According to the August 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell a nominal 0.1% from July ’11 to August ’11 but remain down 5.3% year-over-year (versus a 5.6% YoY drop in July), the eigth consecutive month of year-over-year declines and down 38.1% from a peak in May 2006.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values increased a nominal 0.1% from July to August, down 3.5% year-over-year, down 30.9% from a June 2006 peak.
“In the August data, the good news is continued improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices. In spring and summer’s seasonally strong period for housing demand, we cautioned that monthly increases in prices had to be paired with improvement in annual rates before anyone could declare that the market might be stabilizing. With 16 of 20 cities and both Composites seeing their annual rates of change improve in August, we see a modest glimmer of hope with these data. As of August 2011, the crisis low for the 10-City Composite was back in April 2009; whereas it was a more recent March 2011 for the 20-City Composite. Both are about 3.9% above their relative lows.
“The Midwest is one region that really stands out in terms of recent relative strength. Chicago, Detroit and Minneapolis have all posted very sharp monthly increases going back to May. These markets were some of the weakest during the crisis, particularly Detroit. But as of August 2011, Detroit is the healthiest when viewed on an annual basis. It is up 2.7% versus August 2010. Prices there are still back to their 1995 levels, but the recent pickup in the US auto industry may finally be helping.”
On a month-over-month basis, prices fell across the bottom and middle San Francisco MSA price tiers and were unchanged for the top. On a year-over-year basis, however, values remained down across all three tiers.
The bottom third (under $321,866 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.5% from July to August (down 8.0% YOY); the middle third fell 0.7% from July to August (down 9.6% YOY); and the top third (over $608,109 at the time of acquisition) was unchanged, down 2.3% year-over-year.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have dropped below June 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third remains below April 2002 levels having fallen 41% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third remains at February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell a nominal 0.2% from July ’11 to August ’11, down 9.0% year-over-year, down 33.0% from a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Annual Rates of Change Continue to Improve [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: SFH’s Moderate, Condos Fall In July [SocketSite]