According to the July 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA increased a nominal 0.3% from June ’11 to July ’11 but remain down 5.6% year-over-year (YOY), the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year declines, down 38.1% from a peak in May 2006.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values increased 0.9% from June to July but remain down 3.7% year-over-year, down 31.0% from a June 2006 peak.
“With July’s data we are seeing not only anticipated monthly increases, but some fairly broad improvement in the annual rates of change in home prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “This is still a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are expected and were seen in 17 of the 20 cities. The exceptions were Las Vegas and Phoenix where prices fell, while Denver was flat. The better news is that 14 of 20 cities and both Composites saw their annual rates of change improve in July.”
“While we have now seen four consecutive months of generally increasing prices, we do know that we are still far from a sustained recovery. Eighteen of the 20 cities and both Composites are showing that home prices are still below where they were a year ago. The 10-City Composite is down 3.7% and the 20-City is down 4.1% compared to July 2010. Continued increases in home prices through the end of the year and better annual results must materialize before we can confirm a housing market recovery.”
On a month-over-month basis, prices rose across the top and bottom San Francisco MSA price tiers, falling in the middle. On a year-over-year basis, however, values remained down across all three tiers.
The bottom third (under $319,938 at the time of acquisition) increased 0.8% from June to July (down 7.9% YOY); the middle third fell 1.0% from June to July (down 10.1% YOY); and the top third (over $601,361 at the time of acquisition) ticked up 0.5% from June to July but remains down 2.9% year-over-year.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have returned to June 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third remains just below April 2002 levels having fallen 40% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third remains at February 2004 levels having fallen 25% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.1% from June ’11 to July ’11, down 9.4% year-over-year versus a 6.8% YoY drop in July, down 32.9% from a December 2005 peak.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Home Prices Continue to Show Seasonal Strength [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller San Francisco: SFH’s Tick Up, Condos Down In June [SocketSite]