According to the December 2012 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA rose 0.7% from November to December 2012 and ended the year up 14.4% but remain 32.6% below a May 2006 peak.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values gained a nominal 0.1% from November to December, up 5.7% year-over-year, down 30.0% from a June 2006 peak.
Housing and residential construction led the economy in the 2012 fourth quarter. In December’s report all three headline composites and 19 of the 20 cities gained over their levels of a year ago. Month-over-month, 9 cities and both Composites posted positive monthly gains. Seasonally adjusted, there were no monthly declines across all 20 cities.
The National Composite increased 7.3% over the four quarters of 2012. From its low in the first quarter, it surged in the second and third quarter and slipped slightly in the 2012 fourth period. The 10- and 20-City Composites, which bottomed out in March 2012 continued to show both year-over-year and monthly gains in December. These movements, combined with other housing data, suggest that while housing is on the upswing some of the strongest numbers may have already been seen.
Atlanta and Detroit posted their biggest year-over-year increases of 9.9% and 13.6% since the start of their indices in January 1991. Dallas, Denver, and Minneapolis recorded their largest annual increases since 2001. Phoenix continued its climb, posting an impressive year-over-year return of 23.0%; it posted eight consecutive months of double-digit annual growth.
On a month-over-month basis, prices rose across the top and bottom tiers in San Francisco but were flat in the middle.
The bottom third (under $383,919 at the time of acquisition) rose 1.7% from November to December (up 18.6% YOY); the middle third was unchanged from November to December (up 13.4% YOY); and the top third (over $686,706 at the time of acquisition) ticked up 1.0% from November to December, up 9.1% year-over-year versus 7.7% in November.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA are back to January 2001 levels, down 53% from an August 2006 peak; the middle third remains at March 2003 levels, down 34% from a May 2006 peak; and the top third is just above May 2004 levels, 19% below an August 2007 peak.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA ticked up 0.2% from November to December and are up 21.3% year-over-year but remain 23.6% below a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Home Prices Closed Out a Strong 2012 According to S&P/Case-Shiller [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ San Francisco Home And Condo Prices Gain As US Index Slips [SocketSite]