According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home values in the San Francisco MSA ticked up 0.5% from December 2013 to January 2014. Up 22.1% on a year-over-year basis, the San Francisco Index remains 16.9% below a May 2006 peak.
For the broader 10-City composite, home values were unchanged from December to January and are up 13.5% year-over-year but remain 20.4% below a June 2006 peak.
The Sun Belt showed the five highest monthly returns. Las Vegas was the leader with an increase of 1.1% followed by Miami at +0.7%. San Diego showed its best January performance of 0.6% since 2004. San Francisco and Tampa trailed closely at +0.5% and +0.4%. Elsewhere, New York and Washington D.C. stood out as they continued to improve and posted their highest year-over-year returns since 2006. Dallas and Denver are the only cities to have reached new record peaks while Detroit remains the only city with home prices below those of 14 years ago.
While home values ticked up for the top and bottom thirds of the San Francisco market, they slipped for the middle tier, the third consecutive decline for the middle of the market which hasn’t happened since the third quarter of 2011.
The bottom third (under $488,183 at the time of acquisition) gained 0.6% from December to January (up 32.8% YOY); the middle third dropped 0.5% from December to January (up 21.9% YOY); and the top third (over $788,312 at the time of acquisition) gained 1.0% from December to January, up 20.0% year-over-year.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back above August 2003 levels (37% below an August 2006 peak); the middle third slipped back to August 2004 levels (18% below a May 2006 peak); and the top third is just below July 2005 levels and within 4% of an August 2007 peak.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA slipped 0.3% from December to January 2014, the fourth month in a row without any gains. That being said, condo values are up 23.9% year-over-year and within 5.1% of their December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).