January 31, 2012
S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Homes Dip, Condos Slip In November
According to the November 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.9% from October ’11 to November '11, down 5.5% year-over-year (versus a 4.7% YoY drop in October), down 40.6% from a peak in May '06.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 1.3% from October to November, down 3.6% year-over-year and down 32.9% from a June 2006 peak.
Despite continued low interest rates and better real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, home prices continue to fall. Weakness was seen as 19 of 20 cities saw average home prices decline in November over October...The only positive for the month was Phoenix, one of the hardest hit in recent years. Annual rates were little better as 18 cities and both Composites were negative.
Nationally, home prices are lower than a year ago. The 10-City Composite was down 3.6% and the 20-City was down 3.7% compared to November 2010. The trend is down and there are few, if any, signs in the numbers that a turning point is close at hand.
On a month-over-month basis, prices were up nominally for the bottom third of the three San Francisco price tiers but fell for both the middle and top.
The bottom third (under $314,749 at the time of acquisition) rose 0.2% from October to November (down 7.5% YOY); the middle third fell 1.6% from October to November (down 8.6% YOY); and the top third (over $586,246 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.0% from October to November, down 1.9% year-over-year (versus up 0.3% in October).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have dropped below May 2000 levels having fallen 60% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has dropped below March 2002 levels having fallen 42% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has dropped below February 2004 levels having fallen 26% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.2% from October '11 to November '11, down 7.5% year-over-year, down 35.8% from a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the "San Francisco" index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ Home Prices Continued to Decline in November 2011 [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Homes Slip, Condos Dip In October [SocketSite]
January 30, 2012
Preaching To The Choir With Respect To Architectural Innovation
In an attempt to learn "how cities can capitalize on the de-industrialization of their urban core to sustainably address the demands of growth and modernization" and inform the development of San Francisco’s Central Corridor Project, the Planning Department’s Steve Wertheim looked at four European cities (Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Lyon and Torino) to understand strategies, successes, and the ability to enhance quality-of-life.
One of the "key lessons" from Wertheim’s study that couldn’t help but catch our eye:
Amsterdam (and perhaps more so Lyon) show the potential of outstanding architecture to create iconic buildings and neighborhoods, thereby supporting both development and a high quality of life. To achieve such standards in the Central Corridor, San Francisco may need to consider raising architectural standards by formalizing peer-to-peer design review and/or revising our internal processes to support architectural innovation. With increased land values, it may also be possible for developments to attract the interest of top architects to the area.
Can we get an amen and hallelujah?
∙ San Francisco’s Central
Subway Corridor Project [SocketSite]
∙ Capitalizing on De-Industrialization to Address Growth & Modernization [sf-planning.org]
A Colorful Take On Life Inside The Hamiliton (631 O’Farrell)
While not measuring much more than 500 square feet, 631 O’Farrell #412 is one of those studios in The Hamilton that live much larger. Purchased for $210,000 in 2002, the colorfully decorated unit is now back on the market and listed for $239,000.
∙ Listing: 631 O’Farrell #412 (0/1) 520 sqft - $239,000 [vanguardsf.com]
∙ Pay For 520, But Live Like 800 (With Bonus Points For "Trendyloin") [SocketSite]
∙ Life At The Hamilton (631 O'Farrell): A Plugged-In Reader's Report [SocketSite]
Before, After And Back On The Market In The Mission
Purchased for $700,000 in 2007 and then approved to be rebuilt as two "low energy condominiums" totaling 3,000 square feet, as plugged-in people know 1376 Florida was listed as a short-sale for $300,000 a year ago, sold for $320,000, and has since been rebuilt and expanded (although without all the low energy features originally proposed).
Back on the market and now listed as two condos, they're asking $799,000 for the lower 1376 Florida and $849,000 for the upper number 1378.
∙ Listing: 1376 Florida (3/2.5) 1,500 sqft - $799,000 [1376florida-sf.com]
∙ Listing: 1378 Florida (3/2) 1,500 sqft - $849,000 [1376florida-sf.com]
∙ Plans For The Inner Mission Fixer At 1376 Florida Come Up Short [SocketSite]
∙ No, This Wasn't In Florida But Rather On... [SocketSite]
A Penultimate Drop From The Penultimate Floor Atop The Ritz-Carlton
As we reported this past November:
Purchased for $2,201,500 in March 2008 on the penultimate floor atop the Ritz-Carlton Residences in San Francisco, 690 Market Street #2301 returned to the market listed for $2,299,000 eight months later.
Reduced to $2,099,000 in February 2009 and then to $1,999,999 that April, the 1,660 square foot two-bedroom was withdrawn from the market that June.
It’s now two years later and 690 Market Street #2301 has returned to the market listed for $1,350,000. Recently rented asking $6,800 per month in rent, but delivered empty at close of escrow according to the MLS, it’s not a foreclosure, nor a short-sale. And if a reader is correct, the buyer in 2008 paid cash.
The resale of 690 Market Street #2301 closed escrow on Friday with a reported contract price of $1,340,000. Call it 39 percent ($861,500) below its 2008 purchase price which isn’t too bad considering the foreclosed upon two-bedroom the floor below sold for $1,050,000 this past March having been purchased for $2,173,000 in 2007 (a drop of 52 percent).
Live Like Tim Lincecum (Two Year $40.5M Contract Not Included)
As a plugged-in reader notes, the condo Tim Lincecum rented in 2010, and from which he was accused of stealing and destroying $200,000 worth of household items in 2011, has returned to the market listed for $1,795,000.
Having been listed for as much as $3,500,000 in 2008 but withdrawn from the market in 2010 last asking $1,700,000 prior to Lincecum's leasing, the current listing for the 2,790 square foot 141 Hampshire Street Unit B sports photos from its pre-Lincecum days.
Bonus points for identifying $200,000 worth of "bedding, doors, carpet, pillows, kitchenware, linens, furniture, household appliances, art work, decorations, patio furniture, lights, lamps, and mirrors" which could have been stolen or destroyed.
∙ Listing: 141 Hampshire Street Unit #B (3/3) 2,790 sqft - $1,795,000 [redfin.com]
∙ Inside Tim Lincecum's Old Party Pad (Pre-Alleged Trashing) [SocketSite]
∙ There Might Have Been Smoke, But No Report Of A Fire... [SocketSite]
January 27, 2012
Sorry Cardinal, But Let’s Hear It For The Blue And Gold...
As we first reported in 2010, a structural observation of the Willis Polk designed Hallidie Building at 130 Sutter Street determined it was "just a matter of time before portions of the façade supported by [deteriorating steel brackets] will fall off of the building."
A plan to rehabilitate the façade of the Hallidie Building and prevent its character-defining curtain wall from falling was approved eight months later, which includes a repainting.
While previous analysis and historic accounts had identified the original colors of the building to be Cal Blue and Gold, the Historic Preservation Commission requested additional investigation to determine the original scheme.
While the investigation determined that all decorative metals and balconies were originally gold leaf and only the curtain wall and ladders were blue, the proposed scheme differs slightly with blue for cornices and at the bottom of the balconies that were originally gold.
The proposed scheme "addresses current tastes and is similar to the scheme that has been associated with the building in recent history." And no, gold leaf will not be used.
∙ Heads-Up Near The Hallidie Building (130 Sutter) [SocketSite]
∙ Hallidie Building Color Investigation Report And Proposal [sfplanning.org]
Quintessential Noe Valley (And Price Per Square Foot Trend)
Having undergone a major remodel in 1999 following its purchase for $410,000 in 1998, the "quintessential renovated and expanded Noe Valley home" at 4245 23rd Street sold for $1,700,000 in September of 2004.
The 2,302 square foot four-bedroom, which is much larger and scarcer than the median neighborhood home, is now back on the market and listed for $1,795,000.
Although their records appear to be incomplete for 2011, if PropertyShark is to correct, the median sale price per square foot for 94114 single-family homes was $697 in 2004, peaked at $953 in 2008, dropped to $840 in 2010, and was $773 last year on median sized home sales of 1,360, 1,530, 1,512, and 1,650 square feet respectively.
Based on PropertyShark’s stats, the median neighborhood price per square foot is up 11 percent since 2004 having increased 37 percent from 2004 to 2008, dropping 19 percent from 2008 to 2011, and having dropped 8 percent from 2010.
Keep in mind that with a 21 percent increase in the size of the median home sold from 2004 to 2011, even if the price per square foot had dropped 20 percent the median price paid would have shown "appreciation," one of the reasons simply quoting changes in median or average sale price often misleads.
And yes, size matters when it comes to comparing price per square foot for homes.
∙ Listing: 4245 23rd Street (4/3) 2,302 sqft - $1,795,000 [4245-23rdst.com]
∙ Size Matters (At Least With Respect To Dollars Per Square Foot) [SocketSite]
Has The Fat Lady Sung For The Opera's Warehouse At 800 Indiana?
Contingent upon City approvals to develop the site, the San Francisco Opera has agreed to sell its set-construction warehouse at 800 Indiana Street to Archstone which has filed an application to build 350 units of housing on the site.
The opera’s building at 800 Indiana is a long, skinny parcel that stretches the length of two blocks between 20th and 22nd streets. Plans call for the property to be sliced in half, creating an "on-grade east-west plaza" where 21st Street would be if it didn’t dead-end 14 blocks to the west at San Francisco General Hospital.
The frontage of the complex would be further broken up by a series of courtyards. The five bottle-shaped courtyards are generally 50 feet wide, narrowing to 25 feet at the entrance.
Archstone has asked to build parking for 263 cars (and 350 bikes) and residents of Esprit Park should recognize the parcel as it runs the length of the development to the west.
∙ San Francisco Opera set-making site to become homes [San Francisco Business Times]
∙ Esprit Park Two Years Later, Apples-To-Apples Style [SocketSite]
Over Asking (But 24 Percent Below 2006) At The Watermark
As we reported last month:
Already $87,355 past due on a $652,000 loan by the time a notice of default was filed [in December of 2010], a past due amount which had grown to $115,828 this past July, last month 501 Beale #14E was finally taken back by the bank with no bidders at $477,000 in cash.
Purchased for $711,500 in April 2006, the Watermark one-bedroom has just returned to the market listed for $499,900, priced 30 percent below its comp setting sale in 2006.
The bank-owned but apples-to-apples sale of 501 Beale #14E closed escrow yesterday with a reported contract price of $542,000. Yes, that’s officially 8 percent "over asking" but still 24 percent ($169,500) below its value in 2006.
January 26, 2012
Shooting For A Record $3,000 Per Square In San Francisco
Listed for $4,900,000 in a very different condition back in 2008, 1170 Sacramento Street #19B (aka Penthouse B) sold to a local real estate agent for $3,125,000 in February 2009.
The 1,999 square foot unit (per tax records) underwent a complete transformation in 2010, and was rebuilt as a two-bedroom with truly luxurious finishes, design and flow.
Penthouse #B is now back on the market and listed for $6,000,000, just over $3,000 per square foot which would be an all-time record for a San Francisco property, we do believe.
∙ Listing: 1170 Sacramento #19B (2/2) 1,999 sqft - $6,000,000 [penthouse-b.com]
∙ A Peek Inside The Deconstructed Penthouse Atop 1170 Sacramento [SocketSite]
∙ The Shell Of The Northern Penthouse Atop 1170 Sacramento Sells [SocketSite]
U.S. New Home Sales: Down 7.3% In December Year-Over-Year
The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. fell to 307,000 in December, down 2.2 percent from a revised rate of 314,000 in November and 7.3 percent below the 331,000 pace recorded in December 2010.
Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in December were estimated to be 21,000 (give or take 9 percent), down 1,000 from November and the slowest December on record since 1963. December sales peaked in 2005 with 87,000 new homes sold.
In the West, the pace of new home sales was down 29.1 percent year-over-year to 73,000 in December, up 9.0 percent versus the month before.
∙ New Residential Sales: December 2011 [census.gov]
∙ New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]
∙ U.S. New Home Sales: Up 9.8% Year-Over-Year In November [SocketSite]
January 25, 2012
A Glimpse Inside "The Glint" And The Story Behind "The Mansion"
While not quite in the same league as the "Party of Eight" house up on Billionaires Row, a plugged-in reader recognizes "The Glint" (Peter Thiel's "hero accelerator in a mansion") to be 170 Saint Germain, in which Thiel's fellows now reside.
First listed for sale asking $4,500,000 last March, the 6,744 listed square foot home (per its last listing) was withdrawn from the market last asking $3,699,000 in November and then offered for rent at $15,000 per month.
∙ Party Of
Five Eight Move To San Francisco’s Billionaires Row [SocketSite]
∙ This San Francisco Mansion Is Where Peter Thiel's Genius Kids Party... [businessinsider]
∙ 170 Saint Germain: Before, After And A Peek Inside (Poke To Follow) [SocketSite]
∙ 170 Saint Germain: The Aforementioned Poke [SocketSite]
Expect An Exceptionally Low Federal Funds Rate Through Late 2014
"To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with [its] dual mandate, the [Federal Open Market Committee] expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014."
∙ Federal Open Market Committee Press Release: January 25, 2012 [federalreserve.gov]
A New New Kitchen, Fireplace, And Listing For 2400 Green Street
With a remodeled and reconfigured kitchen featuring Scavolini cabinetry, unfortunately the sale of 2400 Green Street won't be apples-to-apples as compared to January 2008 when the 4,500 square foot Pacific Heights home was purchased for $3,995,000.
As the then remodeled kitchen looked in early 2008:
A modern gas fireplace has also replaced the original wood burning one in the living room.
And having been on the market but off the MLS for a bit, 2400 Green Street is now official inventory having been listed for $3,900,000.
∙ Listing: 2400 Green (4/4.5) 4,500 sqft - $3,900,000 [2400green.com]
Actual San Francisco Foreclosures Flat QOQ, Up 3.8% YOY In Q4 2011
Actual Bay Area foreclosures in the fourth quarter fell 16.2% on a year-over-year basis (from 5,764 to 4,831) with Contra Costa (down 13.1% to 1,354), Alameda (down 23.8% to 1,038) and Santa Clara (down 20.3% to 718) leading the way with respect to volume.
Fourth quarter recorded foreclosures in San Francisco totaled 162, up 3.8% on a year-over-year basis, flat from the third quarter of 2011 versus a 21% drop across the Bay Area overall. While nominal, San Francisco was the only Bay Area county to record a year-over-year uptick in recorded fourth quarter foreclosures.
∙ California Foreclosure Activity Drops [DQNews]
∙ San Francisco Foreclosure Trends And 2011 And Retrospective [SocketSite]
Appeal Of America’s Cup Environmental Impact Report Rejected
Rejecting an appeal we didn’t expect to be successful, San Francisco’s Board of Supervisors has unanimously certified the Environmental Impact Report (EIR) required to move forward with the construction of venues for the 34th America's Cup in San Francisco.
The appeal was denied, with the proviso that there will be supplemental EIRs. I don't know how much this addresses the ambiguity and structural deficiency of the EIR--perhaps they should split it into a program EIR and a project EIR for those projects that are known to-date.
Key other points that were made included that the mitigation funding was based on an expected attendee size of X, whereas later impact analysis assumed 0.2X. No resolution was reached on who will pick up the tab if mitigation funding predictions turn out to be optimistic. The ACEA voluntarily backed down on the floating jumbotron in the aquatic park, and there was much rejoicing amongst the aquatic park users.
∙ Appealing The Impact Of The America's Cup In San Francisco [SocketSite]
∙ Comments, Responses And Revisions To The America’s Cup Draft EIR [SocketSite]
∙ Rendering Scoop: San Francisco's Major America’s Cup Venues [SocketSite]
January 24, 2012
A Perch From Which To Watch Boulders (Or Condos) Roll
Featuring big Coit Tower views and both indoor and outdoor perches from which to watch boulders (or condos) roll down Telegraph Hill, the 1,784 square foot condo #2202 at 611 Washington Street was purchased for $2,668,000 in June of 2007.
Built as a one, the now two-bedroom is back on the market and listed for $2,200,000, eighteen (18) percent below its 2007 sale.
And yes, we know the most recent boulders rolled down the other side of the Hill.
∙ Listing: 611 Washington (2/2) 1,784 sqft - $2,200,000 [611washington2202.com]
∙ Just Quotes: This Is (Going To Be) A Mess On Telegraph Hill [SocketSite]
It’s Time To Get Medieval On 1150 Monterey Boulevard
It’s not often we see listings for "Medieval" estates in San Francisco (although it does happen), but yesterday the 4,100 square foot Monterey Heights "fixer" at 1150 Monterey Boulevard hit the market as a short sale listed for $1,400,000.
How does a home with a tax assessed value of $127,816 get listed as a short sale for $1,400,000? Well, in January 2006 a first mortgage for $1,500,000 was written on the property and was quickly followed by a second for $150,000 that February.
If you’re interested in the short sale you better act fast, however, for while not noted on the listing by the agent, a notice of default was filed against the first mortgage with $212,570 past due as of this past September and a foreclosure auction for 1150 Monterey Boulevard is currently scheduled for the courthouse steps in San Francisco this Thursday.
And while the current listing for the property on the MLS doesn’t offer any peeks inside, an old listing does, but get 'em while you can.
UPDATE (1/25): According to the listing agent, "We have postponed the foreclosure date to facilitate the short sale." As always, we'll keep you posted and plugged-in.
∙ Another $150,000 Flushed At Albion Castle (881 Innes Avenue) [SocketSite]
The LAPD Tells Realtors To Buzz Off
A plugged-in tipster forwards an alert from the California Association of Realtors warning its members not to hire or fly unmanned aircraft to capture aerial photographs for the marketing of high-end properties.
[A] Los Angeles Police Department's (LAPD) investigation has…revealed that aerial photos where unmanned aircraft were observed have appeared on certain real estate sales websites. According to FilmL.A., the LAPD Air Division has issued [a] warning as it intends to prosecute violators in the near future.
Under the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)'s current policy, no one can operate an unmanned aircraft in the National Airspace System without specific authority. Operators who wish to fly an unmanned aircraft for civil use must obtain an FAA experimental airworthiness certificate, which will not be issued to an unmanned aircraft used for compensation or hire. Although the FAA allows hobbyists to fly model airplanes for recreational purposes under specific guidelines, that authority does not extend to operators flying unmanned aircraft for business purposes.
In the words of our industry tipster, "I don’t know if any 'drones' have buzzed the SF skyline to shoot films yet, but…agents up here have talked about trying it."