Inventory of listed single-family homes, condos, and TICs in San Francisco dropped 1% over the past three weeks to 1,562 active listings, right in line with the average drop of 1% for the same three weeks over the past five years.
Current listed inventory is down 3% on a year-over-year basis, up 11% versus the average of the past five years, and up 36% as compared to an average of 2006 and 2007. The inventory of single-family homes for sale in San Francisco is down 3% on a year-over-year basis to 631 listings while listed condo inventory is down 9% to 931.
The percentage of active listings in San Francisco that have undergone at least one price reduction ticked up two points to 36% as the percentage of active listings that are either already bank owned (88) or seeking a short sale (200) ticked up one point to 18%, up 7% on an absolute basis over the past three weeks.
The standard SocketSite Listed Inventory footnote: Keep in mind that our listed inventory count does not include listings in any stage of contract (even those which are simply contingent) nor does it include listings for multi-family properties (unless the units are individually listed).
∙ San Francisco Listed Housing Inventory Update: May 16, 2011 [SocketSite]
What is your source? I ask because per the SFARMLS current inventory is 1439. SFR’s are 551 of that. REO’s are 77. Short sales 169.
I’m wondering about the source of this data as well. Also, I believe it is more valuable to look at the TOTAL # of properties for sale during the month instead of just picking a specific date during the month. This tends to smooth out some of the noise.
For instance, in May 2010 there were 2,732 total properties for sale and in May 2011 it was 2,425 or drop of 11% and April YoY was about the same drop. Supply is trending down when you graph out trailing 12 months.
If you look at properties going in to contract you see spike in April 2010 for tax credits expiring with 596 versus 532 in April 2011. However, it you look at March and May YoY you go from 514 to 558 and 443 to 602, which is up 35% YoY for May. It will be interesting to see how the full Q2 comes out, but it looks like demand is trending up a bit.
Also, median pricing is up $50k for April and May combined versus Q1-2011 for both SFR and Condos to respectively $800k and $750k, which puts us back on the average trend line since Q2-2009. This can likely be attributed to some combination of percentage of distressed sales dropping from peak in February of 25.9% of all sales to 15.7% in May, which is more inline with average of all of 2010 plus the fact that $/SF is also trending up a bit (10%) over Q1.
Anyway, you need to look at the bigger trends and not just a couple of months of data, but I do see SF values holding much better than the rest of the 5 county area as reported by Case-Shiller Index. In fact, I don’t believe we have actually seen a double dip in SF and especially in non-distressed properties. I’m looking to buy right now so I actually wish the market was a bit softer.
There is surprising resiliency in the SF market. I think we hold solid through the elections and maybe see some downer months here and there. Post election (e.g., 2013) will be the real test as to whether the next 5 years will be better or worse.
CoreLogic produces what I believe to be Case-Shiller methodology prices but also excluding distressed sales.I believe they showed non distressed sales to be holding pretty well (haven;’t researched the data in detail yet).
So, of course, SF where distressed sales are lower will inevitably do better – even,I believe compared to the oft-proposed top tier proxy.
Some thoughts:
There is light at the end of the tunnel.
A weakening dollar will help prices as foreigners start to buy with their stronger currencies, especially because of our better weather.
The price declines are mostly limited to low cost areas: people who have money don’t have to sell. People who have money always want to buy. Prices here are actually resilient to declines.
The statistics are from a larger area and don’t apply to this submarket.
Things are starting to look up.
Sound familiar? Although these are “some thoughts”, they aren’t *my* thoughts. They are the thoughts of a realtor. In a suburb of Phoenix. In 2008.
Prices have fallen there 20% since he wrote this. I found his blog posting last night and he pulled it down this morning. This is the google cache:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:ogCfgrCGPYgJ:www.buzzle.com/articles/good-news-in-phoenix-real-estate.html+http://www.buzzle.com/articles/good-news-in-phoenix-real-estate.html&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a&source=www.google.com
Prices have largely fallen 20% in San Francisco since he wrote that too. What’s the point?
CoreLogic data for April (Three month weighted average) took a sharp positive turn both with and without distressed.
For the SF MSA the 6 month change of +0.79% compared to -5.92% for March. Excluding distressed April came in at +6.57% compared to -1.02% for April!!
http://www.corelogic.com/uploadedFiles/Pages/About_Us/ResearchTrends/CoreLogic%20HPI%20Monthly%20Marketing%20Data%20April%202011WEB(1).pdf
Distressed includes short sales and REO’s which compete for buyers with “normal” sales. So, while the non-distressed data is interesting, its not clear that it is a better indication then the overall numbers.
Regardless, previous distressed-included market data showed a SF double dip with a sharp downslope with this release showing marked change.
Well, here are a couple of real-world examples of what is going on in SF:
SFR (w/ cottage) just closed below the 2000 sale price:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/341-27th-Ave-94121/home/2021169
And a perfectly nice Lake SFR that just closed at a notch above the 2000 price (and 24% below the 2005 price):
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/180-18th-Ave-94121/home/603776
I suppose 2000 prices, as compared to the 1997 prices in some neighboring areas, is surprising resiliency in the SF market, but as I have often said, there are only degrees of bad around here. Even the strong points are seeing about 2004 price levels, and that’s ignoring inflation. Yep, there are isolated exceptions, but there are countless illustrations of the rule. “Not catastrophically bad” is not the same thing as “good.”
@A.T.:”Well, here are a couple of real-world examples of what is going on in SF…”
Actually, what you have posted is exactly what happened (is going on) on those two properties, that is all.
Here’s some more pent up supply; it looks like the second time around for 2140 Pine. It was first foreclosed and resold in 2006 and now has a date on the courthouse steps on June 9. Approximately 2800 sq.ft. converted (but not approved) from 2 units to a SFH (see DBI website).
Pent up supply appears to have dipped slightly over the past month. Currently, 1479 homes are in some state of foreclosure (NODs, NOTS, bank owned) in Ess Eff. This is compared to 1523 homes a month ago. Standard disclosures about noise in the data; information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.