Having forecast the average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages would begin rising in the second half of 2014 and end the year at “around 4.6 percent” as of two months ago, Freddie Mac lowered their forecast today and now expects the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to end the year at at “around 4.4 percent.”

Having averaged around 6.7 percent over the past twenty years, last week the average rate for a conforming 30-year mortgage ticked down to 4.13 percent, 45 basis points below the three-year high rate of 4.58 percent recorded this past August and 24 basis points lower versus the same time last year.

The all-time low rate of 3.31 percent was recorded in November of 2012.

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Comments from “Plugged-In” Readers

  1. Posted by Keepitup

    Got my 2.8% V tied to 10 yr Tee’s and my 3.8% F @ 30 with Refi’s before Frank/Dodd and going long.

    Locked in my property tax rate in 1992…..Prop B.

    Now that our Guberment is in control of lenders….thank you Frank/Dodd…. it’s going to be a bitch to get qualified for a loan. Been looking at HELOC’s and most banks are not in the mood to loan money.

    Recovery…….??? Only if you believe in the tooth fairy….maybe.

  2. Posted by Rillion

    Read that China is buying a record amount of US Treasury bonds in order to keep rates low despite the improving US economy. Their goal being to weaken their currency and keep the US importing Chinese made goods.

    • Posted by soccermom

      Interesting profile on Janet Yellen in the New Yorker (namelink) recently. The Fed itself has displaced China and Japan as the largest purchaser of treasuries with quantitative easing.

      As Yellen is apparently concerned with main street as much as Wall Street, and as her tool-at-hand is keeping interest rates low, the Freddie Mac prognostication of higher rates by year end was both dubious and probably a politically calculated move to try to keep a lid on RE prices.

      As year end approaches, Freddie Mac doesn’t want to look so obviously silly, and hence change their tune.

      I think we are witnessing purposeful asset re-inflation via cheap(er) money instead of a genuine recovery. But hope springs eternal.

    • Posted by EBGuy

      China’s holdings are down year to year (May 2014, $1270.9 billion compared to May 2013, $1297.3). Don’t know about the last month (see name link for data).

  3. Posted by SFrentier

    Alls well that ends well.

  4. Posted by Keepitup

    @soccermom

    “I think we are witnessing purposeful asset re-inflation via cheap(er) money instead of a genuine recovery. But hope springs eternal.” Agreed, but how’s that Frank-Dodd thing working for y’all. It’s one thing to have cheap money flowing to the banksters but as a consumer just you try and get your hands on it.

    I think the hegies have finally given up on chasing returns in the REO market place and the real issue driving the market is boatloads of hot money flowing from China for U.S. RE. The average consumer has been priced out of many markets and the banks aren’t making is easy to get loans.

    I own some multi-family units in Dallas. Rents are now on par with home ownership. Yet the movement into home ownership is lagging and rents are creeping up with most MF apartment developments seeing rent increases. New MF development is almost non existent in North Dallas. Most MF developments have burned off all concessions in their competing markets. This is a new first for this market. As my asset manager says…”we are in uncharted waters”. It’s a good time to be in the MF market place in North Dallas. Investment fund managers are beating on our doors to get us to sell.

    Hey Janet…keep those rates low for as long as you want.

  5. Posted by soccermom

    We get what we ask for.

    If the public is upset banks caused an economic collapse by lending to uncreditworthy borrowers, we should not be surprised when banks have higher standards for lending after being reprimanded. The average joe may not benefit from low rates because the average joe doesn’t have his financial act together.

    (This is where I do my ‘Smart people should move to Vallejo’ bit).

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