According to the January 2011 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.8% from December ’10 to January ’11, down 38.9% from a peak in May 2006 and down 1.7% on a year-over-year (YOY) basis, a steady slide from the 18.3% gain reported this past May and the second consecutive YOY decline since October 2009.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 1.0% from December to January, down 31.7% from a June 2006 peak as values fell 2.0% year-over-year.
“Keeping with the trends set in late 2010, January brings us weakening home prices with no real hope in sight for the near future” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “With this month’s data, we find the same 11 MSAs posting new recent index lows. The 10-City and 20- City Composites continue to decline month-over-month and have posted monthly declines for six consecutive months now.
“These data confirm what we have seen with recent housing starts and sales reports. The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery. At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing. A few months ago we defined a double-dip for home prices as seeing the 10- and 20-City Composites set new post-peak lows. The 10-City Composite is still 2.8% above and the 20-City is 1.1% above their respective April 2009 lows, but both series have moved closer to a confirmed double-dip for six consecutive months. At this point we are not too far off, and that is what many analysts are seeing with sales, starts and inventory data too.
For the sixth time in six months prices fell on a month-over-month basis across all three price tiers for San Francisco MSA single-family homes. And for the third time in three months, home values fell on a year-over-year basis for San Francisco’s top two price tiers.
The bottom third (under $327,921 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.8% from December to January (down 2.3% YOY); the middle third fell 2.3% from December to January (down 3.1% YOY); and the top third (over $602,297 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.2% from December to January, down 1.5% on a year-over-year basis.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have fallen back to June 2000 levels having fallen 58% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third has fallen to just above April 2002 levels having fallen 39% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has retreated to just above January 2004 levels having fallen 26% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.9% from December ’10 to January ’11 for a 6.5% drop in value year-over-year (down 33.3% from December 2005).
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: Home Prices Off to a Dismal Start in 2011 [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ S&P/Case-Shiller: San Francisco Home Values Dropped In December [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]