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Good rates, not ARM good, but good.

Obviously everything is falling. I'm seeing big pullbacks in spending among larger companies.

Income growth is dropping dramatically and has been for months. ECRI reports that the job growth has only been for people outside of peak earning years of 34-54. In fact, the people in their peak earning years have actually had job losses. 40 year olds are being replaced with cheaper 25 year olds.

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012/05/chart-of-the-day-us-real-personal-income-growth.html

"For the last three months, year-over-year growth in real personal income has stayed lower than it was at the beginning of each of the last ten recessions . In other words, this is what personal income growth typically looks like early in a recession."

ECRI now says the recession, if it has not already started, will be here by the end of next month, and there isn't anything anyone can do to stop it.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000089189

Everyone lambasted him when he made the recession call in December. No one is doing so any longer. His track record of never calling a recession that didn't occur appears to be unblemished.

Thus, interest rates are falling. Investors see the future and it is bleak. So they lock in current interest rates.

This quarter, software VC funding is down nearly 20% Life sciences funding is down more than 40%. Initial funding rounds for life sciences are down 60%.

http://www.scalefinance.com/q1-2012-venture-market-starts-slow/

I'm seeing across the board slowing. Everything is flashing red. Interest rates falling doesn't surprise me at all.

ECRI called for a recession in September, not December. So 8 months ago, they said we were tipping into recession. We're still not there. But according to ECRI, any minute now!

I'm not sure how their record can be considered unblemished.

Tipster, I don't see how "everything is flashing red". Unemployment is dropping, equities are increasing, and seemingly the RE market is picking up. Could it be that banks are just starting to get more comfortable lowering their risk premiums (spreads), and that's why mortgage rates are dropping?? BTW, I just read somewhere about a place in the Infinity selling for $750K more than it's 2010 selling price....yep, everything is flashing red alright ;-)

R - Is unblemished because ECRI is continuing to see the upcoming recession is the one they called. I'm not sure what is going to happen in the economy over the next two months but I'm sure that ECRI will continue to be calling the upcoming recession regardless of if it is here yet or not and Tipster will still be saying this is the start of the recession ECRI called in February so they still have a 100% track record.

* mortgage rates lower year over year (3.8% vs 4.6%).
* prices lower year over year (down 4.1% according to latest CS Index for SF)).
* increasing inflation.

factor all those things and mortgage payments are down significantly from last year.

^ There's no way are prices down year over year in SF. I don't care what Case Shiller looks like. It's comical to say such a thing.

Tipster cracks me up. Why are you even commenting, are you not seeing that prices are back up, rents have inceeased also.

^You mean like right before the crash of 2007?

Man."The crash of 2007," and on a SF blog? Uh, you mean during the peak? LOL. You never learned a thing. Never even paid attention in the first place. Just talk talk talk talk talk without any interaction. That's you. (And sorry, but your "friends at the FB roadshow" ? Sure dude. Everybody is hangin on your every word, there.)