August 30, 2013
The Top Ten Areas For New Development In San Francisco
Removing the approved redevelopments of Candlestick/Hunters Point, Treasure Island, and Park Merced from the ranking, three long-term projects which represent nearly 24,000 of the 48,000 housing units in San Francisco's current development pipeline, the top ten areas being targeted for the near-term development of new housing in San Francisco are:
10. The Mission (930 new units)
9. South Central (1,210 units)
8. Western Addition (1,240 units)
7. Transbay (1,340 units)
6. East SoMa (1,480 units)
5. Mission Bay* (2,088 units)
4. Rincon Hill (2,370 units)
3. Market/Octavia (2,410 units)
2. Showplace Square/Potrero Hill (2,950 units)
And with nearly 4,000 units either under construction, approved, or proposed to be built, the number one area for new housing development in San Francisco is "Downtown" which includes Mid-Market and the Tenderloin.
*UPDATE: While the Planning Department includes the Giants' proposed Mission Rock Development as part of "South of Market, Other," we've moved it to Mission Bay and updated the table and map above.
∙ The 48,000 San Francisco Units In The Works By Neighborhood [SocketSite]
A Tip Of The Cap To Our America's Cup Youth
While lackluster attendance and a qualifying Cup in which too many times only one boat has been racing has taken a bit of the bloom off San Francisco's America's Cup rose, glimpses of ten 45-foot boats all out on the Bay can't help but to perk things up.
So it's a tip of the captain's cap to the ten international teams competing in the Red Bull Youth America’s Cup which begins this weekend with two fleet races each day from September 1-4.
∙ America's Cup Spectator Count Isn't Lagging, It's Luffing [SocketSite]
∙ 10 international teams ready to soar at the Red Bull Youth America’s Cup [americascup.com]
Rising Rates Start Reeling In Pending Home Sales
The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index fell 1.3 percent in July with the greatest decline in the West which fell 4.9 percent and is down 0.4 percent on a year-over-year basis despite an increase in listed inventory levels.
At the same time, the pace of closed sales ticked up 6.5 percent in July, up 13.2 percent year-over-year in the West as the Pending Home Sales Index jumped in May alongside mortgage rates.
Repeating two of our headlines from earlier this month: Home Sales Spike In San Francisco To Nine Year High In July, and Spike In Sales Due To, Rather Than Despite, A Spike In Rates.
The average 30-year rate is currently hovering around 4.5 percent. While that's up from 3.35 percent in May (which was within four basis points of an all-time low), the 30-year fixed mortgage has averaged 6.75 percent since 1990, 8.67 percent since 1971.
Can You Name This Burning Man Camp? Oh, Wait...
We're not sure which Burning Man camp this came from, but we thought we’d pass it along.
UPDATE: Our apologies for any confusion, apparently it's not a Burning Man camp at all, but rather the "storage" unit behind the duplex for sale at 2271-2273 15th Street.
With an unwarranted flat below the two legal two-bedroom units, the building is currently occupied by three different tenants with three different styles who are paying between $1,802 and $993 a month in rents.
August 29, 2013
Bay Area Bike Share Program In Action
With 700 bikes spread across 70 stations in San Francisco and down the Caltrain corridor to San Jose, the Bay Area Bike Share program formally started rolling at noon on thursday.
At the moment, the three most popular stations in San Francisco as measured by the least number of bikes available are the stations at Market and 4th Street; the Caltrain adjacent station at 330 Townsend; and the North Beach station at Grant and Columbus.
An annual pass for the program runs $88; a three-day pass $22; and a daily pass $9; all of which offer an unlimited number of 30-minute rides.
Keeping a bike for over 30 minutes will cost an extra $4 for the next half hour and another $7 for every 30 minutes thereafter up to $150 a day. Permanently keeping or losing a bike will result in a charge of $1,200 to your credit card.
The 48,000 San Francisco Units In The Works By Neighborhood
Roughly 1,500 new housing units were built and hit the market in San Francisco over the past four quarters. At the same time, commercial space in the city declined by 187,000 square feet as 172,000 square feet of existing space was converted to residential use.
Today, there are nearly 4,900 more new housing units under construction in San Francisco, most of which are market rate and will hit the market over the next year, numbers which shouldn't catch any plugged-in people by surprise.
Building permits for another 4,000 units having been approved and permits for another 3,800 units have been requested, a total of nearly 8,000 more housing units on top of those already under construction and which should start hitting the market in two to four years.
Another 28,000 housing units have been approved to be built by Planning which includes 10,500 units by Candlestick, 7,800 units on Treasure Island and 5,680 units in Park-Merced, projects which still have timelines measured in decades, not years.
And with plans for an additional 7,000 housing units on the boards, San Francisco’s total Housing Pipeline currently totals over 48,000 units. For context, around 12,000 housing units have been constructed in San Francisco since 2007; 26,000 new units constructed since 2000.
With respect to the pipeline of commercial development in San Francisco: 620,000 square feet are under construction; building permits for 2,000,000 square feet have been issued; building permits for another 3,800,000 square feet have been requested; and plans for another 5,600,000 square feet of commercial development have been approved.
A breakdown of all the development in the works across San Francisco, both residential and commercial, by neighborhood (click the table to enlarge):
∙ San Francisco Pipeline Report: Second Quarter 2013 [sf-planning.org]
America's Cup Spectator Count Isn't Lagging, It's Luffing
According to America's Cup officials, around 500,000 people to date have been counted as spectators at the official race venues on San Francisco’s Marina Green and Piers 27-29 with another 500,000 or so expected to be tallied during the finals next month. While not specified, it's likely safe to assume those aren't unique visitors being counted but rather unique visits (i.e., the same person visiting multiple venues or on multiple days would be counted as multiple "people").
While the Business Times notes "an economic forecast from earlier this year predicted 2 million people would watch the races — a tally that race organizers said they might draw when including people watching from places other than the Cup’s two main venues," a better benchmark for the America’s Cup numbers above would be the projected number of daily spectators, not the total predicted reach.
When originally pitched, the America’s Cup Event Authority had projected the number of spectators in San Francisco would tally between 100,000 and 250,000 a day during the week and between 250,000 and 500,000 spectators a day on the weekends and final race days.
There have been 20 days of racing to date.
∙ Barclay: Half a million… and counting [americascup.com]
∙ America’s Cup spectator count lags predicted 2 million turnout [Business Times]
∙ The Scope Of Development For San Francisco’s First America’s Cup [SocketSite]
August 28, 2013
A Decade Of Data Points And New Peak For A Twin Peaks Home
Having sold for $925,000 in 2005 and then again for $899,000 in early 2008, the touched up Twin Peaks home at 243 Romain was listed for $1,195,000 this past April.
Withdrawn from the market without a sale and relisted for $995,000 in June, and then again for $975,000 in July, the sale of 243 Romain closed escrow this past Monday with a reported contract price of $1,100,000, up a little over 20 percent on an apples-to-apples basis since 2008 (or 2005).
Having also sold for $700,000 in 2003, call it total appreciation of 57 percent or average annual appreciation of 4.5 percent over the past decade for the San Francisco home, with some ups and downs between.
∙ Touched Up In Twin Peaks [SocketSite]
It's Not About Vanity, It's About Valuation
The proposed Warriors Arena to built upon San Francisco's Pier 30-32 isn't a vanity project, it's a shrewd financial move on the part of the team's ownership.
As a plugged-in reader notes, while the Warriors franchise was purchased for $450 million in 2010, the value of the franchise has skyrocketed since announcing their planned move and new San Francisco arena with a recent deal to sell a minority share of the team to Silicon Valley venture capitalist Mark Stevens implying an $800 million valuation.
Putting aside the issue of whether or not the proposed location is appropriate, the new arena would be a boon to the City of San Francisco, but not nearly as much as to the team. And yet the City seems to have been negotiating with the Warriors from a position of weakness and promoting the project as a near act of charity to clean up the pier.
Okay, so perhaps it is a vanity project, just not on the part of the Warriors.
Saitowitz Designed Russian Hill Home Takes A Million Off The Top
Speaking of Stanley Saitowitz designed homes, having been listed for $6,980,000 sixteen months ago, the five-story Russian Hill house at 1110 Green Street has been listed anew for $5,885,000.
Black slate, etched glass, and floating features abound.
Opinions as to whether or not the modern design "offers a tranquil peaceful atmosphere" and "is awe inspiring to any architectural aficionado" are likely to be nearly as abundant.
∙ Listing: 1110 Green Street (3/2.5) - $5,885,000 [pacunion.com]
August 27, 2013
Coming Soon: Sixteen Modern Condos On 20th Street
office gallery for the sixteen Stanley Saitowitz designed Dogpatch condos at 616 20th Street is slated to open its doors mid-October. Behind the sawtooth façade, the minimalist units will feature "ultra-modern" finishes and "open-concept" layouts:
A rooftop deck atop the five-story building will provide a communal entertaining area while eleven parking spaces and a commercial space will compose the ground floor.
Apple's Revised Designs For A Flagship Store On Union Square
While Ruth Asawa's San Francisco Fountain will still be moved to make way for Apple's proposed flagship store on Union Square, it won't be moved off-site if the revised designs for Apple's store and the plaza behind are approved.
Instead, the fountain will be moved "slightly to the north and closer to the sidewalk" while the north edge of the existing plaza "will be pulled back several feet from the sidewalk to improve views of the fountain from the sidewalk."
From John King with respect to the revised design for Apple's proposed new store:
The building itself remains a tall, taut cube of glass and steel entered on Post Street. But instead of Stockton Street being walled off by steel panels 80 feet long and more than 20 feet high, the design includes an 8-foot-wide glass "window" that will be notched deep into the wall and extend from the floor to the roof. It then will continue across to create a skylight for the retail space below.
The thrust of the new design remains more about Apple than the historic Union Square setting. But the glass wall on Post has been pulled back several feet from the outer metal frame, allowing for shadows and depth. The broad, tall cut along Stockton adds a provocative and visually porous element to the scene.
The building design which Apple had originally proposed for the site:
And once again, as the corner currently appears:
San Francisco's Top Tier Homes And Condos Within 8% Of Peak
While the pace of price increases has slowed from the record setting gains in April and May, single-family home and condo values in the San Francisco MSA continued to climb in June.
According to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA rose 2.7% from May to June 2013. Up 24.5% year-over-year, the San Francisco Index remains 20.8% below a May 2006 peak.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values gained 2.2% from May to June and are up 11.9% year-over-year but remain 23.4% below a June 2006 peak.
The Southwest and California have consistently led the recovery with Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Francisco posting at least 15 months of gains. Looking at the cities, New York recorded its highest monthly return since 2002. Atlanta was up the most at +3.4% and Washington DC had the lowest return at +1.0%. In terms of annual rates of change, San Francisco lost its leadership position with Las Vegas showing the highest post-recession gain of 24.9%.
Overall, the report shows that housing prices are rising but the pace may be slowing. Thirteen out of twenty cities saw their returns weaken from May to June. As we are in the middle of a seasonal buying period, we should expect to see the most gains. With interest rates rising to almost 4.6%, home buyers may be discouraged and sharp increases may be dampened.
On a month-over-month basis, prices ticked up across all three San Francisco price tiers.
The bottom third (under $457,184 at the time of acquisition) gained 5.4% from May to June (up 37.6% YOY); the middle third gained 2.7% from May to June (up 28.2% YOY); and the top third (over $781,428 at the time of acquisition) gained 2.1% from May to June, up 18.1% year-over-year versus 17.2% in May.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back to September 2002 levels (43% below an August 2006 peak); the middle third is back to June 2004 levels (21% below a May 2006 peak); and the top third is back near April 2005 levels (8% below an August 2007 peak).
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA rose 3.3% from May to June 2013 and are up 28.8% year-over-year, 8.5% below a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Home Prices Continue Climbing in June [Standard & Poor's]
∙ San Francisco Home Values Gain At Near Record Pace [SocketSite]
August 26, 2013
Nearly Sixty Percent Over Asking And Highly Engineered
Having been listed for $1,399,000, it shouldn't come as any surprise that sale of 367 Liberty Street sold for well "over asking" with eleven offers as the list price was at least $400,000 less than what the seller was actually seeking according to a plugged-in source.
With a reported contract price of $2,200,000, however, the "57 percent over list price" stat for the Liberty Hill home with "expansion potential" and big views might still raise an eyebrow or two.
Then again, maybe it won't as remodeled homes on The Hill have been rather hot with the home in front having sold for $3 million in 2012 as did the hidden home behind to which a million-dollar-plus remodel is in the works.
A Day Late To Easily Convert, So What's The New Vacancy Worth?
With two of three units vacant, the triplex at 1281-1285 Filbert Street was listed for $1,499,000 this past April and sold for $2,000,000 within two weeks. Having occupied the top floor two-bedroom since 2003, the tenant was paying $2,337 a month in rent.
In June, San Francisco’s Condominium Lottery Bypass was adopted, restricting the condo conversion of TIC units which weren't occupied by the converting owners of record on April 15, 2013. The purchase of 1281-1285 Filbert closed escrow on April 16.
Last month the triplex returned to the market listed for $2,795,000 without any substantive changes to the building save one: all three units are now listed as vacant. No word on what the tenant was offered to move, but we're guessing less than $795,000.
∙ Listing: 1281-1285 Filbert Street - $2,795,000 [via Redfin]
∙ Condo Conversions: The Clock Is Ticking For The Mayor To Act [SocketSite]
Proposed Waterfront Open Space Meeting Postponed
The meeting scheduled for August 28 to discuss the designs for the concrete triangle at the end of Howard between Steuart and Embarcadero has been postponed. From the team behind the proposed 31-story building to rise at 75 Howard Street, at the base of which the triangle sits:
Unfortunately, we have just learned that we need to have additional information in hand and further discussions with the City, the owner of the triangle lot. As we want to have a meaningful and comprehensive community discussion about the site, we need to postpone this Wednesday’s meeting.
We'll let you know when the meeting is rescheduled. In the meantime, we'll leave you with a reader's thought that the triangle could make for a rather interesting location for Ruth Asawa's San Francisco Fountain should it be moved to make way for an Apple store on Union Square.
Posted by socketadmin at 2:00 PM
Warriors Arena Plan Already Behind Schedule, Costs Piling Up
As we first wrote last year with respect to the plan to build an arena upon Pier 30-32:
With San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee deeming it his legacy project, and the project sponsors lining the pockets of nearly every political, development, and public relations consultant in the city, some might consider the Warriors Arena that’s proposed to be built upon Pier 30-32 to be too big or connected to fail. But this is San Francisco, after all.
Birds helped overturn the approved development of 555 Washington. NIMBY neighbors have stalled the approved development of 8 Washington for at least another year. And an early plan to develop the very Pier upon which the Warriors Arena would be built fell apart during negotiations of the financial terms.
The draft development deal with the Warriors would cap the City’s exposure on the billion dollar project to a $120,000,000 reimbursement for Pier rehabilitation and potential public improvements with funding of the reimbursement limited to rent credits (the piers would be leased to the Warriors for $1,970,000 a year), the sale of Seawall 330 for an estimated $30,400,000, and new property tax revenue generated by the Warriors development.
Assuming a term sheet for the deal can be agreed upon, the Bay Conservation and Development Commission approves the use, the Piers are successfully rezoned for development over 40 feet, and any legal challenges are overcome in a timely manner, San Francisco and the Golden State Warriors will have a new Arena by 2017.
While a term sheet for the project has been agreed upon, the estimated cost for improving the pier for development has since risen from $120 million to $170 million, the project is already months behind the tight schedule for meeting a 2017 opening, and not only has the BCDC not approved of the project, they're pushing for additional time and delay.
The lawsuit and referendum circus challenging the development has yet to even begin.
The Evolution Of Design And Odds Of Another For 399 Fremont
With the clock ticking to start construction and the project having been sold to a new developer, a number of readers wonder whether the approved design for the 400-foot tower to rise at 399 Fremont Street might be redesigned again as it was last year.
While some tweaks are likely in the works, we'd put the chance of a wholesale redesign for 399 Fremont at less than one percent unless the new developer (UDR) should decide they’ve missed the current cycle.
A few more side-by-side comparisons of the previously approved and redesigned building to rise on the corner of Fremont and Harrison (click images to enlarge):
∙ The Clock Is Ticking For This 400-Foot Tower On Rincon Hill [SocketSite]
∙ 399 Fremont Scoop: Redesigned And Pursuing Construction Permits [SocketSite]
August 23, 2013
Transbay Tower Watch: Approved But Not (Yet) Permitted
While Hines and Boston Properties ceremonially broke ground for the 1,070-foot tall Transbay Tower to rise at the corner of First and Mission five months ago, nothing seems to have happened on the 101 First Street site since. And for good reason.
While approved for development, the permit to construct the 61-story tower which was applied for in March has yet to be issued. But with the fire department having signed-off on the plans this week, it shouldn't be too much longer before the construction crew can start setting up camp and moving the dirt with more than gold shovels.
And no, they're still not planning to pay for
their the park.
∙ Transbay Tower Site Transferred And Ceremonially Breaks Ground [SocketSite]
∙ Proposed 1,070-Foot Transbay Tower Approved To Rise [SocketSite]
∙ Hines And Boston Balk At Having To Pay For Transbay Park Upkeep [SocketSite]
A "Fixer" That’s Not For The Faint Of Heart (Nor Pocketbook)
The 1870’s era Victorian at 837 South Van Ness Avenue has seen better days.
And while we do see the potential for a spectacular Mission District compound, calling it a "fixer" seems a bit gracious and it's not a project for the faint of heart (nor pocketbook).
At least there is a working bathroom:
∙ Listing: 837 South Van Ness (5/1) 2,488 sqft - $1,395,000 [837SouthVanNess.com]