January 18, 2012

San Francisco Sales Activity Ticks Up In December, Median Ticks Down

San Francisco Sales Volume And Median Price: December 2011 (www.SocketSite.com)

Recorded home sales volume in San Francisco was up 1.6% on a year-over-year basis last month (499 recorded sales in December 2011 versus 491 sales in December 2010), up 18.2% as compared to the month prior and versus an average November to December increase of 1.7% over the past seven years. An average of 521 San Francisco homes have sold in December since 2004 when recorded sales volume hit at 646.

San Francisco's median sales price in December was $594,500, down 3.6% on a year-over-year basis and down 7.8% as compared to November in which the median sale price was down 5.2% year-over-year

For the greater Bay Area, recorded sales volume in December was up 4.4% on a year-over-year basis, up 18.6% from the month prior (7,494 recorded sales in December '11 versus 7,178 in December ’10 and 6,317 in November '11) as the recorded median sales price was down 6.3% year-over-year, down 3.3% month-over-month.

Last month distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and "short sales" – rose to 49.6 percent of the resale market. That was up from 45.9 percent in November and up from 48.2 percent from December 2010.
Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 28.6 percent of resales in December. That was up from a revised 25.2 percent in November, and down from 30.1 percent a year earlier. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 15 years is about 9 percent.
Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 21.0 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was up from 20.6 percent in November and up from 18.1 percent a year earlier.

At the extremes, Marin recorded a 23.9% increase in sales volume (a gain of 74 transactions) on a 13.6% decline in median sales price, while San Mateo recorded a 2.3% decrease in sales (a loss of 14 transactions) on a 10.7% decline in median price. The best performing Bay Area county in terms of median sales price was Napa which recorded a 2.4% year-over-year increase, the only uptick throughout the Bay Area.

As always, keep in mind that DataQuick reports recorded sales which not only includes activity in new developments, but contracts that were signed ("sold") many months or even years prior and are just now closing escrow (or being recorded).

Bay Area Sales Up, Prices Down [DQNews]
Recorded San Francisco Activity Up 2.9% In November, Median Falls [SocketSite]
San Francisco Foreclosure Trends And 2011 And Retrospective [SocketSite]

First Published: January 18, 2012 10:15 AM

Comments from "Plugged In" Readers

median price($594k) is still above Jan 2004($541k) by about $50k.

hopefully it'll be below the 2004 price in a year or three.

Posted by: * at January 18, 2012 10:59 AM

The data is not available for consistent comparisons prior to 2004, however, it would be wrong to assume that the price line continues the downward trend. I suspect that it would pop back up around Y2K and back down again to 1996 where it would drop off significantly. The line also looks to cross over around 2/11 and late 2008. The full year 2012 and 2013 will be very interesting to see if the long foretold double dip is upon us.

Inventory?

Posted by: eddy at January 18, 2012 11:21 AM

Data continues to look unreliable.

Compared to http://www.rereport.com/sf/ron/

last year 216 + 197 = 413 listed(?) sales, which suggests 80 or so unlisted.

But this year 292 + 212 = 505 (I think listed only) sales, which is greater than the total sales given here of 499...

How can this be?

Clearly, one, or both of these reports are wrong.

[Editor’s Note: DataQuick reports are based on recorded transfers of deeds while MLS based reports (like rereport) are based on Realtor self-reported transactions. We’ll let you decided which is more likely to be wrong or unreliable.]

Posted by: REpornaddict at January 18, 2012 2:33 PM

Thanks for the info editor, didn't know that.

weird how the error always seems to be going the same way though (i.e. a non believably low number of non listed sales suggested as compared to last year).

Do you think realtors have suddenly decided to start reporting more sales than actually happened?

Posted by: REpornaddict at January 19, 2012 8:34 AM

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