sales increased 15.3%.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area February Home Sales at Five-year High [DQNews]
∙ Recorded San Francisco Sales Fall 1.8% In January, Median Ticks Up [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (23) | (email story)

March 13, 2012

The Latest Fad Sweeping Through SoMa

Citing an office vacancy rate of 8.65 percent in SoMa at the end of 2011 versus rates of 23.6 percent in 2008 and 25.5 percent in 2009, and an overall office vacancy rate of 9.3 percent for San Francisco, the owners of 808 Brannan are seeking Planning’s approval to legally convert the 45,723 square foot building from showroom (PDR) to office use.

Formerly the headquarters for Georgiou Studio, a local clothes designer, Mr. Georgiou lost the building to foreclosure in 2010 and it’s been vacant since. The Planning Department recommends approval of the conversion.

∙ 808 Brannan Street: Request for Office Authorization [sfplanning.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

March 9, 2012

San Francisco Employment, And Unemployment, Up In January

Preliminary January labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rates at 8.1%, 6.6% and 7.2% respectively, up 0.5 percentage points in San Francisco, up 0.1 points in Marin, and unchanged in San Mateo.

That being said, while the number of unemployed in San Francisco increased by 2,400 in January (from 35,200 to 37,600), the labor force increased by 2,800 (from 463,300 to 466,100) and the number of employed increased by 500 (from 428,000 to 428,500).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment increased to 11.3% as the labor force increased by 193,700 workers and the ranks of the unemployed increased by 95,201.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: January 2012 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Employment Up By 200 In December [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

A Playground For Old, Rich White People Rather Than Kids?

From the Chronicle last year: "The city actually has 3,000 more children under 5 than it did 10 years ago, but has lost more than 8,000 kids older than 5."

From the Chronicle today: "There are actually about 3,000 more children younger than 5 in the city than there were in 2000, but about 8,000 fewer school-age youths."

Adrienne Pon, executive director of the Office of Civic Engagement and Immigrant Affairs, said the city's increasingly high cost of living is driving out families with children, poor people and African Americans. It is leaving San Francisco an older city than in the past, with a median age of 38.2 years old.

Pon said other city characteristics causing families to leave are its high density, perceptions it is unsafe, beliefs the public schools are mediocre, high cost of private schools, and lack of open space. Several officials pointed to the high cost and overall lack of child care.

Whether public schools are also driving families out of the city was a big question at the hearing. Public school officials testified that they are seeing an increase in kindergarten applicants and forecast a rise in secondary school students within the next several years.

[Supervisor Mark Farrell] said his friends using the public schools are happy with them and that City Hall should take an active role in trying to change perceptions about the school district.

The question remains will the mini-boom in kindergarten age kids roll over to secondary school matriculation, or as the trends suggest, is that simply the age at which families will continue to flee.

∙ Flight Of The San Francisco Families (Or At Least Kids) [SocketSite]
∙ Families' exodus leaves S.F. with lowest pct. of children in U.S. [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (45) | (email story)

February 29, 2012

Up, Down, And Back Again In South Beach

Back in January 2008 when covering the bank-owned (REO) auction of 41 Federal #42, we noted what we perceived as a change in the market, a perception not everyone shared:

…this whole thread is about REO as indicator. Is it not? Socketsite said it "just might speak" to that. Baloney. It is an REO. REO as trend? LOL.

Having been purchased from the developer for $880,000 in December 2006, 41 Federal #42 had become bank-owned in September 2007 and sold for $700,000 the following May.

Purchased for $1,150,000 in October 2006, two months before the first sale of #42, 41 Federal #21 has just returned to the market as pictured above and listed for $1,149,000.

∙ Listing: 41 Federal #21 (2/2) 1,365 sqft - $1,149,000 [Redfin]
∙ Going Once, Going Twice…Going Five Times At Shore|Line: 41 Federal [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Bucks CA Foreclosure Trends, But Not In A Good Way [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

Like 8,000 New Tech Jobs Expected This Year In San Francisco

According to a poll by the newly formed San Francisco Citizens Initiative for Technology & Innovation (sf.citi), their 125 member companies are expecting to hire "like 8,000 new jobs this year and counting," according to Ron Conway, sf.citi’s founding Chairman.

∙ Tech companies hiring 8,000-plus in San Francisco [Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (53) | (email story)

February 28, 2012

Ooh And Ahh (And Ouch)

As we first reported with respect to 1422 Douglass this past September:

Purchased for $925,000 in 2007, the single-family Noe Valley home at 1422 Douglass returned to the market two weeks ago listed for $875,000 while noting: "Be prepared to ooh and aah (sic) over this charming Victorian home that packs a big impression."

On Friday, the list price for 1422 Douglass was reduced to $849,000. We’re not sure if that’s an "ooh" or an "ahh," but we do know that's 8 percent ($76,000) below its 2007 sale price on an apples-to-apples basis.

The sale of 1422 Douglass closed escrow on Friday with a reported contract price of $775,000, 16.2 percent ($150,000) below its 2007 sale on an apples-to-apples basis.

Once again, based on PropertyShark’s stats, the median price per square foot for neighborhood single-family homes dropped 19 percent from 2008 to 2011, down 8 percent from 2010 to 2011. The drop from 2007 through 2011 was 16.4 percent.

∙ Ooh, Ahh...And Now Reduced For The Noe Apple At 1422 Douglass [SocketSite]
∙ A Quintessential Noe Valley Apple Falls Into Our Cart [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Homes Slip, Condos Dip In December

According to the December 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.8% from November ’11 to December '11, down 5.4% year-over-year, down 41.1% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 1.3% from November to December, down 3.9% year-over-year, down 33.8% from a June 2006 peak.

With this month’s report we saw all three composite hit new record lows. While we thought we saw some signs of stabilization in the middle of 2011, it appears that neither the economy nor consumer confidence was strong enough to move the market in a positive direction as the year ended.

After a prior three years of accelerated decline, the past two years has been a story of a housing market that is bottoming out but has not yet stabilized. Up until today’s report we had believed the crisis lows for the composites were behind us, with the 10-City Composite originally hitting a low in April 2009 and the 20-City Composite in March 2011. Now it looks like neither was the case, as both hit new record lows in December 2011. The National Composite fell by 3.8% in the fourth quarter alone, and is down 33.8% from its 2nd quarter 2006 peak. It also recorded a new record low.

In general, most of the regions also posted weak data in December. Eighteen of the cities saw average home prices fall in December over November. Seventeen of the cities have seen monthly declines for at least three consecutive months. In addition to both monthly composites, 10 of the cities saw home prices fall by more than 1.0% during the month of December. The pick-up in the economy has simply not been strong enough to keep home prices stabilized. If anything it looks like we might have reentered a period of decline as we begin 2012.

On a month-over-month basis, prices were up for the bottom third of San Francisco price tiers, up nominally for the middle, down nominally at the top.

The bottom third (under $311,666 at the time of acquisition) rose 0.9% from November to December (down 4.6% YOY); the middle third rose 0.3% from November to December (down 7.1% YOY); and the top third (over $573,705 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.4% from November to December, down 1.4% year-over-year (versus a 1.9% in November).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have dropped to May 2000 levels having fallen 60% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has dropped below March 2002 levels having fallen 42% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has dropped to January 2004 levels having fallen 26% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.9% from November '11 to December '11, down 7.3% year-over-year, down 37.0% from a December 2005 peak.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Case-Shiller: All Three Home Price Composites End 2011 at New Lows [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Homes Dip, Condos Slip In November [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (30) | (email story)

February 24, 2012

U.S. New Home Sales: Up 3.5% In January Year-Over-Year

The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. fell to 321,000 in January, down 0.9 percent from a revised rate of 324,000 in December but 3.5 percent above the 310,000 pace recorded in January 2011.

Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in January were estimated to be 22,000 (give or take 9 percent), down 1,000 from December, the second slowest January on record since 1963. January sales peaked in 2005 with 92,000 new homes sold.

In the West, the pace of new home sales was up 5.6 percent year-over-year to 76,000 in January, down 10.6 percent versus the month before.

∙ New Residential Sales: January 2012 [census.gov]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales: Up 9.8% Year-Over-Year In November [SocketSite]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales: Down 7.3% In December Year-Over-Year [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

February 23, 2012

Look Past The Overhyped Facebook Effect

Forget the overhyped Facebook effect (a.k.a. "buy now or be priced out forever 2.0") and simply turn your attention to the S&P 500 which closed the day at 1,363.05, just below its April 2011 high of 1,363.61 (its highest close since June 2008) and the Dow’s 12,986.81, its highest close since May 2008.

UPDATE (2/24): The S&P 500 closed the day at 1,365.74, its highest close since June 2008.

∙ What's The Point? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (70) | (email story)

It's Not This Mid-Century Modern Noe Valley Home That Was Flawed

As plugged-in people know, the 1,810 square foot Albert Lanier designed Mid-Century Modern home at 4378 Cesar Chavez hit the market this past November priced at $1,100,000 or $608 per square foot for the designer Noe Valley home with views.

At the time of its listing, the average single-family Noe home was selling for well over $800 per square foot. Lo and behold, 4378 Cesar Chavez, the unidentified poster child of a recent Chronicle report, quickly sold for $1,540,000 ($851 per square) with 23 offers.

It’s funny how that happens.

According to the Chronicle’s Carolyn Said, the architecturally significant Mid-Century Modern home "looked like a 1980s Tahoe cabin," one of the "flaws" that led Realtor Bernard Katzmann to price the property so far below market.

∙ Channeling Mid-Century Modern Flair At 4378 Cesar Chavez [SocketSite]
∙ It Would Have Been 50 Percent Over Had They Priced At A Million... [SocketSite]
∙ The SocketSite Reality Check For CBS’s Infamous "42 Offer" Home [SocketSite]
∙ Yes, yes, Noe Valley, say eager S.F. home buyers [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (183) | (email story)

February 22, 2012

San Francisco Prestige Index Down 0.3% In Q4 2011, Down 3.1% YOY

The First Republic Prestige Home Index for "San Francisco" homes valued at more than $1 million, and averaging $2.52 million, fell 0.3 percent from the third to fourth quarter of 2011, down 3.1 percent year-over-year versus a 1.4 percent YOY decline in the third quarter, down 18.2 percent from a third quarter 2007 peak and back below the third quarter of 2004.

As always, keep in mind that the "San Francisco" index includes "a cross-section of luxury homes in Alamo, Atherton, Belvedere, Danville, Healdsburg, Hillsborough, Lafayette, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Mill Valley, Moraga, Orinda, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Portola Valley, Ross, St. Helena, San Francisco, Saratoga, Sonoma, Tiburon and Woodside."

∙ First Republic Prestige Home Index: San Francisco [firstrepublic.com]
∙ San Francisco Prestige Index Up 1.0% In Third Quarter, Back To 2004 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

Existing U.S. Sales Pace Up As Supply Drops And Median Does As Well

The pace of seasonally adjusted existing-home sales in the U.S. rose 4.3 percent from a downwardly revised 4.38 million in December to a 4.57 million pace in January, up 0.7 percent from the 4.54 million unit pace recorded in January 2011.

Total housing inventory at the end of January ticked down 0.4 percent to 2.31 million existing homes actively on the market, a 6.1 month supply, down from a 6.4 month supply in December and versus a 7.6 month supply in January 2011.

While demand appears to have increased, and supply appears to have declined, the median sale price for existing-homes continued to decline, down 2.0 percent year-over-year in January to $154,700 as distressed sales accounted for 35 percent of sales volume, up three points from last month but down two points year-over-year.

Existing-home sales in the west increased 8.8 percent from December to January, down 3.1 percent year-over-year with a median sales price that’s down 1.8 percent as well.

∙ Existing Sales Pace Up And Supply Drops As Median Drops As Well [SocketSite]
∙ Existing-Home Sales Rise Again in January, Inventory Down [realtor.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

February 17, 2012

Recorded San Francisco Sales Fall 1.8% In January, Median Ticks Up

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 1.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (327 recorded sales in January 2012 versus 333 sales in January 2010), down 34.5% as compared to the month prior, right in line with an average December to January drop of 34.3% over the past seven years. An average of 366 San Francisco homes have sold in January since 2004 when recorded sales volume hit at 558.

San Francisco's median sales price in December was $602,500, up 2.1% on a year-over-year basis and 1.3% as compared to December in which the median sale price was down 7.8% year-over-year.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in January was up 10.3% on a year-over-year basis, down 26.9% from the month prior (5,479 recorded sales in January '12 versus 4,966 in January ’11 and 7,494 in December '11) while the recorded median sales price was down 3.6% year-over-year, down 7.3% month-over-month.

Last month distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and “short sales” – rose to 51.9 percent of the Bay Area resale market. That’s up from 48.5 percent in December and down slightly from 54.5 percent in January 2011.

Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 28.0 percent of resales in January. That was up from a revised 27.8 percent in December, and down from 35.0 percent a year earlier. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 9 percent.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 23.9 percent of Bay Area resales last month – the highest for the current housing cycle. That was up from 20.7 percent in December and up from 19.5 percent a year earlier.

At the extremes, Sonoma recorded a 29.8% increase in sales volume (a gain of 97 transactions) on a 4.2% decline in median sales price, while Napa recorded a 21.2% decrease in sales (a loss of 25 transactions) on a 5.6% increase in median price. The median sales price in San Mateo dropped 7.8% as sales increased 17.7%. Only San Francisco and Napa counties recorded year-over-year declines in sales volume.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area Housing Market Logs Higher Sales, Lower Prices [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Sales Activity Ticks Up In December, Median Ticks Down [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (37) | (email story)

February 15, 2012

San Francisco Home Sales Slip In January And Not Simply Seasonally

According to the detail behind Redfin's summary data, the sales volume of single-family homes in San Francisco dropped 26.7 percent on a year-over-year basis last month (from 187 in January 2011 to 137 in January 2012) while condo and townhome sales volume fell 10.1 percent (from 178 in January 2011 to 160 in January 2012).

The median sale price for single-family homes in San Francisco ticked up 3.3 percent year-over-year in January, but the price per square foot fell 6.4 percent. With respect to condos, the median sale price fell 1.6 percent in San Francisco while the price per square foot ticked up 3.0 percent versus January 2011 (down 4.8 percent versus December).

∙ Sellers Still in Control in San Francisco [Redfin]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (45) | (email story)

February 7, 2012

Selling Short And Still Walking Away With Cash At Settlement

From Bloomberg with respect to a move by major lenders to incentivize delinquent homeowners to short-sell their properties rather than occupy mortgage free for years by offering the debtors up to $35,000 in cash to move on:

Lenders have routinely delayed or blocked such transactions, known as short sales, in which they accept less from a buyer than the seller’s outstanding loan. Now banks have decided the deals are faster and less costly than foreclosures, which have slowed in response to regulatory probes of abusive practices. Banks are nudging potential sellers by pre-approving deals, streamlining the closing process, forgoing their right to pursue unpaid debt and in some cases providing large cash incentives, said Bill Fricke, senior credit officer for Moody’s Investors Service in New York.

Losses for lenders are about 15 percent lower on the sales than on foreclosures, which can take years to complete while taxes and legal, maintenance and other costs accumulate, according to Moody’s. The deals accounted for 33 percent of financially distressed transactions in November, up from 24 percent a year earlier, said CoreLogic Inc., a Santa Ana, California-based real estate information company.

In San Francisco where $35,000 can represent less than six months of mortgage free living, fifty-five percent of distressed listings (which account for eighteen percent of all listings) are currently short sales, versus seventy-one percent at the same time last year.

∙ Banks Pay Homeowners to Avoid Foreclosures [Bloomberg]
∙ Five Years Of "Free" Foreclosure Living At 333 First Nears An End [SocketSite]
∙ Going On Four Years Of "Free" Foreclosure Living Over In Noe Valley [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

February 1, 2012

San Francisco’s Growing "Condominium Foreclosure Backlog"

UPDATE: At the request of Polaris, we have removed their proprietary Condominium Foreclosure Backlog chart and counts. Our apologies to all involved.

∙ San Francisco Foreclosure Trends And 2011 And Retrospective [SocketSite]
∙ Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Flat QOQ, Up 3.8% YOY In Q4 2011 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

January 31, 2012

S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Homes Dip, Condos Slip In November

According to the November 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.9% from October ’11 to November '11, down 5.5% year-over-year (versus a 4.7% YoY drop in October), down 40.6% from a peak in May '06.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 1.3% from October to November, down 3.6% year-over-year and down 32.9% from a June 2006 peak.

Despite continued low interest rates and better real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, home prices continue to fall. Weakness was seen as 19 of 20 cities saw average home prices decline in November over October...The only positive for the month was Phoenix, one of the hardest hit in recent years. Annual rates were little better as 18 cities and both Composites were negative.

Nationally, home prices are lower than a year ago. The 10-City Composite was down 3.6% and the 20-City was down 3.7% compared to November 2010. The trend is down and there are few, if any, signs in the numbers that a turning point is close at hand.

On a month-over-month basis, prices were up nominally for the bottom third of the three San Francisco price tiers but fell for both the middle and top.

The bottom third (under $314,749 at the time of acquisition) rose 0.2% from October to November (down 7.5% YOY); the middle third fell 1.6% from October to November (down 8.6% YOY); and the top third (over $586,246 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.0% from October to November, down 1.9% year-over-year (versus up 0.3% in October).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have dropped below May 2000 levels having fallen 60% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has dropped below March 2002 levels having fallen 42% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has dropped below February 2004 levels having fallen 26% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.2% from October '11 to November '11, down 7.5% year-over-year, down 35.8% from a December 2005 peak.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Prices Continued to Decline in November 2011 [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Homes Slip, Condos Dip In October [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (71) | (email story)

January 27, 2012

Quintessential Noe Valley (And Price Per Square Foot Trend)

Having undergone a major remodel in 1999 following its purchase for $410,000 in 1998, the "quintessential renovated and expanded Noe Valley home" at 4245 23rd Street sold for $1,700,000 in September of 2004.

The 2,302 square foot four-bedroom, which is much larger and scarcer than the median neighborhood home, is now back on the market and listed for $1,795,000.

Although their records appear to be incomplete for 2011, if PropertyShark is to correct, the median sale price per square foot for 94114 single-family homes was $697 in 2004, peaked at $953 in 2008, dropped to $840 in 2010, and was $773 last year on median sized home sales of 1,360, 1,530, 1,512, and 1,650 square feet respectively.

Based on PropertyShark’s stats, the median neighborhood price per square foot is up 11 percent since 2004 having increased 37 percent from 2004 to 2008, dropping 19 percent from 2008 to 2011, and having dropped 8 percent from 2010.

Keep in mind that with a 21 percent increase in the size of the median home sold from 2004 to 2011, even if the price per square foot had dropped 20 percent the median price paid would have shown "appreciation," one of the reasons simply quoting changes in median or average sale price often misleads.

And yes, size matters when it comes to comparing price per square foot for homes.

∙ Listing: 4245 23rd Street (4/3) 2,302 sqft - $1,795,000 [4245-23rdst.com]
∙ Size Matters (At Least With Respect To Dollars Per Square Foot) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (21) | (email story)

January 26, 2012

U.S. New Home Sales: Down 7.3% In December Year-Over-Year

The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. fell to 307,000 in December, down 2.2 percent from a revised rate of 314,000 in November and 7.3 percent below the 331,000 pace recorded in December 2010.

Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in December were estimated to be 21,000 (give or take 9 percent), down 1,000 from November and the slowest December on record since 1963. December sales peaked in 2005 with 87,000 new homes sold.

In the West, the pace of new home sales was down 29.1 percent year-over-year to 73,000 in December, up 9.0 percent versus the month before.

∙ New Residential Sales: December 2011 [census.gov]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales: Up 9.8% Year-Over-Year In November [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

January 25, 2012

Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Flat QOQ, Up 3.8% YOY In Q4 2011

Bay Area Notices of Default (NODs) in the fourth quarter of 2011 fell 16.6% on a year-over-year basis, down 6% in San Francisco proper (from 435 to 409).

Actual Bay Area foreclosures in the fourth quarter fell 16.2% on a year-over-year basis (from 5,764 to 4,831) with Contra Costa (down 13.1% to 1,354), Alameda (down 23.8% to 1,038) and Santa Clara (down 20.3% to 718) leading the way with respect to volume.

Fourth quarter recorded foreclosures in San Francisco totaled 162, up 3.8% on a year-over-year basis, flat from the third quarter of 2011 versus a 21% drop across the Bay Area overall. While nominal, San Francisco was the only Bay Area county to record a year-over-year uptick in recorded fourth quarter foreclosures.

∙ California Foreclosure Activity Drops [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Foreclosure Trends And 2011 And Retrospective [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

January 20, 2012

Existing Sales Pace Up And Supply Drops As Median Drops As Well

The pace of seasonally adjusted existing-home sales in the U.S. rose 5.0 percent from a revised 4.39 million in November to a 4.61 million pace in December, up 3.6 percent from the 4.45 million unit pace recorded in December 2010.

Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 9.2 percent to 2.38 million existing homes actively on the market, a 6.2 month supply, down from a 7.2 month supply in November and versus an 8.1 month supply in December 2010.

While demand appears to have increased, and supply appears to have declined, the median sale price for existing-homes was down 2.5 percent year-over-year in December to $164,500 as distressed sales accounted for 32 percent of sales volume, up three points from last month but down three points year-over-year.

Existing-home sales in the west increased 2.6 percent from November to December, down 0.8 percent year-over-year with a median sales price that’s up 0.3 percent.

∙ December Existing-Home Sales Show Uptrend [realtor.org]
∙ From Bad To Worse And Business As Usual At NAR [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

San Francisco County Employment Up By 200 In December

Preliminary December labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rates at 7.6%, 6.5% and 7.2% respectively, down 0.2 percentage points in San Francisco, down 0.4 in Marin, and down 0.3 in San Mateo.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 1,000 in December (from 36,200 to 35,200) while the labor force contracted by 700 (from 464,000 to 463,300) and the number of employed increased by 200 (from 427,800 to 428,000).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment remained at 10.9% as the labor force fell by 13,100 workers while the ranks of the unemployed increased by 8,399.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: December 2011 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Employment Up By 3,100 In November [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

January 19, 2012

Housing Starts Slip From November But Remain Up Year-Over-Year

As we pointed out last month, the November jump in U.S. housing starts was driven by multi-family housing and demand for rentals.

In December, overall housing starts dropped 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted rate but remained 24.9 percent above the rate recorded in December 2010 while single-family starts ticked up 4.4 percent from November, up 11.6 percent year-over-year.

Seasonally adjusted permit activity to start construction was up 7.8 percent on a year over year basis in December, once again driven by demand for multi-family housing with permits for buildings with five or more units increasing 30.6 percent versus a 0.2 percent drop for single-family homes.

Without adjustments for seasonality, preliminary numbers peg overall housing starts up 3.4 percent from 2010 to 2011, down 9.0 percent for single-family homes. Overall permit activity ticked up 1.2 percent from 2010, down 7.5 percent for single-family homes.

In the west, total starts were up 11.0 percent from 2010 to 2011, down 7.1 percent for single-family homes while permit activity was up 3.6 percent, down 7.2 percent for single-family homes.

∙ Housing Starts Up Driven By Demand For Rentals [SocketSite]
∙ New Residential Construction: December 2011 [census.gov]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

January 18, 2012

San Francisco Sales Activity Ticks Up In December, Median Ticks Down

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco was up 1.6% on a year-over-year basis last month (499 recorded sales in December 2011 versus 491 sales in December 2010), up 18.2% as compared to the month prior and versus an average November to December increase of 1.7% over the past seven years. An average of 521 San Francisco homes have sold in December since 2004 when recorded sales volume hit at 646.

San Francisco's median sales price in December was $594,500, down 3.6% on a year-over-year basis and down 7.8% as compared to November in which the median sale price was down 5.2% year-over-year

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in December was up 4.4% on a year-over-year basis, up 18.6% from the month prior (7,494 recorded sales in December '11 versus 7,178 in December ’10 and 6,317 in November '11) as the recorded median sales price was down 6.3% year-over-year, down 3.3% month-over-month.

Last month distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and "short sales" – rose to 49.6 percent of the resale market. That was up from 45.9 percent in November and up from 48.2 percent from December 2010.

Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 28.6 percent of resales in December. That was up from a revised 25.2 percent in November, and down from 30.1 percent a year earlier. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 9 percent.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 21.0 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was up from 20.6 percent in November and up from 18.1 percent a year earlier.

At the extremes, Marin recorded a 23.9% increase in sales volume (a gain of 74 transactions) on a 13.6% decline in median sales price, while San Mateo recorded a 2.3% decrease in sales (a loss of 14 transactions) on a 10.7% decline in median price. The best performing Bay Area county in terms of median sales price was Napa which recorded a 2.4% year-over-year increase, the only uptick throughout the Bay Area.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area Sales Up, Prices Down [DQNews]
∙ Recorded San Francisco Activity Up 2.9% In November, Median Falls [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Foreclosure Trends And 2011 And Retrospective [SocketSite]

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January 9, 2012

San Francisco Foreclosure Trends And 2011 And Retrospective

Pre-foreclosure activity in San Francisco has ticked up from 549 properties in the pipeline in August to 611 today, 39 percent of which are in District 10*. On a year-over-year basis, pre-foreclosure activity is relatively flat with 605 properties in the pipeline in January 2011, 34 percent of which were in District 10.

That being said, the number of properties currently scheduled for auction in San Francisco has dropped significantly since this past August, from 691 to 549 today (40 percent of which are in District 10 versus 43 percent three months prior), down from 690 in January 2011 (at which point 43 percent were in District 10).

Last year roughly 70 percent of scheduled foreclosure auctions in San Francisco were cancelled (only one point above the 69 percent cancellation rate for scheduled auctions in District 10), up from a 66 percent cancellation rate in 2010, 55 percent in 2009, 53 percent in 2008, and 49 percent in 2007.

By our counts, roughly 42 percent of all actual San Francisco foreclosures in 2011 occurred in District 10, up from 39 percent in 2010 but still well below the 48 percent recorded in 2009 or the 58 percent recorded in 2008.

*Editor's Note: In an attempt to match and map two disparate data sets, we include 94124, 94134 and 94112 in "District 10," which results in a slightly larger area than the District as defined by the San Francisco Association of Realtors.

∙ Scheduled Auctions Flat As Pre-Foreclosure Activity Ticks Down [SocketSite]
∙ Scheduled Auctions Up, But Pre-Foreclosure Activity Ticks Down In SF [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Bucks CA Foreclosure Trends, But Not In A Good Way [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Foreclosure Activity Climbs Outside Of District 10 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Association Of Realtors New Neighborhood Map [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

December 30, 2011

Up, Down, And Back To Where It Started For The S&P 500 In 2011

The S&P 500 closed the day and 2011 at 1,257.60, down .04 points (0.0%) from where it started the year and down 7.8% from an April high, but up 14.4% from an October low.

∙ What's The Point? [SocketSite]

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December 29, 2011

U.S. Pending Sales Up 5.9% In November But Failed Closings Loom

As prices continued to tick down in October, the National Associations of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index increased 7.3 percent from October to November, up 5.9 percent year over year.

Keep in mind, however, that NAR's Index reflects contracts not closings and the percentage of Realtors reporting failed contracts remains at 33 percent versus 9 percent at the same time last year.

In the West, the Pending Home Sales Index jumped 14.9 percent from October to November, up 2.9 percent year-over-year.

∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Homes Slip, Condos Dip In October [SocketSite]
∙ Pending Home Sales Rise Again in November [realtor.org]
∙ U.S. Pending Sales Jump In October As Did Reports Of Failed Closings [SocketSite]
∙ From Bad To Worse And Business As Usual At NAR [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

December 27, 2011

S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Homes Slip, Condos Dip In October

According to the October 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.7% from September ’11 to October '11, down 4.7% year-over-year (versus a 5.9% YoY drop in September), down 39.4% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 1.0% from September to October, down 3.0% year-over-year and down 31.9% from a June 2006 peak.

Atlanta and the Midwest are regions that really stand out in terms of recent relative weakness. Atlanta was down 5.0% over the month, after having fallen by 5.9% in September. It also has the weakest annual return, down 11.7%. Chicago, Cleveland Detroit and Minneapolis all posted monthly declines of 1.0% or more in October. These markets were some of the strongest during the spring/summer buying season. However, Detroit is the healthiest when viewed on an annual basis. It is up 2.5% versus October 2010. Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit and Las Vegas are four markets where average prices are below their January 2000 levels; and Atlanta and Las Vegas posted new lows in October.

On a month-over-month basis, prices fell for the bottom third of San Francisco MSA price tiers, pushed for the middle, and nominally increased for the top third.

The bottom third (under $319,767 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.9% from September to October (down 9.1% YOY); the middle third was unchanged from September to October (down 8.1% YOY); and the top third (over $599,697 at the time of acquisition) rose 0.3% from September to October, down 1.6% year-over-year (versus down 3.1% in September).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have dropped below May 2000 levels having fallen 60% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has dropped below March 2002 levels having fallen 41% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has dropped below February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 2.6% from September '11 to October '11, down 8.0% year-over-year, down 35.6% from a December 2005 peak.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Fourth Quarter Starts with Broad-based Declines [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Prices Fell In September [SocketSite]

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December 23, 2011

U.S. New Home Sales: Up 9.8% Year-Over-Year In November

The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. increased to 315,000 in November, up 1.6 percent from a revised rate of 310,000 in October and 9.8 percent above the 287,000 pace recorded in November 2010.

Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in November were estimated to be 22,000 (give or take 8 percent), down 3,000 from October and the second slowest November on record. November sales peaked in 2005 with 86,000 new homes sold.

In the West, the pace of new home sales was up 1.5 percent year-over-year to 69,000 in November, down 16.9 percent versus the month before.

∙ New Residential Sales: November 2011 [census.gov]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales: Up 8.9% Year-Over-Year In October [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (25) | (email story)

December 21, 2011

From Bad To Worse And Business As Usual At NAR

From Bloomberg with respect to the National Association of Realtors revised figures for existing homes sales over the past four years:

The number of existing homes sold in the U.S. was revised down by an average 14 percent since 2007, magnifying the depth of the slump that contributed to the last recession.

Purchases were revised to 4.19 million for 2010, down 15 percent from a prior estimate of 4.91 million, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Sales climbed 4 percent in November to a 4.42 million annual pace, from a revised 4.25 million rate the prior month that reflected the benchmark updates.

Purchases were trimmed by 11 percent for 2007, by 16 percent in 2008 and by 16 percent in 2009.

Revisions to downward median price trends were little changed. And to quote NAR's chief economist, "even before the revisions things were bad, now they are even worse."

∙ U.S. Existing Homes Sold Since ’07 Revised Down by 14% [Bloomberg]
∙ Existing-Home Sales Continue to Climb in November [NAR]
∙ Demand Up, Supply Down, And Yet The Median Falls? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (79) | (email story)

December 20, 2011

Housing Starts Up Driven By Demand For Rentals

Housing starts in the U.S. were up 24.3 percent year over year in November driven by demand for rentals and multi-family housing with construction of structures with five (5) or more units up 180.5 percent year over year while single-family home starts dropped 1.5 percent.

Permit activity to start construction was up 20.7 percent in November on a year over year basis, once again driven by demand for multi-family housing which increased 80.6 percent versus 3.6 percent for single-family homes.

In the west, total starts were up 66.3 percent year over year, up 17.7 percent for single-family homes while total permit activity was up 29.3 percent, up 13.9 percent for single-family homes.

∙ New Residential Construction: November 2011 [doc.gov]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

December 16, 2011

San Francisco County Employment Up By 3,100 In November

Preliminary November labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rates at 7.8%, 6.9% and 7.5% respectively, down 0.3 percentage points in San Francisco and Marin, down 0.4 in San Mateo.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 1,400 in November (from 37,600 to 36,200) while the labor force increased by 1,700 (from 462,300 to 464,000) and the number of employed increased by 3,100 (from 424,700 to 427,800).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment fell to 10.9% as the labor force fell by 35,900 workers and the ranks of the unemployed fell by 71,100.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: November 2011 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Employment Up By 2,700 In October [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (140) | (email story)

December 14, 2011

Recorded San Francisco Activity Up 2.9% In November, Median Falls

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco was up 2.9% on a year-over-year basis last month (422 recorded sales in November 2011 versus 410 sales in November 2010), down 5.8% as compared to the month prior and versus an average October to November volume drop of 7.2% over the past seven years. An average of 520 San Francisco homes have sold in November since 2004 when recorded sales volume hit at 682.

San Francisco's median sales price in November was $644,500, down 5.2% on a year-over-year basis, up 1.5% as compared to October in which the median was down 2.6% YoY.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in November was up 3.4% on a year-over-year basis, down 2.0% from the month prior (6,317 recorded sales in November '11 versus 6,111 in November ’10 and 6,444 in October '11) as the recorded median sales price was down 4.3% year-over-year, up 3.9% month-over-month.

At the extremes, Sonoma County recorded a 16.9% increase in sales volume (a gain of 70 transactions) on an 9.5% decline in median sales price, while Solano County recorded a 5.3% decrease in sales (a loss of 29 transactions) on an 8.2% decline in median price. The best performing Bay Area county in terms of median sales price was Napa which recorded a 1.2% decline while San Mateo recorded a 9.6% drop.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area Home Prices Low, Sales Creep Up [DQNews]
∙ Recorded San Francisco Sales Activity Up 2.8% In October [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

December 13, 2011

Urban Land Institute's Emerging Trends In Real Estate 2012 Report

Keep in mind the Urban Land Institute targets institutional investors and developers. That being said, the lead paragraph from the ULI's Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2012 report:

For 2012, U.S. real estate players must resign themselves to a slowing, grind-it-out recovery following a period of mostly sporadic growth, confined largely to "wealth island" real estate markets—the primary 24-hour gateways located along global pathways. A handful of cities also should continue to benefit from expansion in locally based technology- and energy-related industries. Otherwise, most commercial markets have stabilized, but will find marked improvement in occupancies and rents relatively elusive. Despite some stepped-up bargain hunting, capital generally will continue to avoid commodity real estate in most secondary and tertiary cities. Among the property sectors, only apartments will score especially well: demographic trends and the aftermath of the housing bloodbath combine to increase and sustain demand for multifamily units.

And from the summary for San Francisco, the ULI’s number three U.S. market to watch:

"It’s back"—near the top—and rates as the survey’s best buy for office and apartments. "Bullish market timers bet on room for big future office rent increases, pushing purchase pricing way ahead of fundamentals." Empty buildings counterintuitively look most attractive to some buyers: "They see so much upside in rents." In fact, the South of Market district "catches fire"—reminiscent of pre-tech-bubble-burst days in 2000. Computing and internet firms expand to satisfy young tech-savvy hires who want to work and live in the midst of 24-hour city amenities and action. Unlike tentative tenants in most other markets, Bay Area tech companies readily lease large blocks of space for future expansion. But overall market vacancies still register in the mid- to low teens, and demand in this Pacific gateway can fall suddenly.

∙ Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2012 [uli.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (31) | (email story)

December 12, 2011

San Francisco Listed Sales Volume Up, Median Sale Price Down

The sales volume of listed single-family homes in San Francisco rose 26.0% on a year-over-year basis in November, up 46 sales from 179 in 2010 to 225 in 2011 as the median sale price fell 9.9 percent year-over-year (from $775,000 to $698,000).

With respect to listed condos in San Francisco, sales volume rose 21 percent year-over-year in November, up 35 sales from 166 in 2010 to 201 in 2011 as the median sale price fell 5.4 percent (from $669,000 to $633,000).

∙ Real Estate Market Trends Report [rereport.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

December 5, 2011

An Uptick In Application Fees And Frustrations In San Francisco

From a plugged-in landlord bugged by a reported uptick in application fees for apartments in San Francisco:

I don't charge an application fee. I figure that running a credit check is the cost of doing business, and I only do it on the finalist. It's lame that some are charging dozens the fee for the same place. We know that they're not doing dozens of credit checks.

This makes us all look bad. And it's another reason for the city to figure out how to [reign] over landlords.

One unconfirmed anecdote and hearsay from The Bay Citizen retells the tale of a $3,500 a month loft in the Mission attracting 250 applications at $40 a pop.

∙ In SF's Tight Rental Market, Paying Just to Look [baycitizen.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (21) | (email story)

December 1, 2011

Ciao!

In response to continuing concern surrounding the stability of the European economy, six central banks cut the cost of borrowing yesterday and the financial markets rallied with the S&P 500 jumping 4.3 percent, up 7.6 percent over the past three days.

∙ Ciao? [SocketSite]
∙ What's The Point? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

November 30, 2011

U.S. Pending Sales Jump In October As Did Reports Of Failed Closings

As prices tick down, the National Associations of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index jumped 10.4 percent from September to October, up 9.2 percent year over year.

Keep in mind, however, that NAR's Index reflects contracts not closings and the percentage of Realtors reporting a failed contract* nearly doubled last month, from 18 percent in September to 33 percent in October and versus 8 percent in October 2010.

In the West, the Pending Home Sales Index ticked down 0.3 percent from September to October, up 8.1 percent year-over-year.

UPDATE: The language from the National Association of Realtors last month:

Contract failures reported by NAR members jumped to 33 percent in October from 18 percent in September, and were only 8 percent a year ago, so we should be seeing stronger sales.

More accurately stated, however, the number reflects the percentage of Realtors that report having experienced a contract failure, not the percentage of contracts that have actually failed.

∙ Pending Home Sales Jump in October [realtor.org]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Prices Fell In September [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

November 29, 2011

San Francisco Prestige Index Up 1.0% In Third Quarter, Back To 2004

The First Republic Prestige Home Index for "San Francisco" homes valued at more than $1 million and averaging $2.53 million rose 1.0 percent from the second quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2011, down 1.4 percent on a year-over-year basis, down 17.9 percent from a third quarter 2007 peak and equal to the third quarter of 2004.

As always, keep in mind that the "San Francisco" index includes "a cross-section of luxury homes in Alamo, Atherton, Belvedere, Danville, Healdsburg, Hillsborough, Lafayette, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Mill Valley, Moraga, Orinda, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Portola Valley, Ross, St. Helena, San Francisco, Saratoga, Sonoma, Tiburon and Woodside."

∙ First Republic Prestige Home Index: San Francisco [firstrepublic.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Prices Fell In September

According to the September 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.5% from August ’11 to September '11, down 5.9% year-over-year (versus a 5.3% YoY drop in August), the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year declines and down 39.0% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.4% from August to September, down 3.3% year-over-year and down 31.2% from a June 2006 peak.

"Three cities posted new index lows in September 2011 - Atlanta, Las Vegas and Phoenix. Seventeen of the 20 cities and both Composites were down for the month. Over the last year home prices in most cities drifted lower. The plunging collapse of prices seen in 2007-2009 seems to be behind us. Any chance for a sustained recovery will probably need a stronger economy."

"Detroit and Washington DC posted positive annual rates of change and also saw an improvement in these rates compared to August. Only New York, Portland and Washington DC posted positive monthly returns versus August. It is a bit disturbing that we saw three cities post new crisis lows. For the prior three or four months, only Las Vegas was weakening each month. Now Atlanta and Phoenix have fallen to new lows too. On a monthly basis, Atlanta actually posted a record low rate of -5.9% in September over August. The markets are fairly thin, and the relative lack of closed transactions might be exacerbating the downside."

On a month-over-month basis, prices fell across all three Francisco MSA price tiers which remain down on a year-over-year basis for the tenth month in a row.

The bottom third (under $320,010 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.2% from August to September (down 9.5% YOY); the middle third fell 1.1% from August to September (down 10.1% YOY); and the top third (over $603,426 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.9% from August to September, down 3.1% year-over-year (versus down 2.3% in August).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have dropped below May 2000 levels having fallen 60% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has dropped below March 2002 levels having fallen 41% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has dropped below February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.3% from August '11 to September '11, down 8.7% year-over-year, down 33.9% from a December 2005 peak.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Home Prices Weaken as the Third Quarter Ends [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Prices Relatively Flat In August [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (111) | (email story)

November 28, 2011

U.S. New Home Sales: Up 8.9% Year-Over-Year In October

The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. increased to 307,000 in October, up 1.3 percent from a revised rate of 303,000 in September and 8.9 percent above the 282,000 pace recorded in October 2010.

Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in October were estimated to be 25,000 (give or take 8 percent), matching September’s sales and the second slowest October on record. October sales peaked in 2005 with 105,000 new homes sold.

In the West, the pace of new home sales was up 54.0 percent year-over-year to 77,000 in October, up 14.9 percent versus the month before.

∙ New Residential Sales: June 2011 [census.gov]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

November 23, 2011

What's The Point?

As we wrote two weeks ago and for which we took a bit of heat:

Just when the financial markets seemed to have recovered from the Great Greek Debacle, the S&P 500 dropped 3.67 percent today stoked by uncertainty over Italy and the stability of the Euro as a whole.

The S&P 500 has dropped 8.93 percent since November 9 and is now down 1.60 percent year-over-year. And no, it’s not the daily moves we’re focused on, nor simply the dips, but rather potential turning points, be they bearish or bullish, and the trends.

And with respect to the IPO market and its ups and downs, let’s consider this a safe place to discuss and debate its impact on the San Francisco real estate market as we try to keep our other discussions on topic and track.

∙ Ciao? [SocketSite]
∙ Financial Markets Balk At Vote To Accept Voluntary Writedowns [SocketSite]
∙ Dow Crosses 11,000 As Market Volatility (A.K.A. Skittishness) Wanes [SocketSite]
∙ It Must Just Be Because We're "Bearish," Why Else Would We Care? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (153) | (email story)

November 21, 2011

It Must Just Be Because We're "Bearish," Why Else Would We Care?

∙ S&P Posts Worst Losing Streak in Two Months [Bloomberg]
∙ Kostin: S&P 500 May Fall to 1,100 [Bloomberg]
∙ Ciao? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (26) | (email story)

Demand Up, Supply Down, And Yet The Median Falls?

The pace of seasonally adjusted existing-home sales in the U.S. rose 1.4 percent from 4.90 million in September to a 4.97 million pace in October, up 13.5 percent from the 4.38 million unit pace recorded in October 2010.

Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 2.2 percent to 3.33 million existing homes actively on the market, an 8.0 month supply, down from an 8.3 month supply in September and down from a 10.5 month supply in October 2010.

While demand appears to have increased, and supply appears to have declined, the median sale price for existing-homes was down 4.7 percent year-over-year in October to $162,500 as distressed sales accounted for 28 percent of sales volume, down two points from last month, down six points year-over-year.

Existing-home sales in the west increased 4.4 percent from September to October, up 15.5 percent on a year-over-year basis on a median sales price that’s 1.6 percent lower.

∙ October Existing-Home Sales Rise, Unsold Inventory Continues to Decline [realtor.org]

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November 18, 2011

San Francisco County Employment Up By 2,700 In October

Preliminary October labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rates at 8.1%, 7.2% and 7.9% respectively, down 0.1 percentage points in San Francisco and San Mateo, down 0.2 in Marin.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 300 in October (from 37,900 to 37,600) while the labor force increased by 2,700 (from 459,600 to 462,300) and the number of employed increased by 3,000 (from 421,700 to 424,700).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment fell to 11.3% as the labor force increased by 55,200 workers and the ranks of the unemployed fell by 18,700.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: October 2011 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco And California Employment Increase In September [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

November 17, 2011

San Francis Wood (And Nine Others) On The Courthouse Steps

Purchased for $2,000,000 in 2003, and having traded for $888,000 in 1996, the 4,210 square foot home at 136 Saint Francis Boulevard was refinanced in 2006 with a new $2,120,000 first mortgage.

With a first reported default date of 2/12/10, at which point the loan was already $127,698 past due, it’s now twenty-one months later, the loan balance on the $2,120,000 note is over $2,500,000, and 136 Saint Francis Boulevard is scheduled to hit the courthouse steps in San Francisco tomorrow afternoon.

In addittion to 136 Saint Francis, nine other homes are also scheduled to hit the steps in San Francisco tomorrow with original default dates ranging from 7/27/07 for 1000 Crescent Avenue to 12/28/10 for the single-family at 86 Byxbee.

∙ Preforeclosure Activity Picks Up Speed Across San Francisco [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

November 16, 2011

Recorded San Francisco Sales Activity Up 2.8% In October

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco was up 2.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (448 recorded sales in October 2011 versus 436 sales in October 2010), up 12.3% as compared to the month prior and versus an average September to October increase of 0.1% over the past seven years. An average of 543 San Francisco homes have sold in October since 2004 when recorded sales volume hit at 720.

San Francisco's median sales price in October was $635,000, down 2.6% on a year-over-year basis, up 3.5% as compared to September in which the median was down 1.0% YoY.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in October was up 5.3% on a year-over-year basis, down 4.5% from the month prior (6,444 recorded sales in October '11 versus 6,122 in October ’10 and 6,749 in September '11) as the recorded median sales price was down 8.6% year-over-year, down 4.1% month-over-month.

At the extremes, Sonoma County recorded a 26.9% increase in sales volume (a gain of 104 transactions) on a 8.3% decline in median sales price, while Contra Costa County recorded a 0.3% decrease in sales (a loss of 4 transactions) on a 3.6% decline in median price. Napa was the only Bay Area county to record an increase in median sales price (up 1.0%) while the median dropped 10.4% in Santa Clara.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area Home Sales Up From 2010, Prices Down [DQNews]
∙ Recorded San Francisco Sales Activity Drops 9.7% In September [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (36) | (email story)

November 9, 2011

Preforeclosure Activity Picks Up Speed Across San Francisco

Having ticked down from April to August, preforeclosure activity in San Francisco has jumped 19 percent since, with 651 properties in the preforeclosure pipeline versus 549 two months ago, nearing the 660 mark we recorded in April and 8 percent higher than the 605 we recorded in January.

While up 9 percent in real estate Districts 1 through 9, the bulk of the net new preforeclosure activity has been in District 10*, up 32 percent over the past two months and representing 38 percent of pre-foreclosure activity in San Francisco, up from 34 percent in January.

Naturally following the mid-year dip in preforeclosure activity, the number of scheduled auctions in San Francisco has fallen to 581, down 16 percent over the past two months, having dropped 28 percent in District 10 which now represents 41 percent of the scheduled auctions in San Francisco, the lowest percentage we’ve recorded all year.

Editor’s Note: In an attempt to match and map two disparate data sets, we include 94124, 94134 and 94112 in "District 10," which results in a slightly larger area than the District as defined by the San Francisco Association of Realtors.

∙ Scheduled Auctions Flat As Pre-Foreclosure Activity Ticks Down [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Bucks CA Foreclosure Trends, But Not In A Good Way [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Association Of Realtors New Neighborhood Map [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (54) | (email story)

November 7, 2011

San Francisco Rents Up 9 Percent As Vacancy Rate Drops To 3.2

According to a survey of apartment buildings by Cassidy Turley, the rental vacancy rate has dropped to 3.2 percent in San Francisco as average rents have climbed 9 percent over the past year, one point below the double-digit growth rate we noted to expect in May.

∙ The Rising Rents Versus Falling Prices Paradox And Salary Debate [SocketSite]
∙ Tech Job Quote Triptych [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (78) | (email story)

November 3, 2011

It’s Déjà Foreclosure All Over Again For 38 Alviso

In 1989 the Ingleside Terrace home at 38 Alviso Street was purchased for $355,000.

Five years later, with the median sale price per square foot in the neighborhood having dropped by 13 percent (from $236 to $206), 38 Alviso was foreclosed upon and resold by the bank for $240,000.

In 2006, with the median sale price per square foot in the neighborhood hitting $617 (climbing to $681 in 2007), and having been expanded in 2005, 38 Alviso sold for $1,100,000 by way of an $825,000 first, a $165,000 second, and $110,000 down.

In default by September 2009, and having skirted a couple of forced sales since, 38 Alviso is once again scheduled to hit the (somewhat less collusive) courthouse steps in San Francisco this afternoon with $1,106,630 now due on that $825,000 first mortgage alone.

The median sale price in the neighborhood is currently running around $557 per square foot, down from $564 per square in 2010 and below the $571 per square recorded in 2004.

∙ The San Francisco Foreclosure Rigging Four [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

October 25, 2011

S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Prices Relatively Flat In August

According to the August 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell a nominal 0.1% from July ’11 to August '11 but remain down 5.3% year-over-year (versus a 5.6% YoY drop in July), the eigth consecutive month of year-over-year declines and down 38.1% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values increased a nominal 0.1% from July to August, down 3.5% year-over-year, down 30.9% from a June 2006 peak.

"In the August data, the good news is continued improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices. In spring and summer’s seasonally strong period for housing demand, we cautioned that monthly increases in prices had to be paired with improvement in annual rates before anyone could declare that the market might be stabilizing. With 16 of 20 cities and both Composites seeing their annual rates of change improve in August, we see a modest glimmer of hope with these data. As of August 2011, the crisis low for the 10-City Composite was back in April 2009; whereas it was a more recent March 2011 for the 20-City Composite. Both are about 3.9% above their relative lows.

"The Midwest is one region that really stands out in terms of recent relative strength. Chicago, Detroit and Minneapolis have all posted very sharp monthly increases going back to May. These markets were some of the weakest during the crisis, particularly Detroit. But as of August 2011, Detroit is the healthiest when viewed on an annual basis. It is up 2.7% versus August 2010. Prices there are still back to their 1995 levels, but the recent pickup in the US auto industry may finally be helping."

On a month-over-month basis, prices fell across the bottom and middle San Francisco MSA price tiers and were unchanged for the top. On a year-over-year basis, however, values remained down across all three tiers.

The bottom third (under $321,866 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.5% from July to August (down 8.0% YOY); the middle third fell 0.7% from July to August (down 9.6% YOY); and the top third (over $608,109 at the time of acquisition) was unchanged, down 2.3% year-over-year.

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have dropped below June 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third remains below April 2002 levels having fallen 41% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third remains at February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell a nominal 0.2% from July '11 to August '11, down 9.0% year-over-year, down 33.0% from a December 2005 peak.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Annual Rates of Change Continue to Improve [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: SFH’s Moderate, Condos Fall In July [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (80) | (email story)

October 21, 2011

San Francisco And California Employment Increase In September

Preliminary September labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 8.3%, 7.4% and 8.0% respectively, down 0.5 percentage points in San Francisco, down 0.4 in Marin and 0.3 in San Mateo.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 2,300 in September (from 40,200 to 37,900) while the labor force increased by 1,000 (from 458,600 to 459,600) and the number of employed increased from 418,400 to 421,700.

Overall unadjusted California unemployment fell to 11.4% as the labor force increased by 50,400 workers and the ranks of the unemployed fell by 89,000.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: September 2011 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Employment Increases In August [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

October 14, 2011

Recorded San Francisco Sales Activity Drops 9.7% In September

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 9.7% on a year-over-year basis last month (399 recorded sales in September 2011 versus 442 sales in September 2010), down 17.6% as compared to the month prior and versus an average August to September seasonal drop of 8.7% over the past seven years. An average of 537 San Francisco homes have sold in September since 2004 when recorded sales volume hit at 763.

San Francisco's median sales price in September was $613,750, down 1.0% on a year-over-year basis and down 0.8% as compared to this past August.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in September was up 6.6% on a year-over-year basis, down 10.2% from the month prior (6,749 recorded sales in September '11 versus 6,334 in September ’10 and 7,513 in August '11) as the recorded median sales price fell 7.6% year-over-year, down 1.2% month-over-month.

At the extremes, San Francisco was the only County that failed to record an uptick in sales volume while San Mateo recorded a 17.4% increase (up 90 transactions) on a 3.6% decline in median price. San Francisco recorded the smallest drop in terms of median sales price while the median sale price dropped 13% in Contra Costa as volume increased 5.4%.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area Home Sales Up, Prices Down from Year Ago [DQNews]
∙ Recorded Sales Activity Up 7.3% In August As The Median Drops [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (31) | (email story)

San Francisco Listed Sales Volume Ticks Up On Lower Median

The sales volume of listed single-family homes in San Francisco rose 11.0% on a year-over-year basis in September, up 19 sales from 173 in 2010 to 192 in 2011 as the median sales price fell 5.3 percent year-over-year (from $710,000 to $672,500).

With respect to condos, listed sales volume fell 5.7 percent on a year-over-year basis in September, down 11 sales from 194 in 2010 to 183 in 2011 as the median sales price fell 5.3 percent from $631,500 to $598,199.

∙ Real Estate Market Trends Report [rereport.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

October 6, 2011

30-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Below 4 Percent And...Activity Drops

According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates averaged 3.94 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending October 6, 2011, down from 4.01 percent last week and versus 4.27 percent a year ago.

At the same time, mortgage applications to purchase homes in the U.S. dropped 1.7 percent last week (refinancing activity fell 5.2 percent), down 12.1 percent on a year-over-year basis according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

∙ 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Falls Below 4 Percent [Freddie Mac]
∙ Mortgage Applications, except Government Refinances, Decrease [mbaa.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

October 4, 2011

The Rising Rents Versus Falling Prices Paradox And Salary Debate

A reader's comment from our report on 44 Rockaway Avenue that sparked a discussion that’s topical and worth its own place for debate:

[Here] is the explanation of how SOMA rental units can be doing pretty well, but why that has not correlated with more home sales and thus prices keep falling: local tech jobs just don't pay all that well. It's enough for a 28-year-old to rent a decent small-ish pad. But it is not nearly enough to buy a nice SF place, especially if you have kids.

Feel free to join in, but if you do, please stick with a unique identity that's your own.

∙ Look Out Below [SocketSite]
∙ Tech Job Quote Triptych [SocketSite]
∙ Here Are The Top 7 Highest Paying Companies In Silicon Valley [businessinsider.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (185) | (email story)

September 28, 2011

The "$2.8 Million Dream Home" On Mountain Spring Drops To $2.5M

As the new agent for 65 Mountain Spring Avenue wrote when the property returned to the market earlier this month listed for $2,675,000 having been listed by the sellers who are brokers themselves for as much as $3,950,000 in June 2010:

Many, many [sellers] with homes on the market over the past 2-3 years have been surprised by the values of their homes. Having previously appraised near the former asking price, the market has now changed.

It has changed indeed. And late yesterday, the list price for the Clarendon Heights home was reduced $180,000, now asking $2,495,000 for the "$2.8 million" dream house.

∙ Listing: 65 Mountain Spring (4/3) 3,513 sqft - $2,495,000 [65mountainspringave.com]
∙ A Regularly Recurring Dream [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Dreaming At 65 Mountain Spring Avenue [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

September 27, 2011

S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: SFH’s Moderate, Condos Fall In July

According to the July 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA increased a nominal 0.3% from June ’11 to July '11 but remain down 5.6% year-over-year (YOY), the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year declines, down 38.1% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values increased 0.9% from June to July but remain down 3.7% year-over-year, down 31.0% from a June 2006 peak.

"With July’s data we are seeing not only anticipated monthly increases, but some fairly broad improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. "This is still a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are expected and were seen in 17 of the 20 cities. The exceptions were Las Vegas and Phoenix where prices fell, while Denver was flat. The better news is that 14 of 20 cities and both Composites saw their annual rates of change improve in July."

"While we have now seen four consecutive months of generally increasing prices, we do know that we are still far from a sustained recovery. Eighteen of the 20 cities and both Composites are showing that home prices are still below where they were a year ago. The 10-City Composite is down 3.7% and the 20-City is down 4.1% compared to July 2010. Continued increases in home prices through the end of the year and better annual results must materialize before we can confirm a housing market recovery."

On a month-over-month basis, prices rose across the top and bottom San Francisco MSA price tiers, falling in the middle. On a year-over-year basis, however, values remained down across all three tiers.

The bottom third (under $319,938 at the time of acquisition) increased 0.8% from June to July (down 7.9% YOY); the middle third fell 1.0% from June to July (down 10.1% YOY); and the top third (over $601,361 at the time of acquisition) ticked up 0.5% from June to July but remains down 2.9% year-over-year.

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have returned to June 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third remains just below April 2002 levels having fallen 40% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third remains at February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.1% from June '11 to July '11, down 9.4% year-over-year versus a 6.8% YoY drop in July, down 32.9% from a December 2005 peak.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Home Prices Continue to Show Seasonal Strength [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: SFH’s Tick Up, Condos Down In June [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (27) | (email story)

September 26, 2011

U.S. New Home Sales: Up 6.1% Year-Over-Year In August

The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. fell to 295,000 in August, down 2.3 percent from a revised rate of 302,000 in July but up 6.1 percent versus the 278,000 pace recorded in August 2010.

Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in August were estimated to be 26,000 (give or take 8 percent), two thousand lower than in July and the second slowest August on record. August sales peaked in 2005 with 110,000 new homes sold.

In the West, the pace of new home sales was down 10.6 percent year-over-year to 66,000, down 6.3 percent versus the month before.

∙ New Residential Sales: June 2011 [census.gov]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales: Up 6.8% Year-Over-Year In July [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

September 23, 2011

San Francisco's "Wall Street Wrecking Ball" Report And Rally

At 12:30 this afternoon, Assessor-Recorder Phil Ting along with Supervisors Avalos, Cohen and Mirkarimi will gather at City Hall to address the "Wall Street Wrecking Ball" report for San Francisco, "uniting behind solutions to help homeowners facing foreclosure and City Hall deal with the economic and budget impact of the mortgage crisis."

The Supervisors and Assessor-Recorder will be joined by leaders of the Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment (ACCE) and California Reinvestment Coalition (CRC) which are publishing the new findings, as well as foreclosure victims from Bayview-Hunter’s Point and Ingleside-Excelsior who will detail their individual accounts of how foreclosures are wreaking havoc on our families and neighborhoods.

No word on whether or not Supervisor Cohen plans to detail her account of walking away from the condo she purchased with no money down in 2006, leaving "Wall Street" to absorb her $261,500 loss.

∙ The Wall Street Wrecking Ball: San Francisco Report [calorganize.org]
∙ Scheduled Auctions Flat As Pre-Foreclosure Activity Ticks Down [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Supervisor Cohen Walks Away From Underwater Condo [SocketSite]
∙ Cohen’s The Bank’s Candlestick Point Condo Closes Escrow [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (76) | (email story)

September 21, 2011

The Fed's "Twist" And The Markets Tumble

Citing "significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets," and in a move dubbed "Operation Twist," the Federal Reserve announced it will sell $400 billion of short-term debt holdings and purchase an equal amount of longer-term Treasuries in an attempt to further reduce borrowing costs "and keep the economy from relapsing into a recession."

The S&P 500 responded to the Fed's news by dropping 2.94 percent, the Dow dropped 2.49 percent, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.01 percent. And keep in mind that mortgage rates are already at historic lows.

∙ Fed Will Shift Treasury Holdings to Longer-Term Securities [Bloomberg]
∙ How Low Can They Go? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (29) | (email story)

Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Up 18.6% Year-Over-Year In August

The pace of seasonally adjusted existing-home sales in the U.S. rose 7.7 percent from 4.67 million in July to a 5.03 million pace in August, up 18.6 percent from the 4.24 million unit pace in August 2010 which was down 19.0 percent year-over-year and the second lowest pace on record.

The median sale price for existing-homes in August was down 5.1 percent year-over-year (versus a 4.4 percent drop in July) to $168,300 as distressed sales accounted for 31 percent of sales volume, up two points from last month but down five points year-over-year. Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 3.0 percent to 3.58 million, a 8.5 month supply, down from 9.5 months in July.

Existing-home sales in the west jumped 18.3 percent from July to August, up 20.6 percent on a year-over-year basis on a median sales price that was 13.0 percent lower versus 7.1 percent lower last month.

∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Up 21.0% Year-Over-Year In July [SocketSite]
∙ August Existing-Home Sales Rise Despite Headwinds [realtor.org]
∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Up 7.6% To Second Lowest On Record [SocketSite 2010] 

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

September 16, 2011

Recorded Sales Activity Up 7.3% In August As The Median Drops

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco increased 7.3% on a year-over-year basis last month (484 recorded sales in August 2011 versus 451 sales in August 2010), up 9.0% as compared to the month prior versus an average July to August increase of 0.3% over the past seven years. An average of 613 San Francisco homes have sold in August since 2004 when recorded sales volume hit at 814.

San Francisco's median sales price in August was $618,500, down 5.2% on a year-over-year basis and down 8.4% as compared to this past July.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in August was up 12.2% on a year-over-year basis, up 9.1% from the month prior (7,513 recorded sales in August '11 versus 6,698 in August ’10 and 6,887 in July '11) as the recorded median sales price fell 3.9% year-over-year, down 1.1% month-over-month.

At the extremes, Napa was the only County to not record an uptick in sales volume (flat at 121) but did record a 9.6% decline in median sales price, while Marin recorded a 28.8% increase in volume (up 59 transactions) on a 4.5% decline in median price. Santa Clara was the only county to record an uptick in median sales price at 2.4%.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area Housing Market Takes a Breather [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 1.8% In July [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

San Francisco County Employment Increases In August

Preliminary August labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 8.8%, 7.8% and 8.3% respectively, down 0.3 percentage points in San Francisco and Marin, down 0.4 percentage points in San Mateo.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 1,100 in August (from 41,300 to 40,200) while the labor force increased by 1,900 (from 456,700 to 458,600) and the number of employed increased from 415,400 to 418,400.

Overall unadjusted California unemployment fell to 11.9% as the labor force contracted by 16,100 workers and the ranks of the unemployed fell by 99,400.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: August 2011 (Preliminary) [EDD]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

September 8, 2011

How Low Can They Go?

According to Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, mortgage rates have hit all-time record lows "amid market and employment concerns and economic uncertainty."

The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan has dropped to 4.12 percent versus 4.32 percent last month and 4.35 percent a year ago, while the average 15-year rate has fallen to 3.33 percent versus 3.5 percent last month and 3.83 percent year-over-year.

∙ Mortgage Rates Attain New All-Time Record Lows Again [Freddie Mac]
∙ Silver Lining: The Cost Of Mortgage Money Drops [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

August 30, 2011

S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: SFH’s Tick Up, Condos Down In June

According to the June 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA increased a nominal 0.4% from May ’11 to June '11 but remain down 5.4% year-over-year (YOY), the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines and down 38.2% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values increased 0.8% from May to June but remain down 3.8% year-over-year, down 31.6% from a June 2006 peak.

"This month’s report showed mixed signals for recovery in home prices. No cities made new lows in June 2011, and the majority of cities are seeing improved annual rates. The National Index was up 3.6% from the 2011 first quarter, but down 5.9% compared to a year-ago," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices.

"Looking across the cities, eight bottomed in 2009 and have remained above their lows. These include all the California cities plus Dallas, Denver and Washington DC, all relatively strong markets. At the other extreme, those which set new lows in 2011 include the four Sunbelt cities – Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa – as well as the weakest of all, Detroit. These shifts suggest that we are back to regional housing markets, rather than a national housing market where everything rose and fell together."

On a month-over-month basis, prices rose across all three price tiers in the San Francisco MSA for the second time in twelve months. On a year-over-year basis, however, values remained down across all three tiers.

The bottom third (under $317,976 at the time of acquisition) increased 0.5% from May to June (down 6.6% YOY); the middle third increased 0.6% from May to June (down 8.1% YOY); and the top third (over $594,261 at the time of acquisition) ticked up a nominal 0.2% from May to June but remain down 3.7% year-over-year.

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are just below June 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is just below April 2002 levels having fallen 40% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third remains at February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.8% from May ’11 to June '11, down 6.8% year-over-year versus a 5.4% drop in May and down 32.2% from a December 2005 peak.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Nationally, Home Prices Went Up in Q2 2011 [Standard & Poor's]
∙ May S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Seasonality Or Solid Trend? [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco’s Condo "Double Dip" Is (Or Was) Here [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

August 26, 2011

No New Stimulus For You! (At Least Not This Month)

According to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, although problems still exist (think unemployment and sagging home prices), "the growth fundamentals of the United States do not appear to have been permanently altered by the shocks of the past four years" and the Chairman remains "optimistic" as the U.S. economy grew at a 1 percent pace in the second quarter of 2011, down from a previously estimated 1.3 percent.

And while Bernanke set the stage for more stimulus back in July, he didn’t signal any intent to let the stimulus players take the stage at this point but implied the curtain, or at least script, could be raised next month.

∙ Ben Drops The D Word (And Sets The Stage For More Stimulus) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (37) | (email story)

August 25, 2011

Scheduled Auctions Flat As Pre-Foreclosure Activity Ticks Down

Pre-foreclosure activity in San Francisco has dropped from 576 properties in the pipeline in June to 549 today, 32 percent of which are in District 10*, down from 34 percent in January but up from 30 percent in March.

That being said, the number of properties actually scheduled for auction has remained relatively flat over the past two months at 691 today versus 689 in June, 43 percent of which are in District 10 (versus 41 percent in June).

And once again, while 39 percent of San Francisco foreclosures last year were in District 10, that’s down from 48 percent in 2009, and down from 58 percent in 2008.

Editor’s Note: In an attempt to match and map two disparate data sets, we include 94124, 94134 and 94112 in "District 10," which results in a slightly larger area than the District as defined by the San Francisco Association of Realtors.

∙ Scheduled Auctions Up, But Pre-Foreclosure Activity Ticks Down In SF [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Bucks CA Foreclosure Trends, But Not In A Good Way [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Foreclosure Activity Climbs Outside Of District 10 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Association Of Realtors New Neighborhood Map [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

August 23, 2011

U.S. New Home Sales: Up 6.8% Year-Over-Year In July

The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. fell to 298,000 in July, down 0.7 percent from a revised rate of 300,000 in June but up 6.8 percent versus the 279,000 pace recorded in July 2010.

Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in July were estimated to be 27,000 (give or take 8 percent), one thousand lower than in June.

In the West, the pace of new home sales was up 45.4 percent year-over-year to 44,000, down 5.9 percent versus the month before.

And yes, think tax credits with respect to below average volumes in July 2010.

∙ New Residential Sales: June 2011 [census.gov]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales: Up 1.6% Year-Over-Year In June [SocketSite]
∙ Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension For Closing (Not Contract) Date [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

August 19, 2011

Three Thousand Newly Employed People In San Francisco Last Month

Preliminary July labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 9.0%, 8.1% and 8.7% respectively, flat in San Francisco and San Mateo, up 0.1 percentage points in Marin.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco increased by 500 in July (from 40,800 to 41,300) as the labor force increased by 3,500 (from 453,200 to 456,700) and the number of employed increased by 3,000 (from 412,400 to 415,400).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment increased to 12.4% as the labor force increased by 59,800 workers while the ranks of the unemployed increased by 73,900, up 201,900 over the past two months.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: May 2011 (Preliminary) [EDD]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

August 18, 2011

Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Up 21.0% Year-Over-Year In July

The pace of seasonally adjusted existing-home sales in the U.S. fell 3.5 percent from 4.84 million in June to a 4.67 million pace in July, up 21.0 percent from "the 3.86 million unit pace in July 2010, which was a cyclical low immediately following the expiration of the home buyer tax credit" and down over 25 percent year-over-year.

Contract failures – cancellations caused largely by declined mortgage applications or failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price – were unchanged in July, reported by 16 percent of NAR members. In addition, 9 percent of Realtors® report a contract was delayed in the past three months due to low appraisals, and another 13 percent said a contract was renegotiated to a lower sales price because an appraisal was below the initially agreed price.

The median sale price for existing-homes in July was down 4.4 percent year-over-year to $174,000 as distressed sales accounted for 29 percent of sales volume, down one point from last month and three points year-over-year. Total housing inventory at the end of July fell 1.7 percent to 3.65 million, a 9.4 month supply, down from 9.5 months in June.

Existing-home sales in the west fell 12.6 percent from June to July, up 16.9 percent on a year-over-year basis on a median sales price that was 7.1 percent lower.

∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Down 8.8% Year-Over-Year In June [SocketSite]
∙ Existing-Home Sales Down in July but Up Strongly From a Year Ago [realtor.org]
∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Plunges 27.2% In July (25.5% YOY) [SocketSite 2010]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

August 17, 2011

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 1.8% In July

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 1.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (444 recorded sales in July 2011 versus 452 sales in July 2010), down 16.7% as compared to the month prior versus an average June to July decline of 9.8% since 2004.

Over the past six years, an average of 616 San Francisco homes have sold in July with 893 recorded sales in July 2004.

San Francisco's median sales price in July was $675,000, down a nominal 0.2% compared to July 2010, up 1.5% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in July was up 1.7% on a year-over-year basis, down 13.9% from the month prior (6,887 recorded sales in July '11 versus 6,773 in July ’10 and 7,998 in June '11) as the recorded median sales price fell 7.0% year-over-year, down 1.0% month-over-month.

At the extremes, Napa County recorded a 9.5% drop in sales volume (a loss of 11 transactions) on a 23.0% decline in median sales price while Solano recorded a 7.5% increase in volume (up 42 transactions) on a 11.2% decline in median price. No county recorded an uptick in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area Housing Market Takes a Breather [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 7.0% In June [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (39) | (email story)

Purchase Mortgage Volume Down 1.1% Year-Over-Year

With average 30-year mortgage rates falling by 5 basis points over the past week to a 2011 low of 4.32 percent, mortgage application volume for purchases in the U.S. is running 1.1% lower on a year-over-year basis (down 10.1% week-over-week) while refinancing activity increased 8.0% last week, down 16.3% on a year-over-year basis.

∙ Silver Lining: The Cost Of Mortgage Money Drops [SocketSite]
∙ Mortgage Bankers Association Applications Survey: 8/17/10 [mortgagebankers.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

August 11, 2011

Assessed Values Drop $2.4 Billion In San Francisco, Appeals By 9/15

The assessed value for 18,800 properties have been reduced by San Francisco’s Assessor-Recorder office, down $2.4 billion in assessed value with the Mission Bay (1,236 reductions) and South Beach (874 reductions) neighborhoods leading the way.

If they haven’t already, property owners in San Francisco should soon receive Notices of Assessed Value (NAV) letters confirming their assessed property value, and any reductions, for tax purposes.

Homeowners who believe their assessed property value is greater than their property market value as of January 1, 2011 can file an appeal by September 15, 2011 with San Francisco’s independent Assessment Appeal Board.

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

Silver Lining: The Cost Of Mortgage Money Drops

"Mortgage rates for 30-year loans in the U.S. declined to a nine-month low as concern grew that the nation’s economy is slowing. The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan dropped to 4.32 percent in the week ended today from 4.39 percent, according to Freddie Mac. The average 15-year fixed-loan rate fell to 3.5 percent, the lowest on record..."

∙ 30-Year Mortgage Rates Fall to 9-Month Low [Bloomberg]
∙ Numerology Nuts (And Everyone Else) Take Note [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

August 10, 2011

Big Swinging...S&P

From an inauspicious 11,444 close on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 10,809 on Monday, bounced to 11,239 on Tuesday, and closed today at 10,719.94, down 500 points.

Having fallen 6.66 percent on Monday to 1,119, the S&P 500 bounced 4.74 percent on Tuesday and then fell 4.41 percent today, closing the day at 1,120.76.

∙ Comments: Numerology Nuts (And Everyone Else) Take Note [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

August 8, 2011

Numerology Nuts (And Everyone Else) Take Note

While the number eight is lucky, the number four is death, and on Friday the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the day at a rather inauspicious 11,444. Today, the Dow fell 5.55 percent, closing at 10,809 while the S&P 500 fell to 1,119, a drop of 6.66 percent.

∙ S&P 500 Extends Worst Slump Since 2008 Bear Market [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (115) | (email story)

August 4, 2011

Make That 75 Percent

From the New York Times today:

Even with the sharp drop in stocks over the last week, the Dow Jones is up about 80 percent from its low in March 2009. And with the overall economy nowhere near its recession lows, buying nice, expensive things is back in vogue for people who can afford it.

Make that 75 percent as consumer confidence wanes. And once again, Red Rover, Red Rover, send the economic recovery back over...

∙ Even Marked Up, Luxury Goods Fly Off Shelves [New York Times]
∙ Stocks Tumble as Two-Year Treasury Yield Drops to Record Low [Bloomberg]
∙ Consumer Confidence in U.S. Declines [Bloomberg]
∙ Red Rover, Red Rover, Send The Economic Recovery Back Over [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (34) | (email story)

August 2, 2011

Red Rover, Red Rover, Send The Economic Recovery Back Over

"Federal Reserve policy makers may start weighing additional steps to prop up the recovery after growth fell below 1 percent in the first half of this year and economists began cutting second-half growth forecasts."

∙ Fed May Weigh More Stimulus on Slow Recovery [Bloomberg]
∙ Ben Drops The D Word (And Sets The Stage For More Stimulus) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (55) | (email story)

July 26, 2011

U.S. New Home Sales: Up 1.6% Year-Over-Year In June

The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. fell to 312,000 in June, down 1.0 percent from a revised rate of 315,000 in April but up 1.6 percent versus the 307,000 pace recorded in June 2010.

Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in June were estimated to be 29,000 (give or take 8 percent), one thousand lower than in April and the second lowest June on record since 1963.

In the West, the pace of new home sales was up 23.2 percent year-over-year to 69,000, down 12.7 percent versus the month before.

∙ New Residential Sales: June 2011 [census.gov]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales: Up 13.5% Year-Over-Year In May [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

May S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Seasonality Or Solid Trend?

According to the May 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA increased 1.8% from April ’11 to May '11, down 38.4% from a peak in May 2006 and down 5.4% year-over-year (YOY), the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines but versus a 5.5% year-over-year decline as recorded in April.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values increased a nominal 0.7% from April to May, down 32.1% from a June 2006 peak as values fell 3.6% year-over-year.

"We see some seasonal improvements with May’s data," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. "This is a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are to be expected and were seen in 16 of the 20 cities. The exceptions where prices fell were Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa. However, 19 of 20 cities saw prices drop over the last 12 months. The concern is that much of the monthly gains are only seasonal."

"While the monthly data were encouraging, most MSAs and both Composites fared poorly in annual terms. Nineteen of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites posted negative annual growth rates in May 2011. The 10-City Composite was down 3.6% and the 20-City Composite was down 4.5% in May 2011 versus May 2010. Minneapolis posted a double-digit decline in annual rate of 11.7%. The only beacon of hope was Washington D.C. with a +1.3% annual growth rate and a +2.4% monthly increase. We have now seen two consecutive months of generally improving prices; however, we might have a long way to go before we see a real recovery. Sustained increases in home prices over several months and better annual results need to be seen before we can confirm real estate market recovery."

On a month-over-month basis, prices rose across all three price tiers in the San Francisco MSA for the first time in eleven months. On a year-over-year basis, however, values declined across all three tiers.

The bottom third (under $317,708 at the time of acquisition) increased 1.1% from April to May (down 6.3% YOY); the middle third increased 1.3% from April to May (down 8.6% YOY); and the top third (over $589,634 at the time of acquisition) ticked up 0.9% from April to May, down 4.5% on a year-over-year basis versus 3.9% the month before.

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are just above May 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is just above March 2002 levels having fallen 40% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has returned to February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.5% from April ’11 to May '11, down 5.4% year-over-year, down 31.6% from a December 2005 peak.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: April Seasonal Boost in Home Prices [Standard & Poor's]
∙ April S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Benefits From A "Seaonal" Kick [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco’s Condo "Double Dip" Is (Or Was) Here [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (21) | (email story)

July 25, 2011

The Manhattanization Hotelization Of San Francisco

"We call it the ‘hotelization’ of San Francisco," [executive director of the San Francisco Tenants Union, Ted Gullicksen] said. "Seniors, families and low-income tenants are being pushed out. We have to fight for every affordable unit."

∙ Conversion of Apartments to Rentals for Tourists Is Surging [nytimes.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (30) | (email story)

July 21, 2011

San Francisco Property Tax Roll Up 1.3 Percent Year-Over-Year

According to Assessor-Recorder Phil Ting, the City and County of San Francisco’s property roll value grew by 1.3 percent over the past fiscal year to $163 billion. The commercial versus residential breakdown was as follows:

Commercial: +0.46%
Industrial: +1.72%
Multi-family Residential: +1.32%
Single-Family Residential: +3.05%

At the same time, 18,800 San Francisco homeowners received a one-year temporary reduction in the assessed value of their properties, 16,000 of which were given out proactively.

Posted by socketadmin at 1:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

July 20, 2011

Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Down 8.8% Year-Over-Year In June

The pace of seasonally adjusted existing-home sales in the U.S. fell 0.8 percent from 4.81 million in May to a 4.77 million pace in June, down 8.8 percent on a year-over-year basis.

"Home sales had been trending up without a tax stimulus, but a variety of issues are weighing on the market including an unusual spike in contract cancellations in the past month," [NAR chief economist, Lawrence Yun] said.

"The underlying reason for elevated cancellations is unclear, but with problems including tight credit and low appraisals, 16 percent of NAR members report a sales contract was cancelled in June, up from 4 percent in May, which stands out in contrast with the pattern over the past year."

The median sale price for existing-homes in June was up 0.8 percent year-over-year to $184,300 as distressed sales accounted for 30 percent of sales volume, down one point from last month and two points year-over-year. Total housing inventory at the end of June rose 3.3 percent to 3.77 million, a 9.5 month supply, up from 9.1 months in May.

Existing-home sales in the west fell 1.7 percent from May to June, down 2.6 percent on a year-over-year basis on a median sales price that’s up 9.5 percent.

∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Down 15.3% Year-Over-Year In May [SocketSite]
∙ June Existing-Home Sales Slip on Contract Cancellations [realtor.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

July 14, 2011

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 7.0% In June

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 7.0% on a year-over-year basis last month (533 recorded sales in June 2011 versus 573 sales in June 2010), up 8.3% as compared to the month prior versus an average May to June decline of 1.6% since 2004.

An average of 683 homes have sold in June since 2004, with 938 sales in June 2004.

San Francisco's median sales price in June was $665,000, up a nominal 0.2% compared to June 2010 ($663,500), up 0.8% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in June was down 4.5% on a year-over-year basis, up 14.5% from the month prior (7,998 recorded sales in June '11 versus 8,373 in June ’10 and 6,988 in May '11) as the recorded median sales price fell 7.9% year-over-year, up 1.5% month-over-month.

Last month’s sales were the lowest for the month of June since 2008, when 7,178 homes sold. June sales have ranged from a low of 7,118 in 1993 to a high of 15,735 in 2004, while the average is 10,129. Sales last month fell 21.0 percent below the June average. June is normally a strong month and, among all months, it’s had the highest number of sales most often – seven of the past 23 years.

In June last year – the peak month for 2010 – sales were bolstered by state and federal efforts to stimulate the housing market via homebuyer tax credits. Those credits had expired or been largely depleted by July 2010, when sales plunged 19 percent from the month before and 23 percent from the previous July.

At the extremes, Napa County recorded a 17.5% drop in sales volume (a loss of 25 transactions) on a 15.6% decline in median sales price while Marin recorded a 8.3% increase in volume (up 23 transactions) on a 6.9% decline in median price. San Francisco, at 0.2%, was the only county to record a year-over-year uptick in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area June Home Sales Surge, Median Price Edges Up [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In June: Up 2.1% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 20.1% In May [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

July 13, 2011

Ben Drops The D Word (And Sets The Stage For More Stimulus)

"The possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might reemerge, implying a need for additional policy support," [Federal Reserve Chairman Ben] Bernanke said in prepared testimony before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington today. "The Federal Reserve remains prepared to respond should economic developments indicate that an adjustment of monetary policy would be appropriate."

"At the same time, Bernanke also reiterated that sagging home prices, high unemployment and hard-to-get loans pose long- term obstacles to growth, while leaving open the door to additional monetary stimulus if the economy were to falter."

∙ Fed Prepared With Stimulus If Needed: Bernanke [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (57) | (email story)

July 12, 2011

San Francisco Listed Sales Volume Ticks Up 1% In June (YOY)

The sales volume of listed single-family homes in San Francisco rose 10.5% on a year-over-year basis in June, up 24 sales from 228 in 2010 to 252 in 2011 as the median sales price fell 7 percent, from $802,500 in June 2010 to $746,000 in June 2011.

As we’ve written following year-over-year median price declines of up to 13 percent over the past four months, and down 5 percent in May, expect proponents of representing changes in median as changes in value to continue to find religion (for now).

With respect to condos, listed sales volume fell 8.0 percent on a year-over-year basis in June, down 20 sales from 249 in 2010 to 229 in 2011 as the median sales price fell 1.5 percent from $660,000 to $650,000.

As plugged-in people know listed housing inventory ended June down 16 percent on a year-over-year basis, down 7 percent for single-family homes, down 16 percent for condos.

∙ Real Estate Market Trends Report [rereport.com]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 15% In January Driven By Low-Cost Areas [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume Down 14% In May (YOY) [SocketSite]
∙ Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing "Prices" [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: July 5, 2011 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

The Relative Cost Of Parking In A San Francisco Garage

According to Colliers International’s latest parking rate survey, the average monthly rates in San Francisco commercial garages remained flat over the past year at $375.00. Daily rates in San Francisco hit $26.00, an increase of 4 percent from 2010.

Also according to the survey, Midtown and Downtown Manhattan are the most expensive places in the U.S. to park, with median monthly rates at $541 and $533, respectively. Boston was third at $438 and the national average was $155.22.

London – City was the most expensive place in the world to park, with a $1,084 median price for a monthly spot while London’s West End was close behind at $1,014 per month, followed by Zurich at $822 and Rome at $719. In Asia, Hong Kong and Tokyo both topped New York’s median monthly cost for a parking spot reaching $745 and $744, respectively.

The one that caught us by surprise: Perth, Australia which weighed in with a median monthly cost of $717.

Posted by socketadmin at 5:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

July 5, 2011

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: July 5, 2011

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 5.9 percent over the past two weeks to 1,504 active listings. Over the past five years, listed inventory levels in San Francisco have dropped an average of 1 percent from the middle of June to beginning of July.

Current listed inventory is down 16 percent on a year-over-year basis, up 3 percent versus the average of the past five years, up 16 percent as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is down 7 percent year-over-year to 630 listings while listed condo inventory is down 16 percent to 874.

The percentage of active listings in San Francisco that have undergone at least one price reduction ticked up one point to 37% as the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (92) or seeking a short sale (223) ticked up a point to 21 percent, unchanged on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: June 20, 2011 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

July 1, 2011

Scheduled Auctions Up, But Pre-Foreclosure Activity Ticks Down In SF

It was two months ago that we first reported that despite trending down in California, foreclosure activity has actually been climbing in San Francisco and the biggest gains in activity have been outside of the oft maligned "District 10" which hasn’t represented the majority of San Francisco foreclosure activity for well over two years.

As we pointed out at the time, while 39 percent of San Francisco foreclosures last year were in District 10*, that’s down from 48 percent in 2009, and down from 58 percent in 2008.

In January, the percentage of San Francisco's pre-foreclosure activity concentrated in District 10 was 34 percent, by March it had dropped to 30 percent, down 5 percent in the absolute to 194 properties.

Having ticked up in April, pre-foreclosure activity in San Francisco has since dropped to a six month low with 576 properties in the pipeline, 32 percent of which are in District 10. At the same time, the number of properties scheduled for auction has ticked up from 668 in March to 689 today, 41 percent of which are in District 10 (down from 43 percent in March).

Editor’s Note: In an attempt to match and map two disparate data sets, we include 94124, 94134 and 94112 in "District 10," which results in a slightly larger area than the District as defined by the San Francisco Association of Realtors.

∙ San Francisco Bucks CA Foreclosure Trends, But Not In A Good Way [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Foreclosure Activity Climbs Outside Of District 10 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Association Of Realtors New Neighborhood Map [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

June 28, 2011

April S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Benefits From A "Seaonal" Kick

According to the April 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA increased 1.7% from March ’11 to April '11, down 39.5% from a peak in May 2006 and down 5.5% year-over-year (YOY), still a steady slide from the 18.3% gain reported last May and the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values increased a nominal 0.6% from March to April, down 32.6% from a June 2006 peak as values fell 3.1% year-over-year.

“In a welcome shift from recent months, this month is better than last - April’s numbers beat March,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “However, the seasonally adjusted numbers show that much of the improvement reflects the beginning of the Spring-Summer home buying season. It is much too early to tell if this is a turning point or simply due to some warmer weather.

“Other housing statistics show the same trends. Single-family housing starts were up in May, but still well below their 2010 levels and still very close to their 30-year low. Existing home sales rose in May, but are still about 15% below last year’s pace and about 35% below their 2005 pace. While foreclosures remain a large factor in most parts of the country, the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default indices show a small decline in the pace of new defaults since last November. Other reports confirm that banks have tightened lending standards in the past year making it harder to qualify for a mortgage despite very low interest rates.

“In the monthly details, we saw home prices increase in April over March. The 10-City was up 0.8% and the 20-City rose 0.7%. Only seven cities experienced lower prices compared to 18 in March. However, the seasonally adjusted figures saw less dramatic improvement. The annual rate of change for the 10-City remained the same at -3.1%; whereas the 20-City fell further from -3.8% reported for March to -4.0% for April. For a real recovery we would need to see several months of increasing home prices, large enough to shift the annual momentum to the positive side. In short, better news, but still a lot of questions and a long way to go.”

While prices were nominally down for the bottom third of single-family homes in San Francisco MSA, prices ticked up for the top two thirds in April, the second consecutive month-over-month gain for the top tier in eleven months.

On a year-over-year basis, however, values were relatively unchanged for the bottom two tiers and fell just under one percent for the top.

The bottom third (under $314,659 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.3% from March to April (down 5.4% YOY); the middle third increased 1.1% from March to April (down 7.5% YOY); and the top third (over $579,970 at the time of acquisition) ticked up 1.5% from March to April, down 3.9% on a year-over-year basis.

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA remain at May 2000 levels having fallen 60% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third remains at March 2002 levels having fallen 41% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has returned to just above January 2004 levels having fallen 26% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA increased 2.5% from March ’11 to April '11, down 2.8% year-over-year, but the second consecutive month-over-month uptick in eight months. Condo values remain down 31.3% from a December 2005 peak but have reversed a two month "double dip" and 34.7% drop from peak recorded in March.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: April Seasonal Boost in Home Prices [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Top Tier And Condos Tick Up In March [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco’s Condo "Double Dip" Is (Or Was) Here [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (47) | (email story)

June 23, 2011

U.S. New Home Sales: Up 13.5% Year-Over-Year In May

The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. fell to 319,000 in May, down 2.1 percent from a revised rate of 326,000 in April but up 13.5 percent versus the 281,000 pace recorded in May 2010.

Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in May were estimated to be 30,000 (give or take 8 percent), one thousand lower than in April and the second lowest May on record since 1963.

In the West, the pace of new home sales was up 31.7 percent year-over-year to 83,000, down 3.5 percent versus the month before.

∙ New Residential Sales: May 2011 [census.gov]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales: Down 23% In April Year-Over-Year [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

June 21, 2011

Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Down 15.3% Year-Over-Year In May

The pace of seasonally adjusted existing-home sales in the U.S. fell 3.8 percent from a downwardly revised 5.00 million in April to a 4.81 million pace in May, down 15.3 percent on a year-over-year basis. Keep in mind that an expiring home buyer tax credit likely pulled contracts, but not necessarily closings, forward last May.

The median sale price for existing-homes in May was down 4.6 percent year-over-year to $166,500 as distressed sales accounted for 31 percent of sales volume, down six points from April and even year-over-year. Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 1.0 percent to 3.72 million, a 9.3 month supply, up from 9.2 months in April.

Existing-home sales in the west were unchanged from April to May, down 10.0 percent on a year-over-year basis on a median sales price that’s 12.6 percent lower.

∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Down 12.9% Year-Over-Year In April [SocketSite]
∙ Existing-Home Sales Decline in May [realtor.org]
∙ Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension For Closing (Not Contract) Date [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

June 20, 2011

Flight Of The San Francisco Families (Or At Least Kids)

"New census figures show that despite an intense focus by city and public school officials to curb family flight, San Francisco last year had 5,278 fewer kids than it did in 2000.

The city actually has 3,000 more children under 5 than it did 10 years ago, but has lost more than 8,000 kids older than 5."

∙ S.F. losing kids as parents seek schools, homes [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (77) | (email story)

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: June 20, 2011

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 2.3 percent over the past two weeks to 1,598 active listings. Over the past five years, listed inventory levels in San Francisco have increased an average of 6 percent from the beginning to middle of June.

Current listed inventory is down 8 percent on a year-over-year basis, up 8 percent versus the average of the past five years, up 20 percent as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is down 5 percent year-over-year to 656 listings while listed condo inventory is down 13 percent to 942.

The percentage of active listings in San Francisco that have undergone at least one price reduction held steady at 36% as the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (89) or seeking a short sale (226) ticked up two points to 20 percent, up 9 percent on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: June 6, 2011 [SocketSite]

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June 17, 2011

San Francisco County Employment Holds Steady In May

Preliminary May labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 8.4%, 7.4% and 8.1% respectively, down 0.1 percentage points in San Francisco and San Mateo, down 0.2 percentage points in Marin.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 800 in May (from 38,400 to 37,600) as the labor force contracted by 800 as well (from 450,200 to 449,400) and the number of employed was unchanged at 411,800.

Overall unadjusted California unemployment fell to 11.4% as the labor force contracted by 37,100 workers and the ranks of the unemployed fell by 49,400.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: May 2011 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Drops To 8.5% In April [SocketSite]

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June 16, 2011

What'd You Expect?

"Americans’ views on the economy’s outlook soured in June, showing that unemployment, inflation and the slump in housing are concerning consumers.

The Bloomberg gauge of economic expectations dropped to minus 31 this month, the lowest level since March 2009, from minus 16 in May. The Consumer Comfort Index, issued weekly, improved to minus 44 in the period to June 12, the highest level since mid April, from minus 45.9 as fuel prices kept falling.

"Consumers’ biggest concerns are about jobs and income," said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. "The bottom line is that income is not keeping up with inflation right now. People "are making sacrifices."

∙ Consumer Expectations in U.S. Decrease to Two-Year Low [Bloomberg]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Top Tier And Condos Tick Up In March [SocketSite]

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June 15, 2011

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 20.1% In May

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 20.1% on a year-over-year basis last month (492 recorded sales in May 2011 versus 616 sales in May 2010), up 16.6% as compared to the month prior which was down 1.4% year-over-year.

Keep in mind California’s Homebuyer Tax Credit program created an incentive to push April closings into May last year.

That being said, May sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2009 were 938 (2004), 773 (2005), 691 (2006), 616 (2007), 593 (2008), and 498 (2009), averaging 685 sales per May over those six years. And on average over the past seven years, sales volume has increased 13.8% from April to May.

San Francisco's median sales price in May was $660,000, up 3.7% compared to May 2010 ($636,500), up a nominal 0.8% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in May was down 15.4% on a year-over-year basis, up 2.9% from the month prior (6,988 recorded sales in May '11 versus 8,264 in May ’10 and 6,789 in April '11) as the recorded median sales price fell 9.3% year-over-year, up 3.3% month-over-month.

Last month’s sales were the lowest for the month of May since 2008, when 6,216 homes sold, and the third-lowest on record, behind May 1995 and 2008. May sales have ranged from a low of 6,216 in 2008 to a high of 13,567 in 2004, while the average is 9,693. Last month’s sales fell 27.9 percent below the May average.

Distressed home sales made up about 45 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market last month.

Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 26.9 percent of resales in May. Last month’s figure was down slightly from 27.9 percent in April and up from 26.7 percent a year ago. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 9 percent.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 18.3 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was up from an estimated 17.5 percent in April, 18.2 percent a year earlier, and 12.5 percent two years ago.

At the extremes, Santa Clara County recorded a 23.6% drop in sales volume (a loss of 510 transactions) on a 5.1% decline in median sales price, no counties recorded an increase in sales volume. Solano recorded a 13.7% decline in median price on a 7.7% decline in sales (50 transactions) while San Francisco was the only county to record an uptick in median.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area May Sales: Median Price Up From April; below 2010 [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 1.4% In April [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 20.1% In May [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume Down 14% In May (YOY) [SocketSite]
∙ He's It's Back: California’s $10,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Returns [SocketSite]

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Will The Sili-ness Spread North?

From Bloomberg:

A surge in wealth from technology stock sales and initial public offerings is spilling into the Silicon Valley real estate market as newly rich workers bid up home values in suburban cities south of San Francisco.

The median price of single-family houses sold in Palo Alto, home of Facebook Inc., climbed 20 percent in May from a year earlier to $1.63 million, the biggest jump since 2008, according to preliminary figures from research company DataQuick.

As a plugged-in reader notes:

According to Redfin there were only 63 SFH sales in Palo Alto in the past month. It's completely possible for 10 people to alter a median with that small a sample. In fact it would only take 32 people to basically set the median!

And with respect to the broader market, last month Santa Clara County, of which Palo Alto is part, recorded a 23.6% year-over-year drop in sales volume (a loss of 510 transactions) and a 5.1% decline in median sales price.

∙ Home Prices Exploding in Silicon Valley Amid More Millionaires [Bloomberg]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 20.1% In May [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (53) | (email story)

June 13, 2011

San Francisco Listed Sales Volume Down 14% In May (YOY)

The sales volume of listed single-family homes in San Francisco fell 11.4% on a year-over-year basis in May, down 27 sales from 236 in 2010 to 209 in 2011 as the median sales price fell 5 percent, from $750,000 in May 2010 to $715,000 in May 2011.

As we’ve written following year-over-year median price declines of up to 13 percent over the past four months, expect proponents of representing changes in median as changes in value to quickly find religion.

With respect to condos, listed sales volume fell 15.6 percent on a year-over-year basis in May, down 45 sales from 288 in 2010 to 243 in 2011 as the median sales price increased 8 percent from $646,000 to $695,000.

As plugged-in people know listed housing inventory ended May down 3 percent on a year-over-year basis, down 3 percent for single-family homes, down 9 percent for condos.

∙ Real Estate Market Trends Report [rereport.com]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 15% In January Driven By Low-Cost Areas [SocketSite]
∙ Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing "Prices" [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: June 6, 2011 [SocketSite]

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June 7, 2011

The Chairman Speaks Of A "Frustratingly Slow" Recovery

From Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke this afternoon summarizing the outlook for the U.S. economy:

Although it is moving in the right direction, the economy is still producing at levels well below its potential; consequently, accommodative monetary policies are still needed. Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established.

Specific concerns: "the very high level of long-term unemployment" and "loss of momentum in the labor market," the "depressed state of housing," and "additional headwinds ranging from the effects of the Japanese disaster to global pressures in commodity markets."

∙ The U.S. Economic Outlook [federalreserve.gov]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

June 6, 2011

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: June 6, 2011

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco dropped 1% over the past three weeks to 1,562 active listings, right in line with the average drop of 1% for the same three weeks over the past five years.

Current listed inventory is down 3% on a year-over-year basis, up 11% versus the average of the past five years, and up 36% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is down 3% on a year-over-year basis to 631 listings while listed condo inventory is down 9% to 931.

The percentage of active listings in San Francisco that have undergone at least one price reduction ticked up two points to 36% as the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (88) or seeking a short sale (200) ticked up one point to 18%, up 7% on an absolute basis over the past three weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: May 16, 2011 [SocketSite]

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June 3, 2011

San Francisco Neighborhoods Socio-Economic Profiles And Stats

From the summary of the Planning Department's recently released report profiling demographic, housing, employment and commuting statistics for San Francisco's neighborhoods:

San Francisco’s 2010 population – at 805,330 – has well surpassed its all-time high in the 1950s. Despite some long term shifts in proportional shares, San Francisco’s racial and ethnic composition remains diverse. The City’s Asian population is growing steadily but the number of Black residents continues to drop. San Franciscans of Latin or Hispanic origin are also increasing, although not at rates seen at state or national levels.

San Franciscans are also getting older, with a median age of 38.2 years. There are more children under 5 years old but San Francisco continues to be in the top three of major cities with the fewest children. The numbers of older San Franciscans are growing as well. Family households are increasing but there are also more single-person households.

Our citizens are also better educated: a third of San Franciscans over 25 years old have earned a B.A. diploma and about one in five hold a graduate or professional degree. Median incomes rose, although once adjusted for inflation, are almost unchanged from 2000.

More employed San Franciscans are taking transit to work. Commuting by car has dropped and other travel to work modes such as biking and walking are becoming more popular. Working at home is also increasing. A growing number of San Francisco households are car-free.

A couple of other tidbits: there are now 358,380 housing units in the San Francisco with 22,220 units having been built over the past decade. Thirty-eight (38) percent of units are owner occupied with a median move-in date of 1995 versus 2003 for renters.

Drill down in the report for neighborhood specific statistics and food for thought.

∙ San Francisco Neighborhoods Socio-Economic Profiles [sf-planning.org]

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May 31, 2011

S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Top Tier And Condos Tick Up In March

According to the March 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell a nominal 0.1% from February ’11 to March '11, down 40.6% from a peak in May 2006 and down 5.1% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis, a steady slide from the 18.3% gain reported last May and the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.7% from February to March, down 33.0% from a June 2006 peak as values fell 2.9% year-over-year.

“This month’s report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation. The National Index, the 20-City Composite and 12 MSAs all hit new lows with data reported through March 2011. The National Index fell 4.2% over the first quarter alone, and is down 5.1% compared to its year-ago level. Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Since December 2010, we have found an increasing number of markets posting new lows. In March 2011, 12 cities - Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR) and Tampa - fell to their lowest levels as measured by the current housing cycle. Washington D.C. was the only MSA displaying positive trends with an annual growth rate of +4.3% and a 1.1% increase from its February level.

“The rebound in prices seen in 2009 and 2010 was largely due to the first-time home buyers tax credit. Excluding the results of that policy, there has been no recovery or even stabilization in home prices during or after the recent recession. Further, while last year saw signs of an economic recovery, the most recent data do not point to renewed gains.

While prices continued to fall across the bottom two price tiers, prices for the top third of San Francisco MSA single-family homes increased 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in March, the first gain in ten months. That being said, on a year-over-year basis, values fell across all three price tiers for the fourth time in four months.

The bottom third (under $312,546 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.9% from February to March (down 5.5% YOY); the middle third fell 1.5% from February to March (down 7.5% YOY); and the top third (over $573,577 at the time of acquisition) ticked up 0.7% from February to March, down 3.0% on a year-over-year basis.

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have fallen back to May 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has fallen to below March 2002 levels having fallen 41% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has returned to December 2003 levels having fallen 27% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA increased 2.6% from February ’11 to March '11, down 1.9% year-over-year, but the first month-over-month uptick in seven months. Condo values remain down 33.0% from a December 2005 peak but have reversed a two month "double dip" and 34.7% drop from peak recorded in February.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: National Home Prices Hit New Low in 2011 [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Value Decline Accelerated In Feb [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco’s Condo "Double Dip" Is (Or Was) Here [SocketSite]

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May 24, 2011

U.S. New Home Sales: Down 23% In April Year-Over-Year

The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. ticked up to 323,000 in April, up 7.3 percent from a revised rate of 301,000 in March but still down 23.1 percent versus the 420,000 pace recorded in April 2010.

Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in April were estimated to be 32,000 (give or take 8 percent), the same as in April 2009, the lowest Aprils on record since 1982.

In the West, the pace of new home sales was down 20.8 percent year-over-year to 84,000, up 15.1 percent versus the month before.

∙ New Residential Sales: February 2011 [census.gov]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]

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"San Francisco" Prestige Index Drops 4.3% In First Quarter

The First Republic Prestige Home Index for "San Francisco" homes valued at more than $1 million dropped 4.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2011, down 1.9 percent on a year-over-year basis, down 19.2 percent from a third quarter 2007 peak, and back to between first and second quarter 2004 levels.

As always, keep in mind that the "San Francisco" index includes "a cross-section of luxury homes in Alamo, Atherton, Belvedere, Danville, Healdsburg, Hillsborough, Lafayette, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Mill Valley, Moraga, Orinda, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Portola Valley, Ross, St. Helena, San Francisco, Saratoga, Sonoma, Tiburon and Woodside."

∙ First Republic Prestige Home Index: San Francisco [firstrepublic.com]
∙ "San Francisco" Prestige Index Up 1.5% In Fourth Quarter [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (64) | (email story)

May 20, 2011

San Francisco County Unemployment Drops To 8.5% In April

Preliminary April labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 8.5%, 7.6% and 8.2% respectively, down 0.6 percentage points in San Francisco, 0.4 percentage points in Marin and 0.2 percentage points in San Mateo.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 3,000 in April (from 41,400 to 38,400) as the number of employed fell by 800 (from 412,600 to 411,800) and the labor force contracted by 3,800 (from 454,000 to 450,200).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment fell to 11.7% as the labor force increased by 8,400 workers and the ranks of the unemployed fell by 115,500.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: April 2011 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Holds At 9.1% In March [SocketSite]

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May 19, 2011

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 1.4% In April

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 1.4% on a year-over-year basis last month (422 recorded sales in April 2011 versus 428 sales in April 2010), down 14.7% as compared to the month prior which was down 1.0% year-over-year.

For context, April sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2009 were 841 (2004), 754 (2005), 591 (2006), 568 (2007), 605 (2008), and 402 (2009). And on average over the past seven years, sales volume has increased 3.4% from March to April.

San Francisco's median sales price in April was $655,000, down 5.4% compared to April '10 ($692,500), up a nominal 0.8% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in April was down 3.1% on a year-over-year basis, down 3.7% from the month prior (6,789 recorded sales in April '11 versus 7,003 in April ’10 and 7,051 in March '11) as the recorded median sales price fell 2.7% year-over-year, unchanged month-over-month.

At the extremes, Contra Costa county recorded a 14.4% drop in sales volume (a loss of 236 transactions) on a 5.2% decline in median sales price while Napa recorded a 17.3% increase in volume (an increase of 18 transactions) on a 5.2% decline in median as well. With a 0.2% increase, Marin reocorded the only uptick in median on a 1.6% drop in sales (4 transactions) while Solano recorded a 8.4% decline in median price on a 3.9% sales decline (23 transactions).

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area Home Sales Lose Momentum; Median Price Dips Below 2010 Level [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 1.0% In March [SocketSite]

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Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Down 12.9% Year-Over-Year In April

The pace of seasonally adjusted existing-home sales in the U.S. fell 0.8 percent from a downwardly revised 5.09 million in March to a 5.05 million pace in April, down 12.9 percent on a year-over-year basis.

The median sale price for existing-homes in April was down 5.0 percent year-over-year to $163,700 as distressed sales accounted for 37 percent of sales volume, down three points from March, up four points year-over-year. Total housing inventory at the end of April increased 9.9 percent to 3.87 million, a 9.2 month supply, up from 8.3 months in March.

Existing-home sales in the west slipped 1.6 percent from March to April, down 0.8 percent on a year-over-year basis on a median sales price that’s 6.1 percent lower.

∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Down 6.3% Year-Over-Year In March [SocketSite]
∙ April Existing-Home Sales Ease [realtor.org]

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May 17, 2011

844 Bay Returns As An Apple Remodeled (And If Only It Were 888…)

As we wrote about 844 Bay in August 2008:

In 2004 844 Bay Street (the one with the red door) was a two-bedroom single-family home of two thousand and thirty-five square feet and sold for $1,550,000 ($761 per square foot). Having been completely rebuilt and remodeled, a four thousand and five hundred square foot 844 Bay Street closed escrow this past Friday (8/8/08) with a reported contract price of $4,600,000 ($1,022 per square foot). They were asking $5,249,000.

We assume no plugged-in person would ever make the mistake of confusing that 34% increase in the price per square foot with market appreciation (not that over one thousand a square foot is anything to be sneezed at). We have to note, however, that industry statistics will.

As a plugged-in tipster notes, 844 Bay has returned to the market as a high-end apple listed for $4,800,000 ($1,067 per square) and likely wishing its address were 888.

UPDATE: Well, while we wouldn’t call it a "completely through remodel," we did miss the permit that a plugged-in reader didn’t for the wine cellar addition, bathroom retiling and master suite reconfiguration which was completed in 2009. That being said, we're still calling it an apple but with a minor asterisk.

UPDATE: Forget the asterisk, we’re now pulling our "apple" designation altogether.

While not referenced in the building permit for the latest remodel, the permit fees for which were based on an estimated project cost of "$5,000," our aforementioned reader correctly notes the kitchen was also remodeled, the floor replaced, and a number of other improvements have occurred as well.

The kitchen and floor at 844 Bay in 2008:

The kitchen and floor today:

∙ Listing: 844 Bay Street (3/3.5) - $4,800,000 [MLS]
∙ That Same House In Address Only Sells (And Gooses The $/SQFT) [SocketSite]
∙ The Same House In Address Only: A Contemporary 844 Bay Street [SocketSite]
∙ Rolling Easy Eights Up North (And Here At The High-End) [SocketSite]

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Rolling Easy Eights Up North (And Here At The High-End)

While San Francisco has seen its fair share of lucky number eight sales, especially at the high-end, over the past few months, it’s nothing compared to the impact buyers from mainland China appear to be having on Vancouver.

Sales of detached homes, townhouses and condominiums in metropolitan Vancouver jumped 70 percent in February from January, to 3,097 units from 1,819, and were up 25 percent from a year earlier, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. In March, sales climbed 32 percent from February, to just shy of a record for the month of 4,371 transactions set in 2004. Sales increased by 80 percent from two years ago.

And developers and remodelers take note, "Every new house has two kitchens: a large Western- style one and a small "wok" kitchen with a stove, sink, strong exhaust fan and door to seal off cooking aromas."

∙ 1209 Filbert: LEED Platinum At $1,188 Per Ounce Square Foot [SocketSite]
∙ Chinese Spreading Wealth Make Vancouver Homes Pricier Than NYC [bloomberg.com]

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May 16, 2011

The Economist Calls Another Rather San Francisco Centric Bubble

A few excerpts from the Economist’s current cover story, The New Tech Bubble:

"SOME time after the dotcom boom turned into a spectacular bust in 2000, bumper stickers began appearing in Silicon Valley imploring: "Please God, just one more bubble." That wish has now been granted. Compared with the rest of America, Silicon Valley feels like a boomtown. Corporate chefs are in demand again, office rents are soaring and the pay being offered to talented folk in fashionable fields like data science is reaching Hollywood levels. And no wonder, given the prices now being put on web companies."

"This time is indeed different, though not because the boom-and-bust cycle has miraculously disappeared. It is different because the tech bubble-in-the-making is forming largely out of sight in private markets and has a global dimension that its predecessor lacked."

"Irrational exuberance rarely gives way to rational scepticism quickly. So some bets on start-ups now will pay off. But investors should take a great deal of care when it comes to picking firms to back: they cannot just rely on somebody else paying even more later. And they might want to put another bumper sticker on their cars: "Thanks, God. Now give me the wisdom to sell before it’s too late."

And of course, the wisdom to understand the impact and potential outcomes on San Francisco's real estate market if another bubble is indeed being blown.

∙ Irrational exuberance has returned to the internet world [economist.com]

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San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: May 16, 2011

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 3% over the past two weeks to 1,577 active listings. Listed inventory levels have increased an average of 4% in San Francisco during the same two weeks over the past five years.

Current listed inventory is down 1% on a year-over-year basis, up 11% versus the average of the past five years, and up 37% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 2% on a year-over-year basis to 650 listings while listed condo inventory is down 9% to 927.

On the demand side of the equation, listed sales were up 8 percent in April driven by condos with 422 properties sold as the median sale price fell 8 percent year-over-year for single-family homes, flat for condos.

The percentage of active listings in San Francisco that have undergone at least one price reduction ticked up two points to 34% as the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (90) or seeking a short sale (179) ticked up one point to 17%, up 10% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: May 2, 2011 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume Up 8% In April On Condo Activity [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

May 13, 2011

San Francisco Housing P/E Ratio History And Three Year Drop

To repeat what we first wrote in January 2008:

There’s no doubt Bay Area average rents are up. And while we wouldn’t be surprised to see another 10-15% increase in 2008 (at least for San Francisco proper), keep in mind that the current housing Price-to-Earnings ratio is still well above its long-term average for the San Francisco MSA.

An analysis by Credit Suisse pegged the historical housing P/E ratio for the San Francisco MSA at 24x Earnings (or annual rent) versus a top 52 market average of 16.6x. So yes, we have long paid a premium (compared to most other areas) to buy versus rent in the Bay Area (or as many often comment, "it has always been expensive to buy here").

That being said, the same Credit Suisse analysis pegged the housing P/E ratio for the San Francisco MSA at 42x in 2006. Assuming no change in property values and a 9.4% increase in rents during 2007, the current P/E ratio would be 38.4x. And a return to the historical 24x would either require rents to rise another 60%, property values to fall 37.5%, or a combination of the two.

At the end of 2010 the P/E ratio for the San Francisco MSA weighed in at 27 as rents have risen and values fell. And once again, a return to the historical 24x would either require rents to rise another 12.5%, property values to fall 11.1%, or a combination of the two.

∙ Bay Area Rents Surge, But Housing P/E Ratio Remains Out Of Line [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco’s Housing P/E [SocketSite]

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May 11, 2011

San Francisco Listed Sales Volume Up 8% In April On Condo Activity

The sales volume of listed single-family homes in San Francisco fell 5% on a year-over-year basis in April, down 10 sales from 201 in 2010 to 191 in 2011 as the median sales price fell 8 percent, from $785,000 in April 2010 to $725,000 in April 2011.

As we’ve written following year-over-year median price declines of up to 13 percent over the past three months, expect proponents of representing changes in median as changes in value to quickly find religion (at least for a month or two).

With respect to condos, listed sales volume increased 21 percent on a year-over-year basis in April, up 40 sales from 191 in 2010 to 231 in 2011 as the median sales price remained flat at $670,000.

As plugged-in people know listed housing inventory ended April down 1 percent on a year-over-year basis, up 4 percent for single-family homes, down 3 percent for condos.

NOTE: We’re in the process of restating March results as the ReReport misreported March condo sales in their April report.

∙ Real Estate Matket Trends Report [rereport.com]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 15% In January Driven By Low-Cost Areas [SocketSite]
∙ Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing "Prices" [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: May 2, 2011 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

May 4, 2011

Climate Change Hits Home As The Bay Is Expected To Rise

The San Francisco Planning + Urban Research Association (SPUR) has just released Climate Change Hits Home, a policy paper which "addresses how we should adapt to climate change in the Bay Area, including which tools and strategies will make us resilient to its most severe impacts, including drought, higher temperatures and sea level rise" and recommends "strategies for local and regional agencies to begin minimizing the region’s vulnerabilities to these long-term but potentially catastrophic effects."

It is now widely accepted that the world’s coastlines and coastal cities will be faced with seas that are rising faster than ever experienced. In California, we are likely to experience a sea level rise of about 16 inches by 2050 and about 55 inches by 2100—and much more after that.

These estimates are based on ranges that correspond to several global greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios. In the highest-emission scenario, the range of estimated end-of-century sea level rise is between 43 and 69 inches.

It was two weeks ago that San Francisco’s Planning Commission voted to support the long-term development for the low-lying Treasure Island in the middle of San Francisco's bay.

∙ Climate Change Hits Home [spur.org]
∙ Planning Commission Approves Treasure Island Redevelopment Plan [SocketSite]
∙ The Draft Plan For 550 Acres In The Middle Of San Francisco's Bay [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (95) | (email story)

Tech Job Quote Triptych

"By the end of last year, San Francisco had an estimated 30,700 tech jobs, just shy of the 32,800 around the peak in early 2001...In Silicon Valley, tech positions reached 106,300 in the fourth quarter, nearing the 112,700 crest."

"Jobs in the [tech] industry now account for 16.6 percent of private-sector employment in San Francisco, up from a low of 12.5 percent in September 2003...Tech represents 25.2 percent of employment in Silicon Valley, up from 24 percent in December 2006."

"For the most common type of office buildings in SoMa, average rents climbed 16.4 percent to nearly $33.50 per square foot [last year], as vacancy plummeted from 17.4 percent to 8 percent."

∙ Tech jobs near all-time highs, fuel office-space boom [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (59) | (email story)

May 3, 2011

An Apple Today Keeps The Foreclosure Man Away

As we reported in January:

Purchased for $2,660,000 in April 2006 with 25 percent ($532,000) down but a second added for $182,000 two months later, the fully remodeled Victorian home at 1855 Laguna with a big Viking and Sub-Zero in the kitchen returned to the market a week ago.

Now listed as a short sale for "$2,195,000," three weeks ago a notice of default was filed on the Lower Pacific Heights property with $57,667 past due.

On Friday the sale of the renovated Victorian in Lower Pacific Heights closed escrow with a reported contract price of $2,100,000, 21 percent ($550,000) below its sale price in 2006.

And yes, the property also changed hands in 2002 for $1,550,000, but that was prior to a major remodel, expansion and seismic reinforcement.

∙ 1855 Laguna: Nudged To Market In Lower Pacific Heights [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Bucks CA Foreclosure Trends, But Not In A Good Way [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

May 2, 2011

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: May 2, 2011

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 1.4% over the past two weeks to 1,529 active listings, driven by an uptick in sales activity rather than a slowdown in new listings. Listed inventory levels have increased an average of 5.4% in San Francisco during the same two weeks over the past five years.

Current listed inventory is down 1% on a year-over-year basis, up 12% versus the average of the past five years, and up 45% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 4% on a year-over-year basis to 623 listings while listed condo inventory is down 3% to 906.

The percentage of active listings in San Francisco that have undergone at least one price reduction ticked up two points to 32% as the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (85) or seeking a short sale (159) dropped to 16%, up 27% for bank-owned listings but down 22% for short sales on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: April 11, 2011 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (48) | (email story)

April 26, 2011

S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Value Decline Accelerated In Feb

According to the February 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 2.6% from January ’11 to February '11, down 40.5% from a peak in May 2006 and down 3.5% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis, a steady slide from the 18.3% gain reported last May and the third consecutive month of year-over-year declines.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 1.1% from January to February, down 32.5% from a June 2006 peak as values fell 2.6% year-over-year.

"There is very little, if any, good news about housing. Prices continue to weaken, trends in sales and construction are disappointing." says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. "Ten of the 11 MSAs that recorded index lows in January fell further in February. The one exception, Detroit, is 30% below its 2000 price level. The 20-City Composite is within a hair’s breadth of a double dip. Fourteen MSAs and both Composites have continued to decline month-over-month for more than six consecutive months as of February.

"Atlanta, Cleveland and Las Vegas join Detroit as cities with home prices below their 2000 levels; and Phoenix is barely above its January 2000 level after a new index low. The one positive is Washington D.C. with a positive annual growth rate, +2.7%, and home prices more than 80% over its January 2000 level. Other cities holding on to large gains from 11 years ago include Los Angeles (68.25%), New York (65.19%) and San Diego (55.05%)"

For the seventh time in seven months, prices fell across all three price tiers for San Francisco MSA single-family homes on a month-over-month basis. And for the fourth time in four months, home values fell on a year-over-year basis for San Francisco's top two price tiers.

The bottom third (under $316,384 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.4% from January to February (down 4.6% YOY); the middle third fell 2.5% from January to February (down 6.3% YOY); and the top third (over $580,068 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.1% from January to February, down 2.1% on a year-over-year basis.

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have fallen back to June 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has fallen to below April 2002 levels having fallen 41% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has retreated to November 2003 levels having fallen 27% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 2.1% from January ’11 to February '11 for a 6.0% drop in value year-over-year, down 34.7% from December 2005, and 1.4% below the "double dip" that first occurred in January.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Home Prices Edge Closer to 2009 Lows [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Value Decline Accelerates In January [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco’s Condo "Double Dip" Is (Or Was) Here [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (67) | (email story)

April 20, 2011

Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Down 6.3% Year-Over-Year In March

The pace of seasonally adjusted existing-home sales in the U.S. increased 3.7 percent from an upwardly revised 4.92 million in February to a 5.10 million pace in March, down 6.3 percent on a year-over-year basis.

At the same time, the median sale price for existing-homes fell 5.9 percent year-over-year to $159,600 as distressed sales accounted for 40 percent of the sales volume, up one point from February and up five points year-over-year.

Existing-home sales in the west slipped 0.8 percent from February to March, down 3.1 percent on a year-over-year basis as the median sales price fell 11.2 percent.

∙ Existing-Home Sales Rise in March [realtor.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

Cut? What Cut? (As The S&P Bounces 1.4 Percent)

"Global stocks rallied the most this year and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to an almost three-year high as Intel Corp. forecast higher sales and company results in Europe and Asia beat estimates." (Bloomberg)

∙ Comments: Standard & Poor's Cuts And The S&P Tumbles [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | (email story)

April 18, 2011

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 1.0% In March

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 1.0% on a year-over-year basis last month (495 recorded sales in March 2011 versus 500 sales in March 2010), up 45.6% as compared to the month prior which was up 4.0% year-over-year.

For context, March sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2009 were 749 (2004), 731 (2005), 631 (2006), 640 (2007), 508 (2008), and 332 (2009). And on average over the past seven years, sales volume has increased 41.3% from February to March.

San Francisco's median sales price in March was $650,000, down 3.7% compared to March '10 ($675,000) but up 10.4% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in March was up a nominal 0.2% on a year-over-year basis, up 41.3% from the month prior (7,051 recorded sales in March '11 versus a revised 7,040 in March ’10 and 4,991 in February '11) as the recorded median sales price fell 5.3% on a year-over-year basis, up 6.7% month-over-month.

Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – rose in March to 31.5 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market. Last month’s figure was down from 32.6 percent in February but up from 31.3 percent in March 2010. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 9 percent.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 17.6 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was down from an estimated 20.2 percent in February and 18.1 percent a year earlier, but up from 11.6 percent two years ago.

At the extremes, Solano county recorded a 7.9% drop in sales volume (a loss of 52 transactions) on a 11.6% decline in median sales price while Marin recorded a 10.7% increase in sales volume (24 transactions) on a 4.4% increase in median price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Sales up, Prices Down for Bay Area Housing Market [DQNews]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 1.5% In Feb As Medians Continue To Fall [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Up 4.0% In February [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (33) | (email story)

April 15, 2011

San Francisco County Unemployment Holds At 9.1% In March

Preliminary March labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 9.1%, 8.0% and 8.4% respectively, unchanged in San Francisco, up 0.2 percentage points in Marin and 0.1 percentage points in San Mateo.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco increased by 300 in March (from 41,100 to 41,400) as the number of employed increased by 1,300 (from 411,300 to 412,600) and the labor force increased by 1,600 (from 452,400 to 454,000).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment held around 12.3% as the labor force contracted by 26,200 workers and the ranks of the unemployed increased by 7,600.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: March 2011 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Falls To 9.1% In February [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

April 12, 2011

San Francisco Listed Sales Volume Up 3% In March As Medians Drop

The sales volume of listed single-family homes in San Francisco fell 8% on a year-over-year basis in March, down 17 sales from 220 in 2010 to 203 in 2011 as the median sales price fell 3 percent, from $789,500 in March 2010 to $765,000 in March 2011.

As we wrote last month following a 7 percent decline in median, or the 13 percent drop the month before, expect proponents of representing changes in median as changes in value to quickly find religion (at least for a month or two).

With respect to condos, listed sales volume increased 12.6 percent on a year-over-year basis in March, up 28 sales from 222 in 2010 to 250 in 2011 as the median sales price fell 3 percent from $655,000 to $632,500.

As total listed sales volume in San Francisco increased by 11 units (2.5%) on a year-over-year basis in March, as plugged-in people know listed housing inventory ended the month up 34 units (2%) versus the year before.

UPDATE: The rereport's May reporting for condo sales incorrectly reported a decline in condo sales volume, the results above have been restated to correctly report an increase.

∙ Real Estate Matket Trends Report [rereport.com]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 1.5% In Feb As Medians Continue To Fall [SocketSite]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 15% In January Driven By Low-Cost Areas [SocketSite]
∙ Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing "Prices" [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: March 28, 2011 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

April 11, 2011

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: April 11, 2011

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 5.1% over the past two weeks to 1,551 active listings. Listed inventory levels have increased an average of 0.9% in San Francisco during the same two weeks over the past five years.

Current listed inventory is up 4% on a year-over-year basis, up 17% versus the average of the past five years, and up 64% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. On the demand side of the equation, listed sales were up 1.5 percent in February with 276 properties sold as the median sale price fell 7 percent year-over-year for single-family homes, down 13 percent for condos.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 17% on a year-over-year basis to 662 listings while listed condo inventory is down 4% to 889.

The percentage of active listings in San Francisco that have undergone at least one price reduction ticked down two points to 30% as the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (67) or seeking a short sale (203) dropped to 17%, down 6% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: March 28, 2011 [SocketSite]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 1.5% In Feb As Medians Continue To Fall [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

March 30, 2011

San Francisco’s Condo "Double Dip" Is (Or Was) Here

According to yesterday's S&P/Case-Shiller report, the index for San Francisco MSA condo values has officially "double dipped," falling to 134.59 in January versus a localized low of 135.79 in March 2009 and after having ticked up to 149.49 this past July. The index is now back to between December 2002 and January 2003 values.

At 133.37, the aggregate San Francisco MSA single-family home index remains 13 percent above its localized low of 117.77 in March 2009 while the index for the top third of properties, as defined by original purchase price, is currently 6 percent higher than its March 2009 level of 133.23 versus 13 percent higher last May (150.07).

With respect to a recent uptick in condo sales volume which some might characterize as "hot," keep in mind that it’s being driven in part by a downtick in values, which to those who own the properties might be considered to be more of a "not" (quite so hot).

∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Value Decline Accelerates In January [SocketSite]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 1.5% In Feb As Medians Continue To Fall [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (31) | (email story)

March 29, 2011

S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Value Decline Accelerates In January

According to the January 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.8% from December ’10 to January '11, down 38.9% from a peak in May 2006 and down 1.7% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis, a steady slide from the 18.3% gain reported this past May and the second consecutive YOY decline since October 2009.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 1.0% from December to January, down 31.7% from a June 2006 peak as values fell 2.0% year-over-year.

“Keeping with the trends set in late 2010, January brings us weakening home prices with no real hope in sight for the near future” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. “With this month’s data, we find the same 11 MSAs posting new recent index lows. The 10-City and 20- City Composites continue to decline month-over-month and have posted monthly declines for six consecutive months now.

“These data confirm what we have seen with recent housing starts and sales reports. The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery. At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing. A few months ago we defined a double-dip for home prices as seeing the 10- and 20-City Composites set new post-peak lows. The 10-City Composite is still 2.8% above and the 20-City is 1.1% above their respective April 2009 lows, but both series have moved closer to a confirmed double-dip for six consecutive months. At this point we are not too far off, and that is what many analysts are seeing with sales, starts and inventory data too.

For the sixth time in six months prices fell on a month-over-month basis across all three price tiers for San Francisco MSA single-family homes. And for the third time in three months, home values fell on a year-over-year basis for San Francisco's top two price tiers.

The bottom third (under $327,921 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.8% from December to January (down 2.3% YOY); the middle third fell 2.3% from December to January (down 3.1% YOY); and the top third (over $602,297 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.2% from December to January, down 1.5% on a year-over-year basis.

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have fallen back to June 2000 levels having fallen 58% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has fallen to just above April 2002 levels having fallen 39% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has retreated to just above January 2004 levels having fallen 26% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.9% from December ’10 to January '11 for a 6.5% drop in value year-over-year (down 33.3% from December 2005).

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Home Prices Off to a Dismal Start in 2011 [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Home Values Dropped In December [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite] 

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (35) | (email story)

March 28, 2011

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: March 28, 2011

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 2.3% over the past two weeks to 1,476 active listings. Listed inventory levels have increased an average of 4.7% in San Francisco during the same two weeks over the past five years.

Current listed inventory is closing in on last year's levels, up 2% on a year-over-year basis, up 13% versus the average of the past five years, and up 50% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. On the demand side of the equation, listed sales were up 1.5 percent in February with 276 properties sold as the median sale price fell 7 percent year-over-year for single-family homes, down 13 percent for condos.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 15% on a year-over-year basis to 632 homes while listed condo inventory is down 5% to 844 listings.

The percentage of active listings in San Francisco that have undergone at least one price reduction ticked up two points to 32% as the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (73) or seeking a short sale (215) sits at 20%, down 1% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: March 14, 2011 [SocketSite]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 1.5% In Feb As Medians Continue To Fall [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

March 25, 2011

San Francisco County Unemployment Falls To 9.1% In February

Preliminary February labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 9.1%, 7.8% and 8.3% respectively, down 0.4 percentage points in San Francisco and San Mateo, down 0.1 percentage points in Marin.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 2,000 in February (from 43,100 to 41,100) as the number of employed increased by 1,200 (from 410,100 to 411,300) and the labor force contracted by 900 (from 453,300 to 452,400).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment fell by 0.4 percentage points to 12.2% as the labor force contracted by 60,900 workers and the ranks of the unemployed fell by 83,400.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: February 2011 (Preliminary) [EDD]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

March 24, 2011

It's Two Years Later And Time To Adopt San Francisco’s Housing Plan

It’s been almost two years since we first plugged our readers in to San Francisco’s Housing Element Report. As we wrote at the time, San Francisco's big picture (click to enlarge) housing pipeline was as so:

∙ 156 projects with 6,510 housing units are currently under construction
∙ 168 projects representing 2,850 units have received a building permit
∙ 316 projects representing 4,480 units have applied for a building permit
∙ 92 projects representing 6,200 units have been approved by the Planning Department
∙ 130 projects representing 34,750 units have filed for Planning Department approval

In total, 54,790 new housing units were under construction, on the boards or under consideration to be built in San Francisco over the long-term.

The challenge, an estimated 31,000 new units, "60% of which should be suitable for housing for the extremely low, very low, low and moderate income households," will be needed in San Francisco to meet projected demand in the nearer-term.

The evening at 6pm San Francisco’s Planning Commission will review and vote on the adoption of the report’s objectives and policies, a report which is a treasure trove of San Francisco facts and figures for the real estate obsessed.

Oh, and did somebody say density?

∙ San Francisco’s Housing Pipeline And 2009 Housing Element Report [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Housing Element: Data and Needs Analysis | Objectives and Policies
∙ The Next Era In San Francisco’s Development: It’s All About Density [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

March 23, 2011

U.S. New Home Sales: Down 28% In February Year-Over-Year

The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. fell to 250,000 in February, down 16.9 percent from a revised rate of 301,000 in January and down 28.0 percent versus the 347,000 pace recorded in February 2010.

Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in February were estimated to be 19,000 (give or take 8 percent), the lowest February on record going back to 1963.

In the West, the pace of new home sales fell 34.1 percent on a year-over-year basis to 58,000, down 14.7 percent versus the month before.

∙ New Residential Sales: February 2011 [census.gov]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales: Down 18.6% Year-Over-Year In January [SocketSite]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

March 22, 2011

MacroMarkets' Survey Now Says...Nearly Half Expect Double Dip

The latest MacroMarkets home price survey aimed at forecasting the next five years for housing prices in the U.S. was released today with almost half of thier "economists and experts" surveyed now expecting a double-dip in national values to new post-crash lows which are less than one percent away.

In December, only 15 percent of the same survey group was projecting a double dip in values which not only speaks to a shift in expectations, but the ability of MacroMarkets’ survey group to forecast the market.

∙ MacroMarkets Home Price Expectations Survey [macromarkets.com]
∙ Expectations Surge for Housing Double Dip [macromarkets.com]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Home Values Dropped In December [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (31) | (email story)

March 17, 2011

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Up 4.0% In February

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco increased 4.0% on a year-over-year basis last month (340 recorded sales in February 2011 versus 327 sales in February 2010), up 2.1% as compared to the month prior which was up 7.1% year-over-year.

For context, February sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2009 were 537 (2004), 526 (2005), 429 (2006), 375 (2007), 431 (2008), and 272 (2009). And on average over the past seven years, sales volume has increased 12.7% from January to February.

San Francisco's median sales price in February was $589,000, down 6.1% compared to February ’10 ($627,500) and down a nominal 0.2% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in February was down 0.9% on a year-over-year basis, up 0.5% from the month prior (4,991 recorded sales in February '11 versus a revised 5,035 in February ’10 and 4,966 in January '11) as the recorded median sales price fell 4.7% on a year-over-year basis and a nominal 0.2% month-over-month.

Distressed sales – the combination of sales of foreclosed homes and “short sales” – accounted for just over half of the Bay Area’s resale market last month.

Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – made up 32.6 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market in February. That was down from 35.0 percent in January and 36.3 percent a year ago. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 9 percent.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 20.3 percent of Bay Area resales last month, a peak for the current real estate cycle. Last month’s short sale figure was up from an estimated 19.7 percent in January, 17.8 percent a year earlier, and 12.6 percent two years ago.

Distressed listings and foreclosure activity in San Francisco continue to climb.

At the extremes, Alameda county recorded a 11.9% drop in sales volume (a loss of 121 transactions) on a 6.4% decline in median sales price while Marin recorded a 15.0% increase in sales volume (23 transactions) on a 19.1% decrease in median price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area Housing Market Stuck In Neutral; Investors, Cash Buyers Active [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Up 7.1% YOY In January [SocketSite]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 1.5% In Feb As Medians Continue To Fall [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: March 14, 2011 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Foreclosure Activity Climbs Outside Of District 10 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

Initial Jobless Claims Fall 16,000 While Extended Claims Rise 54,000

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 16,000 last week to 385,000 while the number of people collecting emergency and extended payments increased by 54,000 to 4.36 million for the week ended February 26, down from 4.5 million two weeks before.

∙ Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Fell 16,000 Last Week to 385,000 [Bloomberg]
∙ Unemployment: New/Continuing Claims Fall, Extended Payments Rise [SocketSite]

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March 15, 2011

San Francisco Foreclosure Activity Climbs Outside Of District 10

It was two months ago that SocketSite first reported that despite trending down in California, foreclosure activity has actually been climbing in San Francisco and the biggest gains in activity have been outside of the oft maligned "District 10" which hasn’t represented the majority of San Francisco foreclosure activity for well over two years.

As we pointed out at the time, while 39 percent of San Francisco foreclosures last year were in District 10, that’s down from 48 percent in 2009, and down from 58 percent in 2008. And in January, the percentage of San Francisco's pre-foreclosure activity concentrated in District 10 was 34 percent.

Over the past two months the percentage of San Francisco pre-foreclosure activity concentrated in District 10 has dropped to 30 percent, down 5 percent in the absolute to 194 properties. At the same time, pre-foreclosure activity outside of District 10 has increased 8 percent to 656 properties.

∙ San Francisco Bucks CA Foreclosure Trends, But Not In A Good Way [SocketSite]

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March 14, 2011

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: March 14, 2011

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 2.0% over the past two weeks to 1,443 active listings. Over the past five years listed inventory levels have increased an average of 6.5% in San Francisco during the same two weeks.

Current listed inventory is up 6% on a year-over-year basis, up 15% versus the average of the past five years, up 57% as compared to 2006. On the demand side of the equation, listed sales were up 1.5 percent in February with 276 properties sold as the median sale price fell 7 percent year-over-year for single-family homes, down 13 percent for condos.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 20% on a year-over-year basis to 610 homes while listed condo inventory is actually down 6% to 833.

The percentage of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction remains at 30% as the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (77) or seeking a short sale (214) fell to 20%, up 1% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: February 28, 2011 [SocketSite]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 1.5% In Feb As Medians Continue To Fall [SocketSite]

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March 11, 2011

SF Listed Sales Volume Up 1.5% In Feb As Medians Continue To Fall

The sales volume of listed single-family homes in San Francisco fell 6% on a year-over-year basis in February, down 7 sales from 123 in 2010 to 116 in 2011. At the same time, the median sales price for single-family homes fell 7 percent, from $695,000 in February 2010 to $645,000 in February 2011.

As we wrote last month following a 13 percent decline in median, expect proponents of representing changes in median as changes in value to quickly find religion (at least for a month or two).

With respect to condos, listed sales volume increased 7 percent on a year-over-year basis in February, up 11 sales from 149 in 2010 to 160 in 2011 as the median sales price fell 13 percent from $649,000 to $565,000.

And while total listed sales volume in San Francisco increased by 4 units (1.5%) on a year-over-year basis in February, listed housing inventory ended the month up 187 units (15%) versus the year before.

∙ Real Estate Matket Trends Report [rereport.com]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 15% In January Driven By Low-Cost Areas [SocketSite]
∙ Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing "Prices" [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: February 28, 2011 [SocketSite]

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March 9, 2011

Purchase Activity In The U.S. Is Up (WOW) And Down (YOY)

With average 30-year mortgage rates up by 9 basis points over the past week to 4.93%, mortgage application volume for purchases in the U.S. increased 14.3% versus the week before to the highest level of activity since May 2010, but remains 14.3% lower on a year-over-year (YOY) basis according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association survey.

With respect to the big week-over-week (WOW) jump, keep in mind that the previous week "did not include a holiday adjustment for Presidents' Day."

∙ Mortgage Bankers Association Applications Survey: 3/09/11 [mortgagebankers.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (44) | (email story)

March 4, 2011

A Year Late And A Few Thousand Dollars Short For CA Taxpayers

According to the Franchise Tax Board, the California statewide median income for all personal income tax returns fell 5.1 percent from 2008 to 2009 ($34,079) while the median income listed on joint returns fell 5.7 percent from 2008 to 2009 ($65,025).

Marin County had the highest median income for joint returns at $108,465, a decrease of 8.6 percent from 2008. San Mateo County ranked second with $95,176, Santa Clara County ranked third with $94,209, Contra Costa County ranked fourth with $85,942, and Alameda County ranked fifth with $83,886.

San Francisco county ranked eighth in the state with a median income for joint returns of $74,348, down 5.1 percent from 2008.

∙ California Median Incomes by County: 2008 | 2009 [ca.gov]

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March 3, 2011

Unemployment: New/Continuing Claims Fall, Extended Payments Rise

While new applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. decreased by 20,000 to 368,000 for the week ending February 26 (the lowest level since May 2008), and the number of people collecting unemployment benefits fell by 59,000 to 3.77 million ending February 19, the number of people who are now collecting emergency and extended payments increased by 57,000 to 4.5 million for the week ending February 12.

∙ Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall to 368,000, Lowest Since 2008 [Bloomberg]

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March 2, 2011

"San Francisco" Prestige Index Up 1.5% In Fourth Quarter

The First Republic Prestige Home Index for "San Francisco" homes valued at more than $1 million ticked up 1.5 percent from the third to fourth quarter of 2010, up 3.6 percent on a year-over-year basis, down 15.6 percent from a third quarter 2007 peak, and between fourth quarter 2004 and first quarter 2005 levels.

As always, keep in mind that the "San Francisco" index includes "a cross-section of luxury homes in Alamo, Atherton, Belvedere, Danville, Healdsburg, Hillsborough, Lafayette, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Mill Valley, Moraga, Orinda, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Portola Valley, Ross, St. Helena, San Francisco, Saratoga, Sonoma, Tiburon and Woodside."

∙ First Republic Prestige Home Index: San Francisco [firstrepublic.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

February 28, 2011

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: February 28, 2011

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 1.1% over the past two weeks to 1,415 active listings. Over the past five years listed inventory levels have increased an average of 5.9% in San Francisco during the same two weeks.

Current listed inventory is up 15% on a year-over-year basis, up 19% versus the average of the past five years, up 55% as compared to 2006. On the demand side of the equation, listed sales were up 15 percent in January with 275 properties sold.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 30% on a year-over-year basis to 593 homes while listed condo inventory is up just 6% to 822.

The percentage of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction dropped one point to 30% as the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (85) or seeking a short sale (202) did as well to 21%, down 1% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: February 14, 2011 [SocketSite]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 15% In January Driven By Low-Cost Areas [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

February 24, 2011

U.S. New Home Sales: Down 18.6% Year-Over-Year In January

The pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. fell 12.6 percent from a revised annual rate of 325,000 in December 2010 to 284,000 last month, down 18.6 percent versus the 349,000 rate recorded in January 2010.

Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in January 2011 were estimated to be 19,000 (give or take 8 percent), the lowest January on record going back to 1963.

In the West, the pace of new home sales fell 15.4 percent on a year-over-year basis to 66,000, down 36.5 percent versus December 2010.

∙ U.S. New Home Sales: Down 7.6% In December (YOY), 14.2% in 2010 [SocketSite]
∙ New Residential Sales: December 2010 [census.gov]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

February 23, 2011

Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Picks Up As Median Price Falls

The pace of seasonally adjusted existing-home sales in the U.S. increased 2.7 percent from a revised 5.22 million in December to 5.36 million in January, up 5.3 percent on a year-over-year basis.

At the same time, the median sale price for existing-homes fell 3.7 percent on a year-over-year basis to $158,800 as distressed sales accounted for 37 percent of the sales volume, up one point from December and down one point from January 2010.

Existing-home sales in the west increased 7.9 percent from December to January. On a year-over-year basis sales were up 7.0 percent as the median sales price fell 5.7 percent.

∙ Existing-Home Sales Rise Again in January [realtor.org]
∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Up 12.3%, Down 2.9% Year-Over-Year [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

February 22, 2011

S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Home Values Dropped In December

According to the December 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.0% from November ’10 to December '10, down 37.8% from a peak in May 2006 and down a nominal 0.4% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis, a steady slide from the 18.3% gain reported this past May and the first recorded YOY decline since October 2009.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.9% from November to December, down 30.9% from a June 2006 peak as values fell 1.2% year-over-year.

"We ended 2010 with a weak report. The National Index is down 4.1% from the fourth quarter of 2009 and 18 of 20 cities are down over the last 12 months. Both monthly Composites and the National Index are moving closer to their 2009 troughs. The National Index is within a percentage point of the low it set in the first quarter of 2009. Despite improvements in the overall economy, housing continues to drift lower and weaker." says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's.

"Unlike the 2006 to 2009 period when all cities saw prices move together, we see some differing stories around the country. California is doing better with gains from their low points in Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco. At the other end is the Sun Belt – Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix and Tampa. All four made new lows in December. Also seeing renewed weakness are some cities that were among the last to reach their peaks including Atlanta, Charlotte, Portland OR and Seattle, where news lows were also seen. Dallas, which peaked late, has so far stayed above its low marked in February 2009."

For the fifth time in five months prices fell on a month-over-month basis across all three price tiers for San Francisco MSA single-family homes. And for the second time in two months, home values fell on a year-over-year basis for San Francisco's top two price tiers.

The bottom third (under $336,356 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.2% from November to December (down 2.3% YOY); the middle third fell 1.3% from November to December (down 3.1% YOY); and the top third (over $616,298 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.9% from November to December, down 1.2% on a year-over-year basis.

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have fallen back to July 2000 levels having fallen 58% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back to May 2002 levels having fallen 38% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has retreated back below February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 2.1% from November ’10 to December '10 for a 6.5% drop in value year-over-year (down 32.1% from December 2005).

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Case-Shiller: National Home Prices Are Close to the 2009Q1 Trough [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P: San Francisco Home Values Fell Across The Board In November [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite] 

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February 17, 2011

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Up 7.1% YOY In January

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco increased 7.1% on a year-over-year basis last month (333 recorded sales in January 2011 versus 311 sales in January 2010), down 32.2% as compared to the month prior (which was down 1.6% on a year-over-year basis) and versus a 15% year-over-year increase in listed sales volume.

For context, January sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2009 were 558 (2004), 469 (2005), 369 (2006), 402 (2007), 293 (2008), and 229 (2009). On average, from 2005 to 2010 sales volume has declined 34.7% from December to January.

San Francisco's median sales price in January was $590,250, down 6.2% compared to January ’10 ($629,000) and down 4.3% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in January was up 2.3% on a year-over-year basis, down 30.8% from the month prior (4,966 recorded sales in January '11 versus 4,853 in January ’10 and 7,178 in December '10) as the recorded median sales price dropped 3.4% on a year-over-year basis and 9.9% month-over-month.

Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – rose in January to 34.7 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market – the highest since last February. Foreclosure resales have risen or stayed the same for six consecutive months. January’s figure was up from 30.1 percent in December but down from 36.3 percent in January 2010. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 9 percent.

Last month 29.8 percent of all sales were for $500,000 or more, down from a revised 34.3 percent in December and the lowest since 27.0 percent in April 2009. The all-time low was January 2009, when 22.7 percent of sales crossed that threshold. Over the past decade, a monthly average of 44.9 percent of homes sold for $500,000 or more.

At the extremes, Solano county recorded a 3.0% drop in sales volume (a loss of 14 transactions) on a 9.5% decline in median sales price while San Mateo recorded a 4.8% increase in sales volume (17 transactions) on a 12.9% decrease in median price for the second month in a row.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Slow 2011 Start for Bay Area Housing Market [DQNews]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 15% In January Driven By Low-Cost Areas [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 1.6% YOY In December [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In January: Up 35.8% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 17.8% YOY In November [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Bucks CA Foreclosure Trends, But Not In A Good Way [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

February 16, 2011

CoreLogic Claims NAR Overstates Sales And Understates 2010 Decline

The summary of CoreLogic’s February 2011 U.S. Housing and Mortgage Trends report:

In 2010, home sales declined to the lowest level since the collapse in the housing market. The CoreLogic research indicates that the [National Association of Realtors (NAR)] measure of existing home sales is overstated by 15% to 20%.

The rapid price declines are being driven by huge supply/demand imbalances and the rising impact of distressed sales. If current trends persist, home prices are expected to be down – over 10% year-over-year by Spring.

The weakness in the refinance market is heavily driven by the lack of equity, but tighter credit underwriting will keep some borrowers on the sidelines.

According to CoreLogic, U.S. home sales fell 12 percent in 2010 (versus the 5 percent figure reported by NAR) and the renewed downturn in home prices is being driven by "weak sales, an excess supply of unsold homes and [a] larger impact from distressed sales."

∙ U.S. Housing and Mortgage Trends – February 2011 [corelogic.com]
∙ S&P: San Francisco Home Values Fell Across The Board In November [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (71) | (email story)

February 15, 2011

Easing, Not Eliminating, The Option ARM Collateral Damage

"This was the year thousands of U.S. homeowners with option adjustable-rate mortgages were supposed to default as their payments spiked. Low interest rates and a surge of early delinquencies mean the numbers probably won’t be as bad as forecast, softening the blow to a housing market where prices have resumed falling."

∙ Option ARM Time Bomb Blows Early, Easing Damage to U.S. Housing [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (53) | (email story)

February 14, 2011

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: February 14, 2011

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 4.3% over the past two weeks to 1,399 active listings. Over the past five years listed inventory levels have increased an average of 5.5% in San Francisco during the same two weeks.

Current listed inventory is up 25% on a year-over-year basis, up 22% versus the average of the past five years, up 71% as compared to 2006. On the demand side of the equation, listed sales were up 15 percent in January with 275 properties sold.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 38% on a year-over-year basis to 576 homes while listed condo inventory is up 18% to 823.

The percentage of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction dropped three points to 31% while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (84) or seeking a short sale (206) held at 21%, up 3% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: January 31, 2011 [SocketSite]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite]
∙ SF Listed Sales Volume Up 15% In January Driven By Low-Cost Areas [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (55) | (email story)

February 10, 2011

Restored Richard Neutra Flat Returns As A Rather Targeted Rental

Withdrawn from the market a year ago when asking $3,950,000 for the restored Richard Neutra duplex at 2056-2058 Jefferson, it’s a plugged-in reader that catches the upper unit now listed for lease on Craigslist asking $8,500 a month.

Yes, the rental includes access to that swanky 800 square foot roof deck "with panoramic views of the Golden Gate Bridge and the Bay" (but no longer the Palace of Fine Arts).

We'll also note the reference of proximity to the St. Francis Yacht Club and an option to lease the flat fully furnished (although we might suggest modernizing the bedroom decor).

∙ Restored Richard Neutra Modern In The Marina: 2056-2058 Jefferson [SocketSite]
∙ Modernist Gem near St. Francis Yacht Club with Expansive Bay View [craigslist]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

SF Listed Sales Volume Up 15% In January Driven By Low-Cost Areas

The sales volume of listed single-family homes in San Francisco increased 20% on a year-over-year basis in January, up 24 sales from 121 in 2010 to 145 in 2011.

At the same time, the median sales price for single-family homes fell 13 percent, from $705,000 in 2010 to $615,000 in 2011 as January’s increase in sales volume was driven by an increase in relatively low-cost areas, up 31 sales in Districts 10 and 2 combined.

Expect proponents of representing changes in median as changes in value to quickly find religion (at least for a month or two).

With respect to condos, listed sales volume increased 9 percent on a year-over-year basis in January, up 11 sales from 119 in 2010 to 130 in 2011 as the median sales price increased 5 percent from $620,000 to $653,500. The increase in condo sales volume was driven by an 8 unit (63%) increase in District 6 sales.

As total listed sales volume in San Francisco increased by 35 units (15%) in January, listed housing inventory ended the month up 318 units (31%) versus the year before.

∙ Early January Listed Sales Results For San Francisco: Down 34% [SocketSite]
∙ Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing "Prices" [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: January 31, 2011 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (44) | (email story)

February 1, 2011

Dow Closes Above 12,000 For First Time Since June 2008

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the day at 12,040.16, its first close above the 12,000 mark since June 2008 while the S&P 500 closed the day at 1,307.59, its first close over 1,300 since August 2008.

Market volatility has fallen 15 percent since October 2010, down 37 percent as compared to this past June as measured by the VIX.

∙ Dow Crosses 11,000 As Market Volatility (A.K.A. Skittishness) Wanes [SocketSite]
∙ S&P 500 Back To Even For The Year To Date As Skittishness Remains [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

January 31, 2011

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: January 31, 2011

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 6.9% over the past two weeks to 1,341 active listings. Over the past five years listed inventory levels have increased an average of 5.5% in San Francisco during the same two weeks.

Current listed inventory is up 31% on a year-over-year basis, up 24% versus the average of the past five years, up 67% as compared to 2006. At the same time, listed sales last month appear to have been just over 400, down a few percentage points year-over-year.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 41% on a year-over-year basis to 544 while listed condo inventory is up 25% to 797.

The percentage of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction dropped two points to 34% while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (90) or seeking a short sale (192) dropped a point to 21%, down 10% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

Think "new" listings for previously unsold properties (with respect to the percentage of reductions) and holiday moratoriums (with respect to bank-owned activity).

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco Housing Inventory: Starting 2011 At A Six-Year High [SocketSite]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (66) | (email story)

January 28, 2011

1855 Laguna: Nudged To Market In Lower Pacific Heights

Purchased for $2,660,000 in April 2006 with 25 percent ($532,000) down but a second added for $182,000 two months later, the fully remodeled Victorian home at 1855 Laguna with a big Viking and Sub-Zero in the kitchen returned to the market a week ago.

Now listed as a short sale for "$2,195,000," three weeks ago a notice of default was filed on the Lower Pacific Heights property with $57,667 past due.

∙ Listing: 1855 Laguna (4/3.5) – "$2,195,000" (short sale) [MLS]
∙ San Francisco Bucks CA Foreclosure Trends, But Not In A Good Way [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

January 26, 2011

U.S. New Home Sales: Down 7.6% In December (YOY), 14.2% in 2010

The pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. jumped 17.5 percent from a revised 280,000 annual rate in November 2010 to 329,000 in December but remains 7.6 percent below the 356,000 rate in December 2009.

An estimated 321,000 new single-family homes were sold throughout the U.S. in 2010, down 14.2 percent from an estimated 375,000 in 2009 and the lowest level in 47 years.

UPDATE: A few points we shouldn't have missed, preliminary U.S. sales (versus pace) in December 2010 were estimated to be 22,000 (give or take 8 percent), the lowest December on record since 1966.

In the West, December sales were up 40 percent from 5,000 in 2009 to 7,000 (give or take 14 percent) in 2010 while total sales for the year fell 16 percent from 87,000 in 2009 to 73,000 in 2010.

∙ New Residential Sales: December 2010 [census.gov]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

January 25, 2011

S&P: San Francisco Home Values Fell Across The Board In November

According to the November 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.2% from October ’10 to November '10, down 37.2% from a peak in May 2006 and down to a negligible 0.4% year-over-year (YOY) gain, a steady slide from the 18.3% gain reported this past May and down from 2.2% in October.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.8% from October to November, down 30.3% from a June 2006 peak as values fell 0.4% year-over-year.

"With these numbers more analysts will be calling for a double-dip in home prices. Let’s take a moment to define a double-dip as seeing the 10- and 20-City Composites set new post-peak lows. The series are now only 4.8% and 3.3% above their April 2009 lows, suggesting that a double-dip could be confirmed before Spring. Certainly eight cities setting new lows, and with the only positive news concentrated in southern California and Washington DC, the data point to weakness in home prices," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's.

"With an annual growth rate of +3.5% in November, Washington DC was the strongest market, but still well below the +7.7% annual rate of growth seen in May 2010. The only city with a gain in November was San Diego, up a scant 0.1%. While San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco are still ahead from November 2009, their annual rates are shrinking in recent months."

For the fourth time in four months prices fell on a month-over-month basis across all three price tiers for San Francisco MSA single-family homes. And for the first time in a year, home values fell on a year-over-year basis for San Francisco's top two price tiers.

The bottom third (under $340,128 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.6% from October to November (up 1.6% YOY); the middle third fell 1.1% from October to November (down 1.9% YOY); and the top third (over $620,966 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.6% from October to November, down 0.6% on a year-over-year basis.

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have fallen back below September 2000 levels having fallen 57% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back below June 2002 levels having fallen 37% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has retreated back below March 2004 levels having fallen 24% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.8% from October ’10 to November '10 for a 4.5% drop in value year-over-year (down 30.6% from December 2005).

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening as Eight Cities Reach New Lows [Standard & Poor's]
∙ San Francisco (MSA) Home Value Slide Accelerates In October [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (64) | (email story)

January 21, 2011

San Francisco County Unemployment Falls To 9.2% In December

Preliminary December labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 9.2%, 7.9% and 8.3% respectively, down 0.4 percentage points in San Francisco and San Mateo, down 0.3 percentage points in Marin.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 2,400 in December (from 43,800 to 41,400) as the number of employed decreased by 1,900 (from 411,100 to 409,200) and the labor force contracted by 4,300 (from 454,900 to 450,600).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points to 12.3% as the labor force contracted by 102,300 workers while the ranks of the unemployed fell by 33,400.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: December 2010 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Ticks Up To 9.6% In November [SocketSite]

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January 20, 2011

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 1.6% YOY In December

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 1.6% on a year-over-year basis last month (491 recorded sales in December ’10 versus 499 sales in December ‘09), up 19.8% as compared to the month prior which was down 17.8% on a year-over-year basis.

For context, December sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 646 (2004), 612 (2005), 589 (2006), 445 (2007), and 366 (2008). And on average, from 2004 to 2009 sales volume has declined 1.6% from November to December.

San Francisco's median sales price in December was $617,000, down 5.1% compared to December ’09 ($650,000) and down 9.3% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in December was down 8.3% on a year-over-year basis, up 17.5% from the month prior (7,178 recorded sales in December '10 versus 7,828 in December ’09 and 6,111 in November '10) as the recorded median sales price dropped 1.3% both year-over-year and month-over-month.

Last month foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – rose for the fifth consecutive month to 30.8 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market – the highest since last March. December’s figure was up from 28.6 percent in November but down from 32.0 percent in December 2009. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 8 percent.

At the extremes, Marin county recorded a 14.7% drop in sales volume (a loss of 39 transactions) on a 5.7% decline in median sales price while Napa recorded a 4.7% increase in sales volume (134 transactions) on a 12.9% decrease in median price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area Housing Ends Year With Many Looking but Not Buying [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 17.8% YOY In November [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In December: Up 36.3% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Bucks CA Foreclosure Trends, But Not In A Good Way [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (37) | (email story)

Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Up 12.3%, Down 2.9% Year-Over-Year

The pace of seasonally adjusted existing-home sales in the U.S. jumped 12.3 percent from a revised 4.7 million in November to 5.28 million in December, down 2.9 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Months of existing housing supply (inventory over sales) fell 15 percent from 9.5 months in November to 8.1 months in December, it remains 13 percent higher on a year-over-year basis with 3.56 million units currently on the market.

The pace of existing-home sales in the West increased 16.7 percent from November to December, down 1.5 percent year-over-year.

∙ December Existing-Home Sales Jump [realtor.org]
∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Up 5.6%, Down 27.9% Year-Over-Year [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

January 19, 2011

San Francisco Bucks CA Foreclosure Trends, But Not In A Good Way

Perhaps not as dangerous as some bad LSD, but there’s some bad data being passed around San Francisco by a brokerage or two with respect to market distress. Or more accurately, the reports appear to be missing the context which would allow one to understand what’s actually happening in the market.

As quoted by a reader, 37 percent of listed distressed sales last year were in "D10 (Bayview/Hunters)." Here’s the missing context: while 39 percent of San Francisco foreclosures last year were in District 10, that’s down from 48 percent in 2009, and down from 58 percent in 2008. And the current percentage of pre-foreclosure activity in San Francisco that’s concentrated in District 10? That would be 34 percent.

That’s right, what was mainly a District 10 problem just two years ago is now mostly not. And as an aside, the percentage of District 10 foreclosures in Bayview and Hunters Point has slipped from 44 percent in 2008 to 33 percent last year as foreclosure activity moved west. But never mind that, it’s much easier to dismiss the data as irrelevant to the rest of San Francisco when framed as "37 percent in Bayview and Hunters Point."

At the same time, while recorded foreclosure activity in California actually declined from 2009 to 2010, it increased in San Francisco as the number of foreclosed upon properties quadrupled from just over a hundred in 2007 to over 450 in 2010, up 28 percent from 2009. And the number of cancelled auctions in San Francisco - which often simply represent a delaying of the inevitable - has increased by a factor of eight over the past three years, from just over a hundred in 2007 to just under nine hundred in 2010.

In terms of where foreclosure activity currently stands in the second week of January (and despite both official and unofficial winter and holiday moratoriums), there are currently over 600 San Francisco properties in pre-foreclosure (again, 34 percent of which are in District 10) and almost 700 properties with auctions currently scheduled, keep in mind that roughly 66 percent of scheduled auctions ended up being cancelled last year.

∙ San Francisco Housing Inventory: Starting 2011 At A Six-Year High [SocketSite]

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January 18, 2011

San Francisco Housing Inventory: Starting 2011 At A Six-Year High

The model we’ve used to track listed housing inventory over the past five years suggested we’d see a 17.4 percent increase in listed San Francisco inventory over the past two weeks. The actual change? Up 17.4 percent to 1,255 units and up 31.1 percent on a year-over-year basis (up 61.5 percent versus 2006) for a six-year start of the year high.

At the same time, listed sales this past December appear to have been just over 400, down a few percentage points from 2009.

Keep in mind that January inventory increases tend to be driven by listings that were withdrawn from the market in November and December and are now returning to the market "anew." Expect inventory levels to continue to climb over the next four months.

The inventory of listed single-family homes for sale in San Francisco (527) is currently up 46 percent on a year-over-year basis while listed condo inventory (728) is up 22 percent.

The percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (101) or seeking a short sale (212) has ticked down to 25 percent but is up 8 percent on an absolute basis. And while the percentage of all active listings in San Francisco that have “officially” undergone at least one price reduction according to the MLS has dipped from forty-three to thirty-nine, said drop is being driven in large part by new listings for returning properties.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ Listed San Francisco Housing Inventory End Of Year (2010) Wrap-Up [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (67) | (email story)

January 10, 2011

Jackson Square For 34 38 Percent Less In 2011

Plugged-in people knew the short sale had been approved and the list price reduced to $480,000, a sale at which would have been a 34 percent drop in value for the Jackson Square condo at 733 Front Street over the past three years.

This past Friday the sale of 733 Front Street #407 closed escrow with a reported contract of $450,000, 38 percent below its September 2007 purchase price of $730,000.

Don’t forget those invitations to the house warming, paying attention to those "bitter" bears three years ago just saved you $280,000 and buys an awful lot of champagne.

∙ Not New But Now "Approved" And Shorter Still For 733 Front #407 [SocketSite]
∙ Now With Even More Red At 733 Front Street On Jackson Square [SocketSite]
∙ 733 Front Street: A SocketSite Forum Inquiry (And Answer) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (36) | (email story)

January 6, 2011

One Rincon Hill '08's Appear To Have Slipped More (Not Less) In 2010

As we wrote this past June:

Hours after our noting the bank-owned listing for 425 1st Street #3908 at $695,000, the sales office at One Rincon Hill reduced the list price for 425 1st Street #4308 from $780,000 to $749,000 ($992 per square foot).

Today, the sale of 425 1st Street #4408 closed escrow with a reported contract price of $690,000 ($914 per square foot), the 755 square foot view one-bedroom had most recently been listed by the sales office for $785,000.

Considering the sale office sold #3908 for $855,000 in June 2008 ($1,132 per square), and taking into account a five floor higher premium, we’ll call it a 20-25 percent drop in value for #4408 over the past two years.

And the argument that $695,000 for #3908 is "cheap" simply because #4308 is listed for $780,000 $749,000? Not so strong.

The sale of One Rincon Hill #4308 ended up selling this past July with a reported contract price of $687,000 ($909 per square) while the sale of #3908 ended up closing escrow this past September with a recorded contract price of $660,000 ($874 per square foot four floors below), a 23 percent drop in value from June 2008.

Seven days ago the sales office sold 425 1st Street #4608 for a reported contract price of $680,000 ($901 per square), 1 percent under the contract prices of #4308 and #4408 six and seven months ago respectively.

∙ Interesting Indeed As One Rincon Hill #4308 Falls Out Of Escrow [SocketSite]
∙ Additional '08 Stack (And Year) Perspective From One Rincon Hill [SocketSite]
∙ The First Listed Foreclosure At 425 First (One Rincon Hill) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

January 3, 2011

Listed San Francisco Housing Inventory End Of Year (2010) Wrap-Up

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos and TICs in San Francisco fell 24% over the past three weeks driven primarily withdrawn or deactivated listings during the holidays. On average, inventory has fallen 23.3% during the same three weeks over the past four years.

Current listed inventory remains up 34% on a year-over-year basis, up 19% versus the average of the past four years, up 36% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007 while listed sales this past November (325) were off by 17% year-over-year.

The inventory of listed single-family homes for sale in San Francisco (460) is up 51% on a year-over-year basis while listed condo inventory (609) is up 24%.

Forty-three (43) percent of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (104) or seeking a short sale (187) has ticked up to 27%, up 2% on an absolute basis over the past three weeks.

Expect listed inventory in San Francisco to steadily climb over the next four months as withdrawn unsold listings return to the MLS along with the new.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ Listed San Francisco Inventory Update: December 13, 2010 [SocketSite]

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December 28, 2010

San Francisco (MSA) Home Value Slide Accelerates In October

According to the October 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.9% from September ’10 to October '10, down 36.4% from a peak in May 2006 and down to a 2.2% year-over-year (YOY) gain, a steady slide from the 18.3% gain reported this past May and down from 5.5% in September.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 1.4% from September to October, down 29.7% from a June 2006 peak as the year-over-year gain slipped to 0.2%.

The double-dip is almost here, as six cities set new lows for the period since the 2006 peaks. There is no good news in October’s report. Home prices across the country continue to fall.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's.

“The trends we have seen over the past few months have not changed. The tax incentives are over and the national economy remained lackluster in October, the month covered by these data. Existing homes sales and housing starts have been reported for both October and November, and neither is giving any sense of optimism.

On a year-over-year basis, sales are down more than 25% and the months’ supply of unsold homes is about 50% above where it was during the same months of last year. Housing starts are still hovering near 30-year lows. While delinquency rates might have seen some recent improvement, it is only on a relative basis. They are still well above their historic averages, in both the prime and sub-prime markets.

For the second time in three months prices fell on a month-over-month basis across all three price tiers for San Francisco MSA single-family homes.

The bottom third (under $342,388 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.4% from September to October (up 4.6% YOY); the middle third fell 2.2% from September to October (up 0.4% YOY); and the top third (over $624,623 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.3% from September to October for a negligible 0.1% YOY gain.

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have fallen back to September 2000 levels having fallen 57% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back to June 2002 levels having fallen 36% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has retreated to March 2004 levels having fallen 24% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 3.4% from September ’10 to October '10 for 3.4% drop in value year-over-year (down 30.0% from December 2005).

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ U.S. Home Prices Weaken Further as Six Cities Make New Lows [Standard & Poor's]
∙ September Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Slide Continues [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]
∙ Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension For Closing (Not Contract) Date [SocketSite]
∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Up 5.6%, Down 27.9% Year-Over-Year [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (45) | (email story)

December 22, 2010

Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Up 5.6%, Down 27.9% Year-Over-Year

The pace of seasonally adjusted existing-home sales in the U.S. increased 5.6 percent from October to November but remains down 27.9 percent on a year-over-year basis for the fifth slowest pace on record (4.68 million).

And while months of existing housing supply (inventory over sales) fell 9.5 percent from 10.5 months in October to 9.5 months in November, it remains 46.2 percent higher on a year-over-year basis with 3.71 million units currently on the market.

The pace of existing-home sales in the West increased 11.7 percent from October to November, down 19 percent year-over-year.

∙ Existing-Home Sales Resume Uptrend with Stable Prices [realtor.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

December 20, 2010

Ten Of Thirty-Nine Already Owned By The Bank (And Eight Just Short)

While more listings were withdrawn from the MLS unsold than were listed anew last week, of the thirty-nine (39) properties that hit the market ten (10) were flagged as bank owned including properties South of Market, in the Sunset, and on Potrero and Russian Hill(s).

Another eight (8) of the new thirty-nine (39) are seeking short sales.

∙ Two Floors Below But Asking 16 Percent Less Year-Over-Year [SocketSite]
∙ Listing: 1554 27th Avenue (4/4) 2,423 sqft - $829,900 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 1470 De Haro (3/2) 1,535 sqft - $589,900 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 1438 Filbert #402 (1/1) 844 sqft - $599,000 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

San Francisco County Unemployment Ticks Up To 9.6% In November

Preliminary November labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 9.6%, 8.2% and 8.7% respectively, up 0.3 percentage points in San Francisco and 0.2 percentage points in both Marin and San Mateo.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco increased by 1,300 in November (from 42,500 to 43,800) as the number of employed decreased by 1,600 (from 412,700 to 411,100) and the labor force contracted by 300 (from 455,200 to 454,900).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment increased by 0.5 percentage points to 12.4% as the labor force increased by 14,000 workers and the ranks of the unemployed increased by 84,400.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: November 2010 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Falls To 9.3% In October [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

December 16, 2010

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 17.8% YOY In November

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 17.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (410 recorded sales in November ’10 versus 499 sales in November ‘09), down 6.0% as compared to the month prior which was down 21.2% on a year-over-year basis.

For context, November sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 682 (2004), 658 (2005), 568 (2006), 479 (2007), and 340 (2008). And on average, from 2004 to 2009 sales volume has declined 7.4% from October to November.

San Francisco's median sales price in November was $680,000, up 4.6% compared to November ’09 ($650,000) and up 4.3% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in November fell 11.2% on a year-over-year basis, down a nominal 0.2% from the month prior (6,111 recorded sales in November '10 versus 6,878 in November ’09 and 6,122 in October '10) as the recorded median sales price once again fell by 1.8% on a year-over-year basis, down 0.8% as compared to the month prior.

At the extremes, San Francisco recorded the greatest Bay Area drop in sales volume last month (a loss of 89 transactions) while Napa recorded no change in sales volume but a 21.1% decrease in median sales price on 104 transactions.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area November Home Sales, Median Price Down [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 21.2% YOY In October [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 12.3% In August [SocketSite]
∙ He's It's Back: California’s $10,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Returns [SocketSite]
∙ FHA: Not Out Of The Woods But Feeling A Little Less Lost [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (106) | (email story)

December 13, 2010

Listed San Francisco Inventory Update: December 13, 2010

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 14.1% over the past two weeks to 1,408 active listings. On average, inventory has fallen 14.2% during the same two weeks over the past four years as end of year listing activity slows to a crawl and unsold listings are withdrawn from the MLS.

Current listed inventory remains up 25% on a year-over-year basis, up 20% versus the average of the past four years, and up 41% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007 while listed sales this past November (325) were off by 17% year-over-year.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 41% on a year-over-year basis at 577 while listed condo inventory is up 15% at 831.

Almost half (46%) of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (100) or seeking a short sale (185) has ticked up to 20%, down 7% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite’s Listed San Francisco Inventory Report: 11/29/10 [SocketSite]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite]

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November 30, 2010

September Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Slide Continues

According to the September 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.9% from August ’10 to September '10, down 35.2% from a peak in May 2006 and up 5.5% year-over-year (YOY) versus a 14.3% YOY gain reported in June, an 11.2% gain reported in July, and 7.8% in August.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.5% from August to September, down 28.7% from a June 2006 peak as the year-over-year gain slipped to 1.6%.

For the second time in seven months prices fell on a month-over-month basis for the bottom two price tiers for San Francisco MSA single-family homes.

The bottom third (under $345,614 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.6% from August to September (up 7.1% YOY); the middle third fell 0.5% from August to September (up 4.6% YOY); and the top third (over $631,319 at the time of acquisition) was unchanged (up 2.1% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA returned to October 2000 levels having fallen 56% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back to March 2003 levels having fallen 35% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third remains just below April 2004 levels having fallen 23% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.5% from August ’10 to September '10 for a nominal 0.3% gain on a year-over-year basis (down 27.6% from December 2005).

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Broad-based Declines in Home Prices in the 3rd Quarter of 2010 [Standard & Poor's]
∙ Case-Shiller Says...San Francisco MSA Falls Across All Tiers In August [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (69) | (email story)

November 29, 2010

SocketSite’s Listed San Francisco Inventory Report: 11/29/10

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 10.6% over the past two weeks to 1,640 active listings. On average, inventory has fallen 9.2% during the same three weeks over the past four years as listing activity around Thanksgiving slows to a crawl (34 new listings last week).

Current listed inventory remains up 30% on a year-over-year basis, up 20% versus the average of the past four years, and up 38% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007 while listed sales this past October (372) were off by 17% year-over-year.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 44% on a year-over-year basis at 666 while listed condo inventory is up 21% at 974.

Almost half (47%) of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (114) or seeking a short sale (192) is up to 19%, up 4% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco's Seasonal Listed Housing Slide Underway [SocketSite]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

November 24, 2010

Something To Be Thankful For: U.S. Unemployment Claims Drop

New unemployment claims in the U.S. declined by 34,000 last week to 407,000 for the week ending November 20, the lowest level since July 2008. The number of unemployed continuing to receive regular jobless benefits in the U.S. dropped by 142,000 to 4.18 million the week prior. And the ranks of those “now collecting emergency and extended payments decreased by about 262,000 to 4.66 million” in the week ended November 6.

The U.S. unemployment rate is, however, holding at 9.6% (versus 9.3% in San Francisco).

∙ U.S. Jobless Claims Decline to Lowest Since July 2008 [Bloomberg]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Falls To 9.3% In October [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

November 19, 2010

San Francisco County Unemployment Falls To 9.3% In October

Preliminary October labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 9.3%, 8.0% and 8.5% respectively, down 0.3 percentage points in San Francisco, down 0.4 percentage points in Marin, and down 0.6 percentage points in San Mateo.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco decreased by 1,600 in October (from 44,100 to 42,500) as the number of employed increased by 500 (from 412,200 to 412,700) and the labor force contracted by 1,100 (from 456,300 to 455,200).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points to 12.0% as the labor force contracted by 74,200 workers and the ranks of the unemployed fell by 60,300.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: October 2010 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Holds At 9.7% In September [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

November 18, 2010

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 21.2% YOY In October

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 21.2% on a year-over-year basis last month (436 recorded sales in October ’10 versus 553 sales in October ‘09), down 1.4% as compared to the month prior which was down 17.5% on a year-over-year basis and versus a 12.3% drop in August.

For context, October sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 720 (2004), 670 (2005), 573 (2006), 526 (2007), and 414 (2008). And on average, from 2004 to 2009 sales volume increased 0.3% from September to October.

San Francisco's median sales price in October was $652,000, down 5.6% compared to October ’09 ($690,824) but up 5.2% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in October was down 22.8% on a year-over-year basis, down 3.3% from the month prior (6,122 recorded sales in October '10 versus 7,933 in October ’09 and 6,334 in September '10) as the recorded median sales price fell 1.8% on a year-over-year basis, down 3.0% as compared to the month prior.

Last month foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – rose for the third consecutive month to 29.5 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market. That was up from 27.5 percent in September but down from 31.3 percent in October 2009. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 8 percent.

Government-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 25.6 percent of all home purchase mortgages in October, up from 24.1 percent in September and 25.2 percent in October 2009.

At the extremes, Sonoma recorded a 29.8% drop in sales volume (a loss of 164 transactions) on a 6.6% decrease in median sales price in October while Napa recorded a 24.8% decrease in sales volume (a loss of 30 transactions) on a 14.7% decrease in median.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area Home Sales Fall Sharply; Median Price Dips Below Last Year [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 17.5% In September [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 12.3% In August [SocketSite]
∙ He's It's Back: California’s $10,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Returns [SocketSite]
∙ FHA: Not Out Of The Woods But Feeling A Little Less Lost [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (26) | (email story)

November 17, 2010

U.S. Housing Starts Take A Big Hit

Driven by a 44 percent drop in multifamily units, housing starts in the U.S. fell to a 519,000 annual rate in October, down 12 percent from September and the slowest pace since the record low of 477,000 reached in April 2009. Single-family home starts fell 1.1 percent.

Record-low mortgage rates have failed to boost demand, highlighting the limits of Federal Reserve monetary policy in undoing the damage from the bursting of the housing bubble. Companies like D.R. Horton Inc. are bracing for the worst in early 2011 as unemployment hovers near 10 percent and the lifting of foreclosure moratoriums swells the supply of houses.

Now about that Base Case scenario...

∙ Housing Starts in U.S. Drop 12%, More Than Forecast [Bloomberg]
∙ FHA: Not Out Of The Woods Yet Feeling A Little Less Lost [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

November 15, 2010

San Francisco's Seasonal Listed Housing Slide Underway

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 7.6% over the past three weeks to 1,834 active listings. On average, inventory has fallen 5.7% during the same three weeks over the past four years.

Current listed inventory remains up 36% on a year-over-year basis, up 21% versus the average of the past four years, and up 37% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. Listed sales in October (372) appear to be off by 17% on a year-over-year basis.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco remains up 55% on a year-over-year basis to 764 while listed condo inventory is up 25% to 1,070.

Almost 47% of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (106) or seeking a short sale (189) is up to 16%, up 4% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks to a new decade-plus high.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Hits New Half-Decade High [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (36) | (email story)

November 10, 2010

Redfin Reports: San Francisco Sales Volume Down 27.3% In October

As we wrote in August:

With recorded sales volume falling an average of 7.9 percent from June to July over the past six years, a seasonal decline is to be expected, but a 22.4 percent drop in sales from June (563) to July (437) this year according to Redfin might raise an eyebrow or two.

And perhaps even more telling, sales volume appears to have fallen 24.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in July with sales of single-family homes falling 20.3 percent (from 281 to 224) and condos falling 29.7 percent (from 290 to 204).

It’s the first year-over-year decline in terms of sales volume in San Francisco since August 2009 and suggests tax credits have been (temporarily) stimulating the San Francisco market more than some might have thought.

Redfin subsequently reported year-over-year San Francisco sales volume declines of 22.5 percent in August and 29.9 percent in September. And according to their latest report, October sales volume in San Francisco (423) was down 27.3% on a year-over-year basis, down 20.5 percent for single-family homes.

As plugged-in people know, listed housing inventory in San Francisco hit a new half-decade high (1,985) at the end of October, up 42 percent on a year-over-year basis.

∙ Redfin Reports: San Francisco Sales Volume Falls 24.9% YOY In July [SocketSite]
∙ Bay Area Real Estate Enters the Twilight Zone [Redfin]
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Hits New Half-Decade High [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (31) | (email story)

November 4, 2010

Back On Edinburgh An Apple Is Picked And Sales Stats Are Compared

The sale of 458 Edinburgh in the Excelsior closed escrow on 10/19 with a reported contract price of $528,000 ($422 per square foot). Call it 6 percent "over asking!" but 31 percent under its comp setting price of $770,000 ($616 per square foot) in 2005 for the single-family home with a "refinished kitchen, granite counter tops, [and] redwood cabinets."

The median price per square foot for single-family homes in zip code 94112 is currently running around $407 per square foot, down 8 percent from 2009, down 28 percent from a 2006 peak, and back to just above 2003 levels.

In terms of sales volume, in 2009 the zip code saw 446 sales last year and a peak of 463 in 2004, so far in 2010 the closed sales count is 271 which should end the year just under the count of 303 in 2002.

∙ Back On Edinburgh (And In The Excelsior) [SocketSite]

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October 27, 2010

Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Flat QOQ (Up 0.6% YOY)

Bay Area Notices of Default (NODs) fell 30.5% on a year-over-year basis in the third quarter of 2010, down 20.4% in San Francisco proper (from 607 to 483). At the same time NOD activity in San Francisco rose 12.1% from the second quarter of 2010 to the third (versus a 3.1% gain from the second to third quarter the year prior).

On average, homes foreclosed on last quarter took 8.7 months to wind their way through the formal foreclosure process, beginning with an NOD. That's down from 9.1 months for the prior quarter but up from 7.0 months a year earlier. The increase from last year could reflect, among other things, lender backlogs and extra time needed to pursue possible loan modifications and short sales.

Actual Bay Area foreclosures in the third quarter fell 9.4% on a year-over-year basis (from 7,462 to 6,757) with Contra Costa (down 7.0% to 1,909), Alameda (down 20.2% to 1,404) and Solano (up 2.0% to 1,045) leading the way with respect to volume.

Third quarter recorded foreclosures in San Francisco totaled 180, up a nominal 0.6% on a year-over-year basis, even with the second quarter, and versus a 31.6% gain from the second to third quarter in 2009.

∙ California Mortgage Defaults Rise in Third Quarter [DQNews]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

October 26, 2010

That's A Negative, Ghost Rider...

"The Treasury sold $10 billion of five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities at a negative yield for the first time at a U.S. debt auction as investors bet the Federal Reserve will be successful in sparking inflation."

∙ Treasury Draws Negative Yield for First Time During TIPS Sale [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

Case-Shiller Says...San Francisco MSA Falls Across All Tiers In August

According to the August 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.3% from July ’10 to August '10, down 34.6% from a peak in May 2006 and up 7.8% year-over-year (YOY) versus a 11.2% YOY gain reported in July and 14.3% in June.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell a nominal 0.1% from July to August and remain down 28.3% from a peak in June 2006 as the year-over-year gain slipped to 2.6%.

"A disappointing report. Home prices broadly declined in August. Seventeen of the 20 cities and both Composites saw a weakening in year-over-year figures, as compared to July, indicating that the housing market continues to bounce along the recent lows,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Over the last four months both the 10- and 20-City Composites show slowing growth, after sustaining consistent gains since their April 2009 troughs.

"The month-over-month growth rates tell the same story. Fifteen of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites saw a decline in the month of August as compared to July levels. The 10- and 20-City Composites fell 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Indeed, the housing market appears to have stabilized at new lows. At this time, it does not seem that any of the markets are hanging on to the temporary momentum caused by the homebuyers’ tax credits."

Prices fell across all three price tiers on a month-over-month basis for single-family homes in the San Francisco MSA for the first time in six months as year-over-year gains also slid.

The bottom third (under $345,613 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.4% from July to August (up 10.3% YOY); the middle third fell 1.2% from July to August (up 6.3% YOY); and the top third (over $628,381 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.5% from July to August (up 2.1% YOY versus 2.8% in July).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA returned to October 2000 levels having fallen 56% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back to just below April 2003 levels having fallen 34% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is back to just below April 2004 levels having fallen 23% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.5% from July ’10 to August '10 and to a 2.0% gain on a year-over-year basis (down 26.4% from a high in December 2005).

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Prices Increases Slow Down in August [Standard & Poor's]
∙ July Case-Shiller: "San Francisco's" Top Tier Slips For Second Month [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (32) | (email story)

October 25, 2010

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Hits New Half-Decade High

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 2.5% over the past two weeks to a new half-decade high of 1,985 active listings. On average, inventory has fallen 3.0% during the same two weeks over the past four years.

Current listed inventory is up 42% on a year-over-year basis, up 23% versus the average of the past four years, and up 34% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. Once again, listed sales in September (342) were down 13% on a year-over-year basis.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 55% on a year-over-year basis to 801 while listed condo inventory is up 28% to 1,184.

Almost 40% of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (91) or seeking a short sale (177) remains at 14%, up 1% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's Listed San Francisco Inventory Update: October 25, 2010 [SocketSite]
∙ A New High For Listed San Francisco Housing Supply [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (34) | (email story)

October 22, 2010

Bull-ish On Edgewood And New Listings From Which To Choose...

We can't finger the original architect but Henrik Bull gets the credit for remodeling 227 Edgewood in the Sixties and Eighties. And while we might suggest a touchup in the Tens, we're still digging his Scandinavian flair.

In terms of other San Francisco properties from which to choose this week, while new listings are typically on the decline at this time of the year (having fallen an average of 8% on a week-over-week basis for this week in October over the past four years), 193 new listings hit the MLS over the past week, up 33% week-over-week and 47% year-over-year.

∙ Listing: 227 Edgewood Avenue (4/4) - $2,599,000 [227edgewood.com] [MLS]
∙ Henrik H Bull [wikipedia.org]

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San Francisco County Unemployment Holds At 9.7% In September

Preliminary September labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 9.7%, 8.4% and 9.1% respectively, unchanged in all three counties.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 300 in September (from 44,400 to 44,100) as the number of employed fell by 400 (from 412,600 to 412,200) and the labor force contracted by 600 (from 456,900 to 456,300).

Overall unadjusted California unemployment fell by 0.2 percentage points to 12.2% as the labor force contracted by 26,300 workers and the ranks of the unemployed fell by 33,700.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: September 2010 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Holds At 9.7 Percent In August [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

October 21, 2010

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 17.5% In September

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 17.5% on a year-over-year basis last month (442 recorded sales in September ’10 versus 536 sales in September ‘09) according to DataQuick, down 2% as compared to the month prior which was down 12.3% on a year-over-year basis.

For context, September sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 763 (2004), 665 (2005), 567 (2006), 469 (2007), and 458 (2008). And on average, from 2004 to 2009 sales volume fell 9.8% from August to September.

San Francisco's median sales price in September was $620,000, down 4.6% compared to September ’09 ($650,000) and down 5.0% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in September was down 19.6% on a year-over-year basis, down 5.4% from the month prior (6,334 recorded sales in September '10 versus 7,879 in September ’09 and 6,698 in August '10) as the recorded median sales price rose 8.2% on a year-over-year basis, up 2.6% as compared to the month prior.

Last month foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – rose to 27.9 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market. That was up from 26.1 percent in August but down from 32.3 percent in September 2009. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 8 percent.

Government-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 25.1 percent of all home purchase mortgages in September, up from 24.8 percent in August and 24.9 percent in September 2009.

At the extremes, Alameda recorded a 27.1% drop in sales volume (a loss of 455 transactions) on a 3.6% increase in median sales price in September while Napa recorded a 3.5% increase in sales volume (a gain of 4 transactions) on a 6.4% decrease in median.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area September Home Sales Second-Lowest in 19 years [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 12.3% In August [SocketSite]
∙ He's It's Back: California’s $10,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Returns [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

October 14, 2010

Rates Hit Four Decade Lows And Purchase Activity...Declines

With average 30-year mortgage rates falling by 17 basis points over the past two weeks to a four decade low of 4.21%, mortgage application volume for purchases in the U.S. fell 8.3% last week and is running 37.1% lower on a year-over-year basis (versus 32.4% lower two weeks ago) according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association survey.

∙ Purchase Mortgage Volume Down 32.4% YOY And Refi Activity Slips [SocketSite]
∙ Mortgage Bankers Association Applications Survey: 10/08/10 [mortgagebankers.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

October 13, 2010

San Francisco Sales Tax Revenues Down 9 Up 8% Year-Over-Year

While the stock market runs sales tax revenue in San Francisco has tripped, down 9 percent on a year-over-year basis (down 8 percent over the three months ended in September).

On a year-over-year basis, sales tax revenues have fallen more than 10 percent in seven of nine Bay Area counties with San Mateo and Santa Clara counties both dropping more than 14 percent.

UPDATE: As a plugged-in reader notes, apparently the San Francisco Business Times pulled the wrong data from the California Board of Equalization.

The Business Time’s headline has been changed from "Sales tax figures suggest Bay Area economy lagging again" to "Sales tax figures suggest Bay Area recovery continues."

And while previously reporting a 9 percent year-over-year drop in San Francisco sales tax revenue, they now report an 8 percent increase (up 5 percent across the Bay Area).

∙ Dow Crosses 11,000 As Market Volatility (A.K.A. Skittishness) Wanes [SocketSite]
∙ Sales tax figures suggest Bay Area recovery continues [Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

October 12, 2010

SocketSite's Listed San Francisco Inventory Update: October 12, 2010

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell a nominal 0.5% over the past two weeks. On average, inventory has increased 2.0% during the same two weeks over the past four years and declines sharply over the next two months on sales and withdrawn listings.

Current listed inventory is up 33% on a year-over-year basis, up 18% versus the average of the past four years, and up 26% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. At the same time, listed sales in September (342) were down 13% on a year-over-year basis but versus a 30% year-over-year drop in listed sales in August (362).

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 44% on a year-over-year basis to 775 while listed condo inventory is up 26% to 1,161.

37% of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction and the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (88) or seeking a short sale (178) is 14%, down 2% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ A New High For Listed San Francisco Housing Supply [SocketSite]

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October 8, 2010

Dow Crosses 11,000 As Market Volatility (A.K.A. Skittishness) Wanes

Crossing the 11,000 mark for the first time in five months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the day at 11,006.48, up 10 percent over the past three months.

The S&P 500 closed the day at 1,165.15, up 7 percent over the past four months, a little over 9 percent year-over-year.

And while market volatility is down with the VIX having fallen 28 percent over the past four months, Goldman has started waving flags with respect to the economy over the next two to three quarters.

∙ Dow Ticks Back Over 10,000: Bull Rally Or Bear Trap? [SocketSite]
∙ S&P 500 Back To Even For The Year To Date As Skittishness Remains [SocketSite]
∙ Goldman Says U.S. Economy Will Be ‘Fairly Bad’ or ‘Very Bad’ [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

October 4, 2010

Pending U.S. Home Sales Rise 4.3% From July But Continue YOY Slide

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index rose 4.3 percent from July (79.4) to August (82.3). On a year-over-year basis, however, the index is now down 20.1 percent versus 19.1 percent in July, 18.6 percent in June and 15.9 percent in May.

∙ Pending Home Sales Show Another Gain [realtor.org]
∙ Pending U.S. Home Sales Rise From June But Slide Year-Over-Year [SocketSite]
∙ U.S. Pending Home Sales Down 18.6 Percent Year-Over-Year In June [SocketSite]
∙ Pending Home Sales Plummet And The Markets React [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

September 29, 2010

Purchase Mortgage Volume Down 32.4% YOY And Refi Activity Slips

With average 30-year mortgage rates falling by 12 basis points over the past three weeks, mortgage application volume for purchases in the U.S. is running 32.4% lower on a year-over-year basis (versus 38.8% lower three weeks ago) while refinancing activity fell 1.6% last week, a fourth straight weekly decline according to the latest MBA survey.

∙ Purchase Mortgage Volume Remains Down 38.8% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ Mortgage Bankers Association Applications Survey: 9/24/10 [mortgagebankers.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

September 28, 2010

July Case-Shiller: "San Francisco's" Top Tier Slips For Second Month

According to the July 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA rose 0.5% from June ’10 to July '10, down 34.4% from a peak in May 2006 and up 11.2% year-over-year (YOY) versus a 14.3% YOY gain reported in June.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values rose 0.8% from June to July for a fourth straight monthly gain but remain down 28.3% from a peak in June 2006 as the year-over-year gain slipped to 4.1%.

The year-over-year growth rates for 16 of the cities and both Composites weakened in July compared to June. While we could still see some residual support from the homebuyers’ tax credit, which covers purchases closing through September 30th, anyone looking for home price to return to the lofty 2005-2006 might be disappointed. Judging from the recent behavior of the housing market, stable prices seem more likely.

In the monthly data, 12 of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites were up in July over June; but the monthly rates also seem to be weakening. The next few months may give us an idea of the true strength of the housing market, as the temporary economic stimuli will have ended. Housing starts, sales and inventory data reported for August do not show signs of a robust market, and foreclosures continue.

Prices were up across the bottom two price tiers on a month-over-month basis but declined for the top third of San Francisco MSA single-family homes for the second month in a row.

The bottom third (under $342,906 at the time of acquisition) gained 2.2% from June to July (up 15.1% YOY); the middle third gained 1.2% from June to July (up 9.6% YOY); and the top third (over $621,684 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.4% from June to July (up 2.8% YOY versus 5.1% in June).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA returned to October 2000 levels having fallen 55% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back to just below May 2003 levels having fallen 34% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is back to just below April 2004 levels having fallen 22% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA rose 1.7% from June ’10 to July '10, falling to a 2.2% gain on a year-over-year basis (down 25.9% from an December 2005 high).

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Prices Remain Stable Around Recent Lows [Standard & Poor's]
∙ June Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Tips Atop As YOY Gains Retreat [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (153) | (email story)

September 27, 2010

A New High For Listed San Francisco Housing Supply

Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 8.2% over the past two weeks establishing a new five year high. On average, inventory has increased 5.1% during the same two weeks over the past four years.

Current listed inventory is up 30% on a year-over-year basis, up 20% versus the average of the past four years, and up 30% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. At the same time, listed sales in August (362) were down nearly 30% on a year-over-year basis, the slowest August in San Francisco in well over a decade and versus a 13% year-over-year drop in listed sales in July (385).

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 35% on a year-over-year basis to a five year high of 786 while listed condo inventory is up 26% to 1,159.

34% of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction and the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (92) or seeking a short sale (179) is 14%, up 6% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ San Francisco's Listed Inventory Spikes As Listed Sales Slide [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Supply Hits New High [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (88) | (email story)

September 23, 2010

Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Up 7.6% To Second Lowest On Record

Following a 27.2 percent plunge from June to July, the pace of U.S. existing home sales increased 7.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.13 million units in August, down 19.0 percent on a year-over-year basis and the second lowest pace on record.

The percentage of distressed home sales increased to 34 percent (up from 32 percent in July and 31 percent in August 2009) while listed housing inventory dropped 0.6 percent to 3.98 million, an 11.6-month supply versus 12.5 months in July (a metric on which seasonality can wreak havoc).

∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Plunges 27.2% In July (25.5% YOY) [SocketSite]
∙ Existing-Home Sales Move Up in August [realtor.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

September 22, 2010

FHFA's "Apples" Versus NAR's Medians In July

The latest Federal Housing Finance Agency report by way of Bloomberg:

U.S. home prices dropped 3.3 percent in July from a year earlier, [down 0.5 percent from June], the eighth consecutive decline, as foreclosed properties flooded the market.

Today’s report from the FHFA is based on repeat sales data that compares prices of the same properties over time. The agency, which measures sales of homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, doesn’t provide a specific price.

Keep in mind that based simply on medians rather than "apples-to-apples," the National Association of Realtors reported a 0.7 percent year-over-year increase in prices in July.

∙ U.S. Home Prices Fell 3.3% in July From Year Earlier, FHFA Says [Bloomberg]
∙ July Existing-Home Sales Fall as Expected but Prices Rise [NAR]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

September 20, 2010

San Francisco Listed Housing Supply Hits New High

With 242 new listings for single-family homes, condos, and TICs last week, the supply of listed housing inventory in San Francisco has hit a five (plus) year high of over 1,900 active and available properties, up 27 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Once again in terms of demand, listed sales activity in August was down nearly 30 percent on a year-over-year basis to 362 transactions while recorded sales activity was down 12.3 percent on a year-over-year basis, both decade plus lows.

∙ San Francisco's Listed Inventory Spikes As Listed Sales Slide [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 12.3% In August [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (33) | (email story)

September 17, 2010

San Francisco County Unemployment Holds At 9.7 Percent In August

Preliminary August labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 9.7%, 8.4% and 9.1% respectively, unchanged in San Francisco, down 0.2 percentage points in Marin and 0.3 percentage points in San Mateo.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 100 in August (from 44,500 to 44,400) as the number of employed fell by 500 (from 413,100 to 412,600) and the labor force contracted by 700 (from 457,600 to 456,900).

Overall California unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points to 12.4% as the labor force contracted by 44,700 workers and the ranks of the unemployed fell by 70,300.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: August 2010 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Ticks Up To 9.7 Percent In July [SocketSite]

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September 16, 2010

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity Down 12.3% In August

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 12.3% on a year-over-year basis last month (451 recorded sales in August ’10 versus 514 sales in August ‘09) according to DataQuick, flat as compared to the month prior.

For context, August sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 814 (2004), 733 (2005), 669 (2006), 577 (2007), and 529 (2008). And on average, from 2004 to 2009 sales volume increased 0.4% from July to August.

San Francisco's median sales price in August was $652,500, up 2.8% compared to August ’09 ($635,000) but down 3.5% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in August was down 10.9% on a year-over-year basis, down 1.1% from the month prior (6,698 recorded sales in August '10 versus 7,518 in August ’09 and 6,773 in July '10) as the recorded median sales price rose 6.9% on a year-over-year basis, down 4.2% as compared to the month prior.

Last month was the slowest August in terms of sales volume in 18 years, and versus a 15 year low for July.

Last month foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – inched up to 26.7 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market. That was up from 25.3 percent in July but down from 34.3 percent in August 2009. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 8 percent.

Government-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 24.2 percent of all home purchase loans in August, up from 23.3 percent in July but down slightly from 24.8 percent in August 2009.

At the extremes, Solano recorded a 19.9% drop in sales volume (a loss of 135 transactions) on a 1.0% increase in median sales price in August while Marin recorded a 12.8% decline in sales volume (a loss of 30 transactions) on a 9.0% decrease in median.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area Home Sales Drop to 1992 Level; Median Price Slips Again [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In July Falls 16.8% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ He's It's Back: California’s $10,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Returns [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (32) | (email story)

September 15, 2010

QuickLinks: But What About That Bottom?

∙ U.S. Home Prices Face Three-Year Drop as Supply Gains [Bloomberg]
∙ Home Price Double Dip Begins [CNBC]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

Noe Valley's 1420 Douglas Closes At 26 Percent Under Its 2007 Price

As we wrote in March 2008:

Another plugged-in reader already stole our thunder (and pretty much all our lines), but to sum it all up: 1. Eight months ago 1420 Douglass was purchased for $1,945,000 ($250,000 over asking); 2. Two months ago it returned to the market with a list price of $2,095,000 (and a few "I don't think it will be on the market for very long" type comments); and 3. Last night the list price was reduced $100,000 (5%).

As we added this past July:

The property failed to sell in 2008, and as a plugged-in reader noted last month, 1420 Douglass was foreclosed upon on June 7, 2010. Back on the market today and listed for $1,595,500 (18 percent under its 2007 comp setting price).

And as we reported yesterday, the resale of 1420 Douglass has closed escrow with a reported contract price of $1,440,000. That's 26 percent under the 2007 sale price for the remodeled Noe Valley home, a sale which was used as a "comp" to support the sale prices of other single-family homes at the time.

∙ Another Look At 1420 Douglass (And A Reader's "Lazy Noe Indicator") [SocketSite]
∙ Not Overheard Everyday (Again): Five Months After Closing, It’s Back [SocketSite]
∙ Not Overheard Everyday: Don’t Hit Your Head On The Fireplace [SocketSite]
∙ Fireplace, Foreclosure And Figurative Fireworks Over (In) Noe Valley [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (38) | (email story)

September 14, 2010

Two Years And 25% Later, The Next To Last Infinity Penthouse Sells

Last listed for $5,800,000, the sale of the 3,329 square foot 338 Spear #42B closed escrow on Friday with a reported contract price of $5,200,000 ($1,562 per square).

And while not apples to apples, as J.K. Dineen notes, the sale of the Infinity Tower Two penthouse represents a discount of roughly 25 percent from what “G” paid for his similarly situated and sized tower one penthouse in 2008 ($6,900,000 or $2,056 per square).

The sale price discount shouldn’t catch any plugged-in readers by surprise, however, for as we noted in May, the list price for 338 Spear Street #41B was reduced $1,900,000 (26%) to $5,450,000 ($1,637 per square). It remains listed at that price.

∙ Infinity Sales Update And A Few Additional Details For Tower Two [SocketSite]
∙ Infinity penthouse sells for $5.2M [Business Times]
∙ Infinity Penthouse Unit 37B: Before And After (And The Budget) [SocketSite]
∙ Happenings High Atop The Infinity’s Tower Two [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (60) | (email story)

September 13, 2010

San Francisco's Listed Inventory Spikes As Listed Sales Slide

As plugged-in people have known to expect, inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco spiked 15.1% over the past two weeks, back to within a few listings of a five year high. On average, inventory has increased 19.2% during the same two weeks over the past four years.

Current listed inventory is up 24% on a year-over-year basis, up 18% versus the average of the past four years, and up 24% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. At the same time, listed sales in August (362) were down nearly 30% on a year-over-year basis, the slowest August in San Francisco in well over a decade and versus a 13% year-over-year drop in listed sales in July (385).

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 29% on a year-over-year basis five (plus) year high of 747. Condo inventory is up 21% to 1,050.

34% of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction and the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (88) or seeking a short sale (167) is 14%, down 6% on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 8/30/10 [SocketSite]
∙ A New High For Distressed Listings In San Francisco [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (43) | (email story)

September 9, 2010

Purchase Mortgage Volume Remains Down 38.8% YOY

While mortgage rates remain at historic lows (with plugged-in readers securing 4.375% 30-year rates), mortgage application volume for purchases in the U.S. remains down 38.8% on a year-over-year basis (up 4% week-over-week) according to the latest MBA survey.

∙ Mortgage Bankers Association Applications Survey: 9/03/10 [mortgagebankers.org]
∙ Rates Hit 20-Year Low Yet Purchase Activity Is Down 38.8% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

September 7, 2010

One Percent Down In 2004 (And Perhaps More Down More Since)

In 2004, the Cow Hollow condo at 2382 Union sold for $759,000 and was purchased with a variable rate first mortgage for $599,200 and a fixed rate second mortgage for $149,800. Yes, that adds up to just over 1 percent ($10,000) down.

The two-bedroom unit without parking in 94123 is now back on the MLS as "bank-owned" (although we can’t confirm) asking $679,900 with a kitchen that has since been remodeled (with "stainless steel appliances") and a "wine cellar" in the works.

Speaking of condos in 94123 (which includes the Marina and Cow Hollow), so far in 2010 the median sale price weighs in at $1,200,000. That’s up 24 percent from 2009 ($965,000) and within just 2 percent of its peak to date of $1,219,000 in 2007!

Unfortunately, the median size of condos sold in 2010 (1,525 square feet) is also up over 20 percent from 2009 (1,270 square feet), up 12 percent from 2007 (i.e., the mix of sales has changed). And on a price per square foot basis, so far the median in 2010 ($760) is down 1 percent from 2009 ($768), down 17 percent from 2007 ($921).

In 2004 the median size was 1,290 square feet with a median sale price of $713 per square. Keep in mind that smaller units tend to yield higher per square foot prices.

∙ Listing: 2382 Union (2/2) 1,000 sqft - $679,900 [MLS]
∙ Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing "Prices" [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

September 2, 2010

Pending U.S. Home Sales Rise From June But Slide Year-Over-Year

While the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index rose 5.2 percent from June (75.5) to July (79.4). On a year-over-year basis, however, the index is now down 19.1 percent versus 18.6 percent in June and 15.9 percent in May.

∙ Pending Home Sales Rise [realtor.org]
∙ U.S. Pending Home Sales Down 18.6 Percent Year-Over-Year In June [SocketSite]
∙ Pending Home Sales Plummet And The Markets React [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

August 31, 2010

June Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Tips Atop As YOY Gains Retreat

According to the June 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA rose a nominal 0.3% from May ’10 to June '10, down 34.7% from a peak in May 2006 but up 14.3% year-over-year (YOY) versus an 18.3% YOY gain reported in May.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values rose 1.0% from May to June for a third straight monthly gain but remain down 28.8% from a peak in June 2006 (up 5.0% year-over-year).

“The monthly Composites cover June and the national index covers the second quarter, when the government’s program for first time home-buyers was winding down. While the numbers are upbeat, other more recent data on home sales and mortgages point to fewer gains ahead,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. “Even with concerns about near term developments, we recognize that the housing market is in better shape than this time last year. Further, California’s cities have moved from some of the hardest hit to three of the four leading cities based on year-over-year gains. Among the other hard hit cities, the news is also a bit encouraging – Las Vegas, however, remains among the weaker cities.

“Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites saw home prices increase in June over May – Las Vegas was down 0.6%, Phoenix and Seattle were both flat. Through the second quarter, 15 of the 20 MSAs and both Composites have positive annual growth rates, and no market is registering a doubledigit decline. The worry starts when you remember that the Homebuyers’ Tax Credit has expired, foreclosures are still at high levels, and July data on home sales and starts were very, very weak. The inventory of unsold homes and months’ supply data were particularly troubling. If this relative weakness in demand continues, it will likely filter through to home prices in coming months.”

On a month-over-month basis prices were relatively flat across the market tiers with nominal gains at the bottom and nominal declines at the top for single-family homes in the San Francisco MSA.

The bottom third (under $337,624 at the time of acquisition) gained 0.8% from May to June (up 14.7% YOY); the middle third was unchanged from May to June (up 9.7% YOY); and the top third (over $613,353 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.6% from May to June (up 5.1% YOY versus 8.3% in May).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA remain just above September 2000 levels having fallen 56% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back to just below April 2003 levels having fallen 34% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is back to April 2004 levels having fallen 22% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA rose 0.7% from May ’10 to June '10, falling to a 2.5% gain on a year-over-year basis (down 27.2% from an December 2005 high).

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Second Quarter of 2010 Saw Modest Improvement in Home Prices [Standard & Poor's]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]
∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Plunges 27.2% In July (25.5% YOY) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (40) | (email story)

August 30, 2010

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 8/30/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco dropped 2.1% over the past two weeks on new sales, a slowdown in new listings and a seasonal culling of listings that haven’t moved. On average, inventory has dropped 5.3% during the same two weeks over the past four years. Expect the volume of new listings and available inventory to spike in the weeks following Labor Day.

Current inventory levels remain up 18% on a year-over-year basis and up 21% versus the average of the past four years, up 22% if you exclude 2009, up 36% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 31% on a year-over-year basis versus an 11% increase for condos.

37% of all active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction and the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (92) or seeking a short sale (178) is 17%, up one percentage point but with no substantive change on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 8/16/10 [SocketSite]
∙ A New High For Distressed Listings In San Francisco [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

August 26, 2010

Rates Hit 20-Year Low Yet Purchase Activity Is Down 38.8% YOY

Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest levels in at least 20 years last week. And while refinancing activity is up to its highest level in fifteen months, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s mortgage activity index, purchase activity in the U.S. fell 1.1 percent last week and is currently running 38.8 percent lower on a year-over-year basis.

∙ Mortgage Bankers Association Applications Survey: 8/20/10 [mortgagebankers.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

August 25, 2010

Pace Of New U.S. Home Sales Hits New Historic (S)Low In July

On the heels of yesterday’s dismal existing home sale stats and a leading indicator, sales of new single-family U.S. homes fell to annual pace of 276,000 in July, down 12.4 percent from June and down 32.4 percent on a year-over-year basis for a new record (s)low.

∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Plunges 27.2% In July (25.5% YOY) [SocketSite]
∙ New Residential Sales: July 2010 [census.gov]
∙ New Home Sales Pick Up The Pace But Still Running Second To Last [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

August 24, 2010

"San Francisco" Prestige Index Up 1.8% In Second Quarter

The First Republic Prestige Home Index for "San Francisco" homes valued at more than $1 million ticked up 1.8 percent from the first to second quarter of 2010, down 1.3 percent on a year-over-year basis, down 16 percent from a third quarter 2007 peak, and back to fourth quarter 2004 levels.

Keep in mind that the "San Francisco" index includes "a cross-section of luxury homes in Alamo, Atherton, Belvedere, Danville, Healdsburg, Hillsborough, Lafayette, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Mill Valley, Moraga, Orinda, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Portola Valley, Ross, St. Helena, San Francisco, Saratoga, Sonoma, Tiburon and Woodside." Whew.

∙ First Republic Prestige Home Index: San Francisco [firstrepublic.com]
∙ "San Francisco" Prestige Index Up 1.1% In First Quarter [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Plunges 27.2% In July (25.5% YOY)

The pace of U.S. existing home sales fell to an annual rate of 3.83 million units in July, a drop of 27.2 percent from June and a drop of 25.5 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Sales are at the lowest level since [the National Association of Realtors] total existing-home sales series launched in 1999, and single family sales – accounting for the bulk of transactions – are at the lowest level since May of 1995.

At the same time, inventory increased 2.5 percent to 3.98 million units, an effective supply of over twelve months (a metric with which seasonality can wreak havoc), and the median sales price increased 0.7 percent on a year-over-year basis.

As as plugged-in people know, however, increasing medians shouldn’t be confused with increasing values. Consider that a year ago 66.6 percent of home sales were below $250,000 while this past July it was 65.3 percent (i.e., the mix of higher priced home sales has increased).

∙ July Existing-Home Sales Fall as Expected but Prices Rise [realtor.org]
∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Declines But With Year-Over-Year Gain [SocketSite]
∙ Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing "Prices" [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (42) | (email story)

August 23, 2010

San Francisco County Unemployment Ticks Up To 9.7 Percent In July

Preliminary July labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties pegs the unemployment rate at 9.7%, 8.6% and 9.4% respectively, up 0.1 percentage points in San Francisco, up 0.2 percentage points in San Mateo, and up 0.4 percentage points in Marin.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco rose by 8,000 in July (from 43,700 to 44,500) as the number of employed rose by 1,900 (from 411,200 to 413,100) and the labor force increased by 2,700 (from 454,900 to 457,600).

Overall California unemployment rose by 0.6 percentage points to 12.8% (12.3% and flat month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis) as the labor force gained 89,900 and the ranks of the unemployed increased by 114,900.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: July 2010 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Back Up To 9.6 Percent In June [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

August 19, 2010

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In July Falls 16.8% YOY

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 16.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (452 recorded sales in July ’10 versus 543 sales in July ‘09) according to DataQuick, down 21.1% as compared to the month prior.

For context, July sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 893 (2004), 706 (2005), 542 (2006), 564 (2007), and 609 (2008). And from 2004 to 2009 the average June to July sales volume decline was 7.9%.

San Francisco's median sales price in July was $676,500, up 5.3% compared to July ’09 ($642,426) and up 2.0% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in July was down 22.8% on a year-over-year basis, down 19.1% from the month prior (6,773 recorded sales in July '10 versus 8,771 in July ’09 and 8,373 in June '10) as the recorded median sales price rose 1.8% on a year-over-year basis, flat compared to the month prior.

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again, think mix (and understand medians). Last month was the slowest July in terms of sales volume in 15 years.

At the extremes in July, Santa Clara recorded a 27.5% drop in sales volume (a loss of 604 transactions) on a 9.0% increase in median sales price while Alameda recorded a 23.1% decline in sales volume (a loss of 411 transactions) on a 12.1% increase in median.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area July Home Sales Down Sharply; Median Price Slips [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In June: Up 2.1% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ He's It's Back: California’s $10,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Returns [SocketSite]
∙ Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing "Prices" [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (61) | (email story)

Seasonally Adjusted Initial U.S. Jobless Claims Rise, Unadjusted Fall

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased 12,000 to 500,000 for the week ended August 14 on a seasonally adjusted basis, on an unadjusted basis initial claims fell 22,650 from 424,506 to 401,856. On an adjusted basis it’s the highest level since last November.

San Francisco's (un)employment numbers for July are due out tomorrow.

∙ Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report: August 19, 2010 [ows.doleta.gov]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Back Up To 9.6 Percent In June [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

August 17, 2010

Bay Area Serious Delinquency Rate Continues To Rise

With mortgage delinquency rates that have historically "hovered between 1.5 percent and 2 percent" for those who are seriously-delinquent (overdue by 60 days or more), over the past year the seriously-delinquent rate for the San Francisco MSA has increased from 7.07 percent to 7.97 percent according to a TransUnion report.

The national serious-delinquency rate currently stands at 6.67 percent versus 10.45 percent in California. San Francisco county weighs in at 4.49 percent versus 13.12 percent in Solana and 3.98 percent in Marin.

∙ Mortgage delinquency rates edge up in Bay Area [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

August 16, 2010

Latest Bank-Owned Listings: Pacific Heights, North Beach, And Lake

Speaking of bank-owned listed inventory in San Francisco, the three latest bank-owned listings in San Francisco are: 1998 Broadway #702 in Pacific Heights (purchased for $198,000 in 1996), 520 Chestnut Street #404 in North Beach (purchased for $904,000 in 2007), and 166 19th Avenue in the Lake District (purchased for $1,300,000 in 2005).

Bank-owned listings have just about doubled over the past year in San Francisco.

∙ Listing: 1998 Broadway #702 (1/1) 700 sqft - $599,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 520 Chestnut Street #404 (2/2) 1,018 sqft - $725,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 166 19th Avenue (4/3) 2,464 sqft - $1,199,800 [MLS]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 8/16/10 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 8/16/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco dropped 3.6% over the past two weeks on new sales, a slowdown in new listings and a seasonal culling of listings that haven’t moved. On average, inventory has dropped 3.6% during the same two weeks over the past four years.

Current inventory levels are now up 18% on a year-over-year basis and up 18% versus the average of the past four years, up 19% if you exclude 2009, up 28% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 26% on a year-over-year basis versus a 13% increase for condos.

40% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction and the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (89) or seeking a short sale (179) is up to 17% but with no change on absolute basis over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 8/02/10 [SocketSite]
∙ A New High For Distressed Listings In San Francisco [Socketsite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

August 13, 2010

Redfin Reports: San Francisco Sales Volume Falls 24.9% YOY In July

With recorded sales volume falling an average of 7.9 percent from June to July over the past six years, a seasonal decline is to be expected, but a 22.4 percent drop in sales from June (563) to July (437) this year according to Redfin might raise an eyebrow or two.

And perhaps even more telling, sales volume appears to have fallen 24.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in July with sales of single-family homes falling 20.3 percent (from 281 to 224) and condos falling 29.7 percent (from 290 to 204).

It’s the first year-over-year decline in terms of sales volume in San Francisco since August 2009 and suggests tax credits have been (temporarily) stimulating the San Francisco market more than some might have thought.

Redfin’s monthly market report draws from both Multiple Listing Services and government records, and as such should reflect both listed and unlisted transactions. In terms of inventory, keep in mind that Redfin includes listings which are in contract but contingent, an approach we don’t agree with and don’t do in our counts.

∙ Nobody Move! Bay Area Home Sales Seize Up (July Insider Report) [Redfin]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 8/02/10 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (61) | (email story)

August 4, 2010

Mix? Pshaw! Who's Ever Heard Of Such A Ridiculous Thing...

From HousingWire's summary of Morgan Stanley's latest Housing Markets Insights report:

Morgan Stanley analysts are questioning the power of national home price indices, saying that local 'shift-in-mix' impacts may overcome the veracity of such large measurement values.

In their latest Housing Markets Insights report, the analysts for the investment bank are asserting that the notion of a national housing market that can be quantified in an index, such as Case-Shiller, RPX – and even Morgan Stanley's – no longer "reflect what we believe to be the actual changes in home prices," they say.

"While greater macro trends can certainly affect housing across the country, individual markets can deviate substantially from each other," write researchers Oliver Chang, James Egan and Vishwanath Tirupattur. "We remain convinced that actual home prices may have more to fall, regardless of what the major indices may report."

Mix? Who's ever heard of such a ridiculous thing. And specific to the San Francisco MSA:

"For the city that shows the highest YoY gains in the major indices, we find that it is actually showing the beginning of a double-dip with non-distressed prices aggregated across square foot tiers down 1.2% YoY, short sales down 2%, and REO liquidations up 20%," the report concludes.

See chart above.

∙ Morgan Stanley Questions Power of Home Price Indices [HousingWire.com]
∙ Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing "Prices" [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (43) | (email story)

August 3, 2010

U.S. Pending Home Sales Down 18.6 Percent Year-Over-Year In June

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sale Index which measures contracts versus closings for existing home sales fell 2.6 percent from May to June, down 18.6 percent on a year-over-year basis. The index fell 0.2 percent from May to June in the West, down 14.2 percent on a year-over-year basis.

∙ Pending Home Sales Ease in Post-Tax Credit Market [NAR]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

August 2, 2010

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 8/02/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco dropped 8.1% over the past three weeks on new sales, a slowdown in new listings and a seasonal culling of listings that haven’t moved. On average, inventory has only dropped 2.6% during the same three weeks over the past four years.

Current inventory levels remain up 13% on a year-over-year basis and up 18% versus the average of the past four years, up 20% if you exclude 2009, up 30% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 13% on a year-over-year basis versus a 20% increase for condos.

41% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction and the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (94) or seeking a short sale (174) is up to 16%, up 6% on an absolute basis over the past three weeks but down 7% on an absolute basis over the past seven days.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 7/12/10 [SocketSite]
∙ A New High For Distressed Listings In San Francisco [Socketsite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (36) | (email story)

July 28, 2010

Apples, Medians, And May Case-Shiller For 1251 44th Avenue

Purchased for $479,000 in June of 2002, the one bedroom single-family home at 1251 44th Avenue was taken back by the bank this past May with what would appear to have been $567,000 owed. The property was just listed for $448,900.

The median sale price per square foot for homes in the neighborhood was $396 in 2002, peaked at $579 in 2007, and is currently weighing in at $508, down 3% year-over-year and down 12% from peak, but up 28 percent versus 2002.

Keep in mind the median sized home sale in the neighborhood has averaged around 1,450 square feet, size matters when it comes to comparing price per square foot on an absolute basis, and remodeling has been particularly popular over the past eight years.

The Case-Shiller index for middle tier homes in the San Francisco MSA measured 146.28 in May, up 12.7 percent year-over-year, down 34 percent from a peak in May 2006 (down 30 percent from a 2007 average), and up 3 percent versus June 2002.

∙ Listing: 1251 44th Avenue (1/1) 1,000 sqft - $448,900 [MLS]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

July 27, 2010

May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop

According to the May 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA rose 1.7% from April ’10 to May '10, down 34.9% from a peak in May 2006 but up 18.3% year-over-year (YOY).

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values rose 1.3% from April to May for a second straight monthly gain but remain down 29.6% from a peak in June 2006 (up 5.5% year-over-year).

"While May’s report on its own looks somewhat positive, a broader look at home price levels over the past year still do not indicate that the housing market is in any form of sustained recovery," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. "Since reaching its recent trough in April 2009, the housing market has really only stabilized at this lower level. The two Composites have improved between 5 and 6% since then, but this is no better than the improvement they had registered as of October 2009. The last seven months have basically been flat."

On a month-over-month basis, and for the first time in six months, prices rose across all three tiers for single-family homes in the San Francisco MSA.

The bottom third (under $335,860 at the time of acquisition) gained 2.1% from April to May (up 14.8% YOY); the middle third rose 2.6% from April to May (up 12.7% YOY); and the top third (over $611,205 at the time of acquisition) gained 1.6% from April to May (up 8.3% YOY versus 10.7% in April).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA remain just above September 2000 levels having fallen 56% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back to just below April 2003 levels having fallen 34% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is back to April 2004 levels having fallen 22% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA rose 2.3% from April ’10 to May '10, holding at a 4.7% gain on a year-over-year basis (down 29.4% from an December 2005 high) for the second straight month.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ For the Past Year Home Prices Have Generally Moved Sideways [Standard & Poor's]
∙ April Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco MSA Up At Top But Down Below [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (79) | (email story)

July 26, 2010

Now Asking Under Five Hundred A Foot For Three Bedrooms Atop Noe

Speaking of distressed listings, the list price for the bank-owned 647 Grand View #1 has just been reduced $60,600 to $1,153,200 ($498 per square foot). Once again, the 2,316 square foot Noe Valley condo was refinanced in October 2007 with loans totaling $1,870,000.

647 Grand View #2 and #4 appear to have sold in October of 2007 for $1,100 and $764 a square foot respectively. And the sale of the 1,068 square foot 647 Grand View #3 closed escrow last week with a reported contract price of $610,000 ($571 per square foot).

∙ A New High For Distressed Listings In San Francisco [SocketSite]
∙ A Grand Fall For 647 Grand View Atop Noe Valley [SocketSite]
∙ A (Grand) View To A (Comp) Kill [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | (email story)

A New High For Distressed Listings In San Francisco

The number of bank-owned (102) and proposed short sales (185) listed in San Francisco has ticked up 6 percent over the past week to a new absolute high of 287 or 16 percent of all active listings (1,792).

On a year-over-year basis, the number of distressed listings is up 49 percent, up 3 percentage points as a percentage of all listings.

∙ Bank-Owned And Short Sale Listings On The Rise In San Francisco [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

New Home Sales Pick Up The Pace But Still Running Second To Last

Sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. rose to annual pace of 330,000 in June, up 23.6 percent from May but down 16.7 percent on a year-over-year basis and the second slowest pace on record since 1963. Sales in the west fell 6.6 percent from May to June.

∙ New Residential Sales: June 2010 [census.gov]
∙ Pace Of New Home Sales In The U.S. Hits Historic Low [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

July 22, 2010

Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Declines But With Year-Over-Year Gain

Having fallen 2.2 percent from April to May, the pace of existing home sales in the U.S. fell another 5.1 percent to a 5.37 million annual rate in June, up 7.2 percent on a year over year basis versus 2.4 percent the month prior.

∙ As Expected, Another Unexpected Decline For Existing Home Sales [SocketSite]
∙ Purchases of U.S. Existing Homes Fell in June [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

July 19, 2010

Bank-Owned And Short Sale Listings On The Rise In San Francisco

While the volume of bank-owned sales is on the decline for the greater Bay Area (26.7 percent of sales in June, the lowest since April 2008 and down from 36.7 percent in June 2009), the number of bank-owned (92) and short sale listings (180) in San Francisco has trended up to 272, a new absolute high although only 15% of all active listings.

∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In June: Up 2.1% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 7/12/10 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

July 16, 2010

San Francisco County Unemployment Back Up To 9.6 Percent In June

Preliminary June labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.6%, 8.2% and 9.2% respectively, up 0.4 percentage points in San Francisco and San Mateo, up 0.3 percentage points in Marin.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco rose by 2,100 (from 41,600 to 43,700) in June as the number of employed fell by 1,500 (from 412,700 to 411,200) and the labor force increased by 600 (from 454,300 to 454,900).

Overall California unemployment rose by 0.3 percentage points to 12.2% as the labor force gained 49,000 and the ranks of the unemployed increased by 47,300.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: May 2010 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Down To 9.2 Percent In May [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

July 15, 2010

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In June: Up 2.1% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco was up 2.1% on a year-over-year basis last month (573 recorded sales in June ’10 versus 561 sales in June ‘09), down 7.0% as compared to the month prior. As we previously noted, keep in mind an incentive to push April closings into May this year.

For context, June sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 938 (2004), 801 (2005), 705 (2006), 633 (2007), and 571 (2008). And from 2004 to 2009 the average May to June sales volume gain was 4.3%.

San Francisco's median sales price in June was $663,500, up 4.5% compared to June ’09 ($635,000) and up 4.2% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in May was down 3.1% on a year-over-year basis, up 1.3% from the month prior (8,374 recorded sales in June '10 versus 8,644 in June ’09 and 8,264 in May '10) as the recorded median sales price rose 16.5% on a year-over-year basis, flat compared to the month prior.

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again, think mix (and understand medians).

Last month foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – fell to 26.7 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market. That was the lowest since April 2008 and was down from 26.8 percent in May and 36.7 percent in June 2009. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is 7.9 percent.

Last month 39.2 percent of all Bay Area home sales were over $500,000, down slightly from 40.2 percent in May but up from 34.5 percent last year. Sales over $800,000 rose to 17.2 percent of June sales, up from 15.4 percent in May and 13.9 percent a year ago. Viewed a different way, sales of existing single-family houses in zip codes representing the top one-third of the market, based on their historical prices, accounted for 35.5 percent of all sales in June, about the same as in May but up from 31.3 percent a year ago.

And thank (or curse) the FHA.

Last month federally-insured FHA loans continued to fuel much of the first-time buyer activity and some move-up purchases. The low-down-payment loans made up 25.8 percent of Bay Area purchase lending last month, up from 24.4 percent in May and up from 23.9 percent a year ago, and 10.7 percent two years ago.

At the extremes, Napa recorded a 32.4% increase in sales volume (a gain of 35 transactions) on a 3.5% increase in median sales price in June while Solano recorded a 10.3% decline in sales volume (a loss of 88 transactions) on a 13.5% increase in median.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area June Home Sales Send Mixed Signals [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In May: Up 23.7% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ He's It's Back: California’s $10,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Returns [SocketSite]
∙ Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing "Prices" [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Up 8 Percent Year-Over-Year

According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings – default notices (NODs), auction sale notices (NOTs) and bank repossessions – were reported on 1,654,634 U.S. properties in the first six months of 2010, a 5 percent decrease from the previous six months but an 8 percent increase from the first six months of 2009.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 313,841 U.S. properties in June, a decrease of nearly 3 percent from the previous month and a decrease of nearly 7 percent from June 2009. June was the sixteenth straight month where the total number of properties with foreclosure filings exceeded 300,000.

Foreclosure filings were reported on 895,521 U.S. properties during the second quarter, a decrease of nearly 4 percent from the previous quarter and an increase of less than 1 percent from the second quarter of 2009. Default and auction notices were down on a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis in the second quarter, but bank repossessions (REOs) increased 5 percent from the previous quarter and 38 percent from Q2 2009 to 269,962 — a new quarterly high for the report.

One in 78 housing units in the U.S. received a foreclosure filing in the first half of the year.

California led the nation with 340,740 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in the first half of 2010, but filings were down roughly 13 percent year-over-year and down 15 percent versus the previous six months.

∙ 1.65 Million Properties Receive Foreclosure Filings in First Half of 2010 [realtytrac.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

July 12, 2010

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 7/12/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco has continued to climb over the past two weeks having increased 1% versus an average increase of 2.4% for the same two weeks over the past four years.

Current inventory levels are now up 15% on a year-over-year basis and up 22% versus the average of the past four years (up 25% if you exclude 2009) and up 40% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 19% on a year-over-year basis versus a 12% increase for condos. Once again, inventory would be dropping if new demand was increasing faster than new supply although the converse is not necessarily true as listings can simply be withdrawn.

38% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction and the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (88) or seeking a short sale (164) is holding at 14%.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 6/28/10 [SocketSite]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (43) | (email story)

July 9, 2010

Perhaps It Really Is Different Here In San Francisco...

From the New York Times:

More than one in seven homeowners [in the U.S.] with loans in excess of a million dollars are seriously delinquent, according to data compiled for The New York Times by the real estate analytics firm CoreLogic.

By contrast, homeowners with less lavish housing are much more likely to keep writing checks to their lender. About one in 12 mortgages below the million-dollar mark is delinquent.

Seriously delinquent is considered to be three or more missed payments in a row and the pipeline for foreclosure. The rather important missing statistic that we'd love to see: the difference in cure rates between the two tiers.

∙ Biggest Defaulters on Mortgages Are the Rich [New York Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (36) | (email story)

July 8, 2010

Mortgage Rates Drop And Applications To Purchase...Do As Well

With mortgage rates down near to historic lows (now 4.57 percent for 30 year fixed), the volume of mortgage loan applications as measured by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Market Composite Index increased 6.5 percent from June 25 to July 2.

The increase, however, is being driven by applications to refinance.

The Refinance Index increased 9.2 percent from the previous week and is the highest Refinance Index observed in the survey since the week ending May 15, 2009. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier. The Purchase Index has decreased eight of the last nine weeks. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 34.7 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

"Mortgage rates remained near record lows last week, as incoming data on the job and housing markets were weaker than anticipated. As more homeowners locked in to these low rates, the level of refinance applications increased to a new 13-month high," said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. "For the month of June, purchase applications declined almost 15 percent relative to the prior month, and were down more than 30 percent compared to April, the last month in which buyers were eligible for the tax credit."

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 6.4 percent. Again, driven by refinancing (up 8.3 percent) versus purchase (up 0.1 percent).

∙ U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Decline to Record 4.57% [Bloomberg]
∙ Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Survey: July 2 [mbaa.org]
∙ Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension For Closing (Not Contract) Date [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (39) | (email story)

July 7, 2010

Dow Ticks Back Over 10,000: Bull Rally Or Bear Trap?

The Dow closed the day at 10,018, it's first close over 10,000 since closing under last week. The S&P closed the day at 1,060, up 3.1 percent for the day. Bull rally or bear trap?

∙ The Dow Drops Back Below 10,000. Yes, Skittish. [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

July 2, 2010

Apartment Leasing Business Going To The Dogs Brokers In SF?

While a comparison of Craigslist listings over (rather than point in) time would be more compelling, a plugged-in reader with a rental unit in soma echos The Bay Citizen's report that brokers seem to be gaining share in San Francisco's rental market.

"The trend has gone to broker representation," said a local real estate firm associate who analyzes the San Francisco rental market on a weekly basis but was not authorized to speak publicly. Interviews with several other brokers and real estate experts confirmed the shift. In a slow home sales market, managing apartment rentals has provided agents with an expanded revenue stream — and they forge relationships with prospective home buyers.

But with broker fees typically 6 percent of a year’s rent, why would property owners start paying middlemen? After all, San Francisco is one of the most expensive rental markets in the nation, and demand for housing is considered steady.

Experts say the shift has to do with new buildings, the recession and the city’s pro-tenant environment.

We'll say it's a function of more single-unit landlords without economies of scale or experience in a down market. Or as another reader notes, perhaps brokers are simply more likely to spam post multiple ads on Craigslist.

∙ Brokers’ Entrance Into Market Bodes Ill for Renters [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (33) | (email story)

July 1, 2010

Movement In The S&P 500 Versus Case-Shiller Since 1987

Sorry folks, but as noted, we screwed the proverbial pooch when we originally posted our reader’s S&P 500 versus Case-Shiller Index chart. Our greatest sin of which we do know better, posting a chart without inspecting the underlying data. That being said:

According to the April 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA rose 2.2% from March ’10 to April '10, down 36.0% from a peak in May 2006 but up 18.0% year-over-year.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values rose 0.7% from March to April reversing a five month slide but remain down 30.5% from a peak in June 2006 (up 4.6% year-over-year).

On our other axis the S&P 500 is currently up 11 percent year-over-year having fallen 14 percent since the end of April, down 34 percent from an October 2007 peak, and back to September 2003 levels ignoring the roller coaster that commenced at the end of 2008.

∙ April Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco MSA Up At Top But Down Below [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

Pending Home Sales Plummet And The Markets React

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index ("a forward-looking indicator") fell 30 percent from April (110.9) to May (77.6). All seasonality and now stimulus aside, the index fell 15.9 percent on a year-over-year basis (92.3 in May 2009).

And while the National Association of Realtors did employ "as expected" in the headline of their press release, the markets would disagree, at least with respect to the magnitude of the drop. And that’s why it matters in San Francisco.

∙ Pending Home Sales Drop as Expected [realtor.org]
∙ Senate Approves First-Time (And Move-Up) Homebuyer Tax Credits [SocketSite]
∙ The Dow Drops Back Below 10,000. Yes, Skittish. [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

June 30, 2010

Back On Edinburgh (And In The Excelsior)

Since the sale of CBS's infamous "42 offer home" at 555 Edinburgh closed escrow in April of 2009 for "24 percent over asking" (and calling a "real estate rebound"), the median sale price per square foot for homes in 94112 has declined 11 percent to $405.

Yesterday 458 Edinburgh hit the market in 94112 asking $499,000 ($399 per square foot) having been purchased in July 2005 for $770,000 ($616 per square foot), a 35 percent decline in value over the past five years at asking.

As plugged-in people know, 454 Edinburgh right next door which looked to be in a bit better than median shape (and which we rather liked), closed escrow in May for $608,000 ($434 per square foot).

Keep in mind that housing stock in the neighborhood is relatively homogenous in terms of age and size, and the neighborhood hasn’t seen a lot of new development or major remodels which can quickly change the mix of reported neighborhood sales and stats.

∙ The SocketSite Reality Check For CBS’s Infamous "42 Offer" Home [SocketSite]
∙ 555 Edinburgh Sells For 24% Over Asking (The Neighborhood Median) [SocketSite]
∙ CBS Calls It A "Real Estate Rebound In San Francisco" [SocketSite]
∙ Our Divining Rod Strikes 454 Edinburgh [SocketSite]
∙ Divining The Condition Of A Potentially Divine 454 Edinburgh [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

June 29, 2010

The Dow Drops Back Below 10,000. Yes, Skittish.

We’re back below 10,000 as the Dow closed the day at 9,870 without any so called "fat fingers" (which were never really) to blame. The S&P closed the day down 3.1% to 1,041 erasing its year to date recovery and dropping to a new year to date low (down 6.6%).

Yes, skittish.

In more upbeat Bay Area market news, newly minted shares of Tesla closed the day up 40.5% on their first day of trading.

Full Disclosure: Our Editor in Chief owns shares of Tesla.

∙ S&P 500 Back To Even For The Year To Date As Skittishness Remains [SocketSite]
∙ (D)ow! And Did We Say Skittish? [SocketSite]
∙ QuickLinks: A Rough Day On A Skittish Street [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (32) | (email story)

April Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco MSA Up At Top But Down Below

According to the April 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA rose 2.2% from March ’10 to April '10, down 36.0% from a peak in May 2006 but up 18.0% year-over-year.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values rose 0.7% from March to April reversing a five month slide but remain down 30.5% from a peak in June 2006 (up 4.6% year-over-year).

"The month-over-month figures were driven by the end of the Federal first-time home buyer tax credit program on April 30th. Eighteen cities saw month-to-month gains in April compared to six in the previous month. Miami and New York were the two that fared the worst in April compared to March. New York is the only MSA to have posted a new relative index low with April’s report." says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.

"Other housing data confirm the large impact, and likely near-future pullback, of the federal program. Recently released data for May 2010 show sharp declines in existing and new home sales and housing starts. Inventory data and foreclosure activity have not shown any signs of improvement. Consistent and sustained boosts to economic growth from housing may have to wait to next year."

On a month-over-month basis prices fell for the bottom price tier but rose for the top two tiers for single-family homes in the San Francisco MSA.

The bottom third (under $330,403 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.3% from March to April (up 12.0% YOY); the middle third rose 1.1% from March to April (up 11.0% YOY); and the top third (over $601,426 at the time of acquisition) gained 2.5% from March to April (up 10.7% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA remain just below September 2000 levels having fallen 57% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back to June 2002 levels having fallen 36% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is between March and April 2004 levels having fallen 23% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA rose 3.5% from March ’10 to April '10, up 4.7% on a year-over-year basis and down 29.4% from an December 2005 high.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Prices Do Not Yet Show Signs of Sustained Recovery [Standard & Poor's]
∙ March Case-Shiller Index: Mixed Messages For San Francisco MSA [SocketSite]
∙ As Expected, Another Unexpected Decline For Existing Home Sales [SocketSite]
∙ Pace Of New Home Sales In The U.S. Hits Historic Low [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

June 28, 2010

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 6/28/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco continues to climb having increased 3% over the past two weeks versus an average 2% decline for the same two weeks over the past four years.

Current inventory levels are now up 10% on a year-over-year basis and up 23% versus the average of the past four years (up 27% if you exclude 2009) and up 48% as compared to a 2006/2007 average.

The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 16% on a year-over-year basis versus a 6% increase for condos. Once again, inventory would be dropping if new demand was increasing faster than new supply although the converse is not necessarily true as listings can simply be withdrawn.

38% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction and the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (87) or seeking a short sale (164) is holding at 14% (up 6% on an absolute basis).

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 6/14/10 [SocketSite]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

June 23, 2010

Pace Of New Home Sales In The U.S. Hits Historic Low

Purchases of new homes in the U.S. fell to an annual pace of 300,000 in May, down 33 percent from April (revised to 446,000) and the slowest pace of sales since records started being kept in 1963. Sales in the west fell 53 percent.

For context, the pace of new home sales in the U.S. peaked at 1,389,000 in July 2005.

∙ Sales of U.S. New Houses Plunges to Record Low as Credit Ends [SocketSite]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales Up 48% YOY As Tax Credits Expire [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

June 22, 2010

As Expected, Another Unexpected Decline For Existing Home Sales

After jumping 26 percent on a year-over-year basis to 5.77 million in April, the pace of existing U.S. home sales fell 2.2 percent to 5.66 million in May, up 2.7 percent year-over-year as inventories dropped (unlike in San Francisco) 3.4 percent to 3.89 million.

∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Up In April Along With Inventory [SocketSite]
∙ Purchases of U.S. Existing Homes Unexpectedly Fall [Bloomberg]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 6/14/10 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

June 18, 2010

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In May: Up 23.7% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco was up 23.7% on a year-over-year basis last month (616 recorded sales in May ’10 versus 498 sales in May ‘09) and up 43.9% as compared to the month prior. As we noted last month, "keep in mind an incentive to push April closings into May this year."

For context, May sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 863 (2004), 773 (2005), 691 (2006), 616 (2007), and 593 (2008). And from 2004 to 2009 the average April to May sales volume gain was 8.7%. Again, see last sentence in paragraph above.

San Francisco's median sales price in May was $636,500, up a nominal 0.4% compared to May ’09 ($634,000) and down 8.1% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in May was up 11.0% on a year-over-year basis and up 18.0% from the month prior (8,264 recorded sales in May '10 versus 7,447 in May ’09 and 7,003 in April '10), while the recorded median sales price rose 20.1% on a year-over-year basis, up 10.8% compared to the month prior.

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again, think mix (and understand medians).

Jumbo loans, mortgages above the old conforming limit of $417,000, accounted for 35.1 percent of last month’s purchase lending, up from 31.5 percent in April and 25.8 percent in May 2009. Last month’s figure was the highest since it was 38.7 percent in December 2007. However, before the August 2007 credit crunch hit, jumbos accounted for nearly 60 percent of the market.

In May, 13.1 percent of all home purchase loans were ARMs, up from 11.1 percent in April and up from 3.5 percent a year ago. May’s ARM level was the highest since September 2008, but was still well below the monthly average ARM rate of nearly 50 percent over the last decade.

Meantime, federally-insured FHA loans continue to drive many first-time buyer purchases and some move-up activity. The low-down-payment loans made up 24.6 percent of Bay Area purchase lending last month, down from 25.4 percent in April but up from 23.9 percent a year ago and 8.1 percent two years ago.

At the extremes, Santa Clara recorded a 28.2% increase in sales volume (a gain of 476 transactions) on a 18.0% increase in median sales price in May while Solano recorded a 7.6% decline in sales volume (a loss of 54 transactions) on a 15.6% increase in median.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area $500K-Plus Home Sales Jump [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In April: Up 6.5% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ He's It's Back: California’s $10,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Returns [SocketSite]
∙ Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing "Prices" [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

San Francisco County Unemployment Down To 9.2 Percent In May

Preliminary May labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.2%, 7.9% and 8.8% respectively, down 0.4 percentage points in all three counties.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 1,900 (from 43,500 to 41,600) in May as the number of employed increased by 1,300 (from 411,400 to 412,700) and the labor force decreased by 600 (from 454,900 to 454,300).

Overall California unemployment fell by 0.3 percentage points to 11.9% as the labor force fell by 25,700 and employment increased by 40,000.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: May 2010 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.6 Percent In April [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

June 16, 2010

U.S. Housing Starts And Permits Fall But Remain Up Year-Over-Year

U.S. housing starts fell to an annual pace of 593,000 in May, down 10 percent from April but up 7.8 percent year-over-year. Permit activity in the U.S. hit a one-year low falling 5.9 percent from April to May but remains up 4.4 percent year-over-year.

∙ Housing Starts in U.S. Fell to 593,000 Pace in May [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. Housing Starts Up But New Permits Decline As Tax Credits Expire [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

June 15, 2010

Redfin Reports: San Francisco Sales Volume Up 22.8% In May

According to Redfin’s market report for May, sales volume of single-family homes and condominiums in San Francisco was up 22.8 percent on a year-over-year basis (549 transactions in May 2010 versus 447 transactions in May 2009), up 20.9 percent versus this past April (454).

Sales volume for San Francisco single-family homes this past May (258) was up 18.3 percent versus May 2009 (218), up 14.7 percent versus this past April (225). Sales volume for condominiums was up 27.1 percent on a year-over-year basis (229 in May 2009 versus 291 in May 2010), down 27.1 percent versus this past April (229).

Sales volume for the greater Bay Area was up 3 percent on a year-over-year basis in May, up 8 percent month-over-month.

Redfin’s monthly market report draws from both Multiple Listing Services and government records, and as such should reflect both listed and unlisted transactions. In terms of inventory, keep in mind that Redfin includes listings which are in contract but contingent, an approach we don’t agree with and don’t do in our counts.

∙ Redfin Reports: April Sales Volume For San Francisco Up 10% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ Bay Area May Market Report: Prices Increase 9.9% in May, Funk Coming [Redfin]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 6/14/10 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

June 14, 2010

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 6/14/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 3% over the past week, up 7 percent over the past two and versus an average 6% increase for the same two weeks over the past four years.

Current inventory levels are now up 7% on a year-over-year basis and up 19% versus the average of the past four years (up 23% if you exclude 2009) and up 40% as compared to 2006/2007. Inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is up 15% on a year-over-year basis versus only a 1% increase for condos. Keep in mind that if new demand was increasing faster than new supply, inventory would be dropping.

36% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction with the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (85) or seeking a short sale (152) up to 14%.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ Listed Inventory Crosses 2009 Mark For Four Year Seasonal High [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 6/1/10 [SocketSite]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (37) | (email story)

June 10, 2010

Bay Area Business Confidence Up According To Council Survey

According to the latest Bay Area Council’s Business Confidence survey, 58 percent of CEOs and executives questioned believe local economic conditions have improved over the past six months, up from 36 percent three months ago.

Looking ahead, 63 percent said they expect a better Bay Area economy six months from now, a 16-point increase from last quarter.

Overall business confidence among the executives is at the highest level since July 2005, the group said. It registered at 62 on a scale of 100, up from 43 a year ago. The all-time low was 31 in January 2009.

29 percent of those surveyed expect to add staff in the next six months, 14 percent plan layoffs, and 55 percent expect no change. San Francisco’s unemployment rate was 9.6 percent in April (rates for May will be published in a week).

∙ Bay Area execs see bright business future [SFGate]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.6 Percent In April [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

June 7, 2010

Listed Inventory Crosses 2009 Mark For Four Year Seasonal High

With an uptick of 4 percent over the past week, the inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs for sale in San Francisco has reached a four year seasonal high (i.e., versus the same point in time over the past four years) having crossed the inventory levels of 2009 (1651) on a year-over-year basis for the first time in 2010 (1677).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 6/1/10 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (29) | (email story)

June 1, 2010

QuickLinks: Another Foreclosure Wave Forming Just Offshore?

∙ Owners Stop Paying Mortgages, and Stop Fretting [NYT]
∙ Foreclosures shifting to affluent ZIP codes [SFGate]
∙ Interest-only loans meteoric rise in the Bay Area [SocketSite 2005]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 6/1/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 0.8% over the past three weeks versus an average 1.1% decline for the same three weeks over the past four years.

Current inventory levels are down 3% on a year-over-year basis but up 17% versus the average of the past four years (up 24% if you exclude 2009) and up 40% as compared to 2006/2007. Inventory of single-family homes in San Francisco is up 6% on a year-over-year basis, down 1% versus 2008 and up 46% versus 2007.

36% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction (almost double what others are reporting) with the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (70) or seeking a short sale (146) hovering around 13%.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 5/10/10 [SocketSite.com]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite] 

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (36) | (email story)

May 28, 2010

"San Francisco" Prestige Index Up 1.1% In First Quarter

The First Republic Prestige Home Index for "San Francisco" homes valued at more than $1 million ticked up 1.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010, down 6.1 percent on a year-over-year basis, down 18 percent from a third quarter 2007 peak, and back to second quarter 2004 levels.

Keep in mind that the "San Francisco" index includes "a cross-section of luxury homes in Alamo, Atherton, Belvedere, Danville, Healdsburg, Hillsborough, Lafayette, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Mill Valley, Moraga, Orinda, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Portola Valley, Ross, St. Helena, San Francisco, Saratoga, Sonoma, Tiburon and Woodside." Whew.

∙ First Republic Prestige Home Index: San Francisco [firstrepublic.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

May 27, 2010

Requests For Reductions In Residential Assessments Up 46 Percent

Perhaps due in part to the ease of starting the process online this year (as plugged-in people knew), 6,462 requests for reductions in residential property assessments were received by San Francisco’s Assessor-Recorder’s office this year, up from 4,421 last year and 1,673 the year before that.

In all, 11,700 homeowners have received temporary property tax reductions in the current fiscal year that ends June 30; some at the request of the property owners, others at the initiation of the assessor's office. The cumulative total in reduced assessed value added up to $1.4 billion.

Rulings on the requests will be out by early August, appeals will be due by September 15.

∙ Assessing The Potential Upside Of A Down Market: Tax Basis Redux [SocketSite]
∙ Thousands more in S.F. seek property tax breaks [SFGate]
∙ JustQuotes: It's Time To Make Some Property Tax Lemonade [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

May 26, 2010

U.S. New Home Sales Up 48% YOY As Tax Credits Expire

Purchases of new homes in the U.S. increased to an annual pace of 504,000 in April, up 15 percent from a revised March (439,000) and up 48 percent on a year-over-year basis (341,000 in April 2009) as Federal tax credits expired at the end of the month.

To receive a tax credit worth as much as $8,000, contracts had to be signed by the end of April, meaning demand will probably wane in coming months. Rising foreclosures, falling stock prices caused by concern over the European debt crisis and unemployment may hamper any recovery in sales and construction into the second half of the year.

For context, the pace of new home sales in the U.S. peaked at 1,389,000 in July 2005.

∙ New Residential Sales: April 2010 [census.gov]
∙ Sales of New Homes in U.S. Jump to Two-Year High [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales Up 13% YOY As Credits Set To Expire [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

May 25, 2010

March Case-Shiller Index: Mixed Messages For San Francisco MSA

According to the March 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA rose 1.5% from February ’10 to March '10, down 37.4% from a peak in May 2006 but up 16.1% year-over-year.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.4% from February to March (the fifth consecutive slide) and remain down 30.9% from a peak in June 2006 (up 3.2% year-over-year).

Looking at the monthly statistics, 13 of the 20 metro areas showed a decline in March compared to February. Boston was flat. Eight MSAs posted new index lows in March – Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, New York, Portland and Tampa. Las Vegas and Phoenix have peak-to-current declines of 56.3 and 51.8%, respectively.

On a more optimistic note, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, San Diego and San Francisco have shown recovery from recent lows of +7.2%, +7.4%, +10.9%, and +16.2%, respectively. San Diego, in particular, has stood out with 11 consecutive months of increasing home prices.

On a month-over-month basis prices fell nominally across the bottom two price tiers but rose for top tier single-family homes in the San Francisco MSA.

The bottom third (under $324,798 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.1% from February to March (up 10.3% YOY); the middle third fell 0.2% from February to March (up 8.9% YOY); and the top third (over $589,259 at the time of acquisition) gained 1.6% from February to March (up 8.2% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are just below September 2000 levels having fallen 57% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around May 2002 levels having fallen 37% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is back to February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.7% from February ’10 to March '10, up 1.5% on a year-over-year basis and down 31.7% from an December 2005 high.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ First Quarter of 2010 Indicates Some Weakening in Home Prices [Standard & Poor's]
∙ February Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco Falls Across All Price Tiers [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (67) | (email story)

May 24, 2010

Existing U.S. Home Sales Up In April Along With Inventory

Existing U.S. home sales jumped 26 percent on a year-over-year basis to a 5.77 million annual rate in April, the deadline month to be in contract in order to qualify for a federal homebuyer’s tax credit. Inventories of existing homes for sale climbed to 4.04 million.

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

May 21, 2010

San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.6 Percent In April

Preliminary April labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.6%, 8.3% and 9.2% respectively, down 0.7 percentage points in San Francisco, 0.5 percentage points in Marin, and 0.6 percentage points in San Mateo.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 3,500 (from 4,700 to 43,500) in April and the number of employed increased by 700 (from 410,700 to 411,400) as the labor force decreased by 2,800 (from 457,700 to 454,900).

Overall California unemployment fell by 0.7 percentage points to 12.3% as the labor force fell by 59,900 and employment increased by 83,500.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: April 2010 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment To 9.9 Percent In February [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

May 20, 2010

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In April: Up 6.5% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco was up 6.5% on a year-over-year basis last month (428 recorded sales in April ’10 versus 402 sales in April ‘09) but down 14.4% as compared to the month prior (and a sharp decline from March’s 50.6% year-over-year gain).

For context, April sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 841 (2004), 754 (2005), 591 (2006), 568 (2007), and 605 (2008). And from 2004 to 2009 the average March to April sales volume gain was 6.3%. But do keep in mind an incentive to push April closings into May this year.

San Francisco's median sales price in March was $692,500, up 10.2% compared to April ’09 ($628,500) and up 2.6% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in April was down 1.9% on a year-over-year basis and up a nominal 0.2% from the month prior (7,003 recorded sales in April '10 versus 7,139 in April ’09 and 6,992 in March '10), while the recorded median sales price rose 21.7% on a year-over-year basis, down 2.6% compared to the month prior.

Continue to think mix:

The April median’s nearly 22 percent increase over a year ago is largely a reflection of the changes that have occurred in buying patterns across the region. A year ago many more homes being sold were inland foreclosures – homes that were often in less-than-stellar condition, and which had highly motivated sellers. Also a year ago, sales in many high-end communities were extremely sluggish. This spring the re-selling of foreclosures has waned and high-end activity is much stronger, in part because prices have come down, there’s more inventory in some areas and it appears high-end financing has loosened a bit.

Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – made up 29.5 percent of the Bay Area’s resale market last month. That was the lowest since May 2008 and was down from 31.3 percent in March and 46.4 percent in April 2009. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009.

And with respect to financing:

Mortgages above the old conforming loan limit of $417,000 made up nearly 60 percent of all Bay Area home purchase loans before the credit crunch hit in August 2007. Last month $417,000-plus loans made up 31.6 percent.

Use of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) remains far below historically normal levels, too. ARMs made up just 11.1 percent of Bay Area purchase loans last month. While that’s the highest since ARMs were 13.7 percent of purchase loans in September 2008, it’s a fraction of the monthly ARM average of nearly 50 percent since 2000.

Meanwhile, federally-insured FHA loans have kept the entry-level market humming. The low-down-payment loans, which are popular with first-time buyers and some move-up buyers, made up 25.6 percent of Bay Area purchase loans last month. That was down from 25.8 percent a year ago but up from 14.4 percent two years ago.

At the extremes, Marin recorded a 40.8% increase in sales volume (a gain of 71 transactions) on a 12.6% increase in median sales price in March while Solano recorded a 17.6% decline in sales volume (a loss of 126 transactions) on a 12.2% increase in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Mixed results for Bay Area April home sales [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In March: Up 50.6% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ He's It's Back: California’s $10,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Returns [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (23) | (email story)

May 19, 2010

Residential Mortgage Foreclosures Rise In The First Quarter Of 2010

The percentage of U.S. residential mortgages in foreclosure rose 5 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2009 to 4.63 percent in the first quarter of 2010, up 78 basis points on a year-over-year basis. New foreclosure actions rose 3 basis points in the first quarter to 1.23 percent of loans, down 14 basis points versus the first quarter of 2009.

The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate increased 151 basis points for prime fixed loans, 172 basis points for prime ARM loans, 343 basis points for subprime fixed loans, and 244 basis points for subprime ARM loans from the first quarter of 2009. The delinquency rate was 48 basis points lower for FHA loans and 12 basis points for VA loans relative to the same quarter a year ago.

The non-seasonally adjusted foreclosure starts rate increased eight basis points for prime fixed loans, 36 basis points for FHA loans and 17 basis points for VA loans compared to the first quarter of 2009. The rate decreased 22 basis points for prime ARM loans, 10 basis points for subprime fixed loans, and 259 basis points for subprime ARM loans on a year over year basis.

The percentage of seriously delinquent loans (90+ days past due) fell 13 basis points from the fourth quarter to 9.54 percent, up 230 basis points on a year-over-year basis.

∙ Delinquencies, Foreclosure Starts Increase [mbaa.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

April HAMP Highlights: 295,348 Modified (Out Of 3,275,249 Eligible)

The government’s Making Home Affordable Program (HAMP) has resulted in 295,348 active permanent loan modifications through the end of April.

An additional 637,353 trial modifications are in place versus 277,640 cancelled (up 79 percent from 155,173 cancelled at the end of March). 3,275,249 loans are delinquent and eligible.

Once again, roughly 2.82 million U.S. homeowners lost their properties to foreclosure in 2009 while 4.5 million new filings are expected in 2010.

∙ Making Home Affordable Program (HAMP): April Report [financialstability.gov]
∙ TARP's Special Inspector General Takes Aim At HAMP [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

May 18, 2010

U.S. Housing Starts Up But New Permits Decline As Tax Credits Expire

"Work began on more U.S. houses in April than at any time in over a year and wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased, showing the economy is strengthening without stoking inflation" but "a decline in U.S. homebuilding permits last month may indicate a renewed housing slump as demand weakens after the expiration of tax credits..."

∙ Feldstein Says Falling Permits May Signal U.S. Housing Slump [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. Economy: Housing Starts Jump, Wholesale Prices Decrease [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

May 12, 2010

Redfin Reports: April Sales Volume For San Francisco Up 10% YOY

According to a soon to be released new report from Redfin, sales volume of single-family homes and condominiums in San Francisco was up 10 percent in April versus the year prior (376 transaction in April 2009 versus 412 in April 2010) but fell 22 percent versus this past March (525).

Sales volume for San Francisco single-family homes this past April (210) was up 14 percent versus April 2009 (184), but down 15 percent versus this past March (247). Sales volume for condominiums was up 5 percent on a year-over-year basis (192 in April 2009 versus 202 in April 2010) but down 27 percent versus this past March (278).

Sales volume for the greater Bay Area was down 8 percent in April on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis.

According to Redfin agent Gina Pio Roda in San Francisco, this decline in the number of houses sold in April was driven at least in part by California buyers delaying closings to qualify for the state tax credit beginning on May 1.

“Of the eight deals we were working on at the end of April, four pushed to May, just so our clients could save another $10,000,” Ms. Pio Roda said.

Redfin’s new monthly market report draws from both Multiple Listing Services (MLS's) and government records, and as such should reflect both listed and unlisted transactions.

UPDATE (5/14): The full Redfin report for April is now online.

UPDATE (5/14): While the transaction counts above are correct, we should have double checked the math with respect to the month-over-month changes (since corrected with no significant changes in magnitude or direction).

Also, some readers might notice a difference between the "greater Bay Area" stats reported above versus those in Redfin’s full report, we’ve excluded San Benito and Santa Cruz counties from the "Bay Area" stats in order to facilitate an upcoming comparison between Redfin’s report and Dataquick (which doesn’t include those two counties).

∙ He's It's Back: California’s $10,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit Returns [SocketSite]
∙ Bay Area Market Report: Single-Family Home Prices Up 5.5% MoM in April [Redfin]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

May 10, 2010

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 5/10/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 3.3% over the past two weeks versus an average of 4.2% for the same two weeks over the past four years.

Current inventory levels are down 4% on a year-over-year basis but up 16% versus the average of the past four years (up 22% if you exclude 2009) and up 39% as compared to 2006/2007. Inventory of single-family homes in San Francisco is up 4% on a year-over-year basis, up 1% versus 2008 and up 33% versus 2007.

32% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction (almost double what others are reporting) with the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (67) or seeking a short sale (150) up to 14% over the past two weeks (up 11% in the absolute).

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 4/26/10 [SocketSite.com]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite] 

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

May 7, 2010

U.S. Payrolls Increase In April But Outpaced By Those Seeking Pay

Employment in the U.S. increased by 290,000 in April (including 66,000 census workers) but the unemployment rate rose to 9.9 percent as new jobseekers outpaced new jobs.

At the same time the underemployment rate rose from 16.9 to 17.1 percent and the "number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more rose as a percentage of all jobless, to a record 45.9 percent."

∙ Payrolls Jump Most in Four Years on Private Jobs [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

May 6, 2010

QuickLinks: A Rough Day On A Skittish Street

∙ U.S. Stocks Plunge Most in Year as ’Panic Selling’ Grips Market [Bloomberg]
∙ 2430 Scott Street: An Entirely Different Dow Theory In Action? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (32) | (email story)

May 4, 2010

PMI’s Market Risk Index And Real Estate Trends Report: Spring 2010

According to the latest PMI Market Risk Index, the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City MSAD ended 2009 with a 82.8% likelihood of house price declines over the next two years, down from a 91.7% likelihood at the end of 2008. For context, the risk of decline read 30.2% at the end of 2007 and 39.5% at the beginning of 2005.

The likelihood of decline for a few other nearby areas: Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville (98.9%), Oakland-Fremont-Hayward (95.0%), San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara (90.7%).

The risk remains at 99.9% for the Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall MSAD while the New York-White Plains-Wayne MSAD weighs in at 93.6% (up from 7% at the end of 2007).

Keep in mind the PMI Market Risk Index is tied to the OFHEO house price index which excludes jumbo loans and the large portion of subprime and Alt-A loans that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don’t participate in.

∙ PMI Economic And Real Estate Trends: 2nd Quarter 2010 [PMI]
∙ PMI’s Market Risk Index And Real Estate Trends Report: Spring 2008 [SocketSite]
· Economic And Real Estate Trends: Spring 2005 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (26) | (email story)

Pending U.S. Home Sales Index Up 5.3 Percent In March

The National Association of Realtors’ U.S. Pending Home Sales Index hit 102.9 in March, up 5.3 percent from February (97.7) and up 21.1 percent on a year-over-year basis (85.0 in March 2009). An index of 100 equals the average level of contract activity in 2001.

In the West the index rose 1.9 percent to 99.9 in March, up 8.8 percent year-over-year.

With Federal tax credits having expired at the end of last month we expect to see another bump in the April numbers, but then all bets are off for May.

∙ Pending Home Sales on an Upswing [realtor.org]
∙ Pending U.S. Home Sales Inch Up, Closed San Francisco Sales Fall [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

April 27, 2010

February Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco Falls Across All Price Tiers

According to the February 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.7% from January ’10 to February '10, down 38.3% from a peak in May 2006 but up 11.9% year-over-year.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.7% from January to February (the fourth consecutive slide) and remain down 30.7% from a peak in June 2006 (up 1.4% year-over-year).

San Diego was the only market that continued to show improvement in home prices between January and February. All other metros and the two composites showed declines from their January levels, some of these being fairly significant, with 12 of the MSAs falling by at least 1.0% during the month. Six of the MSAs – Charlotte, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa – posted new index lows as measured in the current housing cycle where, depending on the market, we saw peaks in 2006 and 2007. The two latest markets to post new index lows, New York and Portland, showed peak-to-February declines of -21% and -23.0%, respectively.

Charlotte and Cleveland have shown seven consecutive months of negative monthly returns. Atlanta, Boston, Denver, New York and Tampa are not far behind, with six consecutive negative prints. Six of the 20 MSAs – Atlanta, Denver, Las Vegas, San Diego, Seattle and Washington DC – showed some improvement in monthly returns compared to the prior month.

On a month-over-month basis, and for the first time since March 2009, prices fell across all three price tiers for single-family homes in the San Francisco MSA.

The bottom third (under $320,889 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.4% from January to February (up 5.3% YOY); the middle third fell 0.3% from January to February (up 6.4% YOY); and the top third (over $584,331 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.5% from January to February (up 2.7% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are just below September 2000 levels having fallen 57% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around June 2002 levels having fallen 37% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third slipped back below February 2004 levels having fallen 26% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 2.6% from January ’10 to February '10, down 3.0% on a year-over-year basis and down 30.5% from an December 2005 high.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Prices Mixed in February 2010 [standardandpoors.com]
∙ January Case-Shiller Index: Bottom Tier Up, Middle And Top Tiers Fall [SocketSite] 

Posted by socketadmin at 7:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (25) | (email story)

April 26, 2010

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 4/26/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 3.8% over the past two weeks versus an average of 5.8% for the same two weeks over the past four years.

Current inventory levels are down 5% on a year-over-year basis but up 16% versus the average of the past four years (up 23% if you exclude 2009) and up 46% as compared to 2006/2007. Inventory of single-family homes in San Francisco is up 2% on a year-over-year basis, up 2% versus 2008 and up 34% versus 2007 (we don't have the split for 2006).

31% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction (almost double what others are reporting) with the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (58) or seeking a short sale (138) holding steady at 13% over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 4/12/10 [SocketSite.com]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite] 

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

April 23, 2010

U.S. New Home Sales Up 13% YOY As Credits Set To Expire

Purchases of new homes in the U.S. increased 27 percent from February to March to an annual pace of 411,000. That’s up 13 percent on a year-over-year basis (365,000 in March 2009) with Federal tax credits expiring at the end of this month.

For context, the pace of new home sales in the U.S. peaked at 1,389,000 in July 2005.

∙ A Stormy February For U.S. New Home Sales (But Sunny In The West) [SocketSite]
∙ Sales of New Homes in U.S. Climb by Most Since 1963 [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales Down 31% YOY (West Shows Seasonality) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (23) | (email story)

April 22, 2010

Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Up 6.8 Percent In March

The pace of existing U.S. home sales "climbed 6.8 percent [from February] to a 5.35 million annual rate" in March, the first increase in four months (think and thank both seasonality and tax credits).

Once again, 5.16 million previously owned homes sold in 2009 (4.91 million in 2008).

∙ Tax Credit Helping Drive Sales of Existing Houses [Bloomberg]
∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Struggling To Find A Second Wind [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

April 21, 2010

Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Up 10.9% QOQ (Up 91.1% YOY)

Bay Area Notices of Default (NODs) in the first quarter of 2010 fell 30.5% on a year-over-year basis, down 5.8% in San Francisco proper (from 569 to 536). NOD activity in San Francisco rose 15.3% from the fourth quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2010 (versus an 88.4% gain the year prior).

Actual Bay Area foreclosures in the first quarter rose 6.1% on a year-over-year basis (from 6,050 to 6,417) with Contra Costa (up 6.0% to 1,842), Alameda (up 4.2% to 1,266) and Santa Clara (down 7.6% to 1,069) leading the way with respect to volume.

First quarter recorded foreclosures in San Francisco totaled 193, up 91.1% on a year-over-year basis and up 10.9% (19 homes) from the fourth quarter 2009 versus a 10% drop from the fourth quarter in 2008 to the first quarter in 2009 (think moratoriums).

∙ California Foreclosure Activity Declines Again [DQNews]
∙ Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Down 2.8% QOQ (Up 55.4% YOY) [SocketSite] 

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (72) | (email story)

April 15, 2010

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In March: Up 50.6% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco was up 50.6% on a year-over-year basis last month (500 recorded sales in March ’10 versus 332 sales in March ‘09) and up 52.9% as compared to the month prior.

For context, March sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 749 (2004), 731 (2005), 631 (2006), 640 (2007), and 508 (2008). And from 2004 to 2009 the average February to March sales volume gain was 39.3%.

San Francisco's median sales price in March was $675,000, up 11.0% compared to March ’09 ($608,000) and up 7.6% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in March was up 10.5% on a year-over-year basis and up 40.2% from the month prior (6,992 recorded sales in March '10 versus 6,325 in March ’09 and 4,987 in February '10), while the recorded median sales price rose 31.0% on a year-over-year basis, up 7.3% compared to the month prior. Continue to think mix (and seasonality).

Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – made up 31.7 percent of the resale market last month. That was down from 36.3 percent in February and down from 50.2 percent in March 2009. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52 percent in February 2009.

As sales of lower-cost foreclosures have tapered off over the past year, sales in many mid-to high-priced neighborhoods have picked up, helping to explain why the median sale price has posted double-digit annual gains of late. Last month 34.6 percent of the homes sold in the Bay Area were priced $500,000 or above, up from 32.6 percent in February and 24.1 percent a year ago. However, $500,000-plus sales still lag their five-year monthly average of 53.3 percent of all sales and their 10-year average of 46.0 percent.

Within the Bay Area, San Francisco recorded the greatest year-over-year increase in March sales volume while Contra Costa recorded a 13.8% decline (a loss of 281 transactions) on a 25.0% increase in median sales price. Only Napa county recorded a year-over-year decrease in median sales price (-3.4%).

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area March home sales and median price rise [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In February: Up 20.2% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (92) | (email story)

April 12, 2010

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 4/12/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 3.4% over the past two weeks versus an average of 0.3% for the same two weeks over the past four years.

Current inventory levels are down 8% on a year-over-year basis but up 17% versus the average of the past four years (up 26% if you exclude 2009) and up 58% as compared to 2006. Inventory of single-family homes in San Francisco is down 7% on a year-over-year basis but up 1% versus 2008 and up 21% versus 2007 (we don't have the split for 2006).

30% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction with the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (63) or seeking a short sale (136) holding steady at 13% over the past two weeks (up 8% in absolute terms).

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 3/29/10 [SocketSite.com]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (58) | (email story)

March 31, 2010

Privately Insured Cures Outpace Defaults For First Time Since 2006

According to Mortgage Insurance Companies of America (MICA), this past February privately insured delinquent homeowner cures (80,758) outpaced new defaults (68,675) in the U.S. for the first time since March 2006.

Keep in mind that over the past year new defaults by homeowners with private mortgage insurance have outpaced cures 1,063,114 to 709,446.

Also of note, 73,180 applications for private mortgage insurance were received in February 2009 with 56,210 polices issued, this past February only 20,128 applications were submitted with 14,924 policies issued.

∙ MICA February 2010 Statistical Report [privatemi.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

March 30, 2010

January Case-Shiller Index: Bottom Tier Up, Middle And Top Tiers Fall

According to the January 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.6% from December ’09 to January '10, up 9.0% year-over-year for the third year-over-year gain since September 2006 but down 37.9% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell a nominal 0.2% from December to January (the third consecutive slide) and remain down 30.2% from a peak in June 2006 (flat year-over-year).

Los Angeles and San Diego showed slight improvements in actual index levels from the previous month to the current month. All other metros and the two composites showed a slight drop from their December 2009 levels. Of that, four markets – Charlotte, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa – posted new index lows as measured by the current housing cycle where, depending on the market, we saw peaks in 2006 and 2007. The peak-to-current declines for these MSAs are -13.8%, -55.8%, -24.6% and -42.0%, respectively.

On a relative basis, Washington DC, Los Angeles and New York have held up the most, with each of those markets still 70% above their January 2000 levels. Las Vegas, which once stood 135% above its January 2000 level, is now showing price increases about 4% above that same level. Detroit remains that one market whose average value is below 2000, approximately 28% below that value.

On a month-over-month basis, San Francisco MSA single-family home prices rose for the bottom price tier but fell across the middle and top tiers.

The bottom third (under $324,055 at the time of acquisition) gained 0.6% from December to January (up 1.9% YOY); the middle third fell 1.2% from December to January (up 3.6% YOY); and the top third (over $593,499 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.9% from December to January (flat YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back to September 2000 levels having fallen 57% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around June 2002 levels having fallen 36% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third slipped back to February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.8% from December ’09 to January '10, down 1.4% on a year-over-year basis and down 28.7% from an December 2005 high.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Prices in the New Year Continue the Trend Set in Late 2009 [
∙ December Case-Shiller Index: Bottom Tier Up, Nominal Slips At Top [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (68) | (email story)

March 29, 2010

Big Money Returns To Broadway (With Roots Beyond Real Estate)

As a plugged-in reader notes, the sale of 2342 Broadway closed escrow this past Friday with a reported contract price of $13,500,000 (asking $14,000,000).

The sale of the fully remodeled (and rather viewtastic) home represents the most expensive listed* single-family home sale in San Francisco since the middle of 2008 (displacing the $12,000,000 sale of 2849 Pacific at the end of 2009).

Thank a rebounding market (but in this case we’re not referring to real estate).

*Note: As plugged-in people know, 300 Sea Cliff sold for $18,000,000 in October of 2009 but it wasn’t officially listed at the time.

∙ 2342 Broadway Returns Anew, "Green," And Asking $14,000,000 [SocketSite]
∙ The One With The Twelve On It: 2849 Pacific Price-ish Scoop [SocketSite]
∙ The Captain’s House Goes For To A Cruise? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 3/29/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 6% over the past two weeks versus an average of 4% for the same two weeks over the past four years.

Current inventory levels are down 15% on a year-over-year basis but up 14% versus the average of the past four years (up 24% if you exclude 2009) and up 46% as compared to 2006. Inventory of single-family homes in San Francisco is down 14% on a year-over-year basis but up 49% versus 2007 (even versus 2008, we don't have the split for 2006).

29% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction with the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (60) or seeking a short sale (124) holding steady at 13% over the past two weeks (up 4% in absolute terms).

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 3/15/10 [SocketSite.com]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

March 26, 2010

San Francisco County Unemployment To 9.9 Percent In February

Preliminary February labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.9%, 8.4% and 9.4% respectively, down 0.4 percentage points in San Francisco, 0.5 percentage points in Marin, and 0.3 percentage points in San Mateo.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 1,900 (from 46,900 to 45,000) in February and the number of employed increased by 2,300 (from 407,700 to 410,000) as the labor force increased by 400 (from 454,600 to 455,000).

Overall California unemployment fell by 0.4 percentage points to 12.8% as the labor force increased by 68,800 and employment increased by 134,000.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: February 2010 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 10.3 Percent In January [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

March 24, 2010

Bank Of America’s New Equity Principal Forgiveness Program

Call it anything but altruistic, but Bank of America has announced a new focus on principal forgiveness – versus interest rate reductions – for its portfolio of highest risk loans.

From the bank this morning:

"The centerpiece...is a program of earned principal forgiveness that addresses severely underwater mortgages with some of the highest rates of delinquency – specifically subprime loans, Pay-Option ARMs and prime two-year hybrid ARMs that are 60 days or more delinquent with a principal balance of 120 percent or more," said Barbara Desoer, president of Bank of America Home Loans.”

“With implementation...Bank of America will make principal reduction the initial consideration toward reaching the HAMP's target for an affordable payment equal to 31 percent of household income when modifying qualifying subprime, Pay-Option ARM and prime two-year hybrid ARM loans that are also eligible for NHRP. An interest rate reduction and other steps would then be considered, if additional savings are necessary to reach the targeted payment.”

The approach: "An interest-free forbearance of principal that the homeowner can turn into forgiven principal over five years resulting in a maximum 30 percent decrease in the loan principal balance to as low as [but not below] 100 percent LTV."

There's nothing quite like continuing to make payments on a property knowing that in five years you won't have accrued any equity. But hey, principal forgiveness sure sounds good.

∙ Bank of America Introduces Earned Principal Forgiveness [bankofamerica.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (69) | (email story)

A Stormy February For U.S. New Home Sales (But Sunny In The West)

"Sales of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell [2.2 percent] in February to a record low [annual pace of 308,000] as blizzards, unemployment and foreclosures depressed the market."

"[P]urchases dropped in three of four U.S. regions last month, those most likely to have been influenced by the winter storms. Purchases fell 20 percent in the Northeast, 18 percent in the Midwest and 4.6 percent in the South, which includes the Washington area.

Demand climbed 21 percent in the West, pushing the year- over-year increase in that region up to 35 percent, the biggest 12-month jump since March 2004."

∙ Sales of New U.S. Homes Dropped to Lowest on Record [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

March 23, 2010

Existing U.S. Home Sales Struggling To Find A Second Wind

While a standard seasonality bump from January to February should be kicking up the pace of existing U.S. home sales, "purchases dropped 0.6 percent to a 5.02 million annual rate" while inventory increased 9.5 percent to 3.59 million listed homes for sale last month.

Once again, 5.16 million previously owned homes sold in 2009 (4.91 million in 2008).

∙ U.S. Previously Owned Home Sales Sucking A Little More Wind [SocketSite]
∙ Sales of Existing Homes Decrease, Supply Climbs [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (23) | (email story)

March 19, 2010

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In February: Up 20.2% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco was up 20.2% on a year-over-year basis last month (327 recorded sales in February ’10 versus 272 sales in February ‘09) and up 5.1% compared to the month prior.

For context, February sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 537 (2004), 526 (2005), 429 (2006), 375 (2007), and 431 (2008) while the average January to February sales volume gain was 14% from 2004 to 2009.

San Francisco's median sales price in February was $627,500, down 2.0% compared to February ’10 ($640,000) and down a nominal 0.2% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in February was down 0.9% on a year-over-year basis but up 2.8% from the month prior (4,987 recorded sales in February '10 versus 5,032 in February ’09 and 4,853 in January '10), while the recorded median sales price rose 20.0% on a year-over-year basis, up 1.1% compared to the month prior. Continue to think mix (and seasonality).

Last month’s median rose 20 percent above February 2009 largely because a year ago low-cost foreclosures were far more plentiful, lower-cost inland areas represented a substantially larger portion of total sales, and high-end sales were very sluggish. That made for an unusually low February 2009 median of $295,000.

Sales over $500,000 made up 31.9 percent of all transactions last month, compared with 23.6 percent a year ago. High-end sales have risen in part because more distress has crept into that segment of the market, creating more motivated sellers. Other sellers have simply given up on holding out for yesterday’s higher prices, which were supported by what was then a relative abundance of financing, some quite creative, for high-end homes.

At the extremes, Marin recorded a 37.8% year-over-year increase in February sales volume (a gain of 42 transactions) on a 7.3% increase in median sales price, while Solano recorded a 19.2% decline in sales volume (a loss of 107 transactions) on a 6.9% increase in median sales price. Only San Francisco and Napa (0.8%) counties recorded year-over-year decreases in their median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area home sales down slightly from last year, median sale price rises [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In January: Up 35.8% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (56) | (email story)

March 18, 2010

Relaxing BMR Rules At Mission Walk To Compete With Bank-Owned

Plugged-in people should have seen this coming (others simply scoffed at our noting reductions on BMR re-sales and comparisons of bank-owned and BMR price points).

From the Examiner today:

Purchasing rules that govern scores of San Francisco Redevelopment Agency condos are being relaxed to help sell the units in a battered real estate market.

“We’ve never had this much inventory on the market,” Redevelopment Agency Executive Director Fred Blackwell said.

Agency commissioners this week raised the income cap for buyers to qualify for some of the units at Mission Walk — a 131-unit, two-building project completed on Mission Bay’s Berry Street in July — from those earning 100 percent of The City’s median income to those earning 120 percent.

“The price points, when you look at foreclosures and look at our units, are pretty much the same,” he said. “What people are doing, it seems, is choosing to go with the foreclosures because the foreclosures don’t have the same kind of income restrictions or equity restrictions.”

Income restrictions have already been relaxed for the Bay Oaks development at 4800 Third Street and are expected to be relaxed for the 125-unit project at 5600 Third Street.

The Redevelopment Agency might also begin offering down-payment assistance for buyers in either of the two Third Street developments.

∙ Reductions Reach Below Market Rate Units On Ora Way (And Others) [SocketSite]
∙ Buy A BMR For $10K $25K More Than Bank-Owned At Candlestick Point [SocketSite]
∙ Changing rules to spur homebuying [San Francisco Examiner]
∙ Mission Walk (330/335 Berry) Phase 2 Inventory/Application Scoop [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (39) | (email story)

March 17, 2010

San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 10.3 Percent In January

Preliminary January labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 10.3%, 8.9% and 9.7% respectively, up 1.0 percentage points in San Francisco, 0.7 percentage points in Marin, and 0.8 percentage points in San Mateo.

On a revised basis, the number of unemployed in San Francisco increased by 4,500 (from 42,400 to 46,900) in January and the number of employed fell by 2,700 (from 410,400 to 407,700) as the labor force increased by 1,800 (from 452,800 to 454,600).

Overall California unemployment rose by a full percentage point to 13.2% as the labor force increased by 90,600 while employment fell by 106,800.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: January 201o (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.4 Percent In December [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

March 15, 2010

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 3/15/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco climbed 11% over the past two weeks versus an average of 5% for the same two weeks over the past four years.

Current inventory levels are down 17% on a year-over-year basis but up 12% versus the average of the past four years (up 23% if you exclude 2009) and up 48% as compared to 2006. Inventory of single-family homes in San Francisco is down 16% on a year-over-year basis but up 8% versus 2007 (we don’t have the breakdown for 2006).

28% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction with the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (60) or seeking a short sale (117) falling one point to 13% over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 3/01/10 [SocketSite.com]
∙ Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (33) | (email story)

March 11, 2010

Will Pent-Up Demand Outstrip Pent-Up Supply?

From a local agent’s recent email blast:

The market has been down for so long that the inventory has dwindled...too many shoppers for too few homes...because prospective sellers have been waiting for prices to go back up. But when they see the buyer surge this Spring, you can bet that the inventory is going to build up fast....and prices are going to follow.

Keep in mind that while listed inventory is currently running 18 percent lower on a year over year basis (down from 25 percent four weeks ago), it’s dead even compared to 2008 and up 48 percent as compared to 2007. And with respect to listed sales, while the early February count (250-ish) is up 27 percent versus 2009, it’s down 19 percent versus 2008 and down 34 percent versus 2007.

In terms of suggesting prices will surge along with supply, we’ll let you work that one out.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 3/01/10 [SocketSite]
∙ Early February Listed Sales Count For San Francisco: Down 35-40% [SocketSite 3/09]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (192) | (email story)

March 8, 2010

Napa "Gentlemen" Growers Getting Squeezed Like A Grape

"In California’s Napa Valley, producer of the most expensive U.S. wines, 2010 may be a vintage year for foreclosures as the industry is squeezed by falling land values [down 15% since 2007] and a consumer shift to cheaper brands."

∙ Vineyard Defaults Surge as Lost Land Values Undermine Napa Wine [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

Measuring A Rising Bay Area Tide

From the Chronicle:

In the Bay Area, First American shows the Vallejo-Fairfield metropolitan market (essentially Solano County) with 61 percent of mortgage holders underwater. The next-highest concentration - but the biggest in numbers - is the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward metro area (Alameda and Contra Costa counties), where 35 percent of mortgage holders, or 192,726 households, have negative equity.

The aggregate of San Francisco, San Mateo, and Marin counties weighs in at 10.4 percent (33,861) with 2.6 percent (8,481) underwater by more than 25 percent.

∙ Strategic defaults on homes on the rise [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (61) | (email story)

March 5, 2010

When Up Is Down (U.S. Unemployment Holds, Underemployment Up)

While the market bounces on a less than forecast (36,000) drop in U.S. payrolls and the headline unemployment rate held steady at 9.7 percent, the underemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 16.8 percent in February (from 16.5 percent the month prior).

∙ Payrolls in U.S. Fell 36,000; Unemployment at 9.7% [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

March 4, 2010

30-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below Five

"The rate for 30-year fixed U.S. home loans fell to 4.97 percent for the week ended today from 5.05 percent, mortgage finance company Freddie Mac said in a statement. The average 15- year rate was 4.33 percent..."

∙ Mortgage Rates on 30-Year U.S. Loans Fall to 4.97% [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

Bay Area (Small) Business Confidence Ticks Up

From the Chronicle:

The numbers aren't huge, according to the Bay Area Council's quarterly Business Confidence Survey - just 20 percent of the 498 senior executives responding said they plan new hires in the next six months - but it's better than another kick in the teeth.

The number of companies expecting layoffs - 17 percent - is certainly less grim than the business and public policy group's previous survey, which had 42 percent projecting layoffs, with just 10 percent looking at new hires.

This time around, 60 percent of executives in the wholesale trade said they would be hiring this spring and summer. Business owners in the leisure and hospitality sectors also forecast a net plus, or at least no change, in their workforces.

That being said, "57 percent of [large company] CEOs surveyed expect to see layoffs, compared with 8 percent posting job openings," so keep protecting those teeth.

∙ Bay Area Council: More hiring than laying off [SFGate]
∙ Bay Area Business Confidence Up (Along With Pink Slips) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

March 1, 2010

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 3/01/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco is up 10% over the past two weeks. Current inventory levels are down 19% on a year-over-year basis, up 34% as compared to 2006, and up 8% versus the average of the past four years for this time of year (up 19% if you exclude 2009).

27% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction with the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (59) or seeking a short sale (115) falling to 14% on an absolute drop of 2% (4 listings) over the past two weeks.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 2/16/10 [SocketSite.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (53) | (email story)

February 26, 2010

U.S. Previously Owned Home Sales Sucking A Little More Wind

Once again, our headline for November’s existing U.S. home sales gain of 7.4 percent: A Sprinter's Or Marathoner's Pace?

In December the pace of U.S. existing home sales fell 17 percent. And in January the pace fell 7.2 percent, "the second-largest decline ever, to an annual pace of 5.05 million, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington."

In 2009 5.16 million previously owned homes sold, 4.91 million in 2008.

∙ A Sprinter's Or Marathoner's Pace? [SocketSite]
∙ Will Our Sprinter Get A Second Wind? [SocketSite]
∙ Sales of Previously Owned Homes Fell 7.2% in January [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (46) | (email story)

February 24, 2010

Surprise, Surprise Or Not So Much So?

"Sales of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in January to [an annual pace of 309,000] the lowest level on record, a sign that an extension of a government tax credit may not be enough to rekindle demand....Purchases of new homes have declined from an all-time high of 1.39 million reached in July 2005. They have declined 6.1 percent from January 2009."

∙ U.S. Economy: New-Home Sales Decline to Record Low [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

San Francisco’s Q4 2009 Housing Pipeline Report

According to the San Francisco Planning Department’s Q4 2009 Pipeline Report, San Francisco's current big picture (click to enlarge) housing pipeline is as so:

∙ 128 projects with 1,320 housing units are currently under construction
∙ 190 projects representing 2,070 units have received a building permit
∙ 328 projects representing 4,620 units have applied for a building permit
∙ 119 projects representing 8,220 units have been approved by the Planning Department
∙ 108 projects representing 30,370 units have filed for Planning Department approval

Overall pipeline residential units currently total 46,600, down from 54,790 in the second quarter of 2009, but up from 30,002 in the first quarter of 2007. Of course the share of those under construction (4,978 in 2007) has shifted and applications for proposed new units have plummeted over the past two years.

∙ San Francisco Pipeline Report: Q4 2009 [sf-planning.org]
∙ San Francisco’s Housing Pipeline And 2009 Housing Element Report [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

February 23, 2010

December Case-Shiller Index: Bottom Tier Up, Nominal Slips At Top

According to the December 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.2% from November ’09 to December '09, up 4.8% year-over-year for the second year-over-year gain since September 2006 but still down 37.5% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell a nominal 0.2% from November to December (the second slide in seven months) and remain down 30.1% from a peak in June 2006 (down 2.5% year-over-year).

Looking at the monthly statistics, 15 of the 20 metro areas showed a decline in December over November, with Chicago posting the sharpest decline, down 1.6%. Las Vegas finally posted its first positive print in more than three years, with +0.2%. The Southwest continues to be a bright spot, with an Diego posting its eighth consecutive monthly increase, and Los Angeles and Phoenix both posting their seventh.

Three of the markets – Charlotte, Seattle and Tampa – posted new low index levels as measured by the past four years. In other words, any gains they might have seen in recent months have been erased and December is now considered their current trough value.

On a month-over-month basis, San Francisco MSA single-family home prices rose across the bottom price tier but slipped nominally at the top.

The bottom third (under $325,729 at the time of acquisition) gained 1.7% from November to December (down 3.6% YOY); the middle third fell 0.1% from November to December (up 1.7% YOY); and the top third (over $601,121 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.3% from November to December (down 3.6% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back to August 2000 levels having fallen 57% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back to June 2002 levels having fallen 36% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third remains at March 2004 levels having fallen 24% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA were unchanged from November ’09 to December '09, down 5.6% on a year-over-year basis and down 27.4% from an December 2005 high.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Prices Continue to Send Mixed Messages as 2009 Comes to a Close [S&P]
∙ November Case-Shiller Index: Up For Bottom Tiers But Flat At The Top [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (55) | (email story)

Coming Soon: December Case-Shiller For San Francisco

The Standard & Poor’s server is either down or sporadically responding which has been thwarting our attempts to bring you San Francisco’s detailed December Case-Shiller data for December since six this morning.

UPDATE: We’ve broken through to the server: December Case-Shiller Index: Bottom Tier Up, Nominal Slips At Top.

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | (email story)

February 19, 2010

Selling At A Loss In An Attempt To Make A Profit (Elsewhere)

Purchased for $245 million in 2005, the 730,000-square-foot south financial district twin-tower building at 303 Second Street is returning to the market with expectations of a $220 million sale price for the 90 percent leased building.

The key quote from TMG Partners CEO Michael Covarrubias:

“It’s a matter of what their basis is and what their alternative capital opportunities are,” said Covarrubias. “These buildings (like 303 Second St.) are not going to appreciate rapidly and there may be an opportunity to redeploy it and buy other distressed assets.”

Think that thinking might be playing a role in the recent return of previously unsold new construction condo units as well? More on this next week.

∙ S.F. building owners sell the best, keep the rest [Business Times]
∙ 303 Second Street [303second.com]
∙ Artani (818 Van Ness) Scoop Redux: Unsuspending Sales [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

February 18, 2010

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In January: Up 35.8% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco was up 35.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (311 recorded sales in January ’10 versus 229 sales in January ‘09) but down 37.7% compared to the month prior.

For context, January sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2008 were 558 (2004), 469 (2005), 369 (2006), 402 (2007), and 293 (2008) while the average December to January sales volume drop from 2004 to 2009 was 34.1%.

San Francisco's median sales price in January was $629,000, up 11.9% compared to January ’09 ($562,000) but down 3.2% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in January was down 3.9% on a year-over-year basis and down 38.0% from the month prior (4,853 recorded sales in January '10 versus 5,050 in January ’09 and 7,828 in December '09), while the recorded median sales price rose 16.7% on a year-over-year basis, down 7.9% compared to the month prior. Continue to think mix (and seasonality).

Last month’s median dipped more sharply from December as the portion of sales involving foreclosures and homes in lower-cost areas rose relative to December. However, the median remained higher than in January 2009 because a year ago low-cost foreclosures were far more plentiful, lower-cost inland areas represented a substantially larger portion of total sales, and high-end sales were extremely slow. All of that made for an unusually low January 2009 median of $300,000.

Financing has flowed more freely for low- to mid-priced homes. Federally-insured, low-down-payment FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, made up 25.6 percent of Bay Area purchase loans last month. That was up from 25.1 percent in December, 24.7 percent a year ago and 0.7 percent two years ago.

While San Francisco recorded the greatest Bay Area year-over-year increase in January sales volume (a gain of 82 transactions), Sonoma recorded a 21.2% decline in sales volume (a loss of 90 transactions) on a 8.4% increase in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area home sales fall; median price up YOY, down from December [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In December: Up 36.3% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ FHA To Tighten Its Belt, But With Its Fly Wide Open? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

Overshadowing The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index's Recent Rise

"In summer 2009, the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose for the first time in virtually two years. Since May 2009, the index has risen by over 3%, suggesting that the necessary correction to U.S. residential home prices is nearing an end.

However, in Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' view, the mortgage crisis may be far from over. The overhang of homes heading toward liquidation suggests more delinquencies and lower home prices are to come."

∙ The Shadow Inventory Of Troubled Mortgages Could Undo U.S. Housing Price Gains [S&P]
∙ November Case-Shiller Index: Up For Bottom Tiers But Flat At The Top [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (36) | (email story)

February 16, 2010

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 2/16/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco is up 9.1% over the past two weeks, once again driven by both new and refreshed listings. Current inventory levels are down 25.6% on a year-over-year basis, up 36.2% as compared to 2006, and up 3% versus the average of the past four years for this time of year (up 16% if you exclude 2009).

27% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (69) or seeking a short sale (109) remains at 16% (the absolute number increased by 11% over the past two weeks).

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 2/01/10 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (41) | (email story)

February 11, 2010

A Declining Decade For San Francisco Office Occupancy Rates

According to The Corporate Real Estate Letter, San Francisco ended 2009 with 70,931,839 square feet of occupied office space for a vacancy rate of 15.6% versus 80,252,228 occupied square feet and a vacancy rate of 3.6% at the beginning of the year 2000.

∙ The Corporate Real Estate Letter [naibtcommercial.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

February 8, 2010

More Mortgage "Mumbo" Jumbo: Serious Delinquencies Increase

"U.S. prime jumbo mortgages at least 60 days late backing securities reached 9.6 percent in January from 9.2 percent in December, the 32nd straight increase for "serious delinquencies"...[but the] share of borrowers current the previous month and that then turned delinquent fell to 1.2 percent in the month covered by January bond reports, down from 1.3 percent as of December reports, Fitch said. The jumbo sector of the non-agency market was the only one in which so-called roll rates -- or the amount of loans turning delinquent -- rose from a year ago, according to the statement."

∙ Jumbo Mortgage ‘Serious Delinquencies’ Rise to 9.6% [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (41) | (email story)

February 5, 2010

U.S. Unemployment Rate Declines To 9.7% (Yes, "Unexpectedly")

Last week initial jobless applications in the U.S. increased to 480,000 and those receiving extended benefits increased by about 242,000 (4%). Luckily the headline U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 9.7% in January.

∙ Perhaps At Some Point The "Unexpected" Shouldn't Be Quite So [SocketSite]
∙ Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Declines to 9.7% [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

Symphony Towers Moves To Sell Twenty-Six Leased Leftover Units

While we broke the news last week with respect to Artani (818 Van Ness) unsuspending their sales efforts, apparently Symphony Towers is doing the same for 26 (out of 130) units they ended up leasing out over a year ago.

∙ Artani (818 Van Ness) Scoop Redux: Unsuspending Sales [SocketSite]
∙ Developers give condos second shot [Business Times]
∙ Symphony Towers Transitions To Their Second Movement (Rentals) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (23) | (email story)

February 4, 2010

[Accepting Applications For Headline, Prince References Preferred]

Five months ago the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed above ten thousand mark - a mark it first achieved in 1999 - for the first time in a year. Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed below the ten thousand mark for the first time in three months.

∙ Party Like It’s 1999: Dow Crosses 10,000 For The First Time In A Year [SocketSite]
∙ Perhaps At Some Point The "Unexpected" Shouldn't Be Quite So [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

Perhaps At Some Point The "Unexpected" Shouldn't Be Quite So

"Initial [U.S.] jobless applications increased to 480,000 in the week ended Jan. 30, the most in seven weeks, from 472,000 the prior week.... The number of people receiving unemployment insurance was little changed [at 4.6 million] and those receiving extended benefits increased [by about 242,000 to 5.86 million]."

∙ Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Climbed [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

February 1, 2010

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 2/01/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco is up 29% over the past four weeks driven by both new and refreshed listings. Current inventory levels are down 23% on a year-over-year basis, up 27% as compared to 2006, and right in line (as in within one listing) with the average of the past four years for this time of year.

26% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (66) or seeking a short sale (95) has fallen to 16% (the absolute number increased by 5%).

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 1/04/10 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (104) | (email story)

January 27, 2010

Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Down 2.8% QOQ (Up 55.4% YOY)

Bay Area Notices of Default (NODs) in the fourth quarter of 2009 rose 21.8% on a year-over-year basis, up 54% in San Francisco proper (from 302 to 465). NOD activity in San Francisco fell 23.4% from the third to fourth quarter (versus a 14.4% decline in 2008).

Actual Bay Area foreclosures in the fourth quarter fell 2.8% on a year-over-year basis (from 7,677 to 7,464) with Contra Costa (down 6.9% to 2,151), Alameda (down 6.2% to 1,576) and Santa Clara (down 7.6% to 1,244) leading the way with respect to volume.

Fourth quarter recorded foreclosures in San Francisco totaled 174, up 55.4% on a year-over-year basis but down 2.8% (5 homes) from the third quarter 2009 and versus a 42% drop from the third to fourth quarter in 2008 (think moratoriums).

∙ Another Drop in California Mortgage Defaults [DQNews]
∙ Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Up 31.6% QOQ (Down 6.8% YOY) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (33) | (email story)

Will Our Sprinter Get A Second Wind?

Our headline for November’s existing U.S. home sales gain of 7.4 percent: A Sprinter's Or Marathoner's Pace? In December the pace of U.S. existing home sales fell 17 percent.

According to the National Association of Realtors, the decline "was the biggest since records began in 1968."

At the same time, the pace of new home sales in the U.S. (a leading indicator) declined 7.6 percent in December. "[F]or all of 2009, sales dropped 23 percent to 374,000, the lowest level since records began in 1963."

∙ A Sprinter's Or Marathoner's Pace? [SocketSite]
∙ Sales of U.S. New Homes Unexpectedly Fell in December [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

January 26, 2010

November Case-Shiller Index: Up For Bottom Tiers But Flat At The Top

According to the November 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA gained 0.6% from October ’09 to November '09, up 1.0% year-over-year and the first year-over-year gain since September 2006, but still down 37.4% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell a nominal 0.2% from October to November (the first slide in seven months) and remain down 30.0% from a peak in June 2006 (down 4.6% year-over-year).

"While we continue to see broad improvement in home prices as measured by the annual rate, the latest data show a far more mixed picture when you look at other details." says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.

"Only five of the markets saw price increases in November versus October. What is more interesting is that four of the markets – Charlotte, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa – posted new low index levels as measured by the past four years. In other words, any gains they might have seen in recent months have been erased and November is now considered their current trough value.

On the flip side, there are still some markets that continue to improve month-over-month. Los Angeles, Phoenix, San Diego and San Francisco have seen prices increase for at least six consecutive months.

On a month-over-month basis, San Francisco MSA single-family home prices rose across the bottom two price tiers but was unchanged at the top.

The bottom third (under $323,227 at the time of acquisition) gained 1.3% from October to November (down 8.8% YOY); the middle third gained 1.2% from October to November (down 0.8% YOY); and the top third (over $600,572 at the time of acquisition) was unchanged from October to November (down 6.5% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back to August 2000 levels having fallen 58% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back to June 2002 levels having fallen 36% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third remains at March 2004 levels having fallen 24% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA gained 0.3% from October ’09 to November '09, down 6.9% on a year-over-year basis and down 27.3% from an November 2005 high.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Mixed Messages in the Data According to the November S&P/Case-Shiller [S&P]
∙ October Case-Shiller: Up For SF MSA Houses, Down For Condos [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (64) | (email story)

January 22, 2010

San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.4 Percent In December

Preliminary December labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.4%, 7.8% and 8.6% respectively, down 0.3 percentage points in San Francisco and San Mateo and down 0.2 percentage points in Marin.

While the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 1400 (from 43,100 to 41,700) in December, the number of employed fell by 1,400 (from 401,500 to 400,100) as the labor force contracted by 2,800 (from 444,600 to 441,800).

Overall California unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points to 12.1% as the labor force contracted by 118,900 (1%).

UPDATE: A piece of the bigger picture via Bloomberg:

Employment dropped in 39 U.S. states in December, seven more than in the prior month, indicating job losses were widespread.

Payrolls in California showed the biggest decline, falling by 38,800 last month, according to figures issued today by the Labor Department in Washington. Texas followed with a 23,900 decline and Ohio was next with a 16,700 drop.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: December 2009 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.7 Percent In November [SocketSite]
∙ California, Texas, Ohio Showed Biggest Job Losses [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (64) | (email story)

January 21, 2010

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In December: Up 36.3% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco was up 36.3% on a year-over-year basis last month (499 recorded sales in December ’09 versus 366 sales in December ‘08) and flat compared to the month prior. For context, December sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2007 were 646 (2004), 612 (2005), 589 (2006), and 445 (2007) while the average November to December drop was 4%.

San Francisco's median sales price in December was $650,000, up 5.4% compared to December ’08 ($616,500) and flat compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in December was up 13.6% on a year-over-year basis and up 13.8% from the month prior (7,828 recorded sales in December '09 versus 6,889 in December ’08 and 6,872 in November '09), while the recorded median sales price rose 15.2% on a year-over-year basis, down 1.8% compared to the month prior. Continue to think mix.

Foreclosure resales – homes sold in December that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – made up 32.3 percent of all resale activity. That was up from a revised 31.9 percent in November, and down from 48.3 percent in December 2008. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52 percent of resales in February 2009.

Federally-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, made up 25.6 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans last month. That was up from 25.1 percent in November, 22.8 percent a year ago and less than 0.5 percent two years ago.

Home loans for more than $417,000, the old “jumbo” limit, used to account for more than 60 percent of the Bay Area’s purchase financing. Last month it was 29.8 percent. That percentage rose from 17.1 in January 2009 to 28.7 last June. It has since remained at roughly 30 percent.

From the beginning of 2000 until August 2007, 61 percent of the Bay Area’s home purchase loans were adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). Last month it was 8 percent, up from 7.9 percent the month before, and up from 5.1 percent in December 2008.

At the extremes, Marin recorded a 60.6% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 100 transactions) with a 12.9% gain in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 8.6% decline in sales volume (a loss of 154 transactions) and a 13.9% increase in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

NOTE: We’re watching (and were waiting) to see if the published DataQuick numbers for San Francisco in December 2009 will be "revised" as exactly 499 sales and a $650,000 median in both November and December could be more than a coincidence.

∙ Bay Area December home sales strongest in three years [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In November: Up 46.8% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (25) | (email story)

January 13, 2010

Renting The Whole Remodeled Noe Home For Under Six (Asking)

Purchased for $1,230,000 in December 2003, the remodeled Noe Valley home at 350 Valley returned to the market in September 2009 but was withdrawn in December after a price cut in October (last asking $1,499,000).

And while it hasn’t been re-listed for sale (yet), 350 Valley is now available for rent at $5,800 per month. We’ll let you run your numbers. And we’ll also note a rather attractive and modernized four bedroom Victorian on 22nd Street (number 3711) that's also available for rent at $5,900 per month, asking once again.

∙ To Rent Or To Buy, That Is The Question (That Only You Can Answer) [SocketSite]
∙ Rental: $5800 / 3br - 2.5 ba - Striking/High End Renovated Home [Craigslist]
∙ Rental: $5900 / 4br - Beautiful 4 bed/2.5 bath Victorian in Prime Noe Valley [Craigslist]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

Asking $1,425,000. Owed $1,133,837. Sold For $528,500 (Cash).

Purchased for $820,000 in March 2002, the then three-unit building at 442 Holloway Avenue was refinanced in 2006 with a loan in the amount of $945,000.

In February 2008 a Notice of Default (NOD) was delivered on the Ingleside (District 3H) property. And yesterday, almost two years later, the now five-unit building with two unwarranted kitchens finally hit the courthouse steps.

Despite a first mortgage balance due of $1,133,872 including fees, the bidding started at $527,558. It closed four bids later with a sale at $528,500 (the only courthouse sale of the day in San Francisco). We’ll let you draw your own conclusions as to just how competitive the bidding between the two bidders seemed.

Oh, and if you’re in the process of submitting an offer on the Active MLS listing for 442 Holloway at $1,425,000, keep in mind the sellers no longer have anything to sell (and thank your lucky stars).

∙ Listing: 442 Holloway Avenue - $1,425,000 [MLS]
∙ San Francisco Real Estate Districts: Maps And Neighborhoods [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

January 8, 2010

The Union Street Blues

As the August montage was of 29 empty or available storefronts on Union, according to the Chronicle 35 businesses "went under from the start of 2008 through the second quarter of 2009 in the six blocks on Union Street between Octavia and Pierce" while 7 opened up.

The national economic crisis and its impact on tourism no doubt hurt Union Street in 2009, but business owners say the shopping district's decline is likely due to more gradual trends, in which retailers were slow to respond to younger consumers and landlords expected rents more reflective of the neighborhood's heyday.

The latest closure: Left at Albuquerque. But apparently new restaurants will save the day. Or perhaps that will be lower rents (down roughly 25% from a September 2008 peak).

∙ Twenty Nine Union Street Photos Worth More Than "Weak" Words [SocketSite]
∙ Merchants suffering along Union Street [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

January 5, 2010

Leading Indicator (Pending U.S. Home Sales) Takes A Hit In November

The 16 percent fall from October to November was much greater than expected for pending U.S. home sales, but a decline in general wasn’t (think seasonality), sales volume only dropped 2.7 percent in the West, and pending sales were up 19.3 percent on a year over year basis.

The figure shows housing may be at risk of weakening when homebuyer incentives, which were extended in November, expire later this year. Unemployment close to a 26-year high and weaker consumer finances remain hurdles to a sustained acceleration in home sales that would help fuel the economy.

“The buildup in sales and contracts was driven by the rush to beat the deadline for the tax credit,” said Bill Jordan, an economist at Ried Thunberg & Co. in Jersey City, New Jersey, whose forecast of a 12 percent drop was the closest in a Bloomberg News survey. After the extension expires, housing will have “some kind of a mild recovery,” he said.

Was it (or will it be) so in San Francisco?

∙ Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Dropped 16%

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

January 4, 2010

Reporting From the Courthouse Steps: Shares Sell, Others Postponed

A plugged-in tipster reports that of roughly 50 houses and condos scheduled to hit the courthouse steps this afternoon in San Francisco, auctions for the vast majority (40-ish) were postponed and the rest cancelled which included the latest foreclosure proceedings against 755 Marina Boulevard.

The only real auction action today in San Francisco seemed to be for a batch of timeshare units with opening bids starting at just over a thousand each. Don't ask us.

UPDATE: Or do (ask us).

The foreclosed upon timeshare units appear to have been seven shares of San Francisco Suites (710 Powell). From the July 2009 San Francisco Suites Association meeting minutes:

With regard to the 2009 assessment delinquencies, there are 22 delinquent shares facing foreclosure, plus 3 more that are on a payment schedule. The process is in motion according to the rules and regulations of the Suites.

Seven down and fifteen to go?

∙ Yahoo Unveils Underwhelming Foreclosure Center [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Suites: Association Meeting Minutes – July 2009 [sfsuitescsa.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

2845 Broadway Is Withdrawn In 2010 After 1400 DOM At $65,000,000

Speaking of properties that were withdrawn from the MLS at the end of the year, after 1400 days on the market at $65,000,000, and without a single official reduction, on Friday the first the listing for 2845 Broadway was withdrawn from the market without a sale.

As we wrote in 2006 when the property was first listed:

Apparently the original two structures at 2845 Broadway sold for $32 million in November 2002, cost of construction to date is estimated to be $18 million, and the “Buzz among brokers” is that it will cost another $8-16 million to finish the property. Just to clarify, for $65M you won’t be getting any “interior walls, ceilings and finishes”.

No update on the current finish of the property (or whether it will soon return to the market with 1399 fewer days on the market and no official reductions).

Other notable properties that have either recently been withdrawn from the MLS without a sale, pulled off the market for the holidays, or have had their listings expire: 2100 Vallejo, 2006 Washington #4, 999 Green #2802 and 393 Carl.

UPDATE: Noted by a plugged-in reader on our original thread with a reminder by another this morning, a tiny peek inside 2845 Broadway via Forbes a few years back.

∙ The $65,000,000 House [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 1/04/10 [SocketSite]
∙ Two Years And A 46 Percent Drop In Expectations For 2100 Vallejo [SocketSite]
∙ 2006 Washington Number 4 Returns Asking 32 (Plus) Percent Less [SocketSite]
∙ The (Eichler) Summit Of 999 Green Street #2802 [SocketSite]
∙ 393 Carl: One Of Four New Construction Condos After And Before [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (31) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 1/04/10

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 30% over the past two weeks driven by both sales and withdrawn or deactivated listings during the holidays and ended the year 29% under 2008 levels on a year-over-year basis but squarely between the listed inventory levels of 2006 and 2007.

34% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (68) or seeking a short sale (86) has risen to 19%.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 12/14/09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (37) | (email story)

December 31, 2009

Another Market Metric And Food For Thought At The End Of The Year

Eleven months ago Paragon Real Estate attempted to define the decline from peak for 12 segments in San Francisco. Based on a comparison of average dollars per square foot for sales at "peak" versus an average of sales from 10/15/08 to 1/30/09, Paragon concluded that declines to date in February had ranged from 6 percent for single-family homes in the Richmond to 25 percent for single-family homes in Bayview/Excelsior.

In between were single-family homes in Noe/Eureka Valley (down 10 percent at the time) and condos in Hayes Valley/Alamo Square/NOPA (down 11 percent at the time).

In November Paragon repeated their analysis but changed to 18 segments. As a plugged-in reader noted last month, Paragon’s declines from peak to November (actually averages for sales from May to October) ranged from 9 percent for Pacific Heights/Marina condos to 45 percent for single-family homes in Bayview (no longer combined with Excelsior).

The decline from peak for single-family homes in Noe/Eureka Valley fell to 21 percent while the decline for condos in Hayes Valley/Alamo Square/NOPA fell to 18 percent.

And while the average price per square foot decline from peak to November for single-family homes in the much maligned District 10 averaged 35 percent, the average decline from peak for single-family homes elsewhere in San Francisco averaged 17 percent. The average decline for condos? 17 percent.

According to Paragon's analysis, peaks for each area ranged from the first half of 2006 (bottom end of the market) to the first half of 2008 (top end of the market), with the majority in 2007 or before. As we wrote in 2006, "Get ready for what we’re going to call a real estate 'flight to quality'." And nobody that’s plugged-in should have been caught by surprise.

Keep in mind a comparison of average selling prices per square foot is far from perfect especially when painting with such broad brush strokes. We can’t vouch for Paragon’s methodology or results. And as Paragon correctly noted in February (but not in November), price per square foot comparisons in a down market tend to understate actual declines in no small part due to changes in mix (might "beauty pageant effect" sound familiar?).

All in all it’s just another metric to consider, some extra context for our apples (think drops from pre-2006 values), and food for thought and reflection at the end of the year.

Cheers.

Paragon's November numbers (verus peak and "April") for all eighteen (18):

Changes in Average Dollar per Square Foot Values from estimated peaks to "November" (5/09-10/09) for Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods & Property Types (and changes from "April" (10/08-3/09) when available):

Decline from an estimated peak in the first half of 2006:
Bayview SFR -45% (down 5% from "April" 2009)
Excelsior/Portola SFR -25% (-1.5%)
Ingleside/Heights/Oceanview SFR -23% (-1%)

Decline from an estimated peak in the first half of 2007:
Mission (Inner) Condo -20%
Sunset (Central/Outer) SFR -20% (-6%)
SOMA Condo -18% (+2%)
Miraloma/Sunnyside SFR -19% (-8%)
Saint Francis Wood/West Portal/Forest Hill SFR -15%
Richmond (Central/Outer) SFR -14%
Potrero Hill SFR -14%

Decline from an estimated peak in the first half of 2008:
Noe & Eureka Valley SFR -21% (-6%)
Noe & Eureka Valley Condo -18% (-9%)
Hayes Valley/Alamo/NOPA Condo -18% (-7%)
South Beach Condos -18% (-6%)
Bernal Heights SFR -13% (+2%)
Russian/Nob/Telegraph Hill Condo -13%
Pacific Heights/Marina Condo -9% (-4%)
Most Expensive ($1.5-4.0M) North Houses -18%

∙ How Much Have San Francisco Home Values Declined Since their Peak? [Paragon 2/09]
∙ How Much Have San Francisco Home Values Declined Since their Peak? [Paragon 11/09]
∙ Still Defying Gravity At Glen Park Market Place? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (43) | (email story)

New U.S. Jobless Claims Dip But Extended Benefits Jump In December

"Initial jobless claims fell by 22,000 to 432,000 in the week ended Dec. 26, the lowest level since July 2008, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance fell [by 57,000] in the prior week to 4.98 million [but] those receiving extended benefits jumped [by 199,000 to 4.82 million]."

∙ U.S. Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Level Since 2008 [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

December 29, 2009

October Case-Shiller: Up For SF MSA Houses, Down For Condos

According to the October 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA gained 1.2% from September ’09 to October '09, down 2.6% year-over-year and down 37.8% from a peak in May 2006, but up from a 46.1% fall from peak as recorded in March 2009.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values gained a nominal 0.1% from September to October and remain down 29.8% from a peak in June 2006 (down 6.4% year-over-year).

"The turn-around in home prices seen in the Spring and Summer has faded with only seven of the 20 cities seeing month-to-month gains, although all 20 continue to show improvements on a year-over-year basis. All in all, this report should be described as flat." says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.

"Coming after a series of solid gains, these data are likely to spark worries that home prices are about to take a second dip. Before jumping to conclusions, recognize that the one time that happened at the beginning of the 1980s, Fed policy saw dramatic reversals, which is very different from the stable and consistent Fed policy we have today. Further, sales of existing homes – those included in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – have been very strong in recent months, working off the inventories of houses for sale. At the same time, housing starts remain weak, fears that the market will be swamped by a wave of foreclosures are heard and government programs aimed at the housing market will expire in the first half of 2010."

On a month-over-month basis and having skipped September, San Francisco MSA single-family home prices rose across all three price tiers for the fourth time since May 2006.

The bottom third (under $317,792 at the time of acquisition) gained 1.0% from September to October (down 11.9% YOY); the middle third gained 1.9% from September to October (down 3.5% YOY); and the top third (over $591,888 at the time of acquisition) gained 0.8% from September to October (down 8.3% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA remain at June 2000 levels having fallen 58% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around June 2002 levels having fallen 36% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is back to March 2004 levels having fallen 24% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.3% from September ’09 to October '09, down 9.7% on a year-over-year basis and down 27.6% from an October 2005 high.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Prices Still Improving but at a Moderating Pace [S&P]
∙ September Case-Shiller: Bottom Tiers Up But Flat At Top For SF MSA [SocketSite]
∙ A Sprinter's Or Marathoner's Pace? [SocketSite]
∙ Are The Real San Francisco Foreclosures On Their Way? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (54) | (email story)

December 23, 2009

U.S. New Home Sales Pace Slows 11 Percent In November

While the pace of existing home sales in the U.S. quickened in November, the pace of new home sales fell 11 percent from October.

"The tax credit put a Band-Aid over the housing problem and in October and November we ripped it off" as it was set to expire, said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, who projected sales would fall. "Demand for housing is not likely to pick up on a consistent basis until we start to see some improvement in employment."

Think foreclosures when trying to rationalize the divergence in pace between existing and new home sales.

∙ A Sprinter's Or Marathoner's Pace? [SocketSite]
∙ Sales of U.S. New Homes Unexpectedly Fell in November [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

December 22, 2009

A Sprinter's Or Marathoner's Pace?

"[U.S. existing home] purchases increased 7.4 percent to a 6.54 million annual rate from a revised 6.09 million pace the prior month, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median sales price declined 4.3 percent from the same month a year earlier, the smallest decrease since November 2007.

Lower interest rates, cheaper homes and a homebuyer tax credit have resuscitated a housing market that contributed to the worst economic slump since the 1930s. A sustained recovery in housing and the economy depends on a resumption of payroll growth after employers cut 7.2 million jobs in the past two years."

∙ Sales of [U.S.] Existing Homes Increase More Than Forecast [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (21) | (email story)

December 21, 2009

Insight Into The Inevitable Once Again?

"Nearly 40 percent of homeowners who received a loan modification that reduced monthly loan payments by 20 percent or more were at least two months late again within a year..."

UPDATE: A plugged-in reader comes through with a link to the original report.

∙ Borrowers with modified loans falling into trouble [The Associated Press]
∙ 9% Of HAMP Eligible Delinquent Loans Modified, 91% To Go [SocketSite]
∙ OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report: Third Quarter 2009 [pdfdownload.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (39) | (email story)

A Country(wide) Home In The City: 31 Clipper

Purchased for $675,000 in March 2003, public records would suggest 31 Clipper has actually been bank owned for the past two years (and taken back with $857,500+ owed).

"Freshly painted" but unfortunately not as freshly renovated as well, the Noe Valley 2/2 (with an unwarranted 1/1 below) is now seeking a non-bank buyer at $757,800.

31 Clipper is one of only 39 new listings in San Francisco over the past week, thirteen of which were either bank owned (10) or seeking a short sale (3).

∙ Listing: 31 Clipper (2/2) - $757,800 [MLS] [Map]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (42) | (email story)

December 18, 2009

More Along The Lines Of A Figurative San Francisco "Tsunami"

"[Moody’s Investors Service] now expects losses of 3.8 percent on loans underlying 2005 prime-jumbo bonds, with estimates of 8 percent for 2006 securitizations, 10.9 percent for 2007 debt and 12.3 percent for 2008 securities."

"Since March, serious delinquencies among the pools, as a percentage of original balances, have risen to 3.2 percent from 2.1 percent for 2005 bonds, 6 percent from 3.8 percent for 2006 securities, 7.6 percent from 4.8 percent for 2007 debt, and 7.8 percent from 4.6 percent for the 2008 group, Moody’s said."

∙ Moody’s Reviews $143 Billion of Jumbo-Mortgage Bonds [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.7 Percent In November

Preliminary November labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.7%, 8.0% and 8.9% respectively, down 0.2 percentage points in San Francisco and San Mateo and down 0.1 percentage points in Marin.

While the number of unemployed in San Francisco fell by 1000 (from 44,100 to 43,100) in November, the number of employed fell by 600 (from 402,100 to 401,500) as the labor force contracted by 1,500 (from 446,100 to 444,600).

Overall California unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points to 12.2%.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: November 2009 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 9.9 Percent In October [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

Latest San Francisco Listing Euphemism: "Unfinished" Versus Stripped

Purchased for $1,888,000 in October 2005, 1522 Lake Street underwent a major renovation and returned to the market this past July asking $2,100,000. It didn’t sell.

A week ago it returned to the MLS asking $1,750,000. From the listing:

…Skylights galore, Marble tiled baths, Box Beamed Ceiling, Period Details, New Andersen Dual Paned Wndws, Top Fixtures + much more! A Bargain at this price as the home is unfinished! Kitchen Cabinets, BA Fixtures, Speakers, Lighting/Trims are needed to finish this Grand Home!

While the listing notes "unfinished," however, a plugged-in reader reports: "stripped."

Oh, and did we mention the property also hit the courthouse steps eleven days ago with a minimum bid of $1,301,817? As a plugged-in tipster reports, it sold for $1,305,500. Yes, more than a penny over, but not too much so considering a reported three bidders.

∙ Listing: 1522 Lake Street (3/4) - $1,750,000 [MLS] [Map]
∙ Are The Real San Francisco Foreclosures On Their Way? [SocketSite]
∙ Noe Renovation Goes For A Penny Over Foreclosure Auction Minimum [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (46) | (email story)

December 17, 2009

Are The Real San Francisco Foreclosures On Their Way?

Bloomberg reports:

Homeowners with mortgages of more than $1 million are defaulting at almost twice the U.S. rate and some are turning to so-called short sales to unload properties as stock-market losses and pay cuts squeeze wealthy borrowers.

Payments on about 12 percent of mortgages exceeding $1 million were 90 days or more overdue in September, compared with 6.3 percent on loans less than $250,000 and 7.4 percent on all U.S. mortgages, according to data from First American CoreLogic Inc., a Santa Ana, California-based research firm. The rate for mortgages above $1 million was 4.7 percent a year earlier.

∙ Luxury-Home Owners in U.S. Use ‘Short Sales’ as Defaults Rise [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In November: Up 46.8% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco jumped 46.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (499 recorded sales in November ’09 versus 340 sales in November ‘08), down 9.8% compared to the month prior on seasonality. For context, November sales figures for San Francisco from 2004 to 2007 were 682 (2004), 658 (2005), 568 (2006), and 479 (2007) while the average October to November drop was 4.2%.

San Francisco's median sales price in November was $650,000, up a nominal 0.3% compared to November ’08 ($648,000) but down 5.9% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in November was up 19.5% on a year-over-year basis and down 13.3% from the month prior (6,878 recorded sales in November '09 versus 5,756 in November ’08 and 7,933 in October '09), while the recorded median sales price rose 10.6% on a year-over-year basis, down a nominal 0.8% compared to the month prior. Think mix.

Last month’s sales were the highest for a November since 2006 but were still 14.6 percent lower than the November sales average of 8,050 since 1988, when DataQuick’s stats begin. November sales have ranged from a low of 5,127 in 2007 to a high of 11,906 in 2004. On average since 1988, sales have dropped 8.3 percent between October and November.

Sales in the region’s higher-cost counties – Marin, San Francisco, Santa Clara and San Mateo – represented 42.3 percent of November sales, up from 35.0 percent a year ago, when more sales were concentrated in the lower-cost inland areas steeped in foreclosures. Homes selling for more than $500,000 made up 36.5 percent of all transactions last month, up from 31.3 percent a year ago and a low this year of 22.7 percent in January.

At the extremes, Marin recorded a 52.9% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 82 transactions) on a 4.0% drop in median sales price, while Solano recorded flat sales volume (actually, a loss of 1 transaction) and a 4.9% increase in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area home sales and median price top last year again [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In October: Up 33.6% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

December 14, 2009

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 12/14/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 11% over the past two weeks (versus a 15% drop for the same two weeks over the past three years) and is currently running 20% under 2008 levels on a year-over-year basis (down 27% for single-family homes and down 14% for condos/TICs) but 13% above the average listed inventory levels of 2006/2007.

33% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction (versus 45% a year ago) while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned or seeking a short sale has risen to 15%.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 12/01/09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

San Francisco’s Commercial Sublease Snapshot: December 2009

According to Colliers, 2,253,339 square feet of commercial sublease space is currently on the market in San Francisco, down 158,186 square feet over the past 40 days on 33,727 square feet of net absorption along with withdrawn listings.

The percentage of space available for sublease that is currently vacant is 61 percent.

∙ San Francisco’s Commercial Sublease Snapshot: November 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (27) | (email story)

December 11, 2009

The Rapid Rise Of "Strategic" Defaults

Defined as those who stop paying their mortgages but remain current on all their non-real-estate debts, Experian and Oliver Wyman estimate nearly a third of all defaults in California were "strategic" in 2008 (up from 2 percent in 2004).

As the stigma of abandoning a mortgage wanes, the Obama administration could face an uphill battle in its effort to keep people in their homes by pressuring banks to cut their mortgage payments. Some analysts argue that's not always the right approach, particularly if it prevents people from shedding onerous debts and starting afresh.

"The effect of these programs is often to lead homeowners to make decisions that are not in their economic best interests," says Brent White, a law professor at the University of Arizona who has studied mortgage defaults.

No word on whether or not any of the bank owned units at Watermark might have fit the strategic default bill (or if others are in the works).

∙ American Dream 2: Default, Then Rent [Wall Street Journal]
∙ Rewarding Forgiving Their Riskiest Borrowers [SocketSite]
∙ Another Bank Owned Watermark Comp To Be: 501 Beale #6C [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (34) | (email story)

Back To The Bank For Six San Francisco Office Buildings

As expected, with $233,784,407 owed on the property, 333 Bush Street was taken back by lender Brookfield Properties. The building was bought for $281 million in 2007.

Also as reported by the San Francisco Business Times, Morgan Stanley is in the process of handing One Post, 201 California, Foundry Square 1, 60 Spear and 188 Embarcadero back to Apollo Global Management. All five were acquired in 2007 as well.

∙ 333 Bush: Bought For $281M In 2007 But Now Going Back To The Bank [SocketSite]
∙ Brookfield Properties forecloses on 333 Bush in S.F. [Business Times]
∙ Morgan Stanley to give back San Francisco buildings [Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

December 4, 2009

U.S. Unemployment Falls To 10 Percent In November

"Employers in the U.S. cut the fewest jobs in November since the recession began and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell [to 10 percent], signaling the recovery is lifting the labor market out of the worst slump since World War II."

November numbers for San Francisco in two weeks, (October was up to 9.9 percent).

∙ Payrolls in U.S. Decline 11,000; Unemployment at 10% [Bloomberg]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 9.9 Percent In October [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

December 3, 2009

It's The Principal Of The Underwater Mortgage Matter

"We’re looking now at whether we should provide some further loss sharing for principal write downs," [FDIC Chairman Sheila] Bair said. "Now you’re in a situation where even the good mortgages are going bad because people are losing their jobs. So you have other factors now driving mortgage distress."

∙ FDIC’s Bair Weighs Mortgage Principal Cuts to Fight Foreclosure [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

Bay Area Business Confidence Up (Along With Pink Slips)

"A quarterly index of Bay Area business confidence has registered its first positive reading in two years. But the brighter outlook captured in a survey being released today by the Bay Area Council may not halt layoffs or spur widespread hiring in the short term."

∙ Bay Area Council survey shows confidence is up [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

December 1, 2009

Firehouse 44: Listed In 2008, Withdrawn In 2009, Returning In 2010?

As we wrote in October:

It’s been on the market since May 22, 2008. And during that time the asking price has dropped from $6,375,000 to $5,175,000. And no, 3816 22nd Street (a.k.a. Firehouse 44) isn’t in contract.

But a new photo has been added to the listing (although not the one above). Perhaps it's an attempt to keep the 515 days on the market listing "fresh."

Today, the listing for 3816 22nd Street was withdrawn from the MLS after 558 days on the market. Will Firehouse 44 return in 2010 refreshed and as inventory anew?

∙ A "Fresh" Look At Firehouse 44 (3816 22nd Street) After 515 Days [SocketSite]
∙ The Holy Hotness Of Firehouse 44 (3816 22nd Street) Hits The Market [SocketSite]
∙ Holy Hotness, History, And Home: Engine Company No. 44 Returns [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 12/01/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 6% over the past two weeks and is currently running 23% under 2008 levels on a year-over-year basis (down 28% for single-family homes and down 19% for condos/TICs) but 7% above the average listed inventory levels of 2006/2007.

38% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction (versus 45% a year ago) while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned or seeking a short sale is now almost 14%.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 11/17/09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

November 30, 2009

An Emotional Bricks And Mortar Asset Allocation For The Wealthy

"Real estate investment among wealthy individuals [with more than $800,000 to invest] is set to rise to 30 percent of the average portfolio for the next few years from 28 percent now, according to [a Barclays global] survey. That excludes properties used as a principal residence. Most rich people, other than the extremely wealthy, should have no more than 10 percent of their assets in property, said [Mike Dicks, the London-based head of research at Barclays Wealth]."

"I was surprised how big a share of their wealth property represents," [said Dicks]. "It’s not what I would tell grandma. None of our data suggests that would be a good allocation."

∙ Wealthy Investors Plan to Buy More Real Estate, Barclays Says [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (36) | (email story)

November 25, 2009

San Francisco MSA Prestige Home Index Down 15.7% Year Over Year

While September's S&P/Case-Shiller index for San Francisco showed a nominal decline for the top third of MSA properties (cost basis over $577,214) from August to September, the latest First Republic Prestige Home Index for the San Francisco MSA (the same Case-Shiller data but for properties with a cost basis of over a million) recorded a 3.8 percent drop from the second to third quarter in 2009, down 15.7 percent year over year.

As a plugged-in reader notes, the San Francisco Index is down 18.2 percent from its peak in the third quarter of 2007. Our standard footnotes with respect to the S&P/Case-Shiller index apply.

∙ September Case-Shiller: Bottom Tiers Up But Flat At Top For SF MSA [SocketSite]
∙ First Republic Prestige Home Index for San Francisco [firstrepublic.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

U.S. New Home Purchases Up, Median Price Falls

"Purchases of new homes in the U.S. rebounded more than anticipated in October [up 6.2 percent to an annual pace of 430,000] as buyers rushed to take advantage of a government tax credit before it expired...Home values may remain under pressure as builders are forced to compete with mounting foreclosures as unemployment climbs."

As we wrote on Monday, two things to consider: 1. the impact of home buyer tax credits that were originally slated to expire on November 20; and 2. the state of October 2008.

∙ Sales of New Houses in U.S. Climb to Highest Level Since 2008 [Bloomberg]
∙ One Of Thirty Underwater Properties New To The Market This Week [SocketSite]
∙ Animating The Unemployment Wave And Wondering About Its Impact [SocketSite]
∙ Pace Of U.S. Existing Home Purchases Up 23.5 Percent YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (25) | (email story)

November 24, 2009

Animating The Unemployment Wave And Wondering About Its Impact

As the pace of existing home purchases in U.S. picks up and the latest Case-Shiller Index twenty-city composite ticks up, a plugged-in tipster points us in the direction of a rather sobering animation of the rising unemployment wave spreading across our country.

The questions: what’s really driving any real estate "rebound," is it sustainable, and what happens if it's not? Are we currently scooping up fish left floundering on the ocean floor by receding seas unaware of a wave that's soon to return?

∙ Pace Of U.S. Existing Home Purchases Up 23.5 Percent YOY [SocketSite]
∙ September Case-Shiller: Bottom Tiers Up But Flat At Top For SF MSA [SocketSite]
∙ The Decline: The Geography of a Recession [americanobserver.net]
∙ U.S. Unemployment At 10.2 Percent, Five Tenths Above San Francisco [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 9.9 Percent In October [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (39) | (email story)

September Case-Shiller: Bottom Tiers Up But Flat At Top For SF MSA

According to the September 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA gained 1.3% from August ’09 to September '09, down 7.8% year-over-year and down 38.6% from a peak in May 2006, but up from a 46.1% fall from peak as recorded in March 2009.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values gained 0.4% from August to September but remain down 29.9% from a peak in June 2006 (down 8.5% year-over-year).

San Francisco and Washington DC have reported six consecutive months of positive returns. Chicago, Minneapolis, San Diego and the two Composites were close behind with five consecutive months of positive returns. In addition to the two Composites, nine of the MSAs reported positive monthly returns for September and four of those -- Chicago, Detroit Minneapolis and San Francisco -- were greater than +1.0%.

Las Vegas remains the most depressed market. Prices have declined for 37 consecutive months, with a peak-to-trough reading of -55.4%. While Detroit has seen some positive movement in recent months, the market is still at only 73% of its 2000 value. This compares to regions such as Los Angeles, New York and Washington, which have maintained values of 70-80% above their 2000 averages, in spite of the market downturn.

On a month-over-month basis San Francisco MSA single-family home prices rose for the bottom two price tiers for the fourth time since May 2006, but fell nominally at the top.

The bottom third (under $309,497 at the time of acquisition) gained 2.3% from August to September (down 15.9% YOY); the middle third gained 1.1% from August to September (down 7.8% YOY); and the top third (over $577,214 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.1% from August to September (down 11.5% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back to June 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around May 2002 levels having fallen 38% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is almost back to March 2004 levels having fallen 24% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA rose 0.8% from August ’09 to September '09, down 12.2% on a year-over-year basis and down 27.3% from an October 2005 high.

Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Prices Show Sustained Improvement through Third Quarter of 2009 [S&P]
∙ August S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues MOM Uptick [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (43) | (email story)

November 23, 2009

Pace Of U.S. Existing Home Purchases Up 23.5 Percent YOY

The pace of existing U.S. homes purchases hit a 6.1 million annual rate in October, up from a 5.54 million pace in September and up 23.5 percent on a year-over year basis as the median price fell 7.1 percent as compared to October 2008.

Two things to consider: 1. the impact of home buyer tax credits that were originally slated to expire on November 20; and 2. the state of October 2008.

∙ U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise 10%, More Than Forecast [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

November 20, 2009

San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 9.9 Percent In October

Preliminary October labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.9%, 8.1% and 9.1% respectively, up 0.2 percentage points in San Francisco and up 0.1 percentage points in Marin and San Mateo.

While the number of unemployed in San Francisco increased by 700 (from 43,400 to 44,100) in October, the number of employed fell by 1,600 (from 403,700 to 402,100) as the labor force contracted by 1,000 (from 447,100 to 446,100).

Overall California unemployment increased by 0.3 percentage points to 12.3%.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: October 2009 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.7 Percent In September [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

November 19, 2009

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In October: Up 33.6% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco jumped 33.6% on a year-over-year basis last month (553 recorded sales in October ’09 versus 414 sales in October ‘08) and rose 3.2% compared to the month prior.

San Francisco's median sales price in October was $690,824, down 1.2% compared to October ’08 ($699,000) but up 6.3% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in October was up 4.2% on a year-over-year basis and up 0.7% from the month prior (7,933 recorded sales in October '09 versus 7,613 in October ’08 and 7,879 in September '09), while the recorded median sales price rose 4.0% on a year-over-year basis, up 6.8% compared to the month prior. Think mix.

Sales in the region’s higher-cost counties – Marin, San Francisco, Santa Clara and San Mateo – represented 42.2 percent of October sales, up from 35.3 percent a year ago, when more sales were concentrated in the lower-cost inland areas rife with deeply discounted foreclosures. Sales over $500,000 made up 36 percent of all sales last month, up from 34.9 percent a year ago and a low this year of 22.7 percent in January.

At the extremes, San Francisco recorded the greatest year-over-year percentage increase in sales volume while Solano recorded a 8.6% year-over-year decrease in sales volume (a loss of 67 transactions) and a 18.8% drop in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

UPDATE: We assumed it went without saying, but with respect to the magnitude of the year-over-year sales increase, keep in mind that October 2008 was a rather rough month for the markets. Recorded San Francisco county October sales figures over the past six years: 720 (2004), 670 (2005), 573 (2006), 526 (2007), 414 (2008), 553 (2009).

∙ Bay Area median sale price tops year-ago level [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In September: Up 17% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (65) | (email story)

US (But Not DA) Prime And FHA Mortgage Defaults Climbing

While subprime adjustable-rate foreclosures starts dropped in the third quarter of 2009 (from 5.52 percent to 4.92 percent), both the number and pace of FHA backed and prime fixed-rate mortgage defaults climbed.

One out of every six FHA mortgages was late by at least one payment and 3.32 percent were in foreclosure, the highest for both since at least 1979, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today. The delinquency rate for prime fixed-rate mortgages, considered home loans with the least risk, rose to 5.8 percent and the foreclosure inventory rose to 1.95 percent, the highest since at least 1972.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started was a record 1.42 percent. New foreclosures on prime fixed-rate loans increased to 0.71 percent from 0.67 percent, while FHA foreclosure starts rose to 1.31 percent from 1.15 percent.

From DataQuick today:

Federally-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, made up 25.9 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans [in October]. That was up from 24.9 percent in September, 19 percent a year ago and less than 1 percent two years ago.

And while default rates are climbing, keep in mind money remains historically cheap:

The 30-year rate dropped to 4.83 percent from 4.91 percent, the lowest since May, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac of McLean, Virginia, said today in a statement. The average 15-year rate fell to 4.32 percent, the lowest since records began in 1991.

∙ FHA, Prime Mortgage Defaults at Records on Job Losses [Bloomberg]
∙ OMG For The FHA [SocketSite]
∙ U.S. Mortgage Rates Fall for Third Consecutive Week [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

November 18, 2009

The "Unexpected" Drops Spread To U.S. Residential Construction

"Residential construction in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in October amid concern a homebuyer tax credit would expire [but didn't], illustrating the market’s dependence on government help to sustain a recovery as job losses mount."

∙ U.S. Economy: Homebuilding Drops as End of Tax Credit Loomed [Bloomberg]
∙ Senate Approves First-Time (And Move-Up) Homebuyer Tax Credits [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.7 Percent In September [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

November 17, 2009

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 11/17/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 4% over the past two weeks and is currently running 25% under 2008 levels on a year-over-year basis (down 30% for single-family homes and down 21% for condos/TICs) but is on par with the average listed inventory levels of 2006/2007.

39% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction (versus 43% a year ago) while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned or seeking a short sale is now almost 12%.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 11/02/09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (75) | (email story)

Plugged-In People Should Have Seen This One Coming A Year Away

"A report released Monday by the [San Francisco] controller's office shows that property tax revenues will likely be $35 million less than anticipated in the 2009-10 fiscal year that began July 1. Payroll tax revenues will probably be $24.8 million less than expected..."

∙ S.F. home value drop, jobless drain city budget [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

November 16, 2009

Oh My (And Bank Owned) At The Odeon On O’Farrell

Purchased for $800,000 in December 2006, Odeon (181 O’Farrell) #508 was taken back by the bank. It’s been listed at $601,400, a sale at which would represent a 25 percent drop in value over the past three years.

Also on the market in the Odeon, #307 which was purchased for $780,000 in March 2007, has been on the market for the past 185 days, and hasn’t moved at $699,000 (a 10 percent drop). And #505 which was purchased for $894,500 in February 2007, has been on the market for the past 56 days, and hasn’t moved at $760,000 (a 15 percent drop).

And then there’s the penthouse (#513) which was purchased for $2,000,000 in March 2007. An attempt to sell it off as a fractional over the past two years failed and it’s been the market as a whole for the past 172 days. Originally asking $2,349,000, it’s been three months at $2,099,000 with an owner that "says make an offer!!"

∙ Listing: 181 O’Farrell #307 (1/1.5) - $699,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 181 O’Farrell #508 (1/1.5) 1,047 sqft - $601,400 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 181 O’Farrell #505 (1/1.5) 1,334 sqft - $760,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 181 O’Farrell #513 (3/2) 2,516 sqft - $2,099,000 [MLS]
∙ New Developments: Odeon (181 O’Farrell) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (49) | (email story)

November 12, 2009

Average Tax Assessed Reduction Request Is 40% For 2009/10

Perhaps our reader’s 25.7% drop in assessed value for 2009/10 was actually low. From the Chronicle:

Owners of more than 4,000 homes and commercial buildings [in San Francisco] have appealed to the city to have the assessed value of their properties lowered to reduce their taxes. There were 1,200 appeals last year and 300 the year before that.

The total value of those 4,000-plus properties is about $25 billion…[and] the average of the requested reductions is 40 percent, but they have yet to be settled.

We believe there were actually 1,673 appeals last year (versus the Chronicle’s reported 1,200), 810 of which were granted with an average reduction of 11.5%. Unfortunately we don’t have the average for what was requested last year for an early apples to apples comparison.

∙ A 25.7% Drop In Assessed Value For A Plugged-In Reader In 2009/10 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco union workers facing layoffs [SFGate]
∙ Average Granted Assessed Value Reduction In San Francisco: 11.5% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

November 9, 2009

High-End Foreclosures Swimming Against A Slowing Low-End Stream

It’s a story on a trend that shouldn’t catch any truly plugged-in readers by surprise: foreclosures are heading upstream. And while the raw numbers remain relatively small as compared to outlying areas and San Francisco’s District 10, it’s the more expensive areas that are leading the way with respect to relative rates of change (i.e., growth) as rates in the less expensive areas are slowing or reversing course.

∙ Default notices rising in upper echelon ZIPs [SFGate]
∙ Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Up 31.6% QOQ (Down 6.8% YOY) [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Real Estate Districts: Maps And Neighborhoods [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

November 6, 2009

U.S. Unemployment At 10.2 Percent, Five Tenths Above San Francisco

"The unemployment rate in the U.S. soared to a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October and employers cut more jobs than forecast, underscoring why Federal Reserve policy makers say interest rates will remain near zero."

∙ Unemployment in U.S. Jumps to 10.2%, Payrolls Fall [Bloomberg]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.7 Percent In September [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

November 3, 2009

Medians Are Up, But Don’t Confuse That With Increasing "Prices"

SFGate recently ran a bit called "Is the bubble back?" highlighting a "creeping" median sales price from August to September in San Francisco as evidence of increasing prices and a real estate "comeback."

Ignoring the fact that the featured RE Report summary data for August doesn’t tie to their own District level data (288 "Home" and 207 "Condo" sales according to their summary versus 202 and 188 sales respectively when we sum their District data), perhaps a basic understanding of what’s driving the change in median sales price is in order.

Repeating the down and dirty analysis we outlined a year ago, if we rank order average District medians in August and September from low-cost to high-cost areas (considering condos and single-family homes as two distinct "Districts"), establish a median "District" or cutoff based on total transactions, and then compare the number of sales in Districts above and below said median we see a nominal 1% decrease in "low-cost" District sales versus a 10% increase in "high-cost" district sales.

Isolating single-family home and condo sales, we see a 23% decrease in "low-cost" district sales versus a 2% decrease in "high-cost" districts for single-family homes. And for condos it’s a 9% increase in "low-cost" districts versus a 22% increase in "high-cost" districts.

In other words, absent any change in underlying "prices," or even despite a decrease, the median sales price in San Francisco was bound to increase as the proportion (mix) of high-cost home sales increased.

And for the last time (we can dream), while median sales price isn’t a bad measure of what people are buying, using changes in median sales price as a proxy for market appreciation (or depreciation) is a lousy if not misleading measure when mix is changing as well.

∙ Is the bubble back? Median prices creeping up in San Francisco [SFGate]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 8/05/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (33) | (email story)

November 2, 2009

Employment And Earnings Matter? Who Knew...

"...the belief among many lenders is that the demand for commercial space and condominiums could be "extraordinarily weak" for several more years, in large part because businesses aren't showing signs of growing or hiring. San Francisco's unemployment rate has hovered near 10 percent since June. The state figure was 12.2 percent in September, lending support to the "jobless recovery" theory."

∙ Building in S.F. not expected to grow for years [SFGate]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.7 Percent In September [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (46) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 11/02/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 4.2% over the past two weeks and is currently running 21.8% under 2008 levels on a year-over-year basis (down 29% for single-family homes and down 17% for condos/TICs) but remains within five percent of listed inventory levels at the same point in 2006/2007.

36% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction (versus 40% a year ago) while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned or seeking a short sale is just over 10%.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 10/13/09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (31) | (email story)

October 30, 2009

San Francisco’s Commercial Sublease Snapshot: November 2009

According to Colliers, 2,411,525 square feet of commercial sublease space is currently on the market in San Francisco, down 248,159 square feet over the past 30 days but once again driven by withdrawn listings rather than absorption (negative 89,527 square feet).

The percentage of space available for sublease that is currently vacant is 53 percent.

∙ San Francisco’s Commercial Sublease Snapshot: October 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

October 29, 2009

Will The Stimulated Economy Be As "Sticky" As Real Estate?

"The U.S. economy grew in the third quarter for the first time in more than a year, propelled by stimulus-driven gains in consumer spending and home building."

UPDATE (10/30): "Americans cut spending for the first time in five months and a gauge of confidence weakened, signaling consumers will make a limited contribution to the recovery without government incentives."

∙ Economy in U.S. Expands for First Time in a Year [Bloomberg]
∙ "Credits For Condos" (And Other New Homes) A Clunker As Well? [SocketSite]
∙ From ‘Sticky’ To ‘Slippery’: A Fundamental Change In The Housing Market? [SocketSite]
∙ U.S. Economy: Consumer Spending, Confidence Fall [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (29) | (email story)

October 28, 2009

"Credits For Condos" (And Other New Homes) A Clunker As Well?

Car sales rocketed after the government rolled out their "Cash for Clunkers" sales incentive, but then plummeted when it expired.

New home sales rebounded after the government rolled out tax credits for new home purchases, but have already started to fall in the face of a program end.

As a plugged-in reader correctly notes:

Even builders of more upscale homes have felt the impact of the looming deadline. That's because those move-up buyers will have trouble selling their homes without the incentive of the credit.

The only surprising thing about the decline, that it seems to have been "unexpected."

∙ U.S. New-Home Sales Fall as Credit Nears Expiration [Bloomberg]
∙ Whether Or Not Credits Moved The SF Market, Phase Out Hits Home [SocketSite]
∙ Clunker hangover knocks sales down at Chrysler, Ford, GM [USA Today]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

October 27, 2009

August S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues MOM Uptick

According to the August 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA gained 2.8% from July ’09 to August '09, down 12.5% year-over-year and down 39.3% from a peak in May 2006, but up from a 46.1% fall from peak as recorded in March 2009.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values gained 1.3% from July to August but remain down 30.2% from a peak in June 2006 (down 10.6% year-over-year).

While many of the markets remain down versus this time last year, the relative rate of decline has shown some real improvement. California, in particular, has seen some real positive prints in recent months. We see this general trend whether you look at the as-reported data or the seasonally adjusted figures.

Once again, however, we do want to remind people of the upcoming expiration of the Federal First-Time Buyer’s Tax Credit in November and anticipated higher unemployment rates through year-end. Both may have a dampening effect on home prices.

On a month-over-month basis San Francisco MSA single-family home prices rose across all three price tiers for the third time since May 2006, albeit only nominally at the top.

The bottom third (under $299,828 at the time of acquisition) gained 3.0% from July to August (down 20.4% YOY); the middle third gained 1.8% from July to August (down 10.8% YOY); and the top third (over $558,379 at the time of acquisition) gained 0.2% from July to August (down 12.5% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back to May 2000 levels having fallen 60% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around May 2002 levels having fallen 38% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is almost back to March 2004 levels having fallen 24% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.5% from July ’09 to August '09, down 15.7% on a year-over-year basis and down 27.9% from an October 2005 high. San Francisco was the only MSA to record a month over month decline.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Prices Continue to Improve According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index [S&P]
∙ July S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues MOM Uptick [SocketSite]
∙ Whether Or Not Credits Moved The SF Market, Phase Out Hits Home [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.7 Percent In September [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (43) | (email story)

October 22, 2009

Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Up 31.6% QOQ (Down 6.8% YOY)

Bay Area Notices of Default (NODs) in the third quarter of 2009 rose 25.2% on a year-over-year basis, up 72.0% in San Francisco proper (from 353 to 607). NOD activity in San Francisco increased 3.1% from the second to third quarter.

Actual Bay Area foreclosures in the third quarter fell 38.3% on a year-over-year basis (from 12,093 to 7,462) with Contra Costa (down 43.9% to 2,053), Alameda (down 30.2% to 1,760) and Santa Clara (down 42.9% to 1,237) leading the way with respect to volume.

Second quarter recorded foreclosures in San Francisco totaled 179, down 6.8% on a year-over-year basis but up 31.6% (43 homes) from the second quarter 2009. Expect San Francisco foreclosures to continue to rise over the next few quarters as moratorium delayed NODs work their way through the system.

∙ California Mortgage Defaults Trend Down Again [DataQuick]
∙ Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Up 34.7% QOQ (Down 3.5% YOY) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (62) | (email story)

October 21, 2009

RealFacts Reports Asking Rents Down 5.6% In San Francisco

As we wrote in April:

Based on a RealFacts survey of "professionally managed apartment complexes with 50 or more units," The Chronicle reports that average rents in San Francisco are off by a nominal 0.1 percent on a year-over-year basis and 95.8 percent occupancy (down 1.9 percent).

Unfortunately, and not too ironically, the RealFacts survey reflects the not so real market of asking rather than effective rents (after incentives). And keep in mind that over 700 units of new rental inventory has recently (or will soon) come on line in San Francisco and will need to be absorbed.

That new supply includes 192 units at Strata which offered a plugged-in reader a year of free parking and one month free rent, an effective discount of over 8 percent on a one year lease which wouldn't be reflected in the RealFacts survery of asking rents.

As the Chronicle and RealFacts report today, the average asking rents that were down 0.1 percent on a year-over-year basis in April are down 5.6% on a year-over-year basis today.

∙ RealFacts Reports (Not So Real) Asking Rents Flat In San Francisco [SocketSite]
∙ Apartment market moving on up [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (33) | (email story)

October 16, 2009

San Francisco County Unemployment At 9.7 Percent In September

Preliminary September labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.7%, 8.0% and 9.0% respectively, down 0.4 percentage points in San Francisco, down 0.3 percentage points in Marin, and down 0.2 percentage points in Marin from August.

While the number of unemployed in San Francisco decreased by 2,200 (from 45,600 to 43,400) in September, however, the number of employed fell by 2,600 (from 406,300 to 403,700) and the labor force contracted by 4,900 (from 452,000 to 447,100).

Overall California unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage points to 12.0%.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: September 2009 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 10.1 Percent In August [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

October 15, 2009

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In September: Up 17% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco jumped 17% on a year-over-year basis last month (536 recorded sales in September ’09 versus 458 sales in September ‘08) and rose 2.4% compared to the month prior. The difference between recorded and listed sales activity continues to be driven by unlisted new construction sales.

San Francisco's median sales price in September was $650,000, down 3.7% compared to September ’08 ($675,000) but up 2.4% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in September was up 4.8% on a year-over-year basis and up 4.8% from the month prior (7,879 recorded sales in September '09 versus 7,271 in August ’08 and 7,518 in August '09), while the recorded median sales price fell 8.8% on a year-over-year basis, up 1.4% compared to the month prior.

"This market may be closer to normal than it was a half year ago, but it's still out of kilter, fueled in large part by incentives and the processing of distressed properties. The sales mix is still lopsided, tilting toward the low end, and lending institutions are only making really safe mortgage loans. For those who can buy, there are some very attractive opportunities. But it still looks like a lot of normal supply-and-demand activity has been put on hold until the economy comes back," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

At the extremes, San Mateo recorded a 35.1% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 162 transactions) on a 5.5% drop in median sales price while Solano recorded a 5.0% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 32 transactions) on a 24.5% drop in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Slight uptick in Bay Area home sales and prices [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In August: Down 2.8% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ Listed San Francisco Single-Family Home September Sales: Down 4% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (33) | (email story)

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Jump With Prime And Alt-A Leading The Way

Foreclosure filings in the U.S. increased 29 percent on a year-over-year basis in September, but fell 4 percent as compared to August (a record high month).

Mounting foreclosures mean U.S. home prices probably will resume falling, analysts from Amherst Securities Group LP in New York said Sept. 23. A “shadow inventory” of 7 million properties are in the foreclosure process or likely to be seized, up from 1.27 million in 2005, they said.

The pace of prime and so-called alt-A loan defaults is accelerating as subprime defaults slow, Standard & Poor’s analysts led by Diane Westerback said yesterday in a report. Prime loans are those made to borrowers with the best credit records while alt-A loans are considered riskier because they were often granted without documenting the borrower’s income.

For the third quarter U.S. foreclosure filings jumped 23 percent year-over-year.

∙ U.S. Foreclosure Filings Jump 23% to Record in Third Quarter [Bloomberg]
∙ Subprime And Alt-A Statistics By County: The Feds Mortgage Map [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

October 14, 2009

Party Like It’s 1999: Dow Crosses 10,000 For The First Time In A Year

While unemployment in San Francisco crossed the ten mark in August (10.1%), today the Dow crossed its ten mark (10,000) for the first time in a year. And which it first did in 1999.

∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 10.1 Percent In August [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

October 13, 2009

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory: 10/13/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 2.8% over the past two weeks and is currently running 18.4% under last year’s levels on a year-over-year basis (down 24% for single-family homes and down 15% for condos/TICs) but is within five percent of listed inventory levels at the same point in 2006/2007.

Thirty-three (33) percent of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned or seeking a short sale is down to 9.5%.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/28/09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (57) | (email story)

Listed San Francisco Single-Family Home September Sales: Down 4%

Sales volume for listed single-family homes in San Francisco fell 4% on a year-over-year basis in September (184 transactions in 2008 versus 176 in 2009), down 10% versus August which is in line with an 11% seasonal drop in 2008.

The most significant drop in listed single-family home sales volume occurred in District 3, down 58% on a year-over-year basis (from 19 in 2008 to 9 in 2009) but with a 13% increase in median sales price (think mix).

On the other hand, listed single-family home sales volume in District 7 remained flat on a year-over-year basis at eight (8) sales but with a 20% drop in the median sales price and an average down 6%.

∙ Single Family Homes September ‘04, ‘06, ‘08, ‘09 [sanfranciscoschtuff.com]
∙ Listed San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales In August: Down 5% [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Real Estate Districts: Maps And Neighborhoods [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

October 5, 2009

A 25.7% Drop In Assessed Value For A Plugged-In Reader In 2009/10

A plugged-in reader reports:

So a year late and quite a few dollars short the Assessor's office granted my informal request for review and lowered my 09/10 assessed value by 25.7% from the "Prop 13 Base Year Value". So after saying my place gained value from Feb 2007 to January 2008 they now say it dropped at least 25% from January 08 to January 09 (and 22.7% from when I purchased it).

Once again, the average granted reduction for 2008/09 was 11.5%. And the San Francisco Tax Assessor’s tally for 2009/10 adjustments should be out soon. Tipsters?

UPDATE: Additional history with respect to the subject property, a 2/1 condo in District 6.

∙ Average Granted Assessed Value Reduction In San Francisco: 11.5% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (59) | (email story)

October 2, 2009

The Real Real Estate Killer Rises Up

As we wrote in January, the real real estate killer and story this year will be unemployment. It’s now up to (at least) 9.8 percent in the U.S. and 10.1 percent in San Francisco county.

∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]
∙ U.S. Economy: September Job Losses Exceed Forecast [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. Unemployment Probably Higher Than Reported, Silvia Says [Bloomberg]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 10.1 Percent In August [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (37) | (email story)

October 1, 2009

San Francisco’s Commercial Sublease Snapshot: October 2009

According to Colliers International, 2,659,684 square feet of commercial sublease space is currently on the market in San Francisco, down a net 61,396 square feet over the past 30 days but driven by withdrawn listings rather than absorption (negative 37,613 square feet).

The percentage of the space available for sublease that is currently vacant has risen from 49 to 55 percent.

∙ San Francisco’s Commercial Sublease Snapshot: September 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

September 30, 2009

Lemons To Lemons For Thirty Ex-Lembi Apartment Buildings

According to JK Dinnen, at least thirty (30) of the seventy-five (75) or so ex-Lembi owned San Francisco apartment buildings that had been taken back by the banks have been resold at discounts of 25 to 40 percent under what "the Lembis were paying for the buildings at the height of the market."

∙ Building buyers swoop on Lembi apartments [Business Times]
∙ The Chronicle Reports "Dozens," A Plugged-In Source Says Over 100 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

September 29, 2009

July S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues MOM Uptick

According to the July 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA gained 3.3% from June ’09 to July '09, down 17.9% year-over-year and down 41.0% from a peak in May 2006, but up from a 46.1% fall from peak as recorded in March 2009.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values gained 1.7% from June to July but remain down 31.1% from a peak in June 2006 (down 12.7% year-over-year).

These figures continue to support an indication of stabilization in national real estate values, but we do need to be cautious in coming months to assess whether the housing market will weather the expiration of the Federal First-Time Buyer’s Tax Credit in November, anticipated higher unemployment rates and a possible increase in foreclosures.

On a month-over-month basis San Francisco MSA single-family home prices rose across all three price tiers for the second time since May 2006.

The bottom third (under $287,849 at the time of acquisition) gained 1.9% from June to July (down 26.4% YOY); the middle third gained 1.3% from June to July (down 14.3% YOY); and the top third (over $533,113 at the time of acquisition) gained 1.8% from June to July (down 14.5% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA remain at April 2000 levels having fallen 61% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around April 2002 levels having fallen 39% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is back to February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA gained 2.1% from June ’09 to July '09, down 17.7% on a year-over-year basis and down 27.5% from an October 2005 high.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Broad Improvement in Home Prices According to S&P/Case-Shiller Index [S&P]
∙ June S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Up MOM Across All Tiers [SocketSite]
∙ March S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Slide Slows But Continues Fall [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 10.1 Percent In August [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (69) | (email story)

September 28, 2009

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/28/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 3.6% over the past two weeks but is currently running 11.3% under last year’s levels on a year-over-year basis (down 16.2% for single-family homes and down 7.8% for condos/TICs) and within two percent of listed inventory levels at the same point in 2006 and 2007.

Thirty-three (33) percent of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least one price reduction while the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned or seeking a short sale is down to 10%.

Keep in mind that listed sales volume in August was down ten percent on a year-over-year basis as well.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/14/09 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In August: Down 10% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (40) | (email story)

Record High Ratio Of Unemployed To Openings

At the end of 2001 US unemployed workers outnumbered job openings by a little over two to one, a ratio that climbed to almost three to one in 2003 but then fell to under two to one in 2004.

According to the New York Times and Bureau of Labor Statistics the ratio is currently six to one and climbing.

And while we don't have the ratio for San Francisco (tipsters?), San Francisco unemployment has reached double digits (10.1%) and a twenty-five year high.

∙ U.S. Job Seekers Exceed Openings by Record Ratio [NYT]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 10.1 Percent In August [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

September 25, 2009

U.S. New Home Sales Climb On Discounts And Foreclosures

“Sales of new U.S. homes climbed in August to the highest level in almost a year as builders cut prices at a record pace to compete with the foreclosures that are flooding the market for previously owned houses.”

∙ New-Home Sales in U.S. Climb to Almost One-Year High [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

September 21, 2009

San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 10.1 Percent In August

Preliminary August labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 10.1%, 8.3% and 9.2% respectively, up 0.2 percentage points in San Francisco and San Mateo and up 0.1 percentage points in Marin from June.

The 10.1% unemployment rate for San Francisco represents a new 25 year high.

The number of unemployed in San Francisco increased by 800 from 44,800 to 45,600 in August while the number of employed decreased by 3,000 (from 409,300 to 406,300) as the labor force decreased by 2,100 (from 454,100 to 452,000).

Overall California unemployment held steady at 12.1% percent in July.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: August 2009 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 9.9 Percent In July [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (36) | (email story)

September 18, 2009

Wells Fargo Adds 375K Feet To San Francisco’s Negative Absorption

"Wells Fargo has terminated its 375,000-square-foot lease at 155 Fifth St. in San Francisco, adding another empty building to an office leasing market with a nearly 20 percent vacancy rate."

∙ Wells Fargo calls quits at S.F. office building [Business Times]
∙ San Francisco's Office Availability Rate Up To 20 Percent In Q2 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

September 17, 2009

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In August: Down 2.8% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 2.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (514 recorded sales in August ’09 versus 529 sales in August ‘08) and fell 1.2% compared to the month prior. The difference between recorded and listed sales activity continues to be driven by unlisted new construction sales (think discounts and expiring tax incentives).

San Francisco's median sales price in August was $635,000, down 12.4% compared to August ’08 ($725,000) and down 1.2% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in August was up 4.0% on a year-over-year basis but down 14.3% from the month prior (7,518 recorded sales in August '09 versus 7,232 in August ’08 and 8,771 in July '09), while the recorded median sales price fell 19.5% on a year-over-year basis, down 8.9% compared to the month prior and ending a four month string of upticks.

At the extremes, Alameda recorded a 21.0% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 267 transactions) on a 22.7% drop in median sales price while Solano recorded a 13.2% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 79 transactions) on a 25.7% drop in median sales price

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area August home sales and median price fall [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In July: Down 10.8% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In August: Down 10% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (55) | (email story)

September 14, 2009

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/14/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 9.9% over the past two weeks in a typical post-Labor Day bounce. Listed inventory is currently running 6.2% under last year’s levels on a year-over-year basis (down 10.8% for single-family homes and down 2.9% for condos/TICs) and 2.7% lower than at the same point in 2006.

Roughly 31% of active listings in San Francisco having undergone at least once price reduction with the percentage of active listings that are currently either already bank owned or seeking a short sale hovering around 11%. Expect listed inventory levels to continue to climb over the next couple of months.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 8/30/09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

September 9, 2009

How A Mere Ten Percent Drop Becomes A Hundred Plus Percent Loss

From Bloomberg's story about a spike in "wealthy individuals’" bankruptcy filings related to real estate:

“Real estate is an incredible thing on the downside,” said Jason Green, a bankruptcy attorney based in Washington. “Equities can only go to zero. Property can go well below zero,” because of expenses such as property taxes, insurance and maintenance on primary residences, vacation homes and investment properties.

And then there's that oft touted leverage. Oh, and if we’re not mistaken the image that accompanies Bloomberg’s story looks rather local and familiar.

∙ Wealthy Families Face Bankruptcy on Real Estate Crash [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

September 8, 2009

San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In August: Down 10% YOY

While sales volume for listed single-family homes in San Francisco fell 5% on a year-over-year basis in August, condo sales volume fell 16.5% (176 transactions in August 2008 versus 147 in 2009), down 16% from July versus a 10% drop from July to August in 2008.

Combined listed single-family and condo sales volume dropped 10% YOY in August.

With respect to condos, the most pronounced drop in listed sales volume occurred in District 9, dropping 25% (from 67 sales in August of 2008 to 50 sales in August of 2009) on a 14% drop in median sales price from $700,000 to $600,000. Once again, think (and either thank or curse) new development sales offices discounting and stealing share.

On a percentage basis, the biggest drop in sales volume occured in District 5, down 35% from 29 to 19 on year-over-year basis in August on a 2% increase in median sales price but a 10% drop in average.

∙ Condos and Lofts August ‘04, ‘06, ‘08, ‘09 [sanfranciscoschtuff.com]
∙ Listed San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales In August: Down 5% [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In July: Down 13% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Real Estate Districts: Maps And Neighborhoods [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

September 4, 2009

San Francisco’s Commercial Sublease Snapshot: September 2009

According to Colliers International, 2,721,080 square feet of commercial sublease space is currently on the market in San Francisco (49% of which is currently vacant), up a net 266,000 square feet over the past 30 days.

∙ San Francisco’s Commercial Sublease Snapshot: August 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

U.S. Unemployment At 9.7 Percent, Two Tenths Below San Francisco

"The pace of U.S. job losses slowed in August as signs emerged that the recession is ending, while the unemployment rate reached a 26-year high [9.7%]....A rising jobless rate, stagnant wages and falling home values signal a lack of consumer spending may curb an economic recovery."

∙ U.S. Payroll Losses Slow, Unemployment Rises to 9.7% [Bloomberg]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 9.9 Percent In July [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

September 3, 2009

Listed San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales In August: Down 5%

Sales volume for listed single-family homes in San Francisco fell 5% on a year-over-year basis in August (206 transactions in 2008 versus 196 in 2009), down 12% versus July and versus a 6% drop fom July to August in 2008 according to San Francisco Schtuff.

The most significant drop in listed single-family home sales volume occurred in District 5, down 56% on a year-over-year basis (from 36 in 2008 to 16 in 2009) but with a 3% increase in median sales price (think mix of what's selling).

On the other hand, listed single-family home sales volume in District 1 doubled from 8 to 16 on a year-over-year basis on a 22% drop in the median sales and sales volume in Distruct 7 was flat at ten transactions on a 32% drop in median price.

∙ Single Family Homes August ‘04, ‘06, ‘08, ‘09 [sanfranciscoschtuff.com]
∙ Listed San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales In July: Up 2% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Real Estate Districts: Maps And Neighborhoods [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (21) | (email story)

August 31, 2009

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 8/30/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco declined 10.3% over the past four weeks which is not to be unexpected leading up to Labor Day weekend. Listed inventory is currently running 1.5% under last year’s levels on a year-over-year basis (down 17.3% for single-family homes, up 11.2% for condos/TICs) and 12.7% higher than at the same point in 2006.

Roughly 37% of active listings in San Francisco having undergone at least once price reduction with the percentage of active listings that are currently either already bank owned or seeking a short sale hovering around 12%. Expect listed inventory levels to quickly jump around 20% after Labor Day.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 8/03/09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

August 26, 2009

Cash For Closings Has Intended New Home Sales Results

Boosted by an expiring $8,000 tax credit for new-home buyers, the pace of U.S. new home sales increased 9.6 percent from June to July.

The jump in sales was led by a 32 percent surge in the Northeast. Purchases increased 16 percent in the South and 1 percent in the West. They dropped 7.6 percent in the Midwest.

At the same time, however, both sales volume and the median sales price for new homes remain down on a year-over-year basis (down 13 and 12 percent respectively).

∙ U.S. New Home Sales Jump 9.6%, Most in Four Years [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

August 25, 2009

June S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Up MOM Across All Tiers

According to the June 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA gained 3.8% from May ’09 to June '09, down 22.0% year-over-year and down 42.9% from a peak in May 2006, but up from a 46.1% fall from peak as recorded in March 2009.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values gained 1.5% from May to June but remain down 32.3% from a peak in June 2006 (down 15.1% year-over-year).

While not alone, Las Vegas and Detroit continue to be two markets that are struggling severely. These are the only two markets that fell in June and saw deterioration in their annual rates of return. Since their relative peaks they have fallen 54.3% and 45.3%, respectively.

On a month-over-month basis San Francisco MSA single-family home prices rose across all three price tiers for the first time since May 2006.

The bottom third (under $276,283 at the time of acquisition) gained 0.8% from May to June (down 30.7% YOY); the middle third gained 2.8% from May to June (down 15.5% YOY); and the top third (over $507,504 at the time of acquisition) gained 2.4% from May to June (down 16.6% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are hovering around April 2000 levels having fallen 62% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around April 2002 levels having fallen 40% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is back to January 2004 levels having fallen 26% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA gained 2.8% from May ’09 to June '09, down 21.6% on a year-over-year basis and down 29.0% from an October 2005 high.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Prices on an Upswing in the Second Quarter of 2009 [S&P]
∙ May S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Top Tier Up, Bottom Down [SocketSite]
∙ March S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Slide Slows But Continues Fall [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (275) | (email story)

August 21, 2009

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In July: Down 10.8% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 10.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (543 recorded sales in July ’09 versus 609 sales in July ‘08) and fell 3.2% compared to the month prior. The difference between recorded and listed sales activity continues to be driven by unlisted new construction sales.

San Francisco was once again one of only two Bay Area counties to record a year-over-year decline in sales volume in July with Marin falling 4.3%. San Francisco's median sales price in July was $642,426, down 14.2% compared to July ’08 ($749,000) and up 1.2% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in July was up 15.6% on a year-over-year basis and up 1.5% from the month prior (8,771 recorded sales in July '09 versus 7,586 in July ’08 and 8,644 in June '09), while the recorded median sales price fell 16.0% on a year-over-year basis, up 12.2% compared to the month prior (the fourth uptick in 19 months).

The median’s $43,000 gain between June and July was mainly the result of a shift toward a greater portion of sales occurring in higher-priced neighborhoods. The trend has been fueled this summer by several factors, including: More distress in high-end areas, leading to more motivated sellers; more buyers sensing a bottom could be near; and increased availability of larger home loans, which had become more expensive and far more difficult to obtain after the credit crunch hit two years ago.

In another sign of a gradual comeback in home financing, the percentage of Bay Area homes purchased last month with an adjustable-rate mortgage rose to 6.6 percent – up from a record low of 3.0 percent in January 2009. The median sale price for homes purchased with those adjustable-rate loans last month was $766,500, while the median loan amount was $523,500. Adjustable-rate mortgages averaged about 61 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans this decade up until the credit crunch, after which they began to dry up quickly.

At the extremes, Santa Clara recorded a 32.5% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 639 transactions) on a 16.3% drop in median sales price while Solano recorded a 20.8% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 123 transactions) on a 27.3% drop in median sales price

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area home sales hit 4-year high; median price up [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In June: Down 1.8% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In July: Down 13% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ Infinity Sales Update: New Contracts Up But Driven By Discounts [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (57) | (email story)

San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 9.9 Percent In July

Preliminary July labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.9%, 8.2% and 9.0% respectively, up 0.1 percentage points for San Francisco and San Mateo and up 0.2 percentage points in Marin from June.

The 9.9% unemployment rate for San Francisco represents a new 25 year high.

The number of unemployed in San Francisco increased by 700 from 44,100 to 44,800 in July while the number of employed increased by 3,500 (from 405,800 to 409,300) as the labor force increased by 4,200 (from 449,900 to 454,100).

According to the State of California versus the Labor Department, overall California unemployment has broken through the 12 percent mark (12.1% percent in July).

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: July 2009 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Jumps To 9.8 Percent In June [SocketSite]
∙ It’s Funny What Happens When People Are Forced To Sell, They Do [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

It’s Funny What Happens When People Are Forced To Sell, They Do

While the pace of existing U.S. home sales increased 7.3 percent from June to July (the biggest monthly gain "since records began in 1999") and 5 percent year-over-year, forced sales are driving the activity (31 percent of sales in July were either foreclosures or distressed) and driving the median price down (15 percent on a year-over-year basis).

At the same time, inventory also increased by 7.3 percent, months of unsold inventory remained at 9.4, and U.S. unemployment continued to rise with California hitting 11.9%.

∙ Existing Home Sales in U.S. Jump to Two-Year High [Bloomberg]
∙ Jobless Rates Rise in 26 U.S. States; California’s Hits 11.9% [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

August 20, 2009

New Subprime Foreclosures Ease But Prime Foreclosures Exacerbate

From Bloomberg:

Americans fell behind on their mortgage payments at a record pace in the second quarter as job losses and falling real estate prices thwarted government efforts to stabilize the housing market.

The share of loans with one or more payments overdue rose to a seasonally adjusted 9.24 percent of all mortgages, an all- time high, from 9.12 percent in the first quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report today. The inventory of homes in foreclosure increased to 4.3 percent, the most in three decades of data, and loans overdue by at least 90 days, the point at which foreclosure proceedings typically begin, rose to 7.97 percent, the highest on record.

“We’ve seen a significant drop in the problem with subprime loans and we’ve moved now to a problem with prime fixed-rate loans,” Jay Brinkmann, the Washington-based trade group’s chief economist, said in an interview. “Job losses are driving it, and we expect that to continue into next year.”

∙ Mortgage Delinquencies Rise to Record as U.S. Home Prices Fall [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

August 17, 2009

Shacking Up In San Francisco To Save Some Shekels

"Facing layoffs, pay cuts and furloughs, more people have turned to shared housing to help make ends meet. Craigslist, the online classified ad giant, says that its roommate-wanted postings over the past 12 months are up...85 percent within San Francisco."

∙ More share space to shave costs in recession [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

August 12, 2009

San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In July: Down 13% YOY

While sales volume for listed single-family homes in San Francisco gained 2% on a year-over-year basis in July, condo sales volume fell 28.5% (228 transactions in July 2008 versus 163 in 2009), up 16% from June versus a 27% increase from June to July in 2008.

Combined listed single-family and condo sales volume dropped 13% YOY in July.

With respect to condos, the most pronounced drop in listed sales volume occurred in District 9, dropping 34% (from 88 sales in July of 2008 to 54 sales in July of 2009) on a 23% drop in median sales price from $749,500 to $577,500. Once again, think (and either thank or curse) new development sales offices discounting and stealing share.

Listed condo sales volume in District 5 dropped from 36 to 30 sales year-over-year in July on a 17% drop in median sales price and an 18% drop in average.

∙ Condos and Lofts July ‘04, ‘06, ‘08, ‘09 [sanfranciscoschtuff.com]
∙ Listed San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales In July: Up 2% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In June: Down 14% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Real Estate Districts: Maps And Neighborhoods [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (35) | (email story)

August 4, 2009

Listed San Francisco Single-Family Home Sales In July: Up 2% YOY

Sales volume for listed single-family homes in San Francisco gained a nominal 2% on a year-over-year basis in July (218 transactions in 2008 versus 223 in 2009), up 9% versus June and versus flat from June to July in 2008 according to San Francisco Schtuff.

The most significant gain in listed single-family home sales volume occurred in District 5, up 41% on a year-over-year basis (from 32 in 2008 to 45 in 2009) but on a 21% drop in median sales price (a 26% drop in average).

On the other hand, listed single-family home sales volume in District 4 fell 42% on a year-over-year basis (from 33 in 2008 to 19 in 2009) on almost no change in median sales price but a 12% drop in average.

∙ Single Family Homes July ‘04, ‘06, ‘08, ‘09 [sanfranciscoschtuff.com]
∙ Listed San Francisco Single-Family Home June Sales: Down 6% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Real Estate Districts: Maps And Neighborhoods [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (52) | (email story)

Add A Garage Condo Apartment (Or Two): 1810-1812 Pacific Avenue

Yesterday we saw the "rent to own" posts coming when the listings for 1810 and 1812 Pacific were withdrawn from the MLS. Little did we know they were actually already here.

∙ $7200 / 3br - GORGEOUS New Construction 3-level Townhome [Criagslist]
∙ Add A Garage Condo (Or Two): 1810-1812 Pacific Avenue [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

U.S. Pending Home Resales Up, U.S. Personal Incomes Down

Pending sales of existing U.S. homes are up while personal incomes are down. As previously outlined, locally a lot will likely come down to (un)employment.

∙ Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Surge 3.6% [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. Incomes Fall 1.3%, Biggest Drop in Four Years [Bloomberg]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Jumps To 9.8 Percent In June [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

August 3, 2009

San Francisco’s Commercial Sublease Snapshot

According to Colliers International, 2,454,475 square feet of commercial sublease space is currently on the market in San Francisco (54% of which is currently vacant), down a net 148,911 square feet over the past 30 days driven by withdrawn listings rather than newly signed subleases of which there was only one in July (for a total of 4,460 square feet).

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 8/03/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco declined 6.4% over the past two weeks (versus an average drop of 1.3% for the same two week period over the previous three years) and is now running just 1.3% higher on a year-over-year basis (down 12.6% for single-family homes, up 11.7% for condos/TICs) and 5.3% higher than at the same point in 2006.

Roughly 37% of active listings in San Francisco having undergone at least once price reduction with the percentage of active listings that are currently either already bank owned or seeking a short sale hovering around 12%. Expect listed inventory to continue to decline through the rest of summer and then spike in late September.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 7/13/09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (33) | (email story)

July 29, 2009

Beige Book Results: Real Estate and Construction Remain Weak

The Real Estate and Construction summary from the latest Federal Reserve regional business survey (a.k.a. The Beige Book) for the twelfth district ("San Francisco"):

Conditions in District housing markets remained very weak but showed further signs of improvement, while demand for commercial real estate continued to erode. Sales prices for new and existing homes fell further in most parts of the District, and home construction activity remained at very low levels. Combined with low mortgage rates, however, price declines have propelled a sustained pickup in the pace of home sales in many areas.

Demand for commercial real estate fell further, and with rising vacancy rates, tenants have successfully been requesting rent concessions and other new terms on existing leases. Construction activity for commercial properties also continued to fall, and contacts noted that a lack of available credit remained a constraint for construction activity and investment transactions in some areas.

To summarize the summary, residential sales volume is up on falling prices and commercial is getting squeezed. Nothing that should catch a plugged-in person by surprise.

∙ Federal Reserve: Beige Book Twelfth District Summary (7/29/09) [federalreserve.gov]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (26) | (email story)

July 28, 2009

May S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Top Tier Up, Bottom Down

According to the May 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA gained 1.4% from April ’09 to May '09, down 26.1% year-over-year and down 45.0% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values gained 0.4% from April to May but are down 33.3% from a peak in June 2006 (down 16.8% year-over-year).

As of May 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to where they were in the middle of 2003, indicating that the three years of appreciation that occurred from 2003-2006 were all given back in the following three years. From the peak in the second quarter of 2006, the 10-City Composite is down 33.3% and the 20-City Composite is down 32.3%.

San Francisco MSA single-family home prices continued to fall across the bottom one-third in terms of price tiers but showed gains at the top.

The bottom third (under $266,630 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.5% from April to May (down 33.3% YOY); the middle third gained 1.0% from April to May (down 18.2% YOY); and the top third (over $485,728 at the time of acquisition) gained 3.8% from April to May (down 19.6% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to March 2000 levels having fallen 62% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is hovering around March 2002 levels having fallen 42% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is back to November 2003 levels having fallen 28% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA gained 2.3% from April ’09 to May '09, down 24.7% on a year-over-year basis and down 31.0% from an October 2005 high.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Price Declines Continue to Abate In May According to S&P/Case-Shiller [S&P]
∙ April S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Top Tier Flatish, Others Fall [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (106) | (email story)

July 23, 2009

Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Up 34.7% QOQ (Down 3.5% YOY)

Bay Area Notices of Default (NODs) in the second quarter of 2009 rose 7.3% on a year-over-year basis, up 40.9% in San Francisco proper (from 418 to 589). NOD activity in San Francisco increased 3.5% from the first to second quarter.

Actual Bay Area foreclosures in the second quarter fell 25.4% on a year-over-year basis (from 9,293 to 6,929) with Contra Costa (down 30.9% to 2,048), Alameda (down 18.4% to 1,466) and Santa Clara (down 22.4% to 1,210) leading the way with respect to volume.

Second quarter recorded foreclosures in San Francisco totaled 136, down 3.5% on a year-over-year basis but up 34.7% (35 homes) from the first quarter 2009. Expect San Francisco foreclosures to rise dramatically over the next few of quarters as moratorium delayed NODs work their way through the system.

∙ California Second Quarter Mortgage Defaults Edge Down [DataQuick]
∙ Actual Q1 San Francisco Foreclosures Fall But Notices Of Default Spike [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (52) | (email story)

July 17, 2009

San Francisco County Unemployment Jumps To 9.8 Percent In June

Preliminary June labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.8%, 8.0% and 8.9% respectively, up 0.7 percentage points for San Francisco and up 0.5 percentage points Marin and San Mateo in May.

The 9.8% unemployment rate for San Francisco in June represents a new 25 year high.

The number of unemployed in San Francisco increased by 3,300 from 40,800 to 44,100 in June while the number of employed fell by 1,300 (from 407,100 to 405,800) as the labor force increased by 1,900 (from 448,000 to 449,900), a net loss of 5,100 over the past three months.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: June 2009 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 9.1 Percent In May '09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (21) | (email story)

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In June: Down 1.8% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell just 1.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (561 recorded sales in June ’09 versus 571 sales in June ‘08) and rose 12.7% compared to the month prior. The difference between recorded and listed sales activity speaks to a spike in unlisted closings, generally new construction or bank-owned sales that we'll once again characterize as being driven by discounting.

San Francisco was only one of two Bay Area counties to record a year-over-year decline in sales volume in June with Napa recording a 4.4% decline. San Francisco's median sales price in June was $635,000, down 12.6% compared to June ’08 ($726,750) and up a nominal 0.2% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in June was up 20.4% on a year-over-year basis and up 16.1% from the month prior (8,644 recorded sales in June '09 versus 7,178 in June ’08 and 7,447 in May '09), while the recorded median sales price fell 27.4% on a year-over-year basis, up 3.1% compared to the month prior (the third uptick in 18 months).

Last month 37.3 percent of all homes resold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months, down from 40.5 percent in May and the lowest since 36.0 percent in August 2008. The peak was 52.0 percent in February this year. By county, foreclosure resales ranged last month from 6.3 percent of all resales in Marin to 62.7 percent in Solano.

Use of government-insured FHA loans – a common choice among first-time buyers – represented 24.1 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans in June, down from a record 26 percent in April but up from 10.7 percent a year ago.

At the extreme, Solano recorded a 66.5% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 340 transactions) on a 38.3% drop in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area home sales and median price rise [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In May: Down 16.0% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In June: Down 14% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ Infinity Sales Update: New Contracts Up But Driven By Discounts [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

July 16, 2009

San Francisco Real Estate Barometer: Three Negatives And A Neutral

According to San Francisco’s latest Economic Barometer, the average asking rent for one-bedrooms in the city fell 6.3% from April to May and is down 15.4% year-over-year while the commercial average asking lease rate has fallen 30.6% year-over-year.

The City’s five-year position for Median Home Sales Price (currently "neutral") and Commercial Average Asking Lease Rate (currently "negative"): "weak" on rising unemployment.

∙ San Francisco Monthly Economic Barometer - May 2009 [SFGov]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 9.1 Percent In May '09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

July 14, 2009

Ten Below Over Freezing. Except For That One At Twenty-Nine...

If you read Bloomberg yesterday you learned that the past three Decorator Showcase homes in San Francisco are on the market, and that this year’s showcase (2830 Pacific) "was listed at $12.9 million in April and the price was reduced in May."

“Things reached a fever pitch two years ago when people thought they could do no wrong in real estate,” said Malin Giddings, co-listing agent for this year’s seven-bedroom, six- bathroom home. “Now the game is over.”

You were also told that the "last time a house in San Francisco fetched at least $10 million was in June 2008, according to the city assessor-recorder office."

Of course plugged-in people know that 2830 Pacific was actually asking $15,500,000 before being listed in April (and then reduced in May), and that it’s more like six out of the past ten showcase homes that are struggling to find buyers.

Oh, and 2799 Broadway (A.K.A. 37 Raycliff Terrace) sold for $29 million in September 2008. But hey, who are we to quibble with Bloomberg.

∙ Mansion Glut in Pelosi’s San Francisco Neighborhood Slows Sales [Bloomberg]
∙ Another Ex-Decorator Showcase Is Officially Listed: 2500 Divisadero [SocketSite]
∙ 2009 Decorator Showcase (2830 Pacific) Opens Its Doors And Kimono [SocketSite]
∙ Showcasing A Designer Price Cut: 2830 Pacific Sheds Another 29% [SocketSite]
∙ The SocketSite Scoop On 37 Raycliff Terrace (A.K.A. 2799 Broadway) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

July 13, 2009

San Francisco's Office Availability Rate Up To 20 Percent In Q2 2009

"CBRE says that downtown San Francisco’s availability rate for office space has now cracked 20 percent. It predicts that the city “will soon pass its all-time availability rate of 20.6 percent.” The brokerage reports that the city saw a 778,000-square-foot net vacant increase in vacant space [in Q2]."

∙ Office space availability tops 20 percent mark [San Francisco Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 7/13/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco declined 3.1% over the past two weeks (versus an average gain of 4.3% for the same two week period over the previous three years and a 0.3% drop in 2008) and is now running 6.7% higher on a year-over-year basis (down 4.1% for single-family homes, up 14.5% for condos/TICs) and 11.3% higher than at the same point in 2006.

The drop in inventory is being driven by both sales (down 14% YOY in June) and a seasonal withdrawing of listings, with just under 38% of active listings in San Francisco having undergone at least once price reduction (up from just over 32% at the same time last year). The percentage of active listings in San Francisco that are currently either already bank owned or seeking a short sale remains at just over 13%.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/29/09 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In June: Down 14% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (39) | (email story)

July 9, 2009

San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In June: Down 14% YOY

While sales volume for listed single-family homes in San Francisco fell 6% on a year-over-year basis in June, condo sales volume fell 22% (180 transactions in June 2008 versus 140 in 2009), up 27% from May and versus a 14% drop over the same period in 2008.

Combined listed single-family and condo sales volume dropped 14% YOY in June.

With respect to condos, the most pronounced drop in listed sales volume occurred in District 9, dropping 36% (from 64 sales in June of 2008 to 41 sales in June of 2009) on a 23% drop in median sales price from $769,500 to $595,000. Think (and either thank or curse) new development sales offices discounting and stealing share.

∙ Condos and Lofts June ‘04, ‘06, ‘08, ‘09 [sanfranciscoschtuff.com]
∙ Listed San Francisco Single-Family Home June Sales: Down 6% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In May: Down 37% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Real Estate Districts: Maps And Neighborhoods [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

July 8, 2009

PMI’s Market Risk Index Report: 1st Quarter 2009

According to the latest PMI Market Risk Index, the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City MSAD ended the first quarter of 2009 with a 66.2% likelihood of house price declines over the next two years, up from 31.6% in the fourth quarter of 2008, up from 30.2% in the fourth quarter of 2007, and up from 39.5% at the beginning of 2005.

The likelihood of decline for a few other nearby areas: Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville (99.9%), Oakland-Fremont-Hayward (96.4%), San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara (78.4%).

Keep in mind that the PMI Market Risk Index is tied to the OFHEO house price index which "excludes jumbo loans and the large portion of subprime and Alt-A loans that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don’t participate in."

· Economic and Real Estate Trends: 2nd Quarter 2009 [PMI Group]
∙ PMI’s Market Risk Index And Real Estate Trends Report: Spring 2008 [SocketSite]
∙ Economic And Real Estate Trends: Spring 2005 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (26) | (email story)

July 7, 2009

Listed San Francisco Single-Family Home June Sales: Down 6% YOY

Sales volume for listed single-family homes in San Francisco fell 6% on a year-over-year basis in June (219 transactions in 2008 versus 205 in 2009), up 19% versus May (and versus a 6% drop from May to June in 2008) according to San Francisco Schtuff.

Listed single-family home sales in "Prime" District 7 nearly doubled on a year-over-year basis (from 10 in 2008 to 17 in 2009), but on a 43% drop in median sales price (a 48% drop in average).

∙ Single Family Homes June ‘04, ‘06, ‘08, ‘09 [sanfranciscoschtuff.com]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In May: Down 37% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Real Estate Districts: Maps And Neighborhoods [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

July 6, 2009

QuickLinks: Thank Goodness That Foreclosure Crisis Is Over…

∙ New Evidence on the Foreclosure Crisis [WSJ]
∙ Another wave of foreclosures is poised to strike [LA Times]
∙ A New All-Time High (Or Rather Low) For U.S. Prime Delinquencies [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

July 1, 2009

San Francisco Retail Space Update: Vacancy Rate Up Four-ish Fold

According to Colliers International retail broker Ross Portugeis, "San Francisco’s retail vacancy rate leaped in the past year from 3 or 4 percent to 12 or 13 percent" but Portugeis feels the market started stabilizing in May. As always, time and SocketSite will tell.

And according to Edward Plant of Edward Plant Co. Inc. which specializes in leasing San Francisco retail space, the strongest markets/streets currently include Chestnut, Castro and Hayes, while the weakest include Union, Fillmore and Valencia.

No mention of the numerous still vacant retail spaces in new developments across town.

∙ Empty stores boost lease deals [San Francisco Examiner]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

June 30, 2009

A New All-Time High (Or Rather Low) For U.S. Prime Delinquencies

The delinquency rate for prime mortgages over 60 days behind continued to climb from 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 2.9% through March 31, 2009 (up from 1.1% at the same point in 2008) as "first-time foreclosure filings on [prime] loans rose 22 percent from the fourth quarter."

The delinquency rate for prime mortgages in the U.S. has hit a new all-time high (or perhaps low). And overall, "mortgages 60 days or more past due rose 88 percent from last year." You know, when it was simply a subprime problem.

∙ U.S. Prime Delinquency Rate Doubles, Alt-A Approaches 10% [SocketSite]
∙ Delinquencies Double on Least-Risky Loans, U.S. Says [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

April S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Top Tier Flatish, Others Fall

According to the April 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA gained 0.6% from March ’09 to April '09, down 28.0% year-over-year and down 45.8% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.7% from March to April and are down 33.6% from a peak in June 2006 (down 18.0% year-over-year).

In addition to the 10-City and 20-City Composites, 13 of the 20 metro areas also saw improvement in their annual return compared to that of March. Furthermore, every metro area, except for Charlotte, recorded an improvement in monthly returns over March. While one month’s data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun; it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions. We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here.

San Francisco MSA single-family home prices continued to fall across the bottom two-thirds in terms of price tiers, but gained nominally at the top.

The bottom third (under $265,194 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.8% from March to April (down 35.4% YOY); the middle third fell 0.7% from March to April (down 19.5% YOY); and the top third (over $479,157 at the time of acquisition) gained 0.2% from March to April (down 21.9% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated below April 2000 levels having fallen 62% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has fallen to November 2001 levels having fallen 42% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third is holding at April 2003 levels having fallen 30% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA gained 0.3% from March ’09 to April '09, down 26.9% on a year-over-year basis and down 32.5% from an October 2005 high.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ The Pace of Home Price Declines Moderate in April According to S&P/Case-Shiller [S&P]
∙ March S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Slide Slows But Continues Fall [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (65) | (email story)

June 29, 2009

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/29/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco declined 0.7% over the past two weeks (versus an average drop of 2.6% for the same two week period over the previous three years) and is now running 9.8% higher on a year-over-year basis (down 0.5% for single-family homes and up 16.9% for condos/TICs) and 24.4% higher than at the same point in 2006.

Just under 39% of active listings in San Francisco have undergone at least once price reduction (up from just over 32% at the same time last year). And just over 12% of active listings in San Francisco are currently either already bank owned or seeking a short sale.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/15/09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

Past Performance Recoveries Are No Guarantee Of Future Results

"The residential real estate market improved ahead of the end of the past seven contractions, with home construction starts beginning to climb an average of seven months before gross domestic product picked up and sales gaining about four months in advance, according to data compiled by David Berson, chief economist of PMI Group, a mortgage insurer in Walnut Creek, California."

∙ Housing in Peril as Obama Fails to Get Financing Breakthrough [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

June 23, 2009

QuickLinks: A Foreclosure Triptych

∙ Home Resales in U.S. Rise 2.4% in May to 4.77M Rate Amid Foreclosures [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. Home Prices Drop 6.8 Percent in April as Foreclosures Rise [Bloomberg]
∙ Housing Eludes Recovery as Job Losses, Foreclosures Climb [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

June 19, 2009

San Francisco County Unemployment Up To 9.1 Percent In May '09

Preliminary May labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 9.1%, 7.5% and 8.4% respectively, up 0.3 percentage points from April across the board.

The 9.1% unemploment rate for San Francisco in May represents a new 25 year high.

Extending the observations of a plugged-in reader last month, the number of unemployed in San Francisco increased by 1,000 from 39,800 to 40,800 in May while the number of employed fell by 5,800 (from 412,900 to 407,100) as the labor force fell by 4,800 (from 452,800 to 448,000), a loss of 7,000 over the past two months.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: May 2009 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Dips To 8.8 Percent In April '09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (44) | (email story)

June 18, 2009

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In May: Down 16.0% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 16.0% on a year-over-year basis last month (498 recorded sales in May ’09 versus 593 sales in May ‘08) but rose 23.9% compared to the month prior. The difference between recorded and listed sales activity speaks to a spike in unlisted closings, up 46% YOY and generally new construction or bank-owned sales that we'll once again characterize as being driven by discounting.

San Francisco continued to experience the sharpest year-over-year decline in sales volume of any Bay Area county in May with Marin the only other county recording a decline (-2.7%). San Francisco's median sales price in May was $634,000, down 19.7% compared to May ’08 ($790,000) but up a nominal 0.9% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in May was up 19.8% on a year-over-year basis and up 4.3% from the month prior (7,447 recorded sales in May '09 versus 6,216 in May ’08 and 7,139 in April '09), while the recorded median sales price fell 33.9% on a year-over-year basis, up 12.3% compared to the month prior (the second uptick in 18 months).

Last month 42.1 percent of all homes resold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months, down from 46.4 percent in April and the lowest since the figure was 41.6 percent last September. A year ago the percentage was 27.7 percent, while the peak was 52.0 percent this February. By county, foreclosure resales ranged last month from 7.7 percent of all resales in San Francisco to 65.1 percent in Solano.

The use of government-insured FHA loans – a common choice among first-time buyers – represented a 24.5 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans in May, down slightly from a record of 26.0 percent in April but up from 7.3 percent a year ago.

At the extremes, Solano recorded a 51.8% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 241 transactions) on a 36.8% drop in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 40.5% year-over-year increase in sales volume on a 39.9% drop in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Uptick in Bay Area home sales and median price [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In April: Down 33.6% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In May: Down 37% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ Infinity Sales Update: New Contracts Up But Driven By Discounts [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

June 17, 2009

Marcus & Millichap Changes Their San Francisco 2009 Rental Outlook

As we wrote in January:

The Marcus & Millichap rental outlook for 2009 in San Francisco: rents up 3.3% on 400 new units in professionally managed apartment buildings with at least 20 units.

Our comment (at the risking of stealing a bit of our own outlook thunder): we believe Marcus & Millichap is significantly underestimating both the number and impact of "shadow” market units for rent in San Francisco (which they deem to be "barely a factor") as well as the effective number of new units for rent that will hit the market in 2009.

A new report from Marcus & Millichap, however, now calls for a 8.9% drop in residential rents in San Francisco by the end of the year, a dramatic 12.2 point swing in their forecast over the past six months. Our outlook and original rebuttal haven't changed.

UPDATE: A plugged-in reader adds:

There have been more drastic decreases in SOMA. I wanted to move there last year but asking rents were north of 3500 for 2bd/2ba in most complexes (avalon, bayside, archstone). I just rented the same 2bd/2ba for 2700 (2800 with parking) with a better layout and more sq footage.

That's a 23% drop (and some good shopping) for "somaboy," and a tough trend in terms of (E)arnings for investors who paid a high (P)rice based on wildly different expectations.

∙ Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Rental Outlook (And Quick Rebuttal) [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (76) | (email story)

June 15, 2009

Are The "Exceptions" (And Big Losses) Becoming A Palms Rule?

What some are wont to characterize as San Francisco "exceptions" are quickly becoming the rule for two-bedroom condo re-sales at The Palms (555 4th Street).

While #401 closed escrow with a reported contract price of $599,900 in January (purchased for $779,000 in October 2006), and #313 is still seeking a short sale at $599,900 (purchased for $800,000 in January 2007), the list price for #731 has been reduced to a "bank approved price" of $619,000 (purchased for $925,000 in August 2006).

555 4th Street #823 is currently in contract having been listed at $605,000 (purchased for $815,000 in January 2007). And the only other two-bedroom currently listed at The Palms is #309, purchased for $842,500 in September 2006 and currently seeking $670,000.

Once again, all two-bedroom condos with declines in value ranging from 23% to 33% since late 2006/early 2007. Of course that's assuming sales at list.

∙ Listing: 555 4th Street #309 (2/2) 1,113 sqft - $670,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 555 4th Street #313 (2/2) 1,111 sqft - $599,900 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 555 4th Street #731 (2/2) 1,052 sqft - $619,000 [MLS]
∙ Pushing Forward With Price Discovery At The Palms (555 4th Street) [SocketSite]
∙ A SoMa/Palms Wake Up Call (And Apple): 555 4th Street #401 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (66) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/15/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco declined 1.9% over the past two weeks (versus an average increase of 8.5% for the same two week period over the previous three years) and is now running 9.0% higher on a year-over-year basis (down 4.2% for single-family homes and up 18.1% for condos/TICs) and 22.7% higher than at the same point in 2006.

At the same time, listed sales activity has fallen by 37% on a year-over-year basis with the effective mid-June months of inventory based on sales velocity in May rising roughly 72% on a year-over-year basis from 3.4 months in 2008 to 5.8 months in 2009, and up 108% from 2.8 months in 2006.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/01/09 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In May: Down 37% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (33) | (email story)

June 12, 2009

JustQuotes: It's A Good Time To Be A New Tenant In San Francisco

"Tenant-starved San Francisco office landlords are laying on the concessions. A new report from the tenant brokerage Studley shows property owners are now shelling out an average of $45 per square foot in concessions to tenants willing to ink a long-term deal. The amount of free rent owners are doling out has jumped to seven months, while tenant improvement allowances are now averaging $50 a square foot. Studley says asking rents are down 30 to 50 percent in many buildings and tenant demand is off 40 percent. Average Class A asking rent is $34.74 a square foot, down 25.3 percent from last year..."

∙ S.F. landlords entice tenants with concessions [San Francisco Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

June 11, 2009

Mortgage Rates Continue To Climb (And It's All The Russians' Fault)

The average 30-year U.S. mortgage rate bumped up 30 basis points over the past week to 5.59 percent, a 68 basis point jump over the past two weeks. Of course we're kidding about it being all the Russians' fault, but they do come into play.

∙ Mortgage Rates in U.S. Rise to Highest Since November [Bloomberg]
∙ A Six Month High For Mortgage Rates (But Still Historically Cheap) [SocketSite]
∙ BRICs Buy IMF Debt to Join Big Leagues, Goldman Says [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

June 10, 2009

San Francisco Listed Sales Volume In May: Down 37% YOY

Sales volume for listed single-family homes and condos in San Francisco fell 37% on a year-over-year basis in May according to San Francisco Schtuff, with listed single-family home sales down 27% (235 transactions in 2008 versus 172 in 2009) and condo sales down 48% (210 transactions in 2008 versus 110 in 2009).

The biggest drops in sales volume occurred in Districts 8 (down 55%), 5 (down 43%) and 2 (down 43%). Not a single district (nope, not even the much maligned but now suddenly "real" 10) recorded a year-over-year sales "rebound."

Tomorrow Monday, the medians.

UPDATE (6/11): In case you don't know your Districts: San Francisco Real Estate Districts: Maps And Neighborhoods.

∙ Single Family Homes May 2004 v. 2006 v. 2008 v. 2009 [SFSchtuff]
∙ Condo and Loft Sales May 2004 v. 2006 v. 2008 v. 2009 [SFSchtuff]
∙ No Rebound For You! (In Fact A Below Average Seasonality Bump) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (62) | (email story)

June 8, 2009

A Few More Numbers For The Most Recent Lembi Twelve

Some additional numbers on the twelve properties the Lembis put on the market in May:

Lembi hopes to generate $43 million in revenue from the disposition, which equates to approximately $185,000 per unit, approximately 50% of replacement cost and a significant discount to what it paid to acquire the properties.

The buildings may sell as a group or individually. Most were constructed in the first quarter of the 21st century and a few were built in the 1960s. The per-unit prices range from $320,000 to $100,000. Most of the projected cap rates on the buildings are in the 5% range and are based on scheduled income and a 3% vacancy factor. Much of the interest so far has been local buyers each looking to purchase one or two properties, according to local sources.

The sales will be watched closely by the market because only one other comparable property has sold in San Francisco this year, according to Real Capital Analytics. The property was Empire, a 40-unit, four-story property built in 1907 at 1040 Leavenworth Street. The property sold for $5.8 million or $145,000 per unit; the pro forma cap rate was 4.7%. All of the Lembi properties are said to be of higher quality.

According to MPF Research, San Francisco rents dropped 5.2% in the first quarter of 2009.

∙ Lembi Group Puts 12 Apartment Assets up for Sale [CityFeet]
∙ Lembis Look To Cut Another Twelve Loose As Rental Market Drops [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (65) | (email story)

June 5, 2009

If You're Looking To Renovate Or Rewire In San Francisco...

"Unemployment in San Francisco’s building trades sector is over 20 percent, with about 50 percent of unionized electricians out of work, according to San Francisco Building and Construction Trades Council President Mike Theriault.

With 16,000 members, that means that more than 3,200 building trades workers are currently without a job. Unemployment among laborers and carpenters is running at more than 20 percent, while iron workers have the lowest jobless rate -- about 10 percent."

Unemployment is over 20% for S.F. building sector [San Francisco Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

June 4, 2009

A Six Month High For Mortgage Rates (But Still Historically Cheap)

"Fixed U.S. mortgage rates jumped to the highest level this year, signaling the Federal Reserve’s plan to lower borrowing costs has stalled. The average 30-year rate rose to 5.29 from 4.91 percent a week earlier...The last time the rate was higher was Dec. 11, when it was 5.47 percent. The average 15-year rate rose to 4.79 percent from 4.53 percent."

∙ U.S. Mortgage Rates Jump to Highest Since December [Bloomberg]
∙ It's Like The Fed (And Taxpayers) Just Bought You A Couple Of Points [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

June 2, 2009

Pending U.S. Home Sales Up 3.2% YOY (Down 2.9% In The West)

The National Association of Realtors' Pending U.S. Home Sales Index rose rose 6.7 percent from March to April and is up 3.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. The bulk of the YOY gains have, however, occured in the Midwest with the West down 2.9 percent.

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast shot up 32.6 percent to 78.9 in April and is 0.8 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 9.8 percent to 90.4 and is 11.1 percent above April 2008. The index in the South slipped 0.2 percent to 93.0 in April but is 3.5 percent higher than a year ago. In the West the index rose 1.8 percent to 94.8 but is 2.9 percent below April 2008.

∙ Pending Home Sales Up for Three Months in a Row [NAR]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

June 1, 2009

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/01/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco decreased a nominal 0.6% over the past three weeks (versus an average decrease of 1.2% for the same three week period over the previous three years) and is now running 10.4% higher on a year-over-year basis (down 6.3% for single-family homes and up 22.4% for condos/TICs) and 44.5% higher than at the same point in 2006.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 5/11/09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (102) | (email story)

May 29, 2009

Lembis Look To Cut Another Twelve Loose As Rental Market Drops

"The troubled Lembi real estate empire has put 12 San Francisco apartment buildings up for sale at prices well below what it paid for the properties in 2006 and 2007."

"The buildings the family is attempting to sell include 2185 Bay St., a 24-unit complex the Lembis bought in late 2007 for $7.9 million. The asking price on the building is $5.9 million. Another building, 1305 Lombard St. sold for $2.6 million in 2007 and is priced at $1.9 million. A third property, the 14-unit 2050 Powell St., sold for $3.4 million in 2006 and is priced at $2.9 million."

"David Gruber, who owns 13 multifamily buildings in San Francisco, said rents have dropped 10 percent to 15 percent, and he is seeing an increase in requests for rent adjustments."

∙ Lembis expect to sell apartment buildings for loss [Business Times]
∙ San Francisco Rental Market Weakness: SocketSite Readers Report [SocketSite]
∙ RealFacts Reports (Not So Real) Asking Rents Flat In San Francisco [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (23) | (email story)

May 26, 2009

March S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Slide Slows But Continues Fall

According to the March 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 2.2% from February ’09 to March '09, down 30.1% year-over-year and down 46.1% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 2.1% from February to March and are down 33.1% from a peak in June 2006 (down 18.6% year-over-year).

On a positive note, nine of MSAs are reporting a relative improvement in year-over-year returns and nine of the 20 metro areas saw an improvement in their monthly returns compared to February. Furthermore, this is the second month since October 2007 where the 10- and 20-City Composites did not post a record annual decline. Based on the March data, however, we see no evidence that that a recovery in home prices has begun.

San Francisco MSA single-family home prices continued to fall across all three price tiers.

The bottom third (under $268,429 at the time of acquisition) fell 4.6% from February to March (down 37.3% YOY); the middle third fell 2.5% from February to March (down 20.8% YOY); and the top third (over $481,916 at the time of acquisition) fell 3.5% from February to March (down 22.2% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to April 2000 levels having fallen 61% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has fallen below March 2002 levels having fallen 42% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has fallen to April 2003 levels having fallen 30% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 6.0% from February ’09 to March '09 (over three times the average of New York, Boston, Chicago and Los Angeles), down 27.3% on a year-over-year basis and down 32.7% from an October 2005 high.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ The Pace of the Decline in Residential Real Estate Prices Slowed in February [S&P]
∙ February S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues Slide [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (81) | (email story)

May 22, 2009

San Francisco County Unemployment Dips To 8.8 Percent In April '09

Preliminary April labor force data counts for San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties puts the unemployment rate at 8.8%, 7.2% and 8.1% respectively, down 0.2 percentage points from March across the board.

The 9.0% unemploment rate for San Francisco in March represented a 25 year high.

UPDATE: A plugged-in reader adds:

There is an interesting detail on the SF numbers. The number of unemployed in SF fell by 1000 from 40,800 to 39,800. But the number of employed fell by 1300 from 414,200 to 412,900. And the number in the "labor force" fell by 2800, from 455,000 to 452,800.

Looks like a few thousand workers packed up and left SF last month. Re the housing market, easing unemployment would certainly be good, but a smaller workforce would not.

∙ Monthly Labor Force Data for Counties: April 2009 (Preliminary) [EDD]
∙ San Francisco County Unemployment Hits 9.0 Percent In March [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

May 21, 2009

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In April: Down 33.6% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 33.6% on a year-over-year basis last month (402 recorded sales in April ’09 versus 605 sales in April ‘08) but rose 21.1% compared to the prior month (which seasonality would foretell).

San Francisco continued to experience the sharpest year-over-year decline in sales volume of any Bay Area county in April with San Mateo (-22.5%) and Marin (-19.4%) the only other counties recording declines. San Francisco's median sales price in April was $628,500, down 16.2% compared to April ’08 ($750,000) but up 3.4% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in April was up 13.1% on a year-over-year basis (a sharp decline from the 32.6% average YOY gain of the past seven months) and up 12.9% from the month prior (7,139 recorded sales in April '09 versus 6,310 in April ’08 and 6,325 in March '09), while the recorded median sales price fell 41.3% on a year-over-year basis, up 4.8% compared to the month prior (the first uptick in 17 months).

Last month’s sales were the second-lowest for an April since 1995 and were 23.2 percent below the average April sales total back to 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin.

Foreclosure resales – homes sold in April that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 47.4 percent of Bay Area resales. That was down from 50.2 percent in March and 52.0 percent in February. Last month’s figure was the lowest since foreclosure resales were 46.8 percent of existing home sales last November.

A lower concentration of discounted foreclosure resales in the statistics is one reason the median sale price has recently begun to more or less flatten, or at least erode more slowly, in many markets.

At the extreme, Solano recorded a 67.1% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 288 transactions) on a 43.7% drop in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area home sales rise again; median price up slightly over March [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In March: Down 34.6% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite Sees Seasonality (Versus Signs Of A Rebound) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (45) | (email story)

May 19, 2009

Call It Yet Another "Anecdote" (Or Data Point), It’s Down From 2004

As we wrote in February:

Purchased for $2,000,000 in June of 2004, 2203 Broderick in the heart of Pacific Heights returned to the market with a remodeled bath in October of 2008 asking $2,395,000. Reduced to $2,195,000 in November, and now asking $1,975,000 as of nine days ago.

A sale at asking would represent zero appreciation over the past four and one-half years. But do avoid the temptation to see that as "prices in Pacific Heights have been holding steady since 2004" versus having risen and are now falling since.

Temptation avoided as the single-family 2203 Broderick (with expansion potential) closed escrow on 5/12/2009 with a reported contract price of $1,750,000. That's 12.5% under its sale price in 2004 (which was well below "peak" and didn’t include the remodeled bath).

∙ Apples To Apples (If You Ignore The New Bath): 2203 Broderick [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (107) | (email story)

May 18, 2009

While Others Sit The Mayor’s Mini-Manse In The Sky Moves

While the Bay Area high-end market is struggling, at least one high-end and rather high-profile sale is not: the Mayor’s $2,995,000 one-bedroom Bellaire Tower penthouse is now "firmly" in escrow (as in any contingencies have been removed).

∙ Fit For A King San Francisco Mayor (Or Getty): 1101 Green #2001 [SocketSite]
∙ More high-end properties sitting on the market [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (27) | (email story)

May 15, 2009

QuickLinks: Signs Of Bay Area Economic Life (And Discounts)

∙ Bay Area economy shows signs of life [Business Times]
∙ Spike in San Francisco condo sales may signal comeback [Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (35) | (email story)

The World Market Is Flat!

Earlier this week a sale pair for a Noe Valley condo was submitted by a reader for consideration as an "apple." And while the pair passed our basic test (no major changes to the property between sales), its latest sale on 12/17/08 fell down on another (recency).

Then again, perhaps we’re wrong to believe the market has changed much since the fourth quarter of 2008. (Keep in mind that a mid-December close would suggest a contract that was written in either October or November.)

We have to admit it’s tempting to look at the sales history for 1169 Sanchez, see a sale on 4/11/06 for $775,000 and then again on 12/17/08 for $775,000 and declare the market flat. But that wouldn't be a very accurate depiction of what's actually going on.

And while not perfect, adding a median price per square foot trend line for condo sales in 94114 to the chart of contract prices for 1169 Sanchez should help make the point(s).

Perhaps that market isn’t so "flat" after all (and has actually been trending down since 2007). And looking to a December 2008 apple to understand the May 2009 market might not make too much sense.

Posted by socketadmin at 5:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (31) | (email story)

As Go Condo Values So Goes The Land Upon Which They're Built

"BayRock Residential has slashed the price of its approved condo site on Sutter Street from $18 million six months ago to $8 million, an indication that central San Francisco land prices are catching up with the decline in housing prices the city has seen."

∙ Value of entitled land plunges dramatically in S.F. [San Francisco Business Times]
∙ 1285 Sutter Street: The Proposed Design To Replace The Galaxy [SocketSite]
∙ 1285 Sutter: Fully Entitled, Retail Pre-Leased, And...On The Market [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

May 11, 2009

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 5/11/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 2.5% over the past two weeks (versus an average gain of 4.7% for the same two week period over the previous three years) and is now running 12.1% higher on a year-over-year basis (down 2.9% for single-family homes and up 22.9% for condos/TICs) and 45.5% higher than at the same point in 2006.

The typical spring-time bounce in sales activity known as basic seasonality, but which some seemed to have confused with a market rebound, appears to be moderating. And on a year-over-year basis sales activity in San Francisco remains down.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 4/27/09 [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite Sees Seasonality (Versus Signs Of A Rebound) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (51) | (email story)

May 6, 2009

A Plugged-In Reader's "Feel Good" Rental Story (And Shout Out)

A plugged-in reader reports:

A feel good story (for me, not my new landlord).

From reading a large majority of the posts and comments [on SocketSite] and just from walking around Cow Hollow/Marina it was pretty obvious there was a lot of rental supply. My wife and I had outgrown our place and needed either a 2BR or a 1BR w a dining room - we needed 3 rooms plus a kitchen. We figured there would be a lot out there and we would have our choice of solid places. We saw some good places but the one we liked the most was a bit more than we wanted to spend.

Then LMRiM posted something about how asking rents were just that - "asking."

The place we liked had been empty for 2 months. They were asking X. I called up and offered X minus 12%. They told me I wasn't in the ballpark but they would keep me in mind. The place languished, then I saw it on a broker site, so I figured there was room. Then they lowered the rent to X minus 6%. I called em up, put in an app and [we move in soon].

The only thing we'll add, "asking" isn't just for rents.

UPDATE: Another plugged-in reader adds:

Also got a great deal on a house - Noe, single family home w/ great yard for ~3600. The ad that we responded to asked $4000 - funny thing is broker also listed the same place for $5000!!...Apparently bought at 950k, tried to sell at [$1.25M] no takers for some reason.

We'll let you do the math.

Posted by socketadmin at 2:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (29) | (email story)

JustQuotes: Except In San Francisco Of Course...

"There was this unrealistic view that the crazy financing was limited to subprime when of course it was across the board," said Andrew Laperriere, Washington-based managing director at research firm International Strategy & Investment Group. "A lot of jumbo mortgages were nothing down with high debt-to-income ratios."

∙ Rich Americans Default on Luxury Homes Like Subprime Victims [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (34) | (email story)

May 4, 2009

Pending U.S. Home Sales Inch Up, Closed San Francisco Sales Fall

Pending U.S. home sales increased 3.2 percent from February to March (which shouldn’t have caught anybody by surprise) but also increased 1.1 percent higher on a year-over-year basis (3.9 percent and 1.7 percent respectively in the West). Think foreclosures.

At the same time, a plugged-in reader's early count of closed April sales suggests a year-over-year drop in activity of around 40 percent for listed properties in San Francisco.

∙ Pending Home Sales Rise, Housing Affordability Near Record [Realtor.org]
∙ SocketSite Sees Seasonality (Versus Signs Of A Rebound) [SocketSite]
∙ 465 Hoffman: Architects Unveiling This Evening (And On The Market) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

April 28, 2009

SocketSite’s S&P/Case-Shiller Bonus: San Francisco’s Thin Red Line

It’s a SocketSite bonus chart based on February’s S&P/Case-Shiller data for the San Francisco MSA and a chance to focus the discussion on analysis and numbers.

Plotted above, the percentage difference in index value compared to February 2009 for the top third of San Francisco MSA single-family home sales (by price) and all condominiums. Below the thin red line and the index on that date is "underwater" compared to February 2009, over and it’s above.

Once again, according to the Index single-family home values for the top third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to November 2003 levels having fallen 28% from a peak in August 2007. And Condo values in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to January 2004 levels having fallen 28.4% from an October 2005 high.

A closing thought to consider: according to a 2008 California Association of Realtors survey of 500 first-time home buyers in California, the average buyer planed on holding onto their purchase for just 43.6 months prior to selling.

∙ February S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues Slide [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (86) | (email story)

February S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues Slide

According to the February 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 3.3% from January ’09 to February '09, down 31.0% year-over-year and down 44.9% from a peak in May 2006.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 2.1% from January to February and are down 31.6% from a peak in June 2006 (down 18.8% year-over-year).

Looking at the data from peak-thru-February 2009, Dallas has suffered the least, down 11.1% from its peak in June 2007; while Phoenix is down 50.8% from its peak in June of 2006. The rates of decline from the respective peak of each market are evidence of how much each market has given back from the gains earned in the past 10-15 years. All of the 20 metro areas are in double digit declines from their peaks, with ten of the MSA’s posting declines of greater than 30% and seven of those -- Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, San Francisco and San Diego -- in excess of 40%.

San Francisco MSA single-family home prices continued to fall across all three price tiers.

The bottom third (under $281,438 at the time of acquisition) fell 3.7% from January to February (down 37.7% YOY); the middle third fell 2.9% from January to February (down 22.4% YOY); and the top third (over $501,978 at the time of acquisition) fell 4.1% from January to February (down 19.4% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to below June 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has fallen below April 2002 levels having fallen 40% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has fallen to November 2003 levels having fallen 28% from a peak in August 2007.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.1% from January ’09 to February '09, down 23.3% on a year-over-year basis and down 28.4% from an October 2005 high.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ The Pace of the Decline in Residential Real Estate Prices Slowed in February [S&P]
∙ January S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Decline Accelerates [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (88) | (email story)

April 27, 2009

Catching Up On A Few Closings And Early April Apples About Town

We hadn’t originally featured it as an apple but rather an interesting Noe Valley space and photography. But as a plugged-in reader points out, the sale of the contemporary 921 Elizabeth closed escrow on 4/7/09 with a recorded contract price of $1,155,000 or 14.4% under its previous sale price of $1,350,000 in June of 2006.

Other activity over the first few weeks of the month for previously featured apples: 835 Foerster up in Miraloma Park closed escrow with a recorded contract price of $750,000 (21.1% under its previous purchase price of $950,000 in July of 2006), and the bank owned 279 Flournoy closed escrow with a recorded contract price of $340,000 (22.7% under its last previous purchase price of $440,000 in October of 2003).

As we wrote last November when 835 Foerster was listed for $855,000 and the listing noted "Lender-approved short sale...After many months of negotiations, sale price has been set! Must be sold immediately! Property was marketed for $1,049,000 last year!":

[W]hile it’s good to know the seller and lender have come to terms (but perhaps not grips), we’re more interested in whether or not the market (i.e., a buyer) will agree.

Apparently the seller and lender were still off by 12.3%. That’s not too bad, however, when compared to the person who set the list price last year and missed by twice that (28.5%).

∙ A Contemporary Condo That Caught Our Eyes (You Supply The Story) [SocketSite]
∙ While Those Two Agree, It’s A Third That Really Matters [SocketSite]
∙ Bank Owned For The Past Year But Now On The Market: 279 Flournoy [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (30) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 4/27/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased a nominal 0.6% over the past two weeks (versus an average gain of 7.5% for the same two week period over the previous three years) and is now running 12.8% higher on a year-over-year basis (flat for single-family homes and up 21.7% for condos/TICs) and 54.2% higher than at the same point in 2006.

Twenty-three percent fewer listings on a year-over-year basis over the past two weeks is partially to blame for the dip, but we continue to see a slight uptick in potential sales activity albeit much less so than over the first two weeks of the month and without any signs of values stabilizing versus continuing to drop.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 4/13/09 [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (48) | (email story)

April 24, 2009

U.S. New Home Sales Down 31% YOY (West Shows Seasonality)

Purchases of new homes in the U.S. last month fell 0.6 percent to an annual pace of 356,000, down 31 percent from March 2008 and down almost 75 percent from a record pace of 1,389,000 in July 2005. In a show of relative strength (and seasonality), sales in the west increased 15 percent on a month over month basis.

With respect to existing home sales:

A report from the National Association of Realtors yesterday showed purchases of existing homes in March fell 3 percent to an annual rate of 4.57 million. The median price slumped 12 percent from a year earlier, and distressed properties accounted for about 50 percent of all sales.

Mounting foreclosures have drawn more buyers to the existing-home market. New-home sales now make up about 7 percent of the total market, down from about 16 percent at the peak of the housing bubble in mid-2005.

UPDATE: In response to a reader’s comment with respect to new home activity in San Francisco, we offer the following proxy (and perspective). The delta between listed and recorded sales in March 2008: 190. The delta between listed and recorded sales in March 2009: 94. And the year over year change: a 50 percent drop.

∙ Sales of U.S. New Homes in March Exceeded Forecast [Bloomberg]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In March: Down 34.6% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

April 23, 2009

RealFacts Reports (Not So Real) Asking Rents Flat In San Francisco

Based on a RealFacts survey of "professionally managed apartment complexes with 50 or more units," The Chronicle reports that average rents in San Francisco are off by a nominal 0.1 percent on a year-over-year basis and 95.8 percent occupancy (down 1.9 percent).

Unfortunately, and not too ironically, the RealFacts survey reflects the not so real market of asking rather than effective rents (after incentives). And keep in mind that over 700 units of new rental inventory has recently (or will soon) come on line in San Francisco and will need to be absorbed.

That new supply includes 192 units at Strata which offered a plugged-in reader a year of free parking and one month free rent, an effective discount of over 8 percent on a one year lease which wouldn't be reflected in the RealFacts survery of asking rents.

UPDATE: Speaking of incentives and why asking rent trends for large buildings aren’t a great measure of how the rental market is actually moving: "I just got an email from Argenta offering 2 mo free, up from 1 mo. Very nice people, BTW."

∙ Bay Area rents down for second straight quarter [SFGate]
∙ T-Minus Four Weeks For 260 New Mission Bay Apartments (355 King) [SocketSite]
∙ The Scoop On Strata At Mission Bay, Its Environs And Rents [SocketSite]
∙ The Rather Ironic "Argenta Silver Lining": Now Leasing At One Polk [ScoketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (28) | (email story)

April 22, 2009

Actual Q1 San Francisco Foreclosures Fall But Notices Of Default Spike

Bay Area Notices of Default (NODs) in the first quarter of 2009 rose 17.6% on a year-over-year basis, up 35.5% in San Francisco proper (from 420 to 569). NOD activity in San Francisco jumped 88.5% from the fourth quarter (302) as a Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac foreclosure moratorium in the fourth quarter expired on January 31, 2009.

Actual Bay Area foreclosures in the first quarter fell 9.0% on a year-over-year basis (from 6,646 to 6,050) with Contra Costa (down 22.0% to 1,738), Alameda (down 8.0% to 1,681) and Santa Clara (up 24.9% to 1,157) leading the way with respect to volume.

First quarter recorded foreclosures in San Francisco totaled 101, down 18.5% on a year-over-year basis and down 9.8% (11 homes) from the fourth quarter 2008. Once again, however, keep in mind that foreclosure moratorium by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

∙ Golden State Mortgage Defaults Jump to Record High [DataQuick]
∙ Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Down 42% QOQ (Up 70% YOY) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (163) | (email story)

April 17, 2009

No Rebound For You! (In Fact A Below Average Seasonality Bump)

In early March CBS5 reported signs of a "serious real estate rebound" in San Francisco. While we debunked it as basic seasonality, the report was quickly packaged and passed along as gospel by industry folks. And now we have the actual March results.

In 2009 recorded sales volume in San Francisco increased 22% from February to March (45% from January). On average over the past four years, however, recorded real estate sales volume has jumped 44% from February to March (65% from January).

In other words, not only do we see a 34.6% decline in year-over-year sales volume and no rebound, but we also see a below average seasonality bump.

∙ SocketSite Sees Seasonality (Versus Signs Of A Rebound) [SocketSite]
∙ CBS Calls It A "Real Estate Rebound In San Francisco" [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In March: Down 34.6% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (37) | (email story)

April 16, 2009

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In March: Down 34.6% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 34.6% on a year-over-year basis last month (332 recorded sales in March ’09 versus 508 sales in March ‘08) but rose 22.1% compared to the prior month (think seasonality rather than "rebound").

San Francisco experienced the sharpest year-over-year decline in sales volume of any Bay Area county last month with San Mateo the only other county recording a decline (down 13.2% YOY). And San Francisco's median sales price in March was $608,000, down 19.5% compared to March ’08 ($755,000) and down 5.0% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in March was up 29.1% on a year-over-year basis and up 25.7% from the month prior (6,325 recorded sales in March '09 versus 4,898 in March ’08 and 5,032 in February '09), while the recorded median sales price fell 45.9% on a year-over-year basis, down 1.7% compared to the month prior.

Once again, think foreclosures and mix.

Last month 51.2 percent of all Bay Area resale homes had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, down from 52.0 percent in February and up from 23.2 percent a year ago. By county it ranged from 11.5 percent in San Francisco to 70.0 in Solano.

And financing.

Mortgages for more than $417,000 were used to finance 19.0 percent of the Bay Area's home sales last month, compared with more than 60 percent before the credit crunch hit in late summer 2007.

The use of government-insured FHA loans - a common choice among first-time buyers - represented a record 25.4 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans in March, up from 1.5 percent a year ago.

At the extremes, Solano recorded a 102.8% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 366 transactions) on a 45.5% decrease in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 68.4% increase in sales volume (a gain of 666 transactions) on a 47.7% drop in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales (versus listed sales) which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area home sales continue climb, median still below $300K [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In February: Down 36.9% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite Sees Seasonality (Versus Signs Of A Rebound) [SocketSite]
∙ CBS Calls It A "Real Estate Rebound In San Francisco" [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (56) | (email story)

Global Layoffs Leveling Off But Is It The Eye Of The Economic Storm?

A plugged-in reader’s comment with respect to the global economy that’s worth elevating:

Just heard a snippet of interesting data from law firm that helps companies with layoffs:

Q408: 1.0M layoffs helped with globally
Q109: 1.5M layoffs
Q209: on pace for 100k so far...

Maybe companies are beginning to figure out what normal looks like moving forward.

Either that or we're in the eye of the global economic storm. And in layoff news closer to home, it appears as though Yahoo will cut up to another 600.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 4/13/09 [SocketSite]
∙ Yahoo plans to eliminate up to 600 jobs [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

Growing Commercial Concern (And Residential Parallels)

"Of particular concern for San Francisco is the fact that nearly 75 percent of the Class A - premier - office buildings downtown traded hands in the past four years, according to Tove Nilsen, director of market research at Colliers International. The flurry of activity propelled sales prices to record highs and drove the ratio of rental income to cost to all-time lows.

That might have been acceptable when rents were climbing. But the tumbling economy has emptied 1.1 million square feet of space since the beginning of last year and has pushed rents down by 24 percent, according to Colliers. Meanwhile, leases for about 6 million square feet will come up for renewal this year, as will those for more than 10 million square feet in 2010."

∙ Commercial real estate market softens [SFGate]
∙ Pro Forma Problems: Find Commercial, Replace With Residential? [SocketSite]
∙ Co-opting A Reader’s Comment: Our Commercial Market Decline [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

April 13, 2009

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 4/13/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 4.7% over the past two weeks (versus an average gain of 1.9% for the same two week period over the previous three years) and is now running 17.5% higher on a year-over-year basis (up 8.7% for single-family homes and 23.5% for condos/TICs) and 71.3% higher than at the same point in 2006.

Sixteen percent fewer listings on a year-over-year basis for the first two weeks of April are partially to blame for the dip, but an increase in sales activity in the sub-million dollar market over the past two weeks has reduced Active inventory as well. And this time it’s not simply seasonality as our counts suggest as much as a twenty percent year-over-year bump in potential contracts written in early April.

It is, however, way too soon to call it a turn or even simply a trend.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 3/30/09 [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite Sees Seasonality (Versus Signs Of A Rebound) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (66) | (email story)

April 8, 2009

Co-opting A Reader’s Comment: Our Commercial Market Decline

As a plugged-in reader commented and we’ve now co-opted, San Francisco’s commercial real estate market continues its decline. A few stats from Bloomberg:

San Francisco office rents dropped 24 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the biggest decline since the dot-com crash in 2001.

The office vacancy rate rose to 13.2 percent from 12.6 percent in the previous quarter and up from 10.2 percent a year earlier.

Almost half of the largest companies in the San Francisco Bay Area plan to cut staff in the next six months.

Not good. Unless, of course, you’re a renter looking to expand or renegotiate a lease.

∙ San Francisco Office Rents Fall Most Since 2001 [Bloomberg]
∙ Doesn't Everybody Want To Work Here? (Class A Rents Plunge) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

Effective San Francisco MSA Residential Rents Lead U.S. Decline

Effective residential rents in large apartment buildings in the San Francisco MSA declined 2.8% in the first quarter of 2009, the sharpest recorded decline amongst the top 79 U.S. markets. New York recorded a 2.6% decline to take second place and San Jose a 2.5% drop to take third.

According to San Francisco Apartments Association Executive Director Janan New by way of the Examiner, "rents have dropped most in the Marina, Russian Hill and Telegraph Hill neighborhoods, and least in Mission and Inner Sunset."

As outlined in our 2009 residential real estate outlook in January, we expect to see rents in San Francisco continue to drop throughout 2009.

∙ Landlords See a Jump in Vacancy Rates Even as Rents Drop [WSJ]
∙ Bay Area rents fall more than any U.S. region [Examiner]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (60) | (email story)

April 7, 2009

1470 Noe Closes For 100% Of Asking (But $25,000 Less Than In 2005)

It’s true, we missed it when the apples to apples sale of 1470 Noe recently closed escrow (hey, it happens). But luckily a reader calls us out (and we’d expect nothing less). Purchased for $1,865,000 in January of 2007 (asking $1,949,000 at the time), closed escrow on 3/27/09 with a reported contract price of $1,850,000 (asking at the time).

Considering the current market a two year "push" might not seem so bad for this single-family Noe Valley home. But do keep in mind it’s also an effective four year push in terms of appreciation as Mr. Alou paid $1,875,000 for the house in March of 2005.

∙ 1470 Noe Steps Back Up To The Plate (And A Plugged-In Peek Inside) [SocketSite]
∙ Another On Noe (1470 Noe Street) [SocketSite]
∙ Two Well Designed Data Points We Wouldn't Dismiss Out Of Hand [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (52) | (email story)

April 6, 2009

Mortgage Rates Are Down But Are The "Bad Ways" Picking Back Up?

From a plugged-in reader refinancing a home up in Portland:

We just signed on our refinance (4.625% for 1 point) and we were talking to a woman who worked at the title company and she said things are going right back to the old (bad) ways. People taking mortgages that over extend them financially, brokers pushing through anything they can. She said it is going straight back to how things were before and she wasn't happy about it.

Is it an "only in Oregon" or anomalous report?

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

From Flippy To Floppy For Watermark (501 Beale) Penthouse #2B

Two months after its initial sale for $1,250,000 in October of 2006 Watermark (501 Beale) Penthouse #2B was flipped for $1,375,000. (Ah, the good old days.) It's now a little over two years later and the top floor condo is back on the market and asking $1,094,500.

The listing notes both short sale and bank owned (we believe it’s the former) and the condo failed to sell earlier this year when seeking $1,195,000. Keep in mind that the identical "penthouse" unit a floor below (#PH1B) sold for $1,300,000 in October of 2006 and was likley a supporting comp for the flip of #PH2B. And so on. And so forth.

∙ Listing: 501 Beale Street #PH2B (2/2) - $1,094,500 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (81) | (email story)

April 3, 2009

U.S. Prime Delinquency Rate Doubles, Alt-A Approaches 10%

The delinquency rate for prime mortgages over 60 days behind more than doubled from the first quarter of 2008 (1.1%) to the fourth (2.4%) while serious delinquencies for Alt-A mortgages jumped from 5.18% to 9.1%. For context, the serious delinquency rate for subprime mortgages was 10.75% in the first quarter of 2008 (16.4% in the fourth).

The delinquency rate for prime mortgages in the U.S. has hit an all-time high, yet mortgage rates remain near all-time lows.

∙ Failure Rate Rises on Mortgages Revised in Late 2008, U.S. Says [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (94) | (email story)

April 2, 2009

Apples To Apples With Views, Views, Views! (714 Duncan)

Purchased for $1,413,000 in January of 2008, the four-bedroom 714 Duncan is back on the market in Noe Valley and asking $1,295,000. A transfer forces the sale.

There’s little doubt the quick turn will result in a loss as even with "typical San Francisco appreciation" transaction costs wouldn’t be covered. But that doesn’t mean this data point will be flawed. In fact, this sale will provide some rather clean commentary on changing neighborhood values over just the past year. And that’s why we like, and offer, our apples.

∙ Listing: 714 Duncan (4/2) 2,050 sqft - $1,295,000 [MLS]
∙ Expectation Setting: San Francisco Appreciation [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (53) | (email story)

April 1, 2009

A Plugged-In Perspective On The Local Economics Of Medicine

A plugged-in reader’s perspective on the local economics of medicine:

I wanted to comment on the economic decline and which groups are affected. Some sources talk about the medical field being unaffected, but this just isn't true. I'm finishing my specialty training in 2 months, and I can tell you that all of the specialty fellows, GI, Cardiology, Nephrology, Pulmonary, etc. are having trouble finding jobs.

The graduating residents are running into the same thing. The larger employers, like the University of California system and Kaiser, have implemented hiring freezes in a lot of their departments. This applies to support staff as well (nurses, resp therapists, etc), not just MD's. The smaller private groups seem to be doing the same, just not announced "official" freezes. A lot of the older docs are also not retiring to make up for all the money they've lost recently in their 401k's. This increased physician "supply" is also dampening the overall salaries as well.

The relevancy to local real estate? Earnings, wealth and perception. Okay, and a chance to get our Case-Shiller discussion back on track.

∙ January S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Decline Accelerates [SocketSite]
∙ JustQuotes: FIFO Not LIFO For The San Francisco Economy? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (124) | (email story)

Talking About TIC Activity Or The Lack Thereof: 3175 California Closes

A plugged-in reader reports on the sale of 3175 California, a two (plus) bedroom, two bath and 1,140 square foot TIC on the border between upper and Lower Pacific Heights:

3175 California Street (Pac Heights, near the JCC) closed today. It has been on the market since the first week of September [when listed for $739,000]. It opened at 699,000 in December with a new agent, and then was reduced to 649,000 in February. Closed [yesterday] for 610,000.

Top floor with leased parking in the building, closed for $535 per square foot.

∙ RandomRumors Via Trulia Voices: Fractional TIC Financing Drying Up? [SocketSite]
∙ 3175 California [Zillow]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

March 31, 2009

January S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Decline Accelerates

According to the January 2009 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 4.4% from December ’08 to January '09 and fell 32.4% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 19.4% (having fallen 2.5% from December).

The three worst performing cities, in terms of annual declines, continue to be from the Sunbelt, each reporting negative returns in excess of 30%. Phoenix was down 35.0%, Las Vegas declined 32.5% and San Francisco fell 32.4%. Dallas, Denver and Cleveland faired the best in terms of annual declines down 4.9%, 5.1% and 5.2%, respectively.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA accelerated their decline falling 5.4% from December ’08 to January '09, down 19.8% on a year-over-year basis and down 27.2% from an October 2005 high.

San Francisco MSA single-family home prices fell across all three price tiers.

The bottom third (under $297,909 at the time of acquisition) fell 4.7% from December to January (down 39.2% YOY); the middle third fell 2.9% from December to January (down 24.8% YOY); and the top third (over $527,385 at the time of acquisition) fell 4.2% from December to January (down 17.9% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to August 2000 levels having fallen 58% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has returned to May 2002 levels having fallen 39% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has fallen to February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ The New Year Didn’t Change the Downward Spiral of Residential Real Estate [S&P]
∙ December S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Ends '08 Down 31% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (169) | (email story)

March 30, 2009

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 3/30/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 3.3% over the past two weeks (versus an average of 4.7% for the same two week period over the previous three years) and is now running 26.8% higher on a year-over-year basis (up 18.2% for single-family homes and 32.7% for condos/TICs) and 72.6% higher than at the same point in 2006.

Twelve percent (12.1%) of listed inventory in San Francisco is known to either be bank owned (REO) or seeking a short sale including One Rincon Hill (425 1st Street) #2307, 1870 Jackson #701 in Pacific Heights, and 2510 Jackson (which we profiled last year when asking $14,900,000).

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 3/16/09 [SocketSite]
∙ Listing: 425 1st Street #2307 (1/1) - $649,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 1870 Jackson #701 (2/2) - $975,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 2510 Jackson (7/6.5) - $13,495,000 [MLS]
∙ Fortunes Can Be Fleeting (And Mansions Can Be Foreclosed Upon) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (29) | (email story)

What Happens When The Bay Area Median Drops 59%?

"Underlying all the market changes is the prevalence of bank-owned foreclosures being unloaded at a discount. Two years ago, only 2.6 percent of all existing [Bay Area] homes that changed hands had been foreclosed on in the prior months. This year, more than half of the existing homes that sold in January and February were foreclosures."

∙ Bargain home prices attract investors, novices [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

QuickLinks: January Outlook(s) Versus April Rental Reality

∙ Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Rental Outlook (And Quick Rebuttal) [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]
∙ Renters rejoice: Prices falling citywide [San Francisco Examiner]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

March 27, 2009

RandomRumors Via Trulia Voices: Fractional TIC Financing Drying Up?

We try not to reward bad behavior and the hijacking of a post, but it’s an off-topic comment worth repeating and a question worth clearing up (if you can):

From Real Estate pro Sally Rosenman on the Trulia forums : Sterling Bank is providing fractional loans and they are about it at the moment. Can anyone confirm or refute that fractional TIC loans are drying up? Is Bank of Marin or Circle Bank lending?

UPDATE: A few TIC numbers and trends to ponder as well.

Posted by socketadmin at 3:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (21) | (email story)

March 25, 2009

Coming Soon And An Überprime Data Point To Be: 2306 Broadway

Coming soon and asking $6,495,000 according to Nina Hatvany, it’s a plugged-in tipster that suggests we keep an eye on 2306 Broadway which is currently being prepped for sale.

And while we don’t see a recorded sales price for its purchse in August of 2000, we do see a tax assessed value of $7,648,507 which would suggest a purchase price of roughly $7,000,000 for this big view prime Pacific Heights home eight years ago.

Do keep in mind, however, that the sale of 2306 Broadway won't yield a perfectly clean "apple" as the kitchen has been updated and the master bathroom remodeled since. But it might offer some interesting insight into what’s happening with property values high atop San Francisco as opposed to a throw-away observation like it's still expensive.

Posted by socketadmin at 11:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (67) | (email story)

When Up Is Down: Bay Area Building Permits And U.S. Sales

Bay Area building permit activity rose 111 percent from January to February with 80 percent of the gain attributable to a single 143-unit mixed-use Berkeley project. At the same time, Bay Area permit area activity is down 47 percent on a year-over-year basis.

The pace of U.S. new-home sales also “unexpectedly” increased 4.7 percent from January to February (up 6.6 percent in the West), but fell 41 percent on a year-over-year basis.

In related news, we continue to see seasonality.

∙ Home building permits rise - concerns linger [SFGate]
∙ New-Home Sales in U.S. Rose 4.7% to a 337,000 Pace [Bloomberg]
∙ SocketSite Sees Seasonality (Versus Signs Of A Rebound) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

March 23, 2009

Three Cheers Quotes For Bank Of America’s New Jumbo Loan Program

"Bank of America, the country's largest mortgage lender, is rolling out a large program to finance loans between about $730,000 and $1.5 million, with fixed 30-year rates starting in the upper 5% range. The loans will be available through the bank's retail network and through its Countrywide Home Loans subsidiary."

"Bank of America quotes a minimum [down payment] of 20%....[and the new program] requires hefty liquid resources -- six months of principal, interest, property tax and insurance payments in reserve -- plus fully documented income, solid credit scores and a full appraisal."

UPDATE: A "tipster" beats us to the editorial punch (at least with respect to impact):

Countrywide/B of A has had that product since October of last year. Rates were in the 6% range.

I suspect that the debt to income hurdles are pretty high to get that rate (you'll note they don't mention it...), because it hasn't seemed to change the market that much in the 5 months they've had it.

As we’ve seen with other programs, we expect the Bank of America program to benefit qualified buyers though lower rates but not to have a significant impact on activity or demand.

∙ New supply of 'jumbo' financing in pipeline [LA Times]
∙ Conforming Loan Limits: A Placeholder For Discussion And Analysis [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (39) | (email story)

March 20, 2009

685 Units Looking Beyond The Current San Francisco Downturn

"On Rincon Hill, the Emerald Fund is proposing to build 308 units at 333 Harrison St., a project that would include two neighborhood parks. At 430 Main St. and 429 Beale St., a narrow lot sandwiched between the Baycrest condos and a Caltrans yard, Portland-Pacific is proposing to build 113 apartments. The Martin Building Co., meanwhile, is scrambling to put together financing to go forward on two apartment complexes: 179 units at 2235 Third St. and 85 units at 178 Townsend St."

∙ Developers emerge for new San Francisco housing [San Francisco Business Times]
∙ A Plugged-In Reader's 13 Notes On The "PC" Approved 333 Harrison [SocketSite]
∙ 430 Main and 429 Beale Streets - Tell Them To Forget It! [Rincon Hill San Francisco]
∙ 2225-2255 Third Street: What Was (And Hopefully Is) In The Works [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

March 19, 2009

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In February: Down 36.9% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 36.9% on a year-over-year basis last month (272 recorded sales in February ’09 versus 431 sales in February ‘08) but rose 18.8% compared to the month prior (think seasonality).

San Francisco once again experienced the sharpest year-over-year decline in sales volume of any Bay Area county last month with Marin the only other county recording a decline (down 18.4% YOY). San Francisco's median sales price in February was $640,000, down 13.0% compared to February ’08 ($736,000) but up 13.9% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in February was up 26.1% on a year-over-year basis but fell a nominal 0.4% from the month prior (5,032 recorded sales in February '09 versus 3,989 in February ’08 and 5,050 in January '09), while the recorded median sales price fell 46.2% on a year-over-year basis, down 1.7% compared to the month prior.

Once again, think foreclosures and mix.

Last month 52 percent of all homes that resold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, up from a revised 51.9 percent in January and 22.3 percent a year ago.

At the county level, foreclosure resales last month ranged from 12.1 percent of resales in San Francisco to 69.5 percent in Solano County. In the other seven counties, foreclosure resales were as follows: Alameda, 46.2 percent; Contra Costa, 65.1 percent; Marin, 18.9 percent; Napa, 63.1 percent; Santa Clara, 42.9 percent; San Mateo, 31.3 percent; and Sonoma, 57.1 percent.

And financing:

The use of government-insured, FHA loans – a common choice among first-time buyers – represented a record 24.9 percent of all Bay Area purchase loans last month.

Conversely, use of so-called jumbo loans to finance high-end property remained at abnormally low levels. Before the credit crunch hit in August 2007, jumbo loans, then defined as over $417,000, represented 62 percent of Bay Area purchase loans, compared with just 17.5 percent last month.

At the extremes, Solano recorded a 100.4% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 279 transactions) on a 44.3% decrease in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 70.4% increase in sales volume (a gain of 530 transactions) on a 51.9% drop in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales (versus listed sales) which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

Editor’s Note: We’ve adjusted the y-axis for Median Sales Price on the graph above which now crosses the x-axis at zero (as sales volume always has in months past).

∙ Bay Area home sales climb above last year as median falls below $300K [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In January: Down 21.8% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite Sees Seasonality (Versus Signs Of A Rebound) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (46) | (email story)

QuickLinks: The Fed Covers The B-52’s (Legal Tender)

∙ ‘Rambo Fed’ Will Buy Treasuries to Combat Crisis [Bloomberg]
∙ Mortgage Rates May Fall to Lowest Since WWII on Fed Purchases [Bloomberg]
∙ Dollar Rally Crumbles as Fed Ramps Up Printing Press [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (31) | (email story)

March 16, 2009

The SocketSite Reality Check For CBS’s Infamous "42 Offer" Home

While we’ve already debunked the CBS report that a recent uptick in home sales activity is a sign of a "serious real estate rebound" in San Francisco (we’ll call it seasonality and note that San Francisco sales activity continues to fall on a year-over-year basis), we now turn our attention to their infamous "42 offer" home.

Presented by CBS and their cast of "real estate experts" as another "hard fact" to back their report of a rebounding San Francisco real estate market (also touted as a "mini-boom"), we dug up some of our own facts on the Excelsior home. The address is 555 Edinburgh and it was listed for sale at $459,000.

At a reported 1,250 square feet (plus a full basement “with room to expand”) that’s a list price of $367 per square foot. At the same time, according to PropertyShark the median price per square foot for 2009 home sales in 555 Edinburgh’s zip code (94112) currently weighs in at $426. In 2008 the median sales price per square foot was $490, in 2007 it was $542, and in 2006 it was $580.

In other words, 555 Edinburgh was listed at 14% under the 2009 median, 25% below the 2008 median, 32% below the 2007 median, and 37% below the 2006 median. In fact, it was priced right around the 2002 median ($372 per square foot). Even a sale at $100,000 over asking suggests a closing price around the 2004 median ($450 per square foot).

Were the 42 offers on 555 Edinburgh a sign of a "serious real estate rebound" in San Francisco? Once again we’ll say no, it was commentary on pricing. And it's frightening that any industry expert would suggest otherwise.

∙ Listing: 555 Edinburgh (2/1) 1,250 sqft - $459,000 (pending) [MLS]
∙ SocketSite Sees Seasonality (Versus Signs Of A Rebound) [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 3/16/09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (80) | (email story)

A Plugged-In Reader’s Phantom Inventory Analysis For San Francisco

A plugged-in reader provides some great "phantom inventory" analysis for San Francisco:

I took a look over the weekend at MLS records that went to Expired or Withdrawn status since 2007. To get a unique count by address, I didn't count multiple instances for the same address and then eliminated listings that sold or went Active (or Contingent or Pending) subsequent to the expired or withdrawal date. So the following counts show the number of expired or withdrawn listings since 2007 that have not subsequently been sold and are not currently active (or contingent or pending):

SFH: 1,327
Condo: 2,657
Total: 3,984

Compare these (or add them) to the Active count [shown below]:

SFH: 602 active
Condo: 1,046 active
Total: 1,648 active

This analysis indicates that for every current active listing there are more than two other properties that have been withdrawn from the market (and have not returned) in the past 2 years by discouraged sellers.

Of course listings have always been withdrawn for many reasons - but the total number since 2007 has been about 50% higher than the 2000 - 2006 period.

I agree…that there is a huge "phantom inventory" from discouraged [or] discretionary sellers in addition to those who haven't yet put their properties on the market. Pent-up supply must surely exceed pent-up demand - at least from qualified potential buyers. The 3,984 properties from my analysis would take 20 months to be absorbed at the current sales pace.

Keep in mind that neither our listed count nor our reader's "phantom" count includes unlisted developer inventory.

And at the risk of bringing up our Complete Inventory Index (we know, we know), add another 1500 to 2000 housing units of already constructed but as of yet unsold San Francisco inventory that also needs to be absorbed.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 3/16/09 [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (Cii): Q1 2008 (San Francisco) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (86) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 3/16/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 8.7% over the past two weeks (versus an average of 4.3% for the same two week period over the previous three years) and is now running 24% higher on a year-over-year basis (up 8.8% for single-family homes and 34.8% for condos/TICs) and 80% higher than at the same point in 2006.

On the demand side, sales volume over the past two weeks in San Francisco appears to have been off by at least 20% on year-over-year basis despite a much ballyhooed and incorrectly interpreted seasonal uptick in activity.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 3/02/09 [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite Sees Seasonality (Versus Signs Of A Rebound) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

March 12, 2009

SocketSite Sees Seasonality (Versus Signs Of A Rebound)

We’ve put some DataQuick sales data behind the recent CBS5 "rebound" report to make a simple point. Despite significant discounting in the new development market, the recent "spike" in San Francisco sales activity is being driven by seasonality.

Any industry expert that claims a March spike in sales volume as evidence of a real estate rebound either doesn’t understand the basics of the market or isn’t being entirely forthcoming. We’ll let you decide which is worse.

Well, either that or the San Francisco real estate market "rebounded" in March of 2005. Then again in March of 2006. And again in March of 2007. And again…

∙ CBS Calls It A "Real Estate Rebound In San Francisco" [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (65) | (email story)

CBS Calls It A "Real Estate Rebound In San Francisco"

Remember when we promised to point out the bullish signs for the San Francisco real estate market based on good buy side analysis? Well, this isn’t it.

Multiple offers on properties listed below current market? Amazing! Sales up on significant price cuts and seasonality? Shocking! A rebound from the bottom? We'll say no.

UPDATE: And in related news: SocketSite Sees Seasonality (Versus Signs Of A Rebound).

∙ Signs Of Real Estate Rebound In San Francisco [cbs5]
∙ Infinity Sales Update: New Contracts Up But Driven By Discounts [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In January: Down 21.8% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (108) | (email story)

March 9, 2009

The Good News: Contractors Are Actually Calling Their Clients Back...

"About 25 percent of the San Francisco region's approximately 16,000 building trades workers are out of work, compared with nearly full employment last year, said Michael Theriault, secretary and treasurer of the San Francisco Building and Construction Trades Council." (S.F. construction slows to a crawl)

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (21) | (email story)

March 6, 2009

U.S. Unemployment Joins San Francisco County In The 8% Club

While the preliminary unemployment rate in San Francisco County hit the 8.0% mark in January, in February it hit 8.1% nationally. From Bloomberg:

The U.S. unemployment rate jumped in February to 8.1 percent, the highest level in more than a quarter century, a surge likely to send more Americans into bankruptcy and force further cutbacks in consumer spending.

Employers eliminated 651,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Losses have now exceeded 600,000 for three straight months, the first time that’s happened since the data began in 1939.

Do not underestimate the impact of unemployment on real estate, the brunt of which we believe has yet to be seen.

∙ U.S. Economy: Unemployment in U.S. Surged to 8.1% in February [Bloomberg]
∙ Unemployment In The San Francisco MSA Ticks Up To 7.5% [Socketsite]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

March 5, 2009

Local Housing Developer AF Evans Files For Bankruptcy Protection

In what's likely not to be good news for the development of 55 Laguna (at the very least with regard to timing), Oakland based developer AF Evans has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection citing "plummeting house prices and the credit crunch."

∙ AF Evans Co. files Chapter 11 [San Francisco Business Times]
∙ 55 Laguna: The Plugged-In (And AF Evans) Development Update [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

Unemployment In The San Francisco MSA Ticks Up To 7.5%

From the Chronicle:

California officials say unemployment rates in the Bay Area jumped in January, reaching 9.4 percent in the San Jose area, 9.2 percent in the East Bay and 7.5 percent in San Francisco and vicinity.

The San Francisco metropolitan area, which includes Marin and San Mateo counties, experienced the mildest rise from December's 6.2 percent, and still has one of the lowest rates in the state.

And in related national news: Mortgage Delinquencies Rise to Record on Job Losses.

UPDATE: County level detail from a plugged-in reader:

Note that SF's unemployment rate is 8.0% (up from 6.5% in December) according to today's release. Marin and San Mateo counties' rates are lower, bring the MSA rate down. So we're "less bad" than the rest of the state, but that is a huge one-month leap.

∙ Bay Area unemployment jumps higher [SFGate]
∙ Mortgage Delinquencies Rise to Record on Job Losses [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

Cognitive Listing Dissonance At The Watermark (501 Beale #14D)

Originally listed as a Watermark resale for $1,585,000 last July, from a listing later last year: “Views Galore 501 Beale #14D Offered at $1,499,000 Extraordinary price reduction!”

From a listing after that: “Buyers and Agents, now is the time to take advantage of this price!” Asking $1,399,000 at the time.

From the listing today: “Great Opportunity!! Take advantage of HUGE PRICE REDUCTIONs and 1 yr. HOA concession. Motivated sellers!!” Now asking $1,365,000.

And from public records: purchased for $1,303,500 in September of 2006 (not including any incentives). Cognitive listing dissonance (TM) is the first thing that comes to mind.

∙ Listing: 501 Beale #14D (2/2) - $1,365,000 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (42) | (email story)

March 4, 2009

Beige Book Results: Economic Conditions Continue To Deteriorate

From the latest Federal Reserve regional business survey (a.k.a. The Beige Book):

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic conditions deteriorated further during the reporting period of January through late February. Ten of the twelve reports indicated weaker conditions or declines in economic activity; the exceptions were Philadelphia and Chicago, which reported that their regional economies "remained weak." The deterioration was broad based, with only a few sectors such as basic food production and pharmaceuticals appearing to be exceptions. Looking ahead, contacts from various Districts rate the prospects for near-term improvement in economic conditions as poor, with a significant pickup not expected before late 2009 or early 2010.

As we wrote in April of 2008 when the Twelfth District ("San Francisco") was showing weakness: what does economic activity have to do with real estate? We'll just pretend you didn't ask that question (if for some strange reason you did).

∙ Federal Reserve Bank: Beige Book Summary (March 4, 2009) [federalreserve.gov]
∙ Beige Book Results For The Twelfth District (San Francisco): Flat [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

March 3, 2009

U.S. Pending Home Resales Drop 7.7% In January, December Revised

The National Association of Realtors reports a 7.7% January drop in U.S. pending home resales and has revised their originally reported 6.3% gain in December down to 4.8%.

"There are just too many headwinds for homebuyers -- tight credit, mounting job losses and fears of further price declines," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. "The housing market is showing no sign of a bottom. This could be the story for the first half of this year."

Sounds familiar. That being said, pending sales increased 2.4% in January for the West but driven by the sale of bank owned homes.

∙ Pending U.S. Home Resales Slump More Than Forecast [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

March 2, 2009

Early February Listed Sales Count For San Francisco: Down 35-40%

A plugged-in reader provides the early 2009 count and year-over-year six year history for February sales of single-family homes, condos and TICs in San Francisco.

Expect the final count for 2009 to increase by 15-25 units as records are updated (yielding total listed sales of between 189-199 units), but accounting for even an additional 25 closings it appears that sales volume in San Francisco has dropped at least 36% on a year-over-year basis (versus an 18% drop from 2007 to 2008), and that we'll close out this past February with sales volume down almost 50% from five years before.

At the same time, inventory of listed and available single-family homes, condos and TICs is up 24% on a year-over-year basis (versus a 42% increase from 2007 to 2008) and up 66% over the past three.

As we noted last month, January typically marks the seasonal low point for sales activity and sales counts should climb over the next five months at a faster pace than inventory.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 3/02/09 [SocketSite]
∙ Early January Listed Sales Results For San Francisco: Down 34% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

Buffet Calls Shenanigans Shambles (And The Dow Dips Below 7,000)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen below 7,000 for the first time since 1997 and Warren Buffet has eloquently predicted our economy will remain in "shambles" throughout 2009 (and "probably well beyond"). Now about our outlook...

∙ Buffett Says Economy ‘In Shambles,’ Promises Best Days Ahead [Bloomberg]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (37) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 3/02/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose a nominal 1.1% over the past two weeks (versus an average of 6.6% for the same two weeks over the previous three years) and is now running 24.4% higher on a year-over-year basis (up 11.8% for single-family homes and 33.2% for condos/TICs) and 66% higher at the end of February 2006.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 2/17/09 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (42) | (email story)

February 27, 2009

Downward Revisions: They're Not Just For NAR These Days

"[U.S. GDP] contracted at a 6.2 percent annual pace from October through December, more than economists anticipated and the most since 1982, according to revised figures from the Commerce Department today in Washington. Consumer spending, which comprises about 70 percent of the economy, declined at the fastest pace in almost three decades."

∙ U.S. Economy Shrank 6.2% Last Quarter, Most Since ’82 [Bloomberg]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

February 24, 2009

December S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Ends '08 Down 31%

According to the December 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 3.8% from November ’08 to December '08 and fell 31.2% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 19.2% (having fallen 2.3% from November).

The seven worst performing cities in terms of year-over-year declines continue to be from the Sunbelt, reporting negative returns in excess of 20%. Phoenix was down 34.0%, Las Vegas reported -33.0% and San Francisco fell 31.2%. Denver, Dallas, Cleveland and Boston faired the best in terms of annual declines down 4.0%, 4.3%, 6.1% and 7.0%, respectively.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA also continued their decline falling 1.3% from November ’08 to December '08, down 19.8% on a year-over-year basis and down 23.0% from an October 2005 high.

San Francisco MSA single-family home prices fell across all three price tiers.

The bottom third (under $321,066 at the time of acquisition) fell 3.8% from November to December (down 39.0% YOY); the middle third fell 2.5% from November to December (down 25.8% YOY); and the top third (over $561,810 at the time of acquisition) fell 3.4% from November to December (down 15.8% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to October 2000 levels, the middle third has returned to June 2002 levels, and the top third has fallen to April 2004 levels.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Price Declines Closed Out 2008 with Record Lows [S&P]
∙ November S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Down, Rate Levels [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (81) | (email story)

February 23, 2009

Checking In On Two Pacific Heights Apples: 2155 Buchanan Update

Apples-to-apples sales tell us the most about how the market is moving, but non-sales can provide some hints as well.

And while 2155 Buchanan Street #9 is in contract up in Pacific Heights (purchased for $1,000,000 in June 2006, listed for $950,000 in November 2008, last asking $885,000), the listing for the "reduced to sell!" and vacant 2155 Buchanan Street #7 has expired without a sale (purchased for $899,000 in July 2005, listed for $960,000 in August 2008, asking $850,000 at expiration).

Perhaps we’ll soon see a sign in the window for number seven and another unit of rental inventory to be absorbed. We’ll keep you posted on the contract price for number nine.

UPDATE: After 24 hours off the MLS as "expired," the listing for 2155 Buchanan #7 has been turned back on. No adjustment to the price (still asking $850,000) and now an official 186 days on the market (but we'll call it 185).

∙ A Pacific Heights Apple Up In The Tree: 2155 Buchanan #9 [SocketSite]
∙ Another Shot At A Ripening Pacific Heights Apple: 2155 Buchanan #9 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Rental Market Weakness: SocketSite Readers Report [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

Grand Opening Liquidation Sale: Signs Of The Times And SF Freeze?

A plugged-in tipster captures the seemingly oxymoronic "Grand Opening Liquidation Sale" sign adorning Bamboo Colony at the base of Potrero Hill. The tipster’s succinct subject line: “It's gonna be a deeeep freeze” [in San Francisco].

UPDATE: A plugged-in reader sets the record straight:

This is just a marketing gimmick. I live close by and I have gone to that store a few times (they carry some decent stuff) and asked about the sign and if they are closing shops. They aren't. They have been opened for a couple of months and they keep getting more furniture every time I go in. The sign has always been there.

As such we're scratching our "signs of the times" designation, but standing behind our tipster's first thought.

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (30) | (email story)

San Francisco Rental Market Weakness: SocketSite Readers Report

From a plugged-in reader with respect to San Francisco’s rental market:

I do consulting and building inspections for major lenders for commercial properties (apartment buildings over 6 units are considered commercial in SF), and last week I did on site inspections of 8 properties owned by a major SF rental player.

All of the building managers told me that they are not getting any responses at all to new units listed, versus the outlandish amount of emails and phone calls they would receive just a few months back for these same buildings.

These include studios for around $1500 and 1 bedrooms for $1800+, in areas as diverse as Mission, Hayes Valley, and Nob Hill.

The anecdotes are quickly starting to add up. And once again, we expect to see San Francisco rents fall throughout 2009 putting further downward pressure on local housing values as "(E)arnings" fall.

∙ A Rental Market Anecdote From A Plugged-In San Francisco Hipster [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]
∙ Bay Area Rents Surge, But Housing P/E Ratio Remains Out Of Line [SocketSite 1/08]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (69) | (email story)

February 20, 2009

A Rental Market Anecdote From A Plugged-In San Francisco Hipster

From a plugged-in hipster’s comment:

I have rentals in SF and though it's still pretty easy to fill a vacancy here, the prices are softening. I just re-rented a condo in the [Mission] for $2450 (was getting 2600 before).

Cue our rebuttal to the Marcus & Millichap rental outlook (and our overall outlook as well).

∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In January: Down 21.8% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Rental Outlook (And Quick Rebuttal) [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (116) | (email story)

February 19, 2009

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In January: Down 21.8% YOY

According to DataQuick, recorded home sales volume in San Francisco fell 21.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (229 recorded sales in January ’09 versus 293 sales in January ‘08) and fell 37.4% compared to the month prior. San Francisco once again experienced the sharpest year-over-year decline in sales volume of any Bay Area county last month with Marin the only other county recording a decline (down 7.5% YOY).

San Francisco's median sales price in January was $562,000, down 24.5% compared to January ’08 ($744,000) and down 8.8% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in January was up 40.8% on a year-over-year basis but fell 26.7% from the month prior (5,050 recorded sales in January '09 versus 3,586 in January ’08 and 6,889 in December '08), while the recorded median sales price fell 45.5% on a year-over-year basis, down 9.1% compared to the month prior.

Once again, think foreclosures and mix.

At the county level, foreclosure resales last month ranged from 16.4 percent of resales in San Francisco to 75.2 percent in Solano County. In the other seven counties, January foreclosure resales were as follows: Alameda, 51.9 percent; Contra Costa, 64.4 percent; Marin, 26.2 percent; Napa, 48.1 percent; Santa Clara, 45.6 percent; San Mateo, 34.1 percent; Sonoma, 55.6 percent.

At the extremes, Solano recorded a 126.7% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 313 transactions) on a 44.6% decrease in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 99.9% increase in sales volume (a gain of 666 transactions) on a 52.5% drop in median sales price.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales (versus listed sales) which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bay Area home sales top last year again; median drops to $300K [DQnews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In December: Down 17.8% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ Early January Listed Sales Results For San Francisco: Down 34% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (75) | (email story)

February 18, 2009

The Great Rate Update: What’s The Point Of A Point?

A rate update from Julian Hebron at RPM Mortgage:

Zero-points rates on conforming loans up to $417k and super-conforming loans up to $625,500 have improved to start this week as stocks have sold off and mortgage bonds have rallied—when bond prices rise in a rally, yields (or rates) drop. With the government participating in mortgage bond markets, lenders are pricing more conservatively than market levels might suggest because it’s harder than ever to predict which way markets will move. So we continue to see favorable terms on points: one point gets .625% to .875% lower in rate, so borrowers break even on a one-point buydown in 12-18 months.

And rough 30-year rates with said single point:

Conforming - 4.875% (5.09% APR)
Super-Conforming - 5.375% (5.52% APR)
Jumbo - 6.625 % (6.83% APR)

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

The Slightly Altered Sign Of 161-165 Collingwood (And The Times)

A plugged-in tipster with camera in tow captures the slightly altered sign for 161-165 Collingwood (and of the times). Let's keep the candids coming (tips at socketsite.com).

∙ Perhaps It’s Time For The Hard Stuff: 161-165 Collingwood Cuts Again [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (21) | (email story)

February 17, 2009

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 2/17/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 13% over the past two weeks (versus an average of 1.7% for the same two weeks over the previous three years) and is now running 29.5% higher on a year-over-year basis (up 14.3% for single-family homes and 40.5% for condos/TICs).

Overall listed inventory is up 83% versus February of 2006 while listed sales have continued to trend down (a 49% drop in January versus 2006). Keep in mind that "listed" (or MLS based) inventory counts do not include the vast majority of units in new developments about town and neither do "listed" sales.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 2/02/09 [SocketSite]
∙ Early January Listed Sales Results For San Francisco: Down 34% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (81) | (email story)

February 13, 2009

An "Exciting New Price" (And Club Initiation) For 3577 Pacific Avenue

Touting an “Exciting new price!” of $5,995,000, the newly renovated 3577 Pacific Ave has just joined our quickly growing high-end million dollar cut club.

That’s assuming you count the three days at which it was originally listed for $7,700,000 (now 22% lower). If not, it’s now only $955,000 (14%) under its last price of $6,950,000.

UPDATE: And from a plugged-in reader, the full floor plan monty (pdf).

∙ Listing: 3577 Pacific Avenue (6/4) - $5,995,000 [MLS]
∙ 4552 19th Street Joins The High-End Half Million Dollar Cut Club [SocketSite]
∙ 3577 Pacific: Inside Its Newly Contemporary Soul (And Market's Mind) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (25) | (email story)

February 12, 2009

Early January Listed Sales Results For San Francisco: Down 34%

Based on an early count of 142 sales of listed single-family homes, condos and TICs in January, sales volume in San Francisco has dropped 34% on a year-over-year basis (versus a 13% drop from 2007 to 2008), and is down around 60% from four years before.

At the same time, inventory of listed and available single-family homes, condos and TICs is up 20% on a year-over-year basis (versus a 32% increase from 2007 to 2008) and is up 58% over the past two.

In terms of months of listed supply on the market at the end of January, in 2007 the count was 3.4 while in 2009 it was 9.4. Keep in mind, however, that January typically marks the seasonal low point for sales activity and sales counts should climb over the next five months (and at a faster pace than inventory).

CORRECTION: As a plugged-in reader correctly notes, we originally miskeyed the current January 2009 sales count as 162 (corrected above and throughout as 142). We’re triple checking everything else.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 2/02/09 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In December: Down 17.8% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (83) | (email story)

4552 19th Street Joins The High-End Half Million Dollar Cut Club

With a $300,000 cut late yesterday, the recently renovated 4552 19th Street in District 5 joins the high-end million dollar (and over 30%) price cut club. Now asking $2,999,000 or $1,300,000 less than what was expected in October.

Also reduced late yesterday, 3271 Baker Street is now listed for $2,275,000. Hitting the market last July asking $3,395,000, expectations for the recently renovated (hmm...) Marina home have been lowered by $1,120,000 or 33% over the past seven months.

Keep in mind that MLS based industry reports on the state of the San Francisco real estate market now reflect 33 days on the market and a 12% drop from its "original" list price of $2,595,000 in January for 3271 Baker Street.

But hey, what’s six months, $800,000 and 20% between friends?

∙ Listing: 4552 19th Street (6/4.5) - $2,999,000 [MLS] [4552-19thst.com]
∙ Listing: 3271 Baker Street (4/2.5) - $2,275,000 [3271bakerstreet.com]
∙ 4552 19th Street Joins The High-End Half-Million Dollar Cut Club [SocketSite]
∙ Spanish/Mediterranean Flair From Traditional To Modern: 3271 Baker [SocketSite]
∙ Less Great Expectations: 3271 Baker Drops Its New Year Asking 24% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (43) | (email story)

February 11, 2009

Homeowners In The West "Now Nine Percent Less Delusional!"

While we don’t buy into Zillow’s analytics as accurate measures of any reality (or realty), we can’t argue with the results of their surveys on perception. A recap of their second-quarter 2008 survey of homeowners in the West:

My Home's Value Has Increased Over Past Year: 28%
My Home's Value Has Decreased Over Past Year: 56%
My Home's Value Has Stayed the Same Over Past Year: 16%

And from the fourth-quarter:

My Home's Value Has Increased Over Past Year: 19% (-9% from Q2)
My Home's Value Has Decreased Over Past Year: 70% (+14% from Q2)
My Home's Value Has Stayed the Same Over Past Year: 11% (-5% from Q2)

∙ Perhaps An Apple A Day Would Keep Their Delusions Away... [SocketSite]
∙ Zillow Homeowner Confidence Survey: Q4 2008 [Zillow]
∙ Luckily The Sellers Weren't Looking At Their "Zestimate" [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

February 9, 2009

JPMorgan Chase’s Jumbo Mortgage Performance And Default Forecast

Highlights of JPMorgan’s latest forecast for Jumbo mortgage performance and defaults:

Losses on so-called hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages backing 2006 and 2007 prime-jumbo securities will reach 8 percent to 10 percent…Losses on prime-jumbo mortgages with completely fixed rates in “recent vintage” bonds will be lower than losses on hybrid ARMs [as] faster prepayments could prevent many future defaults, keeping losses in the 2 percent range, a decrease from last month’s 2.3 percent to 2.8 percent...The share of Alt-A mortgages underlying bonds at least 60 days late, in foreclosure or already turned into seized properties climbed 1.53 percentage points last month to 22.88 percent [while] Defaults on so-called option ARMs rose 2.47 percentage points to 30.96 percent.

∙ JPMorgan Doubles Prime-Jumbo Mortgage Loss Projection [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

February 6, 2009

Office Space For Sublease And Unemployment Up In San Francisco

From J.K. Dineen at the San Francisco Business Times with respect to office space:

San Francisco tenants unloaded another 250,000 square feet of unwanted office space onto the market in January, as employers slashed workers and pushed to generate sorely needed cash by subleasing floors in Class A downtown towers.

Companies adding to the avalanche of available sublease space include Charles Schwab, which said Jan. 30 that it would cut 500 to 600 jobs in the first quarter. Schwab is seeking a subtenant for 80,000 square feet at the 1 Montgomery Tower. Also in that building, Thomas Weisel Partners Group is looking to sublease 20,000 square feet on the 35th floor, billed as a “high-end build out with panoramic views.” Other chunks of sublease space coming available include 15,639 square feet of brand-new space at the just completed 555 Mission St. being subleased for $48 a square foot by law firm DLA Piper, and the entire 22nd floor of 345 California St., former UBS space that Cushman & Wakefield is looking to lease for five years at a rock-bottom $27 a square foot.

And with respect to San Francisco unemployment:

The number of unemployed San Francisco residents grew by 10,300 in the fourth quarter of 2008 to 29,500, according to Ted Egan, chief economist for the City of San Francisco. In spite of the fourth-quarter increase, Egan pointed out that the 10,000 jobs eliminated during the final three months of 2008 came in dribs and drabs rather than the sort of en masse layoffs announced in recent days by Charles Schwab and Macy’s, which announced 1,400 San Francisco layoffs on Feb. 1. A loss of 2 million square feet of occupied space equals about 10,000 workers.

“Now we are starting to see major layoffs from major employers,” said Egan. “This is the sign of the recession coming to San Francisco.”

∙ Quarter-million square feet added to S.F. sublease glut [Business Times]
∙ Jones Lang LaSalle Office Outlook For San Francisco And The Valley [SocketSite]
∙ A Virtual Tour Of 555 Mission Street (And Downtown San Francisco) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

The Good News: Stock Futures Rise. The Bad News: The Reason Why.

The good news, U.S. stock futures rose last night. The bad news, the reason why:

U.S. stock-index futures advanced on speculation a government report showing the highest unemployment rate since 1992 will force Congress to pass an economic stimulus package.

∙ U.S. Stock Futures Rise on Optimism Jobs Data to Spur Stimulus [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. Jobless Rate Soars as Payrolls Plunge by 598,000 [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

February 5, 2009

JustQuotes: A Safe Place To Discuss And Debate Mortgage Rates

"The average U.S. rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose this week, thwarting Federal Reserve efforts to cut borrowing costs, on investor concern the government will increase spending. The fixed rate increased to 5.25 percent from 5.10 percent last week...The 15-year fixed rate jumped to 4.92 percent from 4.8 percent."

∙ Fixed Mortgage Rate Rises to 5.25%, Freddie Mac Says [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (28) | (email story)

Jones Lang LaSalle Office Outlook For San Francisco And The Valley

The Jones Lang LaSalle outlook for office space in San Francisco:

Downsizing companies paired with sluggish tenant demand will cause downward pressure on rental rates to gain momentum in 2009. Rising vacancy rates, barring an unexpectedly rapid recovery, market fundamentals in 2009 will be downward trending as negative net absorption is expected.

Maturing debt, constrained lending and depreciated asset values will place a number of San Francisco building owners in jeopardy of default, forcing recapitalization or distressed sale transactions. This should present attractive opportunities for buyers with significant pools of equity financing.

And for Silicon Valley:

Although the outlook for the Silicon Valley is grim, the general consensus is that the market is well positioned to weather this downturn. During the tech wreck, the Silicon Valley lost over 231,000 jobs or nearly 21 percent of its workforce. Preliminary estimates have the valley shedding up to 26,000 positions in 2009.

∙ North America Office Report – Q4 2008 (pdf) [joneslanglasalle.com]
∙ Pro Forma Problems: Find Commercial, Replace With Residential? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

February 3, 2009

QuickLinks Headline Triptych: And So It Goes In San Francisco

∙ U.S. Consumer Spending Falls for Sixth Straight Month [Bloomberg]
∙ Macy’s to lay off 1,400 at S.F. headquarters [Business Times]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (37) | (email story)

The Unfinished Façade Of 77 Van Ness (And Its 56 Residential Units)

While the façade isn’t quite finished the scaffolding is down from around 77 Van Ness. Once again, it’s 56 potential condos and 21,000 square feet of commercial/retail for lease, but considering the fate of Argenta and Artani perhaps 56 new rental units instead.

∙ 77 Van Ness Rising (And Our Request For A Rendering) [SocketSite]
∙ Argenta's Confirmed And Artani's Rumored, Will 77 Van Ness Be Next? [SocketSite]
∙ The Scoop: Argenta (1 Polk) On The Market As An Apartment Building [SocketSite]
∙ The SocketSite Scoop And Rumor Confirmed: Artani Suspending Sales [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

February 2, 2009

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 2/02/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 11.6% over the past two weeks and is running 19.8% higher on a year-over-year basis (up 8.3% for single-family homes and 28.5% for condos/TICs).

Overall inventory is up 65% versus 2006 while sales continue to trend down.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 1/21/09 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In December: Down 17.8% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (21) | (email story)

January 30, 2009

Eviction Moratorium Extended And Freddie Becomes A Landlord

"Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the mortgage-finance companies under federal control, are extending by one month a freeze on evictions for homeowners in foreclosure as delinquencies soar in a slumping economy.

Freddie, the second-largest source of U.S. home loan money, said it will now allow renters in homes the company has repossessed to remain using monthly leases at market rates. Homeowners who have lost their houses to foreclosure can also rent the properties back from the company at market rates, McLean, Virginia-based Freddie said today in a statement."

∙ Freddie, Fannie Extend Eviction Freeze Until March [Bloomberg]
∙ Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Down 42% QOQ (Up 70% YOY) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (23) | (email story)

January 29, 2009

JustQuotes: Damn Those Bad News Bloomberg “Bears”

“Prospects for an economic recovery this year dimmed after reports today showed new-home sales collapsed, durable-goods orders slumped and a record number of Americans collected unemployment benefits.” Huh.

∙ U.S. Economy: Sales of New Homes, Durable Goods Orders Tumble [Bloomberg]
∙ SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (26) | (email story)

January 28, 2009

JustQuotes: A First (And Second Zero) For The Fed, Not SocketSite

"The Federal Reserve left the benchmark interest rate as low as zero, said it’s prepared to purchase Treasury securities to resuscitate lending and warned inflation may recede too quickly."

“Deflation is an increased worry,” said William Ford, a former Atlanta Fed chief who’s now at Middle Tennessee State University in Murfreesboro. “They have switched from worrying about inflation to being focused on deflation. It is the first time they have talked about that in a straightforward way.”

∙ Fed Keeps Rate Near Zero, Prepared to Buy Treasuries [Bloomberg]
∙ Did Somebody Say Deflation? [SocketSite]
∙ Promoted From Comment To Post: Satchel Does Deflation [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (43) | (email story)

Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Down 42% QOQ (Up 70% YOY)

Bay Area Notices of Default (NODs) fell 12% on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter of 2008, down 9.6% in San Francisco proper (from 353 to 302). And while the number of new NODs in San Francisco also fell 25% from the third quarter, the lead time changing state law took effect in September is likely to still be skewing the comparisons.

At the same time, actual Bay Area foreclosures rose 68% year-over-year (from 4,573 to 7,677) with Contra Costa (up 48% to 2,310), Alameda (up 64% to 1,681) and Santa Clara (up 120% to 1,347) leading the way with respect to volume.

Fourth quarter recorded foreclosures in San Francisco totaled 112, up 70% on a year-over-year basis but down 42% (80 homes) from the third quarter 2008. Think aforementioned state law (reducing the number of pipeline foreclosures) and last month's foreclosure moratorium by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (which was extended through January 31).

Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between October 2005 and January 2007 [versus October 2005 to February 2007 last quarter]. The median age was 29 months, up from 21 months a year earlier.

We continue to move from those who were simply undercapitalized to begin with to those who had a bigger cushion in the bank.

∙ Temporary Drop in California Foreclosure Activity [DataQuick]
∙ Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Up 36% QOQ (191% YOY) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (54) | (email story)

January 27, 2009

SocketSite’s Residential Real Estate Outlook For 2009

We currently see across the board weakness in San Francisco’s residential real estate market throughout 2009 as economic woes compound the impact of tighter credit markets and a shift in market psychology.

Downturns in residential real estate have traditionally been triggered by a downturn in either the local or national economy. The reality which we’ve foreshadowed for quite some time is that the majority of the current market weakness in San Francisco, the Bay Area, and beyond has been driven by a contraction in the credit markets (the deflation of a credit bubble) and a recent shift in market psychology (the deflation of a speculative bubble). The real impact of a weakening economy is yet to come.

With an economy that generally lags the financial markets by nine to twelve months, the full brunt of October’s melt-down won’t be felt for at least another six months. And we expect to see continued weakness in both consumer and corporate spending over at least the next couple of quarters which will further depress corporate earnings and likely lead to additional layoffs and stoke the real real estate killer, unemployment.

With no discernable recovery in sight, we expect the financial market’s destruction of wealth both real (investments) and potential (options) to continue to drag down the San Francisco residential market throughout 2009, and to weigh particularly heavy on the luxury market.

Historically low interest rates will continue to benefit those who buy, but we don’t see rates alone significantly driving demand in San Francisco, or at least not offsetting the decrease in demand due to stricter lending standards and the loss in wealth. And the supply and absorption of new inventory will continue to put downward pressure on housing throughout the city, and not just District 9 as a limited number of active buyers are drawn from other parts of the city by unemotional (well, for the most part...) developer price cuts.

We believe the real estate flight to quality we called two years ago, and up until recently provided support to the upper end of the market, is waning. And value (versus growth) is the new darling of the ball. Oh, and that rents in San Francisco will fall (further challenging values on a fundamental basis).

Our outlook has nothing to do with emotion (other than with respect to acknowledging the psychological shift in the market). And it’s not to suggest that we don’t see any opportunities, especially when it comes to adding real value. It’s simply perspective to help manage expectations and actions (be it in buying, selling, renting or staying put).

And yes, while we are currently bearish on the market in the near-term, we’ll be the first to point out the real bullish signs. As defined by analysts, not sales agents or the industry.

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (91) | (email story)

November S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Down, Rate Levels

According to the November 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 3.0% from October ’08 to November '08 and are down 30.8% year-over-year (down 31% in October). For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 19.1% (having fallen 2.2% from October).

All 20 metro areas, and the two composites, posted their third consecutive monthly decline. In addition, eight of the MSAs posted their largest monthly decline on record – Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, New York, Portland and Seattle. Although in decline over the past few years, some of these regions have out-performed on a relative basis, when compared to the national average. It is clear, however, that the decline in home prices is affecting all regions regardless of geography or employment opportunities.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA also continued their decline falling 2.7% from October ’08 to November '08, down 19.2% on a year-over-year basis and down 22.0% from an October 2005 high.

And San Francisco MSA single-family home prices once again fell across all three price tiers.

The bottom third (under $342,467 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.2% from October to November (down 40.2% YOY); the middle third fell 1.6% from October to November (down 26.9% YOY); and the top third (over $591,729 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.9% from October to November (down 14.6% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to December 2000 levels, the middle third has returned to February 2003 levels, and the top third has fallen to June 2004 levels.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Price Declines Continue/Home Prices Indices Set New Record Annual Declines [S&P]
∙ October S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Down Across The Board [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (84) | (email story)

January 26, 2009

JustQuotes: Remember That "Positive" Sales Surprise? Surprise!

"Fannie Mae, the largest source of home-loan money in the U.S., said it will need to tap as much as $16 billion in emergency funds from the U.S. Treasury Department to stay afloat as deterioration in the housing market persists.

Fannie’s planned request, announced today, follows Freddie Mac, which said Jan. 23 that it will need as much as $35 billion more in federal aid. Unprecedented mortgage losses drove the net worth of both companies below zero last quarter, they said in separate securities filings."

∙ Fannie to Tap U.S. for as Much as $16 Billion in Aid [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise on Record Price Slump [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

January 23, 2009

An Apple In The "Heights" Of Our Tree: 3444 Washington Reduced

From a plugged-in Sleepiguy when the rather handsome 3444 Washington hit the market last May asking $17,500,000: “This property sold a couple of years ago for 16.5 million.”

From the MLS today: now asking $15,750,000 with an "official" one day on the market.

UPDATE: It appears as though sleepiguy (or his agent) might have been thrown by an asterisk. From a plugged-in FSBO:

MLS shows the 1/31/2006 sale price as $16.5M with an *. Current assessed value is $15.8M - so the actual sale price was probably about $15.2M or so...

Cheers. And something tells us we’ll see another one when this sells (asterisk that is).

∙ Listing: 3444 Washington Street (6/6.5) - $15,750,000 [MLS]
∙ It's Not Often A Listing Can Tout A Private Outdoor Amphitheater [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (28) | (email story)

January 22, 2009

It's Bigger Than Google But Not A Bad Starting Point (And Relevant)

The biotech discussion was too far along to parse it from the rest of the Palms discussion, but we will redirect a reader's no comment comment about Google:

No comments about Google today? Weird. It seems that for every company on the ropes there is at least one that is doing ok. How did they do it? Can they continue?

Also appears that a lot of companies in the valley, like Google, are taking steps to actually retain employees instead of shed them (option repricing). Although that usually resets the vesting period it can still do a lot for morale. Thoughts?

∙ A SoMa/Palms Wake Up Call (And Apple): 555 4th Street #401 [SocketSite]
∙ Google Profit Tops Estimates as Web-Ad Sales Rise [Bloomberg]
∙ The Google Chart Of The Day (And A Bit More Foreshadowing) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (52) | (email story)

A SoMa/Palms Wake Up Call (And Apple): 555 4th Street #401

From a reader’s comment on our topic of the Palms (555 4th Street) in July:

So now there are a fair number of 2/2's in Soma for the 600's. Wake me up when we hit the 500's.

Last week 555 4th Street #401 closed escrow with a reported contract price of $599,900 (that's "high $500’s" in sales speak). A 938 square foot two-bedroom/bath condo with parking at the Palms, unit #401 was purchased in October of 2006 for $779,000, returned to the market a year later seeking $850,000, and was asking $674,900 when it closed [see UPDATE below].

That's an apples to apples drop in value of 23% over the past two and one-quarter years, or average annual depreciation of 11%. Are we awake?

UPDATE: Additional color from a plugged-in reader:

FYI, this unit was indeed an REO. Did anyone see it? I did. The guy that was foreclosed on freaked out, ripped out all the kitchen appliances and sold them on craigslist. Nice Bosch appliances, pick 'em up cheap! At $599,900 the unit was actually a pretty good deal, however if the buyer had waited it out a bit I'm sure it would have come down some more. The price had actually been reduced to $599,900, so it sold at asking.

The line from the listing: "Need minor cosmetic works." (Misplaced "s" theirs not ours.)

∙ The Palms (555 4th St.): Secondary Market Slowdown And Short Sale [SocketSite]
∙ The Palms Finds More Inventory And A Resale Hits The Market [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (55) | (email story)

January 21, 2009

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In December: Down 17.8% YOY

According to DataQuick, home sales volume in San Francisco fell 17.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (366 recorded sales in December ’08 versus 445 sales in December ‘07) but rose 7.6% compared to the month prior. San Francisco once again recorded the sharpest year-over-year decline in sales volume of any Bay Area county last month with Marin a close second (down 14.5% YOY).

San Francisco's median sales price in December was $616,500, down 15.7% compared to December ’07 ($731,000) and down 4.9% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in December was up 36% on a year-over-year basis and rose 19.7% from the month prior (6,889 recorded sales in December '08 versus 5,065 in December ’07 and 5,756 in November '08), while the recorded median sales price fell 43.8% on a year-over-year basis, down 5.7% compared to the month prior.

Once again, think foreclosures and mix.

Homes that were foreclosed on accounted for 50.0 percent of December's resale activity, up from 46.8 percent in November, and up from 14.0 percent for December a year ago. Foreclosure resales ranged from 12.4 percent in San Francisco last month to 67.7 percent in Solano County.

At the extremes, Solano recorded a 103.6% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 373 transactions) on a 42.3% decrease in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 84.1% increase in sales volume (a gain of 817 transactions) on a 50% drop in median sales price.

And as always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

∙ Bargain hunting dominates Bay Area home sales in December [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In November: Down 29% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:04 AM | Permalink | Comments (108) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 1/21/09

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco rose 6.1% over the past three weeks and is running 12.9% higher on a year-over-year basis (53% higher versus 2006).

That being said, the plugged-in word on the street is that a significant number of uncounted pocket listings are being circulated (especially in District 7) as agents test the new new market's waters. And as one plugged-in agent notes, only those homes that have to sell are listed right now (something to keep in mind if you’re making an offer).

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 12/29/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (49) | (email story)

Marcus & Millichap San Francisco Rental Outlook (And Quick Rebuttal)

The Marcus & Millichap rental outlook for 2009 in San Francisco: rents up 3.3% on 400 new units in professionally managed apartment buildings with at least 20 units.

Our comment (at the risking of stealing a bit of our own outlook thunder): we believe Marcus & Millichap is significantly underestimating both the number and impact of "shadow” market units for rent in San Francisco (which they deem to be “barely a factor”) as well as the effective number of new units for rent that will hit the market in 2009.

∙ Bay Area rental market gives tenants an edge [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (39) | (email story)

January 20, 2009

JustQuotes: While Treasury Rates Drop, Risk Premiums Rose

"Thirty-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 4.96 percent last week, according to McLean, Virginia-based mortgage finance company Freddie Mac, or 2.64 percentage points more than 10-year Treasuries. Before the credit markets began to seize up in the second half of 2007, the difference averaged about 1.78 percentage points since the start of the decade."

∙ Treasury Yields Flattened as Fed Fights to Cut Mortgage Rates [Bloomberg]
∙ That TED Sure Is A Funny Fellow (And Worth Keeping An Eye On) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (51) | (email story)

January 16, 2009

Cash Flows Catch Up To The Lembi Group

Over the past two weeks 51 San Francisco apartment buildings which had been acquired by the Lembi Group were deeded back to the bank in lieu of foreclosure. The bundle of 1,500 apartments had been losing $3 million a month.

∙ Lembi gives 51 buildings back to UBS [Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (71) | (email story)

January 14, 2009

One Rincon Hill (425 First Street): Rental Market Stumbling As Well?

Following in the footsteps of its “massive price reduction!!!” in December (originally asking $1,399,000, currently asking $999,900), the asking rent for 425 1st Street #1802 has been reduced to $4,200 per month as well (once asking $5,250).

Don’t forget to update those assumptions on your valuation/rent versus buy worksheets.

∙ One Rincon Hill (425 First Street): Secondary Market Stumbles [SocketSite]
∙ Listing: 425 1st Street #1802 (2/2) - $999,900 [MLS]
∙ $4200 / 2br - PRIME VIEW AT ONE RINCON HILL - RENT REDUCED [Craigslist]
∙ Four Floors Lower, But Asking One Hundred And Fifty Thousand Less [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (104) | (email story)

January 13, 2009

That TED Sure Is A Funny Fellow (And Worth Keeping An Eye On)

"The difference between the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks say they charge each other for three-month loans in dollars and the yield on the three-month Treasury bill, fell 12 basis points to 98 basis points today. The so-called TED spread last closed below 100 basis points Aug. 15. Dollar Libor dropped to 1.09 percent today, the lowest level since June 2003."

"The three-month dollar Libor is still 84 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s target, compared with an average of 12 basis points in the year before the crisis began. The spread was 332 basis points on Oct. 10, less than a month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc."

∙ TED Spread Narrows to Least in Five Months as Credit Eases [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

January 12, 2009

Less Great Expectations: 3271 Baker Drops Its New Year Asking 24%

As we first wrote about 3271 Baker when it hit the market six months ago (and was staged a bit differently):

While the stucco, tiles, wrought iron railings, doorways, beamed ceilings and wooden trim of both the overhauled façade and second floor of 3271 Baker Street are all true to the traditional Spanish/Mediterranean ethos of the house, the new first floor master suite is a bit more Ibiza (and the kitchen Italian).

And for the record, we’re not complaining (about either the suite, the island or Italy).

Asking $3,395,000 ($1,125 per square foot) in 2008, asking $2,595,000 ($860 per square foot) today. And yes, "two days" on the market (at least according to those MLS reports).

∙ Listing: 3271 Baker Street (4/2.5) - $2,595,000 [3271bakerstreet.com] [MLS]
∙ Spanish/Mediterranean Flair From Traditional To Modern: 3271 Baker [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (118) | (email story)

Pro Forma Problems: Find Commercial, Replace With Residential?

From J.K. Dineen at the San Francisco Business Times:

Downtown San Francisco’s weakest year for commercial real estate since 2001 ended with a whimper, with the central business district losing another 1.3 million square feet of occupied space in the fourth quarter of 2008.

For the year, San Francisco’s “negative absorption” — the sum of both space vacated and empty new square footage coming on line — topped 2 million square feet, according to end of the year reports from CB Richard Ellis.

The deluge of newly available office space drove taking rents — the amount that tenants actually pay for space they agree to occupy — down by almost 25 percent, according to an analysis Colliers International did of 93 leases completed in the fourth quarter. The gap between what office landlords are asking and what tenants are willing to pay is widening, according to James Bennett of GVA Kidder Mathews.

“You have a lot of newcomers to the market who bought buildings at astronomical prices who are now having to stomach the fact that their pro forma rents are not going to materialize,” said Bennett. “It will be interesting to see how those owners respond to the down market.”

We're still talking commercial, right?

∙ S.F. tenants pour more space onto market [San Francisco Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

January 7, 2009

San Francisco’s “2008 Luxury Tour” Scorecard To Date: No Sales

From ABC's Nightline last night: "Herding the ‘White Elephants': A look at how hard unloading a mega-mansion has become in today’s economy." Shockers. At least to those who aren't plugged-in...

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (58) | (email story)

Bay Area Notices Of Default: Another Source, The Same Story

"Notices of defaults (the first step in the foreclosure process) and notices of trustee sales (which often but don't always lead to actual foreclosures) reached 525,356 in 15 California counties last year, reported [Default Research Inc]. In the Bay Area counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco and Solano, the annual total climbed 180 percent to 85,381."

∙ Report says foreclosures, defaults up in 2008 [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

January 6, 2009

But Hey, What's The Bay Area Economy Have To Do With Real Estate?

"For all of 2008, just six venture-backed companies made their public debut, the worst showing since 1977 when there were also just six VC-backed companies that went public. Preliminary figures show just 260 M&A transactions last year, the first year since 2003 that were less than 300 venture-backed acquisitions.

Venture capitalists unable to cash in on their investments spells big trouble for the entire venture community and the broader Bay Area economy. The venture business is an engine of growth in the Bay Area, which traditionally gets about a third of all venture dollars invested."

∙ Venture-backed IPOs last year hit 30-year low [San Francisco Business Times]
∙ Sequoia’s Take On The New New (And Quite Local) Economy [SocketSite]
∙ From Underwater To Unemployed (And Sorry, But It’s Just Starting) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (110) | (email story)

A Six And One-Half Year District 5 Single-Family Apple On The Tree

Sporting a bit of a sweet deco vibe in the living room, 444 Douglas is back on the market and asking $1,295,000. Purchased for $1,100,000 in August of 2002, a sale at asking would represent average annual appreciation of 2.6% over the past six and one-half bull market years for this solid single-family home in San Francisco's real estate District 5.

And while the sale for $1,100,000 in 2002 closed just 13 months after purchasing the property for $860,000 in 2001, do keeping mind that a bathroom was remodeled, rooms were renovated, and the foundation was bolted in between. But once again, we can't recall anybody discussing the measured appreciation over such short holding periods as being anything but representative of the market at the time (as it was and still is).

∙ Listing: 444 Douglass (3/2.5) - $1,295,000 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (70) | (email story)

JustQuotes: Can You Say Risk/Default Premium?

"Federal Reserve officials are focused on driving down the spreads between U.S. Treasury yields and consumer and corporate loans, after cutting the main interest rate to almost zero failed to revive lending.

Credit costs for households and businesses haven’t followed yields on government debt lower. Fifteen-year fixed-rate mortgages were at 5.06 percent last week, 2.59 percentage points above 10-year Treasury yields; the spread averaged 0.88 point in 2003, when the Fed slashed rates to 1 percent."

∙ Fed Focuses on Consumer, Corporate Rate Spreads Over Treasuries [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

January 5, 2009

Mortgage Rate And Driver(s) Update: January 5, 2009

A quick mortgage rate update from Julian Hebron at RPM mortgage:

Rates open the first full week of the year about the same as they were leading into the holidays. A good 30yr fixed rate target for loans up to $417k is 5% or below, and the target for loans up to $625k is around 5.25%. For loans up to $417k and $625k, we’re close to those targets. Rates for loans from $625k to $1m are mid-6% range.

The Fed announced just before New Year’s that they’ve hired outside money managers to run their $500 billion mortgage bond purchase program and that it will start in January. We’ll likely see another update on timing this week. When that purchasing starts, it will drive bond prices up and rates down. [Editor's Note: They've started.]

The biggest news this week is Friday’s jobs report for December, which calls for 475,00 lost jobs and unemployment going from 6.7% to 7%. And this doesn’t even include post-holiday retail worker layoffs that won’t be captured until next month. It would mark 12 straight months of job losses and about 2.5m jobs lost for 2008. This news can cause rates to drop as investors dump stocks and buy bonds.

UPDATE (1/6): "Longer-term Treasuries fell for a fourth day, pushing yields on 10-year notes to the highest in three weeks, as concern the U.S. will sell record amounts of debt drove investors from the safety of government securities."

∙ All Your Home Loans Are Belong To Us (To Boost Liquidity) [SocketSite]
∙ Treasuries Drop Amid Concern U.S. to Sell Record Amount of Debt [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

A Sign Of The Times And A Comp In 2005, So How About In 2009?

Purchased for $550,000 in June of 2004, this Outer Sunset single-family home was flipped eight and one-half months later for $680,000 (an increase of $130,000/23.6%) and established a new neighborhood comparable sale (“comp”) that we can’t recall being dismissed on account of the short holding period or location.

Bought back by the bank this past September for $535,075 this past September, 3004 Ortega is currently listed for $589,900.

∙ Listing: 3004 Ortega (2/1) - $589,900 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (40) | (email story)

December 30, 2008

October S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Down Across The Board

According to the October 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 4.2% from September ’08 to October '08 and are down 31.0% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 19.1% (having fallen 2.1% from September).

Three of the metro areas have given back, on average, more than 30% of the value of homes since October of last year. Phoenix remains the weakest market, reporting an annual decline of 32.7%, followed by Las Vegas, down 31.7%, and San Francisco down 31.0%. Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego were close behind with annual declines of 29.0%, 27.9% and 26.7%, respectively.

Condo values in the San Francisco MSA also continued their decline falling 3.1% from September ’08 to October '08, down 17.0% on a year-over-year basis and down 19.8% from an October 2005 high.

And San Francisco MSA single-family home prices once again fell across all three price tiers.

The bottom third (under $361,865 at the time of acquisition) fell 3.5% from September to October (down 42.1% YOY); the middle third fell 2.7% from September to October (down 27.6% YOY); and the top third (over $616,549 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.7% from September to October (down 15.7% YOY).

According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to January 2001 levels, the middle third has returned to April 2003 levels, and the top third has fallen to October 2004 levels.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ Home Price Declines Worsen As We Enter the Fourth Quarter of 2008 [S&P]
∙ September S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Decline Continues [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (254) | (email story)

December 29, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 12/29/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 20.2% over the past two weeks (about average for the end of the year) and is closing out 2008 29.3% higher versus last year (60.1% higher versus 2006).

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 12/15/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

Drinking Might Be On The Rise, But Martini Park San Francisco Is Not

A plugged-in (and observant) reader reports:

There has been a sign at Rincon Center for the past 4-6 months saying that a Martini Park bar will be opening in late Fall 2008. Of recent, there is a "for lease" sign in one of the windows (Spear Street side). There is also no reference to a San Francisco location on the company's website. There was several months ago.

Curious if it has died a quite death as a result of the slowing economy. That was the line they gave for closing the location in Texas.

That's probably a good guess, and they wouldn't be alone, but we can't confirm. Readers?

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

Flash Back Forward To Beacon Two-Bedrooms Asking Under $600,000

A tax assed value of just over $750,000; a recorded sale back to the bank three weeks ago for $629,142; and a two-bedroom/bath condo at the beacon that’s now asking $599,900 (and touting “Offers anytime!”). Yes, it's 250 King Street #266 and almost the end of 2008.

∙ Listing: 250 King #266 (2/2) - $599,900 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (39) | (email story)

December 24, 2008

JustQuotes: Jumbo Premiums For Jumbo Loans

"The average 30-year fixed jumbo loan rate was 7.32 percent on Dec. 22, compared with 5.38 percent for a conforming loan, according to BanxQuote of White Plains, New York.

The difference between them has averaged 2.13 percentage points in December, 10 times the average spread from 2000 to 2006 and above last month’s 1.95 percentage points that was the highest on record."

∙ Jumbo Mortgage Shoppers Get Little Relief From Fed Rate Cuts [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

December 23, 2008

JustQuotes: Forget The Hopes, It's Time For Prayer

"Sales of single-family houses in the U.S. dropped in November by the most in two decades and resale prices collapsed at a pace reminiscent of the Great Depression, dashing hopes that the market was close to a bottom."

∙ U.S. Economy: Housing Prices Collapse at Near-Depression Pace [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (69) | (email story)

December 22, 2008

Some "Older Folks" (His Words, Not Ours) Perspective On The Market

Some excerpted perspective from an older experienced plugged-in reader:

Us older folks (48 years myself) have seen this all before. I sold my second home in Santa Monica in 1990 which at that time had the same bubble energy of late 2006 here. I had 6 offers within 48 hours, almost all over listing price, which was 25% more than any other similar home sold for in my neighborhood that year.

Back then L.A. was going through a bubble that reminds me very much of what we see here. The buyer had to hold on until 2000 to be able to finally sell it for what he originally purchased the home for, not more. This was a nice area, north of Montana, with many media stars living nearby and listed architectural gems by noted architects such as Neutra, Wallace Neff, Gordon Kaufman, etc., including at that time the bizarre residence of Frank Gehry. This was the "real Santa Monica".

10 years is a LONG time to have to wait to get your money back...

That it is. Especially if one was sold on "normal" returns or is counting on building equity to fund the purchase of a move-up home.

∙ Perhaps It’s The Market That’s More Unbelievable To Some... [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

December 19, 2008

Perhaps It’s The Market That’s More Unbelievable To Some...

Purchased for $1,600,000 a year ago when they were asking $1,675,000, 214 Arguello Boulevard returned to the market nine months later (September 2008) asking $1,595,000. The list price was lowered to $1,495,000 six weeks later. And for the past three they've been asking $1,395,000.

A sale at the current asking for this four bedroom, two and one-half bath, completely renovated and District 7 (albeit on a busy block, as it was before) condo would represent depreciation of 12.8% over the past year.

From the listing: "This price is [absolutely] unbelievable…" Only if you're not plugged-in.

∙ Listing: 214 Arguello Boulevard (4/2.5) - $1,395,000 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (47) | (email story)

Doesn't Everybody Want To Work Here? (Class A Rents Plunge)

“A new Colliers International report found weighted average rents in the financial district dropped from $56.17 to $41.34 a square foot during the [fourth quarter], a 26.4 percent decline. Across the entire San Francisco market, Class A average rents dropped even more — 28.2 percent from $55.65 to $39.79 a square foot.”

∙ Downtown S.F. office rents plunge by 26% [Business Times]
∙ S.F. office space rent drops 22% [SFGate]
∙ San Francisco Firms Continue To Shed And Sublease Office Space [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

December 18, 2008

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In November: Down 29% YOY

According to DataQuick, home sales volume in San Francisco fell 29.0% on a year-over-year basis last month (340 recorded sales in November ’08 versus 479 sales in November ‘07) and fell 17.9% compared to the month prior. San Francisco recorded the sharpest year-over-year decline in sales volume of any Bay Area county last month.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

San Francisco's median sales price in November was $648,000, down 20.5% compared to November ’07 ($814,750) and down 7.3% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in November was up 12.3% on a year-over-year basis but fell 24.4% from the month prior (5,756 recorded sales in November '08 versus 5,127 in November ’07 and 7,613 in October '08), while the recorded median sales price fell 44.4% on a year-over-year basis, down 6.7% compared to the month prior. Once again, think foreclosures.

At the county level, foreclosure resales last month ranged from 10.0 percent of resales in San Francisco to 63.6 percent in Solano County. In the other seven counties, November foreclosure resales were as follows: Alameda, 44.4 percent; Contra Costa, 63.0 percent; Marin, 22.6 percent; Napa, 40.8 percent; Santa Clara, 38.9 percent; San Mateo, 21.8 percent; Sonoma, 51.6 percent.

At the extremes, Solano recorded a 90.4% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 283 transactions) on a 37.6% decrease in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 61.9% increase in sales volume (a gain of 544 transactions) on a 49.9% drop in median sales price.

∙ Bay Area median home price sinks to 8-year low; sales up over '07 [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In October: Down 21.3% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (140) | (email story)

December 17, 2008

1018-1020 Pine Street: Eight Contemporary Condos Apartments

As we wrote three months ago:

As far as we know, 1018-1020 Pine Street is slated to be eight units (condos) with seven (possibly eight) parking spaces. In terms of any other details, we don't know...But we will keep you plugged-in.

As a plugged-in tipster writes today: "I think I know what might be happening." Another luxury new development is skipping the sales office to go the rental route (currently asking $2800-$4250/mo, parking for $200). At least for now.

∙ 1018-1020 Pine Street: Eight Contemporary Condos Coming Soon [SocketSite]
∙ $3300 / 2br - Luxury condos! 8 Brand New units! MODERN [Craigslist]
∙ The SocketSite Scoop And Rumor Confirmed: Artani Suspending Sales [SocketSite]
∙ The Scoop: Argenta (1 Polk) On The Market As An Apartment Building [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (34) | (email story)

QuickLinks: Lower Rates Will Save San Francisco! Oh, Wait A Minute…

∙ The FOMC Speaks (And Not In Tongues): It Ain't Pretty Out There [SocketSite]
∙ U.S. Stocks Fall on Concern Fed Is Running Out of Ammunition [Bloomberg]
∙ Banks Show No Signs of Easing in Step With Fed’s Cuts [Bloomberg]
∙ Mortgage Rates Left in Dust by Treasuries, Failures [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

December 16, 2008

Back To The Future Past (And Then Some) For Marquee Building #403

Purchased for $551,000 in May of 2005, 151 Alice B. Toklas Place #403 returned to the market in August of 2008 asking $599,000, a sale at which would have represented average annual appreciation of roughly 2.5% over the past three years.

In September the price on the Marquee building one-bedroom was reduced to $525,000, in October to $475,000, and in November to $425,000 where it remains available today assuming a successful short sale.

We should also mention that the person who sold it for $551,000 in May of 2005 bought it for $415,000 in September of 2002. Perhaps it’s time to include that "not included in sale" chandelier.

∙ Listing: 151 Alice B. Toklas Place #403 (1/1) - $425,000 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (25) | (email story)

The FOMC Speaks (And Not In Tongues): It Ain't Pretty Out There

"The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent.

Since the Committee's last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined. Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight. Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures have diminished appreciably. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the Committee expects inflation to moderate further in coming quarters."

∙ Federal Open Market Committee Statement: December 16, 2008 [federalreserve.gov]
∙ The Fed Cuts Rates To One Percent To Avert "Prolonged" Recession [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (35) | (email story)

If You Want To Live Like An Architect, Do The Your Math (398 Eureka)

It was a plugged-in reader that first connected the dots with regard to the listing of Phil Matthews’ AIA home tour home at 398 Eureka. Asking $2,450,000 in September and then taken "off the market" two weeks ago, it’s another plugged-in reader that points out that the home has been added to the rental pool and is currently asking $6,500 per month.

We’ll let you do your math. And once again, connect the dots.

∙ Listing (for rent): 398 Eureka (3/3.5) - $6,500/mo [398eureka.com]
∙ AIA Tour (And Architect’s) Home Hitting The Market: 398 Eureka [SocketSite]
∙ To Rent Or To Buy, That Is The Question (That Only You Can Answer) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (46) | (email story)

December 15, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 12/15/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 14% over the past two weeks (versus an average of 16.1% over the same two weeks in 2006 and 2007) and is currently running 30.5% higher on a year-over-year basis (down 2.8% over the past two weeks) as few new homes are listed and many are withdrawn as we close out the year.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 12/01/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

Preaching To The Plugged-In Choir (We Can Only Hope)

The Chronicle and a couple of brokerages seem to have figured out what most plugged-in people have known and have been able to act on accordingly since well before the second half of 2008: real estate values in San Francisco are falling.

The quote from McGuire Real Estate CEO Charles Moore with which we have to agree, "I don't think we've even seen the beginning of this yet." More on that point tomorrow.

∙ S.F. feels the pain of real estate meltdown [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (202) | (email story)

December 10, 2008

Chelsea Park Christmas Special (But Lump Of Coal If It's Your Comp?)

It’s a “Christmas special!” at Chelsea Park as the list price for 3620 19th Street #26 has just been reduced to $799,000 (previously listed for $899,000).

Originally asking $949,000 for this 1,332 square foot three-bedroom, two-bath condo, the reduction might seem more like a lump coal, however, if considered to be your comp.

∙ Listing: 3620 19th Street #26 (3/2) - $799,000 [MLS]
∙ Changing Chelsea Park Expectations Versus Eleven Months Ago [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

December 9, 2008

The Economic (And Employment) State Of San Francisco: Not Good

From the Examiner with regard to the economic state of San Francisco:

The City is facing a fiscal “crisis,” with one of the largest deficits in San Francisco history expected in the next year, Mayor Gavin Newsom said Monday, adding that hundreds of layoffs could be announced as soon as Tuesday.

And with respect to employment (or lack thereof):

Unemployment in The City hit the 6 percent mark for the first time since June 2004, according to the [Controller’s Office October economic barometer report], which stated that “most indicators continue to show accelerating weakness in San Francisco’s economy.”

Stating the obvious as some like to say (but yet somehow seem to be missing), the economy, employment and real estate prices tend to be correlated. And it's not looking good.

∙ Mayor: City's budget situation 'legitimately a crisis' [San Francisco Examiner]
∙ From Underwater To Unemployed (And Sorry, But It’s Just Starting) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (119) | (email story)

Chinese To Raid San Francisco (And Lose Like In Germany?)

It reads more like a press release than a serious report, but a reader directs us to the "Chinese property hunters to raid US" piece in the Financial Times. The counterpoint:

“Unless these people need a house in the US to live in, this is senseless,” said Yi Xianrong, a real estate expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “A few years ago there was a lot of talk about investing in German real estate but most of the people who did so lost a lot of money.”

Ah, those mythical foreign saviors.

∙ Chinese property hunters to raid US [Financial Times]
∙ Recap: What’s The Scoop On Foreign Investment In San Francisco? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

December 8, 2008

JustQuotes: Why Simply Reducing Rates Won't Cure The Market's Ills

"Almost 53 percent of borrowers whose loans were modified in the first quarter of this year re-defaulted by being more than 30 days overdue..."

∙ Majority of Modified Loans Fail Again, Regulator Says [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (46) | (email story)

December 5, 2008

Once Again, We'll Posit It's Just Starting (Not To Mention Matters)

"Skittish employers slashed 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years, catapulting the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, dramatic proof the country is careening deeper into recession."

"The unemployment rate would have moved even higher if not for the exodus of 422,000 people from the work force. Economists said many of those people probably abandoned their job searches out of sheer frustration. In November 2007, the jobless rate was at 4.7 percent."

∙ Employers cut 533K jobs in Nov., most in 34 years [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (41) | (email story)

December 3, 2008

JustQuotes: And Housing? Uhh...No.

“What we’ve seen since mid to late September is that business activity has shut down, along with the consumer,” Stephen Gallagher, chief economist at Societe Generale in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “There is no reason for an immediate turnaround; financial markets have not stabilized; consumers have not stabilized.”

∙ U.S. Economy: Service Companies Shrink at Record Pace [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

U.S. Mortgage Applications Surge With Refi's Leading The Way

While mortgage application volume surged 112 percent last week following the Fed’s "we pay cash for your debt" announcement, refi’s accounted for the bulk of the movement jumping 203 percent versus 38 for purchase.

∙ U.S. MBA’s Mortgage Applications More Than Doubled Last Week [Bloomberg]
∙ It's Like The Fed (And Taxpayers) Just Bought You A Couple Of Points [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (59) | (email story)

December 1, 2008

QuickLinks: While The Cost Of Capital Drops, Availability Does As Well

∙ Treasury Yields Drop to Record Lows as Bernanke Cites Buybacks [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. Consumers Seen Facing ‘Liquidity Squeeze’ [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

JustQuotes: A Short Sale Narrative That Sounds Awfully Familiar

“Here's the common narrative: A home goes on the market as a short sale - priced at less than is owed on the mortgage, so the lender must approve any sale. The bank either declines offers as too low or takes months to decide, which drives away potential buyers.”

∙ Be persistent during ordeal of short sale [SFGate]
∙ Did We Mention How Much That Third Party Matters? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 12/01/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 8.6% over the past two weeks (versus an average of 11% over the same time two weeks in 2006 and 2007) but is now running 33.3% higher on a year-over-year basis (up 4.9% over the past two weeks).

At the same time, listed sales activity is down dramatically on a year-over-year basis. And once again, it’s another new record with respect to the percentage of listings that have undergone at least one price reduction (currently 44.7% of all listings versus 31.6% at the same time in 2007 and 29.3% in 2006).

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 11/17/08 [SocketSite]
∙ Early San Francisco Sales Numbers For November: Down Almost 50% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

November 25, 2008

New S&P/Case-Shiller Condo Price Index: San Francisco MSA Falling

According to the newly released S&P/Case-Shiller Condo Price Index, condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 3.3% from August ’08 to September '08, are down 15.0% on a year-over-year basis, have fallen 17.2% from a high in October 2005, and have dipped below levels last seen in October 2004.

The SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller condo footnote: The Condo Price Index includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA) and is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best).

∙ S&P Launches Condo Indices; Adds Seasonally-Adjusted Data [S&P]
∙ September S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Decline Continues [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (63) | (email story)

It's Like The Fed (And Taxpayers) Just Bought You A Couple Of Points

"U.S. mortgage rates fell more than three-quarters of a percentage point today after the Federal Reserve said it will buy as much as $600 billion of debt."

∙ U.S. Mortgage Rates Fall on $600 Billion Fed Plan [Bloomberg]
∙ As Lenders (And Consumers) Hoard, The Fed Commits Another $800B [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

Early San Francisco Sales Numbers For November: Down Almost 50%

Last week we calculated a 38% single week decline in San Francisco listed sales volume with inventories up 28.4% year-over-year. And now according to a plugged-in reader, listed sales volume in San Francisco for the month of November is currently running 47% lower on a year-over-year basis based on early counts for the first three weeks of the month, while the median sales price has fallen 15% (now in line with 2004).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 11/17/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

Did We Mention How Much That Third Party Matters?

From the plugged-in listing agent for 835 Foerster:

We received an offer several months [ago] for $855,000. It took months to negotiate this sale price with the lenders (both a 1st and a 2nd), not to mention other costs such as back taxes, expenses, commissions, etc., etc...

The lenders unfortunately took too long to approve the payoff (and their losses), and the buyers just pulled out of the deal, citing personal and financing reasons. So yes, the lenders did approve the $855,000 price, but since the contract was submitted several months ago, we've experienced a big market shift.

We lowered to asking price to $788,000 [yesterday] and hope to take a new offer(s) to the lenders, and re-open negotiations.

As we said, while a seller and lender might agree, it's that third party (i.e., the buyer) that really matters. Once again, purchased with loans totaling $950,000 in July of 2006 up in Miraloma Park (District 4). And as always, thank you for plugging in.

∙ Listing: 835 Foerster (3/2.5) - $788,000 [MLS]
∙ While Those Two Agree, It’s A Third That Really Matters [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

"Foreign Buyers" Never Materialized And Now Tourist Dollars Decline

“The dollar’s resurgence, as well as a drop in home and stock values outside the U.S., will discourage foreign shoppers into next year as the global financial crisis intensifies, [Stifel Nicolaus & Co. analyst David Schick] said. He estimates sales will decline 8 percent at Tiffany’s Fifth Avenue store in New York in the third and fourth quarters, versus gains of 25 percent and 10 percent a year earlier.”

∙ Saks, Neiman May Slump More as Tourist Spending Slows [Bloomberg]
∙ Recap: What’s The Scoop On Foreign Investment In San Francisco? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

September S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Decline Continues

According to the September 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 3.9% from August ’08 to September '08 and are down 29.5% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 18.6% (having fallen 1.9% from August).

Phoenix was the weakest market, reporting an annual decline of 31.9%, followed by Las Vegas, down 31.3%, and San Francisco at -29.5%. Miami, Los Angeles, and San Diego did not fair much better with annual declines of 28.4%, 27.6% and 26.3%, respectively.

Prices continued to fall across all three price tiers in the San Francisco MSA.

The bottom third (under $386,320 at the time of acquisition) fell 3.1% from August to September (down 43.2% YOY); the middle third fell 2.2% from August to September (down 27.3% YOY); and the top third (over $647,565 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.2% from August to September (down 14.4% YOY).

And according to the Index, home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to March 2001 levels, the middle third has returned to July 2003 levels, and the top third has fallen to January 2005 levels.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI above only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ National Trend of Home Price Declines Continues Through the Third Quarter of '08 [S&P]
∙ August S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Decline Accelerates [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (38) | (email story)

November 24, 2008

The Latest Cow Hollow Condo Comp (And Apple) Closes Escrow

What plugged-in people have known for a week, all agents on the MLS now know as well: 1968 Greenwich officially closed escrow on 11/21/08 with a reported contract price of $1,750,000.

Purchased for $2,100,000 in May of 2005, in addition to $350,000 in acquisition cost our plugged-in buyer will be saving (and the City will be losing) approximately $4,000 a year in property taxes as compared to the party who sold.

The sale of this property was considered a legitimate neighborhood "comp" (comparable sale) in 2005. The implications for today?

∙ A Plugged-In Reader Picks An Apple For Himself (1968 Greenwich) [SocketSite]
∙ A Renovated Cow Hollow Apple On The Tree: 1968 Greenwich Street [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

November 21, 2008

Tough Times For The Fledgling Fillmore Jazz District's Rebirth

"Thus far, four nightlife establishments that received funding from the [San Francisco Redevelopment Agency] — Yoshi’s, 1300 On Fillmore, Sheba Lounge and Rassales — have all approached the agency looking for additional loans and to restructure debt to survive what may be a prolonged economic recession. All four businesses are seeing revenues 10 percent to 20 percent below projections, according to the memo."

∙ Fillmore businesses ask redevelopment agency for loans [San Francisco Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

JustQuotes: As Come Commercial Realities, Will Go Residential?

"Next year, we're going to have the sublease swap meet of the century," said David Klein, a partner with San Francisco brokerage firm NAI BT Commercial. "Sublessors competing for the same tenant (will) all say, 'I can do the deal cheaper than you,' and the landlords will be playing catch-up. It's the harsh reality of a recession."

∙ WaMu to shut Pleasanton center, cut 1,600 staff [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

Getting A Bit Moody About The Delinquency Trends For Alt-A Loans

From a HousingWire via a plugged-in tipster:

Severe delinquencies on recent-vintage Alt-A RMBS are quickly getting worse than expected, Moody’s Investors Service said earlier this week; the rating agency said worsening trends in Alt-A have forced it to undertake a revision of lifetime loss projections for 2006 and 2007 vintages, as a result. Moody’s last revised its loss expectations for the Alt-A sector six months ago.

As of Oct. 2008, serious delinquencies for Alt-A pools — including option ARMs — averaged 20.3 percent of current balance for the 2006 vintage and 17.5 percent for the 2007 vintage, up from 16.9 and 12.2 percent six months ago. At the same time, prepayment rates on these pools are at historical lows and are currently averaging in the mid to high single digits, Moody’s noted. Serious delinquencies refers to mortgages more than 60 days in arrears, in this case.

(In plain English, and keeping things simple: the prepayment picture here is important. Delinquencies as a percentage of current balance can go up as a matter of course as a loan pool seasons and borrowers prepay, and revintage, themselves. By stressing here that prepayments aren’t just low, but really low, Moody’s is saying that this statistical artifact is not driving the rise.)

While cumulative losses have not yet risen as steeply as delinquencies, many pools are starting to show a sharp increase in the rate of loss realization, according to Moody’s. And as the pace of liquidations has picked up, the performance data suggests worsening loss severities, as well.

∙ Alt-A Losses Outstripping Expectations, Moody’s Says [HousingWire]
∙ Subprime And Alt-A Statistics By County: The Feds Mortgage Map [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

November 20, 2008

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In October: Down 21.3% YOY

According to DataQuick, home sales volume in San Francisco fell 21.3% on a year-over-year basis last month (414 recorded sales in October ’08 versus 526 sales in October ‘07) and fell 9.6% compared to the month prior. San Francisco was the only Bay Area county to record a year-over-year sales volume decline.

Keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

San Francisco's median sales price in October was $699,000, down 12.1% compared to October ’07 ($795,000) but rose 3.6% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in October was up 38.8% on a year-over-year basis and increased 4.7% from the month prior (7,613 recorded sales in October '08 versus 5,486 in October ’07 and 7,271 in September '08), while the recorded median sales price fell 40.6% on a year-over-year basis, down 6.3% compared to the month prior. Once again, think foreclosures.

At the county level, foreclosure resales ranged from 10.6 percent of resales in San Francisco to 68 percent in Solano County. In the Bay Area's other seven counties, October foreclosure resales were as follows: Alameda, 41.1 percent; Contra Costa, 58.9 percent; Marin, 17.2 percent; Napa, 45.6 percent; Santa Clara, 36.4 percent; San Mateo, 21.6 percent; Sonoma, 49.7 percent.

At the extremes, Solano recorded a 141.1% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 436 transactions) on a 38.7% decrease in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 86.7% increase in sales volume (a gain of 877 transactions) on a 46.3% drop in median sales price.

∙ Bay Area median price tumbles to $375K; sales reach high for '08 [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In September: Down 2.3% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (38) | (email story)

From “Very” To “Extremely” For The Seller, Decoder Ring On The Way

Purchased in March of 2002 for $975,000 but then "extensively remodeled" in 2003, 1821-23 Lyon was listed two months ago for $3,295,500, reduced a month later to $2,995,500, and then cut to $2,695,000 the day before yesterday.

According to the listing(s), the seller of has gone from being very to extremely motivated (don't worry, a SocketSite decoder ring is on the way). And “OMC2” you ask? Owner may carry second (and not to be confused with OMD, they are back together you know).

∙ Listing: 1821-1823 Lyon (5/3.5) - $2,695,000 [McGuire] [MLS]
∙ A SocketSite Guide To Price Reductions [SocketSite 3/06]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (26) | (email story)

The Seven Year Itch Low: San Francisco Business Optimism Falling

"Businesses in San Francisco have been hit hard by the global economic malaise, with new figures showing Bay Area business optimism has sunk to new lows and more than one-third of companies in The City expect to shed staff [but 18% to add] before June."

In San Mateo, 48% of the firms surveyed by the Bay Area Council expect to cut jobs in the next six months, while 14% expect to add.

And in terms of when a recovery will begin, 59% of those surveyed in San Francisco are currently forecasting in one to two years, with 73% of those in San Mateo responding the same.

∙ Bay Area businesses reeling from global downturn [San Francisco Examiner]
∙ Once Again, It's Just Getting Starting (And It's Going To Last Longer) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

November 19, 2008

Did Somebody Say Deflation?

From the New York Times today:

In another sign that the struggling economy continues to slow, consumer prices tumbled by a record amount in October, carried lower by skidding energy and transportation prices, raising the specter of deflation.

From a plugged-in reader's comment we promoted last year:

Thanks for the questions regarding how I can be predicting deflation when everyone else seems to be saying inflation (and some price measures are pointing that way). It does seem contradictory, but it's really pretty straightforward when you take it step by step...

It's good to be plugged-in.

∙ Consumer Price Decline Prompts Fear of Deflation [New York Times]
∙ Promoted From Comment To Post: Satchel Does Deflation [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (130) | (email story)

Hanley Woods New Condo Stats For San Francisco: Values Falling

A plugged-in tipster quotes the latest Hanley Woods “New Homes Executive Summary”:

Attached Townhomes and Condominiums: San Francisco County (3rd Quarter 2008)
Change in Median Sales Price: +10.5% YOY
Change in Median Square Feet: +22.9% YOY
Change in Median Sales Price Per Square Foot: -10.1% YOY

Change in Average Sales Price: -3.7% YOY
Change in Average Square Feet: +3.7% YOY
Change in Average Sales Price Per Square Foot: -5.5% YOY

As we’ve been saying about those medians for quite some time, think mix. And for those who frequently confuse an increasing median with increasing value, think again.

UPDATE: A point of clarification and emphasis, Hanley Woods data is based on new units available for sale, not those which have already sold.

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

U.S. Homebuilder Confidence: At Least It Can't Go Too Much Lower...

The bad news:

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders in November dropped to the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1985, a sign that the deepening credit crisis is preventing prospective buyers from purchasing new homes.

The good news:

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence decreased to 9, lower than forecast, from 14 in October, the Washington-based association said [yesterday]. A reading less than 50 means most respondents view conditions as poor.

How's that the good news? It can only fall another nine points...

∙ Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Drops to Record Low [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

November 18, 2008

Once Again, It's Just Getting Starting (And It's Going To Last Longer)

"From a Bay Area view, the global slowdown threatens tech exports and tourism, which have so far cushioned San Francisco and the Silicon Valley from the housing bust that has already clobbered the East Bay..."

∙ Economists say recession is here, and will last [SFGate]
∙ The Google Chart Of The Day (And A Bit More Foreshadowing) [SocketSite]
∙ From Underwater To Unemployed (And Sorry, But It’s Just Starting) [SocketSite]
∙ And Speaking Of Being Plugged-In To Bay Area Employment Trends… [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

November 17, 2008

Which Five Years Will The Next Five Most Likely Resemble Redux

As we wrote a little over a year ago:

213 Moulton is a contemporary single-family home situated down a little alley in Cow Hollow. It first sold for $545,000 in 1995. And ten years later (in 2005) it changed hands for $1,672,000. No doubt about it, that's fantastic long-term appreciation. Then again, it also changed hands in the year 2000 for $1,600,000.

We only mention it now as 215 Moulton (part of the same three home development) has been on the market for a month and has recently reduced its list price $145,000 (or 7.3%). They’re now asking $1,850,000 which includes a new full bath (added in 2006) and reclaimed living space on the ground floor.

As we wrote two months ago:

215 Moulton “in the heart of Cow Hollow” appears to have been bought back by the bank with a loan balance of $1,893,000 this past July.

And while the contract price for its previous sale in November of 2007 doesn’t appear to be public, we will note a 2008 tax assessed value of $1,800,000 for this District 7 single-family contemporary townhouse.

Listed in April prior to foreclosure for $1,895,000, reduced to $1,795,000 in July, and currently asking $1,750,000.

And as we write today: the sale of 215 Moulton closed escrow on 11/14/08 with a reported contract price of $1,725,000. That's $168,000 less than its last loan balance. And $75,000 less than its last tax assessed value.

∙ Which Five Years Will The Next Five Years More Likely Resemble? [SocketSite]
∙ Cow Hollow Contemporary (And Apparent Foreclosure): 215 Moulton [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 11/17/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco remained flat over the past two weeks but is running 28.4% higher on a year-over-year basis with sales volume off by 22% (down 38% over the past week alone).

The number of listings that have undergone at least one price reduction is now up over 75% on a year-over-year basis, a new record on both an absolute and percentage basis (currently 43.1% of all listings versus 31.6% at the same time in 2007 and 28.9% in 2006).

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 11/03/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (78) | (email story)

November 14, 2008

And Speaking Of Being Plugged-In To Bay Area Employment Trends…

"Of course, if this was limited to Sun, it probably would not have a huge impact on anything concerning this site. But Sun is obviously just one of many going through this. You can't believe how swamped our labor & employment group is right now with work managing large tech layoffs, most of which are still in the planning stage (the lawyers get involved early on)."

∙ From Underwater To Unemployed (And Sorry, But It’s Just Starting) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:00 PM | Permalink | (email story)

From Underwater To Unemployed (And Sorry, But It’s Just Starting)

A plugged-in reader's comment:

Remember all the excitement over Google millionaires buying up places with cash? We are now entering a period of huge tech layoffs (see Sun as one of many examples). I'm simply pointing out that this is yet another factor that is going to have a substantial negative impact on the market, particularly in the southern half of the city (which is much more than Ingleside and Visitacion Valley).

Said example: Sun to cut up to 6,000 workers, 18 pct of staff. And of course, the foreshadowing: The Google Chart Of The Day (10/24).

UPDATE: A plugged-in Sun employee chimes in:

Sun employee (for the moment), checking in. I don't think they are going to do layoffs for a few weeks, but I do think that 6k number might actually be a little low in the end.

A huge percentage of Sun's engineers telecommute at least part time so the impact will be spread out over most of the Bay Area.

What they're really talking about with this layoff is a cut in product lines, from top to bottom. There are a couple that are really housed elsewhere and it may not hit the Bay Area much at all. I think it will probably cause more pain in the RE market in Broomfield CO than it will here.

∙ TIC Troubles Via The WSJ (But We Wouldn't Discount That Downturn) [SocketSite]
∙ Sun to cut up to 6,000 workers, 18 pct of staff [SFGate]
∙ The Google Chart Of The Day (And A Bit More Foreshadowing) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (54) | (email story)

November 13, 2008

The Potrero's New New Approach: Soliciting Minimum Sealed Bids

It appears as though The Potrero’s closeout offer of an additional $25,000 off already reduced prices of as much as $90,000 (11%) didn’t do the trick last month on those ten remaining homes. From the sales office today:

The Potrero will begin accepting sealed bids Friday, November 21, 2008 with the bid process ending on Sunday, November 23, 2008 at 5 p.m. Homes in this final release include 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom homes in the South Courtyard building – some with views of the city skyline or the beautifully landscaped courtyard. Price sheets, inventory information and the bid package required to submit a bid will be available at The Potrero sales center located at 451 Kansas Street, #312, San Francisco beginning Friday, November 14, 2003.

Minimum bids and additional details when we have them. And remember, it's not an auction. Those can only happen elsewhere. Like over in the East Bay.

∙ New Development “Closeout” Sales: The Potrero And 170 Off Third [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

TIC Troubles Via The WSJ (But We Wouldn't Discount That Downturn)

The Wall Street Journal article: Residential-TIC Tack Hits Snags.

The Quote:

The problems facing residential TICs, which are found mainly in San Francisco, are different and reflect tighter mortgage underwriting standards. Banks across the country have pulled back from all types of mortgage lending, but especially for nontraditional types of mortgages. As a result, borrowing costs for TICs have shot up, causing home buyers to avoid the structure.

Sterling Bank & Trust FSB recently raised its rate for TIC loans to 7.75% -- a loan for a similarly priced condo would require only 6% to 6.25% interest -- and now requires a down payment of at least 20% of the purchase price. Other banks are now requiring 30% down. In the past, lenders required buyers to put 10% down.

The listing: 158 Laidley ("Price REDUCED. Cut-rate financing! Stunning eco-modern...").

∙ Residential-TIC Tack Hits Snags [Wall Street Journal]
∙ Listing: 158 Laidley (5 TIC units) - $359,000 to $699,000 [158laidley.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (47) | (email story)

November 12, 2008

We’ll Pass On Getting Zillowed And Focus On The Apple-esque Data

We’ll pass on Zillow’s report on the percentage of Bay Area homes that are underwater as it relies on “zestimates” of current market value. And well, let’s just say we find the accuracy of Zillow’s zestimates to be anything but (accurate).

That being said, a key paragraph from the Chronicle's coverage of the study:

"The last recession in 2001-02 coincided with an upswing in housing market values so one could use home equity as a source of money to get them through, to smooth over volatility in their income stream," Fleming said. "That ability to use home equity as a source of income in times of economic stress now is removed" for many people.

And we are a bit more comfortable with the part of Zillow’s study that simply reports the percentage of homes that have sold over the past 12 months for less than their previous recorded sales price:

San Francisco 17.2%
Alameda 47.6%
Contra Costa 59.3%
Marin 24.1%
Napa 43.1%
San Mateo 30.2%
Santa Clara 40.1%
Solano 62.0%
Sonoma 49.9%
Bay Area 46.7%

Unlike our apples, however, not controlling or accounting for any improvements or investments (which likely results in an underreporting in the percentages above).

∙ Bay Area homeowners owe more than home's worth [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

November 11, 2008

Fannie, Freddie and Citigroup To Join The Payment Cutting Parade

"Mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and Citigroup Inc. plan to cut home-loan payments for hundreds of thousands of borrowers facing foreclosures, following similar moves by the nation's biggest banks.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will reduce principal or interest rates on some loans and extend the terms of others, people briefed on the matter said. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which seized control of Fannie and Freddie in September, scheduled a press conference at 2 p.m. in Washington to announce the plan."

∙ Citi, Fannie, Freddie to Halt Some Foreclosures [Bloomberg]
∙ JustQuotes: Proposing To Change The Terms To Protect The Principal [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (62) | (email story)

November 10, 2008

Don’t Confuse Average Prices And Appreciation: Look To The Apples

The Chronicle quote with regard to Bay Area home price appreciation:

One of the few standouts was the 94114 ZIP in San Francisco, home of Noe Valley, where houses go for well over a million dollars, designer strollers clog the sidewalks, posh shops peddle handmade ethnic tchotchkes, and the Google bus regularly cruises the streets.

But even that ZIP didn't enjoy the double-digit appreciation that became de rigueur during the real estate boom. Instead Noe Valley prices were up 6.8 percent year over year, from $893 a square foot [in 2007] to $954 [in 2008].

The problem: In a market like Noe where we’ve seen an increase in high-end renovations, sales and even some new construction, an increase in average sales price should not be confused with market "appreciation." Once again, think mix. And yes, even on a square foot basis.

The reality: Noe Valley apples (i.e., same home sales) paint a different - and we’d be willing to bet more accurate - picture of what’s happening with actual home values in Noe Valley these days. And up 6.8% year over year isn't it.

∙ Home prices down in 90% of Bay Area ZIP codes [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (65) | (email story)

Reis Says: San Francisco Rents Up. Readers Say: But Falling.

"The average monthly price for a rental home in the San Francisco area, which includes San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin, leapt $251 over the past two years, from $1,579 in the third quarter of 2006 to $1,830 in the same quarter in 2008, according to data released Friday by national research firm Reis Inc."

Civic Center / Downtown: Up 21.5% from Q3 2006 to Q3 2008
(Q3 2006: $1,198; Q3 2007: $1,328; Q3 2008: $1,455)
Vacancy rate: 2.2 percent

Haight Ashbury / Western Addition: Up 20.6% from Q3 2006 to Q3 2008
(Q3 2006: $1,526; Q3 2007: $1,649; Q3 2008: $1,841)
Vacancy rate: 3.7 percent

West San Francisco: Up 18.5% from Q3 2006 to Q3 2008
(Q3 2006: $1,655; Q3 2007: $1,762; Q3 2008: $1,961)
Vacancy rate: 5.3 percent

Marina / Pacific Heights: Up 15.7% from Q3 2006 to Q3 2008
(Q3 2006: $1,908; Q3 2007: $2,075; Q3 2008: $2,208)
Vacancy rate: 2.4 percent

South of Market: Up 15.6% from Q3 2006 to Q3 2008
(Q3 2006: $1,898; Q3 2007: $2,079; Q3 2008: $2,194)
Vacancy rate: 4.3 percent

Russian Hill / Embarcadero: Up 11.8% from Q3 2006 to Q3 2008
(Q3 2006: $2,064; Q3 2007: $2,318; Q3 2008: $2,307)
Vacancy rate: 2.0 percent

UPDATE: An important point we neglected to make (but a plugged-in reader didn't):

Reis only contacts large apartments. About 90% of the rentals in SF are in small buildings so the data is almost worthless in SF (unless all you care about is the "asking" rent at large apartments like Parkmerced or Fillmore Center)...

∙ Rents continue to climb [San Francisco Examiner]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (46) | (email story)

November 6, 2008

A Renovated Single-Family Noe Valley Apple Gets Picked: 1604 Castro

The sale of 1604 Castro Street closed escrow yesterday (11/5/08) with a reported contract price of $1,000,000 (was listed for $1,050,000). Purchased for $920,000 in December of 2004, the sale of 1604 Castro represents average annual appreciation of roughly 2.2% over the past four years for this renovated single-family Noe Valley home.

That's not the kind of appreciation that was being sold, or bought, by most at the end of 2004. And while the temptation will be to see this as proof that home values in Noe have been holding steady, it’s a temptation we’d avoid (unlike chocolate).

As an aside, while there were 29 single-family homes and 39 condos/TICs listed in Noe at the time this home hit the market a month ago, there are now 38 and 52.

∙ A Noe Valley Apple Ripens As The Orchard Expands: 1604 Castro [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (55) | (email story)

November 3, 2008

Is That A Listing With Big Views (And Price) In Your Pocket Or…

From a plugged-in tipster: "A one-bedroom for $2.895 MM! There are a lot of pocket listings/off-market listings out there right now." That there are.

Let's think about why and what it means (in terms of market, reports and industry overall). And let's not forget to send the good ones (story, design, or price) our way.

∙ Listing: 1200 California #25a (1/1.5) 1,425 sqft - $2,895,000 [1200california25a.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (46) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 11/03/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco remained flat over the past two weeks but is running 18.0% higher on a year-over-year basis.

The number of listings that have undergone at least one price reduction is now up over 66% on a year-over-year basis, a new record on both an absolute and percentage basis (currently 40.0% of all listings versus 28.7% at the same time in 2007 and 28.5% in 2006).

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 10/13/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

October 29, 2008

The Fed Cuts Rates To One Percent To Avert "Prolonged" Recession

A year ago Friday the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% and signaled that further cuts were unlikely. The thought at the time:

"Today's action, combined with the policy action taken in September, should help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets," the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting today in Washington. "After this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth."

This morning, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate to 1 percent, “matching a half-century low, in an effort to avert the worst U.S. economic downturn in the postwar era." And with that, the rate kegs have nearly run dry.

∙ Fed Cuts Rate to 1% to Avert Prolonged Recession [Bloomberg]
∙ The Federal Reserve Cuts Benchmark/Discount Rates By 0.25% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (32) | (email story)

It's "Official," One Rincon Hill's Tower Two Is Indefinitely On Hold

It’s now "official" and in the open. The construction of One Rincon Hill's second tower has been indefinitely put on hold. And roughly 30% of tower one inventory has yet to close.

The plugged-in word on the street: talk of potential class action lawsuits with regard to the loss of tower two amenities and the handling of closings/deposits in tower one.

And with regard to a reader’s comment: “So how come CBS has the story of One Rincon cancelling/delaying the second tower before SocketSite??” Good question. There's no excuse. And perhaps that's the price we pay for delaying our latest Complete Inventory Index (Cii).

UPDATE: Keep in mind there's a big difference between “cancelled” and “on hold.” And while we’re done holding our breath for the actual groundbreaking of tower two, we do believe it will eventually come (and that we'll be the first to report it when it does).

UPDATE: Or in the words of developer Mike Kriozere, “We own the land, we have the financing and our construction [plans and] contracts are in place...Like others, our team is watching the economy for the proper time to re-commence construction.”

∙ Rincon Hill Among SF Building Projects Put On Hold [CBS]
∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (Cii): Q1 2008 (San Francisco) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (93) | (email story)

October 28, 2008

Argenta's Confirmed And Artani's Rumored, Will 77 Van Ness Be Next?

With Argenta (One Polk) on the market as an apartment building, and a reader suggesting that The Artani (818 Van Ness) might just follow suit (in terms of going rental), we’re keeping a close eye on the 56 units at 77 Van Ness (pictured above).

Regardless, with Symphony Towers (750 Van Ness) down the block cutting prices by up to 30% and The Hayes (55 Page) around the corner by up to 21%, we have a feeling they can’t finish construction on 77 Van Ness fast enough.

UPDATE: With a couple rental listings directly via Paragon on Craigslist (a two-bedroom at $4,250 and a fully furnished one-bedroom at $3,999), The Artani is at the very least testing the rental waters for a few of its 52 units.

∙ The Scoop: Argenta (1 Polk) On The Market As An Apartment Building [SocketSite]
∙ The Artani (818 Van Ness) Update: From Unveiled To Unwrapped [SocketSite]
∙ 77 Van Ness Rising (And Our Request For A Rendering) [SocketSite]
∙ Price Cuts Of Up To 30% At Symphony Towers (750 Van Ness) [SocketSite]
∙ New Development “Closeout” Sales: The Potrero And 170 Off Third [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (30) | (email story)

August S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Decline Accelerates

According to the August 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 3.5% from July ’08 to August ’08 and are down 27.3% year-over-year.

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 17.7% (having fallen 1.1% from July).

Both the 10-City and 20-City Composites have been in year-over-year decline for 20 consecutive months. Of the 20 regions, 13 of them had their annual returns worsen from last month’s report. As seen throughout 2008, the Sun Belt markets are being hit the most. Phoenix and Las Vegas are both reporting annual declines in excess of 30%, and Miami, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego are all in excess of 25%.

Prices fell across all three price tiers in the San Francisco MSA with the rates of decline accelerating across the board.

The bottom third (under $409,952 at the time of acquisition) fell 4.8% from July to August (down 42.7% YOY); the middle third fell 2.2% from July to August (down 26.3% YOY); and the top third (over $674,537 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.1% from July to August (down 13.6% YOY).

And according to the Index, home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have retreated to December 2001 levels, the middle third has returned to October 2003 levels, and the top third has fallen below February 2005 levels.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ National Trend of Home Price Declines Continues into the Second Half of 2008 [S&P]
∙ July S&P/Case-Shiller: Pace Of San Francisco MSA Decline Continues [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (79) | (email story)

October 27, 2008

U.S. New Home Builders Start Seeing The Light (As Do Some Locals)

Sales of U.S. new homes rose 2.7% from July to September on a median sales price not seen since September 2004, but fell 33% from September 2007 on overall lower demand.

“Builders are seeing the light,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “They are cutting prices more aggressively. They're very nervous about all the foreclosures.”

Or in the case of San Francisco, the slowing of new home absorption (which shouldn’t catch any plugged-in readers by surprise).

∙ U.S. New-Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise as Prices Drop [Bloomberg]
∙ Price Cuts Of Up To 30% At Symphony Towers (750 Van Ness) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

October 25, 2008

Price Cuts Of Up To 30% At Symphony Towers (750 Van Ness)

Plugged-in people knew the cuts were coming. And as one reports, they’re here. Prices at Symphony Towers (750 Van Ness) have been reduced by up to 30% or $136,000. A few examples:

∙ 750 Van Ness #T-405 (1/1) - $399,000 (was $535,000)
∙ 750 Van Ness #T-601 (1/1) - $459,000 (was $577,000)
∙ 750 Van Ness #T-602 (1/1) - $449,000 (was $565,000)
∙ 750 Van Ness #T-804 (0/1) - $295,000 (was $420,000)
∙ 750 Van Ness #T-806 (0/1) - $319,000 (was $455,000)
∙ 750 Van Ness #T-907 (0/1) - $419,000 (was $515,000)

Once again, currently around 55% sold. And with The Hayes cutting prices by up to 21%, the race for buyers in San Francisco is on. And it's plugged-in people that will win.

∙ Symphony Towers (750 Van Ness): Announcing Additional Cuts [SocketSite]
∙ Symphony Towers Update: Buying Love (But Dropping Prices Too) [SocketSite]
∙ New Development “Closeout” Sales: The Potrero And 170 Off Third [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (68) | (email story)

October 24, 2008

New Development “Closeout” Sales: The Potrero And 170 Off Third

Last weekend it was The Potrero that was offering “an additional $25,000 off* in addition to...already reduced prices” of as much as $90,000 (11%) on its ten remaining homes. Oh, and 12 months of pre-paid HOA dues.

This week 170 Off Third is advertising that its onsite Sales Center will shut down November 10th with “Final Offers” accepted November 8th and 9th and implores you to ”prepare a reasonable offer.” Let us know if you do. And just how reasonable it was.

And once again, Symphony Towers announced they’re cutting prices. Look for banners this weekend (and an update with the details when they’re released).

UPDATE: As a plugged-in reader notes, The Hayes cut prices today. The list prices on 55 Page #326 and #612 were reduced from $829,000 to $699,000 (a 16% drop), #610 was reduced from $599,000 to $499,000 (a 17% drop), and #522 was reduced from $429,000 to $339,000 (a 21% drop).

∙ Symphony Towers (750 Van Ness): Announcing Additional Cuts [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

535 Mission Street: From Office To Residential To Office To Suspended

"With the markets in turmoil and rents falling, Beacon Capital Partners has suspended construction on its 27-story office tower at 535 Mission St., the only speculative downtown highrise slated to be built over the next few years.

The $100 million HOK-designed tower was put on hold earlier this month in response to worsening market conditions. A spokesman for the Department of Building Inspection said the building permits had not been withdrawn yet. The excavation on the project was complete and contractor Swinerton had completed the pile driving."

∙ Construction work suspended at new downtown office tower [Business Times]
∙ Approved For Residential, But Building Commercial (535 Mission) [SocketSite]
∙ 535 Mission Update: Parking Lot Closed And About To Break Ground? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (30) | (email story)

October 23, 2008

Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Up 36% QOQ (191% YOY)

Bay Area Notices of Default (NODs) increased 44% on a year-over-year basis in the third quarter of 2008, up 40% in San Francisco proper (from 252 to 353). And while the number of new NODs in San Francisco fell 15% from the second quarter, do keep in mind that a new state law took effect in September that can add 30 days to the lead time for a lender to file a notice.

At the same time, actual Bay Area foreclosures rose 273% (from 3,242 to 12,093) with Contra Costa (up 216% to 3,662), Alameda (up 274% to 2,521) and Santa Clara (up 428% to 2,165) leading the way. Recorded foreclosures in San Francisco totaled 192, up 191% on a year-over-year basis and up 36% (51 homes) from the second quarter 2008.

Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between October 2005 and February 2007. The median age was 28 months, up from 18 months a year earlier.

In other words and once again, we're moving from those who were simply undercapitalized to begin with, to those who had more of a cushion in the bank.

∙ California mortgage default filings drop amid procedural change [DataQuick]
∙ Actual Bay Area Foreclosures Up 314% (San Francisco Up 182%) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

October 21, 2008

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In September: Down 2.3% YOY

According to DataQuick, home sales volume in San Francisco fell 2.3% on a year-over-year basis last month (458 recorded sales in September ’08 versus 469 sales in September ‘07) and fell 13.4% compared to the month prior. San Francisco and San Mateo were the only two Bay Area counties to record a sales volume decline.

Keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded). And based on our calculations, listed sales activity is currently running 30% lower on a year-over-year basis.

San Francisco's median sales price in September was $675,000, down 12.7% compared to September ’07 ($773,000) and down 6.9% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in September was up 45% on a year-over-year basis and increased a nominal 0.5% from the month prior (7,271 recorded sales in September '08 versus 5,014 in August ’07 and 7,232 in August '08), while the recorded median sales price fell 36% on a year-over-year basis, down 10.5% compared to the month prior. Once again, think foreclosures.

At the extremes, Solano recorded a 101.2% year-over-year increase in sales volume (a gain of 325 transactions) on a 35.7% decrease in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 94.3% increase in sales volume (a gain of 874 transactions) on a 45.6% drop in median sales price.

∙ Bay Area home sales up 45% over '07; median price falls to $400K [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In August: Down 8.3% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 10/13/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (67) | (email story)

October 17, 2008

U.S. Single-Family Housing Starts Fall While Multifamily Starts Rise

U.S. Single-family housing starts in September fell 12 percent to their lowest level in 26 years while multifamily home starts (which includes apartment buildings) climbed 7.5 percent from month prior. The key sentence (and continued foreshadowing) from Bloomberg's coverage: "Builders will find it difficult to lure buyers into the market after stock prices plunged this month and banks made it harder to qualify for a mortgage."

Okay, and this one as well: "The full impact from the financial meltdown is yet to come."

∙ Single-Family Home Starts in U.S. Fall to 26-Year Low [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

October 16, 2008

Developers In San Francisco Getting Squeezed From Both Sides

Last week we surfaced the issue of construction loan covenants putting pressure on developers to sell, this week the mortgage lenders get into the act. From the Mark Company by way of a plugged-in tipster:

• Wells Fargo now requires that 25% of the units be in contract or closed before they can fund the first loan.

• Chase is requiring that 51% of the units be in contract or closed before the first loan can close. Their previous presale requirement was 25%. We first saw this in Los Angeles, but the requirement has now been instituted nationally.

• Countrywide now bases the required presale percentage on the project's sales velocity. Well-marketed projects with solid absorption may have a presale requirement of 15%, while slower moving projects have higher presale thresholds.

In addition to varying presale requirements, lenders will continually evaluate the ongoing success of a project, as well as the developer's reputation and financial position. [The Mark Company's] understanding is that a project with a sales velocity of 3-4 homes in contract per month will be considered marketable and therefore acceptable for the lender to continue processing loans on. Should a project fall below that threshold, loans may be discontinued.

In the words of our tipster:

A mortgage broker friend of mine suggests that this takes things back to “the old days” when no lender wanted to be the first one in a project. The first 25% of the units would typically be sold/financed subject to “simultaneous” escrow closes.

And in the words of us: there are other old days (now new new days) implications as well.

∙ RandomRumors: Calling On That Guy And The Guy He Heard It From [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

Jumbo-Conforming Loans Going, Going, And Almost Gone

A good reminder from Julian Hebron at Residential Pacific Mortgage:

Be advised that super-conforming loans up to $729k will be gone as of December 31. Those loans have to fund, clear all lenders’ books, and be in the hands of Fannie or Freddie by December 31, so many lenders are not accepting these loans past the end of October, but there are some players that will go a bit longer. Anyone looking for these loan amounts needs to consider their timing.

Get them while you can. And keep in mind that once the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 and it's $729,750 conforming loan limit for San Francisco expires, it's the conforming loan maximum of $625,500 or Jumbo market to which we'll have to turn.

∙ Will San Francisco Suffer From Premature Loan Limit Reduction? No. [SocketSite]
∙ If Lowering Rates Isn’t Working, Perhaps Increasing Limits Will [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (26) | (email story)

October 15, 2008

California Association of Realtors’ 2009 Forecast (And Perhaps Folly)

If the California Association of Realtors’ 2009 forecast is accurate, the median sales price of a home in California will decline by 6 percent in 2009 while sales volume will rise 12.5%.

Regardless, there’s the quote with which we absolutely don’t agree (once again, cue the foreshadowing): ""The worst is over, but we're still not out of the woods," said Leslie Appleton-Young, the association's chief economist." And the one with which we do: "This forecast is not baking in a recession with huge job losses."

Or as JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said today, "We have to be prepared that [the economic slump] gets a lot worse and we are." Unfortunately CAR doesn't appear to be part of that latter "we."

∙ Forecast: Calif. home prices to dip further in '09 [SFGate]
∙ JPMorgan's Dimon Plans for More Loan Losses as Economy Weakens [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (50) | (email story)

October 14, 2008

While Seasonality Is In Effect, That's Not What This Is About

As we wrote two weeks ago:

…based on our calculations, the number of new contracts written for listed [San Francisco] properties in the fourth week of September was down roughly 25% as compared to the year prior (which was down roughly 17% as compared to the year prior to that), and is running roughly 22% lower on a year-over-year basis with respect to the last two weeks of the month.

As we wrote yesterday morning:

…based on our calculations, and setting the stage for tomorrow’s “on topic” post, new contract volume last week dropped 45% from the week prior and was off by 31% on a year-over-year basis.

And as Redfin wrote yesterday afternoon (about the markets in which they play):

…the past few weeks have seen a major reversal. As the stock market wiped out prospective down-payments, tours and offers dropped 30%. Transactions that were done came undone. October will still be pretty good, then we’re headed for a big dip.

Keep in mind it's the same story in brokerages and sales offices throughout town – the transaction downturn not the layoffs (as far as we know) – they just haven't had any reason to let it be publicly known.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/29/08 [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 10/13/08 [SocketSite]
∙ Sequoia’s Take On The New New (And Quite Local) Economy [SocketSite]
∙ A Very Tough Day [Redfin]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (30) | (email story)

October 13, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Update: 10/13/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco continued to climb over the past two weeks, is flirting with the 1,800 units mark, and is currently running 16.8% higher on a year-over-year basis.

The number of listings that have undergone at least one price reduction is up over 56% on a year-over-year basis, setting a new record (at least since we've been keeping track) on both an absolute and percentage basis (currently 34.5% versus 27.4% at the same time in 2007 and 24.4% in 2006).

And based on our calculations, and setting the stage for tomorrow’s “on topic” post, new contract volume last week dropped 45% from the week prior and was off by 31% on a year-over-year basis.

And with that, we really are taking the rest of the day off.

[The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).]

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/29/08 [SocketSite]
∙ Sequoia’s Take On The New New (And Quite Local) Economy [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (132) | (email story)

October 10, 2008

Sequoia’s Take On The New New (And Quite Local) Economy

It's not the kind of image on which we typically like to end the week, but In the words of a plugged-in tipster:

Know this is a bit off topic, but since the valley tech is such a driver for home sales (and vc dollars are a driver for tech), thought you might be interested in this if you haven’t already seen it.

PowerPoint from Sequoia Capital...just delivered this to their ~100 portfolio companies. Good economic context, and, equally importantly, a telling embedded message (fire as many ppl as it takes to get to break even).

Yep. And our "on topic" take on Tuesday (we're taking Monday off).

∙ Sequoia Capital on startups and the economic downturn [slideshare.net]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (32) | (email story)

The Graphic To Go With The 2008 Granted Reductions

As a plugged-in reader points out, the Chronicle's graphic (and story) to accompany the tax assessor's 2008 granted reductions above, and and the stories of a number of plugged-in readers who either succeeded or failed below.

And yes, lot's of biases but interesting nonetheless (if not only in terms of perception).

∙ Home-tax trims won't hurt S.F., assessor says [SFGate]
∙ Average Granted Assessed Value Reduction In San Francisco: 11.5% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

October 8, 2008

Average Granted Assessed Value Reduction In San Francisco: 11.5%

The tax assessor tally for San Francisco homeowners is in: 1,673 requests for property value reevaluations, 810 reductions granted (of which hopefully reader Rillion was one), and an average reduction of 11.5%/$137,057 citywide (in other words, we're not just talking about the "cheap" stuff).

UPDATE: A comment from a consistently plugged-in broker:

Even though I have proof in the form of apples to apples sales comps that my home value has declined 15%, I was denied a reduction and have to go to a full hearing.

The City is being selective and arbitrary in this whole process. Yes, I am a broker, but I am also the owner of a declining asset.

Obviously our Mystery Realtor must be "cherry picking" those apples...

∙ JustQuotes: It's Time To Make Some Property Tax Lemonade [SocketSite]
∙ More than 800 homeowners granted a reduction in assessed value [Examiner]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (39) | (email story)

Unlike In San Francisco, U.S. Pending Home Resales (Were) Up

According to the National Association of Realtors, the rate of pending U.S. home resales rose 7.4% from July to August and is up 8.8% on a year over year basis. Pending sales in the West jumped 18.4% driven by foreclosure activity.

Keep in mind that both resale and new home sales volume continues to fall in San Francisco. And a couple of things have changed in the U.S. since August.

∙ U.S. Pending Home Resales Rose 7.4% as Foreclosures Cut Prices [Bloomberg]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In August: Down 8.3% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

October 7, 2008

Six-Month Libor Lifts Off As Well (Just In Time For That Reset Redux)

From Citigroup via Bloomberg:

About 121,000 mortgages will reset for the first time next month, according to the Citigroup report, which looked at only securitized mortgages. About 1.8 million loans have already begun adjusting based on benchmark rates, the report said, while 3.7 million face resets scheduled for after next month.

"Almost all" subprime and Alt-A ARMs with a few years of fixed rates, about 60 percent of those prime-jumbo mortgages and about 75 percent of such loans in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae bonds are linked to Libor, the report said. The loans most often are pegged to six-month Libor.

Over the past three weeks six-month Libor has climed from three percent to over four. And if you've held for over three years (or under one), it's likely higher than before.

∙ Libor Rise to Boost Subprime ARM Defaults 10%, Citigroup Says [Bloomberg]
∙ JustQuotes: ARM Holders Take Note, Libor Lifts Off [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

September 30, 2008

July S&P/Case-Shiller: Pace Of San Francisco MSA Decline Continues

According to the July 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.8% from June ’08 to July ’08 and are down 24.8% year-over-year (once again, a new record low).

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 17.5% (having fallen 1.1% from June).

Prices fell across both the bottom and top price tiers for the San Francisco MSA while the middle tier was unchanged. The bottom third (under $432,119 at the time of acquisition) fell 4.1% from June to July (down 41.3% YOY); the middle third remained unchanged from June to July (down 25.2% YOY); and the top third (over $696,153 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.6% from June to July (down 11.1% YOY).

And according to the Index, home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have returned to May 2002 levels, the middle third remains at December 2003 levels, and the top third is approaching February 2005 levels.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ Continued Record Home Price Declines [S&P]
∙ June S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues Decline [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (122) | (email story)

September 29, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/29/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco continued to climb over the past two weeks, briefly broke through the 1,700 units mark, and is currently running 14.2% higher on a year-over-year basis.

At the same time and based on our calculations, the number of new contracts written for listed properties in the fourth week of September was down roughly 25% as compared to the year prior (which was down roughly 17% as compared to the year prior to that), and is running roughly 22% lower on a year-over-year basis with respect to the last two weeks of the month.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/15/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (32) | (email story)

September 26, 2008

Speaking Of Office Space (And Absorption) In San Francisco

Office leasing in San Francisco by the numbers and by way of the Business Times: 550,000 square feet of negative absorption in the third quarter (including 111,000 square feet in SoMa) and 684,000 square feet of negative absorption for the year.

∙ San Francisco tenants dump office space [Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

September 25, 2008

U.S. New Home Sales Continue To Decline, Builder Angles For Bailout

The pace of new home sales in the U.S. were down 35 percent on a year-over-year basis last month (“the lowest annual rate since the 1991 recession”) led by a 36 percent drop from July to August in the West.

Lennar Corp., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder, this week reported its sixth straight quarterly loss and said the government must take measures to boost home prices that are down by nearly a fifth from their 2006 peaks.

"Consensus is building that falling home prices are not only detrimental to the economy at large, but in order to repair our failing financial system we will have to stop the decline," Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said.

No word on whether or not Mr. Miller would be willing to help fund such government “measures” by donating the record monies earned by Lennar prior to said decline.

∙ U.S. Economy: Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders Drop [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

September 23, 2008

Listed Inventory (Up) And Sales (Down) Mini-Update: 9/23/08

A more complete update next week, but active listed inventory in San Francisco crossed the 1,600 mark for the first time in at least three years last weekend (now up 12.1% on a year-over-year basis) while listed sales activity last week appears to have run roughly 18% off the levels of the year prior (and 43% below the year before that).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/15/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

September 18, 2008

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In August: Down 8.3% YOY

According to DataQuick, home sales volume in San Francisco fell 8.3% on a year-over-year basis last month (529 recorded sales in August ’08 versus 577 sales in August ‘07) and fell 13.1% compared to the month prior.

Keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

San Francisco's median sales price in August was $725,000, down 11.8% compared to August ’07 ($822,000) and down 3.2% compared to the month prior.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in August was down 0.9% on a year-over-year basis and fell 4.7% from the month prior (7,232 recorded sales in August '08 versus 7,299 in August ’07 and 7,586 in July '08), while the recorded median sales price fell 31.8% on a year-over-year basis, down 4.9% compared to the month prior. Once again, think foreclosures.

Last month's sales total was the second-lowest for an August, behind 6,688 sales in August 1992, in MDA DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. An "average" August had 10,031 sales, while the peak August in 2004 had 13,940.

At the county level, foreclosure resales ranged from 8.6 percent of resales in San Francisco to 61.3 percent in Solano County. In the Bay Area's other seven counties, August foreclosure resales were as follows: Contra Costa, 54.4 percent; Marin, 13.5 percent; Napa, 39 percent; Santa Clara, 24.7 percent; San Mateo, 16.6 percent; Sonoma, 41.6 percent.

At the extremes, San Mateo recorded a 23.4% year-over-year reduction in sales volume (a loss of 171 transactions) and a 19.8% decrease in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 35.5% increase in sales volume (a gain of 454 transactions) but a 42.1% drop in median sales price.

∙ Bay Area home sales near bottom again, median price plunges [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In July: Up 8.0% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (82) | (email story)

Goodbuy (sic) Supermarkets, Specialty Retailers Are In The House(s)

"[S]upermarket sites are some of the last large real estate lots in the city. Eager developers are making such generous offers that store owners would be crazy to turn them down. No wonder supermarkets are an endangered species in the city."

∙ Supermarkets an endangered species in S.F. [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

September 17, 2008

Mortgage Rates Dip, Applications Climb, And "Paper Losses" Count

"Last week, applications by homeowners looking to refinance their mortgages spiked 88 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Refinances accounted for nearly 52 percent of all application activity, up from 36 percent the previous week...purchase applications also edged up last week by 5 percent.

But while the number of applications soared last week, the approval rates will likely be low because appraisals for many homes are coming in close to or below the amount of the existing mortgages."

∙ Applications to refinance home mortgages surge [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

JustQuotes: ARM Holders Take Note, Libor Lifts Off

"The overnight Libor rate in U.S. dollars soared 3.33 percentage points to 6.44 percent today, its biggest jump in at least seven years....The one-week rate rose by more than a percentage point, to 3.88 percent from 2.49 percent on Monday, and the one-month rate increased to 2.75 percent from 2.5 percent."

∙ U.S. Mortgage Rates May Wreak Havoc After Libor Gain [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (36) | (email story)

September 15, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/15/08

As expected, inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco jumped over the past two weeks (15.5% versus an average of 25.8% for the same two weeks in the past two years). Listed inventory is currently running 9.7% higher on a year-over-year basis.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/02/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

September 12, 2008

Once again...Forget Subprime In San Francisco, But How About Alt-A?

As we wrote last year, "Forget Subprime In San Francisco, But How About Alt-A?" And from Bloomberg today:

About 3 million U.S. borrowers have Alt-A mortgages totaling $1 trillion, compared with $855 billion of subprime loans outstanding, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication in Bethesda, Maryland. Of the Alt-A borrowers, 70 percent may have exaggerated their income, said David Olson, president of mortgage research firm Wholesale Access in Columbia, Maryland.

∙ Alt-A Mortgages Next Risk for Housing Market as Defaults Surge [Bloomberg]
∙ JustQuotes: Forget Subprime In San Francisco, But How About Alt-A? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (84) | (email story)

September 9, 2008

U.S. Pending Home Resales Fall 3.2% MOM (10.6% In The West)

The National Association of Realtors’ index for pending U.S. home resales fell 3.2% in July (10.6% in the West).

The pending resales report is considered a leading indicator because it tracks contract signings. Closings, which typically occur a month or two later, are tallied in a separate report from the Realtors.

That being said, keep in mind that seasonality is very much in play (and pending resales were not down YOY in the West).

∙ U.S. Pending Home Resales Decline More Than Forecast [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

September 5, 2008

U.S. Foreclosure Rates For Prime Loans Continues To Accelerate

According to the latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the pace of new U.S. home foreclosures "increased to 1.19 percent, rising above 1 percent for the first time in the survey's 29 years."

Tumbling home prices are making it difficult for even the most creditworthy owners with adjustable-rate mortgages to sell or get a new loan as their financing costs rise, said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist. Prime ARMs accounted for 23 percent of new foreclosures and subprime ARMs were 36 percent, he said.

"People chose the lowest payment option to get into some of the very expensive housing markets and now that prices are coming way down, they can't sell and they can't afford the higher payments," Brinkmann said in an interview.

Also noted, while the rate of new foreclosures on subprime loans rose from 4.06 percent to 4.7 percent over the past year, the rate of new foreclosures for prime ARMs jumped from 0.58 percent to 1.82 percent and "the share of seriously delinquent prime ARMs was 6.78 percent, rising from 2.02 percent a year ago."

And on that note, we do a quick flashback to 2005: An ARM (And Quite Possibly A Leg).

∙ U.S. Mortgage Foreclosures, Delinquencies Reach Highs [Bloomberg]
∙ An ARM (And Quite Possibly A Leg) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (46) | (email story)

JustQuotes: Foreigners Buoying Sales (Retail Not Real Estate)

"San Francisco’s job market is weakening, being buoyed by ongoing strength in the tourism industry, according to The City’s monthly economic barometer."

"The monthly economic report also states that The City’s retail sector may be “cooling after several years of rapid growth.” The report points to a “significantly lower” number of cars parking at garages around Union Square compared to last year without a commensurate increase in transit ridership."

∙ San Francisco's job market losing steam [Examiner]
∙ Recap: What’s The Scoop On Foreign Investment In San Francisco? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

September 4, 2008

QuickLinks: A Luxury Market Triptych

∙ Some Extra Bread To Go With That Cake At 2090 Vallejo [SocketSite 8/07]
∙ Mansion Price Drops $7 Million; Bentley Offered on Luxury Homes [Bloomberg 9/08]
∙ Not The Best “Investment” For Agassi In Tiburon [SocketSite 11/06]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

September 2, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/02/08

As expected, inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 3.7% over the past two weeks (versus an average of 7.5% over the prior two years) and is currently running 18% higher on a year-over-year basis.

Expect to see listed inventory spike over the next couple of weeks as buyers, sellers and agents alike return from vacation and listings new and old return to the market.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 8/18/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (25) | (email story)

August 26, 2008

June S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues Decline

According to the June 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.8% from May ’08 to June ’08 and are down 23.7% year-over-year (a new record low).

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 17.0% (having fallen only 0.6% from May).

Prices fell across all three price tiers for the San Francisco MSA with the upper tier falling 1.4% from May to June and erasing the 0.9% gain from April to May.

The bottom third (under $446,755 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.8% from May to June (down 39.6% YOY); the middle third fell 0.6% from May to June (down 25.8% YOY); and the top third (over $706,704 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.4% from May to June (down 10.2% YOY).

And according to the Index, home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have returned to June 2002 levels, the middle third to December 2003 levels, and the top third continues to hold at March 2005 levels.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ National Trend of Home Price Declines Continued [S&P]
∙ May S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Declines (But Rate Slows) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (153) | (email story)

August 25, 2008

Pace Of U.S. Existing Home Sales Up (MOM) But Still Off (YOY)

The pace of U.S. previously owned homes rose 3.1% in July to an annual rate of 5 million homes as the median price fell $16,200 (7%) on a year-over-year basis, but remains 13% below the pace of 2007.

The increase in sales wasn't enough to keep up with the surge in properties coming into the market as foreclosures mount. There were a record 4.67 million unsold houses and condos on the market in July, representing 11.2 month's supply at the current sales pace, matching the highest ever. The [National Association of Realtors] has said a five to six months' supply is consistent with a stable market.

The jump in inventory was driven by an increase in the supply of condos as projects started one or two years ago came on the market, the Realtors group said.

∙ U.S. Economy: Existing Home Sales Increased 3.1 Percent in July [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

August 20, 2008

Mortgage Modifications: Short-Term Solution To Long-Term Problem?

The intended impact of lowering mortgage interest rates for IndyMac borrowers who are currently delinquent:

“We hope to keep tens of thousands of troubled borrowers in their homes and avoid the negative consequences that foreclosures can have on the broader economy,'' [FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair] said.

The unintended impact (and food for thought):

Bair's efforts may lower the value of mortgage-bond holdings by delaying foreclosures until home prices are lower, said Julian Mann, a mortgage- and asset-backed bond manager at First Pacific Advisors LLC in Los Angeles, which oversees $11 billion.

∙ FDIC Will Modify Mortgages for Some IndyMac Borrowers [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

San Francisco Affordability: Is C.A.R.'s New Reality Already Old?

According to the California Association of Realtors and their First Time Buyer Housing Affordability Index, 23% of San Francisco households can currently afford to purchase a home priced at 85% of the local median. Their assumptions: $693,840 purchase price, 10% down, 5.69% financing (ARM), monthly payment of $4,420 (including taxes and insurance), and a household income of $132,550.

That’s up from 18% affordability a year ago, up from 16% the year before that, and up from 9% prior to C.A.R. redefining how their index is calculated.

As you might recall, it was two years ago that C.A.R. changed their 24-year-old index to reflect a down payment of 10% (down from 20%), a monthly payment of no more than 40% of a household’s income (up from 30%), and a short-term adjustable rate mortgage (versus long-term fixed). The rational at the time:

In the more than two decades since the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® first conceived the HAI, the mortgage finance landscape has changed dramatically. The range of mortgage products available to buyers as well as underwriting criteria has changed.

C.A.R. developed the new index measuring affordability for first-time home buyers to better reflect the realities of today’s real estate market.

Now about the new new realities and underwriting criteria two years later (today)...

∙ Entry-level housing affordability increases 50 percent [C.A.R.]
∙ Affordability Is Up! (But Not Really) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (150) | (email story)

August 19, 2008

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In July: Up 8.0% YOY

According to DataQuick, home sales volume in San Francisco rose 8.0% on a year-over-year basis last month (609 recorded sales in July ’08 versus 564 sales in July ‘07) and rose 6.7% compared to the month prior.

Keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

San Francisco's median sales price in July was $749,000, down 6.3% compared to July ’07 ($799,000), but up 3.1% compared to the month prior. In terms of mix, we see the median being weighed down by the recording of Below Market Rate units (which is also spiking recorded sales activity) and a nominal uptick in activity in less expensive Districts (a shift of around 3% based on listed transactions).

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in July was up 2.2% on a year-over-year basis and increased 5.7% from the month prior (7,586 recorded sales in July '08 versus 7,423 in July ’07 and 7,178 in June '08). But the recorded median sales price fell 29.3% on a year-over-year basis (down 3.1% compared to the month prior).

July sales were the highest for any month since June 2007 and marked the first annual sales gain for any month since January 2005. However, last month's sales still fell 22 percent short of the average July sales total since 1988, when MDA DataQuick's statistics begin, and were the second- lowest for a July since 1995.

Foreclosure resales -- homes sold in July that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months -- made up 33 percent of all resales. That was up from 29.9 percent in June and 4.2 percent in July 2007. Foreclosure resales ranged from 4.6 percent of the resale market in San Francisco to 65.9 percent in Solano County.

At the extremes, Santa Clara recorded a 13.1% year-over-year reduction in sales volume (a loss of 250 transactions) and a 16.4% decrease in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 30.3% increase in sales volume (a gain of 502 transactions) but a 41.6% drop in median sales price (think foreclosures).

UPDATE: While the numbers are above, it’s worth highlighting the impact of foreclosures on sales volume last month. Not counting the resale of foreclosed properties, sales volume in the Bay Area actually dropped 28.5% from 2007 to 2008 (versus the 2.2% increase referenced above). And in San Francisco, we estimate the increase in year-over-year recorded sales volume for non-foreclosure properties to be closer to 4% (versus the 8% referenced above).

∙ Bay Area home sales climb above last year; median price falls hard [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In June: Down 9.8% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (73) | (email story)

August 18, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 8/18/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 4.3% over the past two weeks (which is typical in the weeks leading up to Labor day) and is currently running 17% higher on a year-over-year basis.

Expect to see listed inventory continue to decline over the next two weeks and then spike in the first two weeks of September.

The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 8/05/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (53) | (email story)

August 15, 2008

San Francisco Landlord Foreclosures: Tenant PSA And Growing Trend

"State and local laws prohibit landlords from evicting tenants or shutting off utilities [due to a foreclosure], but not all renters are aware of the rules, and not all of the entities that take control of properties try to learn them."

"The issue was virtually unheard of a year ago. The San Francisco Tenants Union had to circulate a memo to its counselors earlier this year because few had ever encountered it before.

The exact number of tenants dealing with the aftermath of a landlord foreclosure is difficult to ascertain. Three tenants groups contacted by The Chronicle reported around 130 cases this year, but most counselors believe that many more tenants aren't contacting the organizations. What is known is that lenders foreclosed on 492 homes in San Francisco during the last year and a half, according to DataQuick Information Systems."

∙ Foreclosure's hidden victims [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (30) | (email story)

August 14, 2008

U.S. Home Resale Rate Falls To Ten Year Low (Again)

From Bloomberg last month:

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in June to the lowest level in a decade as tumbling real- estate prices and consumer confidence signal no end in sight to a housing recession now in its third year.

Resales dropped 2.6 percent to a lower-than-forecast 4.86 million annual rate from a 4.99 million pace the prior month, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median home price dropped 6.1 percent from June of last year.

From Bloomberg today:

Existing U.S. home sales fell to a 10-year low in the second quarter and the median price for a single-family house dropped 7.6 percent as the real estate recession deepened.

The median tumbled to $206,500 from $223,500 a year earlier, the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors said today. Sales of single-family houses and condominiums fell 16 percent to 4.913 million at an annualized pace.

In terms of those transactions, "foreclosures and 'short sales,' in which lenders agree to take a loss on a property, accounted for a third of all sales in the quarter."

And as they say, live by the median, die by the median (or something like that).

∙ U.S. Home Resale Rate Falls To Ten Year Low (And 33% Below 2005) [SocketSite]
∙ U.S. Home Sales Fall to 10-Year Low as Prices Tumble [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

JustQuotes: It's Time To Make Some Property Tax Lemonade

"San Francisco homeowners are flooding City Hall with so many requests to reduce their property values that the tax assessor said today his office may not be able to meet the demand. So far, Assessor-Recorder Phil Ting's office has received about 1,000 requests for informal reevaluations - three times the number filed last year. Friday is the deadline to request an informal property reevaluation from the assessor."

"Formal requests for reassessment must be filed by Sept. 15 and Ting said anyone who does not hear back from his office - or does not agree with their assessment - should file by that date."

∙ S.F. assessor overwhelmed with reevalution requests [SFGate]
∙ Assessing The Potential Upside Of A Down Market: Property Tax Basis [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

August 13, 2008

It's A Good Thing It's Simply A Subprime (And District 10) Problem...

"Yields on mortgage securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae rose this week to about their highest relative to Treasuries since March amid concern that defaults are spreading to prime and Alt-A mortgages from subprime loans.

Fannie's current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate bonds currently yield 6.07 percent, 213 basis points more than 10-year Treasuries, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's 25 basis points from the 22-year high of 238 reached March 6, a week before the Federal Reserve helped bail out Bear Stearns Cos.

The worst housing slump since the Great Depression has blotted out much of the wealth Americans accumulated in their homes, hurting their ability to pay bills and boosting spreads on auto-loan and credit-card backed bonds as well as mortgage securities. Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, last week slashed its dividend 86 percent after posting a worse-than-expected loss and said it will stop buying and guaranteeing Alt-A loans."

[Editor's Note: And no, this shouldn't catch any plugged-in people by surprise.]

∙ Agency Mortgage Bond Yield Spreads Widen as Loan Losses Expand [Bloomberg]
∙ Subprime And Alt-A Statistics By County: The Feds Mortgage Map [SocketSite]
∙ Fannie Follows Freddie (And Makes It Easy For The Copywriters) [SocketSite]
∙ Fannie Mae, Battling Losses, to End Alt-A Mortgages [Bloomberg]
∙ JustQuotes: Is The Subprime Sickness Spreading? [SocketSite 7/07]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (26) | (email story)

August 7, 2008

A Noe Valley/Glen Park Apple In The Making And Neighborhood Inquiry

Purchased for $1,150,000 in September of 2005, a sale of 254 30th Street at the current asking price ($1,250,000) would represent average annual appreciation of 2.9% over the past three years (assuming no improvements) for this single-family home on the border of Noe Valley and Glen Park.

And a related reader inquiry:

I'd love to see some SocketSite regulars weigh in with predictions for the selling prices for some of the single-family homes on the market in Noe Valley. There are a bunch right now priced in the sweet spot between $900K and $1.2 million, and they all have parking, nice little yards, and bonus rooms or bonus-room potential.

They aren't fixers, but they have all have some (or much) potential for improvement. Such as 4090 25th St ($1.09M), 1617 Church ($995K), 3888 26th ($1.15M), 1308 Diamond ($949K). Then there's 1143 Diamond, which is perhaps overpriced at $1.398M. There are others, these are just the ones I've visited.

Also mentioned in our reader's inquiry was 4339 26th Street which hit the market in April for $1,650,000, was reduced to $1,450,000, and has now been withdrawn.

∙ Listing: 254 30th Street (2/2) - $1,250,000 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (85) | (email story)

August 5, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 8/05/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 1.4% over the past two weeks (a typical end of July drop) but remains 27% higher on a year-over-year basis.

Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 7/16/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (44) | (email story)

August 4, 2008

Connecting The "Calling All Contractors" Dots (Starting In District 10)

From the listing for 190 Newton in District 10 (Crocker Amazon):

Seller has stopped work and is selling the property AS-IS. Warning - this property is not currently habitable. Permits and plans are available for Buyer inspection….Subject to lender approval of short sale….Money ran out in renovation.

From the listing for 139 Leese in District 9 (Bernal Heights):

Property in a state of complete disrepair….Not habitable at this point in time….Not for the faint of heart. This is rough. Subject to lender approval of short sale.

From the listing for 522 Chenery in District 5 (Glen Park):

[O]wner was in middle of remodel- no walls - down to studs- come take a look!

Can you connect the dots?

∙ Listing: 190 Newton - $399,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 139 Leese - $449,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 522 Chenery - $659,000 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

Chase/U.S. Bank Crack Down On Jumbos, Sterling Bumps TIC Rates

Citing a “dramatic reduction in Jumbo volume levels,” “lack of Capital Markets appetite for Jumbo products,” and “worse than expected delinquency performance on these loans,” Chase is suspending “Non-Agency Fixed and ARM (Amortizing and Interest-Only) Product offerings within [their] Wholesale Lending Business.

At the same time, U.S. Bank is moving to a minimum of 20% down for interest only jumbo purchases and a “minimum of $250,000 of assets/reserves seasoned for a minimum of 60 days” for those refinancing an interest only jumbo loan with a loan to value of greater than 80%.

And from a plugged-in reader:

The TIC lending market just tightened this week. The low cost TIC lender in this market, Sterling, just raised all TIC rates by [50bps] this week and increased financial requirements for borrowers...[Editor’s Note: While our reader typed 500bps (5%), we’re assuming 50bps (0.5%) is what was meant.]

A few more buyers just got kicked out of the housing pool. Now about all those Econ101 and supply and demand lectures…

∙ Chase Suspends Non-Conforming Mortgages [SocketSite]
∙ Twelve New Tenancies In Common At Twenty-Two Hundred Beach [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (57) | (email story)

August 1, 2008

JustQuotes (And A Chart): Consumer Confidence Continues To Decline

"The U.S. economic slowdown has shaken the confidence of even the most affluent Americans as losses spread from housing to financial assets, according to economists at Merrill Lynch & Co.

'We are already seeing the dominoes fall because the well-heeled consumer is now seeing confidence decline at a much faster rate than everyone else (who are already washed out),' writes David A. Rosenberg, North American economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, in a July 29 commentary on the Conference Board's consumer confidence index.

The [Bloomberg] chart of the day shows the rapid decline in the Conference Board's index for Americans with incomes greater than $50,000. The 12-month rate-of-change rivals the descent seen in the year prior to January 1991."

∙ Rosenberg Says `Well-Heeled' Join the Pain: Chart of the Day [Bloomberg]
∙ Bloomberg chart of the day: Consumer confidence, incomes over $50,000 [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

July 31, 2008

Have We Had Our "Cathartic Event" Or Are We Simply Late Bloomers?

The relatively good news for California:

Across the state, sales rose for three consecutive months starting in April after 30 straight months of declines, the California Association of Realtors said. About 40 percent of those transactions were foreclosure sales, DataQuick Information Systems reported. "California is having a wrenching decline in wealth, but this is a cathartic event that will lay the foundation for a recovery," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, in an interview. "This signals the beginning of the end.''

The not so great news:

Almost $1.3 trillion of homeowner equity was lost in California since home prices peaked in December 2005, Zandi said. Discounts of as much as 50 percent will extend into 2010, helping clear a glut of foreclosures and leading to a more balanced housing market, said Ryan Ratcliff, an economist at the Anderson Forecast at the University of California in Los Angeles, and Christopher Thornberg, principal of Beacon Economics LLC in Los Angeles.

And the question: considering sales volume in San Francisco has actually declined over the past two months, and the number of foreclosures within the city remains rather nominal (but is growing), have we had our "cathartic event" or are we going to be late bloomers?

∙ California's Discount Foreclosure Sales Point to Housing Bottom [Bloomberg]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In June: Down 9.8% YOY [SocketSite]
∙ One Antithetical Quote To The “Foreclosures Aren’t Comps” Argument [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

July 29, 2008

May S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Declines (But Rate Slows)

According to the May 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.2% from April ’08 to May ’08 (the slowest rate of decline in eight months) and are down 22.9% year-over-year (a record low).

For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 16.9% (having fallen 1.0% from April).

For the month of May, markets that experienced large gains in the recent real estate boom continue to be the biggest decliners. Miami and Las Vegas were the worst performers returning -3.6% and -2.9%, respectively. On a brighter note, Charlotte and Dallas have recorded three consecutive months of positive returns. These two markets are also showing the smallest annual declines, with Charlotte down 0.2% and Dallas down 3.1% versus May of 2007. From a longer-term perspective, since January 2000, the best performing markets are Washington, Los Angeles, New York and Miami.

Both prices and the rate of decline continued to fall across the lower two price tiers for the San Francisco MSA while the upper tier recorded a slight month-over-month gain for the first time in nine months.

The bottom third (under $461,780 at the time of acquisition) fell 3.6% from April to May (down 38.8% YOY); the middle third fell 0.6% from April to May (down 26.1% YOY); and the top third (over $716,171 at the time of acquisition) rose 0.9% from April to May (down 8.7% YOY).

And according to the Index, home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have returned to August 2002 levels, the middle third to January 2004 levels, and the top third continues to hold at March 2005 levels.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ Record Low Annual Declines Recorded in May 2008 [S&P]
∙ April S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Declines Across All Tiers [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (199) | (email story)

July 25, 2008

U.S. New Home Sales Rate Moderates As Builders Deal

Existing home sales yesterday, new home sales today:

New-home sales in the U.S. in June were higher than forecast and the number of properties on the market dropped by the most in four decades, indicating builders are making some headway in clearing out inventories.

Purchases decreased 0.6 percent to a 530,000 pace, from an upwardly revised 533,000 in May, the Commerce Department said today in Washington....Builders are offering more incentives and lower prices to attract buyers and help reduce a glut of unsold properties. Still, stricter lending rules and rising mortgage rates may prevent sales from rising much more in coming months.

And a paragraph that shouldn't catch any plugged-in person by surprise:

The median sales prices last month decreased 2 percent from June 2007 to $230,900. These figures can be influenced by changes in the mix of sales at the regional level. For that reason, economists prefer price measures that track the same home over time.

SocketSite too. Apple Jacks for breakfast anyone?

∙ New-Home Sales in the U.S. Fell 0.6% to 530,000 Pace in June [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. Home Resale Rate Falls To Ten Year Low (And 33% Below 2005) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

July 24, 2008

U.S. Home Resale Rate Falls To Ten Year Low (And 33% Below 2005)

As we wrote in June when many seemed to get overly excited about a two point uptick in May’s previously owned home sales results:

And looking forward rather than back, "The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of loan applications to purchase homes fell last week to the lowest level in more than five years."

And from Bloomberg today:

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in June to the lowest level in a decade as tumbling real- estate prices and consumer confidence signal no end in sight to a housing recession now in its third year.

Resales dropped 2.6 percent to a lower-than-forecast 4.86 million annual rate from a 4.99 million pace the prior month, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median home price dropped 6.1 percent from June of last year.

And regardless, the rate remains down 16% on a year-over-year basis (and down 33% versus the record breaking 2005).

∙ U.S. Economy: Sales of Existing Homes Decline to 10-Year Low [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. Home Resales Up But Remain Off (As Do Mortgage Applications) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

July 22, 2008

Actual Bay Area Foreclosures Up 314% (San Francisco Up 182%)

The good news, while Bay Area foreclosures (trustee deeds recorded) in the second quarter of 2008 were up over 314% on a year-over-year basis, actual foreclosures in San Francisco only increased 182% (up from 50 in Q2 2007 to 141 in 2008). Of course that’s the bad news as well.

In the Bay Area, the biggest increase in the rate of new foreclosures occurred in Santa Clara (up 511.8% from 255 to 1,560), while the biggest increase in volume occurred in Contra Costa (from 777 new foreclosures in Q2 2007 to 2,965 in 2008).

Statewide and in terms of new notice of default (NOD) activity (up 62.6% on a year-over-year basis in San Francisco): "Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between September 2005 and November 2006. The median age was 26 months, up from 16 months a year earlier."

In other words, the low lying foreclosure fruit has been picked and we’re now moving on to those who were better capitalized.

∙ Another Increase in California Foreclosure Activity [DQNews]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (49) | (email story)

July 17, 2008

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In June: Down 9.8% YOY

According to DataQuick, home sales volume in San Francisco fell 9.8% on a year-over-year basis last month (571 recorded sales in June ’08 versus 633 sales in June ‘07) and fell 3.7% compared to the month prior (See UPDATE below).

Keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

San Francisco's median sales price in June was $726,750, down 11.9% compared to June ’07 ($825,000), 8.0% compared to the month prior, and the lowest recorded median since March 2005. And yes, we're doing some digging on the effect of mix.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in June was down 9.9% on a year-over-year basis but increased 15.5% from the month prior (7,178 recorded sales in June '08 versus 7,964 in June ’07 and 6,216 in May '08). And the recorded median sales price fell 27.1% on a year-over-year basis (down 6.2% compared to the month prior and "the first time in more than four years that it was below the half-million mark").

At the extremes, Marin recorded a 35.4% year-over-year reduction in sales volume (a loss of 124 transactions) and a 12.0% decrease in median sales price, while Contra Costa recorded a 14.6% drop in sales volume (a loss of 207 transactions) and a 36.7% drop in median sales price.

UPDATE: In our words this morning, it "seems a little strange" that sales volume would have been absolutely flat from May to June. And lo and behold, DataQuick has since adjusted the number down from 593 to 571 sales in June.

∙ Bay Area median price dives below $500K; sales near record low [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In May: Down 3.7% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (167) | (email story)

July 16, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 7/16/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco remained relatively flat (down 0.3%) over the past two weeks and is currently running 27% higher on a year-over-year basis.

Once again, we still haven't seen a significant post Memorial Day bump in inventory but new listing activity has picked up while sales volume has slowed (how much simply due to the July 4th holiday weekend is yet to be seen). And as a measure of mismatched "expectations," while listing volume is up 27% year-over-year, the volume of Active listings which have undergone at least one price reduction is up 70%.

Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/30/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (35) | (email story)

July 9, 2008

One Antithetical Quote To The “Foreclosures Aren’t Comps” Argument

An anecdotal quote that runs somewhat antithetical to the “foreclosures aren’t comps” argument:

"Our experience is the bank has a number (the asking price); they will hold that for a while," [Re/Max Realtor-broker Joe Metz] said. "If they don't get that number for three or four weeks, they will lower the price a little more. Banks are very smart about how they do this. They move them very quickly and for about as much as anybody could get."

Granted, it's from an East Bay broker where foreclosure activity continues to be significantly more meaningful than in San Francisco, but the trend is up across the board.

Also up, the ratio of properties that receive a notice of default (NOD) that eventually become bank owned (REO). A sign of dropping values, not only financial duress.

∙ How to buy a foreclosed home [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

July 8, 2008

Alt-A Powerhouse IndyMac Takes A Step Closer To IndyDependance

As another plugged-in reader noted yesterday, IndyMac – second only to Countrywide in terms of indypendent U.S. mortgage lenders last year – has effectively stopped originating new home loans citing a “continued downward trend in home prices” (think losses and need to raise additional capital) and a lack of “stability and uncertainty” in the mortgage markets (think inability to raise said capital).

Keep in mind that IndyMac is the largest “Alt-A” – not subprime – lender in the land.

∙ Indymac Issues Stakeholder Letter [The IMB Report]
∙ JustQuotes: You Had Better Watch Your Fannie (As Well As Freddie) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (25) | (email story)

July 7, 2008

JustQuotes: You Had Better Watch Your Fannie (As Well As Freddie)

“Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae plunged in New York trading and their credit-default swaps rose as concerns grew the two largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies may need to raise more capital to overcome writedowns and satisfy new accounting rules.”

“As mortgage delinquencies grow at a record pace, the companies likely will take further losses, [Deutsche Bank credit strategist John Tierney] said. Banks repossessed twice as many homes in May as they did a year ago and foreclosure filings rose 48 percent, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a real estate database in Irvine, California. Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 15.3 percent in April by the most on record, S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index.”

"Spreads between 10-year Treasuries and bonds backed by Fannie Mae reached a 22-year high of 238 basis points on March 6. An increase boosts the cost of new mortgages for the most creditworthy consumers. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point."

∙ Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae Plunge on Capital Concerns [Bloomberg]
∙ Fannie Mae To Market: It’s Not Getting Better, But Rather Worse [SocketSite]
∙ April S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Declines Across All Tiers [SocketSite]
∙ Agency Mortgage-Bond Yield Spreads Rise on Potential Bank Sales [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

Foreclosure Activity In San Francisco As Mapped By Trulia: 7/07/08

Over the past five months the number of San Francisco properties in some stage of foreclosure as mapped by Trulia has increased from 409 to 782, and is up from 215 seven months ago.

And once again, while the majority of mapped properties remain in District 10 (and at this point have only received notices of default), as a plugged-in reader points out, “the shift to the southwest continues and is now pushing farther north as well.”

It’s an imperfect measure for sure (and for all we know better reporting could be playing a part in the increase), but it's not completely irrelevant.

∙ Foreclosure Activity In San Francisco As Mapped By Trulia: 2/07/08 [SocketSite]
∙ Current Foreclosure Activity In San Francisco As Mapped By Trulia [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (26) | (email story)

July 1, 2008

Listed Sales Activity In San Francisco: Down 25-30% In June (YOY)

As you know, San Francisco’s inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs is currently running 34% higher on a year-over-year basis. As you might not know, on a year-over-year basis sales activity of said homes is running 25-30% lower. From another plugged-in reader:

Total MLS sales for June stand at 381 (at this moment) with an overall median price of $799K. June 2007 had 545 sales at a median of $830K. Jun06 - 617 sales @ $799K, Jun05 - 656 sales @ $800K, Jun04 - 708 sales @ $717K.

The official sales count for June will increase as listings for end of the month transactions are updated (hence our 25-30% range), but the significant downward trend over the past four years will hold true (the rate of which has been increasing rather than decreasing).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/30/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (48) | (email story)

June 30, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/30/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco decreased 1.4% over the past two weeks and is currently running 34% higher on a year-over-year basis.

We still haven't seen a significant post Memorial Day bump in inventory and new listing volume is down on a year-over-year basis, but sales volume has started to slow as well. And perhaps as a measure of mismatched "expectations," thirty-three percent (33%) of current listings have undergone at least one price reduction versus twenty-six percent (26%) at the same time last year.

Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/16/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

June 26, 2008

U.S. Home Resales Up But Remain Off (As Do Mortgage Applications)

While previously owned U.S. home sales ticked up two points in May to an annualized rate of 4.99 million sales, on a year-over-year basis sales remain off by 16 percent, the median sales price dropped 6.3%, and the increase is compared to the month prior which “matched a record low for existing home sales.”

A drop in property values may have spurred demand in some of the most distressed areas, such as California and the Midwest. Even so, rising mortgage rates, a glut of unsold homes, and stricter borrowing rules indicate the real estate recession will persist for most of the year.

And looking forward rather than back, "The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of loan applications to purchase homes fell last week to the lowest level in more than five years."

∙ Home Resales in U.S. Rose to 4.99 Million Rate in May [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

June 24, 2008

OFHEO: California Leads U.S. House Price Declines (YOY) In Q1 2008

According to the OFHEO’s first quarter 2008 House Price Index (HPI), California registered the sharpest year-over-year depreciation (-10.6%) of any state; Merced, Stockton and Modesto registered the sharpest year-over-year depreciation of all MSAs (-24.7%, -21.5%, and -21.0% respectively); and the San Francisco MSAD registered year-over-year depreciation of 3.25% (accelerating from a 0.9% YOY drop in 2007).

Both OFHEO’s purchase-only index and its all-transactions index show much more muted price declines than do other house price indexes. “While house price declines are widespread, homes financed with prime, conforming mortgages continue to hold up better than those financed with other types of mortgages, a phenomenon we’ve been observing for the last several quarters,” [OFHEO Director James Lockhart] said.

For those who are unfamiliar, the OFHEO House Price Index (HPI) is based on data from repeat single-family home sales or refinancings that involve conforming mortgages. Data from transactions involving either condominiums or non-conforming loans (two major components of the San Francisco market) are excluded from the Index.

∙ Decline In House Prices Accelerates In First Quarter [OFHEO]
∙ Are We Detached From More Than Simply The Fundamentals? [SocketSite]
∙ April S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Declines Across All Tiers [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

April S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Declines Across All Tiers

According to the April 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 2.2% from March ’08 to April ’08 and are down 22.1% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 16.3% (having fallen 1.6% from March).

Las Vegas and Miami continue to share the dubious distinction of being the weakest markets over the past 12 months returning -26.8% and -26.7% respectively. These two markets witnessed some of the fastest growth in the 2004/2005 periods, with annual growth rates peaking above +53% and +32% respectively.

Prices fell across all three price tiers for the San Francisco MSA with the rate of decline slowing slightly at the bottom end and increasing slightly at the top.

The bottom third (under $473,711 at the time of acquisition) fell 4.7% from March to April (down 37.2% YOY); the middle third fell 2.3% from March to April (down 25.7% YOY); and the top third (over $721,548 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.2% from March to April (down 9.2% YOY).

And according to the Index, home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have returned to February 2003 levels, the middle third to February 2004 levels, and the top third continues to hold at March 2005 levels.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ Steep Declines in Home Prices Continued in April 2008 [S&P]
∙ March S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Declines, Top Tier Flat [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (64) | (email story)

June 20, 2008

California Unemployment: We’re Still The Best (But The Bloom Is Off)

The unemployment rate in California jumped 0.6 perentage point in May to 6.8%, "the largest one-month increase since the state began keeping records in 1976." The San Fransciso MSA, however, remains a relative - but not necessarily absolute - stalwart.

In the San Francisco metropolitan area, which includes Marin and San Mateo counties, unemployment was 4.6 percent in May, up from 4.2 percent the month before. In the San Jose area, the rate rose to 5.6 percent from 5.2 percent. And in the Oakland area, including Contra Costa and Alameda counties, unemployment was 5.7 percent, up from 5.3 percent.

"The Bay Area still is the best part of the California economy," said Howard Roth, principal economist for the California Finance Department. "But the bloom is off the rose."

∙ State records biggest jump in unemployment in May [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

June 18, 2008

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In May: Down 3.7% YOY

According to DataQuick, home sales volume in San Francisco fell 3.7% on a year-over-year basis last month (593 recorded sales in May ’08 versus 616 sales in May ‘07) and fell 2.0% compared to the month prior.

Keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

San Francisco's median sales price in May was $790,000, down 5.4% compared to May ’07 ($835,000) but up 5.3% compared to the month prior. And yes, we continue to see mix supporting the median in San Francisco proper.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in May was down 23.1% on a year-over-year basis (the slowest May in at least twenty years) and fell 1.5% from the month prior (6,216 recorded sales in May '08 versus 8,080 in May ’07 and 6,310 in April '08). And the recorded median sales price fell 21.7% on a year-over-year basis (down 0.2% compared to the month prior).

At the extremes, Marin recorded a 37.0% year-over-year reduction in sales volume (a loss of 133 transactions) but a 5.8% increase in median sales price (the only Bay Area county to record an increase), while Contra Costa recorded a 11.7% drop in sales volume (a loss of 160 transactions) and a 33.8% drop in median sales price.

∙ Bay Area home sales return to record low in May [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In April: Up 6.5% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (30) | (email story)

June 16, 2008

Homebuilder Confidence Falls: From The Fringes To San Francisco?

A plugged-in reader reports (and posits):

I was on a conference call today with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) CEO Jerry Howard and Chief Economist David Seiders where they were presenting the June Housing Market Index (HMI).

It was pretty bad. They were basically pleading with all news organizations and others to put pressure on the federal government to bail out the housing meltdown.

Jerry even went so far as to say that it is effecting senior citizens and it is just not right that they are losing their equity.

The NAHB reported that the index is at an all time record low of 18. Down from 19 in May. (a rating of 50 is neutral, greater than 50 means a majority of positive responses. less than 50 means a majority of negative)

David did say that he expects further declines since the current index does not reflect the recent rise in interest rates.

I really wish I could describe in words the sense of desperation that came from the call.

It seems easy to look at particular neighborhoods and say that a major downturn is not coming but I would have to agree with those whom have studied bubble and mass movement mentality. The drastic movement starts at the fringes and moves in over time.

Stockton -> Contra Costa -> Specific Districts in SF -> Top of Russian Hill

If we look back in 5 years I will be very surprised if those prime districts have not followed suit.

∙ Homebuilder Confidence Index Unexpectedly Fell to 18 [Bloomberg]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/16/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (34) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/16/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco slightly decreased (0.7%) over the past two weeks and is currently running 30% higher on a year-over-year basis.

A typical post Memorial Day bump in inventory has yet to materialize as on a year-over-year basis new listing volume is down, and in addition, sales volume is up.

Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/2/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (84) | (email story)

June 12, 2008

The One To Watch With Respect To Most Mortgage Rates Ticks Up

“Treasuries fell, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to the highest level this year, after a larger-than-expected gain in retail sales bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve to boost interest rates....Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show odds of 22 percent the Fed will raise the target rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter-percentage point to 2.25 percent at its June 25 meeting. The probability of an increase by year-end is 100 percent.”

[Editor’s Note: In case it wasn’t clear, it's the 10-year Treasury that's the one to watch.]

∙ Treasury 10-Year Note Yields Rise to Year High on Retail Sales [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

June 9, 2008

Seasonality, Surprises, And Avoiding Looking Like A Schmuck

“The index of [U.S.] pending home resales rose 6.3 percent to 88.2, the highest level in six months, following a 1 percent drop in March, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. [A Bloomberg poll projected the index would fall 0.4 percent.]

The drop in property values may be starting to lure some buyers who are able to qualify for loans, signaling purchases will improve in 2009. Still, stricter lending rules, the recent increase in mortgage rates and continued pressure on prices from mounting foreclosures will probably keep some buyers away for much of the year.”

“’What people are most scared of is looking like a schmuck,’ Toll Brothers Holdings Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said at a conference in New York last week. ‘What do I want to buy a home for and next year be looking at 10 percent less asset?’”

∙ Pending Home Resales in U.S. Unexpectedly Increased [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

June 5, 2008

U.S. Foreclosure Activity Continues To Climb Rather Than Fall

“New foreclosures rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.99 percent of all U.S. home loans, up from 0.83 percent in the fourth quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report today. The total inventory of homes in foreclosure increased to 2.47 percent and the delinquency rate, loans with one or more payments overdue, grew to 6.35 percent. All were the highest since 1979, the Washington-based trade group said.”

“Prime adjustable-rate mortgages in California, the largest U.S. state, accounted for 36 percent of all U.S. foreclosures started during the period. The state's subprime adjustable loans were 26 percent of the national total.”

∙ U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies, Foreclosures Rise to 29-Year High [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (33) | (email story)

June 4, 2008

The Early MLS Count For May: Listed Sales Down 18% Year-Over-Year

According to a plugged-in reader the early count for listed sales volume of single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco last month is currently running 18% under that of May 2007 (29% under May 2004). Expect a slight bump for late reportings.

Keep in mind that listed sales volume was down 13% on a year-over-year basis the month prior (April) while recorded sales volume was up 6.5% (think new construction closings). And listed inventory is currently up 45% year-over-year.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/2/08 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In April: Up 6.5% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (27) | (email story)

June 2, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 6/2/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased slightly (1%) over the past two weeks and is currently running 45% higher on a year-over-year basis. Housing inventory typically declines over the last couple of weeks of May but once again starts to build in June as the school year ends and the summer selling season starts in earnest.

Thirty percent of Active listings have experienced at least one price adjustment versus twenty-three percent at the same time last year.

Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 5/12/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (37) | (email story)

May 27, 2008

March S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Declines, Top Tier Flat

According to the March 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf) , single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 3.5% from February '08 to March ’08 and are down 20.2% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 15.3% (having fallen 2.2% from February).

The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – reached well into double digits, recording a 14.1% decline in the 1st quarter of 2008 versus the 1st quarter of 2007, the largest in the series 20-year history. As a comparison, during the 1990-91 housing recession the annual rate bottomed at -2.8%. The 10-City and 20-City Composites also set new records, with annual declines of -15.3% and -14.4%, respectively.

Prices fell across the bottom two price tiers for the San Francisco MSA, while the top tier remained unchanged on a month-over-month basis but declined 2.0% year-over-year.

The bottom third (under $489,431 at the time of acquisition) fell 5.3% from February to March (down 34.7% YOY); the middle third fell 4.5% from February to March (down 23.9% YOY); and the top third (over $734,115 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.04% from February to March (down 8.0% YOY).

And according to the Index, home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have returned to June 2003 levels, the middle third to March 2004 levels, and the top third is holding at March 2005 levels.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ National Trend of Home Price Declines Continued into the First Quarter of 2008 [S&P]
∙ February S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Decline Accelerates [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (114) | (email story)

May 20, 2008

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In April: Up 6.5% YOY

According to DataQuick, home sales volume in San Francisco climbed 6.5% on a year-over-year basis last month (605 recorded sales in April ’08 versus 568 sales in April ‘07) and increased 19.1% compared to the month prior (in part due to seasonaility, but also a significantly stronger gain than compared to the past couple of years).

That being said, do keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

The median sales price in April was $750,000, down 5.1% compared to April ’07 ($790,000) and down 0.7% compared to the month prior. We continue to see mix supporting the median in San Francisco proper.

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in April was down 15.3% on a year-over-year basis but increased 28.8% from the month prior (6,310 recorded sales in April '08 versus 7,447 in April ’07 and 4,898 in March '08). And the recorded median sales price fell 21.4% on a year-over-year basis (down 3.4% compared to the month prior).

Foreclosure property resales accounted for 25.7 percent of last month's Bay Area market. The percentage is higher in outlying areas that absorbed spillover activity during the frenzy. While foreclosure properties were 5.9 percent of San Francisco's resale market and 8.9 percent of Marin's resale market last month, they were 44.7 percent in Contra Costa and 54.2 percent in Solano.

At the extremes, Marin recorded a 31.0% year-over-year reduction in sales volume (a loss of 97 transactions) and a 13.5% drop in median sales price, Santa Clara recorded a 28.3% reduction in sales volume (a loss of 569 transactions) and a 13.3% drop in median sales price, and Contra Costa recorded a 1.5% increase in sales volume (a gain of 19 transactions) and a 34.2% drop in median sales price.

CORRECTION: “Foreclosure resales” had previously been misidentified as “sales back to the bank.” For the purposes of the DataQuick sales report “foreclosure resales” only includes the sales of properties which had previously been recorded as foreclosures within the past twelve months.

∙ Bay Area home sales edge up in April [DataQuick]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In March: Down 20.6% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (55) | (email story)

First Republic Prestige Home Index For “San Francisco” Falls (Again)

According to the First Republic Prestige Home Index for “San Francisco,” values for properties worth at least $1 million fell for the second straight quarter (down 0.8% from Q4 ’07) but remain up 2.9% on a year-over-year basis.

Keep in mind, however, that the Prestige Home Index for “San Francisco” includes eight Bay Area counties. And in a nod to a microcosm of mix (which shouldn’t affect the Index, but will affect the median sales price): “The higher end of the luxury market is the most active."

∙ Prestige Home Index: San Francisco [First Republic]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

May 16, 2008

Washington Mutual Goes With The Flow To Tighten HELOC Lending

Three months ago we let you know it was coming. Last week Wells Fargo made the move (tightening local lending standards for HELOCs). And according to the San Francisco Business Times, Washington Mutual appears to be following suit:

Washington Mutual Inc. has slashed or suspended $6 billion in available home equity credit to its customers in an effort to reduce its risk in a flailing housing market.

If they haven't already been notified, WaMu's customers across the country will learn of the change to their credit availability in a letter mailed to them in the next several days. The bank declined to disclose how many customers will be affected.

If a borrower's home has depreciated -- regardless of credit history -- the line of credit will likely be reduced because the equity has fallen.

That last sentence seems like common sense (although that hasn’t necessarily been a prerequisite for lending over the past five years), and unfortunately we don’t have any additional details. If any plugged-in readers should happen to receive one of said letters, please feel free to pass it along (tips@socketite.com). You know we'd do the same for you.

∙ When Hell HELOCs Freeze Over... [SocketSite]
∙ Wells Fargo Tightens Local Lending Standards For HELOCs [SocketSite]
∙ WaMu reduces home equity credit to homeowners [Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

May 15, 2008

You Like It In San Francisco. You Really, Really Do! (Then Again...)

“Thousands of new technology industry and other professional jobs and a burst of new housing construction attracted more new residents to San Francisco in 2007 than in any year in nearly a decade and drove the city's population to a new high of more than 824,000.” (New jobs, houses spur S.F. population in 2007)

UPDATE: A plugged-in reader’s comment worth highlighting (and considering): “[T]hose of you who didn't notice that this "study" had SF area GAINING population -- by 18,000! -- from the peak of the dot com boom to the bust, shame on you. We all lived through that and know it didn't happen, and San Mateo got hit just as hard and Marin certainly didn't make up the difference. Why on earth you think the more recent population "gains" this study is reporting are any more realistic is just beyond me. 100,000 jobs get lost but SF gains population? Please."

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (170) | (email story)

May 14, 2008

Subprime And Alt-A Statistics By County: The Feds Mortgage Map

Well, while a plugged-in tipster directed us to the site last week (cheers), another plugged-in reader steals a bit of our thunder and forces a pre-analysis publication by pointing it out this afternoon (yes, cheers as well). It’s the Federal Reserve's "Dynamic Maps of Nonprime Mortgage Conditions in the United States.”

Our thoughts will now have to follow (hopefully later this week), but a couple of hints as to what to see: December to January changes; San Francisco versus Contra Costa; and Subprime versus Alt-A. Remember, San Francisco is more an Alt-A than Subprime town.

∙ Dynamic Maps of Nonprime Mortgage Conditions in the United States [New York Fed]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

Foreclosure "Activity" Dips Slightly In California (But Foreclosures Up)

According to RealtyTrac, while foreclosure activity across the U.S. increased 4 percent from March to April (and is up almost 65 percent on a year-over-year basis), activity decreased slightly in both Nevada (home to the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate) and California (which sports the nation’s second highest foreclosure rate) on a month-over month basis.

Despite a 5 percent month-over-month decrease in foreclosure activity in April, Nevada continued to document the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate. One in every 146 Nevada households received a foreclosure filing in April, 3.6 times the national average, and the state’s foreclosure activity was up 95 percent from April 2007.

California posted the second highest state foreclosure rate in April, with one in every 204 households receiving a foreclosure filing during the month. Foreclosure filings were reported on 64,683 California properties in April, down [0.04] percent from the previous month but still the most of any state and an increase of 112 percent from April 2007.

That being said, the number of homes that were actually foreclosed upon (versus foreclosure "activity") increased 11% in California from March (14,025) to April (15,567).

And six California cities ranked in the top 10 (in terms of foreclosure rates) among the 230 metropolitan areas tracked by RealtyTrac: Merced (#1), Stockton (#2), Modesto (#3), Riverside-San Bernardino (#4), Vallejo-Fairfield (#6) and Bakersfield (#8).

∙ Foreclosure Activity Increases 4 Percent In April [RealtyTrac]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (35) | (email story)

May 13, 2008

While Libor Heads Up, Jumbo-Conforming Rates Head Down

While Libor has been heading up amid complaints "that financial institutions weren't telling the truth about their funding costs after rising mortgage defaults contaminated credit markets and drove up borrowing costs," jumbo-conforming rates have been heading down following Fannie Mae's decision to raise their purchase price for the loans last Tuesday.

From Julian Hebron at RPM:

The [jumbo-conforming] rate drop [of about 0.5% over the past week] is good news, but approval guidelines for these loans are strict. Borrowers must have at least 10% equity, or at least 15% equity if their property is a designated declining market—even San Francisco and Marin Counties are on many lenders’ declining lists. Cash-out loans require 25% equity, and cash-out is limited to $100k. Loans require full documentation, 1-unit properties only (condos ok), debt-to-income ratios of 45% or lower, and 700 minimum credit scores.

Fannie Mae has said they may announce less stringent guidelines as soon as this week, but all lenders can overlay their own risk-control guidelines and rate premiums beyond what Fannie Mae (or Freddie Mac) may require.

With the rate drop, jumbo-conforming mortgages are now being offered for around 6.25%. That’s a 0.625% (62.5 bps) discount to jumbo rates (6.875%) and only a 0.25% (25 bps) premium over conforming (6.0%).

∙ Libor Set for Overhaul as Credibility Is Doubted [Bloomberg]
∙ If Lowering Rates Isn’t Working, Perhaps Increasing Limits Will [SocketSite]
∙ Mortgage Rate/Spread Update: Are You Feeling Stimulated Yet? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

May 12, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 5/12/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 3% over the past two weeks (37% higher on a year-over-year basis) while listed sales volume appears to have slightly slipped. Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor do they include multi-family listings (unless the units are individually listed).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 4/28/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (31) | (email story)

May 9, 2008

Wells Fargo Tightens Local Lending Standards For HELOCs

Three months ago we alerted you to a trend in lending to tighten up on Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), so please don’t let us hear that any plugged-in readers have been caught unprepared or by surprise.

The latest local news: Wells Fargo has “lowered the maximum loan-to-value to 75 percent from 80 percent on mortgages involving an equity line of credit for houses in Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties.”

∙ When Hell HELOCs Freeze Over... [SocketSite]
∙ Wells tightens standards for home equity lines [Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

May 5, 2008

Mortgage Rate/Spread Update: Are You Feeling Stimulated Yet?

According to Julian Hebron at RPM, local 30-year jumbo-conforming mortgages are currently being offered for around 6.625%. That’s a 0.25% (25 bps) discount to jumbo rates (6.875%) but a 0.625% (62.5 bps) premium over conforming (6.0%).

∙ If Lowering Rates Isn’t Working, Perhaps Increasing Limits Will [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

April 29, 2008

Perspective On California Foreclosures And The Current Housing Cycle

Get over the source of the graph (Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking) and the fact that the epicenter of foreclosure activity is centered down south (at least currently), it’s still relevant perspective regarding this housing cycle (and at some level will most likely matter to you).

And while foreclosures did only account for 5% of all resales in San Francisco County (not MSA) last quarter versus 33% Statewide, do keep in mind that’s two points higher than what was recorded Statewide in the first quarter of 2007 (3%).

∙ CA Foreclosures 2008 Q1 [Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking]
∙ California home foreclosures hit a record [Los Angeles Times]
∙ Yes, The Greater California Housing Market Does Matter To You [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

February S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Decline Accelerates

According to the February 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 5.0% from January '08 to February ’08 and are down 17.2% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 13.6% (having fallen 2.8% from January).

For the month of February, markets in the West were the biggest decliners. San Francisco [-5.0%], Las Vegas [-4.8%], and Los Angeles [-4.3%] were the worst performers. Each had a negative return in excess of 4%. Charlotte remains the only market that has a positive return over the past 12 months, but it too has seen negative returns in each of the last six months and is in the midst of growth deceleration.

Prices fell across all three price tiers for the San Francisco MSA with the rate of decline accelerating across the board.

The bottom third (under $513,218 at the time of acquisition) fell 5.9% from January to February (down 32.0% YOY); the middle third fell 5.9% from January to February (down 20.6% YOY); and the top third (over $756,420 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.5% from January to February (down 6.0% YOY).

And according to the Index, home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have returned to December 2003 levels, the middle third to May 2004 levels, and the top third to March 2005 levels.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA).

UPDATE: Back by popular demand, the San Francisco price tiers plotted logarithmically:

∙ Steep Declines in Home Prices Continued in February 2008 [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ January S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues Decline [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (113) | (email story)

April 28, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 4/28/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 5% over the past two weeks and is currently running 36% higher on a year-over-year basis. Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor do they include multi-family listings (unless the units are individually listed).

And once again, while recorded sales activity was off by a little over 20% last month (on a year-over-year basis), listed sales activity was off by over 30%.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 4/14/08 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In March: Down 20.6% YOY [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (55) | (email story)

April 24, 2008

U.S. New-Home Sales Slide Plunge To Near Seventeen Year Low

“Purchases of new homes in the U.S. plunged more than forecast in March to the lowest level in almost 17 years as stricter loan rules and falling prices caused buyers to hold off. Sales dropped 8.5 percent to an annual pace of 526,000, the fewest since October 1991, from a 575,000 rate the prior month....”

∙ New-Home Sales in the U.S. Plunge More Than Forecast [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. Existing-Home Sales Slide (This Time Despite The Seasonality) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (44) | (email story)

April 22, 2008

AIG United Guaranty Cuts Condominium Coverage In…San Francisco

As both tipsters and readers alike have noted, as of next month a major private mortgage insurer will no longer write coverage for condominiums in “declining” markets. And as far as AIG United Guaranty is concerned, that includes San Francisco. Yes, proper.

[S]tarting May 1, AIG United Guaranty…no longer will write coverage on condominiums in hundreds of ZIP codes across the country that it designates as having "declining" market conditions. The ban is irrespective of applicants' credit scores, assets or equity stakes. Even in the healthiest real estate markets, United Guaranty will require buyers to put at least a 10 percent down payment into the deal, and will reject applications on units in condo projects where more than 30 percent of the owners are investors.

Of course AIG is but one insurer. And over the past seven years or so an increasing number of condo buyers turned to piggyback mortgages to avoid PMI altogether. But with ever tightening lending standards, and increasing rates for second mortgages, we just might see a resurgence in use throughout San Francisco. Then again, if other insurers follow suit, perhaps not.

∙ Condo-loan restrictions tightening [Baltimore Sun]
∙ AIG United Guaranty’s Declining Markets List (pdf) [ugcorp.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (37) | (email story)

U.S. Existing-Home Sales Slide (This Time Despite The Seasonality)

The pace of U.S. existing-home sales fell in March to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.93 million units. That’s down 2.0 percent from the month prior and down 19.3% from the pace of a year prior. Median sales price is down 7.7% (YOY).

Huh. So much for that February “recovery.” And perhaps that wacky housing market is somewhat seasonal after all. Who knew.

∙ Existing-Home Sales Slip in March [NAR]
∙ The Good And The Bad (But Not Necessarily The Ugly) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (27) | (email story)

April 17, 2008

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In March: Down 20.6% YOY

According to DataQuick, home sales volume in San Francisco dropped 20.6% on a year-over-year basis last month (508 recorded sales in March ’08 versus 640 sales in March ‘07). And while sales volume increased 17.9% compared to the month prior (think seasonaility), in 2004 sales volume in San Francisco jumped 39.4% from February to March, in 2005 it jumped 38.9%, in 2006 it jumped 47.1%, and in 2007 it jumped 70.7%.

As we pointed out last month, however, it’s important to understand that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded). Early reports of sales activity for listed properties in San Francisco would suggest a closer to 30% year-over-year decline for existing property sales.

The median sales price in March was $755,000, up a negligible 0.3% compared to March ’07 ($752,800) and up 2.6% compared to the month prior. That being said, we continue to see mix playing a significant role in supporting the median sales price in San Francisco.

For the greater Bay Area, sales volume in March was down 41.1% on a year-over-year basis but increased 22.8% from the month prior (4,898 recorded sales in March '08 versus 8,317 in March ’07 and 3,989 this past February). And the recorded median sales price fell 16.1% on a year-over-year basis (down 2.2% compared to the month prior).

At the extremes, Marin recorded a 48.8% year-over-year reduction in sales volume (a loss of 141 transactions) and a 4.4% drop in median sales price; Alameda recorded a 47.2% year-over-year reduction in sales volume (a loss of 869 transactions) and an 18.5% drop in median sales price; Santa Clara recorded a 46.2% reduction in sales volume (a loss of 947 transactions) and a 9.2% drop in median sales price; and Contra Costa recorded a 32.6% reduction in sales volume (a loss of 470 transactions) and a 26.9% drop in median sales price.

∙ Bay Area home sales remain at two-decade low [DataQuick]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In February: Up (14.9% YOY) [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 4/14/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (79) | (email story)

April 15, 2008

Foreclosure Filings Continue To Rise Across The Nation And California

According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings in the U.S. were up “nearly 57 percent” on a year-over-year basis in March. At the same time, bank repossessions were up “nearly 129 percent, but auction notices were up only 32 percent, indicating that more defaulting homeowners are simply walking away and deeding their properties back to the foreclosing lender.”

Foreclosure activity in California more than doubled over the past year (up 21% from February alone). And we led the nation in total number of filings (64,711 affected properties) for the 15th consecutive month. At one in every 204 households, the foreclosure filing rate in California is currently second only to Nevada (one in every 139).

∙ Foreclosure Activity Increases 5 Percent In March [RealtyTrac]
∙ JustQuotes: Fannie Raises A Red Flag With Regard To Foreclosures? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

Islands Of Immunity Or Simply The Last To Catch The Contagion?

We don’t necessarily disagree with the overall sentiment: a growing number of recent Bay Area homebuyers are accumulating negative equity on their “investment.” But using Zillow for an accurate analysis? That’s a different matter altogether.

That being said, keep in mind that the Chronicle’s graphic represents the percentage of homes purchased in 2006 (versus the percentage of all homes) which are considered to be worth less today (once again, according to Zillow).

And the real question for San Francisco becomes, how - and how quickly - will those colors bleed? And of course, how long before they fade?

∙ Homeowners get that drowning feeling [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (44) | (email story)

April 14, 2008

Another Admittedly Incomplete Update For A Few Featured Properties

While 1230 Sacramento, 73 Miguel, 545 Sanchez, and 1944-48 Buchanan all entered into (or firmed up) escrow over the past couple of days (last listed at $7,500,000, $2,875,000, $1,795,000 and $1,695,000 respectively), and 2311 Scott St #1 quickly closed escrow last week for $2,170,000 ($175,000 over asking), today the list price on 1150 Folsom #1 was reduced another $30,000.

At $795,000, 1150 Folsom #1 is now listed for $34,000 less than its sale price in October of 2005. Nope, no mix skewing that San Francisco Median Sales Price in this market.

∙ We’re Big Fans Of This Beaux-Arts Beauty (1230 Sacramento) [SocketSite]
∙ The Backside, View, And Rather Big "Right Pricing" Up On Miguel [SocketSite]
∙ Details, Details, Details On An 1880’s San Francisco Stick Victorian [SocketSite]
∙ A “Bitter” Renter Reports: Repossessed In Lower Pacific Heights [SocketSite]
∙ Through And Through And Throughout On A Sunny Saturday Morning [SocketSite]
∙ A Folsom Rausch Lofts Short Sale (Assuming 3.3% Appreciation) [SocketSite]
∙ An Admittedly Incomplete Update For A Few Featured Properties [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 4/14/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 3% over the past two weeks and is currently running 37% higher on a year-over-year basis. Our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor do they include multi-family listings (unless the units are individually listed).

With regard to any months of inventory calculations, keep in mind that while recorded sales activity in San Francisco was up almost 15% on a year-over-year basis in February according to DataQuick, this activity includes newly recorded closings in developments such as Infinity and One Rincon Hill (inventories for which are not included above and contracts for which were signed up to two years prior).

According to the San Francisco Association of Realtors, sales of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco were down 16% on a year-over-year basis in February with condos/TICs off by 27% and single-family homes off by a relatively modest 6%. And according to a plugged-in reader, early results for March indicate listed sales volume in San Francisco was down over 30% on a year-over-year basis with months of inventory running at well over two-times the level of twelve months prior.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 3/31/08 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In February: Up (14.9% YOY) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (47) | (email story)

April 11, 2008

PMI’s Market Risk Index And Real Estate Trends Report: Spring 2008

According to the latest PMI Market Risk Index, The San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City MSAD ended the fourth quarter of 2007 with a 30.2% likelihood of house price declines over the next two years. And while that’s up from 24.6% in the third quarter of 2007, that’s also down from 39.5% at the beginning of 2005.

The likelihood of decline for a few other nearby areas: Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville (77.7%), Oakland-Fremont-Hayward (63.8%), San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara (51.1%).

And for perspective, the Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall MSAD weighs in with a 61% likelihood of decline (roughly twice that of San Francisco, but less than Oakland), while the New York-White Plains-Wayne MSAD weighs in at 7%.

UPDATE: As a number of plugged-in readers have noted, the PMI Market Risk Index is tied to the OFHEO house price index which “excludes jumbo loans and the large portion of subprime and Alt-A loans that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don’t participate in.”

· Economic And Real Estate Trends: Spring 2008 (pdf) [PMI]
· Economic And Real Estate Trends: Spring 2005 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (27) | (email story)

April 10, 2008

It's A Good Thing San Francisco's Fortunes Aren't Tied To The Valley

"Housing prices in Silicon Valley remain defiantly high. New BMWs and Saabs cruise Highway 101. But for the first time there are signs that the current economic downturn is taking its toll on the country’s cradle of technology and innovation.

Job growth has slowed, start-up companies are hiring and spending more cautiously, and early-stage investors who nurture the start-ups with money and expertise are growing more frugal."

∙ Economy Has Become a Drag on Silicon Valley [New York Times]
∙ And What Happened Seven And One Half Years Ago In San Francisco? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (41) | (email story)

April 8, 2008

JustQuotes: U.S. Pending Home Resale Index Hits Seven Year Low

“The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes declined more than forecast in February, indicating no sign of a bottom in the U.S. real-estate recession that is entering its third year.

The National Association of Realtors' index of signed purchase agreements decreased 1.9 percent to 84.6, the lowest reading since records began in 2001, the group said today. The drop follows a revised 0.3 percent increase in January.”

“Pending resales dropped in three of four regions, led by a 9.8 percent decline in the West. Purchases fell 5.5 percent in the South and 3.7 percent in the Midwest. Pending sales increased 3.2 percent in the Northeast.”

∙ U.S. Economy: Pending Home Resales Fell More Than Forecast [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (48) | (email story)

April 7, 2008

Forget About Foreshadowing, We Served Up the Forewarning

Two months ago we let you know to be prepared. Others are now learning the harder way.

[Brent Meyers] owns a substantial investment portfolio and a million-dollar house in Moraga. He pays his bills on time and has no credit card debt. His credit score, he says, is around 800, a rating more or less in the stratosphere. But in mid-March, Bank of America cut off his home equity credit line of a little more than $180,000, citing a decline in the value of his property.

∙ When Hell HELOCs Freeze Over... [SocketSite]
∙ Lenders retreat as housing market plummets [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

April 4, 2008

Silicon Valley Hiring Slowdown: Meaningful Or Meaningless?

"Hiring in Silicon Valley was strong during much of 2007 but lost momentum toward the end of the year, a slight slowdown that has continued into 2008, local experts on technology employment say.

"Last year was great," said Patti Wilson, principal of CareerCompany.com, a Silicon Valley job consulting firm. "Companies were hiring and they were competing with each other for top technology talent."

This year though, hiring has dropped off and some companies are laying off workers, she noted.”

∙ Tech companies still hiring, but pace slowing [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

March 31, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 3/31/08

The inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased slightly (1%) over the past two weeks and is currently running 43% higher on a year-over-year basis. And the percentage of Active listings that have been reduced at least once has increased from 21% to 29% (195 versus 384) on a year-over-year basis as well.

Keep in mind that our listed inventory counts do not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor do they include multi-family listings (unless the units are individually listed). And once again, reports of decreasing inventories in San Francisco proper are either incorrect or possibly refer to a decrease from the levels of last October which would not reflect the market’s seasonality.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 3/17/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (49) | (email story)

March 27, 2008

Are We Detached From More Than Simply The Fundamentals?

An interesting chart of California MSA home price appreciation as measured by the OFHEO*, put together by the Public Policy Institute of California (pdf), and by way of a plugged-in tipster. And an important observation which shouldn’t catch any plugged-in readers by surprise:

While California’s previous housing crisis (southern California in the early and mid‐1990s) was part of a broader economic slowdown, the relationship between housing and economic conditions today is less clear‐cut. In 2007, employment in Merced and Stockton grew more than 2%, despite crashing housing prices, whereas employment grew only 0.6% in California overall and even fell in Los Angeles, Orange County, Ventura County, and Riverside-San Bernardino – where home prices are holding up better than in the Central Valley.

*Note: For those who are unfamiliar, the OFHEO Home Price Index (HPI) is based on data from repeat single-family home sales, or refinancings, that involve conforming mortgages. Data from transactions involving either condominiums or non-conforming loans (two major components of the San Francisco market) are excluded from the Index.

∙ The California Economy: Crisis In The Housing Market (pdf) [ppic.org]
∙ OFHEO: U.S. House Prices Don't Fall (But Do In CA And The SF MSA) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (60) | (email story)

March 26, 2008

Going Once, Going Twice...“Sold” For $700,000 (41 Federal #42)

With around sixty people in the room, but only a few active bidders, the high bid at today’s auction for 41 Federal #42 was $700,000 (and apparently it wasn’t “outbid”). As a plugged-in ex SF-er correctly surmised, however, the bank now has seven days to decide whether or not to accept the bid (which we’d be surprised if they didn’t).

A recorded sale at $700,000 would represent a drop of $180,000 (20.5%) from the original purchase price in December of 2006, and would also establish a new building “comp” at $760 per square foot.

That being said, keep in mind that the unit looked like it had never been occupied, and the reported sale price of $880,000 in 2006 was $5,000 over the original list price of $875,000 which had subsequently been reduced down to $825,000 prior to going into contract (i.e., something’s not quite right with respect to the original sale).

And tip of the hat to ex SF-er ("I think this sells for $700k+ or not at all"), Lance ("$685K"), and Nicole ("$679,000") who were all on record with their pre-auction predictions and within 3% of the highest bid (as well as to FSBO for filling in a few holes with respect to #42's official MLS history).

∙ Going Once, Going Twice (For Real?*) At Shore|Line: 41 Federal #42 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (39) | (email story)

No Real Signs Of Recovery (Much Less Of Simply Stopping Its Slide)

While U.S. existing home sales were “up” in January (but once again, down 23.8% on a year-over-year basis and with prices down 8.2% nationally and 13.4% in the West), the pace of U.S. new-home sales continued its slide in February, down 1.8% to its lowest level since February 1995 and with a median sales price that's down 2.7% (year-over-year).

In short, the national housing market has yet to show any real signs of recovery much less of simply stopping its slide (see the light blue line).

∙ The Good And The Bad (But Not Necessarily The Ugly) [SocketSite]
∙ New-Home Sales in U.S. Fall to Lowest in 13 Years [Bloomberg]
∙ January S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues Decline [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

March 25, 2008

January S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues Decline

According to the January 2008 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 2.9% from December ’07 to January '08 and are down 13.2% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 11.4% (having fallen 2.3% from December).

Las Vegas and Miami share the dubious title of the weakest markets in January, reporting double-digit annual declines of 19.3%, followed by Phoenix at -18.2%. In January, Washington and Minneapolis slipped into negative double-digit territory with annual returns of -10.9% and -10.0%, respectively.

Prices fell across all three price tiers for the San Francisco MSA with the rate of decline easing slightly for both the lower and upper third of homes.

The bottom third (under $545,294 at the time of acquisition) fell 4.4% from December to January (down 28.8% YOY); the middle third fell 4.2% from December to January (down 15.9% YOY); and the top third (over $794,192 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.7% from December to January (down 3.5% YOY).

And according to the Index, home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have returned to March 2004 levels, the middle third to August 2004 levels, and the top third to April 2005 levels.

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ Record Declines in Home Prices Continued in 2008 [Standard&Poor's]
∙ December S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Hits Double-Digit Dip [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (222) | (email story)

March 24, 2008

The Good And The Bad (But Not Necessarily The Ugly)

The good news on Wall Street: JPMorgan has raised its bid for Bear Stearns to about $10 per share. The cumulative bad news on Wall Street: 34,000 jobs have been lost over the past nine months.

The good news from the National Association of Realtors: The pace of U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly rose 2.9% in February (but remains 23.8 percent off the pace of 2007). The bad news from the National Association of Realtors: The median existing-home price was 8.2% lower on a year-over-year basis (and 13.4% lower in the West).

And the mixed news (depending upon your perspective and portfolio) and reaction to both bits on The Street: Treasuries fell and yields are up (which should increase rates).

∙ JPMorgan Raises Bear Stearns Bid to Woo Shareholders [Bloomberg]
∙ Wall Street Firms Cut 34,000 Jobs, Most Since 2001 Dot-Com Bust [Bloomberg]
∙ Existing Home Sales Rise In February [NAR]
∙ Treasuries Fall as Stocks, Mortgage Purchase Ease Haven Appeal [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

March 17, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 3/17/08

The inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 9% over the past two weeks and is now running 49% higher on a year-over-year basis. Reports of decreasing inventories in San Francisco are either incorrect or possibly refer to a decrease from the levels of last October which would not reflect the market’s seasonality.

Keep in mind that our listed inventory counts do not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor do they include multi-family listings (unless the units are individually listed).

And combined with early reports that listed sales volume in San Francisco was off by ~20% on a year-over-year basis last month, months of listed inventory has now crossed over the four month mark (which is relatively high for San Francisco and close to 2x on a year-over-year basis).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 3/03/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (51) | (email story)

March 14, 2008

San Francisco Recorded Sales Activity In February: Up (14.9% YOY)

According to DataQuick, home sales volume in San Francisco jumped 14.9% on a year-over-year basis last month (431 recorded sales in February ’08 versus 375 sales in February ‘07) and jumped 47.1% compared to the month prior (293 recorded sales in January ‘08). And while a general increase in reported sales activity in San Francisco shouldn’t catch any plugged-in readers by surprise (we noted the upward trend two weeks ago, and of course seasonality is in effect with respect to month-over-month gains), the magnitude of the increase is sure to raise an eyebrow or two (as it should).

Keep in mind, however, that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed (sold?) many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded). The sales reports from the San Francisco Association of Realtors will likely paint a very different picture in terms of February market activity (down ~22% according to one plugged-in reader). And it does raise the question of whether or not new developments are "stealing" transactions from the existing condo market.

The median sales price in February was $736,000, down 2.8% compared to February ’07 ($757,500) and down 1.1% compared to the month prior. That being said, we continue to see mix playing a significant role in supporting the median sales price in San Francisco.

For the greater Bay Area, sales volume in February was down 36.7% on a year-over-year basis but increased 11.2% from the month prior (3,989 recorded sales in February '08 versus 6,305 in February ’07 and 3,586 this past January). The recorded median sales price fell 11.6% on a year-over-year basis and was down 0.4% compared to the month prior.

At the extreme, Alameda recorded a 44.5% year-over-year reduction in sales volume (a loss of 603 transactions) and a 16.8% drop in median sales price. And outside of San Francisco no Bay Area county reported a drop of less than 35% in sales volume, and not a single Bay Area county reported a positive change in Median Sales Price (with both Sonoma and Solano reporting drops of over 20%).

∙ Bay Area home sales remain at two-decade low [DataQuick]
∙ San Francisco Sales Activity In January: Down Again (-27.1% YOY) [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 3/03/08 [SocketSite]
∙ Infinity And One Rincon Hill: Closings By The Numbers To Date (2/29) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (68) | (email story)

March 13, 2008

JustQuotes: Mortgage Bankers Report On Mortgage Fraud (It’s Up)

“Rising real estate values over the past few years threatened to price new homebuyers out of the market and led some to attempt purchases before they were creditworthy. The higher valuations also led some individual real estate investors to speculate and stretch the truth on applications for multiple properties, especially in active markets, such as Florida and Nevada.

They were aided in this tactic by industry professionals who hoped that any future loan problems would be covered by a profitable sale of the collateral. Credit standards were loosened. More importantly for fraud, documentation requirements were also reduced.

There has been a long history of fraud and sour consequences associated with low/reduced/no documentation loans. As an example, loan servicing staffs are discovering a substantial percentage of prime and non-conforming delinquencies are for loans where the applicants stated their intent to occupy, but were in fact, rental properties at the outset.”

∙ Tenth Periodic Mortgage Fraud Case Report to the MBA (pdf) [mari-inc.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

Another Apple Speaks On The Edge Of Nob Hill (1635 California #33)

Four months ago we pointed it out as “another apples to apples comp in the making." And while 1635 California is on a busy street, and we’ll be the first to admit that the layouts aren’t exactly spectacular (which we actually noted two years ago), nothing about the location nor the building has recently changed.

That being said, the 36 condos at 1635 California Street first hit the market two years ago and based on tax records it appears as though unit #33 sold for right around $780,000. Twenty months later 1635 California #33 hit the resale market for $795,000 (a sale at which would have represented 1% annual market appreciation) but was subsequently reduced to $749,000. And just last week, the sale of condo #33 closed escrow with a reported contract price of $740,000.

A sale at $740,000 represents annual market depreciation of right around 3% over the past two years which might surprise some. But it's probably not going to surprise a plugged-in “PotreroResident” who four months ago commented, “Based on my analysis of this building, this unit is most likely worth about $740-750k, at best.” On the record and on the money (at least for today).

∙ Another Apples To Apples Comp In The Making (1635 California #33) [SocketSite]
∙ 1635 California Street [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

JustQuotes: It's A Good Thing We Don’t Have Any ARMs Around Here…

“U.S. home foreclosure filings jumped 60 percent and bank seizures more than doubled in February as rates on adjustable mortgages rose and property owners were unable to sell or refinance amid falling prices….About $460 billion of adjustable-rate mortgages are scheduled to reset this year and another $420 billion will rise in 2011, according to New York-based analysts at Citigroup Inc.”

∙ U.S. Home Defaults, Foreclosures Rise 60% in February [Bloomberg]
∙ An ARM (And Quite Possibly A Leg) [SocketSite 6/05]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

March 12, 2008

Is It Simply The New New Strategy, Or Is It Actually A(nother) Sign?

It’s a plugged-in reader that points out another apple ripening on the Noe Valley housing tree. Purchased for $965,000 on 8/4/06, 1024 Sanchez is back on the market today with a list price of $949,000.

Is listing below the last sale price simply the newest pricing strategy (“made you look!”), or is it actually another sign? And once again, it's time to go on record with your pre-closing predictions.

UPDATE: We’ll add that it had been listed for $949,000 in 2006 as well.

∙ Listing: 1024 Sanchez (2/2) - $949,000 [MLS]
∙ Another Single-Family Apple On The Noe Valley Tree: 480 Duncan [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (61) | (email story)

March 10, 2008

And What Happened Seven And One Half Years Ago In San Francisco?

As we’ve often pointed out, sales volumes and home price appreciation have been falling in San Francisco over the past couple of years despite the fact that that by most accounts our local economy remains strong, employment and wages are up, and the cost of borrowing remains near historic lows. And this has been in marked contrast to our last real estate decline (2001-2002) which directly coincided with a local economic meltdown (a.k.a. The Internet Bubble).

And now, both the national economy and Bay Area Business Confidence Index are faltering and Federal rate cuts are failing to spark sales (but are doing a great job of weakening the dollar). In fact, The Bay Area Business Confidence Index “tumbled to its lowest level in its 7 1/2-year history, based on results of a survey conducted in late January and early February.”

Let’s see, 7 1/2-years ago would be right around...

∙ Record low Bay Area business confidence [SFGate]
∙ U.S. Economy: Payrolls Unexpectedly Decline for Second Month [Bloomberg]
∙ Bay Area “Notices Of Default” Heading North? (So To Speak) [SocketSite]
∙ February S&P/Case-Shiller Index Decline Continues For SF MSA [SocketSite 4/07]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

March 6, 2008

JustQuotes: Might It Draw Demand From Way Over In San Francisco?

"The developer of the recently opened Eight Orchids condominium mid-rise in Oakland hopes to auction off nearly a third of the units, with some starting bids $300,000 below prior asking prices, as builders struggle to unload new properties in the current housing climate."

"The auction of 41 units is scheduled for March 30....The minimum bid for one-bedrooms is $245,000, down from as high as $520,888; two-bedrooms will start at $325,000, down from as high as $630,888; and three-bedrooms will begin at $475,000, discounted from as much as $805,888. There is no "secret reserve," meaning any unit that receives at least the minimum offer will go to the bidder."

∙ Prices cut for Oakland condo auction [SFGate]
∙ 8 Orchids (Oakland) [8-orchids.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (38) | (email story)

Where Are Kate Bush And Peter Gabriel When You Need Them?

Despite federal rate cuts, mortgage rates that remain well below historic averages and even HOPE, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association U.S. foreclosure rates are at an all-time high.

New foreclosures jumped to 0.83 percent of all home loans in the fourth quarter from 0.54 percent a year earlier. Late payments rose to a 23-year high, the organization said in a report today.

"We're seeing people give up even before they get to the reset because they couldn't afford the home in the first place," said Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics for the Washington-based trade group.

And while the majority of new foreclosures (42%) are on adjustable-rate subprime mortgage products, “[a]nother 20 percent of new foreclosures were prime adjustable-rate mortgages, which accounted for 15 percent of all home loans, according to the report.”

Ah yes, those ARMS.

∙ U.S. Mortgage Foreclosures Rise as Owners 'Give Up' [Bloomberg]
∙ An ARM (And Quite Possibly A Leg) [SocketSite 6/05]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

March 5, 2008

JQ: While The Fed Giveth (Cuts), The Street Taketh Away (Spreads)

"The extra yield that investors demand to own so-called agency mortgage-backed securities over 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to the highest since 1986, boosting the cost of loans for homebuyers considered the least likely to default.

The difference in yields on the Bloomberg index for Fannie Mae's current-coupon, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds and 10- year government notes widened about 1 basis point, to 204 basis points, or 70 basis points higher than Jan. 15. The spread helps determine the interest rate homeowners pay on new prime mortgages of $417,000 or less. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point."

"Spreads tightened last week when the regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two of the largest buyers of the securities they guarantee, announced that temporary caps on their $1.5 trillion portfolio would be lifted. Investors have realized that the step was unimportant because the companies remain "capital-constrained," [a] New York-based UBS analysts wrote."

∙ Agency Mortgage-Backed Bond Spreads Reach Highest Since 1986 [Bloomberg]
∙ JustQuotes: What The OFHEO Are They Thinking? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:04 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

March 3, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 3/03/08

While we’ve seen sales volume in San Francisco trending up over the past two months, new listings continue to outpace new contracts as inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased 5% over the past two weeks and is up 42% on a year-over-year basis.

Do keep in mind, however, that while sales volume is trending up, it’s still running almost 30% under the pace of 2007. And combined with increasing inventory, it has resulted in a near doubling of months of listed inventory versus the same time last year.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 2/19/08 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Sales Activity In January: Down Again (-27.1% YOY) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

February 26, 2008

December S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Hits Double-Digit Dip

According to the December 2007 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 3.2% from November '07 to December ’07 and are down 10.8% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 9.8% (having fallen 2.3% from November).

Miami remains the weakest market, reporting a double-digit annual decline of 17.5%, followed by Las Vegas and Phoenix at -15.3% each. In December, San Francisco slipped into negative double-digit territory with an annual return of -10.8%. Charlotte, Portland and Seattle are the only three MSAs still experiencing positive annual growth rates; however, Seattle came in at only +0.5%, an almost flat growth rate.

Prices fell across all three price tiers for the San Francisco MSA with the rate of decline increasing most significantly for the middle two-thirds of homes.

The bottom third (under $565,563 at the time of acquisition) fell 5.7% from November to December (down 25.3% YOY); the middle third fell 4.0% from November to December (down 12.1% YOY); and the top third (over $815,549 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.1% from November to December (down 2.1% YOY).

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ Year End Numbers Mark Widespread Declines [Standard&Poor's]
∙ November S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues Decline [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (97) | (email story)

February 19, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 2/19/08

Despite some reports to the contrary, new listings continue to outpace new contracts in San Francisco as the inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased slightly (4.6%) over the past couple of weeks and is currently up 37% on a year-over-year basis.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 2/04/08 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (32) | (email story)

February 14, 2008

San Francisco Sales Activity In January: Down Again (-27.1% YOY)

According to DataQuick, sales volume for existing homes in San Francisco fell 27.1% on a year-over-year basis last month (293 sales in January ’08 versus 402 sales in January ‘07) and fell 34.2% compared to the month prior (445 recorded sales in December ‘07). And as we've noted over the past three months, the data once again suggests that October’s uptick in reported sales activity was at least partially driven by a delay in September purchases/closings rather than a significant rebound in buyer activity.

The median sales price in January was $744,000, down 0.8% compared to January ’07 ($750,000) but up 1.8% compared to the month prior. That being said, we continue to believe that mix is playing a significant role in supporting the median in San Francisco.

For the greater Bay Area, sales volume in January was down 41.9% on a year-over-year basis and fell 29.2% from the month prior (3,586 recorded sales in January '08 versus 6,168 in January ’07 and 5,065 this past December). The recorded median sales price fell 8.5% on a year-over-year basis and was down 6.4% compared to the month prior.

Last month's sales were the lowest for any month in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. Sales have decreased on a year-over-year basis for 36 consecutive months. Prior to last month the slowest January was in 1995, when 4,326 homes sold. The strongest January, in 2005, posted 8,298 sales. The average for the month is 6,319 sales.

At the extremes, Napa recorded a 55.1% year-over-year reduction in sales volume and a 1.8% drop in median sales price, while Marin was the best performing Bay Area county with a 1.8% increase in Median Sales Price (but a 37.4% drop in sales volume). Both Contra Costa and Alameda Counties recorded significant drops in both sales volume (down 42.4% and 39.0% respectively) and median sales price (down 15.8% and 14.4% respectively).

∙ Bay Area home sales lowest for any month in two decades [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Sales Activity In December: Down Again (-24.4% YOY) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (108) | (email story)

February 7, 2008

Foreclosure Activity In San Francisco As Mapped By Trulia: 2/07/08

As a reader points out, over the past two months the number of San Francisco properties in some stage of foreclosure as mapped by Trulia has increased from 215 to 409.

And while the majority of mapped properties remain in District 10 (and at this point have only received notices of default), we will point out a noticeable shift of activity to the southwest (i.e., not Bayview).

∙ Current Foreclosure Activity In San Francisco As Mapped By Trulia [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (86) | (email story)

February 4, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 2/04/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased slightly (5.2%) over the past couple of weeks and is currently running just over 29% higher on a year-over-year basis (up 38% compared to 2006). And yes, our Q1 2008 Complete Inventory Index (Cii) will be published this afternoon tomorrow.

UPDATE: While listed inventory is up, according to a plugged-in reader preliminary sales totals for last month are currently down 35% on a year-over-year basis, down 46% as compared to January 2004, and could possibly represent a 14+ year low.

∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (Cii) [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (Cii): Q1 2008 (San Francisco) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

February 1, 2008

JustQuotes: Crunch Goes The Construction Captial For Condominiums

"While a dozen amenity-packed deluxe condo projects have vied for attention over the past three years, financing for new construction has dried up in recent months. Instead of the 10 to 15 percent equity common in past few years, lenders now look for developers to put in 40 percent of construction costs, and few banks are willing to lend more than $50 million for new condo projects, according to Michael Joseph of Kearny Street Capital, a commercial mortgage broker who worked with Jackson Pacific on [One Hawthorne].

'A lot of banks are licking their wounds right now and they are not interested in more speculative development,' said Joseph."

∙ New S.F. condo project will be a rarity in 2008 [Business Times]
∙ One Hawthorne: The Design (And Some Details) Of What’s On The Way [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

January 30, 2008

Listed San Francisco Condo Sales Breakdown: December 2007

The December '07 breakdown for listed condominium sales in San Francisco has been published by the San Francisco Association of Realtors (and posted by the SFCAHomes Blog).

As reported, listed condo sales volume in San Francisco was down 32.8% on a year-over-year basis with the biggest losses in District 5 (down 14 sales or 37.8%), District 1 (down 11 sales or 64.7%) and District 10 (down 10 sales or 90.9%).

And if you’re a proponent of Median Sales Price as a measure of anything other than what people are buying (which we’re really not), it might be interesting to note that while District 5 was up 10.7% year-over-year on 23 sales, District 9 was down 16.4% on 39 sales and District 7 was down 4.7% on 16.

∙ December 2007 Condo Market Wrap (pdf) [SFCAHomes Blog]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

January 29, 2008

November S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Continues Decline

According to the November 2007 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 3.2% from October '07 to November ’07 and are down 8.6% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 8.4% (having fallen 2.2% from October).

Miami remains the weakest market, reporting a double-digit annual decline of 15.1%. San Diego followed with -13.4%, Las Vegas with -13.2% and Detroit with –13.0%. Seven of the metro areas are now posting double digit declines in their annual growth rates. Charlotte, Portland and Seattle are the only three MSAs still experiencing positive annual growth rates.

Prices fell across all three price tiers for the San Francisco MSA with the rate of decline leveling off for the lower two-thirds of homes but accelerating at the top.

The bottom third (under $586,277 at the time of acquisition) fell 5.3% from September to October (down 21.3% YOY); the middle third fell 2.5% from September to October (down 8.5% YOY); and the top third (over $834,425 at the time of acquisition) fell 3.1% from September to October (down 1.6% YOY).

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ Record Declines in Home Prices Continue in November (pdf) [Standard&Poor's]
∙ October S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA And Price Tiers Fall [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (70) | (email story)

January 28, 2008

Recap: What’s The Scoop On Foreign Investment In San Francisco?

Four months ago we asked the readers, “What’s The Scoop On Foreign Investment In San Francisco?” And perhaps Malin Giddings' quote in yesterday’s Chronicle summarizes our readers’ comments best:

"I know that there are a lot of sellers who want that to be true, and I know that the Europeans are definitely buying in New York," said Malin Giddings, who specializes in upscale San Francisco real estate for TRI Coldwell Banker. "But we see very few foreigners buying [here]."

∙ What’s The Scoop On Foreign Investment In San Francisco? [SocketSite]
∙ Foreigners get a piece of the real estate pie [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

January 22, 2008

Bay Area Notices Of Default Head North. And South. And East.

While a 93.1% YOY increase in San Francisco “Notice of Default” (NOD) activity last quarter sounds quite dramatic, in absolute terms it still represents relatively few properties (334). But the number is growing. And as is happening statewide, we're seeing an increase in the percentage of notices that end up being bank owned.

Of the homeowners in default [throughout California], an estimated 41 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 71 percent. The increased portion of homes lost to foreclosure reflects the slow real estate market, as well as the number of homes bought during the height of the market with multiple-loan financing, which makes 'work-outs' difficult.

Within the greater Bay Area, Contra Costa hit a record level of Q4 default activity (3,805 notices, up 151.8% year-over-year) as did Sacramento (5,807 notices, up 120.4% year-over-year). And neither Alameda (2,573 notices, up 119.4%) nor Santa Clara (2,162 notices, up 147.4%) were too far behind.

Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between August 2005 and October 2006. The median age was 22 months, up from 15 a year earlier, indicating that the pool of at-risk home loans is getting larger.

And as we wrote nine months ago, "keep in mind that long-term interest rates remain near historic lows, and according to most, the Bay Area economy remains strong (and incomes are up)."

∙ California Foreclosure Activity Still Rising [DQNews]
∙ Bay Area “Notices Of Default” Heading North? (So To Speak) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

January 21, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 1/21/08

Inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased just over 21% over the past couple of weeks, a normal December to January bump. Less than 15% of the inventory added over the past couple of weeks was in District 10. And listed inventory continues to run ~23% higher on a year-over-year basis (up ~36% compared to 2006).

Keep in mind, however, that we still haven’t seen the return of a significant number of listings that were withdrawn from the market at the end of last year, and we expect to see a near-term increase in listings for properties that are being sold to fund purchases in either Infinity or One Rincon Hill. And at 1,053 Active listings, we’re running about three months ahead of schedule compared to either 2006 or 2007.

Combined with the downward trend in sales volume, we estimate Months of Listed Inventory has increased about 50% on a year-over-year basis (from 2.1 to an estimated 3.3). And with regard to unlisted inventory, plug in next Monday (1/28) for our Q1 2008 Complete Inventory Index (Cii).

∙ What Happens When It’s Time To Fund? We’ll Have To Wait And See [SocketSite]
∙ Walkthroughs At Infinity: A Chance To Share Your Impressions [SocketSite]
∙ One Rincon Hill: Closings, Walkthroughs, And (Almost) Anything Else [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 1/02/08 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Sales Activity In December: Down Again (-24.4% YOY) [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (Cii) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (30) | (email story)

January 18, 2008

Bay Area Rents Surge, But Housing P/E Ratio Remains Out Of Line

There’s no doubt Bay Area average rents are up. And while we wouldn’t be surprised to see another 10-15% increase in 2008 (at least for San Francisco proper), keep in mind that the current housing Price-to-Earnings ratio is still well above its long-term average for the San Francisco MSA.

An analysis by Credit Suisse pegged the historical housing P/E ratio for the San Francisco MSA at 24x Earnings (or annual rent) versus a top 52 market average of 16.6x. So yes, we have long paid a premium (compared to most other areas) to buy versus rent in the Bay Area (or as many often comment, “it has always been expensive to buy here”).

That being said, the same Credit Suisse analysis pegged the housing P/E ratio for the San Francisco MSA at 42x in 2006. Assuming no change in property values and a 9.4% increase in rents during 2007, the current P/E ratio would be 38.4x. And a return to the historical 24x would either require rents to rise another 60%, property values to fall 37.5%, or a combination of the two.

∙ Bay Area rents surge 9.4% in last year [SFGate]
∙ San Francisco’s Housing P/E [SocketSite 5/05]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (92) | (email story)

A San Francisco Landlord Wants Your Thoughts (And To Cash Out)

From a plugged-in reader and landlord in San Francisco:

As a [landlord], I'm seeing rents zoom past dotcom levels and also [Gross Rent Multipliers] are at all time highs. When do you think this cycle will peak?

I have significant capital gains and want to sell my commercial property and buy multiple SFHs via 1031 exchange, and live in each for a couple of years to cash out $500K tax-free a piece. There has to [be] a point in time to pull the trigger where commercial property peaks and SFHs bottom. Some of you sound like astute investors, what do you think?

Bottom line is, I'm getting old and would rather be holding cash in this uncertain economy.

And speaking of getting older in the Bay Area, “[w]ith almost 18 percent of its population over 60, San Francisco is already the grayest major metropolis in the country. By 2020, it is expected that more than 21 percent of the population will be over 60 as Baby Boomers age and lifespans increase." Oh, and “30 percent of the subsidized affordable housing being built or in the pipeline in San Francisco is for seniors.”

∙ Bay Area Rents Surge, But Housing P/E Ratio Remains Out Of Line [SocketSite]
∙ S.F. faces silver tsunami [San Francisco Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

January 17, 2008

San Francisco Sales Activity In December: Down Again (-24.4% YOY)

According to DataQuick, sales volume for existing homes in San Francisco fell 24.4% on a year-over-year basis last month (445 sales in December ’07 versus a revised 589 sales in December ’06) and fell 7.1% compared to the month prior (479 recorded sales in November ‘07). And as we've noted over the past two months, the data once again suggests that October’s uptick in reported sales activity was at least partially driven by a delay in September closings rather than a significant rebound in buyer activity.

The median sales price in December was $731,000, down 1.9% compared to a revised December ’06 ($745,000) and down 10.3% compared to the month prior. That being said, we continue to believe that mix is playing a significant role in supporting the median.

For the greater Bay Area, sales volume in November was down 39.5% on a year-over-year basis and fell 1.2% from the month prior (5,065 recorded sales in December '07 versus a revised 8,372 in December ’06 and 5,127 this past November). The recorded median sales price fell 4.9% on a revised year-over-year basis and was down 6.6% compared to the month prior.

Last month was the slowest December is DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. Sales have decreased on a year-over-year basis for 35 consecutive months. Until last month, the slowest December was in 1990, when 5,458 homes sold. The strongest December, in 2003, saw 12,349 sales. The average for the month is 8,903.

At the extremes, Sonoma recorded a 48.5% year-over-year reduction in sales volume and a 21.9% drop in median sales price, while Napa was the best performing Bay Area county with no change (0.0%) in it's Median Sales Price (but a 43.3% drop in sales volume).

∙ Bay Area home sales drag along bottom, median price back to 2005 [DataQuick]
∙ San Francisco Sales Activity In November: Back Down (-15.7% YOY) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (76) | (email story)

January 16, 2008

Listed Single-Family Home Sales Volume Down 27.9% In December

According to the San Francisco Association of Realtors (and via the SFCAHomes Blog), sales volume for listed single-family homes in San Francisco was down 27.9% on a year-over-year basis in December.

The largest declines in sales (not "prices") occurred in districts 9 (down 62.5%), 5 (down 50%), and 4 (down 27.8%). The much maligned district 10 was down 11.9%. And only district 7 recorded an increase in sales activity: up 100% (from 3 to 6 sales).

And before anybody starts touting increases in median sales price as proof of appreciation, do keep in mind that the “median selling price” in district 7 increased from $1,850,000 in December of 2006 to $4,005,000 in December of 2007 (an increase of 116%). Nope, there's definitely no "mix" in these numbers.

∙ Single Family Homes Market Wrap December 2007 San Francisco [SFCAHomes Blog]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (53) | (email story)

January 2, 2008

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 1/02/08

The year (2007) ended with an inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco that was 23.9% higher on a year-over-year basis. And more specifically (and possibly telling), 59.9% higher for single-family homes (driven primarily by slowing sales in Districts 2, 4, and 10) versus 1.4% higher for condos and TICs.

The percentage of active listings that were reduced at the time of year’s end was also up on a year-over-year basis (from 26% to 31%), with the absolute number of reduced single-family home listings up 104% (from 73 to 149 listings). Once again, driven primarily, but not exclusively, by District 10 (which includes Bayview, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Outer Mission and Visitacion Valley).

∙ Listed San Francisco Home Sales Volume Down/Down In November [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

JustQuotes: The Fast Changing Façade (and Faces) Of San Francisco

"San Francisco is changing so rapidly some say the San Franciscans of 2007 won't recognize the place in five years.

It's part of a trend that began after the city picked itself up after the dot-com bust of a few years ago. There are plans for more condos, bigger high-rises, so many fine restaurants that more San Franciscans will recognize the name of a celebrity chef than the quarterback of the 49ers.

"Some people say change is bad," said Meagan Levitan, a real estate broker who is also on the Recreation and Park Commission. "I want my old city, but at the same time, change is exciting."

But change is also sobering - some experts worry that a new San Francisco of high-rises and fine living will be a city of the very rich and very poor, a boutique city and not a real one."

∙ High-rises are a sign of the times in changing San Francisco [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:49 AM | Permalink | Comments (59) | (email story)

Cashing Out: If It Can Happen There, Can It Happen Anywhere?

If hardened New Yorkers have started leaving The City for financial reasons, perhaps it’s not so crazy to think that a growing number of San Franciscans might consider doing the same.

People are discovering that with Manhattan’s high apartment prices, they can cash out and get much more for their money outside the city, where the inventory is growing and the prices are falling. Some buyers, not quite ready for picket-fence lives, are even finding pockets of urbanism that didn’t exist outside the city a few years ago.

And it begs the question, how will falling prices outside of San Francisco proper (or even in the outer districts) impact the demand curve (and prices) throughout the rest of the city?

∙ Cashing Out of New York City [New York Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (61) | (email story)

December 26, 2007

October S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA And Price Tiers Fall

According to the October 2007 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 2.1% from September '07 to October '07 and are down 6.2% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 6.7% (having fallen 1.4% from September).

Miami surpassed Tampa in October, reporting a double-digit annual decline of 12.4%. Tampa followed with -11.8%, Detroit with -11.2% and San Diego with -11.1%. Six of the metro areas are now posting double digit declines in their annual growth rates. Atlanta and Dallas finally entered negative territory, with declines of 0.7% and 0.1%, respectively, leaving only Charlotte, Portland and Seattle as the MSAs still experiencing positive annual growth rates.

Prices fell across all three price tiers for the San Francisco MSA.

The bottom third (under $604,785 at the time of acquisition) fell 5.3% from September to October (down 17.0% YOY); the middle third fell 2.2% from September to October (down 7.2% YOY); and the top third (over $853,245 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.2% from September to October (up 0.8% YOY).

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ Broadbased, Record Declines in Home Prices in October [Standard&Poor's]
∙ September S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA And Price Tiers Fall [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

December 20, 2007

San Francisco Sales Activity In November: Back Down (-15.7% YOY)

According to DataQuick, sales volume (i.e., demand last month) for existing homes in San Francisco fell 15.7% on a year-over-year basis last month (479 sales in November ’07 versus a revised 568 sales in November ’06) and fell 8.9% compared to the month prior (526 recorded sales in October ‘07). As we noted last month, it appears as though October’s uptick in reported sales activity was at least partially driven by a delay in September closings rather than a much ballyhooed rebound in buyer activity.

At the same time, the median sales price in November was $814,750, up 7.2% compared to a revised November ’06 ($760,000) and up 2.5% compared to the month prior. And yes, for some strange reason we’re still thinking mix.

For the greater Bay Area, sales volume in November was down 36.2% on a year-over-year basis and fell 6.5% from the month prior (5,127 recorded sales in November '07 versus a revised 8,042 in November ’06 and 5,486 this past October). The recorded median sales price fell a nominal 0.3% as compared to the month prior but was up 1.5% on a revised year-over-year basis.

At the extreme, Solano County recorded a 50.2% year-over-year reduction in sales volume (and a drop of 14.8% in median sales price) while Contra Costa County recorded a 46.0% year-over-year drop in sales and a 6.9% drop in median sales price despite a reported 1.3% growth in population from July 2006 to July 2007.

∙ Bay Area home sales stuck at two-decade low; price picture mixed [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco’s Sales Volume Up And Down In October [SocketSite]
∙ Listed San Francisco Home Sales Volume Down/Down In November [SocketSite]
∙ JustQuotes: CA DOF Estimates Population Growth In San Francisco [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (77) | (email story)

JustQuotes: CA DOF Estimates Population Growth In San Francisco

“The Bay Area's population growth rate outpaced the state last year as the nine-county region, led by San Francisco and Santa Clara County, added nearly 90,000 new residents, according to the Department of Finance's latest data released Wednesday.

Santa Clara County saw the area's biggest gain, attracting 29,904 new residents for a 1.67 percent increase from the previous year for a population of 1.8 million as of July 1. San Francisco was second, growing by 1.4 percent to 11,327 and bringing its population to 817,537. Contra Costa County was third with 13,189 new residents, or a growth rate of 1.28 percent. It now has 1.04 million residents.”

∙ Santa Clara County, S.F. lead Bay Area in population growth [SFGate]
∙ California County Population Estimates and Components of Change 2000-2007 [CA DOF]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

Their Mascot Might Be A Bull, But Merrill Lynch Is Anything But

The title of yesterday’s Economic Commentary from Merrill Lynch: “Housing deflation could be a multi-year process.” And the executive summary:

Both the near-term and longer-run outlooks for the housing market remain clouded in what is a severe downturn in starts, sales and prices that has become national in scope. As we saw in the November housing starts data, the builders are now frantically cutting production.

But with the sales backdrop still softening, they may have to slice their construction plans by another 30% before we hit bottom on a cyclical basis. And, that bottom could be as long as a year away. Beyond that, weak demographic fundamentals point to years of sluggish real estate activity, particularly in terms of the “price”. The looming dominance of the “move down” buyer suggests that home values will continue to soften long after the building industry mops up the current excess supply. In fact, real estate pricing in general can be expected to be in the doldrums through 2012.

The need to save for retirement will have to increasingly come “organically” in the form of setting aside an extra nickel or dime from every dollar earned in after-tax wages and salaries as opposed to what we as a society have been doing for the better part of the past decade, in essence, blurring the distinction between real estate as a “consumption good” (place to live) and real estate as part of the “portfolio” (investment) that was going to experience sustained double-digit appreciation and emerge as a fountain of cash-flow in the future.

Expectations are already in the process of being deflated and we are at the early stages of a savings revival in the traditional sense of the word, and this will (i) be deflationary for the aggregate demand curve; (ii) be bullish for Treasury bonds; (iii) act as an underpinning for the dollar insofar as this process continues to foster an improvement in the current account deficit (which, excluding energy, is down to a six-year low).

See the chart [above] – at the height of the bubble, almost one in four households who were contemplating a move into real estate based their decisions on future price appreciation. This “investor class” that dominated the housing market for so long has now seen its share dwindle to a record low of 4%. This is a very big deal as it illustrates just how far the speculation has been expunged, and it also heralds a major (and healthy) shift in how the public now perceives real estate.

And while the report is national by nature, there are obviously themes that might resonate right here at home. And of course, there’s the punch line:

Here is what we really “do not get”. There are still economists out there talking about how the housing recession is still local and not regionally broad based. We have no idea who their data vendors are. In our view, this clearly goes down as the most national real estate downturn since the 1930s.

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

JustQuotes: Perhaps Not The Other Shoe (But At Least A Lace)

“Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis told editors of the Wall Street Journal that he's worried about borrowers with strong credit scores not making loan payments if the housing crisis worsens.

Such concerns by the head of California's largest bank could trigger a tightening of credit availability beyond the subprime customer base.

"There's been a change in social attitudes toward default," Lewis told the Wall Street Journal. "We're seeing people who are current on their credit cards but are defaulting on their mortgages. I'm astonished that people would walk away from their homes."

Apparently even borrowers with strong credit scores are finding it easier to walk away from their mortgages, especially if they put little or no money down on houses and condos purchased for investment purposes.”

∙ BofA CEO worries about creditworthy borrowers defaulting [Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (48) | (email story)

December 19, 2007

RealtyTrac Reports: November 2007 Foreclosure Activity In California

“A total of 39,992 foreclosure filings were reported in California in November, the most of any state despite a 21 percent decrease from the previous month. The state’s November foreclosure activity was still up nearly 108 percent from November 2006, and the state’s foreclosure rate of one foreclosure filing for every 325 households was 1.9 times the national average and fifth highest among the states.”

“California cities accounted for five of the nation’s top 10 metro foreclosure rates in November, one fewer than in the previous month. Stockton, Calif., took the top spot, with one foreclosure filing for every 99 households — more than six times the national average. Modesto, Calif., took the No. 2 spot, with one foreclosure filing for every 104 households, and Merced, Calif., took the No. 3 spot, with one foreclosure filing for every 106 households. Other California cities in the top 10 were Vallejo-Fairfield at No. 6 and Riverside-San Bernardino at No. 9.”

∙ Foreclosure Activity Decreases 10 Percent In November [RealtyTrac]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

JustQuotes: Forget About The Floor Plan, Who’s In The Kitchen Below?

"Tony high-rises have always lured potential residents with views, pools and prestigious ZIP codes. But now, well-to-do Baby Boomers and young, upwardly mobile professionals want the amenities of high-end hotels. So developers are putting on the Ritz. And because San Francisco spends more money on dining out than any other metropolis on record, haute cuisine is becoming part of the package."

UPDATE: "Rumor has it that The Palms are close to closing a deal with a restauranteur, replacing their existing sales office."

UPDATE Redux: "Regarding the Palms update -- at the building holiday party one of the sales people (who lives in the bldg) said a Japanese (sushi?) restaurant has signed on to move in where the sales office is. Apparently, a restaurant with other locations in SF. The sales team is vacating by the end of Dec. She also said there are four units left here."

∙ As upscale home complexes add great chefs, more buyers are biting [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

December 12, 2007

Listed San Francisco Home Sales Volume Down/Down In November

According to the San Francisco Association of Realtors (via SFCAHomes Blog), November sales volume for listed single family homes in San Francisco fell 24.9% on a year-over-year basis (175 transactions in 2007 versus 233 transactions in 2006) and dropped 11.6% compared to the month prior (198 transactions in October 2007).

Drops in districts two, four and ten accounted for almost all of the lost volume while district one showed the only (relatively) significant increase (from 13 sales in 11/06 to 22 sales in 11/07). And as was the case last month, expect the DataQuick counts for November to follow suit (in terms of direction).

∙ San Francisco's November Single Family Home Sales Market Wrap [SFCAHomes Blog]
∙ Listed San Francisco Home Sales Volume Up And Down In October [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (23) | (email story)

December 11, 2007

Current Foreclosure Activity In San Francisco As Mapped By Trulia

A plugged-in reader notes that Trulia has started mapping foreclosure activity in San Francisco as reported by RealtyTrac (which not only includes bank-owned properties but notices of default and scheduled sales as well). And while we are suckers for a good map (or graphic), we will note that the depth of Trulia’s property specific information suffers from the same weaknesses as the Yahoo Foreclosure Center.

That being said, Trulia currently maps 215 properties in San Francisco in some stage of foreclosure (mostly notices of default). The majority are concentrated in District 10 (which shouldn't catch anybody by surprise). And we will be tracking how that number (and concentration) changes over time.

[Full Disclosure: Trulia currently advertises in the SocketSite Marketplace (but played no part in prompting this post).]

∙ Bay Area “Notices Of Default” Heading North? (So To Speak) [SocketSite]
∙ Yahoo Unveils Underwhelming Foreclosure Center [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (23) | (email story)

December 10, 2007

NAR Adds 0.18% And Aims To End The Year On A Positive Note

For the first time in nine months, the National Association of Realtors has revised their forecasts for national existing home sales in 2007 and 2008 upwards.

In both cases, however, NAR's revised forecasts have added 10,000 home sales to last month's estimates of 5.66 and 5.69 million (2007 and 2008 respectively). And in both cases it represents an increase of 0.18% over last month's forecasts (which seems to be more spin than substance) and a drop of 12.5% as compared to 2006 (which would represent the lowest level of market activity since 2002).

The trade group also said its index that forecasts near-term home sales inched upward in October. The trade group's seasonally adjusted index of pending sales for existing homes rose 0.6 percent to 87.2 from an upwardly revised September index of 86.7, but was down 18.4 percent from a year ago — the third-largest year-over year decline on record.

The Realtors group also said the median price for U.S. existing homes — the point at which half sold for more and half for less — will sink by 1.9 percent to $217,600 this year and rise 0.3 percent next year to $218,300.

∙ Realtors' Forecast Bucks Common Wisdom [Associate Press]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

Two Noe Valley Renovations A Block (And A Half Million Dollars) Apart

It's another reader’s comment (with which we very much agree):

I have been an architect and developer myself for over 25 years and it has been interesting, to say the least, to see so many people jump into the business of building homes. I think they became confused between the profits earned from a rapid escalation run-up brought on by cheap easy financing, and times past when good quality product in good locations sold because of real established value and experience. It will be nice when this market shakes out all of the "developers" and "designers".

And yes, we'll let you make the call (right here and now).

∙ Listing: 549 28th Street (4/4) - $2,100,000 [Virtual Tour] [MLS]
∙ Listing: 455 27th Street (4/3.5) - $2,595,000 [Virtual Tour] [MLS]
∙ Could “Priced Right” In Ashbury Heights Be Less Than What Was Paid? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

December 5, 2007

Single-Family Apples To Apples (And A Reader’s Perspective)

It’s a plugged-in reader that alerts us to the sale of 226 Caselli Avenue, a renovated single-family home in Eureka Valley that closed escrow last week for $1,420,200. And it’s the same reader that notes that the home had previously sold for $1,515,000 two years ago (on 8/16/05).

But quite honestly, it's not this home's drop in value over the past couple of years which grabbed our attention (okay, so perhaps a bit). No, it was our plugged-in reader’s side note that did the trick:

Ironically, as new homeowners on the block (yes, we bought within the past year), you would think that we would be dismayed, or at the very least experiencing extreme denial, about these listings. After all, there seems to be such a strong demarcation between the renting "bears" and the homeowning "bulls" in the comments' section of the blog. But before we were homeowners, we were well aware that the SF market might be headed for trouble, and gaining a mortgage and a property tax bill did not suddenly make us grow blinders as well!

We bought a house this year...not because we were trying to 'time the market,' and not because we believed our house's appreciation would beat out our stock market investments, but because it was the right time for *us* (recent job promotion, new baby on the way...all the reasons that normal pre-bubble citizens used to buy houses). We didn't buy our house as an investment...and if the market declines by 10-20% (and I think this is a possibility)...well, we bought for the long-term and intend to stay here at least 5, if not 15, years. Yes, we may lose money...but cheerleading real estate from the top of our nearest real estate blog will not change that, and declaring that our house is appreciating 10% this year will not make it so.

So I do believe that one can be a homeowner AND a rational observer as well, and I bet there are many like-minded readers of [SocketSite].

In betting terms, that’s what we'd call a sure thing. Thank you for reminding us that the average SocketSite reader is anything but (average). And as always, thank you for plugging in.

∙ The Average SocketSite Reader (Is Anything But) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (102) | (email story)

December 3, 2007

An Apples To Apples Sale In The Marina (1751 Beach): The Market

1751 Beach Street (a renovated three-bedroom, two-bath Marina condo) closed escrow this past Friday with a contract price of $1,420,000. A sale of this same condo in July of 2002 for $1,100,000 would suggest average annual market appreciation of 4.9% over the past five and one-half years.

Then again, 1751 Beach Street also changed hands a little over two years ago (September 2005) for $1,400,000. And with this data point in hand, average annual market appreciation for this property is more accurately represented as 7.8% from July 2002 to September 2005 and 0.7% from September 2005 to November 2007.

[Editor’s Note: Up next, a look at this property from the perspective of an investment over the past two years (so let’s try to keep the comments on this post related to the market).]

∙ A Case Of Premature Reduction At 1751 Beach In The Marina? [SocketSite]
∙ An Apples To Apples Sale In The Marina (1751 Beach): The Investment [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 12/03

Once again, the inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell over the past two weeks (12.0%) as is typical of a normal winter market slowdown. And listed inventory levels remain up (6.6%) on a year-over-year basis as does the number of active listings that have undergone at least one price reduction (up 18.3%).

And yes, a year-end edition of our Complete Inventory Index (Cii) is close on the horizon.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 11/19 [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (CII): Q3 2007 (SF) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (25) | (email story)

November 27, 2007

September S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA And Price Tiers Fall

According to the September 2007 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA slipped 4.6% year-over-year and fell 0.8% from August '07 to September ‘07. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 5.5% (down 0.9% from August).

While Tampa remains the metro area with the largest annual decline, at -11.1%, Miami surpassed Detroit in September, reporting a decline of 10% over the past 12 months. Detroit and San Diego followed with -9.6% each.

Prices also fell across all three price tiers for the San Francisco MSA.

The bottom third (under $614,308 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.4% from August to September (down 13.2% YOY); the middle third fell 0.9% from August to September (down 5.6% YOY); and the top third (over $860,000 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.3% from August to September (up 1.4% YOY).

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., the greater MSA).

UPDATE: And by request (or at least an appropriate amount of taunting), the San Francisco Home Price Index (HPI) tiers plotted logarithmically:

∙ U.S. National Home Price Index Posts a Record Annual Decline (pdf) [S&P]
∙ August S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: San Francisco MSA Falls (But Less) [SocketSite]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index For San Francisco By Price Tier [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (62) | (email story)

November 26, 2007

JustQuotes: Looking At SF Through Blue/Green Colored Glass(es)

"To be sure, glass-clad buildings are nothing new in San Francisco. The Hallidie Building, built at 130 Sutter St. in 1917, wears one of the world's first glass "curtain walls," in which pre-assembled panels are hung into place on a building's structural form.

But as glass-and-steel high-rises recast the skyline after World War II, overtly modern buildings sparked a backlash. The shift culminated in 1985's Downtown Plan, which decreed that new buildings should "contribute to the visual unity of the city." Another rule: "Highly reflective materials, particularly mirrored or highly reflective glass, should not be used."

The planning director at the time: Dean Macris. The planning director today: Macris, who returned to the post in 2004.

While Macris now champions contemporary design, he and Nikitas say the 1985 edict against glossy glass still applies. But the sheer number of sheer towers is causing alarm, as is the fact that the first batch hasn't lived up to planner expectations: "I can't say we've said, 'Aha, there's the perfect solution,' " Macris acknowledged."

∙ Newest towers will give S.F. skyline a touch of glass [SFGate]
∙ Testing tries to ensure that glass structures don't court disaster [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

November 21, 2007

When Good Comps Go Bad (Down In The Marina)

Based on the assumption of an appreciating market, and past sales (e.g., comps) in the exact same Marina building, the original list price of $1,229,000 for 1307 Bay Street #3 probably seemed quite reasonable at the time. But it didn’t sell for that.

Nor did it sell for the reduced price of $1,195,000. Or $1,179,000. Or $1,139,000. Or even $1,069,000. It did close escrow two weeks ago, however, for $1,030,000 (16.2% under that original asking).

And yes, that’s $80,000 (7.2%) less that what #1 sold for in April of 2005. That’s $112,000 (9.8%) less that what #2 sold for in April of 2006. And that’s $140,000 (12%) less than what #4 (which is directly below #3) sold for last November (2006).

And while Bay is indeed a busy street, it was last year (and the year before that) as well. So if the Marina location hasn’t changed, what the heck has?

∙ Damn Those Direct Comps In The Marina (1307 Bay Street) [SocketSite]
∙ RealRecentReductions: You’ve Seen These Before (Will You Again?) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (132) | (email story)

JustQuotes: What’s The Cause And What’s The Effect?

“Countrywide, GMAC, Litton and HomeEq - which collectively service more than one quarter of subprime loans to people with poor credit - agreed to maintain the initial, lower interest rate for some subprime borrowers whose rates are scheduled to jump significantly higher. To qualify, borrowers must occupy their homes, have made their payments on time and prove they cannot afford payments with the higher interest rate.”

"Property values are falling dramatically, primarily because there are so many foreclosures already on the market in some areas," [Larry Litton Jr., chief executive of Houston's Litton Loan Servicing] said. "Clearly, it is not good for our investors to have the real estate back. It feels like a no-brainer for a loan servicer to keep the payment where it is, keep another piece of real estate off the market and keep the borrower in the house."

∙ Governor, 4 big lenders agree on plan to stall high mortgage rates [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

November 19, 2007

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 11/19

While the normal winter market slowdown is upon us, and inventory of Active listed single-family homes, condos, and TIC listings in San Francisco fell 8.0% over the past few weeks, listed inventory levels are up 8.7% on a year-over-year basis.

Also worth noting, the number of active listings that have undergone at least one price reduction (440) is up 18.9% as compared to the same time last year.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 10/29 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

November 15, 2007

San Francisco’s Sales Volume Up And Down In October

According to DataQuick, sales volume (i.e., demand last month) for existing homes in San Francisco fell 8.2% on a year-over-year basis last month (526 sales in October ’07 versus a revised 573 sales in October ’06) but rose 12.2% compared to the month prior (469 recorded sales in September ‘07). At the same time, the median sales price in October was $795,000, up 3.9% compared to a revised October ’06 ($765,000) and up 2.8% compared to the month prior. (And yes, we’re still thinking mix.)

And as we noted yesterday, the question remains, did the mortgage meltdown in August simply delay purchases/closings (which would have pushed September volume into October), or is sales activity in San Francisco actually picking up?

While there is always a seasonal decline in sales from summer to fall, home purchases that were financed with mortgages for more than $417,000, so-called "jumbos", have dropped in half. Homes purchased with conforming loans have increased 12 percent.

For the greater Bay Area, sales volume in October was down 35.7% on a year-over-year basis (again, not a typo) but rose 9.4% from the month prior (5,486 recorded sales in October '07 versus a revised 8,532 in October ’06 and 5,014 this past September). The recorded median sales price rose a nominal 1.0% as compared to the month prior, and was up 2.4% on a revised year-over-year basis.

Outside of San Francisco county, the smallest drop in year-over-year sales volume was recorded in Marin (down 28.7%) and the largest in Napa (down 53.9%).

∙ Bay Area home sales drag along bottom [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco's Sales Volume Falls, Broader Bay Area Plummets [SocketSite]
∙ Listed San Francisco Home Sales Volume Up And Down In October [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (57) | (email story)

November 14, 2007

Listed San Francisco Home Sales Volume Up And Down In October

DataQuick will likely release their numbers later this week, but according to the San Francisco Association of Realtors, and via the SFCondoMap Blog, October sales volume for listed single family homes in San Francisco was down 20.5% on a year-over-year basis (198 transactions in 2007 versus 249 transactions in 2006).

At the same time, the sales volume for single family homes in San Francisco was up 27.7% as compared to the month prior (155 transactions in September 2007). And the question remains, did the mortgage meltdown in August simply delay purchases/closings (which would have pushed September volume into October), or is sales activity in San Francisco actually picking up? And of course, what's going on with condominiums?

Editor's Note: We're still on the hunt for the October sales volume for San Francisco condominiums and prematurely published the total sales volume this morning. Appologies for any confusion (and please let us know if you have the official condo stats).

∙ Single Family Homes Sales By District: October '06 vs. October '07 (pdf) [realtownblogs]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (23) | (email story)

JustQuotes: The Foreclosure Spillover, Symptom Or Subterfuge?

"The losses (from foreclosures) are extending to neighbors and to entire communities," said Martin Eakes, chief executive of the Durham, N.C., Center for Responsible Lending, which released the survey on Tuesday. "The spillover effect is disturbing because we've only just begun to see the foreclosures."

"Foreclosures aren't causing prices to fall - it's a symptom of the whole thing unraveling," [Christopher ] Thornberg said. "If you had no foreclosures at all, prices were still going to fall. (Foreclosures) may accelerate the process, but it's a process that has to happen one way or another because when you look at (home) prices relative to income, it's completely insane."

∙ Ripple effect of foreclosures touch entire communities [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

November 12, 2007

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index For San Francisco By Price Tier

While it’s still not the county level detail we’d all love to get our analytic little hand on, Standard & Poor’s has started publishing its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices by price tiers.

Each tier represents approximately one-third of the number of sales transactions recorded in each respective market. For example, for each market, Standard & Poor’s defines low, medium and high by defining breakpoints in one- third intervals for all sales found at each point in time. The methodology looks at the first sale in a given sale pair to define the price level.

Two things that caught our attention: the divergence in the performance of properties between price tiers in general (which shouldn't catch anybody that's plugged-in by surprise); and the time at which the divergence occurred in specific (easy money anyone?).

And while tempting, we wouldn't go so far as to assume the top third is a better proxy for San Francisco as a whole.

UPDATE: And we somehow managed to forget our standard S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ S&P Publishes Low-, Mid- and High Price Homes Indices (pdf) [S&P]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (38) | (email story)

November 5, 2007

The Fortune Forecast For Where Home Prices (And Rents) Are Headed

As a plugged-in reader notes, Fortune Magazine looks at historic Price to Rent ratios (pages 76-88) across 54 major metropolitan areas in an attempt to forecast where home prices are headed.

In most markets people won’t lay out much more in monthly costs to own a house or condo than they would to rent a similar property unless they expect a huge profit when they sell. Indeed, speculators chasing quick profits did a lot to inflate the recent bubble. But once the fervor fades, prices must fall to restore their normal, long-term relationship with rents. Rents exercise a kind of inevitable gravitational pull on prices. The ratio of prices to rents “behave much like price/earning rations for stocks,” says Yale economist Robert Shiller. “Like P/Es, price-to-rent ratios are mean-reverting.” In other words, while prices soar from time to time, sending the ration to exceptional heights, sooner or later the relationship is bound to return to its historical average.

Of course, rather than prices falling rents can rise. And while Fortune forecasts a 28.3% correction in the Price to Rent ratio over the next five years for the San Francisco MSA, they’re forecasting it's derived from a 10% drop in prices along with an 18% increase in rents. Over in the East Bay, however, the Fortune forecast is a bit more grim as they're calling for a 38.1% correction driven mainly by price declines of >30%.

And of course, the concept of a housing P/E (and rising rents) shouldn't catch any plugged-in readers by surprise.

∙ Real Estate: Buy, Sell, or Hold? (Pages 76-88) [Fortune Magazine]
∙ Not The “P” But The “E” [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (179) | (email story)

October 30, 2007

August S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: San Francisco MSA Falls (But Less)

According to the August 2007 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA slipped 4.2% year-over-year and fell 0.2% from July '07 to August '07. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 4.9% (down 0.7% from May).

The standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The HPI only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ Further Weakening in Home Prices According to the S&P/Case-Shiller® HPI (pdf) [S&P]
∙ July S&P/Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco MSA Continues Decline [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

October 29, 2007

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 10/29

San Francisco’s inventory of Active single-family, condo, and TIC listings fell 1.2% over the past two weeks (as would be expected). At the same time, and for the first time in at least five months, the number of active listings in San Francisco is nominally higher (1.1%) versus the same time last year (as might not be expected).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 10/15 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (86) | (email story)

October 24, 2007

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall 8% (And Yes, It Might Matters To You)

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell 8% in September (19% year-over-year) and the median price paid fell 4.2% compared to September 2006. And while some might point to a national slump as a macro trend that’s irrelevant to us in the micro San Francisco (no slight intended), any drag on the macro economy (think a potential slowdown in consumer spending) will most definitely have an impact on the Bay Area.

Stricter lending standards and higher borrowing costs are making it more difficult to qualify for loans, causing an increase in the number of unsold properties and pulling prices down. Some economists say falling home values, by making owners feel less wealthy, may reduce consumer spending.

"The credit freeze in August definitely impacted sales in September," said Lawrence Yun, a senior economist at the [National Association of Realtors]. The negative influence was greater on jumbo loans, or loans larger than $417,000, affecting high- priced areas such as California, Yun said.

The good news? Another rate cut by the Fed is looking even more likely (think mortgage rates). The bad news? Another rate cut by the Fed is looking even more likely (think our weakening dollar).

And while some might take solace in Goldman Sachs’ chief U.S. economist’s quote that “[e]xisting home sales are still not particularly low by historic standards,” don’t forget the punch line: “Housing still has a lot of weakness ahead of it.”

∙ U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall More Than Forecast [Bloomberg]
∙ Dollar Falls Against Yen on Home Sales Decline, Merrill Loss [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (84) | (email story)

JustQuotes: Will The Effects Ripple, Or Will They Be “Contained?”

“Pointing to a map of ACORN's research showing the hardest hit areas in San Francisco - Ocean View, Bayview, Visitacion Valley, Excelsior - Quezada said she believed lenders and mortgage brokers targeted the area's most vulnerable borrowers.”

∙ 4,800 subprime Bay Area loans at risk of foreclosure by 2008 [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

October 18, 2007

San Francisco's Sales Volume Falls, Broader Bay Area Plummets

According to DataQuick, sales volume (i.e., demand) for existing homes in San Francisco fell 17.3% on a year-over-year basis last month (469 sales in September ’07 versus a revised 567 sales in September ’06) and fell 18.7% compared to the month prior (577 recorded sales in August ‘07). At the same time, the median sales price in September was $773,500, up 1.9% compared to a revised September ’06 ($759,000) but down 5.9% compared to the month prior. (And yes, we’re still thinking mix.)

For the greater Bay Area, sales volume in September was down 40.1% on a year-over-year basis (and no, that's not a typo) and fell 31.3% from the month prior (5,014 recorded sales in September '07 versus a revised 8,374 in September ’06 and 7,299 this past August). The recorded median sales price also fell from the month prior (4.6%), but was up a nominal 0.8% on a revised year-over-year basis.

The number of Bay Area homes purchased with jumbo mortgages dropped from 3,762 in August to 1,935 in September, a decline of 48.6 percent. A jumbo mortgage is a home loan for $417,000 or more. For loans below that threshold, the sales decline was 14.0 percent, from 2,675 in August to 2,301 in September. Historically, sales drop by about 10 percent from August to September.

Outside of San Francisco county, the smallest drop in year-over-year sales volume was recorded in Marin (down 32.5%) and the largest in Contra Costa (down 48.7%).

∙ Bay Area home sales plummet amid mortgage woes [DQNews]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (66) | (email story)

October 16, 2007

Foreshadowing A Fall For Northern California? Or Forecasting Folly?

According to DataQuick sales volume plunged last month in Southern California “to the lowest level in more than two decades, as financing with "jumbo" mortgages dropped by half.” And when we (or they) say plunged, we (or they) mean down 29.9% month-over-month, and down 48.5% year-over-year.

And while we’ll have DataQuick’s official September tally for San Francisco (and the greater Bay Area) in the morning, and one plugged-in reader's calculations would suggest that September's transaction volume dropped close to 30% year-over-year, we’re giving you 24 21 hours to go on record with a forecast of your own.

UPDATE (10/17): It looks as though DataQuick won't be releasing their Bay Area numbers until tomorrow (and you have another 18 hours to go on record with your forecasts).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 10/15 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Sales Activity: Reported Sales Volume Takes A Little Hit [SocketSite]
∙ September Southland home sales lowest in more than 20 years [DQNews]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

JustQuotes: Horton Hears A Who And A Where (Are The Buyers)

"D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. homebuilder, said orders in the fiscal fourth quarter plunged [39%] to the lowest in almost six years as customer cancellations soared [up to 48% from 38%] and banks restricted lending."

“The reduced availability of certain mortgage products such as Alt-A loans and tighter underwriting guidelines has reduced the pool of available homebuyers.”

“More than 90 percent of D.R. Horton's buyers used fixed rate mortgages for their purchase and 14 percent had Alt-A financing, the report said. Less than 1 percent were subprime borrowers, UBS said in the Sept. 24 report. Alt-A mortgages are available to borrowers with good credit who generally cannot or choose not to verify their income.”

∙ D.R. Horton Orders Fall to Lowest in Almost Six Years [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

October 15, 2007

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 10/15

New listings continued to outnumber new sales over the past two weeks in San Francisco as inventory of Active single family, condo, and TIC listings increased 3.4% (and has closed to within 1% of last year’s levels).

And as winter months are typically characterized by a general slow down in activity (both sales and new listings) along with the withdrawal of listings by those under no pressure to sell, we’ll be watching inventory levels over the next couple of months for any early signs of increased urgency in the market.

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 10/1/07 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (27) | (email story)

October 10, 2007

NAR's Monthly Moving Target (October Edition)

For the eight month in a row, the National Association of Realtors has lowered their annual sales forecast for existing homes across the nation. And the latest forecast now calls for an 11 percent drop in sales (down from 8.6% last month). At the same time, however, the median existing home price is now forecast to drop only 1.3 percent (versus last month’s forecast of a 1.7 percent decline).

“The forecasts signal the housing decline is deepening and the market isn't recovering. Mortgage lenders such as Countrywide Financial Corp., the largest, and Wells Fargo & Co., the second-biggest, have raised standards in reaction to a surge of foreclosures, Donald Kohn, Federal Reserve vice chairman, said in an Oct. 5 speech in Philadelphia.”

∙ U.S. Existing Home Sales May Drop to Five-Year Low [Bloomberg]
∙ JustQuotes: NAR's Monthly Moving Target (September Edition) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (43) | (email story)

October 9, 2007

Those Damn Neighbors: The Bridgeview (And Bank Owned) Edition

400 Beale #1501 has been on the market for a little over a month. Advertising the largest 2 bedroom, 2 bath floor plan at the Bridgeview and a “huge final price reduction” of $24,000 (2.4%), it’s currently listed at $975,000.

Enter 400 Beale #1201. It’s the same largest floor plan as #1501 (albeit three floors below). It’s another bank owned (REO) condo in the Bridgeview (no, not Bayview). And it’s now on the market for $825,000.

And while it appears that #1201 might be tenant occupied (which could affect the price), and those three floors do make a difference on the Bay (but not necessarily bridge) views, we're still calling it a concerning comp (but not quite a troubling trend).

∙ Listing: 400 Beale #1201 (2/2) - $825,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 400 Beale #1501 (2/2) - $975,000 [MLS]
∙ The SocketSite Scoop On That Short Sale In Rincon Hill [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (43) | (email story)

October 2, 2007

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index Falls

Citing mortgage woes, the National Association of Realtors reports that their forward-looking national Pending Home Sales Index (based on signed contracts) fell 6.5 percent from July to August and is down 21.5 percent year-over-year. In the West, the Index fell 2.7 percent and is down 27.1 percent as compared to August 2006.

“The impact was greater in high-cost markets that are more dependent on jumbo mortgages. In some areas, as much as 30 percent of signed contracts were falling through in August when the credit crunch problem peaked,” [NAR senior economist] Yun said. “The problem has since become less severe, though jumbo loan rates are still higher than they would be under normal conditions. Therefore, sales activity in late fall will better reflect market fundamentals.”

We're not exactly sure what "normal conditions" may be (and if anything would argue that the past few years have been anything but), but we do understand fundamentals (a return to which might not be such a great thing for the market).

And citing mortgage woes of thier own, today Morgan Stanley announced a 25% reduction in “residential mortgage origination and servicing jobs.” Which isn't a great thing for 600.

∙ Mortgage Problems Continue to Hamper Pending Home Sales [realtor.org]
∙ Morgan Stanley Cuts 600 Jobs in Home Loan Business [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

October 1, 2007

The Next Era In San Francisco’s Development: It’s All About Density

Going green might be trendy (and we’re all for it), but as far as we’re concerned it’s a focus on density (and infill) that will define the next era in San Francisco’s development, neighborhoods, and lifestyle.

Speaking of (or on) which, David Baker will be delivering a "Better Living Through Density" lecture next Monday (10/8/07 @ 7pm) at the California College of The Arts (Timken Lecture Hall, 1111 Eighth Street, San Francisco).

Denser neighborhoods are more active, more interesting, safer places that support local retail and services and foster community. But what makes urban housing beautiful and functional for residents and neighborhood alike? David Baker will describe—using some of his own work as examples—the components of good urban design, including active pedestrian edges, the hierarchy of open spaces, sensible parking strategies, and sustainable approaches that make higher densities better for all.

It’s free, no RSVP is required, and additional information is available by phone (415.703.9562) or email (architecture@cca.edu).

∙ California College of the Arts: Calendar of Events [CCA]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (91) | (email story)

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 10/1/07

New listings continued to outnumber new sales over the past two weeks in San Francisco as inventory of Active single family, condo, and TIC listings increased 5.2% (and has closed to within 3% of last year’s levels).

At the same time, we are starting to see the seasonal withdrawal of unsold listings and a quarter of all Active listings have been reduced in price at least once (versus a fifth at the same point in time last year). And while condos represented 60% of the reduced inventory on October 1, 2006, as of this morning they represented less than half (by 1%).

∙ SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/17/07 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (53) | (email story)

September 28, 2007

JustQuotes: Don’t Shoot (But Feel Free To Debate) The Messenger(s)

“A recession within the next 12 months is likely and its impact on the Bay Area will be "sharp but short" due to the area's strong economic underpinnings, according to a new forecast.”

“A recession will be brought on by slowing consumer spending prompted by a cooling housing market, said economist Jon Haveman. "People who have seen their house values rise 10 to 15 percent annually have been spending accordingly," he said. The Bay Area housing market is overpriced and Haveman expects prices to drop by as much as 20 percent by 2009 before stabilizing.”

“While the forecast, presented to business executives this month, predicts a relatively short recessionary period, there are risks to the local economy. Among them is the commercial real estate market, Haveman said.

Low interest rates allowed unprecedented speculation on office space. If lease rates dip, that could trigger an unraveling of mortgage-backed securities in the commercial market, the forecast said. "The same excesses in the mortgage markets have also been seen in commercial markets," Haveman said.” (Bay Area may be in for short, sharp shock)

Posted by socketadmin at 2:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

September 27, 2007

JustQuotes: The Bigger Picture Is Looking A Bit Bleak

“Fannie Mae Chief Executive Officer Daniel Mudd said the [national] housing slump will last beyond next year, dragging down home prices and increasing credit losses at the largest provider of financing for U.S. mortgages. ‘We don't think we hit a bottom until the end of '08 and then we have some period of time to work our way back up again,’ Mudd said today in an interview in Washington.”

“Sales of new homes in the U.S. dropped more than forecast in August and prices plunged by the most since 1970, underscoring the Federal Reserve's concern about the broader economy. Purchases declined 8.3 percent to an annual pace of 795,000, the lowest level in more than seven years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median price dropped 7.5 percent from a year ago.”

“Sales fell in two of four regions. The decline was led by a 21 percent slump in the West and a 15 percent drop in the South. Purchases increased 42 percent in the Northeast and 21 percent in the Midwest.”

∙ Housing Slump to Last Beyond 2008, Fannie's Mudd Says [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. Economy: New-Home Sales Decline 8.3 Percent [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

September 26, 2007

Which Five Years Will The Next Five Years More Likely Resemble?

213 Moulton is a contemporary single-family home situated down a little alley in Cow Hollow. It first sold for $545,000 in 1995. And ten years later (in 2005) it changed hands for $1,672,000. No doubt about it, that's fantastic long-term appreciation. Then again, it also changed hands in the year 2000 for $1,600,000.

We only mention it now as 215 Moulton (part of the same three home development) has been on the market for a month and has recently reduced its list price $145,000 (or 7.3%). They’re now asking $1,850,000 which includes a new full bath (added in 2006) and reclaimed living space on the ground floor.

∙ Listing: 215 Moulton (3/3.5) - $1,850,000 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (17) | (email story)

September 25, 2007

July S&P/Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco MSA Continues Decline

And speaking of the S&P/Case-Shiller index (and no, that wasn't a coincidence), according to the July 2007 index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA slipped 4.1% year-over-year and fell 0.4% from June '07 to July '07. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 4.5% (down 0.5% from May).

The standard SocketSite footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller index only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ They're Betting Against San Francisco On The CME [SocketSite]
∙ Summer Swoon Evident in the S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices (pdf) [S&P]
∙ June S&P/Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco MSA Mimics U.S. Decline [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

They're Betting Against Us (San Francisco) On The CME

It was a little over a year ago (May 2006) that housing futures based on the S&P/Case-Shiller index for ten Major Metropolitan Areas (as well as a ten city composite) began trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). And it was last week that the market was expanded to include contracts of up to five years in duration.

A few important things to keep in mind: liquidity and open interest in the CME housing markets are painfully low; the “San Francisco” index includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda counties; and the index is based on changes of single-family home values (and not condos). That being said, the market does represent real traders betting real money on movements in the local housing market.

And what say the traders about the San Francisco MSA? Well, as of today traders on the CME are betting home values in the San Francisco will drop almost 7% over the next year; 14% over the next two; and a total of 24% over the next four (down roughly 7% a year). And that’s the second to worst four-year performance of any of the ten markets (with traders betting that Miami will drop 25%).

Again, it’s a thinly traded market with significant bid/ask spreads (especially on the longer duration contracts), and it’s not specific to “San Francisco” county. But these are real dollars at work. It is another data point worth watching (if not for magnitude, then at least for direction). And yes, we'll keep you plugged-in.

∙ Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Housing [CME]
∙ CME Group Extends Offerings of S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Contracts [CME]
∙ June S&P/Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco MSA Mimics U.S. Decline [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (34) | (email story)

September 19, 2007

841 Webster Returns: And Perhaps It's Now “Priced to Rent!”

As a tipster notes, 841 Webster (which failed to sell at $989,000 despite four months on the market, a total of $310,000 in reductions, and advertising “Priced to Sell!”) has returned to the market as a rental. And according to craigslist, they're looking for $4,950 a month. We’ll just let you run the numbers (and debate that little note of NOPA).

∙ $4950 / 3br - Remodeled Victorian Flat...(alamo square / nopa) [craigslist]
∙ What’s Moving (Or Not) And For How Much (Or Little): Withdrawn [SocketSite]
∙ Betting On A Bidding War? (Once Again) [SocketSite]
∙ To Rent Or To Buy, That Is The Question (That Only You Can Answer) [SocketSite]
∙ And Like There’s Any Chance We Could Resist (700 Broderick) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

Bay Area Up But San Francisco Down (And That’s A Good Thing)

According to the Chronicle (and RealtyTrac), while "Bay Area foreclosure activity skyrockets” in August, notices of default and trustee sales actually decreased on a year over year basis in San Francisco. And while foreclosure activity remains relatively insignificant right here (at least right now), we’ll keep you plugged-in should that start to change.

∙ Bay Area foreclosure activity skyrockets [SFGate]
∙ Bay Area “Notices Of Default” Heading North? (So To Speak) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

September 17, 2007

SocketSite's San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/17/07

The post Labor Day bump in Active single family, condo, and TIC listings in San Francisco has materialized as expected (up 24% over the past two weeks). And while listed housing inventory is off by 5.4% on a year-over-year basis, we'll note that reduced listings are up 29% and reported sales volume was down 13.8% in August (again, year-over-year).

Quantitative comparisons aside, we’ll also note a distinct difference in the quality of listings (as in higher now) versus a year ago as well. And yes, that's subjective.

∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/04/07 [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Sales Activity: Reported Sales Volume Takes A Little Hit [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (31) | (email story)

September 13, 2007

San Francisco Sales Activity: Reported Sales Volume Takes A Little Hit

According to DataQuick, the sales volume (i.e., demand) for existing homes in San Francisco was down 13.8% year-over-year (577 sales in August ’07 versus a revised 669 sales in August ’06) but was up 2.3% compared to the month prior (564 recorded sales in July ‘07). At the same time, the median sales price in August was $822,000, up 7.8% compared to a revised August ’06 ($762,500) and up 2.9% compared to the month prior. (And yes, we'd continue to think mix.)

For the greater Bay Area, sales volume was down 24.9% year-over-year (7,299 recorded sales last month versus a revised 9,713 in August ’06) while the recorded median sales price was $655,000 (down from $665,00 the month prior but up 4.0% on a revised year-over-year basis).

Sales have decreased on a year-over-year basis the last 31 months. Sales last month were the lowest for any August since 1992 when 6,688 homes were sold. The strongest August in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988, was in 2004 when 13,940 homes were sold. The August average is 10,170.

At the extremes, Solano recorded a 9.7% year-over-year reduction in median sales price (on 42.7% fewer sales) while Marin recorded a 12.4% year-over-year gain (on 34.3% fewer sales). And sales volume continued to fall (off 35.6%) in Contra Costa county.

∙ Bay Area home sales slowest since early 1990s, flat prices [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Sales Activity: Volume And Median Prices Up [SocketSite]
∙ JustQuotes: Apparently They’re Building More Land In Contra Costa [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (48) | (email story)

September 12, 2007

A Few More Forecasts (And Data Points) For Your Consideration

Rounding out a few of the recent real estate forecasts, Mark Zandi, co- founder of Moody's Economy.com in New York “forecasts a decline of 3 percent in the last quarter of this year and subsequent drops of 4 percent to 6 percent for the following three quarters” in the San Francisco Bay Area.

While a bit closer to home, Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California in Berkeley declares “no place will be immune” and forecasts “[h]ome prices will decline 5 percent to 10 percent from last year's peak in New York and San Francisco” based on increased supply, decreased demand, and a psychological shift (to the negative). No place? No kidding.

∙ New York, California Metro Home Prices May Decline [Bloomberg]
∙ JustQuotes: Parsing The UCLA Anderson Forecast For The Bay Area [SocketSite]
∙ JustQuotes: NAR's Monthly Moving Target (September Edition) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

September 11, 2007

JustQuotes: NAR's Monthly Moving Target (September Edition)

“The organization today cut its forecast for the ninth time this year and said existing home sales will fall 8.6 percent in 2007. That's more than the 6.8 percent drop forecast a month ago. New-home sales will probably drop 24 percent on top of an 18 percent decline in 2006, the Chicago-based group said.”

“For the year, the median resale price probably will slip 1.7 percent to $218,200, the Realtors' forecast said. That would be the first national decline since the Great Depression in the 1930s, according to Yun. [The new-home median selling price probably will dip 2.2 percent to $241,100...]”

"There's been an unusual hit to home sales, starting in March when subprime problems emerged and more recently when problems spread to jumbo loans,'' Lawrence Yun, an economist for the group, said in the forecast."

“About 14 percent of domestic banks have raised standards for mortgages to their best-rated customers and 56 percent have made it more difficult for people with limited or poor credit to get loans, according to a Federal Reserve survey of senior loan officers in mid-July.”

∙ Housing Slump Will Extend Into 2008 in Loan Crisis [Bloomberg]
∙ JustQuotes: NAR's Monthly Moving Target (August Edition) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (28) | (email story)

September 10, 2007

JustQuotes: Apparently They’re Building More Land In Contra Costa

"Anybody who could breathe got a loan," [Realtor Cecily Tippery] said. "They had low entry rates and financed to the max. Everyone was betting the market would continue to increase so they could refinance into a new loan."

Instead, real estate values sagged in the overbuilt areas. Homeowners could not refinance because they didn't have equity. The net result was a wave of people unable to make escalating mortgage payments, who wound up in foreclosure. In Contra Costa County, 1,287 homes were lost to foreclosure from January through June of this year. Within Tippery's six-city territory (Antioch, Pittsburg, Byron, Discovery Bay, Oakley and Brentwood), she said there are 566 foreclosed properties for sale.

The properties also illustrate how quickly prices skyrocketed and then collapsed. One five-bedroom Brentwood home was purchased about three years ago for $850,000 and appraised at $1 million within a year of that. "Now I'm having a hard time getting it sold at $650,000," she said.”

∙ Realtor specializes in selling foreclosed homes [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

September 7, 2007

From Rumor To Reality: Up To 12,000 Layoffs At Countrywide

It was two days ago that “ex SF-er” commented: “Rumor alert: Countrywide may be laying off 6,000 to 10,000 employees.”

And it was but less than two hours ago that Countrywide announced possible workforce cuts of between 10,000 and 12,000 people over the next three months. The culprit, a sharp drop in expected demand: “New mortgages probably will drop 25 percent in 2008 from this year's levels, the Calabasas, California-based company said in a statement today.”

And no, perhaps not entirely unexpected.

∙ What Happens When It’s Time To Fund? We’ll Have To Wait And See [SocketSite]
∙ Countrywide May Cut Staff by 12,000 as Demand Wanes [Bloomberg]
∙ U.S. Economy: Employment Unexpectedly Drops in August [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (21) | (email story)

JustQuotes: Yesterday’s News But Still Worth A Mention Today

"Lehman, the biggest underwriter of U.S. bonds backed by home loans, and National City, Ohio's largest bank, announced the dismissals [850 and 1,300 people respectively] less than a day after 900 people were cut by Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage firm."

"The bulk of the firings at New York-based Lehman will be at Aurora Loan Services LLC, the U.S. unit that makes so-called Alt- A loans to borrowers whose credit ratings fall just short of standards for regular prime mortgages."

"Countrywide said in an e-mailed statement late yesterday that it cut 900 jobs as demand for home loans waned at the Calabasas, California-based company."

∙ Lehman Brothers, National City Cut Jobs as More Home Loans Sour [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

September 5, 2007

JustQuotes: NAR's National Pending Home Sales Index Plunges

"The National Association of Realtors' index for pending sales of existing homes decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 12.2% to 89.9 in July from June's 102.4, the industry group said Wednesday. The NAR index, based on signed contracts for previously owned homes, was 16.1% below the level of July 2006."

"In a news release, the NAR said the index shows existing-home sales are likely to decline in coming months as mortgage disruptions work through the housing market. "It's difficult to fully account for mortgage disruptions in the index, and our members are telling us some sales contracts aren't closing because mortgage commitments have been falling through at the last moment," NAR senior economist Lawrence Yun said."

"These temporary problems are primarily with jumbo loans, and there are continuing issues for subprime borrowers, but there are no serious problems for the majority of buyers who qualify for conventional financing or FHA-insured loans," Mr. Yun said. "Some consumer concerns remain, but since mid-August the market has been stabilizing somewhat."

"By region, the Northeast decreased 12.2% in July from June; it fell 10.0% from a year earlier. The Midwest decreased 13.1% in July from June; it fell 15.8% from last year. The South dropped 6.6% in July from June; it tumbled 15.2% since July 2006. The West decreased 20.8% in July from June; it fell 21.8% from a year earlier."

∙ Pending-Home Sales Decline 12% [WSJ]
∙ July pending home sales index falls 12.2% [Marketwatch]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

September 4, 2007

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 9/04/07

Listed housing inventory in San Francisco dipped slightly (4.5%) over the past two weeks in a typical pre-Labor Day slowdown and is currently running just 3.1% (or 36 listings) below 2006 levels.

Once again, listed inventory continues to run at roughly two months of supply (based on September 2006 sales volumes) which isn't too atypical for San Francisco (but continues to represent less than half of all units that are currently competing for buyers in the city).

And yes, we fully expect to see a post-Labor Day bump in listings (and slow down in sales).

∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 8/13/07 [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (CII): Q3 2007 (SF) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (22) | (email story)

August 30, 2007

OFHEO: U.S. House Prices Don't Fall (But Do In CA And The SF MSA)

The good news: according to the OFHEO, home prices in the United States increased 3.19% year over year in the second quarter of 2007 (many had predicted a historic drop).

The not so good news: OFHEO reported home prices dropped 1.38% year over year in California (only Michigan and Nevada recorded higher declines) and .86% in the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City MSAD (versus a 1.32% year over year gain in Q1).

U.S. home prices increased only slightly in the second quarter of 2007 according to the OFHEO House Price Index (HPI). The HPI, which is based on data from sales and refinance transactions, was 0.1 percent higher in the second quarter than in the first quarter of 2007. This is below the revised growth rate of 0.6 percent for the previous quarter and the lowest since the fourth quarter of 1994. Prices in the second quarter of 2007 were 3.2 percent higher than they were in the same quarter of 2006, the lowest annual price change since the 1996-97 period.

“House prices were basically flat in the second quarter despite tightening credit policies, rising foreclosure rates, and weakening buyer sentiment,” said [OFHEO Director] Lockhart. “Significant price declines appear localized in areas with weak economies or where price increases were particularly dramatic during the housing boom.”

That being said, do keep in mind that "[t]he data in this release only include price information through June. To the extent that recent mortgage market instability may have affected housing demand and prices, those effects would be evident in OFHEO’s next HPI release." (Yes, we'll keep you plugged-in.)

And once again, the HPI is based on data from repeat single-family home sales, or refinancings, that involve conforming mortgages (under $417,000). Data from transactions involving either condominiums or non-conforming loans (two major components in the San Francisco market) are excluded from the Index.

∙ OFHEO: U.S. House Prices Slow (pdf) [OFHEO]
∙ OFHEO First Quarter Report: 0.35% Appreciation For SF MSAD [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (30) | (email story)

August 29, 2007

San Francisco Household Incomes Up In 2006

According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau survey, household incomes in San Francisco are indeed up. In 2006 the median household income in San Francisco was $65,497 (up 13.9% over 2005) with an average of $92,477 (up 10.9% over 2005). And in 2006, 9.2% of San Francisco households made over $200,000 (the rough minimum required to qualify for a $600,000 mortgage based upon conventional standards).

Posted by socketadmin at 12:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (75) | (email story)

They’re Back In The Saddle Again (And With More Frequency)

It’s really nothing new. Properties fall out of escrow (and are reduced) all the time. We does appear to be new, however, is the relative frequency with which it is occurring.

∙ 1674 Hayes (3/2) - $825,000 (“Back on market - no fault of property”)
∙ 2676 21st Street (2/1) - $699,000 (“No fault of property the offer fell through”)
∙ 547 35th Avenue (3/1) - $888,800 (“Back on market !!!”)
∙ 674 Campbell Avenue (3/2) - $688,000 (“Back on market - no fault [of] sellers”)
∙ 247 Sagamore (5/2) - $699,000 (“Back on market. No fault on sellers”)
∙ 22 Chicago Way (2/1) - $689,000 (“3 failed 100% financing. Price reduced”)

Yes, it’s definitely hitting the lower end of the market the hardest. (Or is that first?) And no, the six listings above aren’t intended to be MECE. (Well, at least not CE.) Regardless, and once again, we do have to wonder: is it another blip, bump, or more in the making?

∙ JustQuotes: Is This A Blip, A Bump, Or More In The Mortgage Market? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (43) | (email story)

August 28, 2007

June S&P/Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco MSA Mimics U.S. Decline

According to the May 2007 S&P/Case-Shiller index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA slipped 4.0% year-over-year and fell 0.7% from May '07 to June '07. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 4.1% (down 0.5% from May).

The standard SocketSite footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller index only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ U.S. National Home Price Index Posts a Record Annual Decline (pdf) [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ May S&P/Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco MSA Continues Decline [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (48) | (email story)

August 23, 2007

A Few Points From A Local Mortgage Banker (No, Not “Blogger”)

Julian Hebron, mortgage banker and branch manager for the San Rafael office of Residential Pacific Mortgage, submits a copy of his most recent MarketWeek report (“Ride The Storm”) for review. Not too surprisingly Julian notes the Fed Discount Rate cut as well as the shuttering of Capital One’s GreenPoint mortgage (in Marin). What might be a bit more surprising (at least to some) are his following two points:

WHEN WILL MARKETS IMPROVE?
The Fed’s Discount Rate cut plus their infusion of about $80 billion into the banking system has prevented an all-out market meltdown, but results are muted so far because there’s still a lot of bad mortgage and investment debt in the financial system. It will take weeks or months for this to unwind – with more volatility and more company closures.

Meanwhile, new mortgage originations based on tighter approval standards will create a new wave of good quality Jumbo loans above $417k that investors will buy, securitize and trade. Rebuilding a robust mortgage securities market could take as long as 24 months because tighter guidelines will cut down the pool of eligible borrowers.

HIGHER RATES = LOWER PRICES
Home buyers, like any investors, often get nervous when markets are stormy. But this is the time to really pay attention. Higher mortgage rates mean lower property prices, and as I illustrated explicitly in my most recent client newsletter, the financial benefit of a lower purchase prices [sic] far outweighs the higher rate.

The math on this theory overwhelmingly proves the case in short- and long-term scenarios. It will become more important to use this formula for evaluating decisions in the coming months. If you need a copy of this article or need to have me run an example for you, please let me know.

The mortgage market recovery won't be quick and without more pain? Fewer eligible borrowers? Higher rates might lead to lower prices? Damn doom and gloom "bloggers!” Oh, wait a second…

[Editor's Note: Interesting yield curve on those Jumbos. And no, we haven't had an opportunity to check Julian's math (but we will).]

∙ MarketWeek 8/21/07: Ride The Storm (pdf) [Residential Pacific Mortgage]
∙ JustQuotes: Acknowledging “Downside Risks” To The Economy [SocketSite]
∙ JustQuotes: Upping The Underwriting Ante (And Industry Layoffs) [SocketSite]
∙ Revisiting The “Real-World” Impact Of Rising Rates On Home Values [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

August 22, 2007

JustQuotes: Is This A Blip, A Bump, Or More In The Mortgage Market?

“FBR Research said on Wednesday that $150 billion to $250 billion of permanent capital is needed to normalize pricing in the depressed market for mortgage-backed securities.

However, in a note to clients, the research arm of securities firm Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co Inc said the process would take up to a year and will be painful for mortgage investors and originators. FBR Research said the new capital is needed to compensate for the massive "deleveraging" underway among companies that hold mortgages.

More than $20 billion worth of mortgage bonds not backed by mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac [Editor’s Note: think Jumbo] have been offered for sale in the past few days.

Mortgage investors increasingly question the underlying value of mortgage-backed securities given that orginators' lax lending standards which led to a jump in defaults. Also, many economists expect weak home prices to drop further."

∙ Mortgage mkt needs up to $250 bln of capital [Reuters]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (23) | (email story)

August 21, 2007

JustQuotes: Higher Rates For the Vast Majority Of San Franciscans

"Some lawmakers are calling on Congress to stimulate the moribund jumbo-loan market by letting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchase substantially larger loans on homes in high-cost metro areas."

“As of Friday, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate jumbo loan was 7.36 percent, versus 6.64 percent on a conforming loan, according to HSH Associates. That difference - almost three-quarters of a percentage point - is about three times as wide as normal.”

“In the first half of this year, 62 percent of home-purchase mortgages in the Bay Area were jumbos. In San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin counties, about 78 percent were jumbos, DataQuick reports.”

∙ Fannie, Freddie could help to stimulate jumbo mortgage loans [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (46) | (email story)

August 16, 2007

Quicklinks: Countrywide “Materially Tightens" Underwriting Standards

"As we have previously discussed, secondary market demand for non-agency mortgage-backed securities has been disrupted in recent weeks," said [Countrywide] President and Chief Operating Officer. "Along with reduced liquidity in the secondary market, funding liquidity for the mortgage industry has also become constrained.”

"Furthermore, as a result of lessened liquidity for loans which are not eligible for delivery to the GSEs [Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac], Countrywide has materially tightened its underwriting standards for such loans, and, we now expect that 90 percent of the loans we originate will be GSE-eligible or will meet our Bank's investment criteria.” (Countrywide Supplements Funding Liquidity Position)

∙ Corporate Bond Risk Rises as Bankruptcy, Default Fears Spread [Bloomberg]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (68) | (email story)

August 15, 2007

San Francisco Sales Activity: Volume And Median Prices Up

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $799,000 last month, up 3.1% compared to a revised July ’06 ($775,000) but down 3.2% compared to the month prior. More significantly, sales volume was up 4.1% year-over-year (564 sales in July ’07 versus a revised 542 sales in July ’06) but fell 10.9% compared to the month prior (633 recorded sales in June ‘07).

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in July was $665,000 (a revised year-over-year increase of 4.1%) and sales volume was 7,423 (down 12.4% from a revised 8,476 sales in July ’06). At the extremes, Solano recorded a 9.8% year-over-year reduction in median sales price (and 36.7% fewer sales) while Marin recorded a 13.9% year-over-year gain (on only 1.0% fewer sales), and year-over-year sales volume continued to drop in both Contra Costa (down 24.0%) and Napa (down 38.4%) counties.

∙ Bay Area home prices steady, slow sales [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco: Sales Metrics Moving In Different Directions (Again) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (21) | (email story)

August 13, 2007

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 8/13/07

While running 9.2% below 2006 levels, listed housing inventory in San Francisco increased 4.2% over the past two weeks as new listings outpaced new sales in San Francisco in a not-so-typical pre-Labor Day bump in new listings. At the same time, listed inventory continues to run at roughly two months of supply which isn't too atypical for San Francisco, but also continues to represent less than half of all units that are currently competing for buyers in the city.

∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (CII): Q3 2007 (SF) [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 7/31/07 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

August 9, 2007

Housing And Credit Concerns Abound (Here And Abroad)

While credit concerns once again rocked the equities market ("All the things that had been denied up until this point are unraveling. On top of this, retail sales were mediocre, which shows that indeed, the housing collapse is affecting the consumer.”), President Bush spoke out against federal bailouts for individual homeowners that have some concerns of their own (i.e., foreclosure). We note, however, a careful choice of words: "If you mean direct grants to homeowners, the answer would be `No, I don't support that.'"

UPDATE (8/10): And no, we weren't being flippant about "abroad."

∙ Stocks Fall; Dow Down 300 Points [SFGate]
∙ Bush: No Bailout for Pinched Homeowners [SFGate]
∙ U.S., European central banks step in to contain mortgage crisis [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (60) | (email story)

JustQuotes: No No-Doc? No Kidding (And Hopefully No Surprise)

“Kurt Herrenbruck, a mortgage planner with Fishman Financial Group in Berkeley, saw one client's financing evaporate in the space of three days last week.

"The client is well-heeled, with (a high credit score), and $500,000 in the bank, making an owner-occupied purchase with a 25 percent down payment," Herrenbruck said. "He needs a no-doc loan (meaning he cannot provide documents to prove his income) because of an employment hiccup."

Herrenbruck said Wednesday he found two lenders willing to make a no-document loan. But by Thursday it was down to one. And Friday, when his client's offer was accepted, there was none. "He can't buy even though he had the strongest profile of any no-doc: superlative credit, money in the bank and a whopping down payment."

∙ Mortgage crunch hits Bay Area hard because of jumbo loans [SFGate]
∙ JustQuotes: From Credit Crisis To Credit Squeeze To Credit Crunch? [SocketSite]
∙ JustQuotes, RandomRumors, And Readers Report: Alt-A All In One [SocketSite]
∙ JustQuotes: Forget Subprime In San Francisco, But How About Alt-A? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (43) | (email story)

August 6, 2007

JustQuotes: From Credit Crisis To Credit Squeeze To Credit Crunch?

“What had seemed like a contained problem, involving home loans to people with poor credit, has suddenly mushroomed into a rout that threatens to make life difficult for everyone who needs to borrow money.

Home buyers are likely to pay more for mortgages, and some with less-than-pristine credit or an inability to come up with a down payment may find they no longer can borrow at all.”

∙ The Loan Comes Due [New York Times]
∙ Housings Busts and Hedge Fund Meltdowns: A Spectator’s Guide [New York Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

August 3, 2007

A Few New Incentives For Both Buyers And Brokers In San Francisco

From a tipster: “On Wednesday, August 8, visit the Heritage on Fillmore to discover how to get your clients 2 years paid HOA Dues or $11,000 toward upgrades with the purchase of a new home [deals must be written by September 30, 2007]. And when you help your clients you'll also help yourself. The Heritage is now offering a 3.5% broker co-op!"

And yet another: “170 Off Third is excited to offer a 5.625% interest rate on all remaining two-bedroom residences! [Interest rate based on 7/1 ARM Interest Only and is fixed for seven years.]”

We’ll let you decide what they’re worth (to you). And what they mean (for the market).

∙ Heritage On Fillmore Official Update: Inventory And Restaurants [SocketSite]
∙ Odeon And 170 Off Third: A “Plugged In” Buyer’s Perspective [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (32) | (email story)

August 2, 2007

JustQuotes, RandomRumors, And Readers Report: Alt-A All In One

“At this time Wells Fargo...is no longer accepting Alt-A loans. Period. I also have CONFIRMATION that IndyMac is also tightening significantly: http://www.theimbreport.com. I have UNCONFIRMED reports that WaMu, BofA, and Wachovia are also significantly restricting Alt-A loans as of today.

Again, there will ALWAYS be some market for Alt-A and subprime...[b]ut it will be much more expensive to use those products. We are seeing more demand for down payments, more income verification, decreased loan amounts, etc. The days of 100% financing using IO or option ARMs at low rates [are] over. Some lenders will still offer 100% financing, some will still offer option ARMs or IO ARMs... but it will cost more.”

UPDATE: "Rumor modification -- I just checked with my Wells mortgage agent. He hadn't heard that they were no longer offering Alt-A. So I cruised some mortgage broker blogs. The rumor seems to be that Wells is no longer offering Alt-A's to brokers and correspondent banks, reserving them for their own branches instead."

∙ JustQuotes: Forget Subprime In San Francisco, But How About Alt-A? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (62) | (email story)

July 31, 2007

May S&P/Case-Shiller Index: San Francisco MSA Continues Decline

According to the May 2007 S&P/Case-Shiller index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA slipped 3.4% year-over-year and fell 0.3% from April '07 to May '07. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 3.4% (down 0.3% from April).

The (now) standard SocketSite footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller index only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ Late Spring Numbers Bring Chilly Returns (pdf) [Standard & Poor’s]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:49 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 7/31/07

Housing inventory in San Francisco has moved from a typical post-Memorial Day bump, to a typical pre-Labor Day slowdown as the number of Active listings in San Francisco dropped 1.6% over the past couple of weeks (and is running 18.3% below 2006 levels). That's roughly two months of supply (which isn't atypical for San Francisco).

At the same time, “listed” housing inventory continues to represent less than half of all units that are currently competing for buyers in San Francisco.

∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (CII): Q3 2007 (SF) [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 7/16/07 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

July 30, 2007

Eyes Wide Open: Looking For Lessons In Other’s Unfortunate Mistakes

SocketSite has never been about schadenfreude. At the same time, we've never shied away from asking and addressing the tough (and sometimes uncomfortable) questions. And yes, there are often lessons to be learned (or trends to be spotted) by observing other’s unfortunate mistakes.

Some observers say that many of those facing foreclosure should never have bought a house. To be sure, many consumers were seduced by the American dream of homeownership and so financially unsophisticated that they didn't apply due diligence. For Bay Area residents, more than a decade of consistently rising home prices may have led to a mob mentality of people overeager to jump into the real estate market, confident they would quickly gain equity.

Words we like: due diligence and financial sophistication (okay, and possibly seduction). Words we don't: mob mentality.

UPDATE: And not too surprisingly, the conversation quickly turns to borrower bailouts.

∙ Living The American Nightmare: Foreclosures On The Rise [SFGate]
∙ We Know You Can, But Will They? (Actually Accept It That Is) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (55) | (email story)

July 25, 2007

San Francisco Notices Of Default/Foreclosures Are Way Up (Sort Of)

We’re just going to pretty much parrot what we wrote three months ago: While a 102.4% year-over-year increase in San Francisco Q2 “Notice of Default” activity sounds quite dramatic, in absolute terms it still represents relatively few properties (257). Within the greater Bay Area, however, Contra Costa hit a record level of Q2 default activity (2,316 notices, up 219.4% year-over-year) as did Sacramento (3,840 notices, up 184.0% year-over-year). And Alameda isn’t too far behind (1,612 notices, up 148.4%).

According to DataQuick, “[m]ost of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between July 2005 and August 2006. The median age was 16 months. Loan originations peaked in August 2005. The use of adjustable-rate mortgages for primary purchase home loans peaked at 77.8% in May 2005 and has since fallen.”

And while the actual number of foreclosed upon homes in San Francisco jumped a whopping 444.4% last quarter (on a year-over-year basis), that represents a total of 49 properties (versus 9 in the second quarter of 2006). In Contra Costa, however, 778 homes were foreclosed upon last quarter (versus 62 in the second quarter of 2006).

Keep in mind that long-term interest rates remain near historic lows, and according to most, the Bay Area economy and stock market remain strong (and incomes are up).

UPDATE: As a reader notes below, some great perspective from the Chronicle with regard to the relative number of Bay Area defaults/foreclosures over the past twenty (or so) years. In summary: we’ve already surpassed the early 90’s.

∙ Bay Area “Notices Of Default” Heading North? (So To Speak) [SocketSite]
∙ California Foreclosure Activity Continues to Rise [DQNews]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (101) | (email story)

July 23, 2007

Apples To Apples Appreciation: A Data Point In Pacific Heights

Twenty (20) months ago 2760 Sacramento #3 was purchased for $827,000. Two months ago it was listed for sale at $849,000. And three days ago it closed escrow with a contract price of $840,000 (1.1% under asking).

That’ a $13,000 gain in value since November 2005. In other words, a compound annual growth rate (or "appreciation”) of a little under 1.0% a year for this condominium in Pacific Heights.

∙ We’ve Almost Got A Line (Another Data Point At 2760 Sacramento) [SocketSite]
∙ But Isn't The Median Sales Price Up? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (85) | (email story)

July 20, 2007

More 'Manhattanization' Of San Francisco: Paying More For Parking

It's a double parking whammy as underutilized downtown surface area parking lots are replaced by new housing developments with more people than parking spaces.

"Parking demand in San Francisco is rising daily," [City Park CEO Tim Leonoudakis] said. "The 'Manhattanization' of downtown parking will be complete with the opening of the residential towers in South of Market, which are all 'under parked.'"

Legislation passed last summer limits parking at new residential projects in the city's downtown to one space per every four units -- though developers can secure up to three spots for every four units under certain conditions.

Leonoudakis said most tenants need more than one space and that demand is not being satisfied on site. Tenants, he said, will overflow into the surrounding neighborhood and "that's going to impact commuter parking."

"There's a dynamic under way that we should all be paying attention to," he said. The issue has already gotten attention, in part due to a controversial measure to increase parking allotments all over the city that is likely to appear on the ballot in November.

The measure would boost the number of allowed spaces at new multi-unit residential projects downtown from a maximum to a minimum of three slots for every four units, according to Jim Ross, a political consultant who's running the campaign for the initiative. It would also increase parking to a minimum of one space for each new residential unit built outside of downtown, and "allows for but doesn't require" minimum numbers of spaces for new retail and other commercial projects, Ross said.”

And regardless of your position on this issue, there’s likely one thing on which we can all agree: the cost/value of parking in the city is going up. Now about those $225,000 parking spaces in Manhattan...

∙ S.F. parking in tight spot [Business Times]
∙ For Parking Space, the Price Is Right at $225,000 [New York Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (180) | (email story)

July 19, 2007

SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (CII): Q3 2007 (SF)

Once again, if you’re truly plugged-in you’re already familiar with SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (Cii) for San Francisco. But if you're not:

The goal of the Cii (pronounced “see”; we’re hoping Nintendo views it as flattery) is to paint a complete picture of housing inventory and new development in San Francisco; listed, unlisted, pipeline, and potential. In fact, we believe it represents a fundamental shift from the abstract to the tangible with regard to what’s in the works throughout San Francisco.

We’re now tracking the size, status, probability, and available inventory for nearly 200 new developments throughout San Francisco (20,000+ condominiums in total). And we’re keeping tabs on another 15,000+ “net new housing units” (including rental units) that are either proposed or on the drawing boards. All told, it's a potential inventory of 35,000+ housing units (i.e., the majority of San Francisco’s overall housing pipeline).

As it stands, in addition to the roughly 600 San Francisco condominiums (and 500 single family homes) that are listed and available for sale on the San Francisco MLS, we estimate that there are approximately 225 new condominiums that are not listed, but are currently available for purchase and occupancy. These condos include unlisted inventory in buildings ranging in size from 310 Townsend to The Palms.

We also estimate that there are currently an additional 1,150 condominiums that are actively competing for the attention of buyers and accepting non-refundable deposits in sales offices throughout San Francisco (examples include The Infinity, The Potrero, and The Hayes). And within the next six months, we expect to see an additional 1,000 condominiums begin marketing, accepting deposits, and competing for sales as well (think The Millennium, SF BLU, and Esprit Park).

Looking forward to 2008 we see an additional 2,000 new condominiums that are likely to start marketing/selling in the first half of the year (or relatively soon thereafter). And another 1,600+ that have a shot of making it to market in the second half of 2008. At the same time, keep in mind that at least 1,000 units have fallen out of the pipeline over the past six months (think 250 Brannan or Rincon Towers).

Beyond that (and for building by building updates) you’ll just have to keep plugging in.

∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (Cii) [SocketSite]
∙ 310 Townsend: Two New Listings, (At Least) One New Price [SocketSite]
∙ The Palms: Financing Incentives And Inventory Update [SocketSite]
∙ An Incomplete History Of Prices At The Infinity [SocketSite]
∙ The Potrero: South Building Sales (And Incentives) This Weekend [SocketSite]
∙ The Hayes (55 Page): A Plugged In Buyer’s Facts (And Opinion) [SocketSite]
∙ Millennium Tower: Sales Timeline, Additional Details And Renderings [SocketSite]
∙ 631 Folsom: Recently Christened “SF BLŪ” (And Down To 108 Units) [SocketSite]
∙ Esprit Park (900 Minnesota): The Website (Sales Office This Summer) [SocketSite]
∙ An Ode To Offices Or A Rethinking Of Residential? [SocketSite]
∙ Rincon Towers: From Apartments, To Condos, To Apartments [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

July 18, 2007

San Francisco: Sales Metrics Moving In Different Directions (Again)

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $825,000 last month, up 4.4% compared to a revised June ’06 ($790,000) but down 1.2% compared to the month prior. Sales volume, however, was down 10.2% year-over-year (633 sales in June ’07 versus a revised 705 sales in June ’06) but rose 2.8% compared to the month prior (616 recorded sales in May ‘07). And once again, think mix before jumping to too many conclusions.

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in June was $665,000 (a revised year-over-year increase of 2.6%) and sales volume was 7,964 (down 26.5% from a revised 10,830 sales in June ’06). At the extremes, Napa recorded a 15.2% year-over-year reduction in median sales price (and 34.4% fewer sales) while Marin recorded a 15.8% year-over-year gain (and 22.7% fewer sales), and year-over-year sales volume continued to plummet in both Contra Costa (down 32.8%) and Solano (down 41.4%) counties.

As was noted, and in another nod to mix: “Bay Area homes continued to sell at their slowest pace in 12 years last month, led by sharp declines in many lower-cost neighborhoods. At the same time, sales [volume] tended to fare much better in higher-priced areas, which helped push the region's overall median sale price to a new peak…”

∙ Bay Area home sales still slow, prices up [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Home Sales Drop, Median Sales Price Up (Enter Mix) [SocketSite]
∙ A Little Mix Here, A Little Mix There, Here A Mix, There A Mix... [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (21) | (email story)

July 16, 2007

San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: 7/16/07

While sales volume of single family homes, condos and TICs in San Francisco was running ~11% below 2006 levels in May, listed housing inventory is currently down ~18% on a year-over-year basis. A quarter of which (okay, so 24.3%) has been reduced at least once.

In terms of “official” listed inventory, that's right around two months. Of course there’s also a fair amount of “unofficial” (and unlisted) inventory to consider (and absorb) as well. And for those numbers you’ll just have to “plug in” tomorrow Wednesday Thursday for our third quarter Complete Inventory Index (Cii) and update for San Francisco.

∙ San Francisco Home Sales Drop, Median Sales Price Up (Enter Mix) [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (CII): Q1 2007 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

July 12, 2007

A Little Mix Here, A Little Mix There, Here A Mix, There A Mix...

It might be yesterday’s (or even last month’s) news that the upper-end of the market has remained relatively strong (and not only in San Francisco). And we won't disagree (other than with that "it’s a relative bargain" shtick).

At the same time, keep in mind that any reports of market “appreciation” (or even “depreciation”) that are based on a change in median sales price are now that much more suspect (if that's at all possible). And yes, that includes NAR's national numbers.

∙ Can’t Sell Your Home? Maybe It’s Priced Too Low [New York Times]
∙ JustQuotes: They Say Bifurcated, We Said Bipolar (A While Back) [SocketSite]
∙ NAR’s New New National Forecast (Yes, Another Little Cut) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

June 18, 2007

San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 6/18/07

Over the past two weeks new listings have outpaced new sales in San Francisco as listed housing inventory has increased ~11% in a typical post-Memorial Day bump. At the same time, listed inventory is currently running ~13% below 2006 levels.

∙ San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 6/01/07 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

June 14, 2007

San Francisco Home Sales Drop, Median Sales Price Up (Enter Mix)

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $835,000 last month, up 8.4% compared to a revised May ’06 ($770,000) and up 5.7% compared to the month prior (think mix). Sales volume, however, was down 10.9% year-over-year (616 sales in May ’07 versus a revised 691 sales in May ’06) but rose 8.5% compared to the month prior (568 recorded sales in April ‘07).

A key sentence that finally made its way into the latest DataQuick report (and shouldn’t catch any plugged-in readers by surprise): "The median has increased the last four months, in part because sales of lower-cost homes have dropped more than sales in other categories.”

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in May was $660,000 (a revised year-over-year increase of 3.4%) and sales volume was 8,080 (down 18.7% from a revised 9,935 sales in May ’06). And at the extremes, Sonoma recorded a 5.4% year-over-year reduction in median sales price, while Napa recorded a 13.1% year-over-year gain on significantly lower (down 35.6%) volume; and year-over-year sales volume continued to plummet in both Contra Costa (down 29.5%) and Solano (down 37.6%) counties as well.

∙ Bay Area home sales drop, prices up [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Home Sales Drop, Median Sales Price Up [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

JustQuotes (And A Note): And Yet Money Is Still Relatively Cheap

“The average rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans climbed to 6.74 percent for the week ending June 14, from 6.53 percent the previous week. That marked the biggest one-week increase since July 2003….Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), expects mortgage rates to top out near 7 percent by the end of the year.”

[Editor’s Note: A rate shift from 6.53 to 7.00 percent would requite mortgage balances to drop by almost 5% in order to maintain the same level of payment affordability.]

∙ Mortgage rates: biggest spike in 4 years [CNNMoney]
∙ What’s The Treasury Got To Do With It? (Quite A Bit) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

Rincon Towers: From Apartments, To Condos, To Apartments

A year ago, the Rincon Towers apartment building at 88 Howard was sold to a developer intent on converting the building into condos.

Three months ago (and over on the SocketSite Forums) a plugged-in reader wondered about the lack of activity at the building (either in terms of new rentals or condo sales), and another reader answered: "...Beacon [Capital] backed out of doing a condo conversion and put the building back on the market. They are now marketing it to potential buyers not as a condominium building, but as an apartment building."

And yesterday, it’s reported that the Towers have indeed been sold (to Capital Properties) with plans to turn the building into "luxury apartments and high-end corporate furnished housing." Don't say you didn't see it coming (at least if you're plugging-in).

∙ Rincon Towers Going Condo [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite Forums: Rincon Center [forums.socketsite.com]
∙ Rincon Center apartments sold to N.Y. firm [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

June 13, 2007

JustQuotes: One We Couldn’t Resist And Another We Shouldn’t

"You're safer taking a ride with Lindsay Lohan than being in homebuilder stocks," said David Lichtenstein, chief executive officer of Lightstone Group LLC in Lakewood, New Jersey, which owns malls and hotels. Actress Lohan was arrested May 26 for driving under the influence after crashing her car.”

And on a more serious (and perhaps local) note, "It appears that the impact of stricter lending standards, primarily arising from problems in the subprime market, is negatively affecting affordability at lower price points," [Toll Brothers Chief Executive Officer] said. "This in turn can and probably does impact the entire housing food chain including some of our potential customers' ability to sell their existing homes."

For context, under 2% of Toll Brothers’ buyers are subprime borrowers. Did someone say bipolar (or bifurcated) market?

∙ Subprime Crash Squeezes Out First-Time Home Buyers [Bloomberg]
∙ JustQuotes: They Say Bifurcated, We Said Bipolar (A While Back) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

Readers Report: Big Demand For Big Rentals (For Big Money)

While we can’t confirm a reader’s comment yesterday about recently renting 2786 Broadway, it does remind us that we’ve been remiss in publishing another contribution from Seb (a seriously plugged-in reader):

Big Demand For Big Rentals (For Big Money)
If you don’t want to buy in Pacific or Presidio Heights, and you need more than 4,000 square feet or 5+ bedrooms, you can always rent. But beware, properties are now moving fast. Since the beginning of 2007 high-end rentals have on average moved within a couple of weeks. Recent rentals include:

A choice property near the Egyptian Consulate General’s for a little over $10,000/month.

A grand Chateau near the Korean Consulate General’s for around $15,000/month.

And a majestic view home near the Japanese Consulate General’s for $32,000/month.

[Editor’s Note: If that last one looks familiar, it should. And as far as we know, it’s still available. We’ll let you run your own rent versus buy calculations (but feel free to share).]

∙ Comment: 2786 Broadway: Reduced 12.8% (Again) [SocketSite]
∙ Million Dollar Views (For A Million Dollars Less) [SocketSite]
∙ To Rent Or To Buy, That Is The Question (That Only You Can Answer) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (25) | (email story)

June 12, 2007

An Ode To Offices Or A Rethinking Of Residential?

In February we noted that Miami developer Don Peebles was unloading 250 Brannan, a vacant commercial space which was purchased in March, 2006 for $19.8M and then entitled for 54 uberluxury loft condos. A couple of weeks ago, the deal was done (sale price of $31M) and it will remain office space.

From the Business Times: “Colliers broker Tony Crossley, who represented Peebles, said the city's slow entitlement process gave Peebles a chance to do "reality checks along the way." . . . Crossley doesn't expect to see any more office to residential conversions in this cycle. "I believe residential conversion is over -- we're done," said Crossley.”

∙ JustQuotes: Nope, Not Included In Our "Near-Term Likely" Cii Pipeline [SocketSite]
∙ Peebles unloads SoMa space for $31M [Business Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

June 11, 2007

JustQuotes: They Say Bifurcated, We Said Bipolar (A While Back)

“It is a bifurcated market, with continued brisk sales of homes in desirable neighborhoods, especially in the $750,000-and-up range. At the same time, lower-priced homes, and houses in outlying areas, are simply not moving -- in large part because tighter lending standards, a fallout of the subprime loan crisis, mean there are fewer entry-level buyers. The shift in market mix has caused median prices to continue rising, despite the hordes of buyers sitting on the sidelines.” (Would-Be Home Buyers Hesitate)

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

June 8, 2007

What’s The Treasury Got To Do With It? (Quite A Bit)

As the 10-year treasury goes, so do mortgages. And as the 10-treasury yield has been pushing higher, so have mortgage rates.

The average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 6.12 percent Thursday, up from 5.98 percent a week ago, according to Bankrate.com. The average 15-year fixed mortgage was at 5.82 percent, up from 5.69 percent last week.

And while a one week increase from 5.98 to 6.12 percent in long-term mortgage rates seems nominal (and rates remain near historic lows), keep in mind that a buyer that could only afford a $600,000 mortgage last week can only afford $591,000 now (1.5% less).

∙ 10 - Year Treasury Yield Passes 5 Percent [New York Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

June 7, 2007

A ZipRealty “San Francisco” Housing Inventory Reality Check

As a tipster notices, the Wall Street Journal along with a number of other websites jumped on ZipRealty’s recent inventory report.

The number of homes listed for sale in 18 major U.S. metropolitan areas at the end of May was up 5.1% from April, according to figures compiled by ZipRealty Inc., a national real-estate brokerage firm based in Emeryville, Calif.

The sizable increase is notable because, on a national basis, inventories of listed homes have typically been little changed in May during the past two decades, according to Credit Suisse Group. May is one of the peak home-selling months because families with children often aim to move during the summer vacation.

Some of the biggest inventory increases last month came in the metro areas of Seattle, up 12% from April; San Francisco, 11%; Los Angeles, 10%; and Washington, D.C., 9%.

Keep in mind, however, that the 11% increase for San Francisco is for the San Francisco Bay Area (those damn MSAs). Active inventory of listed single-family homes and condos in San Francisco proper was actually flat (if not slightly down) at the end of May (as compared to April). Regardless, it sill makes for a nice little interactive graph.

∙ San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 6/01/07 [SocketSite]
∙ Housing Inventories Soar Across U.S. (Interactive Graph) [Wall Street Journal]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

June 5, 2007

JustQuotes: No Surprise, Bay Area Rents On The Rise

“In San Francisco proper, average occupancy now exceeds 97% and monthly effective rents have increased 7% in each of the past two years….In San Jose, average occupancy is in excess of 97% and average effective rents rose 7.8% in 2005 and 10% last year, marking the highest rent increase in the US.”

∙ Bay Area Apartment Market Healthy, Strong [GlobeSt.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (28) | (email story)

June 1, 2007

San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 6/01/07

A typical decline in new listings in the week prior to Memorial Day combined with an uptick in sales (based on our calculations) resulted in a nominal decrease in San Francisco’s total Active listed housing inventory over the past two weeks (now down ~10% YOY).

At the same time, both the number (250) and percentage (24%) of listings that have been reduced continues to build with the majorty for properties now listed under $800,000 (and about half single-family homes).

∙ San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 5/14/07 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

May 31, 2007

JustQuotes: The Showcase, The Event, And The (National) Impact

“1771 North Point is a down to the studs total overhaul (remodel doesn’t do it justice) and the showcase home for the Pacific Coast Builders Conference.” (The “Marina Green Showcase” Hits The Market)

“Numbers are down this year at PCBC The Premier Building Show, a major homebuilders conference at Moscone Center that opened Wednesday, a reflection of declining new-home construction after previously hot sales.” (Premier Building Show reflects decline in sales)

“For nearly a year, the economy has been enduring a stretch of subpar economic growth due mostly to a sharp housing slump.” (Economy Has Worst Growth Since 2002)

Posted by socketadmin at 4:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

OFHEO First Quarter Report: 0.35% Appreciation For SF MSAD

The latest OFHEO House Price Index (HPI) ranks California 46th in terms of year-over-year home price appreciation (1.19%) and measures Q1 2007 appreciation at a negative 0.84%. For the San Francisco/San Mateo/Redwood City MSAD, year-over-year appreciation measured 1.32% with appreciation of 0.35% in the first quarter of 2007, a marked difference from last year's report of 14.60% year-over-year appreciation and 1.15% in the first quarter (0.17% less than the full year gain).

Keep in mind, however, that the HPI is based on data from repeat single-family home sales, or refinancings, that involve conforming mortgages (under $417,000). Data from transactions involving either condominiums or non-conforming loans (two major components in the San Francisco market) are excluded from the Index.

As always, it’s just another data point and perhaps most meaningful relative to itself (rather than in the absolute). And no, we don't have any idea why they chose red to denote the highest positive four-quarter appreciation (10%+) and dark blue the lowest (-1.0% to 2.0%).

∙ OFHEO House Price Index: Q1 2007 (pdf) [ofheo.gov]
∙ OFHEO Reports 1.15% First Quarter Appreciation For San Francisco [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

May 29, 2007

March S&P/Case-Shiller Index: Mixed Results For San Francisco MSA

According to the March 2007 S&P/Case-Shiller index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA slipped 2.3% year-over-year but gained 0.1% from February '07 to March '07 (the first monthly uptick since May 2006). For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 1.9% and down 0.4% from February.

As previously noted: The S&P/Case-Shiller index only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ Spring Brings No Signs of Warming in Home Prices [standardandpoors.com]
∙ February S&P/Case-Shiller Index Decline Continues For SF MSA [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

May 24, 2007

We’ve Almost Got A Line (Another Data Point At 2760 Sacramento)

As you might recall, last fall 2760 Sacramento #9 hit the market in Pacific Heights for $769,000, received multiple offers, and sold for $859,000 on 8/31/06. At the same time, 2760 Sacramento #11 hit the market for $795,000, was reduced to $755,000, received four offers, went into contract for $795,000, and then finally closed for $749,000 after the “winning” bidder backed out (and the multiple offers evaporated). And as we wrote in September:

Our take: competitive bidding still gets the best of people results, and views continue to command a premium. And at the very least, we’re still calling it troublesome for the buyers of unit #3 who paid $827,000 last November [11/05], don’t have parking, and are located two floors directly below #11.

And now 18 months after its last sale, unit #3 is back on the market with a list price of $849,000. A sale at this price would represent annual appreciation of a little under 2% over the past 18 months. We'll keep you posted (and "plugged-in").

∙ Yet Another Data Point At 2760 Sacramento [SocketSite]
∙ One Building, Same Floor (Plans), Two Very Different Prices [SocketSite]
∙ Listing: 2760 Sacramento #3 (1/1) - $849,000 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (32) | (email story)

May 17, 2007

Reports Of Mortgage Fraud Spike For 2006 Originations

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and the Mortgage Asset Research Institute (MARI), “The number of [fraud] reports in MARI's Mortgage Data Industry Exchange (MIDEX®) database pertaining to 2006 originations is approximately 30 percent higher than the number of reports in the 2005 book of business at the same time last year.”

Also noted: "The most common types of fraud found to date in 2006 originations are in the areas of employment history and claimed income," and "California's reported fraud had been quite low in the past few years, and some industry experts have suggested that its problems were masked by high real estate appreciation. The recent slowdown in its housing market may explain California's return to high ranking in this year's report.”

Over the past four years, the state of California has jumped from 30th to 2nd (behind only Florida) in terms of the MARI fraud index (pdf).

∙ Mortgage Bankers Association: 2006 MARI Mortgage Fraud Report [ChoicePoint]
∙ Nineth Periodic Mortgage Fraud Case Report (pdf) [MARI]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

May 16, 2007

San Francisco Home Sales Drop, Median Sales Price Up

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $790,000 last month, up 1.4% compared to a revised April ’06 ($779,000), and up significantly (4.9%) compared to the month prior. Sales volume, however, was down (3.9%) year-over-year (568 sales in April ’07 versus a revised 591 sales in April ’06) and fell (11.3%) compared to the month prior (640 recorded sales in March ‘07). As we noted last month, sales volume typically builds through the first six months of the year.

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in April was $659,000 (a revised year-over-year increase of 3.8%) and sales volume was 7,447 (down 18.4% from a revised 9,129 sales in April ’06). And at the extremes, Sonoma recorded an 8.5% year-over-year reduction in median sales price, while Marin recorded a 8.8% year-over-year gain; and year-over-year sales volume continued to plummet in both Contra Costa (down 28.2%) and Solano (down 37.2%) counties.

A quote from DataQuick's Marshall Prentice: "With sales this slow, prices would decline if there were a huge number of motivated sellers listing their homes. That doesn't appear to be the case. It's likely that potential buyers are biding their time, as are sellers. It's hard to buy a home if you think it might go down in value. Things could pick up this summer as buyers see that values are not dropping." And of course, vice versa.

∙ Bay Area home sales drop, prices up [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Home Sales Up, Median Sales Price Down [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (23) | (email story)

May 14, 2007

San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 5/14/07

Based on our calculations, re-sale activity for listed properties in San Francisco has been relatively flat over the past two weeks. At the same time, new listings have slightly outpaced new sales resulting in a nominal increase in total Active listed housing inventory.

∙ San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 4/30/07 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

May 8, 2007

The SocketSite Scoop On That Short Sale In Rincon Hill

Okay, so here’s the “plugged-in” scoop on that “short sale of a Rincon Hill condo” that was mentioned in the Chronicle this past weekend: It’s a two bedroom condo in the Bridgeview (#1212); it was originally listed for $849,000 and then reduced (twice) to $799,000; and as the listing notes, “Price reduced! Seller motivated. All reasonable offers considered.”

And while the article reports that this property was eventually auctioned off, it’s currently listed as pending on the MLS (which leads us to believe it never actually hit the auction block). That being said, Damion Matthews' insight is important, “the increase in short sales has led to a problem. Many lenders are so busy that they don't respond to short-sale offers.”

∙ Listing: 400 Beale #1212 (2/2) - $799,000 (In Escrow) [Pacific Union]
∙ Real estate short sales: "win-win" or reward for failure to live within one's... [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (51) | (email story)

April 30, 2007

San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 4/30/07

Based on our calculations, re-sale activity for listed properties in San Francisco increased around 10% over the past two weeks. At the same time, new listings have continued to outpace new sales as Active listed housing inventory increased slightly as well.

∙ San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 4/16/07 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (29) | (email story)

April 24, 2007

February S&P/Case-Shiller Index Decline Continues For SF MSA

According to the February 2007 S&P/Case-Shiller index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA dropped 0.5% from January '07 to February '07 and slipped 2.2% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 1.5% (a near 15 year low).

And once again, by most accounts our local economy remains strong, employment and wages are up, and the cost of borrowing remains near historic lows. This is in marked contrast to our last real estate decline (2001-2002) which directly coincided with a local economic meltdown (a.k.a. The Internet Bubble).

As previously noted: The S&P/Case-Shiller index only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ Persistent Declining Returns (pdf) [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ January S&P/Case-Shiller Index Down For San Francisco MSA [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

JustQuotes: What’s Perception And What’s Reality In Realty?

"Buyers come to us and are obviously very distressed when we tell them they're going to have to compete against quite a few people to purchase any property that is exceptional," [agent Peter Goss] said. "That's not the perception that one has. The perception that one has is very different.

"Last year's big story was the housing bubble. People finally got to the point here of realizing, 'You know what? This isn't happening here.' Now you pick up the paper and what's the story? It's the subprime market problems. That's this year's story. Here again, there are so few subprime loans in San Francisco -- it's a very different situation here than in other Bay Area cities." (Picking Up Steam)

∙ Picking Up Steam [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (14) | (email story)

April 17, 2007

Bay Area “Notices Of Default” Heading North? (So To Speak)

While a 67.4% year-over-year increase in San Francisco Q1 “Notice of Default” activity sounds dramatic, in absolute terms it still represents relatively few properties (216). Within the greater Bay Area, however, Contra Costa hit a record level of Q1 default activity (1,969 notices, up 225.5% year-over-year) as did Sacramento (3,234 notices, up 184.7% year-over-year). And Alameda isn’t too far behind (1,578 notices, up 179.8%).

According to DataQuick, “[t]he number of default notices sent to California homeowners last quarter increased to its highest level in almost ten years, the result of flat appreciation, slow sales, and post teaser-rate mortgage resets,” and “[m]ost of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between April 2005 and May 2006.”

And while most homeowners “emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe…about 40 percent of homeowners who found themselves in default last year actually lost their homes to foreclosure in the first quarter.” That’s up from nine percent at the same time last year.

Keep in mind that long-term interest rates remain near historic lows, and according to most, the Bay Area economy remains strong (and incomes are up).

∙ California Foreclosure Activity Jumps Again [DQNews]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (57) | (email story)

April 16, 2007

San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 4/16/07

Not that it’s some magical number, but Active listed housing inventory in San Francisco (SFH/Condo/TIC) crossed the 1,000 listing mark this weekend. Perhaps spring has sprung.

∙ San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 4/09/07 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

April 13, 2007

Reduced Again: Round Two For Two Near The Top

Take another $350,000 (8.5%) off of the “two for one” listing at 1 Florence (now 16.7% below the original asking), and another $245,000 (5.5%) off the top of 21 Buena Vista Avenue (now 14.1% below the original asking). And in either case, don’t forget to our invitations to the housewarmings. We do like big views.

As an aside, currently over a quarter of all active single family/condo/TIC listings in San Francisco have been reduced at least once. And almost half of those have price tags of under $700,000.

UPDATE (4/14): The sfnewsletter sends us a tip that 21 Buena Vista was listed for as much as $5,475,000 last May. If that’s the case, then consider it “22.4% below the semi-original asking.”

∙ Listing: 21 Buena Vista Avenue (6/6) - $4,250,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 1 Florence #6 and #1 (2/2.5 and 0/1) - $3,750,000 [MLS]
∙ San Francisco Luxury: Up In General, Down In Specific [SocketSite]
∙ A Little Off The Top Of The Witches Hat (21 Buena Vista Ave) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

April 12, 2007

San Francisco Home Sales Up, Median Sales Price Down

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $753,000 last month, down 2.1% compared to a revised March ’06 ($769,500), and down slightly (0.6%) compared to the month prior. Sales volume, however, was up slightly (1.4%) year-over-year (640 sales in March ’07 versus a revised 631 sales in March ’06) and was up sharply (70.7%) compared to the month prior (375 recorded sales in February ‘07). Sales volume typically builds through the first six months of the year.

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in March was $639,000 (a revised year-over-year increase of 2.1%) and sales volume was 8,317 (down 19.6% from a revised 10,343 sales in March ’06). At the extremes, Napa recorded a 9.2% reduction in median sales price year-over-year, while Alameda recorded a 3.1% year-over-year gain. And year-over-year sales volume was off over 30% in both Contra Costa (31.2%) and Solano (36.4%) counties.

As noted last month, we’ve adjusted our graph to reflect DataQuick’s change in methodology. Data points marked with an asterisk (*) reflect our estimate of what DataQuick will/would report for revised sales volumes/prices.

∙ Bay Area home prices up, sales still slow [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Home Sales Down, Median Sales Price Up [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

A Quick Reversal In Forecasts (And Fortunes?)

“The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday it expects its measure of [U.S.] home prices to fall this year for the first time since the group began keeping track nearly 40 years ago. In its latest monthly forecast, the real estate group said it expects a 0.7 percent decline in the median price of an existing home sold in 2007. A month ago it had been projecting a 1.2 percent increase.”

Keep in mind this represents a non-recession-related decline. And while it is a national rather than local forecast, it is worth mentioning. If for no other reason than the National Association of Realtors' Chief Economist “[David Lereah]…tried to put the best picture on the housing price decline, saying much of it was caused by a sharper slowdown in sales in higher-priced markets along the East and West Coasts.” Wait a second…

∙ Home prices set for first drop in 40 years [CNNMoney]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

April 11, 2007

Betting On A Bidding War? (Once Again)

After two weeks on the market the list price on 841 Webster was reduced $50,000 (4%). Two weeks later, it was reduced another $59,000 (5%). And a week after that (yesterday), it was reduced another $201,000 (17%). Perhaps they're betting on a bidding war. Or perhaps expectations have actually changed (apparently it's now "priced to sell!").

Regardless, and once again, we can't help but note that if 841 Webster one sells for one dollar over $989,000 (which is $310,000 less than the original list price) it will be recorded as selling for “over asking” and quite possibly with “multiple bids!” Ah, those wacky little marketing statistics (and tactics).

∙ Listing: 841 Webster (3/1.5) - $989,000 [Zephyr] [MLS]
∙ Betting On A Bidding War? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

April 9, 2007

San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 4/09/07

Active listed housing inventory in San Francisco (SFH/Condo/TIC) still hasn’t crossed the 1,000 listing mark in 2007, but for the most part continues to mimic last year’s levels and growth (which didn’t begin to substantially increase until the end of April).

∙ San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 3/19/07 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

April 4, 2007

A Quick Promotion: What’s To Become Of Dear Old San Francisco?

We’re making a quick promotion this morning (from comment to post) as a reader recalls a decade old presentation sponsored by the American Institute of Architects (AIA):

[W]hat is interesting to me about all of these condominium conversion projects is that it makes one wonder, what kind of city will this become? About 10 years ago, the SF AIA had a talk presented by a USC arch. prof. predicting that San Francisco would become the Venice Italy of the U.S. No more jobs, offices, and industry. Instead we will have shops, restaurants, hotels and condominiums. The economic center of the region would shift south to the peninsula and San Jose. I think the prediction is coming true, though I am happy to see the added housing inventory.

For the record, the commercial real estate market in San Francisco is going gangbusters (and then some), but it’s an interesting question nonetheless (especially in light of San Franciso's growing affordability crunch).

∙ 733 Front Street: A SocketSite Forum Inquiry (And Answer) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (10) | (email story)

March 28, 2007

More Apples In Hayes Valley (525 Gough)

In July 2005, 525 Gough #105 sold for $881,000. Early last month, the Hayes Valley condo was listed for $929,000. And yesterday, it was reduced to $899,000. In related activity, 525 Gough #405 appears to have fallen out of contract and is now back on the market.

Is it something about the "05" units? The building? The block? The neighborhood?

∙ Listing: 525 Gough Street #105 (2/3) - $899,000 [Pacific Union]
∙ Apples To Apples In Hayes Valley (525 Gough #405) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

March 27, 2007

January S&P/Case-Shiller Index Down For San Francisco MSA

According to the January 2007 S&P/Case-Shiller index (pdf), single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA dropped a nominal 0.17% from December '06 to January '07 but slipped 1.4% year-over-year. For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), year-over-year price growth is down 0.7% (a thirteen year low).

As previously noted: The S&P/Case-Shiller index only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best), and includes San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., the greater MSA).

∙ The New Year Begins With Negative Returns (pdf) [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller Index Down For San Francisco [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

March 20, 2007

San Francisco Sales Volume/Median Sales Price: Revised Chart

For those chart junkies who might have missed it, we’ve published a revised chart of San Francisco’s existing home sales (volume/median sales price).

∙ San Francisco Home Sales Down, Median Sales Price Up [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:00 AM | Permalink | (email story)

March 19, 2007

San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 3/19/07

After a nominal dip at the end of January, Active listed housing inventory in San Francisco (SFH/Condo/TIC) is on the rise as new listings have slightly outpaced new sales over the past four weeks. Once again, however, we’d caution against relying on listed inventory to infer too much about the local housing market for at least another month.

∙ San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 1/22/07 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

March 15, 2007

San Francisco Home Sales Down, Median Sales Price Up

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $757,500 last month, up 2.4% compared to a revised February ’06 ($740,000), and up slightly (0.7%) compared to the month prior. Sales volume, however, fell 12.6% year-over-year (375 sales in February ’07 versus a revised 429 sales in February ’06) and was down 6.7% compared to the month prior (402 recorded sales in January ’07). Sales volume typically builds through the first six months of the year.

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in February was $620,000 (a revised year-over-year increase of 0.3%) and sales volume was 6,305 (down 7.9% from a revised 6,844 sales in February ’06). At the extremes, Contra Costa county recorded a 5.5% reduction in median sales price year-over-year, while Marin county recorded a 3.8% year-over-year gain.

UPDATE (3/19): We’ve adjusted our graph to reflect DataQuick’s change in methodology. Data points marked with an asterisk (*) reflect our estimate of what DataQuick will/would report for revised sales volumes/prices.

∙ Bay Area home sales lowest since 1996, prices still flat [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Homes Sales Up, Median Sales Price Waffles [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (47) | (email story)

February 16, 2007

JustQuotes: Nope, Not Included In Our "Near-Term Likely" Cii Pipeline

“Less than a year after acquiring 250 Brannan St. for $20 million as a luxury residential loft play, Florida real estate mogul Don Peebles is putting the property back on the market as offices and expects to attract offers as high as $35 million.”

∙ Condo builder wants to sell space for offices [San Francisco Business Times]
∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (CII): Q1 2007 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

San Francisco Homes Sales Up, Median Sales Price Waffles

First and foremost, DataQuick has changed their methodology for identifying an "arm's-length" transaction. The change results in a “roughly 10 percent increase, on average, in [DataQuicks] historical monthly sales totals” and “a roughly 1 percent difference in the all-home median sale price historically.” We’ll be adjusting our methodology to reflect the change. That being said...

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $750,000 last month, up slightly (0.7%) compared to a revised January ’06 ($745,000), but down slightly (0.4%) compared to an unrevised December ’06. And for the first time in well over two years, sales volume increased (8.9%) on a year-over-year basis (402 sales in January ’07 versus a revised 369 sales in January ‘06).

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in January was $601,000 (down 1.5% year-over-year) and sales volume was 6,168 (down 4.1% from a revised 6,434 sales in January ’06). And at the extremes, Sonoma county recorded a 10.4% reduction in median sales price year-over-year, while Marin county recorded a 10% year-over-year gain.

∙ Bay Area home prices edge down [DataQuick]
∙ Change in Statistics Methodology [DataQuick]
∙ San Francisco Home Sales Fall, Median Prices Relatively Flat [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

February 12, 2007

SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (CII): Q1 2007

If you’re truly “plugged in,” you should already be familiar with SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (Cii) for San Francisco. As we wrote last September:

The goal of the Cii (pronounced “see”; we’re hoping Nintendo views it as flattery) is to paint a complete picture of housing inventory and new development in San Francisco; listed, unlisted, pipeline, and potential. In fact, we believe it represents a fundamental shift from the abstract to the tangible with regard to what’s in the works throughout San Francisco.

Over the past quarter, we have doubled the size of our new development database and SocketSite now tracks the size, status, probability, pricing, sales, and available inventory for nearly 125 new developments in San Francisco (15,000+ condominiums in total). We also track 10,000 “net new housing units” (including rental units) that are either proposed or on the drawing boards. And all told, we are actively keeping tabs on a potential inventory of 25,000+ housing units (i.e., San Francisco’s overall housing pipeline).

As it stands, in addition to the roughly 325 San Francisco condominiums that are listed and available for sale on the San Francisco MLS, we estimate that there are approximately 350 new condominiums that are not listed, but are currently available for purchase and immediate occupancy. These condos include unlisted inventory in buildings ranging in size from The Glassworks to The Beacon.

We also estimate that there are currently an additional 1,050 available condominiums that are actively competing for the attention of buyers and accepting non-refundable deposits in sales offices throughout San Francisco (examples include The Infinity, Heritage on Fillmore, and Arterra). And within the next six months, we expect to see an additional 2,450 condominiums begin marketing, accepting deposits, and competing for sales as well (think The Potrero, Symphony Towers, and The Bay).

Looking forward to the second half of 2007, we see an additional 1,575 new condominiums that are likely to start marketing/selling before the end of the year (or relatively soon thereafter). And for 2008/2009, we see 4,000+ units that have a shot of making it to market (and 2,000+ that will likely fall by the wayside).

Beyond that, well…you’ll just have to keep “plugging in.”

∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (Cii) [SocketSite]
∙ Glassworks (207 King): 3 Years Paid HOA And Further Reductions [SocketSite]
∙ The Beacon: Sales Office Incentives [SocketSite]
∙ The Infinity: Online Floor Plans And Condo Specifications [SocketSite]
∙ Heritage On Fillmore: The VIP Scoop [SocketSite]
∙ Evidence Of A Price Reduction At Arterra? [SocketSite]
∙ The Potrero (451 Kansas): Sales Center Opening In February [SocketSite]
∙ Symphony Towers: From The $300,000s [SocketSite]
∙ The Bay (329 Bay Street): Complete Pricing [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (25) | (email story)

February 8, 2007

Just Quotes: Punishing The Honorable (Another Dirty Little Secret)

“A new national survey found that 90 percent of appraisers reported that mortgage brokers, realty agents, lenders and even consumers have pressured them to raise property valuations to enable deals to go through. That percentage is up sharply from a parallel survey conducted in 2003, when 55 percent of appraisers reported attempts to influence their findings and 45 percent reported "never." Now the latter category is down to just 10 percent.” (Feeling pressure to inflate appraisals)

∙ You Can Relist, But You Can’t Hide [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

February 6, 2007

C.A.R.’s State of the California Housing Market

The California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) published the summary results of their 2006 Annual Housing Market Survey (“The State of the California Housing Market”) today. A couple of tidbits that caught our attention:

∙ Home buyers with zero-down payments increased significantly from 4.5 percent in 2000 to 21.1 percent in 2006. Two of five first-time buyers (40.9 percent) made a zero-down payment on their home purchase, while just one in 10 repeat buyers (11.3 percent) purchased their home with no down payment.

∙ The share of buyers who used a second mortgage climbed from 38 percent in 2005 to 43 percent in 2006, more than triple the percentage since 2001 and the highest percentage since 1982. The use of alternative loan products also registered a sharp increase.

∙ The typical first-time buyer had a median age of 35, earned an annual household income of $80,000, and purchased a home with a historically high median price of $450,000.

∙ The typical home seller was 50 years old, had a two-member household, earned an annual household income of $100,000, and lived in the home for five years before selling it.

∙ C.A.R.’s “State of the California Housing Market” Summary [C.A.R.]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

January 31, 2007

S&P/Case-Shiller Index Down For San Francisco

According to the November 2006 S&P/Case-Shiller index, single-family home prices in San Francisco dropped 0.7% from October '06 to November '06 (down 0.9% year-over-year).

A couple of things to remember, the S&P/Case-Shiller index only tracks single-family homes (not condominiums which represent half the transactions in San Francisco), and it is imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus actual market appreciation (although they try their best). Regardless, it is another data point.

∙ Continued Wide Spread Home Price Declines in November (pdf) [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ A Decade Of Movement In San Francisco's Mean Sales Price [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

January 30, 2007

It’s Not Just Condos That Are Going Rental

After 138 days on the market, and three price reductions (now $505,000 or 15% below its original list price), 2523 Steiner is still on the market. But now it’s also testing the waters as a rental ($10,000 per month). We’ll let you run the numbers.

∙ Listing: 2523 Steiner (3/3.75) - $2,795,000 [McGuire]
∙ For Rent: 2523 Steiner (3/3.75) - $10,000/mo. [Joel Goodrich]
∙ Contemporary Luxury On Sale [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (19) | (email story)

January 25, 2007

A Decade Of Movement In San Francisco's Mean Sales Price

Once again, this data only reflects properties that were listed and recorded as sold on the SFAR Multiple Listing Service. And as always, while a change in average (or Median) sales price might be a fair measure of the market's appetite, it’s not necessarily the best measure of actual home/condo appreciation or performance. It's just another data point.

∙ San Francisco Home/Condo Sales: Historical Context [SocketSite]
∙ Expectation Setting: San Francisco Appreciation [SocketSite]
∙ NAR Home Price Analysis For San Francisco [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (41) | (email story)

January 24, 2007

Another Try (And Reduction) For 868 Arkansas

An eagle-eyed (and elephant-minded) tipster notices that 868 Arkansas is back on the market. As you might recall (as did our tipster), 868 Arkansas was the focus of a somewhat controversial Chronicle article last October.

"[The Seller] was considering taking a job in Seattle last year and put the house on the market last fall. After just two weeks, she received two offers, including one for $975,000. She decided against the new job and turned down the bidder. Now, she's decided to move to Europe and is asking $949,000 for her house [which was originally listed for $989,000]."

"If she hasn't received any offers by month's end, Nakajima said she'll stop trying to sell the house, which she bought 2 1/2 years ago." They aren't building single-family homes up on the hill in San Francisco any more,'' said Nakajima. "If I absolutely had to sell, that would be one thing. But...just breaking even is not really what I had in mind." (Home prices slip after 4 hot years)

With regard to the new listing, we can’t help but notice some great new photos (we’re particularly drawn to the leaded glass windows, hardwood floors, and French doors). And yes, a great new price ($899,000). "Twilight Showing" (with wine and cheese) this Friday (1/26/07) from 5:30-7:30pm.

∙ Listing: 868 Arkansas (3/2.5) – $899,000 [Paragon]
∙ The Article (And The House) [SocketSite]
∙ Home prices slip after 4 hot years [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

January 22, 2007

San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 1/22/07

After a thorough New Year’s cleaning, Active listed housing inventory in San Francisco is once again on the rise as new (and perhaps not so new) listings have outpaced sales over the past couple of weeks.

And while overall Active listed inventory might be up ~5% year-over-year, we’d caution against relying on the data to infer too much about the local housing market for at least another month (or two). That being said, keep in mind that it wasn’t until the end of April that San Francisco crossed the 1,000 active listings mark in 2006.

Looking forward, we see a particularly strong pipeline of new TIC units and condominiums in new developments.

∙ A New Year's House Cleaning (And Reader Predictions For 2007) [SocketSite]
∙ A New New Policy Change For The MLS [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

January 19, 2007

San Francisco Home/Condo Sales: Historical Context

We turn to Malcolm Kaufman’s latest ‘Pulse of The Market' for twenty years of MLS sales history for San Francisco’s single-family homes (SFH) and condominiums. Keep in mind that this history only reflects properties that were listed and recorded as sold on the SFAR Multiple Listing Service, and as such, actual condominium sales volumes, and most likely average sales prices, are understated (think new developments).

Regardless, it’s additional context for our analyses and discussions of “demand” and market activity going forward. And be sure to “plug in” next week for an inventory overview (i.e., "supply") and updated Complete Inventory Index (Cii) for San Francisco.

∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (Cii) [SocketSite]
∙ Malcolm Kaufman’s Pulse of The Market [sfpulseofthemarket.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (24) | (email story)

January 17, 2007

San Francisco Home Sales Fall, Median Prices Relatively Flat

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $753,000 last month, flat compared to November ’06, but up 3.6% year-over-year ($727,000 in December ’05). Sales volume was down 21.9% year-over-year (431 sales versus 552 in December ‘05) and fell 2.3% compared to the month prior (441 sales).

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in December was $612,000 (up 0.5% year-over-year, but down 0.6% from November ‘06) and sales volume was 7,488 (down 19.5% from December ’05, but up 3.9% from November ’06). Year-over-year, Napa county recorded the greatest slowdown in sales (down 27%) while Sonoma recorded to greatest decline in median sales price (down 6.3%).

∙ Bay Area home prices flat, slow sales [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Sales Volume Falls (Median Sales Price Stagnates) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (33) | (email story)

January 16, 2007

The Economics Of Apartments Versus Condominiums In Washington

The New York Times looks at the struggling new condo development market in Washington D.C. and the impact of developers changing course from sales to rentals.

“After six weeks of failing to lure more than a couple of dozen buyers, Mr. Franco and his partner, Jeff Blum, joined the builders of nearly 6,000 condominium units in the Washington metropolitan area who have decided in the last three months to recast their projects as rental apartment buildings.”

“The latest salvage operation on the part of condo developers is far from a sure bet, however. Condominium buildings generally cost more to build and operate than those built for apartments from scratch. And while rents are high and rising in most cities, in many cases they still are not sufficient to turn a profit.

Industry analysts also point out that rents may start sagging if too many condos are converted into apartments too quickly.”

And while we’re not suggesting that Washington is the best barometer for the San Francisco condominium market, with 188 King reverting to rentals for their unsold inventory, and rumors of The Palms and a number of other higher profile buildings considering following suit, it’s simply additional insight into the impact and implications of local developers changing course.

∙ Buyers Scarce, Many Condos Are for Rent [NYTimes]
∙ 188 King Street: The Rents [SocketSite]
∙ The Palms: Financing Incentives And Inventory Update [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (11) | (email story)

January 15, 2007

PropertyShark Update: More San Francisco Maps

In November, PropertyShark added free access to San Francisco foreclosure listings. Today, PropertyShark enhances their offering of San Francisco based maps and data “mash-ups” (including Recent Sales, Year Built, and Price per Square Foot).

We’re particularly fond of “Recent Sales” in terms of trend spotting, and “Year Built” in terms of context and neighborhood development (i.e., pre-1925 in dark blue).

UPDATE (1/16): PropertyShark responds to a couple of reader questions with regard to data accuracy. Our favorite line, “…SocketSite readers seem to be ahead of the curve on the real estate frontier...” And yes, flattery will get you everywhere.

∙ PropertyShark Launches San Francisco Foreclosure Listings [SocketSite]
∙ PropertyShark: San Francisco Maps [PropertyShark]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

January 3, 2007

Home/Condo Sales In San Francisco: Some Neighborhood Averages

We know better than to publish any more statistics that we haven’t compiled ourselves (much less “average” sale prices). But why should we let that stop us? From Herth Real Estate’s recent newsletter:

Double digit swings (in either direction) are more likely a factor of mix rather than the market, and simple averages really aren’t the best measure of actual market appreciation or performance. Regardless, a few more data points for your consideration (and debate).

∙ It’s Not Only The Leaves That Appear To Be Falling In San Francisco [SocketSite]
∙ Herth Real Estate: Newsletter [herth.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

December 22, 2006

It’s Not Only The Leaves That Appear To Be Falling In San Francisco

A “plugged in” tipster forwards an autumn to autumn comparison of listed (MLS) condo/coop/TIC/loft sales in San Francisco. Yes, they’re averages. Yes, seasonality is in full effect. And no, the majority of new construction isn’t included.

That being said, we do find the year-over-year drops in average sales price – down ~4% for resales – noteworthy. Or as our tipster writes, “[e]ven though those of us in SF arrogantly talk about the local market as one that doesn't see dropping values (but rather diminished appreciation), this data says otherwise.”

And it begs the question, is this “the drop” sidelined buyers have been waiting for, or is it simply the start of a longer, and larger, fall? (And yes, pun intended.)

UPDATE (12/27): The chart we originally received was incorrectly labeled “condos” as opposed to “condos, coops, TICs, and lofts,” but the data is correct (compiled by SFARMLS). We are, however, attaching an additional “mix” disclaimer.

Also, keep in mind that “sold” data only includes properties that actually closed escrow in the given month (as opposed to entering into contract). Adding pending sales to the mix (below) is probably a more accurate reflection of the market and brings the average change closer to -0.5%. We’d attach a “timing” disclaimer, but this is starting to get ridiculous…

Posted by socketadmin at 2:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (29) | (email story)

December 14, 2006

San Francisco Sales Volume Falls (Median Sales Price Stagnates)

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $754,000 last month, up 0.7% from $749,000 in November ’05, but down 2.2% from October ‘06. Sales volume was down 25.8% year-over-year (441 sales versus 594 in November ‘05) and fell 15.7% compared to the month prior (523 sales). Changes in median sales price are interesting. Changes in sales volume (i.e., "demand") are meaningful.

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in November was $616,000 (down 1.4% year-over-year but relatively flat as compared to October ‘06) and sales volume was 7,204 (down 25.9% from November ’05 and down 9.7% from October ’06).

Both Napa and Sonoma counties continued to show signs of weakness as year-over-year median sales prices dropped 1.5% and 7.7%, and sales volume dropped 31.7% and 22.5%, respectively.

∙ Bay Area home prices decline, sales at five-year low [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Median Sales Price Up MOM (But Down YOY) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

Hindsight For Some (Foresight For Others?)

From Inman News (free until midnight):

With the "perfect vision of hindsight," [Nicolas] Retsinas [director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies] said it is clear that the slowing began late in 2005. "Everyone knew you couldn't sustain double-digit appreciation," he said.

Well, either perfect vision or you’ve been “plugged in” to SocketSite. And yes, we’ve only called “the slowing” once (November 2005).

∙ 2006: Year of market correction [Inman News- $]
∙ Top O’ The Market To You! [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:04 AM | Permalink | Comments (28) | (email story)

December 11, 2006

San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 12/11/06

Over the past couple of week sales and withdrawals from the market have outpaced new listings in San Francisco as the inventory of Active listed single family homes, condos, and TICs continued to decline (now 1,046 units). 'Tis the season. At the same time, the percentage of "reduced" listed inventory has increased to 29.7%, and Active listed inventory is up ~25% as compared to mid-December 2005.

In addition to listed inventory, we calculate that there are ~300 unlisted condominiums on the market available for immediate occupancy, and well over 1,000 condominiums that will be delivered within the next eighteen (18) months and are actively being sold in sales centers throughout the city.

∙ San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 11/20/06 [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (Cii) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

November 29, 2006

San Francisco Median Prices And Affordability Fall

According to the California Association of Realtors, the median sales price for homes in San Francisco has fallen 0.5% on a year-over-year basis (up 2.1% for the greater Bay Area).

In related news, CAR’s new and improved "First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index" indicates that affordability in San Francisco has fallen from 21% in Q3 2005, to 17% in Q3 2006 (but up from 16% in Q2 2006).

∙ October 2006 Median Home Prices [CAR]
∙ Affordability Is Up! (But Not Really) [SocketSite]
∙ Housing affordability at 24 percent for first-time buyers in California [CAR]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

November 28, 2006

Expectation Setting: San Francisco Appreciation

It’s not the “bubble-proof” moniker that caught our attention, but the measure of San Francisco’s long-term (1949-2006) average annual home price appreciation (4.2%).

∙ Business 2.0: Bubble-proof markets [CNNMoney]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

Existing Home Prices Fall Nationally (And In The West)

While it's the local housing market that you really need to "plug in" to, it's worth keeping an eye on the broader market trends as well.

The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that [U.S.] existing home sales edged up 0.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.24 million last month. It was the first increase after seven consecutive monthly declines.

However, the median price for a home sold dropped to $221,000 in October, a decline of 3.5 percent from a year ago. That was the biggest year-over-year price decline on record.

It marked the third straight month that median prices have fallen compared with the same period a year ago, the longest stretch of such declines on record. The median is the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less.

David Lereah, chief economist for the Realtors, said he expected home prices to continue falling for the rest of the year as sellers, accustomed to the booming market conditions of previous years, reluctantly cut their prices.

"Many buyers remain on the sidelines," Lereah said. "After a period of price adjustment, we'll see more confidence in the market and a lift to home sales should be apparent in the first quarter of 2007."

It's also worth noting that U.S. housing inventory is up 34.4% as compared to October 2005 which puts “months of available supply” at 7.4 (up 51% year over year).

And we have to wonder, will falling home prices actually buoy buyer confidence? While a downward price trend might aid in affordability, we can’t imagine it will inspire too much near-term confidence in terms of housing as an “investment.”

∙ Existing Home Sales Rise, Prices Fall [SFGate]
∙ Existing Home Sales Rise in October, Market Stabilizing [realtor.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) | (email story)

November 21, 2006

JustQuotes: Slowing Luxury Home Market Gains

“In the San Francisco Bay Area, luxury homes continued the recent pattern of small quarterly gains. Increases have ranged between 0.3% and 1.8% over the past five quarters. Values have risen modestly for eight quarters.”

“Despite the slight increase from the second quarter, market conditions varied widely in the region. In San Francisco, prices and sales appear to be falling. “I see price reductions, and homes selling below the asking price,” said Naomi Glass of Coldwell Banker in San Francisco. “Few things are moving. People are hesitant because they see an uncertain market.”

Did we mention that we've been keeping an eye on the upper end of the market?

∙ California Luxury Home Values Rise Modestly [First Republic Bank]
∙ Prestige Home Index: San Francisco [First Republic Bank]
∙ Keeping Our Eyes On The Upper End Of The Market [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

November 20, 2006

San Francisco Housing Inventory Update: 11/20/06

After peaking at ~1,600 active listings in the third week of October, the inventory of Active listed single family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco has declined about 19% over the past month (now ~1,300). A pronounced pre-Thanksgiving slowdown in new listings, the seasonal withdrawal of “un-motivated” sellers, and relatively strong sales have all contributed to the decline.

And while the absolute number of “reduced” Active listings in San Francisco (370) fell about 10% over the past month, it hit a new peak in terms of the percentage of overall active listings (28.9%).

∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 10/30/06 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

November 16, 2006

Noe Valley Now On Sale?

From the latest edition of The Noe Valley Voice: “Noe Valley homebuyers took advantage of a retreating housing market to purchase real estate at less than full price…”

And while that’s not exactly true (it’s the buyers, not the sellers, which determine a property’s “full price”), the Voice's point is that single family homes in Noe Valley sold for an average of 99% of list price this past September (compared to 115% of list price in September 2005).

This doesn’t necessarily mean that home prices have fallen (although...), but it does represent a pronounced shift in market psychology and behavior (which sellers, buyers, and agents all need to understand and embrace). And as always, keep in mind that’s 99% of “list price” that's being reported (and not 99% of “original list price”).

∙ The Cost of Living in Noe [Noe Valley Voice]
∙ Noe Valley Numbers And Insight [SocketSite]
∙ Our Point Exactly [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

November 15, 2006

San Francisco Median Sales Price Up MOM (But Down YOY)

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $771,000 last month, down 0.9% from $778,000 in October ’05, but up 3.4% from September ‘06. Sales volume was down 13.6% year-over-year (523 sales versus 605 in October ‘05), but remained strong compared to the month prior (520 sales).

Based on steady sales and a nominal increase in Active inventory, we estimate that the “months of supply” of listed Single Family Homes, Condos, and TICs in San Francisco remained relatively flat at 3 months from September to October. Over the past three weeks, however, Active listings have declined ~10%.

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in October was $614,000 (flat year-over-year) and sales volume was 7,979 (down 24.1% from October ’05 but up 0.9% from September ’06). Both Napa and Sonoma counties continued to show signs of weakness as year-over-year median sales prices dropped 8.7% and 5.9%, and sales volume dropped 25.1% and 28.9%, respectively.

From DataQuick President Marshall Prentice, "The market is in the midst of its post-frenzy rebalancing phase. The sky is probably not falling, as some have predicted. But there will be those who bought near or at the peak, and who could find themselves in financial trouble if they need to sell and move sooner than they had planned." Yep, but it's still too soon to tell just how “soon” is soon. (Got it?)

∙ Bay Area home sales slow, prices flat [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Median Sales Price And Sales Volume Continue Declines [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

November 8, 2006

Keeping Our Eyes On The Upper End Of The Market

We’re not going to belabor the point, but regardless of your budget, we think it’s worth keeping an eye on the multi-million dollar properties we often feature on SocketSite.

The reasons stretch beyond design and decorating inspiration, beyond hints for marketing your property when the time comes, and beyond pure escapism. If for no other reason, keep in mind that the upper end of the market is often a leading indicator for the broader market in general.

Gathering accurate sales data for the upper end of the market, however, can be a challenge. Consider a note we received from a Realtor:

…the current trend among high-end realtors [is] to encourage clients to keep the sales prices of their purchases “confidential.” When this is done, the sale is marked as the listing price with an asterisk [in the MLS]. High-end properties (above 4 million) RARELY sell for full price. But realtors use the confidential sale stats in their analysis so the cost per square foot of many district 7 and 8 properties have been skewed.

This is not a trivial point. If the practice is prevalent, it not only skews MLS reported cost per square foot, but the median sales price (and implied appreciation) for luxury properties, and the reported “percentage over/under” asking for the market as a whole. And of course, it skews expectations.

Perhaps that’s part of the reason that half of the top 2% of active listings in San Francisco (ranging in price from $4,000,000 to $65,000,000) have undergone at least one price reduction. And that on average, these properties have been reduced by a total of 12.2% (a median reduction of 11.9%). Then again, it might just be the market.

Posted by socketadmin at 2:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

November 2, 2006

A Second Round Of Luxury Home Reductions

On the heels of the 3800 Washington’s $3,300,000 list price reduction, the list price for 2525 Webster was reduced for a second time (a total reduction of $500,000 or 7%).

Other recent second round reductions for luxury properties include the penthouse at 1800 Gough Street (a total reduction of $855,000 or 14.6%; and another great Resident Photography presentation), and 2881 Vallejo (a total reduction of $801,000 or 13.8%).

∙ A Little Lot Off The Top At The Top [SocketSite]
∙ Inside 2525 Webster [SocketSite]
∙ Listing: 1800 Gough Penthouse (3/4.5) - $4,995,000 [pacificheightspenthouse.com]
∙ Listing: 2881 Vallejo (5/5.5) - $4,999,000 [Sotheby’s]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

October 31, 2006

San Francisco's One Thumb Up

BusinessWeek gives San Francisco real estate a “thumbs up” in terms of "Value for the Long Run." And while we agree, the jury is still out with regard to the near term. From BusinessWeek:

Housing has gone from a sure thing to a complete muddle. Median prices fell nationwide for a second straight month in September, the first time that has happened since 1990, according to a report on Oct. 25. Homeowners don't know whether to sit tight or bail. They have no idea whether they're experiencing the beginnings of a deep bust that will leave a permanent hole in their wealth, or a small hiccup.

How do you know if your own local market is the kind that will snap back or the kind that will languish indefinitely? One key factor is the ease or difficulty of building new homes. Places where new home construction is a long and expensive process, such as Boston and San Francisco, tend to experience big price movements, both up and down. "Restricted supply leads to more volatility in prices," says Edward L. Glaeser, a Harvard University economist who has studied big-city housing markets.

Key word: volatility. And then there’s that second to last paragraph: “Sure, [restricting housing supply] can make current owners richer by increasing the scarcity value of their homes. But it's murder on first-time buyers. And in the long run, it's bad for the local economy. As Glaeser notes, companies tend to migrate away from areas with costly housing to avoid paying the higher salaries needed to compensate employees for their home costs.”

∙ Boom! Bust! Boom? [BusinessWeek]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

October 30, 2006

SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 10/30/06

Inventory of Active listed single family homes, condos, and TICs declined in San Francisco last week (down 2.9% since 10/16/06). The decrease marks the first such decline since Labor Day, and appears to be the result of both an uptick in new contracts (and withdrawn listings) combined with fewer new replacement listings (~156).

At the same time, both the number (418) and relative percentage (27.9%) of Active listings that have been “reduced” in San Francisco continued to rise.

∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 10/16/06 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

October 19, 2006

The Scoop On 188 King Street: Now Selling Leasing

The links are ours; the words are from a “plugged in” tipster:

First, you are right on, they have sold 12 units with the last two sales coming in the last few weeks. What is not public knowledge, however, is that five of those sales are units that have been, as your site pointed out earlier, retained for investment purposes but marked as sold for marketing purposes.

So they have sold seven units in six months, and that was before all the news of the market going south and before 200 units come on-line at 170 off Third. Their new strategy is to aggressively lease up the back of the building. They are going floor by floor, starting at the bottom. They are also trying to lease the penthouses.

If you’ve been “plugging in,” this new development shouldn’t catch you by surprise. If not, however, perhaps this will serve as a wake-up call (on a number of different levels).

∙ 188 King Street Update: 27% Sold? [SocketSite]
∙ 188 King Street: An Update [SocketSite]
∙ QuickLinks: New Condos On The Market (Or In The Works) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

October 18, 2006

The Article (And The House)

From the Chronicle: "After five open houses, a $40,000 price-cut and three months on the market, Leslie Nakajima hasn't had a single offer on her three-bedroom house in Potrero Hill. Nakajima, who does public relations for tech firms, said she's surprised it's taking so long to sell."

"She was considering taking a job in Seattle last year and put the house on the market last fall. After just two weeks, she received two offers, including one for $975,000. She decided against the new job and turned down the bidder. Now, she's decided to move to Europe and is asking $949,000 for her house."

"If she hasn't received any offers by month's end, Nakajima said she'll stop trying to sell the house, which she bought 2 1/2 years ago. "They aren't building single-family homes up on the hill in San Francisco any more,'' said Nakajima. "If I absolutely had to sell, that would be one thing. But I'm not desperate, and just breaking even is not really what I had in mind."

∙ Home prices slip after 4 hot years [SFGate]
∙ Listing: 868 Arkansas (3/2.5) – $949,000 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (31) | (email story)

September San Francisco MLS Summary

For additional “color” on yesterday’s DataQuick report, we pass along a tipster's summary report of September MLS activity in San Francisco (Single-Family Homes and Condos).

∙ San Francisco Median Sales Price And Sales Volume Continue Declines [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (13) | (email story)

October 17, 2006

San Francisco Median Sales Price And Sales Volume Continue Declines

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $746,000 last month, up 3.5% from $721,000 in September ’05, but down $4,000 (0.5%) from August ‘06. Sales volume was down 13.3% year-over-year (520 sales versus 600 in September ‘05), and down 15.2% from the month prior (613 Sales).

Based on slowing sales and increased inventory, we estimate that the “months of supply” of listed Single Family Homes, Condos, and TICs in San Francisco increased ~35% from August to September, and has continued to increase over the past couple of weeks.

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in September was $611,000 (down 0.8% year-over-year) and sales volume was 7,907 (down 29.4% from September ’05, down 13.4% from August ’06). Year-over-year sales volume dropped 39.1% in Marin, 34.4% in Napa, and 32.2% in Sonoma (which also recorded a 7.7% drop in median sales price).

And we can’t help but notice that while DataQuick noted “Indicators of market distress are still largely absent” just last month, this month's report notes that “Indicators of market distress are still at a moderate level.” (Still?)

∙ Bay Area home prices decline, sales slow [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Median Sales Price Takes A Little Hit [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

A Data Point On Fillmore

Last October, 2929 Fillmore sold for $1,425,000. Last month, the condo hit the market for $1,475,000. Last Friday, the price was reduced to $1,435,000.

In no way, shape, or form are we suggesting that anyone should evaluate a real estate investment based on a one year return. We are suggesting, however, that same home sales – assuming no remodeling or renovation between those sales, or significant changes in the neighborhood – can provide a relatively good measure of actual market appreciation (unlike changes in “Median Sales Price”). Now we just need some more data points.

∙ Listing: 2929 Fillmore (2/2) - $1,435,000 [Virtual Tour]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

October 16, 2006

SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 10/16/06

The gap between new listings and sales increased slightly as inventory of Active listed single family homes, condos, and TICs edged up slightly last week (~1.5%) with an increase in single family homes (+21) leading the pack. And while the volume of new listings (~190) remained relatively constant, sales volume declined (hence the increase in inventory).

A friendly reminder that our listed inventory figures only include “Active” listings (and exclude “Active Contingent” and “Pending”), and that our sales estimates include all properties that move from “Active” to either “Contingent” or directly to “Pending.” It might be difficult to track this directly from the MLS, but we figured it out.

∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 10/02/06 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

October 12, 2006

Those Numbers Sure Can Be Tricky

Some interesting September-to-September data points courtesy of the SFHomeBlog:

∙ MLS listed inventory in San Francisco is up 36% from 9/04
∙ MLS recorded sales in San Francisco are down 28% from 9/04

We can't vouch for the data, but if you take it at face value, listed housing supply in San Francisco has increased from 3.0 months in September 2004 to 5.6 months in September 2006. And if you're an advocate for simple “supply and demand" economics for housing, any thoughts on what one should infer regarding prices?

Just for the record, we’ve never used the words “crash,” “tanking,” or “bleak.” We are, however, quite fond of the words “trend,” “changing,” and “informed.” (And yes, sometimes even “troubling.”)

∙ Basic Supply & Demand (San Francisco) - pdf [SFHomeBlog]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (16) | (email story)

October 9, 2006

SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Mini-Update: 10/09/06

As expected, the volume of new listings and new contracts were about even last week as inventory of Active listed single family homes, condos, and TICs remained relatively unchanged. At the same time, the number of listings that have been reduced at least once increased about 50 units or 17% (now 23% of Active listings). And no, we’re not counting that house on Pine that was reduced $1.00 (0.00005%) after almost three months on the market. (Oh, the games people play.)

∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 10/02/06 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

October 4, 2006

NAR Home Price Analysis For San Francisco

Along with 118 other market reports, the National Association of Realtors has released the Home Price Analysis for the San Francisco Region (pdf) that it compiled this past July. Keep in mind that the report compares Q1 2006 versus Q1 2005, and that over the past six months year-over-year Median Price Appreciation and sales have continued to decline.

Considering that mortgage rates remain near historic lows, that the spread between short-term and long-term rates is negligible, and that we all seem to agree that real estate is a long-term investment, it’s worth noting that the “share of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) remained very high in the first quarter. The 72% ARMS usage rate is modestly higher than the 69% rate one year earlier.” The national average is only 28%.

And we're not trying to stir the pot, but we can’t help but notice the first bullet point under Additional Discussion Points: “Home price declines are very rare. In fact, the national median home price has not declined since the Great Depression of the 1930s.”

The month after publishing this report, NAR reported that the national median home price declined month-over-month for the first time in 11 years, and that year-over-year national median home price appreciation currently stands at 1.7%. As always, only time will tell.

∙ 2006 Market-by-Market Home Price Analysis Reports [realtor.org]
∙ Home Price Analysis for San Francisco Region – pdf [realtor.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (15) | (email story)

October 2, 2006

SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 10/02/06

Despite a number of reports to the contrary, new listings continued to outpace sales in San Francisco last week as inventory of Active listed single family homes, condos, and TICs edged up slightly (~1%). The volume of new listings (~190) and contracts both declined, as did the gap between the two, and we wouldn’t be too surprised to see parity, or sales overtaking new listings, within the next few of weeks.

And while we've been tracking them as unlisted inventory all along, a handful of condos over at The Beacon, Shorline, and the Royal have made the leap to "listed."

∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 9/24/06 [SocketSite]
∙ SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (Cii) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

September 25, 2006

SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 9/24/06

It has been three weeks since Labor Day and new listings of single family homes, condos, and TICs continue to outpace sales in San Francisco (although the gap has narrowed). Over the past week, roughly 230 new listings hit the MLS and the inventory of Active listed units in San Francisco increased about 2.2%. The percentage of reduced listings is holding relatively steady at ~19%.

Based on last months sales, we’re looking at about 2.5 months of listed inventory. And as always, these figures only take into account Active listed inventory (but that’s all about to change). Be sure to “plug in” tomorrow for the launch of SocketSite’s Complete Inventory Index (Cii).

∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 9/05/06 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (20) | (email story)

On The Market, Leverage, And Investing

An excerpt from the weekly report (9/4/06 – 9/10/06) of the President and COO of Coldwell Banker, San Francisco Bay Area:

Homes in today’s market are either flat from last year or slightly lower (10% or less). Sellers need to remember that prices went up 50% plus from 2003-2005. A small reduction from the highs of last year still leaves outstanding returns, as real estate is a leveraged investment. The gains are substantial and well beyond any other asset class.

A great reminder if you purchased your home pre-2004, probably a bit surprising if you purchased in the past year (and were expecting continued “outstanding returns”), and something to consider if you’re in the market today.

Keep in mind that with leverage, the converse is also true, and a “slightly lower” market can yield “outstanding” losses. And while real estate gains from 2003-2005 might have been “well beyond any other asset class,” over the long run, the equity markets outperform real estate as an investment. And yes, we’re well aware that you can’t live in a share of stock.

∙ In the Long Run, Sleep at Home And Invest in the Stock Market [New York Times]
∙ Real Estate Vs. Stocks [Forbes]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

September 21, 2006

Now Serving: The Watermark

What do the The Beacon, the Metropolitan, and now the Watermark all have in common? That’s right, pending litigation courtesy of Patrick Catalano. According to a tipster:

A lawsuit was filed against the Watermark on September 14th (case CGC-06-456175). The allegation? You guessed it! Square Footage! Does anyone think [Catalano] is the patron Saint of Condo Measurement…

San Francisco Superior Court case number CGC-06-456175 is identified as “CATALINA GARCIA VS. SAN FRANCISCO CRUISE TERMINALS LLC, A LIMITED et al” with the cause of action "CONTRACT/WARRANTY.” (Anybody care to share the filing/complaint?)

And while it might not be a class action suit (yet?), and it’s probably just a coincidence, we can’t help but notice it was filed the day after the Proposed SF Cruise Ship Terminal Sunk. Unfortunately, we’ve just filed this one under “trends.”

∙ A Big Bad Lawsuit At The Beacon [SocketSite]
∙ A Class Action Suit At The Metropolitan? [SocketSite]
∙ Watermark Update: 85% Sold [SocketSite]
∙ Proposed SF Cruise Ship Terminal Sunk [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (44) | (email story)

September 20, 2006

San Francisco Median Sales Price Takes A Little Hit

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $750,000 last month, up 0.7% from $745,000 in August ’05, but down $21,000 (2.7%) from July ‘06. Sales volume was down 7.4% year-over-year (613 sales versus 662 in August ‘05), but jumped 26.4% from the month prior (485 Sales). Based on last months sales volume, San Francisco currently has a 2.3 month supply of listed Single Family Homes, Condos, and TICs on the market.

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in August was $620,000 (up 0.2% year-over-year) and sales volume was 9,128 (down 24.9% from August ’05, but up 14.9% from July ’06). Sales in Napa dropped 47.3% year-over-year, and Marin recorded a 2.3% drop in median sales price.

According to DataQuick president Marshall Prentice, "Several things are going on. Many homes are being offered for sale at unrealistically high prices as sellers try to game the peak of the market. Buyers appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach as sellers get real with their asking prices. The market seems to be going into a lull, until this all shakes out. It does appear that the strong appreciation of the recent past is leveling off."

∙ Bay Area home sales decline, prices level off [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Median Sales Price And Sales Decline [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (5) | (email story)

September 18, 2006

Some Facts, Some Fiction

Last Tuesday the SFHomeBlog posted a number of sobering facts related to home sales in San Francisco for the week following Labor Day:

• Fewest number of contingent properties in one week in 2006
• Fewest number of pending properties in one week in 2006
• Fewest number of sold properties in one week in 2006
• New low for currently pending properties in 2006

These are four facts with which we can’t disagree. We do, however, take exception to the following three statements from the same post:

Statement 1: “The majority of our fall inventory has just hit. It will be all be piece-meal for the rest of the year with lower weekly numbers of new listings.” According to ZipRealty, almost 250 single family homes, condos, and TICs hit the market over the past seven days, which is about double the number of opposing sales, and ~17% of the current inventory. That's “piece-meal?”

Statement 2: “Inventory has been dropping since just after Memorial Day with a one-week exception (that's right) the weekend after July 4th.” According to our numbers, Active listed inventory steadily increased for the first three weeks of June (up ~20%), briefly dipped for about 10 days (down ~8%), rebounded again from July 5th through the end of the month (up ~13%), steadily dropped over the month of August (down ~12%), and once again rebounded after Labor Day (up ~25% over the past two weeks). As it stands, Active listed inventory is up ~33% since Memorial Day.

Statement 3: “Difference is, through all of this, the number of sales has been steady.” According to DataQuick, there were 626 sales in May, 652 Sales in June, and 485 sales in July (that’s down 22% from May, down 25% from June, and down 24% from July 2005). August numbers should be released this week. Keep in mind that over the past two years sales volume has peaked in June and then tailed off through the end of the year.

In a nutshell, sales activity has slowed while inventory continues to build. And for added context, consider that current listed inventory is back to -- if not higher than -- the level which the SFHomeBlog characterized as “a veritable saturation . . . of way too many homes“ and “a one-time occurrence” (a year ago).

∙ The Best (or worst) Week of 2006 [SFHomeBlog]
∙ Inventory Update: 5/18/06 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

September 13, 2006

The President Of N.A.R. Goes To Washington

A couple of quotes from the testimony (pdf) of Tom Stevens, the President of the National Association of REALTORS, at today’s U.S. Senate hearing on “The Housing Bubble and Its Implications for the Economy” (emphasis added):

"Sales are down significantly in Florida, California, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia, and Maryland. These regions experienced the greatest rise in home prices in recent years and affordability has become a major issue. The sharp decline in sales have resulted in a much higher housing inventory (tripling and quadrupling in some cases) and these areas are vulnerable to outright price declines, particularly if interest rates were to rise further."

"Contrary to many reports, there is not a “national housing bubble.” All real estate is local. For example, the housing market in California is extremely different from Oklahoma. Home price-to-income ratio, home price-to-rent ratio, and more importantly, mortgage debt servicing cost-to-income ratio have greatly increased in some markets to worrisome levels. Markets in Florida, California, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia, and Maryland exhibit trends far above the local historical norm, thus it would not be surprising for these markets to experience a price adjustment."

"Due to very high home prices, interest-only, adjustable rate, and/or option-ARMS became the only way to enter the housing market for some homebuyers. In essence, the homebuyers in the coastal markets are at their financial capacity. With rising mortgage rates, homebuyers are becoming exhausted financially, which explains why sales have tumbled in high priced regions of the country."

So ARMs and affordability are pressing problems, sales are slowing, and we're "vulnerable to outright price declines" and “adjustments”? Who could have possibly seen that coming (last November)…

∙ Witness Testimony: Mr. Tom Stevens, President N.A.R. (pdf) [senate.gov]
∙ The Housing Bubble and Its Implications for the Economy [senate.gov]
∙ Top O’ The Market To You! [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (18) | (email story)

September 11, 2006

It’s Tough At The Top

The 2006 Decorator Showcase property (3701 Washington) has been reduced $1,250,000 (8%). If you missed the Showcase tour, be sure to check out the online photos, floor plans, and features. And 65 St. Germain has instituted yet another “Fantastic Price Reduction” of $250,000 (5.5%). For those of you keeping track at home, 65 St. Germain has now been reduced a total of $2,500,000 (37%) off its original listing price. Wonder if there’s a trend in here somewhere…

∙ Now That’s How To Flip Renovate! [SocketSite]
∙ Listing: 3701 Washington Street (6/5.5) - $14,250,000 [Olivia Decker] [MLS]
∙ Listing: 65 Saint Germain (5/5.5) – $4,250,000 [MLS]
∙ We’ve Added “Fantastic” To The List [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

September 8, 2006

Inventory Update: Four Days Later

You commented. We listened. And from now on we'll report inventory in terms of Single Family Homes (SFH), Condos, and TICs (and just reserve the right to point out significant movements/trends in Multi-Family listings). So without further ado...

Active listings are up ~17% since Labor Day for a new baseline of nearly 1400 listed units (TICs up ~12%, SFHs up ~13%, and Condos up ~21%). Not including unlisted inventory (i.e., new developments), that’s roughly a three month supply of SFHs/Condos and a five month supply of TICs.

∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 9/05/06 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

The Odds Of Winning A Coveted Golden Ticket

Something to consider if you’re purchasing a TIC with the intent of converting it into a condominium:

With the number of condo conversion applicants increasing each year, the odds will get worse for each incoming group. For example, an applicant who entered the condo lottery in 2002 becomes an automatic winner in 2007. However, applicants who enter the lottery four years from now, in 2010, could face a waiting period of up to 24 years, the DPW report notes.

This year, 1652 units (537 buildings) applied for conversion permits (which are currently limited to 200 units per year).

∙ Condo permit odds toughen [Examiner]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

September 6, 2006

One Building, Same Floor (Plans), Two Very Different Prices

You may recall the two units we profiled in 2760 Sacramento. Unit #11 first hit the market at $795,000 (and was subsequently reduced to $755,000) while unit #9 hit the market for $769,000. According to a tipster, here’s how it played out:

#11 sat forever…they dropped the price…got 4 multiple offers…rumored to have gone back in contract for their original list price. Then the buyer got remorse so it fell out.

Simultaneously #9 - same floor plan better kitchen and some city views comes on - 24 disclosure packages go out voila $859k sales price.

Meantime #11 gets back in contract and just closed for $749k. Honestly the views weren't that great.

Our take: competitive bidding still gets the best of people results, and views continue to command a premium. And at the very least, we’re still calling it troublesome for the buyers of unit #3 who paid $827,000 last November, don’t have parking, and are located two floors directly below #11.

∙ But Isn't The Median Sales Price Up? [SocketSite]
∙ Yet Another Data Point At 2760 Sacramento [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

September 5, 2006

SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 9/05/06

Since peaking at well over 1700 Active listings at the end of August July, housing inventory in San Francisco has steadily dropped over the past four weeks to approximately 1500 listings (the lowest they’ve been since the beginning of June, but still around a three month supply). Three factors at work: sales, withdrawals, and waiting (until after Labor Day to list).

Once again, we expect to see a significant jump in inventory over the next few weeks. And the percentage of active listings that have been re-priced (i.e., reduced) stands at ~21% (according to ZipRealty).

Update: It's been a rough couple of weeks for the editorial staff. In case you didn't already figure it out, listings peaked at the end of July (and not August). Either that or we're suddenly able to see four weeks into the future...

∙ Nobody Actually Owns A Home In “Bay Area” [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

August 24, 2006

Premium Rents In The Presidio

From a “plugged in” tipster:

Remember when bidding wars were to buy a place? Now they're taking place over rentals in the Presidio.

Two or three years ago, the Presidio couldn't give these places away, with units sitting empty for months. But in the last few months, the park has been inundated by wealthy homeowners trying to cash out and move. And the park has not forgotten its "mandate" to make money. It is holding formal auctions for its more desirable properties, demanding among other things that prospective renters not only prove their financial wherewithal, but also propose such details as precise rent escalations. Rumor around here is that one place went for $3,000 over asking (yes that's over asking) and that someone offered to spend over $100k of their own change to renovate an officer's home.

Case in point, 1304-B Kobbe Avenue a “5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home…built in 1902 as officers’ housing” in Kobbe Terrace, and currently available for a “Minimum Monthly Rental Rate” of $10,800 (“stainless steel appliances” included). If you’re interested, the home will be open this Friday (8/25) from 2:00 to 4:00. (And don’t forget to include a “Rent escalation factor” in your proposal.)

∙ $10800 / 5br - OPEN HOUSE TOMORROW [craigslist]
∙ The Presidio: Kobbe Terrace [presidio.gov]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

August 23, 2006

Presentation To The NAR Leadership Summit

A tipster forwards the link to David Lereah’s Real Estate Reality Check presentation given at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Leadership Summit last week. Very little of the data is San Francisco specific, but as our tipster notes, “definitely an interesting look at the national market.”

A couple of not so positive slide titles that caught our attention: “Condo – Significant Price Depreciation in West and South,” “Mortgage Obligation to Income – Worrisome in the West,” “Prices Do Decline,” and “Correction Necessary.” And according to the “What Will Happen?” slide, “Prices [are] expected to fall for remainder of year,” (although “[p]rice fall will be limited due to pent-up demand at lower prices”) and “[s]ome local markets are fragile and vulnerable to rate rise” (that would be us).

The five-day-old presentation forecasts national existing home price growth of 4.3% in 2006 and 3.8% in 2007 (down from 12.4% in 2005), and existing home sales of 6.6 million in 2006 (which was lowered to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.33 million just this morning).

∙ Real Estate Reality Check: NAR Leadership Summit (8/06) - pdf [realtor.org]
∙ Fresh Data Shows Cooling Housing Market [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (8) | (email story)

August 18, 2006

Open House Observations

A couple of general “open house” observations:

1. We can’t help but notice the marked return of the Saturday open house (currently 86 scheduled for this weekend in San Francisco); 2. The frenetic pace has slowed (fewer people sprinting through open houses, barely noticing the lack of an actual kitchen (hell, they’ll just put a microwave in the closet), and leaving the car double parked (and running) out front); 3. Agents are actively selling (rather than simply parroting the date they’ll be reviewing offers); and 4. We agree with Curbed, it's easier to search for (listed) open houses on Movoto.

Any others?.

∙ Sunday Open Sunday [Curbed]
∙ Movoto [Movoto]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

August 17, 2006

Affordability Is Up! (But Not Really)

Earlier this morning, we referenced the Housing Affordability Index (HAI) which is published by the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.). According to the last published index (February), the percentage of households that could afford to purchase a median-priced home in the Bay Area was 12% (and only 9% in San Francisco).

Almost right on cue, C.A.R. released a new First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index (FTB-HAI) this afternoon:

C.A.R. began producing its Housing Affordability Index (HAI) in 1984. At that time, fixed-rate mortgages were the prevailing form of financing a home purchase, while the calculations used to produce the HAI reflected a 20 percent down payment. The methodology also assumed a monthly payment for principal, interest, taxes and insurance that was no more than 30 percent of a household’s income.

In the more than two decades since the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® first conceived the HAI, the mortgage finance landscape has changed dramatically. The range of mortgage products available to buyers as well as underwriting criteria has changed.

C.A.R. developed the new index measuring affordability for first-time home buyers to better reflect the realities of today’s real estate market.

According to the new model, the percentage of first-time buyers able to afford a median-priced home in the Bay Area stands at 24% (16% in San Francisco). And while that’s more palatable than 12% and 9% respectively, keep in mind that based on this new model (which takes into account relaxed lending standards and the shift away from long-term, fixed-rate mortgages), affordability in San Francisco is down about 18% from a year ago, down 28% from two years ago, and down 35% from the second quarter of 2003. That's the market reality.

∙ Nobody Actually Owns A Home In "Bay Area” [SocketSite]
∙ Housing affordability at 23 percent, according to newly developed index [C.A.R.]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

Nobody Actually Owns A Home In “Bay Area”

A key sentence in the Chronicle’s recent overview of the Bay Area housing market: “The trouble with housing forecasts, experts say, is that there is no single market but rather a wide variety of local markets.” And while the “Bay Area” median sales price might be up 3.5% year-over-year, the median sales price in local San Francisco is down 0.6%.

In addition, the current inventory of existing homes for sale in San Francisco is up to a 3.5 month supply (about 1600 active listings, 20% of which have been reduced in price at least once). And while that’s still not a lot of inventory, we do expect to see a significant jump after Labor Day (and estimate that supply is currently up ~50% year-over-year).

A reader also points out that in the accompanying Chronicle poll, 14% of the respondents answered yes to the question, “Do you expect to buy a home in the near future?” We can't help but notice that's about the same as the current affordability index (12%).

∙ Home sales fall as prices flatten [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

August 16, 2006

San Francisco Median Sales Price And Sales Decline

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $771,000 last month, down 0.6% from $776,000 in July ’05. Sales volume was down 23.9% year-over-year (485 sales versus 637 in July ‘05), and fell 25.6% from the month prior (652 Sales).

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in July was $627,000 (up 3.5% year-over-year) and sales volume was 7,941 (down 30.8% from July ’05 and down 19.7% from June ’06). Marin, Napa, and Sonoma continued to record negative year-over-year sales volume growth, and Napa recorded a 2.1% drop in median sales price.

From DataQuick president Marshall Prentice, "One of the questions being asked is how much future activity was drawn into the present in 2004 and 2005 when interest rates were at their lowest levels in decades. How much of today's demand has already been met?"

∙ Bay Area home sales decline, new price peak [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Median Sales Price Rebounds Slightly [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (9) | (email story)

August 8, 2006

A Hidden Opportunity, Another Data Point, Or Both?

Last November, 88 King Street #116 (a two-level, 1,500+ sqft condo at The Towers) hit the market for $1,110,000. At the time, it probably seemed like a relatively reasonable list price. Heck, according to public records 88 King Street #117 (a two-level, 1,500+ sqft condo at The Towers) sold for $1,066,000 the month prior (10/21/05). And yet nine months and five price reductions later, #116 is still on the market and is now listed for $927,000 (a reduction of $183,000 or 16.5% from the original listing price).

We know, we know, it’s hardly a fair comparison between these two units. Then again, #117 is back on the market (shown above). And today they’re asking $949,000.

∙ Listing: 88 King Street #116 (2/3) - $927,000 [McGuire] [MLS]
∙ Listing: 88 King Street #117 (3/3) - $949,000 [Pacific Union]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

August 3, 2006

Yet Another Data Point At 2760 Sacramento

Perhaps their ears were burning. (Or they decided to capitalize on all the attention 2760 Sacramento #11 was generating on SocketSite.) In either case, 2760 Sacramento #9 just hit the market.

It’s another sweet little top-floor one bedroom unit (we seriously applaud the creative use of space for the crib), which is nicely updated with a granite and stainless steel kitchen (again, notice the Sub-Zero refrigerator), and has a south facing living area (pro: better light, con: faces the street) and deeded parking space.

The price? $769,000. Yes, that’s $114,000 more than #9 sold for three years ago, and $20,000 (or a granite kitchen) more than the new and improved asking price for #11, but it's still $58,000 less than the contract price of #3 ten months ago (which, if you haven’t been “plugging in,” is a bottom floor unit without parking). Anyone still think it’s an unfair comparison or not a trend?

∙ But Isn't The Median Sales Price Up? [SocketSite]
∙ Listing: 2760 Sacramento #9 (1/1) - $769,000 [Hill & Co.] [MLS]
∙ Three Blasts From The Not So Distant Past [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

July 24, 2006

SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 7/24/06

Home sales have been matched by new inventory over the past two weeks as the housing inventory in San Francisco remains relatively unchanged since our last report (7/7/06). In addition, the percentage of active listings that have been re-priced (i.e., reduced) remains at 22% (according to ZipRealty).

∙ A Rapid Inventory Rebound In San Francisco [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

July 21, 2006

But Isn't The Median Sales Price Up?

Last November, 2760 Sacramento #3 (a 1,220 sqft. first floor, one bedroom, one bath condo without parking) sold for $827,000. Three days ago, the asking price for 2760 Sacramento #11 (a 1,220 sqft. top floor, one bedroom, one bath condo with parking) was reduced $40,000 after failing to sell at $795,000.

If you assume parking is worth $50K (which is probably conservative), a selling price of $755,000 is effectively $575/sqft., or about 15% less than the buyers of #3 paid ten months ago ($677/sqft.). Either we're missing something (so let's hear it), or once again, this might be evidence of a potentially troublesome trend.

Regardless, if you’re planning on hitting the open house this weekend, bring your trunks/bikini and a towel. The building has a sweet little pool…

∙ Listing: 2760 Sacramento Street #11 (1/1) - $755,000 [Coldwell Banker] [MLS]
∙ A Troublesome Trend? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (12) | (email story)

July 19, 2006

San Francisco Median Sales Price Rebounds Slightly

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $778,000 last month, up 2.4% from $760,000 in June ’05 (matching the high-water mark of October ’05/April ’06). Sales volume continued to trend down year-over-year (652 sales versus 723 in June ‘05), but showed signs of a slight seasonal up-tick as volume increased 4.2% as compared to June '06 (626 sales).

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in June was $644,000 (up 5.6% year-over-year) and sales volume was 9,892 (down 24.0% from June ’05 but up 9.1% from April ’06). Marin, Napa, and Sonoma continued to record negative year-over-year sales volume growth but all recorded positive year-over-year price appreciation.

From DataQuick president Marshall Prentice, "The Bay Area's market is reaching the end of a real estate cycle, it looks like prices could flatten out sometime this fall. What happens after that is anyone's guess."

∙ Bay Area home sales continue to drop, prices reach new peak [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Year-Over-Year Appreciation Flat [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

July 11, 2006

Bonuses At The Beacon

So while it’s not fifty percent, forty-three percent of the current re-sale listings for 260 King Street (The Beacon) have seen at least one price reduction. Unit #369 is advertising its “Final Price Reduction!” (there have been three) and “Need[s] to Sell Soon!” (it’s been on the market for two months); while unit #555 (floor plan above) “Won’t last long” (although it’s been on the market for four months and has been reduced three times as well).

And as Curbed notes, things might be slowing down at the sales office as The Beacon is now offering “a $2,500 Best Buy Gift Card in addition to our standard 2.5% broker commission fee” for brokers who can help close out the remaining new units. Nothing like a little friendly competition between the sales office and current owners/sellers to keep things interesting.

∙ The Cost Coming Down? [SocketSite]
∙ Listing: 260 King Street #369 (1/1) - $499,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 260 King Street #555 (1/1) - $609,000 [MLS]
∙ Walk Away with a Flat Screen TV [Curbed SF]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

Noe Valley Numbers And Insight

Garrett (of Greg & Garrett fame) was kind enough to drop us a note to let us know that our post on Noe Valley price reductions inspired him to add some Noe Valley sales stats to the Greg & Garrett blog. (We’re suckers for numbers.) The comparison of actual second quarter sales in 2005 and 2006 yields some interesting insight.

Based on Garrett’s numbers, the Average Sales Price of a single family home in Noe Valley increased 17.5% between the second quarter of ’05 and ’06. At the same time, however, the average sales price per square foot ($/sqft) dropped 8.7%. This is perhaps a textbook example of how a change in the sales mix (in this case larger homes) can obfuscate a weakening (depreciating?) housing market.

Even more straightforward, a comparison of condominiums/TICs sales in Noe Valley shows a 5.0% drop in Average Sales Price between second quarter sales in 2005 versus 2006, and a 12.6% drop in the average sales price per square foot ($/sqft).

And yes, we'll be the first to admit that dealing with “averages” can be dangerous, but it's all we've got (for now...).

∙ The Cost Coming Down? [SocketSite]
∙ More Quarter 2 Numbers [Greg & Garrett’s]
∙ It’s All About The Mix [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

July 10, 2006

Increasing Rates, Decreasing Availability

Square Feet points out that rates on home equity lines of credit have nearly doubled over the past two years (now 8.2% on average). And the LA Times runs Kenneth Harney’s piece about a likely increase in “piggyback” mortgage rates and availability. (Piggyback mortgages are second liens that borrowers with less than 20% down payments employ in order to avoid having to pay mortgage insurance premiums.)

The reason for the change, according to Standard & Poor's credit analyst Kyle Beauchamp, is that an exhaustive study of the performance of piggyback loans found them anywhere from 43 percent to 50 percent more likely to go into default than comparable stand-alone first-lien purchase transactions.

According to a study by SMR Research Corp., piggybacks quadrupled their market share between 2001 and 2004. In a sample of loans in California markets, according to the SMR study, the percentage of piggybacks exceeded 60 percent in some cases.

Think San Francisco might be one of those markets?

∙ Rates on home equity lines soar [Square Feet]
∙ Default rate of 'piggyback' loans spurs Wall Street to action [latimes.com]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

July 7, 2006

A Rapid Inventory Rebound In San Francisco

We expected an inventory rebound in San Francisco, just not so quickly. Over 200 new listings have hit - or returned to - the market in San Francisco since the Fourth of July. And it appears that the new listings have outpaced sales by a factor of well over three to one over the past week. So much for “months”...

∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 6/30/06 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

July 6, 2006

Even More Value At The Lansing!

It appears that The Lansing (“Where quality meets value!”) recently (i.e., yesterday) joined the Watermark, 776 Tehama, and 69 Clementina in discounting prices on brand-new condominiums. According to ZipRealty, the list prices for units #305 and #410 in The Lansing were reduced by $31K and $25K respectively.

∙ The Lansing (50 Lansing Street) [SocketSite]
∙ Watermark Signs Of Weakness? [SocketSite]
∙ They’re Back! [SocketSite]
∙ Price Reductions At 69 Clementina [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

June 30, 2006

SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 6/30/06

As far as we can tell, last week marked the first time since the beginning of the year that new sales have outpaced new listings in San Francisco. At the same time, active listed housing inventory in San Francisco remains up ~50% since the beginning of the year, and up ~13% since the beginning of the month. In addition, the percentage of properties that have been re-priced (i.e., reduced) has ticked up slightly and now stands at around 23% (according to ZipRealty).

We attribute last week’s slowdown in new inventory to the upcoming holiday weekend rather than any fundamental change in the market. In addition, we believe that the current pipeline of condominiums and TICs will increase listed housing inventory by 10-15% over the next couple of months days.

And for those of you who are keeping track at home, it appears that we matched those “one-time occurrence” inventory levels of last September last week.

∙ SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 6/1/06 [SocketSite]
∙ Inventory Update: 5/18/06 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

A Troublesome Trend?

Four units in 255 Berry are currently on the market. That's not a lot considering the number of units in the building (100), and not too surprising considering the building recently passed the magical two-year mark (think tax free gains). But then again, perhaps Le Blog Exuberance is on to something?

We were surprised, however, to note that while unit #113 sold for $998,000 ($837/sqft) a month ago, unit #513 (four floors above, but 143 sqft and a half-bath smaller) failed to sell at $849,000 ($809/sqft), and is currently on the market at $799,000 ($761/sqft).

Update: Unit #321 has been reduced to $875,000, #307 is no longer listed, and #309 in now on the market for $1,150,000.

∙ Comments: Arterra: Less Sex, More Green [SocketSite]
∙ Listing: 255 Berry #307 (1/1) - $699,000
∙ Listing: 255 Berry #317 (2/2.5) - $1,325,000
∙ Listing: 255 Berry #321 (2/2) - $889,500
∙ Listing: 255 Berry #513 (2/2) - $799,000

Posted by socketadmin at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (6) | (email story)

June 27, 2006

Two Tuesday Reports

PMI reports that they believe the likelihood of a price decline in the San Francisco Bay Area (San Francisco, San Mateo, Redwood City) housing market now stands at 56%. But as an astute reader pointed out in April, that’s not exactly going out on a limb.

At the same time, CAR reports that that the May ’06 median sales price of an existing, single-family detached home in San Francisco was $770,000 (down from $775,000 in April) and $752,830 in the Bay Area. This represents a year-over-year appreciation of 2.0% in San Francisco (4.3% in the Bay Area).

∙ Economic Real Estate Trends (pdf) [PMI]
∙ Heads You Win, Tails You Lose [SocketSite]
∙ May 06 sales/price report [CAR]
∙ May 2006 Median Home Prices [CAR]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

June 21, 2006

San Francisco Year-Over-Year Appreciation Flat

According to DataQuick, the median sales price for existing homes in San Francisco was $767,000 last month, up only 0.3% from $765,000 in May ’05. In addition, sales volume was down 10.3% as compared to the year prior (626 versus 698 sales) but did show signs of a seasonal up-tick as volume increased 26% as compared to April '06 (497 sales).

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in May was $631,000 (up 6.1% year-over-year) and sales volume was 9,064 (down 19.8% from May ’05 but up 8.4% from April ’06). While Marin, Napa, and Sonoma all recorded negative year-over-year price appreciation and sales volume growth.

∙ Bay Area home sales continue to drop, prices reach new peak [DQNews]
∙ SF Year-Over-Year Appreciation Now At 3.6% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

June 15, 2006

SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 6/15/06

Two different sources, two different statistics, one consistent story: new listings in San Francisco continue to outpace sales. One source pegs the increase of available listed inventory at just over 15% during the past two weeks, while the other suggests closer to 8% (we’re just going to split the difference and call it 11.5%). But don’t forget, neither of these sources takes into account the 1,741 new condo’s that effectively hit the market this weekend (and which would increase "official" inventory levels by well over 100%).

∙ Make That 1,741 [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

June 8, 2006

Harvard’s State Of The Nation’s Housing Report: 2006

Harvard released their annual “State of the Nation’s Housing” report this week. We haven’t had a chance to do anything other than skim the contents (current slowdown should be moderate; most immediate risks: interest rates, erosion of affordability, and growing inventory; long-term outlook for housing is bright), but for those who want to join us in a little light weekend reading (lots of pretty graphics), the full report is available online (warning: 5.1mb pdf). Just remember, they’re talking about macro level trends which may, or may not, be relevant to the local market.

A tip of the hat to the Matrix for pointing out the link to the pdf.

∙ The State of the Nation’s Housing 2006 - pdf [Harvard]
∙ [Getting Graphic] Harvard: The State of the Nation’s Housing 2006 [Matrix]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

June 6, 2006

That's $50,000 Per Week

After less than two weeks on the market, 1515 Lyon Street has been reduced $100,000 (6.9%). Apparently people are getting jumpy out there. And the market has most definitely changed.

∙ Listing: 1515 Lyon (3/3) - $1,350,000 [McGuire] [MLS]
∙ A Premature Reduction? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

June 2, 2006

Party Like It’s 2006

The Wall Street Journal reports on a growing trend of over-the-top parties, gift bags, and celebrity attended events that are being hosted by real estate developers targeting real-estate brokers and potential buyers of high-end condominiums in New York, Florida, and Las Vegas.

The growing glut of expensive condos is pushing high-performing real-estate brokers and deep-pocketed potential buyers onto the "A" list. By supplying them with coveted party invitations and celebrity access, developers hope to reduce the backlog of high-priced luxury condominiums before rival developers can flood the slowing sales market with even more new properties. Developers are going all-out -- with celebrities, showgirls, circus performers and fireworks displays worthy of the Fourth of July. Sales incentives ranging from alligator-leather-covered notepads in Manhattan to $10,000 diamond-encrusted cuff links in Fort Lauderdale are dangled before guests.

Developers say the parties are a bargain considering the prices of the condos, and they generate far better returns than dropping the prices of units does. For a May 11 Manhattan bash near Union Square, developer Gary Barnett spent about $30,000 to promote 39 lofts that start at $2.2 million apiece. In March, he spent $500,000 on a concert attended by 800 brokers and featuring the singer Seal. Several weeks later, he sponsored the "Thank You for Smoking" movie premiere and dinner for 500. Two brokers received a year's use of a chauffeur-driven $108,000 Maserati Quattroporte. Others got shopping trips to Paris for selling the most condominiums in the 550-unit Orion project just west of Times Square.

We’re not expecting to see any celebrities at the One Rincon Hill VIP event next week, but it really ought to be an interesting summer (and 2007) in San Francisco. And just for the record, we’ll take lower prices over the baubles and bonuses every time.

∙ Hoping the Sizzle Will Sell The Steak in Condo Slowdown [RealEstateJournal]
∙ Behind The Velvet Ropes [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

June 1, 2006

SocketSite’s San Francisco Inventory Update: 6/1/06

Based on more “back of the envelope” calculations, it appears that the inventory of listed housing inventory in San Francisco has remained relatively flat over the past two weeks (although up ~8% over the past month). In addition, the percentage of active listings that have undergone at least one price change (some greater than others) remains at ~21% (based on ZipRealty stats).

∙ Inventory Update: 5/18/06 [SocketSite]
∙ We’ve Added “Fantastic” To The List [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

OFHEO Reports 1.15% First Quarter Appreciation For San Francisco

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) released its first quarter House Price Index (HPI) and appreciation tables this morning. According to the OFHEO, “U.S. home prices were 12.54 percent higher in the first quarter of 2006 than they were one year earlier. Appreciation for the most recent quarter was 2.03 percent, or an annualized rate of 8.12 percent.”

For the San Francisco MSA (which includes San Mateo and Redwood City), home prices were 14.60 percent higher than a year earlier, but appreciation for the first quarter of 2006 fell to 1.15 percent, or an annualized rate of 4.6 percent (about half the national average).

“These data show average housing prices still growing stronger than some might have expected,” said [OFHEO Acting Director James Lockhart]. “They do indicate, however, that price growth is moderating in some parts of the country, particularly in areas where prices have been rising the most.”

∙ OFHEO First Quarter 2006 House Price Index Report [OFHEO - pdf]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

May 30, 2006

Families Are Fleeing

While babies are booming in San Francisco, “school enrollment is slipping, and the city's school-age population is sliding.” Why? Families are fleeing the city in search of larger abodes, yards, and “affordable” housing. Go figure.

∙ Lots of toddlers, fewer school-age kids in S.F. [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

May 25, 2006

C.A.R. Reports For April ‘06

According to the California Association of Realtors, the median price of a single-family detached home in the San Francisco Bay area is up 2.9% year-over-year while the pace of sales is down 20.2%. No real surprises when compared to the DataQuick report.

∙ Median price of a home in California at $562,380 in April [C.A.R.]
∙ SF Year-Over-Year Appreciation Now At 3.6% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

May 24, 2006

Speaking Of The Need To Differentiate

There are now 495,000 licensed real estate agents in the state of California (up 14% last year, and up 57% from five years ago). That equates to almost one agent for every 52 adults in the state. Yet another reason to diversify and differentiate…

∙ Real Estate Licensee Numbers Hit Record Levels and Continue to Rise [BusinessWire]
∙ Ooh La La! La Maison [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

May 18, 2006

SF Year-Over-Year Appreciation Now At 3.6%

Two weeks ago we made a relatively bold forecast that year-over-year home appreciation in San Francisco would dip below 6%, and could potentially drop to as low as 4% (based on April closings). Well, it looks like we were off by 0.4%.

According to DataQuick, the median sales price in San Francisco was $778,000 last month, up 3.6% from $751,000 in April ’05. In addition, sales volume in San Francisco was down 27% as compared to the year prior (497 versus 681 sales), and perhaps even more telling, sales volume dropped over 11% as compared to March '06 (561 sales).

For the greater Bay Area, the recorded median sales price in April was $628,000 (up 7.2% year-over-year) and sales volume was 8,358 (down 14.2% from March ’06 and down 25.1% from April ’05).

∙ DataQuick Reports Part 2: The SocketSite Insight [SocketSite]
∙ Bay Area home sales and appreciation slow; new price peak [DQNews]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

Inventory Update: 5/18/06

Based on some back of the envelope calculations, we estimate that listed housing inventory in San Francisco is up over 40% since the beginning of the year and is now within a couple hundred units (or one new development) from the inventory levels of last September (levels that at least one person characterized as “a veritable saturation . . . of way too many homes“ and “a one-time occurrence”).

In addition, over 20% of the active listings in San Francisco have been re-priced (i.e., reduced) at least once (based on ZipRealty stats).

∙ Study finds Bay Area housing prices in line with economic growth [SFHomeBlog]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

May 16, 2006

San Francisco New-Home Sales Decline

Okay, so we overlooked it when the Wall Street Journal ran the piece last week, but we caught it when it hit the Myrtle Beach Sun News (don’t ask). And “It” is a statistic from analyst John Tomlinson at Majestic Research who tracks new-home sales in 40 major markets. According to Tomlinson, year-over-year new-home sales fell 30 percent in San Francisco. Unfortunately we can’t tell if Tomlinson includes condos in his “new-homes” stat; if not, it’s probably not too meaningful in this market, but if so…

∙ Experts predict real estate drop will spread [MyrtleBeachOnline]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

Up Yet Down

CNNMoney reports that while the median sales price of a U.S. home is up over ten percent (10.3%) year-over-year, it dropped 3.3% during the first quarter of 2006. And based on data from the California Association of Realtors, the median sales price in the San Francisco MSA (which includes Oakland and Fremont) was up 5% year-over-year for single-family homes (12.1% for condos and coops). We'll wait for the DataQuick numbers before making any bold statements.

∙ Real estate cools down [CNNMoney]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

May 4, 2006

Let’s Make A Deal!

It’s not the first time that a plasma screen television has been used to sweeten the pot on a listing (“High End 50 inch Pioneer plasma TV, (5) B&W wall spkr. & Woofer included in sale.”). And it’s certainly not going to be the last. So what is it about the listing for 301 Bryant #101 that caught our attention? That would be the “must close by” clause for the free goodies that was removed earlier this week. Oh, and the gorgeous photography.

∙ Listing: 301 Bryant Street #101 (2/2) - $1,048,000 [Pacific Union]
∙ Three In 301 Bryant [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

May 3, 2006

DataQuick Reports Part 2: The SocketSite Insight

Trying to predict the market is often considered a fools game, but we don’t see any reason to let that stop us. Two weeks ago we promised our commentary and insight into DataQuick’s March sales stats for San Francisco, so here we go…

While median sales prices in San Francisco trended up 4.1% to $763,000 in March ‘06, and recorded a very respectable 9.6% year-over-year gain as compared to March ’05 ($696,000), the real story is that they’ve been relatively flat for the past eleven months. In fact, compared to April ’05 ($751,000), the San Francisco median sales price is up only 1.6% (and is still 1.9% below its peak of $778,000 in October ’05).

Now granted, it’s not unusual to see an up-tick in median sales prices from March to April, but even with another 4% gain over March, San Francisco will record year-over-year appreciation of below 6% next month. And based on a two-year linear forecast, the outlook is even more dire: a year-over-year appreciation of 4%.

That’s right, for the first time in years, we just might see the rate of home price appreciation dip below the cost of borrowing (i.e. mortgage rates). The impact? You'll just have to stay tuned for Part 3 (later this week Monday Thursday).

∙ DataQuick Reports Part 1: The Basic Report [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

May 1, 2006

2,700 New Condos On Sale Soon

Thank a change in state legislation (allowing for 3% non-refundable pre-construction deposits) for the boom in new development sales centers slated to open this spring/summer. One such sales center, the 9,000-square-foot, $2.5 million sales center for One Rincon Hill, will feature “a fully appointed, two-bedroom model apartments [sic] with lightboxes simulating views both night and day.”

In total, sales centers representing at least 2,700 new condos should open within the next six months. Included in the mix:

170 Off Third - 198 condos
255 Berry (open) – 99 condos
The Arterra – 268 condos
Broderick Place (open) – 70 units
The Hayes – 128 condos
The Infinity - 650 condos
One Rincon Hill – 695 condos
The Palm (open) – 300 condos
Park Terrace – 110 condos
SoMa Grand – 246 condos

Expect a market in pre-construction speculation to emerge (something to keep in mind when a development touts “Half Sold Out!”).

∙ Condo projects selling first, building later [bizjournals]
∙ San Francisco Perspective: Condominium Developments [SocketSite]
∙ QuickLinks: Building Up [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

April 28, 2006

Stainless-Steel? So What?

As “stainless-steel” has evolved from describing a kitchen outfitted with true commercial grade appliances to simply any kitchen with stainless-steel front panel appliances (a particular pet peeve of ours), high-end manufactures, and consumers, are looking for ways to differentiate themselves from the riffraff. Welcome to the growing trend of supersized appliances.

The bigger-is-better trend is being driven in part by high-end manufacturers that are looking for a new way to distinguish themselves, especially since the commercial look -- such as stainless-steel finishes and double-door refrigerators -- has already trickled down into less-expensive brands. Gigantic refrigerators are riding the "Costco effect," or people's desire for more space to store the items they buy in bulk. Big appliances also tend to have "wow" factor that can help new-home sales, which is especially critical amid fears of a market slowdown.

We’re going to roll right past the irony of the “Costco effect” influencing “high-end” design, and stay focused on the trend of 60-inch ranges, six-foot-wide refrigerators, and ovens capable of cooking 144 cookies at a time. It's something to keep it in mind as you tour all those “stainless-steel”, “gourmet”, and “chef’s” kitchens this weekend. (And what was that about a market slowdown?)

∙ Refrigerator Heaven: Appliances Get Massive [RealEstateTimes]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

April 19, 2006

DataQuick Reports Part 1: The Basic Report

Ten hours later and this is already old news, but for those of you who missed it, DataQuick reported Bay Area sales stats for March this morning.

For the Bay Area, the “median price paid for a Bay Area home was $622,000 last month. That was up 1.0 percent from February's $616,000, and up 9.5 percent from $568,000 for March a year ago. The median peaked at $625,000 last November. Last month's year-over-year increase was the first time was below 10 percent since prices rose 9.7 percent to $443,000 in January 2004.” March sales (9,745) were up from February (6,206) but down 13.8% as compared to March 2005.

For San Francisco, the median sales price was $763,000 in March, up 4.1% from February ($733,000), and up 9.6% year-over-year. As expected, March sales volume (561) was up from February (385), but down 15.0% as compared to March 2005.

We’re saving our commentary (and insight) for Part 2.

∙ Slowdown in Bay Area home sales, appreciation rate [DQNews]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

April 11, 2006

Let The Games Begin

As the Bay Area real estate market continues to evolve, so do the sales tactics. As opposed to specific offer dates and purposely under priced listings -- both of which that are designed to encourage a bidding war -- an increasing number of listings are actually welcoming “offers as they come” (especially when an “offer date” has come and gone…).

Another new twist: actively encouraging “pre-emptive” offers (although we have to ask, without an advertised offer date, pre-emptive to what?). And perhaps it's just a matter of time before "value-range marketing" (in which a price range for a property is advertised) comes to the Bay Area.

∙ Listing: 1870 Jackson #101 - $899,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 1958 Bush - $1,299,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 2954 Webster - $1,125,000 [MLS]
∙ Bait And Switch On MLS? [SocketSite]
∙ Value-Range Marketing Takes Hold [realtor.org]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

April 10, 2006

C.A.R. Concurs: SF Inventory Increasing

Despite what some people would like you to believe, new listings in San Francisco are outpacing sales, and housing inventory is on the rise. Don’t feel like taking our word for it? Perhaps you’ll listen to the California Association of Realtors [via the Chronicle]:

"Inventories have risen to 4.1 months from 2.3 months last year in San Francisco County, to 3.2 months from 1.7 months in Alameda County, to 5.2 months from 1.3 months in Contra Costa County and to 2 months from 1.5 months in Marin County, according to the California Association of Realtors."

Yes, inventories are still at historically low levels, but the dynamics are definitely shifting (especially in Contra Costa County). And don't discount the impact of “unofficial” inventory (unlisted units in new developments, FSBO, etc.).

∙ REALTOR© Hoisted Upon His Own Petard [SocketSite]
∙ Weekend Randomness (And Thanks) [SocketSite]
∙ Rising inventory of unsold homes points to a cooling of the market [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

April 6, 2006

Be Your Own Agent (And Get Paid Even Better)

BuySide Realty quietly launched in California this week under the tag line, “Where it Pays To Find Your Own Home”. The basic premise: you do the research, find the home, and determine what you want to offer while BuySide writes and manages the offer, and then guides you through the closing process should your offer be accepted. At closing, or within 14 days, the buyer receives 75% of the commission offered to the buyer’s agent (i.e. BuySide).

BuySide also offers online property search tools, free phone access to non-commissioned licensed agents (Realtors in fact), and mortgage pre-approvals (through a relationship with Chase).

Funny, just the other day we recieved the following note from a reader, “It kills me [some buyer's agents are] getting 3% for doing nothing except meet with us once or twice and than sign their name to the contract---it's been over almost two months since we heard from [our agent]. We did all the leg work and appointment making ourselves. It's a complete shame that there are a few that ruin it all for the rest.” Not to worry, the days of these few are numbered. (And perhaps we should actually thank them.)

And what’s really ironic? The 25/75 commission split is actually more generous than what the majority of buy side agents would get from their own brokerage (typically split 50/50).

Posted by socketadmin at 12:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (3) | (email story)

March 31, 2006

What’s Really Going On? (Part I And A Half)

Despite all the hype, it appears that “starchitected” condos aren’t actually selling that well in New York (according to the Wall Street Journal). Curbed offers a fine rundown for the subscriptionaly challenged.

The relevance to San Francisco you ask? Well, Damion Matthews (of “What’s Really Going On?” fame) points out the following precious quotes in the Journal:

“The slowdown appears to have prompted some developers to exaggerate their sales figures. Marketers for Mr. Meier's 165 Charles Street, along Manhattan's Hudson River waterfront, had widely distributed information to potential buyers and the media stating that 24 of the building's 31 units had sold. But a look at deeds filed with the city showed a much lower number.”

"Developers try hard to create buzz for a project," says Las Vegas developer Laurence Hallier. "Telling buyers or the media that a project is nearly sold out or is going fast is all part of the game."

Inconceivable! (And yes, we’re still working on Part II of “What’s Really Going On?”) Another noteworthy quote: “…these developers often ignored the first rule of real estate -- location -- and built in marginal neighborhoods far from other luxury homes and upscale stores.” Not that we’re pointing any fingers. Yet.

∙ Condos With a Name: 'Available' [WSJ - $]
∙ Twilight of the Starchitected Condo [Curbed]
∙ Reader Question: What’s Really Going On? (Part I) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

March 29, 2006

Adam Grant Condos: 114 Sansome St.

The 14-story Adam Grant building at 114 Sansome is going condo. Class A commercial condo that is. That’s right, you can now own your office space. And for those who might find this old news, we also offer the lineup for their Grand Opening this week:

Welcoming escorts; catering by MeMe Pederson; professional billiards player, Jeanette Lee (aka “the Black Widow”) challenging guests to games; a complementary Cigar Lounge hosted by Sherlock’s Haven; and a full bar + wine tasting bar by Niebaum-Coppola.

Now that’s an opening. And the real question, other than whether or not we’re going invited, is: how long before all the new residential condo buildings are forced to start following suit?

∙ Adam Grant Condos [adamgrantcondos.com]
∙ The Adam Grant Building [emporis]
∙ Miami Investment Group Purchases 114 Sansome St... [grubb-ellis]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

March 24, 2006

New Home Sales Plunge In The West

Right on the heels of Thursday’s report of an increase in previously owned home sales, the Commerce Department reports that national new home sales fell by 10.5% last month - the largest drop in nine years.

And perhaps more noteworthy for readers of SocketSite, new home sales in the West dropped by 29.4% (while sales actually rose in the Northeast and Midwest).

∙ New Home Sales Down by Most in 9 Years [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:56 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

March 23, 2006

ARM Use Down (Insert Pun Here)

According to DataQuick Information Systems, 51.9% of all California home purchases involved adjustable-rate mortgages this past February (down from 70.9% three months ago). Numerous factors at work (including a flattening yield curve and a regulatory crack down), but one quote from DataQuick President Marshall Prentice that hit home:

"It's a lot easier to loan somebody money when the collateral is going up in value at more than twenty percent a year, than when values are going up at half that rate. What we have here is a market cycle that has passed its frenzy phase and is moving into more balanced territory."

Or put another way, in a slowing market, both lenders and potential homeowners are less willing to take a financial gamble based on “guaranteed” home appreciation. And hard evidence of a shift in market psychology is right before our eyes.

∙ Steep drop in California ARM use [DQNews]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

San Francisco Prices Up/Sales Down

According to the California Association of Realtors, Bay Area median home prices gained 1.7% last month, and on a year-over-year basis remain up 6.1% (8.0% in San Francisco County). Not too surprisingly, Bay Area sales volume was relatively flat as compared to January (-0.4%) and sales volume continues to fall on a year-over-year basis (-12.3%). Overall, relatively in line with DQNews.

Trying to make sense of the seemingly contradictory 'prices up, volume down, and inventory building' stats? You’re not alone.

∙ February 2006 sales/price report [C.A.R.]
∙ February 2006 Median Home Prices [C.A.R.]
∙ San Francisco Sales Slide In February [SocketSite]
∙ It’s All About The Mix [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

March 20, 2006

Projecting A 12.5% Default Rate On ARMs

Originally we wrote, “Nothing new, but a good reminder from The Wall Street Journal”. And then we re-read the last sentence of the third paragraph:

“In the hot housing market of recent years, many households took advantage of "affordability" mortgage loans -- heavily promoted by lenders -- that hold down payments for an initial period. Now the initial periods are coming to an end on many of these loans, leaving borrowers to face resets of their interest rates that can cause monthly payments to shoot up between 10% and 50%.

More than $2 trillion of U.S. mortgage debt, or about a quarter of all mortgage loans outstanding, comes up for interest-rate resets in 2006 and 2007, estimates Moody's Economy.com, a research firm in West Chester, Pa.

Most borrowers will be able to cope with the coming wave of resets, in some cases by refinancing with new loans, lenders and mortgage industry analysts say. But some borrowers will have trouble meeting the higher payments and may be forced to sell their homes or could lose their homes to foreclosures. A recent study by First American Real Estate Solutions, a unit of title insurer First American Corp., projects that about one in eight households with adjustable-rate mortgages that originated in 2004 and 2005 will default on those loans.”

Projecting a default rate of 12.5% for adjustable-rate mortgages that originated in 2004 and 2005? And the majority of new Bay Area mortgages have been adjustable-rate over the past couple of years? This ought to be interesting.

∙ Millions Are Facing Squeeze On Monthly House Payments [RealEstateJournal]
∙ An ARM (And Quite Possibly A Leg) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

A Market (And Columnist) In Transition

Last April, Inman News columnist Dian Hymer wrote, “Should I buy in a hot real estate market?” This January, “Buyers gain power in today's real estate negotiations”. In February, “Balanced market creates new approach to home selling”. And this morning? Welcome to “Cooling real estate market presents challenge for sellers”:

"The housing market has changed. There are fewer multiple offers. Negotiation is back in vogue. Listings, in general, are taking longer to sell. And some listings are not selling at all.

What are your options if your home is less desirable in the current marketplace than you'd hoped it would be?

One option is reduce your price. Another is to hold out for a while, hoping that the market improves to meet your price. In most cases, however, the latter option is unlikely to yield results."

Any predictions for Hymer’s April 2006 headline? And interesting how other sites choose to ignore that first ‘The housing market has changed’ paragraph…

∙ Cooling real estate market presents challenge for sellers [Inman - $]
∙ What choices are there for homes that aren't selling? [SFHomeBlog]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

March 19, 2006

Et Tu Inman Redux

The Inman Blog continues to raise the eybrows of their bread and butter (i.e. the industry) as they offer the following three quotes to characterize the health of the California housing market:

"The market came to a screeching halt in February" (attributed to“long-time Realtor in Sausalito”), "It is the pits" (attributed to "VERY big broker"), and "It could get very bad this time around" (attributed to“Marin County broker”).

The best reader comment: “Hmmm... Prelisting cleaning, 6 month LAs, bargaining, negotiation. I remember what we used to call that...normalcy.”

∙ Three data points [Inman Blog]
∙ Et Tu Inman? [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

March 16, 2006

San Francisco Sales Slide In February

According to DQNews, “Bay Area home sales remained at their lowest level in five years in February, as price increases continued to slow….” San Francisco sales volume is off by almost 19% compared to 2005, and although the median sales price rose 1.5% last month, year-over-year appreciation now stands at 4.9%.

That being said, DQNews also reports, “Indicators of market distress are still largely absent. The use of adjustable-rate mortgages has decreased significantly the last three months…Down payment sizes are stable and there have been no significant shifts in market mix…”

∙ Slowdown in Bay Area home sales, appreciation rate [DQNews]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

March 13, 2006

The Bear

A loud "Amen!" with regard to reducing your exposure to "variable-rate or interest-only loans”, but damn, even we’re not as bearish as financial consultant, and author (Sell Now! : The End of the Housing Bubble), John Talbott:

“According to San Francisco's LoanPerformance.com, half of all Bay Area home buyers used interest-only loans to make their purchases last year. With so much of their income already relegated to their mortgage payment, says Talbott, even a small rise in interest rates will push many to -- and beyond -- their limit. For others, a divorce or job loss will spell financial ruin.”

“The problem, he says, is that home prices are way overvalued -- just as Internet stocks were during the 1990s before that sky collapsed. As evidence, he points to the growing discrepancy between Bay Area home prices and rents, an indicator commonly used by economists to determine a property's true value.”

“People should protect themselves, Talbott says, by divesting themselves of any investments in real estate, including stock. They should sell their vacation homes. They should get out of any variable-rate or interest-only loans. They might even consider selling their primary residence, investing that money in something other than real estate, and renting for awhile.”

Here’s what we say: if you won’t be able to afford your “investment” (i.e. property) should interest rates rise and/or the market turns, then now might be a good time to either consider selling, or to reconsider any irrationally driven (e.g. “prices always go up” or “if you don’t buy now, you’ll be left behind forever”) urges to buy.

Otherwise, just don’t worry about it (too much).

∙ A BULL, A BEAR AND THE BUBBLE [SFGate]
∙ Don’t Fear The Bubble [SocketSite]
∙ Sell Now! : The End of the Housing Bubble [Amazon]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

March 10, 2006

Weekend Update: Sales Follow-Up

Lots of questions with regard to sales activity for three of the New Developments we’ve recently profiled, so let’s do a quick rundown to kickoff the weekend (and help you plan your open house stops this Sunday):

1. 1725 Washington: Three (#3, #9, #14) of the fourteen units we profiled a month ago have sold, eight units remain active in the MLS, and three units (#4,#7,#12) have yet to be added to the MLS. (And yes, #2 and #6 remain "Sold" BMR units.)

2. 1625 California: Of the seven “2ND Release now available! Going fast!” units we featured two weeks ago, one (#55) has gone pending, while the other six remain available (a couple after 3+ months).

3. 1551 Filbert: After 45 days, one (#1) of the three “truly special & will not last” TICs has garnered an offer (#2 and #4 remain Active).

And no, we're not implying that the market has "popped", "crashed", or "tanked". Just that it has changed. And that "if you build it they will buy it (regardless of the design, price, or marketing)" thinking might just be a thing of the recent past (along with "guaranteed” double-digit appreciation).

∙ Update: 1725 Washington Street [SocketSite]
∙ 1635 California Street [SocketSite]
∙ For Sale By Owner Listed! [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Sales/Prices Trend Down [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

March 6, 2006

The San Francisco Stare-Down

So is it a simple war of the wills, or a real war of the wallets? From the New York Times:

Along much of the East and West Coasts, home buyers and home sellers are engaged in a stare-down.

Many buyers, having heard that the real estate market is a bubble in danger of popping, are refusing to offer the asking price on a house, convinced that it will soon drop. But many sellers are not blinking either, thinking that offers will improve when the weather does and biding their time until then.

As a result, the housing market is now in a deeply confusing state, with average prices still rising even though homes are taking much longer to sell and the number on the market has soared. Sometime soon — probably in the spring, the peak sales season — one side or the other will have to capitulate, many economists and industry executives predict.

Well, while the weather didn’t improve this weekend, San Francisco open house traffic did. At the same time, increased talk of sellers countering below asking offers they currently have in hand. And as a Realtor® was kind enough to point out, inventories continue to build heading into the spring market.

∙ Hoping for Best in Home Sales, 2 Sides Sit Tight [NYT]
∙ REALTOR© Hoisted Upon His Own Petard [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

March 1, 2006

REALTOR© Hoisted Upon His Own Petard

Yesterday SocketSite caught a local Realtor, and popular blogger, using statistics from the MLS to prove that demand is outstripping supply in the San Francisco housing market (and to “back up what is usually [his] gut-feeling about the San Francisco housing market”).

While we applaud the Realtor for attempting to use analytic (versus anecdotal) information to prove his point, unfortunately we must report that his analysis was flawed, and that the “hard data” he provides actually suggests the exact opposite trend: over the past couple of weeks, "supply" in San Francisco has increased faster than "demand"...

In the Realtor’s original post, he highlights the following statistics for the week ending 2/20/06: 173 'New Listings', 229 'In Contract', 105 'Closed Escrow', 485 'On Tour', 1029 'All Active'; and for the week ending 2/27/06: 180 'New Listings', 258 'In Contract', 123 'Closed Escrow', 505 'On Tour', 1055 'All Active'.

Based on these statistics, the Realtor then draws the following conclusions (he has since removed the first paragraph and edited the second):

“In my world, what this says is that there is new inventory coming on the market, but not enough to satisfy the demands of the buyers. Last week there were 56 more units put into contract than what came on the market. This week that number jumped up to 78. If I were a sensational journalist, I would run a BOLD headline stating that we're almost out of housing inventory, with the ratified differential increasing by a whopping 40%!

But that's not really the point. It is, however, really important to note that there are more properties selling than are coming on the market in the past two weeks. February 2005 was probably the hottest month in the history of San Francisco real estate, so I was expecting this to happen again in 2006. Will it continue? Perhaps not to this extent. But it's nice to know [sic] see some hard data to back up my predictions.”

The Realtor’s conclusions are based on the assumption that 258 new contracts were written last week, an assumption that seemed wrong (call it a “gut-feeling”). As such, we requested that the Realtor confirm his report of 258 new contracts last week (and 229 the week before). The Realtor responded by providing the following update and clarification:

“…there were 258 properties listed as having been changed to 'Active Contingent' or 'Pending' in the past seven days…I'm seeing that 120 properties changed from Active to Active Contingent and 166 were changed to Pending (which could have been a change from Active or from Active Contingent -- which skews the data a bit).”

“Meanwhile, the new listings are actually 'new' listings, not properties that are back on the market. There is a different search criteria for BOM properties (which I have also just added) [editor’s note: 35 properties last week]. And sold listings are just that, sold & closed escrow (but last week were Pending).”

(For background, an MLS listing typically takes the following path: from ‘Active’ (no accepted offer), to ‘Active Contingent’ (accepted offer with a contingency in place – e.g. inspection), to ‘Pending’ (all contingencies removed/waived), and finally to ‘Ratified’ (sold). And the length of time it take a property to move from Active Contingent to Ratified is variable, but usually ranges from 30 to 60 days.)

The Realtor’s clarification suggests that while 215 listings were added to last weeks 'supply' (180 New + 35 BOM = 215), only 120 were newly in 'demand' (i.e. moved from Active to Active Contingent). (Granted, a small percentage of listings might have moved directly from Active to Pending, but that is usually an exception rather than the rule.) All this is to say that the “hard data” presented by the Realtor actually suggests that housing ‘supply’ outpaced ‘demand’ in San Francisco by up to 95 units last week (a far cry from the Realtor’s initially reported shortfall of 78 units).

SocketSite presented our calculations to the Realtor to double-check our analysis. In response, the Realtor posted the following:

“I never intended for this blog to be a full-time job, so I've decided not to continue to post or defend these statistics. The MLS does not offer a definitive way to see how many listings went from Active to Ratified, and I don't have the time or energy to individually analyze the Pending properties. If I find an argument-proof way to provide people with details on the market, I will do so. In the interim, I will only apologize to those that might have found the stats helpful.

I still stand by my opinion as a full-time, working real estate agent that the market is moving quickly in many neighborhoods and property types, while still offering opportunities for those that are willing to put in some extra work to find them.

Even in February and August of last year you could have easily found properties that were sitting on the market, and made an argument that the market was tanking, but we all know in hindsight that was not the case.”

We’d actually ask the Realtor to continue to post the raw MLS statistics (despite the fact that they might conflict with his “gut-feeling” about the market) as we, and we’re sure others, find them valuable. And we agree, there will always great investment opportunities for those who put in the work to find them (regardless of the market). But folks, anecdotal evidence shouldn’t be a substitute for analytics when making an investment.

We’d like to believe that if a stock broker suggested buying a stock based on his “gut-feeling” that demand was greater than supply, you might ask for (and analyze) some “hard data” before making a trade. And call us crazy, but in the case of a house, we’d like to believe that you might actually ask (and analyze) twice.

∙ Some Stats from the MLS... [SFHomeBlog]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

February 28, 2006

San Francisco Sales/Prices Trend Down

On a year-over-year basis, home prices are up 6.1% in the Bay Area (8.1% in San Francisco County) according to the California Association of Realtors. Yes, single-digit year-over-year appreciation for San Francisco County. Historically irrelevant, but it’s quite a change from the past couple of years of “guaranteed” double-digit appreciation.

And last month, both sales volume and median prices fell (-32.9% and -0.8% respectively) for homes in the San Francisco Bay Area (prices fell 1.2% in San Francisco County).

∙ Jan. 06 sales/price report [C.A.R.]
∙ January 2006 Median Home Prices [C.A.R.]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

February 27, 2006

San Francisco Population 400,000?

Results of the Bay Area Council’s annual poll have been released.

Although 35 percent of respondents ranked transportation as their highest concern, 19 percent said housing was the biggest problem. Forty percent said they have considered moving out of the region, and 70 percent of those cited high housing costs as a major factor.

In 1996, as the real estate market began to recover from the early 1990s recession, only 1 percent of respondents cited housing as a big concern.

The high cost of housing is a concern? That’s no surprise. Forty percent of the population is actually considering moving out of the region? Surprise.

∙ Cost of housing among area's top woes [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

February 24, 2006

Speculators in San Francisco?

An excerpt from this week’s Surreal Estate:

Recently, San Francisco has added protections to make Ellis Acting less desirable. Just this week, the California Court of Appeals upheld a new law that would compel landlords to give each legal tenant 120 days' notice and $4,500 (up to three tenants) to help with new housing costs after an Ellis Act eviction. Protected tenants are also offered an additional $3,000 and one year to move.

There is also pending legislation that would penalize any property that has been the site of a "dirty eviction" of an elderly or disabled tenant, making it impossible for that building to be converted to condominiums.

Indeed, according to landlord attorney Jeffrey Woo, the extra laws created to discourage owner move-in evictions have largely backfired by making Ellis Act evictions increasingly common.

"People are clearing out more units than ever before," Woo says. "It has also brought in the speculators. They realized, 'I don't even have to live there. All we have to do is Ellis Act it and we can sell the TICs.'"

Speculators in San Francisco? All together now…Inconceivable!

∙ The many faces of protected tenant status [SFGate]
∙ Ellis Act Relocation Assistance Upheld [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (1) | (email story)

Economic Impact Of Industry Slowdown

A couple of interesting paragraphs from Inman News yesterday:

“As real estate industry layoffs continue and the toll mounts, some industry experts predict a toll of as much as 40 percent of existing jobs lost by the end of the year, while others insist that the WaMu layoffs [2,500 jobs] are just an anomaly.”

"The real estate occupations tend to be more flexible and move with the economy because everyone knows they are cyclical," said Dr. Delores Conway, director of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecasting Project at the University of Southern California Lusk Center for Real Estate.”

“It might seem that one way to chart a drop-off in the real estate profession would be to tally the number of real estate licenses being granted. But, according to Vince Malta, the president of the California Association of Realtors, historically there is a two-year lag between a change in the housing market and any change in membership.”

“The California Association of Realtors has 180,000 members at present and Malta predicts there will be 210,000 members by the end of 2006. California's Department of Real Estate currently has 475,000 current real estate licensees. Malta said the Real Estate Commissioner predicts there will be 500,000 licensees by June. "Generally there is a lag," Malta said.”

“As far as the state of California's real estate market, Malta said, "We are still projecting the state to have about 620,000 single-family (sale) transactions this year. The record is 625,000 last year and 624,000 in 2004, so we're going to still have a good year in terms of transactions. We are going to have a more balanced market.”

A couple of key words: “cyclical”, “lag”, and “balanced”.

∙ Real estate slowdown leaves casualties [Inman - $]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

February 19, 2006

Hot Housing Design Trends

Fixing to flip or ready to renovate? Eight trends in home design you need to know (according to CNNMoney.com):

1. The bathtub: Yesterday - whirlpool; Today - soaking tub; Tomorrow - infinity tub?
2. Paint colors: Yesterday - neutrals; Today - bold; Tomorrow - chameleons?
3. Kitchen: Yesterday - uniform design; Today - mix and match; Tomorrow - anything goes?
4. Kitchen cabinet woods: Yesterday - cherry; Today - anegre; Tomorrow - teak?
5. Counters: Yesterday - solid surfacing; Today - granite; Tomorrow - still granite?
6. Wood floors: Yesterday - red oak; Today - white oak; Tomorrow - bamboo?
7. Appliance colors: Yesterday - black; Today - stainless steel; Tomorrow - full overlay?
8. Appliances: Yesterday - trash compacter; Today - wine cooler; Tomorrow - cheese cooler?

Anegre? Who knew.

∙ What's hot in home design [CNNMoney]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

Fiserv Says San Francisco Home Prices To Drop 1.9%

Fiserv Lending Solutions (a provider of mortgage and consumer lending services) is forecasting a 1.9% drop in home prices for the San Francisco MSA in 2006.

Unfortunately we’ve never heard of Fiserv Lending Solutions, have no insight into their methodology, and have no idea how accurate any of their forecasts have been in the past (or if they even have a “past”). It’s just another data point (but from within the industry).

∙ Price forecasts for 379 metro areas for 2006 [CNN/Money]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | (email story)

February 17, 2006

We Agree With David (Sort Of)

For the past eight months we’ve been yammering on about “risky mortgages”. Why? We’ll let David Lereah (chief economist for the National Association of Realtors) explain:

“Home price appreciation, after reaching an astonishing estimated 12.7 percent national annual rate, will decelerate back into single-digit territory, registering 6.1 percent and 7.3 percent for existing and new home prices, respectively.

This cooling is exactly what markets need today, because it helps check the rise in speculative buying and the growth in risky mortgages, such as the interest-only loans we started seeing at the height of the boom.

That risk-taking changed the residential real estate landscape in significant ways by encouraging some investors to flip properties and home buyers to spend beyond their means.

There will be some adjustment, of course, as many of the hottest areas transition from a seller’s to a buyer’s market.

We’re already seeing inventories rise and days-on-market increase as buyers and sellers search for equilibrium in pricing, with buyers saying no to double-digit price hikes and sellers dragging their feet before agreeing to adjust their price downward.”

We’re just surprised nobody saw that coming. Oh, wait a minute…

∙ Sometimes, second is best [Realtor.org]
∙ An ARM (And Quite Possibly A Leg) [SocketSite]
∙ We're Raising The “Bubble Alert” Level To Yellow [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

Condo’s Going Up. Prices Coming Down?

No mention of San Francisco in today’s New York Time’s article about the impact of speculators exiting the condo market ("Farewell, Condo Cash-Outs"), but it’s still relevant. And worth a quick read.

While investors made up only 9.5 percent of residential mortgages nationally in the 10 months through October, according to First American Corporation's LoanPerformance, a San Francisco mortgage data firm, the numbers are much higher in places like San Diego, where investors represented 13.5 percent of residential mortgages, and Miami, where they were 16 percent.

Hans Nordby, research strategist at Property and Portfolio Research in Boston, said those numbers underreport the real level of speculation in those markets because many buyers disguise their intentions when they get their mortgages. As those speculators flood the market, he said, they will put pressure on other sellers to cut prices, too. "A rising or sinking tide affects all boats," Mr. Nordby said.

Still, a sell-off in speculative condos is unlikely to start a widespread housing crash, because condos were more overbuilt than single-family homes during the recent boom, said Joseph Gyourko, professor of real estate and finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. But weakness in the condo market, he said, "is a consistent indicator that the great boom has really ended."

Perhaps now would be a good time to familiarize yourself with SocketSite’s growing New Developments archive.

∙ Farewell, Condo Cash-Outs [NYT]
∙ San Francisco Perspective: Condominium Developments [SocketSite]
∙ QuickLinks: New Condos On The Market (Or In The Works) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:56 AM | Permalink | Comments (7) | (email story)

February 16, 2006

Rates Cheap. Houses Not Cheap.

According to the most recent DataQuick report, Bay Area home sales plunged last month while prices held steady. From the Chronicle:

Bay Area home sales tumbled to their lowest level in five years last month, and prices hovered well below record territory, further evidence that the region's seemingly unstoppable housing boom may have peaked with the blistering market of 2005.

What remains to be seen is whether the new figures amount to a hiccup or the beginning of prolonged slowdown.

Rising interest rates, and tighter lender standards, seem to be taking a lot of the blame. A quote from the director of the Center for the Continuing Study of the California Economy in Palo Alto: "People chose to bet on future appreciation by choosing loans where they knew payments would go up by a lot -- but they got in cheap…There are no cheap loans now."

The scariest thing? Current mortgage rates are still well below historical averages (second to last graph).

∙ Home sales falter, hinting at slowdown [SFGate]
∙ Interest Rate Trends [Mortgage-X]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:07 PM | Permalink | (email story)

February 14, 2006

“Marin Home Sales and Prices Plunge”

Ron Parks of Vision Real Estate, and publisher of The Marin Report, definitely caught our attention with that headline. The first three paragraphs of his most recent monthly market trends report:

“What a way to start the year. Home sales in Marin County, while not at their lowest level ever, are certainly close to it. With only 114 homes sold in January, sales were off 28% from December and 24% from January 2005. This is the third lowest number of sales in any one month since we've been keeping records: January 1998.

The median price of single-family homes in Marin County also took a nose-dive in January, falling 8.6% from December to $877,500, and, gasp, down 5.7% from January 2005. This is the first year-over-year drop since June 2003. Also, it's the first time the median price has been below $900,000 since December 2004.

The question becomes, is this an aberration, or the start of a new trend? On one hand, the depth of the plunge in January is an aberration. On the other hand, the trend is towards a buyers' market. Looking at pending sales, we see an increase of 13% for homes and 29.6% for condos this month. This portends increasing sales in the month's ahead.”

Foreshadowing, or simple red herring for the San Francisco real estate market? The next CAR report is due out on 2/28/06, so be sure to stay tuned...

∙ The Marin Report [website]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

February 1, 2006

Our Readers Know Better. Right?

Please don't join the ranks of those who are in over their heads when it comes to servicing their debts (mortgage payments?), and are banking on double-digit home appreciation to make everything okay.

Regardless, and as we previously posted, “My house is worth a Million” really isn’t a retirement plan.

∙ Americans' Savings Rate Declines in 2005 [SFGate]
∙ Charles Schwab Says... [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

January 30, 2006

Single Price Reductions Are Just So Early January

Guessed wrong Overly optimistic about the value of your listing? You’re not alone. Looks like “Second Price Reductions” might be a growing trend as you can add 897 Hayes Street (reduced $200K and advertising: “Second Price Reduction - - Bring all offers") to the list.

∙ Listing: 897 Hayes Street - $1,095,000 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | (email story)

January 25, 2006

December Prices and Sales Fall In San Francisco

The California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reports that both prices and sales of single family homes fell this past December in the San Francisco Bay Area. According to C.A.R., the median sales price fell 1.4% while sales volume fell 9.8% from the month prior (down 14.2% from December 2004).

As it stands, year-over-year price appreciation for single family homes in the San Francisco Bay Area now stands at around 8%, well below the double-digit appreciation of the past couple of years. It’s also interesting to note that statewide sales prices for single family homes remained flat (condo prices actually fell by .8%) and sales were off by 17.6% compared to December 2004.

∙ December 2005 Regional Sales and Price Activity [C.A.R.]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:07 PM | Permalink | (email story)

January 20, 2006

Declining Sales (And Prices) In December

According to DataQuick and the Chronicle, Bay Area single-family home sales were down 15.5% compared to December 2004 and the median sales price dropped 3.5% as compared to November 2005. It should be interesting to see what The California Association of Realtors reports on January 25th.

Slowing sales, increasing inventories, and falling prices in the Bay Area? Who would have thunk it? Oh, wait a minute...

∙ Bay Area home sales down in December, prices slide [SFGate]
∙ Top O’ The Market To You! [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:54 AM | Permalink | (email story)

January 13, 2006

Is Silicon Valley Once Again Leading The Way?

From the Realty Times:

However, a growing number of buyers who purchased homes at peak price periods in 2005 may now be living in homes worth tens of thousands of dollars less than their mortgage. That's more likely if they used heavy leverage financing tools like no-money down and piggyback loans or interest-only and payment-option mortgages -- as an increasing number of buyers do in Silicon Valley's expensive market.

It's not just Silicon Valley's housing market feeling the pressure. Santa Clara County's neighbor to the north, San Mateo County, has a housing market that lopped more than $100,000 off its median single-family home price since it's peak in early 2005.

Anyone who claims that it’s impossible for housing prices to drop in San Francisco (just 20 miles north of San Mateo) is not only ignorant, but irresponsible.

∙ Silicon Valley Inches Toward Buyers Market [Realty Times]
∙ Gravity hits home values [bizjournal]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:21 PM | Permalink | (email story)

On Tour as Repeat

Buyers rejoice. Home inventories are once again on the rise as sellers and agents re-list properties that failed to sell last year and which had been withdrawn from the market during the slow holiday season.

Expect a trickle (flood?) of properties marked “On Tour as Repeat” (i.e. re-list, failed sale, or price adjustment) under “Tuesday Tour” on the listing details page of the MLS.

Posted by socketadmin at 2:26 PM | Permalink | (email story)

January 6, 2006

Fleeing California? You're Not Alone

United Van Lines has tracked state-by-state migration patterns since 1977. From its most recent report:

For 2005, the accounting is based on the 226,353 interstate household moves handled by United among the 48 contiguous states, as well as Washington, D.C. In its study, United classifies each state in one of three categories -- “high inbound” (55% or more of moves going into a state); “high outbound” (55% or more of moves coming out of a state); or “balanced.” Although the majority of states were in the “balanced” category last year, several showed more substantial population shifts.

For the first time since 1995, California ranked as a “high outbound” state (55.7% of moves outbound).

∙ United Van Lines Releases 2005 Migration Study [United Van Lines]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:54 PM | Permalink | (email story)

January 4, 2006

San Francisco Sales Continue To Fall

In case you missed it, home sales in the San Francisco Bay Area fell 6% this past November (-14% compared to the year prior), while the Median Sales price was relatively unchanged at $723k (+.5%).

∙ Median price of a home in California at $548,400 in November [CAR]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:00 AM | Permalink | (email story)

January 3, 2006

Can You Say Speculative Bubble Froth?

"At the same time rental rates were dropping, we had housing prices totally skyrocketing". Credit Andrew Zacks, a “San Francisco lawyer who handles Ellis Act evictions and other land use cases” with that comment. A comment that points to a market driven by speculative froth rather than sound investing (i.e. banking on the appreciation of, rather than the income derived from, an asset).

∙ Renters getting deja vu to bad old dot-com days [SFGate]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:50 PM | Permalink | (email story)

December 23, 2005

Sales Of New Homes Tumble

US new home sales fell 11% in November, the biggest drop since 1995, and at 1.25m homes sold, the lowest pace since January. It is important to note that new home sales are considered to be even more of a leading indicator of market health than existing home sales (which dropped 10.8% last month in the Bay Area).

∙ New home sales tumble 11 percent [CNN]
∙ New Home Sales Fall More Than Expected [SFGate]
∙ QuickLinks: Housing Sales Slowdown [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:25 AM | Permalink | (email story)

December 15, 2005

QuickLinks: Housing Sales Slowdown

∙ Bay Area home sales dip, but prices remain strong [SFGate]
∙ Sales of new homes plunge [sacbee]
∙ Resale housing market continues to cool [Auburn Journal]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:12 PM | Permalink | (email story)

December 12, 2005

San Francisco's Shrinking

More coverage of the net migration out of San Francisco that we first reported in June: according to CNN/Money, three percent of San Francisco's population has moved to Stockton, Sacramento, and Vallejo. That’s 21,000 fewer buyers/renters milling about the city.

∙ High housing prices are driving residents from many U.S. metro areas [CNN/Money]
∙ San Francisco Population Drops 4.2% [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | (email story)

November 28, 2005

California Median Home Prices And Sales Fall

Today’s California Association of Realtors press release carries the bold headline: “Median price of a home in California at $538,770 in October, up 17.2 percent from year ago; sales decrease 2.8 percent”. And while prices are indeed up from a year ago, they are DOWN from the previous month (“The October 2005 median price decreased 1 percent compared with September’s $543,980 median price.”).

In addition, “C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in October 2005 was 4 months, compared with 3 months (revised) for the same period a year ago.” The press release also included the following:

“Note: Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand.”

In other words, even if “median sales prices” are increasing, it could be due to a changing sales mix (i.e. wealthy owners/investors getting while the getting is good) rather than any real home value appreciation. Keep that in mind while we report that the median sales price in the San Francisco Bay Area ticked up 1.4% from September to October, while sales activity fell nearly 10% during the same period (and over 10% year-over-year).

∙ California Association of Realtors Press Release (11/28/05) [CAR]
∙ October 2005 Median Home Prices Chart [CAR]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:45 PM | Permalink | (email story)

US Existing Homes Sales Down, Inventory Up

We’re not too surprised by a winter sales slowdown, but the nationwide inventory numbers caught us by surprise. According to Reuters:

Sales of existing U.S. homes slowed in October and the inventory of unsold houses rose to the highest level in nearly 20 years, a trade group said on Monday in a report confirming the end of the nation's housing boom.

Sales of previously owned homes fell 2.7 percent from September's upwardly revised 7.29 million unit annual pace, and the drop would have been even larger if not for a surge in home-buying linked to Hurricane Katrina, the National Association of Realtors said.

"The housing sector has likely passed its peak ... and the boom is winding down to an expansion," NAR chief economist David Lereah said. "Many of our hot housing markets are transitioning from a sellers' market to a buyers' market."

Welcome to transition.

∙ US Existing Home Sales Fall 2.7 Percent in October [Reuters]
∙ Top O’ The Market To You! [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:30 AM | Permalink | (email story)

November 22, 2005

Over Half Of San Francisco Loans Interest-Only

According to LoanPerformance, San Francisco had the second highest percentage of interest-only loans originated during the first half of 2005. At 53.4%, it was second only to Santa Cruz/Watsonville (54.8%), and almost double the national average of 28.5%. Oakland wasn’t that far behind at 48.8%.

Guess they believe Bob. The good news? 53.4% might be significantly less than previous estimates of nearly 70%.

∙ Boast Busters In The Making [SocketSite]
∙ Interest-only loans meteoric rise in the Bay Area [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 2:43 PM | Permalink | (email story)

November 18, 2005

Top O’ The Market To You!

Inventories and interest rates are up, sales are down, and prices are either flat or falling. So we’re calling it: welcome to the top of the San Francisco housing market!

For sale signs are popping up left and right, and as one seasoned agent recently commented, “we’re going to wake up one morning and it’s going to be like it snowed ‘For Sale’ signs the night before.” In addition, thousands of new condominium units are either coming on the market, currently under construction, or have recently been funded.

Long-term rates continue to climb, but more importantly, short-term rates have climbed even more: one-year ARMs are at a three year high and are closing in on the 30-year fixed rate. This is extremely significant in a market where buyers have turned to short-term ARMs for affordability reasons rather than financial wherewithal.

The difference in monthly payments between a one-year ARM at 4% versus a one-year ARM at 5% is over 14% (that’s an extra $400 per month on a $600k loan). In other words, and from a cash flow perspective, prices would need to fall at least 14% in order to maintain the same level of affordability in the marketplace.

Year-over-year sales have declined for the seventh month in a row, and the median sales price has flattened over the past quarter. And while many agents are still quick to point out the year-over-year positive appreciation in prices, that number is meaningless if you purchased a home during the past couple of months over which the median sales price has actually fallen.

We’re not predicting, we’re just observing and calling a spade a spade (or a duck a duck). Welcome to the top of the market.

∙ Bay Area prices slow as mortgage rates rise [Chronicle]
∙ San Francisco Housing Inventory: Up, Up, And Away! [SocketSite]
∙ Bay Area Inventories Up, Agent’s Spirits Down [SocketSite]
∙ Median San Francisco Bay Area Home Prices Down $20k [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 8:43 AM | Permalink | (email story)

November 17, 2005

San Francisco's Home Sales Slump

Via Inman News: “San Francisco Bay Area home sales declined on a year-over-year basis for the seventh month in a row in October, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a real estate information company. The median home price in October was up 17.2 percent since October 2004 but slipped 0.3 percent from September 2005.”

Catch where we’re going with this?

Posted by socketadmin at 4:08 PM | Permalink | (email story)

The Tide Has Turned In Sacramento

We missed it, but luckily The Housing Bubble 2 didn’t. According to Sacramento’s News 10.Net, “A report from the California Building Industry Association shows new home sales in Northern California fell 40 percent during the past three months, compared to the same period last year. It's the sharpest such drop in the last 15 years.”

Anyone else spotting any trends here?

∙ New Home Sales Drop Sharply [News10]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:34 AM | Permalink | (email story)

Look At All That Pretty Green

According to Lyon Real Estate, Sacramento County housing inventory has tripled since March of this year, while total sales have declined.

Once again, it's not the Bay Area, but we’re still building up to that...

∙ Sacramento County Homes for Sale vs. Sold vs. Pending [Lyon RE]

Posted by socketadmin at 7:15 AM | Permalink | (email story)

Writing On The Wall

“U.S. housing starts fell 5.6 percent in October as construction of both single-family and multifamily homes slid, while a drop in permits for future groundbreaking was the largest in more than six years, the government said on Thursday.”

Granted, not Bay Area specific, but perhaps even more telling. And a perfect setup for our announcement tomorrow...

∙ Housing starts and jobless claims fall [Yahoo!]

Posted by socketadmin at 6:55 AM | Permalink | (email story)

November 8, 2005

Boast Busters In The Making

To be fair, this isn’t nearly as much of a boast as the original, but it still needs some busting. Under the Inman headline “Realtor questions value of interest-only real estate loans”, columnist Robert Bruss downplays the potential of a “financial foreclosure debacle”. According to Bob:

“...after the first 10 years, most of these [interest-only] mortgages are "recast" and become fully amortizing for 20 years. More likely, the borrower will sell the home and pay off the mortgage.”

“Interest-only mortgages allow first-time home buyers to get started building home equity. They are also ideal for home buyers who expect to stay in their homes less than 10 years.”

“I hope today's versions of interest-only mortgages won't have the same sad result that occurred during the Great Depression...Frankly, I'm not worried.”

Bob might not be worried, but we sure are. San Francisco inventories are already on the rise, and over the past couple of years, the majority of new Bay Area mortgages have either been interest only or adjustable rate. Now guess what happens when, as Bob points out is most “likely”, they all try to sell at the same time?

And understand that the only way holders of interest-only mortgages “build equity” is through speculation (i.e. increasing property values). Over the past quarter, median sales prices in the Bay Area have started to retreat. And never mind a down market, even a flat market can be disastrous for those who have banked on speculation to “build equity” due to transaction, maintenance, and carrying costs.

The fact that numerous buyers turned to interest-only or short-term adjustable rate loans for affordability reasons, rather than investment prowess (i.e. maximizing cash flow/tax deduction), is going to have a huge impact on the market. And not in a good way for those who have only recently entered the market.

Posted by socketadmin at 9:49 AM | Permalink | (email story)

November 7, 2005

San Francisco Housing Inventory: Up, Up, And Away!

According to the HousingTracker, San Francisco housing inventory is up over 36% over the past two months (based on active MLS listings). That’s a good statistic, but don’t pay too much attention to the HousingTracker “Median Price” number which represents median list/asking prices (as opposed to actual sales prices).

Posted by socketadmin at 3:32 PM | Permalink | (email story)

October 26, 2005

Median San Francisco Bay Area Home Prices Down $20k

According to the California Association of Realtors, the Median sales price of a San Francisco Bay Area home fell 2.8% last month (from $730k in August, to $710k in September). In addition, sales volume was down nearly 10% from the previous month and down over 8% year-over-year (yes, accounting for that dreaded seasonality).

Funny how some local industry sites choose to focus on either the more rosy year-over-year numbers (or worse, irrelevant national sales statistics). If you live in the Bay Area, the local statistics are what you should be watching (and mining for trends). As they say, past performance is no guarantee of future returns...

∙ Median California Home Prices And Sales Activity [C.A.R.]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:17 PM | Permalink | (email story)

October 17, 2005

We’re Moving On Up!

According to a Global Insight study, the San Francisco real estate market is overvalued by approximately 36% (up from 30% at the beginning of the year). As such, San Francisco is considered to be “extremely overvalued”. What’s that mean?

“Study findings indicate that 53 metropolitan areas, representing 31 percent of the total value of the US housing market, "are extremely overvalued" and face a high risk of price correction. To be considered "extremely overvalued," markets had to have current prices exceeding the expected price by 30 percent or more, a threshold that was determined from the median degree of overvaluation that preceded 63 known local price drops over the past 20 years.”

So if you’re planning on making a 10% down payment, imagine losing 300% of your investment. Yes, the dark underbelly of “leverage” that most agents never talk about; you can lose more than you invest. Much more.

∙ Overvalued Housing Market? Depends Where You Live [Global Insight]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:57 PM | Permalink | (email story)

October 16, 2005

Bay Area Inventories Up, Agent’s Spirits Down

This should come as no surprise to any regular SocketSite readers, but if you haven’t been reading or are new to our community here’s a bit of insight: inventories are up, transactions and selling prices are down, and Bay Area real estate agents are actually having to sell. Some choice quotes from this mornings Chronicle:

“Amid a perceptible cooling in the housing market and a jump in the number of homes for sale, Bay Area real estate agents find they must do something they haven't done in years: sell.”

"In the last few years, you put something on the market for two weeks, and you didn't have to do anything," said Falconio, an associate manager at Prudential in San Francisco. "Now you have to work for it a little bit more."

“The supply of condos offered through the Multiple Listing Service surged 57 percent between Oct. 1, 2004, and Oct. 1, 2005, while single-family home listings have soared 35 percent.”

“Sales, meanwhile, have slumped 26 percent and 14 percent for single-family homes and condos, respectively, between September 2004 and September 2005"...

“As the nearly decade-long housing boom appears to be losing steam, the balance of power is shifting noticeably toward buyers, according to agents, often among the first to see a turn in the market. Other reports based on federal data or local recorder-assessor filings tend to lag the market by a few months.”

"We need to start marketing properties at listing prices (sellers) are willing to accept," said agent Roger Landry.

"Sellers are sometimes the last to know," said Bodnar. "They think they're still going to get 20 percent or 30 percent over (the asking price), but now they may find that offer dates are coming and going with no offers."

"The market has slowed, but not that much," said Calhoun, owner of Creekside Realty in San Jose. "I don't know anyone who's complaining about homes selling in three weeks."

We just couldn’t help but end on that optimistic note. Although kind of reminds us of that agent’s “Don't be fooled into thinking that this stockpile of inventory is a trend. It is a one-time occurrence. And you can quote me on that” boast that we’re busting...

∙ MARKET TILTING TOWARD NORMAL [Chronicle]
∙ Boast Busters (SocketSite Style) [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 11:40 AM | Permalink | (email story)

October 15, 2005

Forget Staging, It's Now About Posing

An instant classic! A reader forwards an email they recieved promoting a friend-of-a-friends open house this weekend. The classic excerpt:

"I have an open house this Sunday from 2-4 and would greatly appreciate if you stopped by and simply pretend to be interested buyers."

Brilliant. And yes, we have the address and listing details, but we’re protecting the (not so) innocent (for now). Suffice it to say, the open house with the disproportionate number of “interested” (and outwardly vocal) parties is probably the one. And please remember, don't always believe the hype.

Posted by socketadmin at 12:31 PM | Permalink | (email story)

October 11, 2005

San Francisco Loses 85,000 Jobs

Well, so much for justifying the San Francisco real estate run-up over the past five years on a booming local job market. According to the Examiner, “San Francisco has lost 85,000 jobs since 2000 when the flood of high-paying technology jobs began drying up.” That’s 10% of the entire City’s population. Any agents care to comment?

∙ S.F. commissions economic study [Examiner]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:25 PM | Permalink | (email story)

October 10, 2005

Boast Busters (SocketSite Style)

On September 20th, real estate agent Matt Lanning posted the following to his blog:

There is a veritable saturation in the market this week of way too many homes. This will last for a couple of weeks, then that will be it, more or less, for the rest of the year. Don't be fooled into thinking that this stockpile of inventory is a trend. It is a one-time occurrence. And you can quote me on that.

Okay, we will. A couple of weeks have now passed and we’ve been waiting with bated breadth. We know California inventories have since spiked, but what about San Francisco and the Bay Area? Consider this a general “shout out” to all our readers and a request for any and all information on local inventory levels (email: tips@socketsite.com).

Posted by socketadmin at 11:17 AM | Permalink | (email story)

Word Of The Day: Palpable

Under the heading “Signs of a changing real estate market”, Inman News kicks off a three-part series on the rapidly changing real estate market. And wouldn’t you know it, Northern California takes center stage.

Visitors cruised through the two-bedroom, one-and-a-quarter-bath Northern California home offered for $479,000, but "not as many as there would have been six months ago, or even three months ago," said Maggie Resnick, the Prudential California Realtor overseeing the open house. "The market has changed, and it changed quickly."

Out of 11 people who cruised through the house in Richmond, Calif., three couples were neighbors checking out the house and three were selling their own homes and looking for marketing ideas and comparing prices. The lone remaining visitors, a couple currently renting in Richmond, were the only potential buyers – and they said they were "not interested" in the house.

“August is slow, so everyone said maybe that was what was going on," said Resnick. "Then September came, traditionally a busy time, but things are still not going quickly. There's a palpable change in the market."

That’s right, “palpable”. And although we try not to link to sources that require a subscription, in the case of Inman News, the current days articles are free. So if you’re going to read the full article, do so before midnight tonight.

∙ Signs of a changing real estate market [Inman]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:19 AM | Permalink | (email story)

October 7, 2005

Not Only Fashion Trends Move East To West

For months we’ve been keeping our eyes on the steady uptick of San Francisco listings that have languished in the market and have finally succumbed to the dreaded scarlet “r” (i.e. reduced). We’ve seen nothing, however, to rival what’s starting to happen in New York. Can you believe a million dollar price drop on a $2.4m penthouse listing? Yes, a drop of over 37%.

So now that a 1.2% reduction at 199 New Montgomery doesn’t seem so interesting, perhaps some of our loyal readers would be so kind as to point us in the direction (i.e. email tips@socketsite.com) of any local listings that seem to be following in New York’s footsteps. Anonymity guaranteed for all agents. Really.

∙ PENTHOUSE HIT$ ROCK BOTTOM [NYPost]
∙ REDUCED!! OFFERS ANYTIME [SocketSite]
∙ The New New Pricing Thing? [SocketSite]
∙ Housing Prices Always Come Back [SocketSite]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:34 PM | Permalink | (email story)

October 4, 2005

Sign Of The Real Estate Times

Have you noticed that the San Francisco Real Estate Times is quickly approaching the thickness of a small town phone book? Page count has increased 30% since September ’04 (yes, we keep a library of old issues). Now granted, we now suffer more full page ads trying to justify million dollar Bernal Heights homes, but still, there are significantly more “listings” being marketed. Again, just another data point.

Posted by socketadmin at 9:28 AM | Permalink | (email story)

San Francisco Inventories On The Rise

Although a 16% increase in the San Francisco for-sale listings is hardly substantial, it is directional (and important to note). According to the New York Times:

For-sale listings have also swelled throughout California, according to the California Association of Realtors. In the San Francisco Bay area, they have increased 16 percent in the last year, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage said...

"We are seeing a market in transition," Leslie Appleton-Young, the association's chief economist, said.

Brokers said that some houses seemed to be on the market longer because sellers priced them too high, assuming that their value was still rising sharply. In other cases, people who otherwise would have waited a year or two to sell their homes - like empty nesters ready to move into smaller quarters - had listed them now out of fear that prices would soon fall.

Some economists and commentators have for years predicted the bursting of a real estate bubble, and previous slowdowns have turned out to be relatively brief pauses before prices started accelerating again.

But with mortgage rates now rising, the cost of gasoline hovering at or near $3 a gallon and house prices in some areas out of reach for many families, brokers and analysts said they thought that this slowdown could be the real thing.

Again, even with the 16% increase in inventories, the San Francisco market remains a “sellers” market (based on historic metrics). But if it’s a trend, and new developments continue to come online in SOMA, Mission Bay, and Bayview, then watch out. The tide could quickly turn.

∙ Slowing Is Seen in Housing Prices in Hot Markets [NYT]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:03 AM | Permalink | (email story)

September 27, 2005

Three Months Of Stagnating Prices In San Francisco

According to the California Association of Realtors (CAR), the median sales price of a SF Bay Area home was $730,360 this past August (and sales volume dropped 3.7% compared to August ’04). While this does represent a $6k increase in the median sales price from July ‘05, it is still $4k below the June '05 mark of $734k.

The CAR spin is “Sales in the San Francisco Bay Area continued to fall below last year’s pace, but remain at elevated levels that approximate the market in 2003…(and) the median price continued its trend of year-to-year percentage increases in the low teens.” True, but this is effectively the third month of no movement. Or taking a lesson from CAR, “a three month trend representing a zero percent annualized gain”...

∙ Median price of a home in California at $568,890 [CAR]

Posted by socketadmin at 4:10 PM | Permalink | (email story)

September 16, 2005

Sticks And Stones...

Nothing like being labeled a housing “Danger Zone” (as if earthquakes weren’t enough). CNN/Money confirms that the majority of buyers in San Francisco (and 49% of buyers in Oakland) are resorting to “non-traditional” loans. Not new news to our readers (other than the moniker), but the quote from the chief economist with the National Association of Realtors surprised us a bit. Looks like he’s starting to hedge his “we’re not in a bubble” bets:

At greatest risk, says David Lereah, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, are markets where a majority of buyers are opting for nontraditional loans.

"There will be cases where lenders and borrowers will be caught with their financial pants down," he says.

· Crazy loans: Is this how the boom ends? [CNN/Money]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:34 PM | Permalink | (email story)

August 29, 2005

Los Angles Snickers, San Francisco Shudders

Unfortunately we’re not that only ones that keep an eye on The Housing Bubble 2. Nor is it likely that we were the only ones that noticed their reference to a recent LA Times article:

Homeowners took $59 billion in cash out of their houses in the second quarter, double the amount in the 2004 quarter and 16 times the average rate of the mid-1990s, according to data released this month by mortgage giant Freddie Mac.

If mortgage rates rise sharply or home prices fall, many homeowners could be in financial turmoil. They may be unable to service their loans, or could even find that their homes are worth less than their mortgages.

Such a prospect seems unimaginably distant to Doug Levy, a university administrator in San Francisco.

When his two-bedroom condominium rose in value by 10% — which took nine months in the hot Bay Area real estate market — Levy refinanced. That increased the size of his mortgage but gave him $25,000 to pay bills and take a modest skiing vacation in British Columbia. He's considering tapping his equity again if his condo continues to appreciate.

"It's like I'm sleeping in my piggy bank," said Levy, 44. "In this market, real estate is a liquid asset."

Damn it Doug, stop consuming real estate. And please stop talking to the LA papers. You're killing us.

· Equity Is Altering Spending Habits and View of Debt [LA Times]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:01 AM | Permalink | (email story)

August 25, 2005

Agent Market Insight (And Confession)

In doing some research this afternoon we came across the San Francisco Real Estate blog, hosted by “realtor michelle”, a ten year real estate veteran of San Francisco Real Estate. Michelle’s post from June 9th caught our eye:

As more and more agents see offer dates come and go, pricing will be adjusted to compensate for the lack of dramatic overbids. We’re being instructed to list only as low as the seller is will to accept an offer. Used to be we would under list the property to allow enough room for the dramatic overbids. I believe those times are ending. Too many offer dates have come and gone with no offers. [ed note: all emphasis added]

We definitely appreciate Michelle's candor. And agree with her assessment.

Posted by socketadmin at 1:58 PM | Permalink | (email story)

August 23, 2005

San Francisco Bay Area Sales And Prices Down

According to the California Association of Realtors, the median sales price for existing homes in the San Francisco Bay Area dropped 1.3% from June to July. Perhaps more importantly, sales volume was down 12.1% from June to July of this year, and down 16.3% compared to July 2004 (i.e. accounting for seasonality).

And although we don’t have figures for San Francisco, the C.A.R. “Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in July 2005 was 3.2 months, compared with 2.4 months (revised) for the same period a year ago.” A 33% increase.

· July 2005 Regional Sales and Price Activity [C.A.R.]

Posted by socketadmin at 5:13 PM | Permalink | (email story)

The Story Within The Story

Okay, while we might have branded “Mid-Market eyed for unusual projects” a non-story, it’s the story within the story we actually find quite interesting. In specific, the “tiny condo” movement.

...Group I is building 60 tiny condominiums a block from Market Street. The project has attracted attention because of the small size of the units, their relative affordability and the lack of parking because of its transit-rich corridor location. The condos at 83-91 McAllister St. start at 225 square feet and will be priced in the $200,000s and up, project manager Dan Paris said.

A first glance, we love it. And it’s quite “affordable”. But at nearly $1,000/sqft. it’s damn expense for any part of San Francisco (including Pacific Heights). Hell, that’s expensive (and small) for even New York or London!

Posted by socketadmin at 4:13 PM | Permalink | (email story)

August 17, 2005

Just A Typo (But Not Ours)

Our eyes widened as we did the math this morning. The Examiner reported a median San Francisco home/condo sales price of $786k in July of 2004 versus $804k in July of 2005...that’s an anemic 2.3% annual growth rate!

But alas, it was just a typo in the print edition of the Examiner (we checked with the author). The July 2004 median home/condo sales price should have been reported as $704k (for an actual one-year price gain of 14.2%). Damn, we thought we had a story...

Posted by socketadmin at 3:48 PM | Permalink | (email story)

August 16, 2005

Bay Area Sales Slowdown

According to DataQuick, July Bay Area home sales were down 11.9 percent from the month prior. Interesting, but not too surprising considering the typical summer real estate slowdown. Perhaps more telling, however, is the fact that San Francisco sales were down 21% compared to July of 2004 (i.e. apples to apples).

· Bay Area: Home sales and prices step back from peaks [DataQuick]
· Overheated Bay Area home sales take a breather in July [Chronicle]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:06 PM | Permalink | (email story)

August 15, 2005

Home Prices Up (And Down)

According to the latest survey by the National Association of Realtors®, existing single-family home prices in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont MSA increased by 12.3% over the past 12 months (versus 13.6% nationally). Impressive, but trending down from a nearly 15% gain from 2003 to 2004. And we’d still like to see a breakout for San Francisco County in specific.

· Most Metro Areas See Historically High Home-Price Gains [N.A.R.]
· Home prices post record gains [CNN]

Posted by socketadmin at 12:20 PM | Permalink | (email story)

August 11, 2005

Reading Between The C.A.R. Lines

According to the California Association of Realtors, the median sales price of a San Francisco Bay Area home increased 1.8% from May to June.

At the same time, C.A.R. reports that the affordability index (i.e. percentage of households that can afford a median priced home) in San Francisco County increased from 8% to 9%.

So unless household incomes have significantly increased over the past month (which we doubt), and assuming that interest rates haven't dropped (which they haven't), it appears that the median sales price of a home in San Francisco proper has actually dropped over the past month.

· California's Housing Affordability Index – June ‘05 [C.A.R.]

Posted by socketadmin at 3:14 PM | Permalink | (email story)

August 10, 2005

We're Raising The “Bubble Alert” Level To Yellow

We’re wishing we hadn’t already used-up our “An ARM (And Quite Possibly A Leg)” headline. Considering how alarmed we’ve been with the explosion of ARM financing, we’re down right terrified with the adoption of “option ARMs”.

A couple of excerpts from today’s WSJ article “Sore ARMs? A Peek Inside Potential Mortgage Troubles”:

[California] has one of the frothiest housing markets, and banks have been enablers.

A small Newport Beach, Calif., bank with a stock-market value of $2 billion, Downey writes option ARMs like Californian plumbers write screenplays.

As of June 30, $12 billion, or 87% of Downey's ARMs are option ARMs. Its customers have racked up $72 million in additional balances on those mortgages by choosing to make minimum monthly payments. That's called negative amortization.

Downey Finance Chief Tom Prince says concerns about option ARMs are exaggerated and that his bank previously has had even more exposure to them without problems. "I'm not particularly concerned about it," he says.

Maybe not, but we are (concerned that is).

· A peek inside potential mortgage troubles [WSJ via Post-Gazette]
· Option ARMs Fuel Bubble But Should We Worry? [RealEstateJournal]

Posted by socketadmin at 1:49 PM | Permalink | (email story)

August 9, 2005

Survey Says...

We need a bigger audience. SocketSite's first "Highly Scientific Real Estate Survey" garnered slightly fewer responses than we hoped (well okay, a lot fewer). Considering we’re tracking around 10,000 views a month, and doubling every 30 days, you’d think that we might get a little more love participation from our readers (not to be confused with a little love from NAR).

So we've decided not to completely embarrass ourselves by revealing the total number of completed surveys we received (suffice it to say that we needed more than just our fingers to tabulate the results, but that the super computer is sitting idle). We will, however, share a couple of survey results...

1. The majority of respondents (63%) predict an increase in housing prices through the end of 2007.

2. Californians remain more positive about the San Francisco housing market than non-Californians.

3. Agents remain more positive about the housing market than non-agents.

4. Only one brave soul was willing to go on record and predict a “popping” of the “bubble” sometime over the next two years (and it wasn’t even us).

Thanks to all that participated.

Posted by socketadmin at 9:54 AM | Permalink | (email story)

August 8, 2005

Euro Subterfuge

We’re tired of hearing it: “Compared to London or Paris, San Francisco looks cheap to the Europeans. Especially with the strength of the Euro.” All the while the London market seems to be tanking, and according to the Economist, “Investors from outside North America bought $8.6 billion-worth of real estate [in North America]…but sold $11.6 billion.” That hardly seems to qualify as a Euro feeding frenzy (and leaves us wondering what they know that we don't).

Posted by socketadmin at 9:34 AM | Permalink | (email story)

August 5, 2005

Opinion Survey: Last Chance

Have an opinion about where the San Francisco real estate market is headed over the next two years? Willing to challenge the “Industry Experts”? Today’s your last chance to take SocketSite’s Highly Scientific Real Estate Survey (a whopping four multiple choice questions). Come on people, every vote opinion counts.

· SocketSite’s Highly Scientific Real Estate Survey [Zoomerang]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:24 AM | Permalink | (email story)

July 29, 2005

QuickLinks: Friday update (updated)

Home Depot Approved: Hope you brought that popcorn (and a chair).
· SF Commission OK's Home Depot Plans [KRON4]
· Heated meeting over Home Depot plan [Chronicle]

PMI Risk Report: Okay, this time SocketSite was only a day earlier in reporting.
· Home value declines seen as more likely [Chronicle]

SocketSite Survey: Damn those “Industry Experts”, we want to hear from YOU.
· SocketSite’s Highly Scientific Real Estate Survey [Zoomerang]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:34 AM | Permalink | (email story)

July 28, 2005

Calling All “Industry Experts”

Headlines coming out of the Inman News’ Real Estate Connect conference this afternoon: “Industry leaders predict slowing market”. To which we respond: no kidding, it’s about time, and how about some hard numbers from these so called “Experts”?

So instead of simply nodding our head at the vague predictions of six conference panelists, we decided to go out on a limb and generate some real "guidance". Now please take a couple of seconds to participate in SocketSite's first highly scientific real estate survey (seriously, it’s only four multiple choice questions).

Posted by socketadmin at 4:40 PM | Permalink | (email story)

Here We Go Again

Remember last May when we first suggested you take a look at the Spring PMI Risk Index? And then how two months later Kiplinger’s finally gets around to publishing a story about the report and gets all the press? Well, here’s another two-month head start for the SocketSite community...

According to the PMI Group’s Summer Market Risk Index, the chance of a price decline in San Francisco increased 6.4% last quarter (the third largest increase amongst all the major MSAs), and now stands at an overall 45.9% likelihood of decline. That’s not good.

Marco Van Akkeren, an economist with PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., explained, "We are continuing to witness record-pace home price appreciation in many markets without the necessary gains in income, home affordability and rent inflation. This is causing the current home price environment to diverge from long-term economic fundamentals, which cannot be sustained indefinitely."

Across the bay Oakland hit 50.9% to become only one of six US markets with a greater than 50% chance of decline.

· Economic and Real Estate Trends: Summer 2005 – pdf [PMI Group]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:49 AM | Permalink | (email story)

July 25, 2005

Sales Activity: National Versus Local

According to the National Association of Realtors, national existing home sales came in at a record setting annual pace of 7.33 million homes as measured in June. And according to the California Association of Realtors, statewide home sales are up 3.6% as compared to June of 2004.

Sales activity in the San Francisco Bay Area, however, fell 11.1% as compared to June of 2004 (up 15.5% from last month). And the median sales price increased to $734,610 (+1.8%), reversing last months downward slide.

· Existing Home-Sales Smash Record Again [NAR]
· June 2005 Regional Sales and Price Activity [CAR]

Posted by socketadmin at 10:57 AM | Permalink | (email story)

July 22, 2005

Not The “P” But The “E”

You might recall our previous discussion about San Francisco’s housing P/E. In summary, it’s out of whack.

From an investing perspective, while the cost (Price) of an investment in San Francisco real estate has risen, the returns (Earnings) have remained flat. This suggests that the majority of buyers are banking on appreciation (i.e. speculating), which is not a problem as long as the market continues to climb. Either that, or rents have to go through the roof...

· Area rental prices ignore housing bubble [Chronicle]
· Modest rise in apartment rent [Examiner]

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July 11, 2005

Et Tu Brute?

The senior vice president and chief economist for the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® recently penned an article for Realtor® Magazine titled “Keep a cautious watch”. The three trends he suggests we keep a cautious eye on:

∙ Speculation: This form of investing can be risky when buyers go out on a limb with interest-only mortgages and other forms of financing that make sense only in a market of continuing strong price gains. If those gains ease this year, as we expect them to do in some markets as sales cool, investors are exposed to potential losses.

∙ Soft underwriting: We’re seeing an upward swing in adjustable-rate loans and other forms of alternative financing at a time when 30-year fixed-rate financing remains at a historically low 5.75 percent. With long-term rates this low, we would expect to see adjustable-rate financing at 25 percent of the market, but instead we’re seeing it at 30 percent to 40 percent of the market. [editorial note: closer to 70% in San Francisco]

∙ High price-to-income ratio: Home prices are rising faster than household income, particularly in states with the hottest markets. In California the price-to-income ratio was 32 percent last year, up from 23 percent in 2003. The greater the gap, the harder it becomes for households to buy. [editorial note: San Francisco's affordability index now stands at 8% of households]

· Keep a cautious watch [Realtor®]

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June 30, 2005

San Francisco Population Drops 4.2%

According to a report just released by the Census Bureau, the population of San Francisco declined 4.2% (or 32,000 people) from April 2000 to July 2004.

According to CNN, “Hurt by skyrocketing housing prices, people are leaving San Francisco, Boston and other large cities in droves.” "Droves" might be a bit of an overstatement, but once again, directionally interesting.

· Census lists fastest-growing cities [CNN]

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June 29, 2005

Price Drop In San Francisco Bay Area

According to the California Association of Realtors, the Media sales price of a single-family detached home in the San Francisco Bay Area dropped .2% (from $723,070 to $721,730) in May of this year. Granted, not a huge decline, but directionally interesting. Also of note, sales activity has declined 8.3% from a year ago.

· Median price of a home in California [C.A.R.]

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June 28, 2005

The New New Pricing Thing?

10% of the listings featured in HILL & CO’s full page Sunday Real Estate ad screamed “PRICE REDUCED!" Perhaps under pricing listings to generate bidding wars is so last year, and the new new pricing thing is to over price in order to make buyers feel like they’re getting a bargain when it’s reduced?

All relatively high-end properties, but that’s usually a leading indicator (of you know what). The three properties:

· Listing: 2705 Buchanan - $3,695,000 [MLS]
· Listing: 145 Mallorca - $2,595,000 [MLS]
· Listing: 2253 Franklin - $1,795,000 [MLS]

Posted by socketadmin at 9:15 AM | Permalink | (email story)

June 13, 2005

Reduced! At 199 New Montgomery

It’s only been a few months since a bidding war left 199 New Montgomery “sold out” and at least seven units are back on the market (i.e. being flipped). In the current market it wouldn’t really catch our attention except that at least one unit (#506) is already being advertised as “Reduced!” Any owners or insiders care to comment?

We’re struggling to decide if we should post this under “Listings” or “Trends”. Screw it, we’ll just add it to both.

· Listing: 199 New Montgomery #506 [MLS]

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June 8, 2005

Investing In The Bubble

Entrepreneurs from coast to coast are creating investment funds and ancillary businesses to capitalize on any downturns in the real estate market.

One such “opportunity fund” has a stated plan of acquiring “new and converted condominium units purchased by speculators” and then holding them for “extended periods or shorter-term ownership followed by profitable resales”. Short-term ownership followed by profitable re-sales? Good old irony in the making.

In the meantime, perhaps they should just load up on some Hedgelets.

· Cleaning up when housing bubble bursts [Chronicle]

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May 26, 2005

Real Estate Investment Clubs On The Rise

Since the end of 2002 the number of real estate clubs affiliated with the National Real Estate Investors Association has grown 300%. And since 1999, the number of stock market clubs has dropped nearly 50%.

Remember back when all water cooler, coffee house, and cocktail chatter revolved around stock picks, options, and un-realized capital gains? These days? Houses, appreciation, and un-realized capital gains. Or as one Yale economist notes, "The explosion of real estate groups is symptomatic of the shift of our exuberance from the stock market to the housing market.”

The good news, it’s easier than ever to find a Bay Area real estate investors club. The bad news, it’s easier than ever to find...

· Real estate investment clubs build up [USA Today]

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May 20, 2005

Interest-only loans meteoric rise in the Bay Area

Financial savvy for some, financial folly for others. According to The Chronicle and LoanPerformance, in 2002 less than 20% of property purchases in San Francisco utilized interest-only mortgages. In 2005? Nearly 70%.

And according the Federal Reserve, owners' equity in household real estate has grown 46 percent over the past four years while mortgage debt has grown 56 percent. People are consuming, not investing, in real estate.

Red flags abound.

· High interest in interest-only home loans - POPULAR BUT DANGEROUS [Chronicle]
· High interest in interest-only home loans - RISK [Chronicle]

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