According to the October 2010 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, single-family home prices in the San Francisco MSA fell 1.9% from September ’10 to October ’10, down 36.4% from a peak in May 2006 and down to a 2.2% year-over-year (YOY) gain, a steady slide from the 18.3% gain reported this past May and down from 5.5% in September.
For the broader 10-City composite (CSXR), home values fell 1.4% from September to October, down 29.7% from a June 2006 peak as the year-over-year gain slipped to 0.2%.
The double-dip is almost here, as six cities set new lows for the period since the 2006 peaks. There is no good news in October’s report. Home prices across the country continue to fall.” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s.
“The trends we have seen over the past few months have not changed. The tax incentives are over and the national economy remained lackluster in October, the month covered by these data. Existing homes sales and housing starts have been reported for both October and November, and neither is giving any sense of optimism.
On a year-over-year basis, sales are down more than 25% and the months’ supply of unsold homes is about 50% above where it was during the same months of last year. Housing starts are still hovering near 30-year lows. While delinquency rates might have seen some recent improvement, it is only on a relative basis. They are still well above their historic averages, in both the prime and sub-prime markets.
For the second time in three months prices fell on a month-over-month basis across all three price tiers for San Francisco MSA single-family homes.
The bottom third (under $342,388 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.4% from September to October (up 4.6% YOY); the middle third fell 2.2% from September to October (up 0.4% YOY); and the top third (over $624,623 at the time of acquisition) fell 1.3% from September to October for a negligible 0.1% YOY gain.
According to the Index, single-family home values for the bottom third of the market in the San Francisco MSA have fallen back to September 2000 levels having fallen 57% from a peak in August 2006, the middle third is back to June 2002 levels having fallen 36% from a peak in May 2006, and the top third has retreated to March 2004 levels having fallen 24% from a peak in August 2007.
Condo values in the San Francisco MSA fell 3.4% from September ’10 to October ’10 for 3.4% drop in value year-over-year (down 30.0% from December 2005).
Our standard SocketSite S&P/Case-Shiller footnote: The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices include San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa, and Alameda in the “San Francisco” index (i.e., greater MSA) and are imperfect in factoring out changes in property values due to improvements versus appreciation (although they try their best).
∙ U.S. Home Prices Weaken Further as Six Cities Make New Lows [Standard & Poor’s]
∙ September Case-Shiller: San Francisco MSA Slide Continues [SocketSite]
∙ May Case-Shiller: San Francisco Tiers Up But Gains Moderating Atop [SocketSite]
∙ Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension For Closing (Not Contract) Date [SocketSite]
∙ Existing U.S. Home Sales Pace Up 5.6%, Down 27.9% Year-Over-Year [SocketSite]