According to the November 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.2% from October ’10 to November ’10, down 37.2% from a peak in May 2006 and down to a negligible 0.4% year-over-year (YOY) gain, a steady slide from the 18.3% gain reported this past May and down from 2.2% in October.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 0.8% from October to November, down 30.3% from a June 2006 peak as values fell 0.4% year-over-year.
“With these numbers more analysts will be calling for a double-dip in home prices. Let’s take a moment to define a double-dip as seeing the 10- and 20-City Composites set new post-peak lows. The series are now only 4.8% and 3.3% above their April 2009 lows, suggesting that a double-dip could be confirmed before Spring. Certainly eight cities setting new lows, and with the only positive news concentrated in southern California and Washington DC, the data point to weakness in home prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.
“With an annual growth rate of +3.5% in November, Washington DC was the strongest market, but still well below the +7.7% annual rate of growth seen in May 2010. The only city with a gain in November was San Diego, up a scant 0.1%. While San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco are still ahead from November 2009, their annual rates are shrinking in recent months.”
For the fourth time in four months prices fell on a month-over-month basis across all three price tiers for San Francisco MSA single-family homes. And for the first time in a year, home values fell on a year-over-year basis for San Francisco’s top two price tiers.
The bottom third (under $340,128 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.6% from October to November (up 1.6% YOY); the middle third fell 1.1% from October to November (down 1.9% YOY); and the top third (over $620,966 at the time of acquisition) fell 0.6% from October to November, down 0.6% on a year-over-year basis.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have fallen back below September 2000 levels having fallen 57% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back below June 2002 levels having fallen 37% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has retreated back below March 2004 levels having fallen 24% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 0.8% from October ’10 to November ’10 for a 4.5% drop in value year-over-year (down 30.6% from December 2005).
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening as Eight Cities Reach New Lows [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ San Francisco (MSA) Home Value Slide Accelerates In October [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]