February 9, 2012

Can You Correctly Re-Pick This Noe Valley Apple To Be?

946 Elizabeth

As we reported in November 2010:

From October 2004 to April 2007 the value of the single-family home at 946 Elizabeth increased from $2,100,000 to $2,675,000 for total appreciation of 21 percent and effective annual appreciation of 10 percent per year.
Yesterday the sale of 946 Elizabeth closed escrow with a reported contract price of $2,375,000, an 11 percent ($300,000) drop in value over the past three years.
The winner of our "think you know Noe" closest to the closing price challenge? A plugged-in "tipster" on the record at $2,365,000.

Back on the market and listed for $2,575,000 today, if you think you know Noe and the market for 946 Elizabeth now's the time to tell or forfeit your right to say "I told you so."

∙ Listing: 946 Elizabeth Street (3/3.5) 3,120 sqft - $2,575,000 [946elizabethstreet]
Can You Correctly Pick This Noe Valley Apple To Be? [SocketSite]
946 Elizabeth Is Picked Up Down At 11 Percent Under Its 2007 Sale [SocketSite]

First Published: February 9, 2012 9:00 AM

Comments from "Plugged In" Readers

It's annoying to see that much turn-over on a Noe "trophy" house. It's like people wants to fight their way to get it but whoever buys it get bored faster than a presidential candidate with an older sick wife.

"Walking" distance from 24th corridor, "climbing" distance on the way back. I've done it... It's a bit high on Elizabeth (one block too high for my own taste) and therefore I'll locate the $/sf at 750 to 800, or roughly 2.350M to 2.5M. With the middle at 2.425M that's my guesstimate. Else someone with knees of steel (or titanium) will fall in love with it and break the piggy bank.

Posted by: lol at February 9, 2012 9:32 AM

I think we can all agree the there is a bunch of Facebook money that will be coming to this area very soon, Noe Valley is hot, we should expect around 10% appreciation over last year, and there is never any wear and tear on a 2004 remodel. So, I am going to say this gets asking at $2.575M

Posted by: sparky-b at February 9, 2012 11:56 AM

^Funny. If I'm basing my guess on the newspaper articles from yesterday, I'd tend to agree. But if I'm reading the words that the people who were accused of being realtors actually wrote on this site, I'd disagree. As for myself, I'd say it has a good shot at getting what it got last time around. Buyers are NOT trying to pay the same price that the last guy paid in this market. They'll pay a premium for something new and unlived in, but this strikes me as a tough sell.

Posted by: [anon.ed] at February 9, 2012 12:12 PM

errr, that was meant to be more than the last guy paid ...

Posted by: [anon.ed] at February 9, 2012 12:15 PM

Not everyone working at tech companies makes or will make tons of money. Heck 99.99% of the worker bee software engineers are making tops $150k and few are getting tons of options.

Posted by: Facebook This at February 9, 2012 12:32 PM

lol#1: The phrase "winner's curse" comes to mind, but that would be a bit pointed.

Posted by: EH at February 9, 2012 12:36 PM

Facebook This, few are getting tons of options you say but enough are getting options to fight over the limited supply in Noe.

And anyway if it's not a FB person then it will be a French guy. Either way, this apple will sing the sweet song of cash.

I will go a step further and tell you that the 2013 buyer next time around is going to pay $2.8M

Posted by: sparky-b at February 9, 2012 12:42 PM

Sure there are many tech workers who make do on a mere 150K income. Put 2 of them together (yes, it happens) and you've got a candidate for a 1.5M family home.

This home is probably in the range of their manager's house who will have more stock options and much more cash.

Posted by: lol at February 9, 2012 3:59 PM

^^^ Is a $1.5M house really right for $300K HH, though?

And be careful putting 2 tech workers together -- you might get a baby or 2 (yes, it happens). ;-)

Posted by: Dont get it at February 10, 2012 8:09 AM

Maybe one has LNKD and the other ZNGA. They were saving while renting at the former architetect-turned-carpenter's house, made an offer on his place, it was too low, so they turned their attention to this one. Too bad neither works for Facebook. If one did they'd be waiting for the next good ~3M Noe house to come along.

Posted by: [anon.ed] at February 10, 2012 8:20 AM

Echo lol's first comments--too high on the hill, too steep, too windy and cold to appeal to your target Noe buyer. I think you might even need a special permit to raise kids under age 5 above Hoffman. 20 Hoffman (great vintage/size/style proxy just down the street) has stood unclaimed for 126 days now at $650psf, so I think despite all the new tech money flooding in, 946 sits for a few months then moves closer to $2.395mm.

Posted by: no_ vally at February 10, 2012 2:37 PM

21 Fountain street would beg to differ.

Posted by: sparky-b at February 10, 2012 2:48 PM

Yeah, but 21 Fountain was at least head if not shoulders above 946--incredible design and architecture, free flow throughout, large flat yard, amazing views, etc. Plus since Fountain is essentially flat in front of 21, you could actually park a stroller there without fear that if the brake accidentally released, your kid's next stop is Whole Foods...a key criteria for most NV buyers. Still say there is too much good peripheral inventory (see 26th-30th, Dolores-Douglass) for 946 to clear much above $765psf.

Posted by: no_ vally at February 10, 2012 3:44 PM

I was just responding to the too high,steep,windy and cold part. And Fountain is above.


I looked at 20 Hoffman when it was a fixer and passed. I am not suprised it is sitting at that price point, it has all the issues I knew it would have.

Posted by: sparky-b at February 10, 2012 3:54 PM

Location-wise I do prefer Fountain over the last block of Hoffman. The street is flat plus this block on Elizabeth suffers from the non-street-sweeping-meets-90-degree-parking curse.

It's one of a few blocks in upper Noe where you can park your car long term without any of the usual bi-weekly switcheroo. A well kept secret among locals.

The northern side has a diminished curb appeal because of that, plus the challenge of pulling into your driveway from a narrow street with a 25+% slope and the full length of parked cars making the turn even more challenging. Then when you get out of your parking you do it in reverse and either up or down the slope depending where you're going. I've done it a few times with a stick and you regularly hear a few screeching noises...

It's a detail of course. Plus there's nothing like having the back of your house FACING the down slope like Fountain, compared to sideways with Hoffman. It's way more dramatic and makes the location more desirable.

Posted by: lol at February 10, 2012 4:43 PM

Posted by: SocketSite at March 2, 2012 10:03 AM

946 back on as of today, listed at $2.195mm
More listbait? Or actually priced near expectation...guess we'll see this time around

Posted by: no_ vally at June 8, 2012 11:02 AM

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