June 25, 2012
U.S. New Home Sales: Up 19.8% YOY In May But Well Below Average
The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. rose to 369,000 in May, up 7.6 percent from a revised rate of 343,000 in April and 19.8 percent above the 308,000 pace recorded in May 2011.
Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in May were estimated to be 35,000 (give or take 8 percent), up 2,000 from April, the fourth slowest May on record since 1963. May sales peaked in 2005 with 120,000 new homes sold.
In the West, the pace of new home sales was up 10.8 percent year-over-year to 82,000 in April, down 3.5 percent versus the month before.
Annual new home sales in the U.S. have averaged 671,000 since 1963, peaking at 1,283,000 in 2005, bottoming at 306,000 last year.
∙ New Residential Sales: April 2012 [census.gov]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales: Up 9.9% YOY In April But Well Below Average [SocketSite]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]
First Published: June 25, 2012 7:45 AM
Comments from "Plugged In" Readers
This is a great sign of the market bouncing off bottom -- of course, New Home Sales will be limited by the simple fact that very few new homes have been built, and builders are focused more on multi-family units right now.
So, I would be really interested in Months of Supply of new homes. That would tell us more that comparing new home sales.
[Editor’s Note: Months of supply is currently 4.7 versus a 49-year average of 6.2.]
Posted by: Big V at June 25, 2012 8:46 AM
I wonder what the average would look like without the boom between 1997 and 2007. Likely much lower and less dramatic.
[Editor’s Note: The average from 1963 through 1996 was 607,000 per year, 9.5 percent lower than the average including the boom but 64.5 percent higher than the current pace.]
Posted by: kg at June 25, 2012 8:55 AM
That is significant! While total new home sales may be low compared to historic norms, having a lower than average months of supply is a great setup for market pressure and price increases that will help convince people and banks that the future holds growth.
change of sentiment could come quickly. It certainly appears to have done so here in parts of SF already.
[Editor’s Note: Keep in mind that despite lower inventory levels, U.S. home values remain down 2.0% year-over-year having slipped 0.1% from February to March, down 35.1% from a June 2006 peak.]
Posted by: Big V at June 25, 2012 9:28 AM
You can't have a housing recovery without a jobs recovery.
Posted by: DataDude at June 25, 2012 5:57 PM