According to the September 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.5% from August ’11 to September ’11, down 5.9% year-over-year (versus a 5.3% YoY drop in August), the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year declines and down 39.0% from a peak in May 2006.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.4% from August to September, down 3.3% year-over-year and down 31.2% from a June 2006 peak.
“Three cities posted new index lows in September 2011 – Atlanta, Las Vegas and Phoenix. Seventeen of the 20 cities and both Composites were down for the month. Over the last year home prices in most cities drifted lower. The plunging collapse of prices seen in 2007-2009 seems to be behind us. Any chance for a sustained recovery will probably need a stronger economy.”
“Detroit and Washington DC posted positive annual rates of change and also saw an improvement in these rates compared to August. Only New York, Portland and Washington DC posted positive monthly returns versus August. It is a bit disturbing that we saw three cities post new crisis lows. For the prior three or four months, only Las Vegas was weakening each month. Now Atlanta and Phoenix have fallen to new lows too. On a monthly basis, Atlanta actually posted a record low rate of -5.9% in September over August. The markets are fairly thin, and the relative lack of closed transactions might be exacerbating the downside.”
On a month-over-month basis, prices fell across all three Francisco MSA price tiers which remain down on a year-over-year basis for the tenth month in a row.
The bottom third (under $320,010 at the time of acquisition) fell 2.2% from August to September (down 9.5% YOY); the middle third fell 1.1% from August to September (down 10.1% YOY); and the top third (over $603,426 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.9% from August to September, down 3.1% year-over-year (versus down 2.3% in August).
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have dropped below May 2000 levels having fallen 60% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has dropped below March 2002 levels having fallen 41% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has dropped below February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.3% from August ’11 to September ’11, down 8.7% year-over-year, down 33.9% from a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Home Prices Weaken as the Third Quarter Ends [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: Prices Relatively Flat In August [SocketSite]