According to the October 2012 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA rose 0.7% from September to October and are up 8.9% year-over-year but remain 34.0% below their May 2006 peak.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell a nominal 0.1% from September to October, up 3.0% year-over-year, down 29.8% from a June 2006 peak.
The October monthly numbers were weaker than September as 12 cities saw prices drop compared to seven the month before. The five which turned down in October but not in September, were Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, Minneapolis and Seattle. Among all 20 cities, Chicago was the weakest with prices dropping 1.5%, followed by Boston where prices fell 1.4%. Las Vegas saw the strongest one-month gain with prices up 2.8%.
Annual rates of change in home prices are a better indicator of the performance of the housing market than the month-over-month changes because home prices tend to be lower in fall and winter than in spring and summer. Both the 10- and 20-City Composites and 19 of 20 cities recorded higher annual returns in October 2012 than in September. The impact of the seasons can also be seen in the seasonally adjusted data where only three cities declined month-to-month.
On a month-over-month basis, prices rose across all three San Francisco price tiers.
The bottom third (under $375,355 at the time of acquisition) rose 1.6% from September to October, up 15.0% year-over-year; the middle third rose 0.2% from September to October, up 10.7% YOY; and the top third (over $675,352 at the time of acquisition) rose 0.9% from September to October, up 6.2% YOY.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have returned to November 2000 levels (55% below an August 2006 peak), the middle third has returned to February 2003 levels (35% below a May 2006 peak), and the top third remains at May 2004 levels (20% below an August 2007 peak).
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA gained 0.9% from September to October and are up 17.5% year-over-year but remain 24.3% below their December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Home Prices Rise for the Sixth Straight Month [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ San Francisco Home And Condos Values Continue To Climb [SocketSite]