According to the March 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell a nominal 0.1% from February ’11 to March ’11, down 40.6% from a peak in May 2006 and down 5.1% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis, a steady slide from the 18.3% gain reported last May and the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.7% from February to March, down 33.0% from a June 2006 peak as values fell 2.9% year-over-year.
“This month’s report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation. The National Index, the 20-City Composite and 12 MSAs all hit new lows with data reported through March 2011. The National Index fell 4.2% over the first quarter alone, and is down 5.1% compared to its year-ago level. Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Since December 2010, we have found an increasing number of markets posting new lows. In March 2011, 12 cities – Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR) and Tampa – fell to their lowest levels as measured by the current housing cycle. Washington D.C. was the only MSA displaying positive trends with an annual growth rate of +4.3% and a 1.1% increase from its February level.
“The rebound in prices seen in 2009 and 2010 was largely due to the first-time home buyers tax credit. Excluding the results of that policy, there has been no recovery or even stabilization in home prices during or after the recent recession. Further, while last year saw signs of an economic recovery, the most recent data do not point to renewed gains.
While prices continued to fall across the bottom two price tiers, prices for the top third of San Francisco MSA single-family homes increased 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in March, the first gain in ten months. That being said, on a year-over-year basis, values fell across all three price tiers for the fourth time in four months.
The bottom third (under $312,546 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.9% from February to March (down 5.5% YOY); the middle third fell 1.5% from February to March (down 7.5% YOY); and the top third (over $573,577 at the time of acquisition) ticked up 0.7% from February to March, down 3.0% on a year-over-year basis.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have fallen back to May 2000 levels having fallen 59% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has fallen to below March 2002 levels having fallen 41% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has returned to December 2003 levels having fallen 27% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA increased 2.6% from February ’11 to March ’11, down 1.9% year-over-year, but the first month-over-month uptick in seven months. Condo values remain down 33.0% from a December 2005 peak but have reversed a two month “double dip” and 34.7% drop from peak recorded in February.
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: National Home Prices Hit New Low in 2011 [Standard & Poor's]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Value Decline Accelerated In Feb [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]
∙ San Francisco’s Condo “Double Dip” Is (Or Was) Here [SocketSite]