January 16, 2014

Mortgage Rates Drift Down Amid Signs Of Weakening Recovery

The average rate for a conforming 30-year mortgage ticked down from 4.51 to 4.41 percent over the past week, 17 basis points below the 4.58 percent two-year high rate recorded this past August but 1.10 percentage points higher than the all-time low of 3.31 percent in November 2012.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.38 percent at this time last year, roughly half the 6.71 percent it has averaged since 1990. The fixed 30-year mortgage rate has averaged 8.61 percent over the past 40 years.

As we wrote two weeks ago: "While money remains historically cheap, the pace of pending home sales in the U.S. has slowed and is down 1.6 percent on a year-over-year basis. Recorded home sales in San Francisco were down 14 percent on a year-over-year basis in November and the city is on track to close 2013 with fewer recorded sales than in 2012."

December home sales have since been reported and 2013 has closed with 3.5 percent fewer recorded home sales in San Francisco than the year before. And in the words of Freddie Mac's Chief Economist this morning, "Mortgage rates drifted downward this week amid signs of a weakening economic recovery."

First Published: January 16, 2014 7:45 AM

Comments from "Plugged In" Readers

Great call. Amazing work two weeks ago when you called that the pace of home sales was slowing.

What's your view on the 30 year note?

Posted by: soccermom at January 16, 2014 10:43 AM

Are you being serious? The pace of home sales is not slowing.

[Editor's Note: On the odd chance that you're being serious, we're being serious too as that's what the data demonstrates on both national and local levels. Try following the links.]

Posted by: Colin Kaepernick's Stylist at January 16, 2014 2:21 PM

That data wasn't strong enough to draw such a strong conclusion. Not with the number of properties for sale starting way down then still finishing double digits down. Apply thatto the scarcity in various 'hoods ... How can anybody say that. Oh well.

[Editor's Note: Actually, it is. While you're welcome to argue why the pace of sales has slowed, it has slowed regardless.]

Posted by: Colin Kaepernick's Stylist at January 16, 2014 5:08 PM

In frisco, is it less sales (as in less interest from the public) or less inventory. Me bet me it's the latter.

Posted by: poor.ass.millionaire at January 16, 2014 6:09 PM


Posted by: lol at January 16, 2014 6:21 PM

Actually, it isn't, and I explained why.

Posted by: Colin Kaepernick's Stylist at January 16, 2014 6:33 PM

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