December 23, 2011

U.S. New Home Sales: Up 9.8% Year-Over-Year In November

The seasonally adjusted annual pace of new single-family home sales in the U.S. increased to 315,000 in November, up 1.6 percent from a revised rate of 310,000 in October and 9.8 percent above the 287,000 pace recorded in November 2010.

Preliminary U.S. new home sales (versus pace) in November were estimated to be 22,000 (give or take 8 percent), down 3,000 from October and the second slowest November on record. November sales peaked in 2005 with 86,000 new homes sold.

In the West, the pace of new home sales was up 1.5 percent year-over-year to 69,000 in November, down 16.9 percent versus the month before.

New Residential Sales: November 2011 [census.gov]
New Residential Sales Since 1963 [census.gov]
U.S. New Home Sales: Up 8.9% Year-Over-Year In October [SocketSite]

First Published: December 23, 2011 7:45 AM

Comments from "Plugged In" Readers

So horrible, but better then last year. Yet another indicator that can be used by both bulls and bears to hammer away at each other.

Posted by: Rillion at December 23, 2011 9:22 AM

I assume the buyers in November were trying to get out in front of the additional fees that get tacked onto mortgages, perpetually starting today, in exchange for 60 whopping days worth of reduced social security tax payments, driving up the costs of loans.

Incomes are falling at a fairly dramatic rate, so I can only assume this was a speed up to avoid the higher fees on loans.

From today's personal income report:

"Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $7.1 billion in November, in contrast to an increase
of $37.2 billion in October. Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $6.7 billion, in contrast
to an increase of $8.6 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $6.9 billion, in contrast to an increase
of $6.8 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls decreased $0.3 billion, in contrast to an
increase of $28.5 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements increased $0.1 billion in
November, the same increase as in October."

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm

Wages took a big hit. People are losing high paying jobs and taking lower paying jobs. That makes the unemployment rate look like it's improving, but obviously incomes are not improving. Therefore, the increase was likely driven by the mortgage fees.

Posted by: tipster at December 23, 2011 10:39 AM

yes, a bunch of people closed on houses in november to get in front of a fee that no one heard about until it was proposed in early December. What I want to know is why didn't any of these people say something about this fee so that the real estate lobbiests and the wall street journal could have started complaining about it sooner then December 8th to 10th?

Perhaps there should be an investigation because clearly a bunch of people were using non-public information to buy houses.

Posted by: Rillion at December 23, 2011 3:26 PM

Tipster: "Wages took a big hit."

In October wages increased $37.2 Billion. In November "wages took a big hit" and decreased $7.1 billion. Two month net is a "big hit" of $30.1 billion increase in wages.

Two month net increase is $30.1 Billion, Tipster's spin = "incomes are not improving", "Incomes are falling at a fairly dramatic rate"

I wish my income "fell" at that rate over two months.

Posted by: Rillion at December 23, 2011 3:33 PM

Wow, I just read the report Tipster linked and I have to applaud Tipster for having huge balls. I think I also figured out who Tipster is, he is the same person that wrote that Romney ad that pulled Obama's McCain quote out of context.

First line of the report: "Personal income increased $8.5 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI)
decreased $5.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in November"

So Tipster cherry-picks the 'wage' portion, ignoring that overall incomes increased in the month, and also characterizes it as falling at a "dramatic rate" when the fact is that it means on average all workers salery fell about $45 bucks after increasing $231 the month before. Incomes have risen in four of the last five months. The "rate" of the November decrease in wages is likely in the area of a decrease of 0.1% or 0.2%, but overall income was still up in November by 0.1.

Posted by: Rillion at December 23, 2011 3:46 PM

Mortgage fees just went up? Crud, I am in the middle of a re-fi.

Posted by: NoeValleyJim at December 23, 2011 5:13 PM

Twister is outdoing himself. There's no dot he can't reach with his stretchy gummy limbs.

Posted by: lol at December 23, 2011 5:35 PM

Tipster's gone from a fairly interesting poster on here to an absolute cartoon. No doubt he/she has got to be the ultimate downer at any cocktail party.

Never come across a person who wants everything to suck so bad.

Posted by: Longtime Lurker at December 24, 2011 10:55 AM

two thousand and twelve
is going to start next week
panic? breadlines? no.

Posted by: [anon.ed] at December 24, 2011 2:07 PM

There are no bread lines any more. Bad optics = bad politics. They've been replaced by food stamps:

http://www.dailyjobsupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/Food-Stamps-Monthly.jpg

5.5 years into what may well end up being the worst 10 years in housing history and still pretending all is well. Good show fluj.

Posted by: tony at December 29, 2011 12:33 PM

Tony, just posting that link might have been a little terse. Let me help you assist [anon.ed] in understanding.

From cnn.com in April, Record number of Americans get government help:

One in six Americans is receiving help from the government, just as fiscal austerity threatens to reduce some of that aid.

Soaring unemployment during The Great Recession has driven tens of millions of people to the dole. Enrollment in Medicaid and food stamp programs are at record highs, while unemployment insurance rolls remain at elevated levels. Many people depend on more than one program…The number of people in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as food stamps, hit a record 44.2 million in January. That's up 4.7 million from the prior year…one in seven Americans receive food stamps, the highest share of the population ever to do so…Still, one in three people who are eligible for food stamps is not receiving them.
Emphasis added. So that's why you're not going to see bread lines, but the fact that bread lines aren't widely visible doesn't mean that people aren't suffering. We've made some progress since the thirties.

Posted by: Brahma (incensed renter) at December 29, 2011 1:24 PM

The safety net is a wonderful, civil advancement (not that it couldn't be stronger). It is what has kept the Great Recession from becoming the Great Depression II.

Posted by: A.T. at December 29, 2011 2:51 PM

you guys are funny. Can't let old anon.ed write an end of the year haiku without trying to parse his words, as if his "breadlines" was the first time that has been used on here.

Posted by: sparky-b at December 29, 2011 3:20 PM

You mean I didn't
Coin the very term, "breadlines"?
Drawing board return

Posted by: anon.ed at December 29, 2011 4:03 PM

Also, brahma, trust
That I didn't read any
Of your pedantry

Posted by: anon.ed at December 29, 2011 4:20 PM

Correct, no breadlines
At least not literally
Thus all must be well

Posted by: A.T. at December 29, 2011 4:34 PM

"All must be well" ? No.
Paraphrase? Even in this
Format? Beyond trite.

Posted by: anon.ed at December 29, 2011 4:52 PM

"panic? breadlines? no."
what I meant by that was, err,
who knows? But you're trite.

Posted by: A.T. at December 29, 2011 6:45 PM

"I know you are but
What am I" was your response?
Wow. Worse than I thought.

Posted by: anon.ed at December 29, 2011 7:29 PM

Just accept it anon.ed, if you say "its not that cold in here" they will accuse you of saying "its as hot as the surface of the sun in here".

Posted by: Rillion at December 30, 2011 9:34 AM

Enduring false dawns
Don't look behind the curtain
Winter's just started

Posted by: diemos at December 31, 2011 2:09 PM

Winds of winter, black wings black words. Says Grand Maester Diemos.

Posted by: sparky-b at December 31, 2011 6:33 PM

You have ever been a herald of woe. Troubles follow you like crows, and ever the oftener the worse … Here you come again! And with you come evils worse than before, as might be expected. Why should I welcome you, Gandalf Stormcrow? Tell me that.

Posted by: diemos at January 1, 2012 10:18 AM

I was going for a Song of ice and fire and not LOTR, but it works.

Posted by: sparky-b at January 1, 2012 7:55 PM

The Two Towers: Mithrinir (Sparky) v. Curunir (Diemos)

Posted by: [anon.ed] at January 1, 2012 9:02 PM

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