Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco fell 5.9 percent over the past two weeks to 1,504 active listings. Over the past five years, listed inventory levels in San Francisco have dropped an average of 1 percent from the middle of June to beginning of July.
Current listed inventory is down 16 percent on a year-over-year basis, up 3 percent versus the average of the past five years, up 16 percent as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is down 7 percent year-over-year to 630 listings while listed condo inventory is down 16 percent to 874.
The percentage of active listings in San Francisco that have undergone at least one price reduction ticked up one point to 37% as the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (92) or seeking a short sale (223) ticked up a point to 21 percent, unchanged on an absolute basis over the past two weeks.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: June 20, 2011 [SocketSite]
Hmmm . . . How far do inventory levels have to decline before a prospective seller’s thinking shifts from “I better sell now before I risk further losses.” to “I think I’ll wait just a bit longer to see if conditions improve.”?
June MLS sales were basically flat (down just a bit but probably about even once late entries are made) from a slow 2010 and pendings are flat YOY. So look for sales to continue to be on the sluggish side in the months ahead. 21% of listings are distressed and 37% have at least one reductions, and sales are slow. Yet inventory remains lower than one would expect with those other indicators, although still quite high. Looks like we’re in a slow, sideways period.
Looks like we’re in a slow, sideways period.
indeed. Although it is positive for RE valuations that inventory is falling at this time as fast as it is.
hard to figure out “normal” in SF, which is such a boom-bust market, but one could argue that we are near the mythical “normal” level. Not as low of inventory as during bubble years, not as high as during major bust years.
overall a pretty positive report IMO.
I thought saleswere falling off a cliff according to projections from one day sales from Redfin, or somewhere…?
either way,inventory levels closer to 2006 than 2010 has to be good news, and surely far better than most would have expected.
Inventory being low is good for sellers, but bad for buyers.
Problem is that it’s a lagging metric–by at least a few months.
Pent up supply appears to be holding steady over the past two weeks. Currently, 1478 homes are in some state of foreclosure (NODs, NOTS, bank owned) in Ess Eff. This is compared to 1487 homes two weeks ago. Standard disclosures about noise in the data; information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
@anon: Curious as to why you say inventory levels are a lagging metric. Seems to me if anything it’s a leading metric. High inventories means too much supply and generally precede price drops. Low inventories mean not enough supply and generally predict firmer prices. Of course it all depends on where you are on the demand curve, but in general this should hold true. I would say we are very low on the demand curve these days, so you could have low inventory and still see price drops as the adjustment to equilibrium in housing is v e r r r r r y slow.
Anyone who bought at the top would rather avoid selling right now, which could explain some of the constraints on inventory.
Anyone who bought at the top, at the bottom and at any point in between would rather avoid selling right now and wishes they had sold in 2006/2007.
Numberes don’t lie…..
short sales are how people who bought at the top of the market are dealing with selling now. 15% of all listings are short sales so that alleviates a lot of the “constraint”.
it’s impossible to tell what “normal” is when the this data only goes back to 2006. but this is probably the new normal and maybe even the old normal.
Busy day for new listings – 108 today (per redfin), which seems high for this time of year (maybe not, but seems like July 4 to Labor Day is usually not that busy). 43 sales in the last week (178 listings in the last 7 days).
This chart will be interesting to follow in the next couple months.