June 25, 2012
Foreclosure Activity Falls In San Francisco, Pipeline Down 31 Percent
Having ticked up in April, pre-foreclosure activity in San Francisco has fallen 17 percent over the past two months with 397 properties in the pipeline, 39 percent of which are in District 10*, down from 480 properties in the pipeline two months ago.
On a year-over-year basis, pre-foreclosure activity is down 31 percent with 576 properties in the pipeline at the same time last year, 32 percent of which were in District 10.
The number of properties scheduled for auction in San Francisco (522) fell by 12 percent over the past two months with 43 percent in District 10 versus 42 percent in April, down 24 percent from June 2011 when 41 percent were in District 10.
Last year roughly 70 percent of scheduled foreclosure auctions in San Francisco were cancelled (only one point above the 69 percent cancellation rate for scheduled auctions in District 10), up from a 66 percent cancellation rate in 2010, 55 percent in 2009, 53 percent in 2008, and 49 percent in 2007.
*Editor's Note: In an attempt to match and map two disparate data sets, we include 94124, 94134 and 94112 in "District 10," which results in a slightly larger area than the District as defined by the San Francisco Association of Realtors.
∙ Pre-Foreclosure Activity Ticks Back Up In San Francisco [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco Association Of Realtors New Neighborhood Map [SocketSite]
First Published: June 25, 2012 1:30 PM
Comments from "Plugged In" Readers
Here's one in the St. Francis Wood pipeline. The 4/4 2,924 sq.ft. home at 115 Santa Ana Ave. was purchased for $1.3million in 2001. RealtyTrac reports over $1.6million is now owed. A NOD was filed on 5/21/12. Refies in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. Anyone want to handicap this one?
Posted by: EBGuy at June 25, 2012 2:17 PM
Notice of Trustee Sales were down right around the settlement between the lenders and the states that sued. Now they are going back up.
The SF Chronicle ran a story over the weekend about jumbo borrowers who were stuck and can not refi under the new programs.
Also the economy is starting to slow back down. Which will increase foreclosures..
Posted by: Inclinejj at June 25, 2012 2:23 PM
I would guess that 2924 SF house in St. Francis Wood could sell now for more that $1.6 million, so the house isn't underwater. Presumably the owners could sell if faced with foreclosure.
Posted by: Dan at June 25, 2012 6:21 PM
What is the source of this data?
It would be nice to see it plotted on a chart back to 2000. Hard to read anything into it other it's "better" and seems to be gettig better than it recent years.
The whole issue of inventory data and pent up supply in the form of bank owned homes not on the market is a missing variable(s). It would seem that inventory is low and it would also seem that now would be the ideal time for banks to be unloading pent up homes. We've seen a 10m+ foreclosure sell ancd there is the other property where the bank could "profit", so the pent up supply issue is most likely not a major issue. But would love to see some data to substantiate the points one way or the other.
Posted by: Eddy at June 25, 2012 8:22 PM
My friends in SF who haven't paid one dime since 2008: no NOD, no NTS, no nothing.
They would not be counted in shadow inventory (because you need at least an NOD to be counted), but obviously they are still still in it. I have to wonder how many others are in the same boat.
Posted by: tipster at June 25, 2012 11:12 PM
Pretty much everyone that owns their home outright is shadow inventory too! Perhaps your friends should consider selling as the market is pretty good. But I love the fact that they are living free. One of the biggest tricks the government executed was getting people to continue to pay and not mail in the keys, or do what your friends are doing. Most individuals are not that savvy and I'm sure they must be using counsel to help keep the banks at bay for almost 4 years. Even if not, and the banks(s) are just not perusing the case for whatever reason, the absolute numbers here are fairly low and still encouraging. But I agree, without perfect information or historical data points back to 2000 or earlier, it is really hard to make anything other than a cursory observation.
Posted by: Eddy at June 26, 2012 5:47 AM
"without perfect information or historical data points back to 2000 or earlier, it is really hard to make anything other than a cursory observation."
Ya could ask Doc Google
Never Headrd of this Imam
But Hes Data Tells an Inverntory Story you Dont hear from Team Realty
"Among the 50 largest metro areas in the country, those with the highest percentages of mortgages in negative equity also have the lowest inventory levels, according to CoreLogic's findings. For instance, markets where more than 50 percent of borrowers are underwater had an average months supply of 4.7 months in March, while those where less than 10 percent of borrowers are underwater averaged 8.3 months' supply, the report said."
Google Your Realtor! Read!
Posted by: ReadingForRealtors at June 26, 2012 8:57 AM
Interesting reading RFR, thanks for sharing. I wonder if that is what is really holding back inventory in SF though, since we did not experience as much of a drop in prices as most places. Does anyone have a guess as to what percentage of home owners in SF are underwater? I know there is still a huge overhang nationally but wonder if anyone has local figures.
It is really an important question to know if the banks are still holding back significant amounts of unsold inventory from the market. Does anyone know how to find that out for San Francisco?
Posted by: NoeValleyJim at June 28, 2012 9:47 AM
According to a report released by Zillow on May 24th, as of Q1 2012, 30.7% of SF homes with a mortgage had negative equity. Since I'm sure not all homes have a mortgage, the actual % in SF would therefore be less then 30%.
Posted by: Rillion at June 28, 2012 4:49 PM